The plan has both Joba and Hughes in the rotation
ByWe learned a lot about Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain in 2009. They both went through ups and downs during the season, so we got to see them at their best and at their worst. That can tell you a lot about a player, but you’ll never get the whole story from just one season, especially for pitchers as young as those two. The main takeaway is that both can succeed at the major league level. Whether that is in the rotation or in the bullpen remains a question, and will be until they prove where they’re best situated.
I’ve always taken the stance that a starting rotation should consist of the team’s five best pitchers — that is, pitchers capable of starting baseball games. If Joba and Hughes are among the Yankees’ five best options, they should be in the rotation. Given their potential, there’s a good chance that they’re in that top five. If not, a spot will eventually open. The best strategy, then, is to assume that they’re starters and then assess in Spring Training. According to Peter Gammons, this is exactly what they’ll do.
“They can always go from starting to the bullpen, but it’s tough going the other way,” says Brian Cashman.
This statement is not groundbreaking. The Yankees prefer to have pitchers prepare as starters and then convert them when necessary. They did it in 2007 with Scott Protor, and did it again last year with Phil Coke. There is no surprise, then, that they will have Chamberlain and Hughes prepare as starters. Why pigeonhole them now, when they could ultimately be one of the team’s top five starters?
Still, the Yankees will assess all of their options in the rotation. In fact, it’s probably the most important item on the off-season docket.
“I think the first thing you have to address is our rotation,” Girardi said. “Right now if you looked at our starters you’d say that we have two starters for sure and then you have a mix of some other guys, so I think that’s probably the first thing that we have to address. But I think that’s probably first on everyone’s list, pitching.”
Pitching always comes first, and the Yankees learned that lesson in recent years. It’s why they got the top two guys on the last free agent market, and why they’re trying to develop high-ceiling arms in the minors. Just because it’s first on everyone’s list, however, doesn’t mean that the team will necessarily sign John Lackey or trade for Roy Halladay. It just means that they understand the importance of pitching, and will consider any move that makes the rotation stronger in 2010 and beyond.
(Which, of course, could include signing Lackey or trading for Halladay.)
Do the Yankees have a contingency plan for the bullpen should both Hughes and Joba break camp in the rotation? I guess that depends on your definition of contingency plan. Buster Olney thinks that the Yanks will pursue “two relievers, in all likelihood.” Why they’d do this, I don’t know. Again, we’ve learned the lessons of free agent relievers over the past few years, and with a number of in-house options, bringing in a middle reliever, or even a closer who will pose as a setup man, seems to be a luxury item rather than a necessity. That’s what Cashman says.
“We have guys knocking on the door from the minor leagues, and it’s always easy to take a starter and make him into a reliever – I think we’re good at that,” Cashman joked. “Is it an area of obvious need? No. You’ve got to look more at the rotation and left field.”
The Yankees have a lot of pitchers, and many of them could factor into the rotation and bullpen plans for 2010. That affords them the luxury of choosing only the players they see fit. If they like the cut of John Lackey’s jib, they can bring him aboard. If they don’t like something about him, they can let it go and wait until next off-season. The team is in a good position now, even though some of the rotation spots are nominally unsettled.
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If the Toronto Bluejays can be successful with the starting pitching staff (not named Halladay) they put out there at the beginning of the 2009 season…I think Hughes and Chamberlain can hopefully do that much better.
That’s a great fallback plan. Joba yr. 2 should be a solid bet to turn in a 4.00 ERA; not hazardous to his future as a starter, but probably not good enough to snuff out to-teh-pen discussion. IMO, Hughes has the higher ceiling b/c his curve is better than Joba’s slider.
But its a fallback plan.
Offer Anthopolous one of Joba or Hughes followed by Z-Mac, Arodys, and C-level prospect. See what happens, but no Ajax or Montero.
If they’ll take Ajax INSTEAD of Hughes or Joba…then you absolutely do it. But I absolutely highly doubt it more than almost anything in the world right now.
i don’t see how Hughes has the higher ceiling than Joba. Joba doesn’t really HAVE a ceiling, that’s how good his stuff is.
i do think Hughes is probably more likely to hit his ceiling though.
Jobas stuff is electric. While in the pen. When did you ever see the same stuff when he started?
His fastball was pedestrian. His slider wasnt thrown for strikes.
His curve and change were rarely used.
It’s November 23rd and I believe the Chamberlain/Hughes-rotations/bullpen talk has officially jumped the shark. Or least it’s become incredibly tedious.
OF COURSE they’re going to be referred to and prepare in the spring as starters, for ALL the reasons cited above but also because it maximizes their MARKET VALUE, which even if you genuinely intend to keep/development them is always a good thing.
A potential stud starter has much greater value than even a potential 8th inning or even closer.
Why is this even being discussed in uncertain terms at this point?
Because we like to talk a lot.
Then for the love of all that’s good and holy, come up with some NEW talk.
Think up new trades proposals no one has come up with yet (Burnett for Beltran), off season regimes you’d like the players to focus (ala Jeter’s lateral movement to his left last year)… ANYTHING but…
1.) Whether Chamberlain/Hughes will be a starter or reliever.
2.) Whether Johnny Damon will accept a one or two year deal and if so, how much?
3.) Whether the Yankees are in the hunt for Holliday, Halladay, or Bay.
4.) Whether Matsui is coming back.
In absence of any NEW, substantial info, they subjects have been talked out.
Why in the world would we add onto the pile of inane trade proposals? We went over this before. Trade proposals usually suck.
We’ll set the editorial agenda here. I appreciate the input, but we’re going to write about what we want to write about.
I enjoyed the Josh Johnson talk.
“Why in the world would we add onto the pile of inane trade proposals? We went over this before. Trade proposals usually suck.”
That’s because they’re written by fans.
Trade proposals written by someone with a little perspective on what makes a good trade for TWO teams would be interesting.
“I appreciate the input, but we’re going to write about what we want to write about.”
As will I.
I disagree with you. Those four things are the most pressing things facing the Yankees this off season. Why would we stop discussing that stuff to talk about made up trades?
“I disagree with you. Those four things are the most pressing things facing the Yankees this off season. Why would we stop discussing that stuff to talk about made up trades?”
That was an EXAMPLE of something someone with insight COULD write about. The point was SOMETHING other than a regurgitation of the SAME THING every day.
And SOME of those matters are important I agree, but I’m not sure I see the value of a rehash of what’s been written before, followed by a rehash of a fan discussion that’s happened before.
Could be the most important subject of all time, but repetition is repetition.
THAT said, Chamberlain/Hughes IS NOT a pressing matter. They’re both going to spring training to compete for spots in the rotation.
It’s already determined. Micro-analyzing vague comments by Yankee officials to TRY to cast doubt on what we all really already know is what makes it tedious.
Ok, so besides made up trades, what other subjects would you like the RAB guys to cover. They seem to make around 50 posts or so every week, so what would you like them to write about? You seem to want to avoid all talk of free agency, possible real trades, and Joba/Hughes.
NO, free agency of not only logical, but the MOST logical.
I must have not expressed myself well as the people responding seem to have not understood my point.
The point is the subjects have been TALKED to death given the actual information we currently have.
When ACTUAL new information presents itself, then all bets are off.
The underlying secondary point is there WILL be no real, pertinent, new Chamberlain/Hughes info, unless one of them gets traded, hurt, or subject to some unforeseen fluke event.
I just can’t see given what we know what needs to be said again about whether the Yankees regard them as starters or relievers.
Oh, and btw – Roy Halladay to the Yanks for anyone is a “made up trade”.
Mike Cameron to the Yanks is a “made up” free agency signing.
What exactly is the threshold for something that is purely speculative to crossover from “inane” to relevant?
Create your own blog.
So the comments section exists only for a CERTAIN sort of feedback?
Is my commentary less acceptable than the guy who wants to regal us all with his insightful prose about how Joba Chamberlain’s mental make-up is much more suited to the bullpen??
Of course not, but clearly you’re not satisfied with the very wide range of posts, covering a great deal of subjects. Invariably some will deal with Joba/Hughes starting, the prospects of AP, JD signing (and LF in general), as well as Matsui.
I understand your point—if nothing has changed, why rehash it? But I think at a certain point you need to cede that these subjects are discussed often because they’re of great importance, particularly during this point in the year when there isn’t a whole lot of new things going on. Maybe it’s filler, but what alternative do you propose? I’m sure Ben, Mike and Joe would be happy to consider other things. They’re reasonable people, Stuckey.
I didn’t mean to be rude when I lobbied for you to create your own blog. If so, I apologize. It just seems that if you have other ideas that are not being considered or are tired of the same subjects, you can write something about it somewhere else. As the writers/editors, it’s up to them to decide their editorial content. If it’s not sufficient, fill the niche.
There goes JMk again. Do you ever contribute besides trying to rip people for views you dont share?
Is that the “overshare” part??
Burnett for Beltran?
why would the Mets do that when they could just sign Lackey?
Good gracious, does anyone understand what an throwaway “example” is.
But to answer your question anywho. Maybe because he won’t sign there, or signs somewhere else first.
I sent the Girardi quote to Ben this morning because I thought it was interesting that Girardi said they only had two starters even though Joba spent the full season making all of his starts in the rotation last year. I thought it said a lot about Girardi’s confidence in Joba (and Hughes), and that this was something worth bringing up. I think we all believe at this point that Joba and Phil will be in the rotation next year, at least in the beginning. But i just found it interesting that Girardi seemed to consider them question marks.
I wouldnt read into it that much. He doesnt consider them question marks because he doubts thier talent, he just doesnt know their role yet.
Not knowing their role has nothing to do with confidence.
I’d imagine that it just means that CC & AJ are definite spots in the rotation with zero chance of being put in the pen, due to their career paths and salaries. Although starting is the ideal use for Phil and Joba, both have minor league options remaining and could be moved to the pen if the right situation comes along.
I’ll second Ed’s analysis.
I agree. I also thought that that quote was a bit telling. Joba lost the trust of Girardi at some point along the way last year. Probably around the same time that the fans lost trust in him.
Heck, a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter has more value than a potential stud 8th-inning guy.
Exactanumdo.
So why would the Yanks EVER commit to either of these guys as bullpen arms, until such a time when their actual careers makes it obvious what they are.
The IDEA the Yanks would ever outright label these guys bullpen pitchers is insipid.
“Baseball Sportswriting 101″ clearly states, “…the linking of every free agent to the New York Yankees is essential to the credibility of an article.”
+1.
The Yankees are, in fact, petitioning MLB to have their roster expanded to 75 so they can sign the top 50 free agents out there.
Do the Yankees have a contingency plan for the bullpen should both Hughes and Joba break camp in the rotation? I guess that depends on your definition of contingency plan.
The bullpen played a huge role in our success last year…I don’t think you can just entirely gamble on it. Perhaps you can sign one decent arm while combing the farm for the other guy instead of Olney’s “2 arms” approach he heard about. Then again, whether you sign a bullpen arm or pluck one from the farm crops…it’s usually always a gamble. Unless you pay through your nose to make sure that doesn’t happen (and sometimes that doesn’t do anything either – See: Kyle Farnsworth, etc.)
The Yanks approached the bullpen in the same way the past two years. It worked better than the Farnsworth/Karsay/Quantrill way (though Tom Gordon was a good pick up).
I agree. And having only 2 starters at the moment makes the Joba/Hughes-starter option as possibly the only option at the moment. Andy Pettitte said he wasn’t going to come to a conclusion any time soon on whether he’ll return…and who doesn’t want to go out on top? (Besides Mike Mussina lol)
This raises an interesting question…
If Pettitte does retire, do the Yankees go big and offer a guaranteed spot to Ben Sheets?
I was thinking about that once I read the Daily News article saying he was going to take his time…
You pretty much have to go after a #3 pitcher if Andy doesn’t re-sign.
Remember our discussions before the 2009 season on how Andy Pettitte would be a bonus and we didn’t necessarily need him? We most certainly needed him and had we not had him…we probably wouldn’t have gone nearly as far as we did.
I would think you would have to get somebody more durable than Ben Sheets if all you have are Sabathia, Burnett, and 2 very young pitchers who have never pitched a full season before. No?
I’d still rather take a roll of the dice on Sheets if Pettitte goes. There isn’t a lot out there, honestly, and I don’t know if I’d be too comfortable offering a guaranteed spot to any of the FAs that aren’t Sheets, you know?
I agree…but all I’ve been reading about is how Sheets isn’t going to come cheap. His agent is actually referencing guys like Andy Pettitte as success stories (even though Pettitte used HGH as well)…so he might end up costing just as much as a much more reliable or durable starter…but who knows.
Yeah, but if Pettitte retires, you use the money for him to sign Sheets. When Sheets is healthy, he’s better than Pettitte.
Agreed but he hasn’t pitched over 200 innings since 2004.
Andy Pettitte has pitched over 200 innings every season SINCE 2004 except last season – 2009 (194.2 IP)
I don’t agree that Sheets is better than Pettitte for the Yankees. Would you really rather have Sheets on the mound instead of Pettitte in playoff games. Pettitte closed out like every series. That has to count for something.
And if Pettitte does not sign, I want Lackey, personally. Shit, I want Lackey no matter what. I know most are against that here though.
Rose: Would Sheets be expected to go 200 innings as the third starter, though? How many #3 starters go 200+ innings?
Mike HC: If it’s Sheets or Pettitte, I probably take Pettitte because of his health and overall consistency. In the scenario I’m positing, Andy Pettitte has already retired. As for Lackey, I’d still prefer Sheets over him because the commitment would be much smaller than it would be for the ape looking bulldog and the results would likely be the same or better.
I love Sheets, too, but if Pettitte doesn’t come back, there is also Randy Wolf.
No thank you. I’d rather gamble on Sheets than take on Wolf.
what about if they sign Randy Wolf but let him wear Sheets’ jersey?
they have a Wolf in Sheets’ clothing.
thanks, i’ll be here all week. tip your waitresses.
IETC a little too much.
I know we all want Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes to emerge as Cy Young winners..and win multiple championships…and be front end starters..and live up to the hype that blogs and websites put on them.
but sometimes it ain’t gonna work like that….
i don’t mean to break your hearts…but thats the way the cookie crumbles.
didn’t mean for this to reply here.
I think we all realize that but that doesn’t mean we should give up on them as starters because each has had some success in relief. They should be starters until they prove they can’t be starters.
Why is it “giving up”??
by that logic most, if not all, young pitchers that are in the bullpen have been given up on too soon.
It’s giving up because between the two of them, they have ~300 innings of work as a starter. That’s hardly enough to judge one starting pitching prospect let alone two. Abandoning either pitcher as a starter at this point would be foolish.
With Hughes thats fair.
With Joba i think you can indeed begin to judge him…he has started over 40 games and has pitched over 220 innings as a starter.
Yeah, sure, you can judge him (or anyone) on what he’s done but that’s still not nearly enough time to judge what his career will be like. 220 innings is, innings wise, just over a full season, right? Why would you judge a guy based on what amounts to a full season of work?
The difference is most young starters don’t have the raw talent level that Hughes and Joba do. The more raw talent, the more chances you give.
That, too.
Look at how many years the Cubs kept Wood in the rotation, he was simply more valuable if he could make it as a starter. Considering he was Dusty Baker’d, and Joba/Hughes have been treated well with regards to innings/pitch counts, you keep them starters until there is no doubt they won’t have success. If you think now, that it will never happen, trade them ASAP. They have little value as relievers compared to their potential as starters. That’s why it’s giving up.
Dusty Baker gets a lot of crap for that, but perhaps it was not all his fault.
Wood and Prior threw mighty hard and grew up in the PED era (which we are really still in). I have a feeling their arm problems were part overwork by Dusty, and partly due to way too much stress and pressure on their arms by throwing so hard, for whatever reason.
Agreed, though Baker surely hasn’t learned his lesson (see Volquez, Edinson). My main point was that the Cubs held on to dreams of Kerry Wood the starter for years simply because he carried considerably more value in the rotation than as a closer.
So the answer is to just assume that they’re not going to work out when they’re really young…rip them out of the starting rotation fearing the worst…and do the same with any other prospect we have as well because nothing is ever 100% ever…
Not bad…
While I do favor the current bullpen approach, we should also keep in mind that the switch in strategies occurred at the same time as the switch in managers. The better bullpens the past two years may simply be because Girardi distributes the workload far, far better than Torre did.
That philosophy only worked because of Hughes.
This season turned because Hughes stabilized the pen and dominated the season.
I know Yankee fans tend to overlook the importance of a great pen because of Mo but as the playoffs showed its vitally important in winning.
it’s always easy to take a starter and make him into a reliever – I think we’re good at that
Ivan Nova…likely to see the pen in 2010
Ivan Nova…likely to see the pen in 2010
That’s exactly what I’m hoping for. That’s old school baseball thinking, Holmes. Starting pitchers start out in the bullpen to learn to get ML hitters out.
Joba + Phil > 4.5 WAR in ’10.
I like that Cashman is at the least being open minded and the Yankees are in the best position to make the deal for Halladay. 2 issues 1-I think they have more to offer than Boston, unless Boston is willing to put 2 of the following ellsbury, bard, bucholz then what do they have to offer? Lars Anderson bombed this year and the rest of their good prospects are at A ball. The Yanks could do a deal cenetered around of of Joba-Phil and maybe Juan Miranda-Ipk-Mcallister or Nova. 2-I wish people would not compare Lackey to Halladay in terms of upgrades to the rotation. Lackey is nowehere near the upgrade Halladay is.
The Yanks could do a deal cenetered around of of Joba-Phil and maybe Juan Miranda-Ipk-Mcallister or Nova.
Pass.
Lackey + Hughes/Joba +Nova +IPK, etc.>>>>>>>>>>>>Halladay+$100 million extension for a 33 year old pitcher
Lackey is 31 himself and not nearly as durable or nearly as good as Halladay. also, he’ll cost nearly $100M, so you can just cross the $$ out of the equation.
there is a case to be made there, but it doesn’t involve half the “>”‘s you seem to think.
Even at a $100 million, the consensus sides with Halladay being a better bet than Lackey. And like Steve-H said, Lackey probably comes with his own $100 mm price tag as well.
If Halladay really wants out, I wonder if he’ll agree to a 4 year extension at a CC-level AAS. I’d gladly lose one of Joba or Hughes for four years of Halladay.
Think Cody Ransom and Juan Miranda can get us Halladay? What if we throw in Jason Hirsch to sweeten the pot?
CC, AJ, Pettitte (lock it up), Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves, Nova, McAllister…
add Wang, base + incentives
white-out “Smoltz, 2008″ and replace with “Sheets, 2009″
2 relievers? Survey says no.
Now, where can they shake lose an OF?
Mike Cameron.
Matt ACTY/BBD, if (when) we sign Cameron, I’m starting the fan club, want to be the VP? Imagine Swish and Cameron in the same OF? Mind blowing.
yeah. I know. Where can they shake loose two outfielders? Damon sounds like he’s gonna Boras his wait out of here (not that he’s an outfielder, anyway)
If Damon does go, I say you put Matsui back at DH and roll with Melky in LF for defensive reasons.
Yeah, well, that’s the fall back plan for me. Do you remember the panic surrounding Matsui last March/April? It may have simply been one year premature.
I think I might prefer Nick Johnson, but in reality I am hoping an even better option (like Miggy in a total salary dump) presents itself.
I really don’t think that is an option. No f’ing way the Yanks go into the season with a starting outfield of Swisher, Cameron, Melky. I don’t know who Cashman will get his hands on to play left or maybe even a big hitting CF (you never know, it could happen), but he will get somebody.
I’m in. Though I feel we should defer to Mike and TSJC for upper-cabinet posts as they’ve been beating this drum far longer.
I’m pretty sure they’ve been lobbying for Cameron since 2003.
Yeah, I know there have been several drum beaters for Cameron over the past few years. It makes too much sense. He’s career is probably 95% of Torii Hunter’s, yet he is not seen that way and doesn’t cost nearly as much.
Torii Hunter WAR last 5 years: 13.8
Mike Cameron WAR last 5 years: 16.9
no joke.
Cameron. Overrated for yrs. But hey anytime one can hit .250 and hit 20 homers and strikeout at an obscene rate he must be good.
And we’ve all seen 38yr old CF’s retain their skills and continue being elite fielders right???
Camerons the definition of a guy who cant hit good pitching.
Didnt Melky and Gardner show enough promise to warrant another go or did helping a title team not show enough for u?
Personally, I’m leaning towards moving Joba to the bullpen for two reasons: A, we need a damn near sure thing for the eighth inning. B, his confidence just looks gone.
Fixing the first problem is simple: Sign a reliable eighth inning reliever like Mike Gonzalez.
As far as the confidence problem goes, I’m not really sure what we can do other than send him to AAA to face weaker competition and get his head back together. When he was coming out of the bullpen during the playoffs, we saw that Joba Chamberlain that made us believe in him as a starter. He was attacking the strike-zone and pitching like a champ. When he was in the rotation during the regular season, he nibbled and nibbled and just kept falling behind to batters.
This raised his pitch count because he was always pitching from behind, and it made him throw over the plate way too often. MLB hitters don’t need two chances to get a hit, and Joba was giving them at least two fat pitches to hit an at-bat. I want Joba to be a front of the rotation pitcher, but he just isn’t showing it to me right now. I vote we send him to AAA to learn how to pitch more effectively and efficiently as a starting pitcher. Look at CC Sabathia, he gets the strikeouts, but he also pitches to contact when he needs to and that’s why he is a horse. With their repertoires, I really think that they could be similar type pitchers down the road.
Joba’s problem is in his approach and his mentality, and it’s a toss up if he’s going to fix that.
So, my off-season plan is simple:
1. Resign Andy Pettitte, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui.
All three of them want to come back, all three of them can be productive in 2009, and all three of them are going to be as good as anybody else we can bring in for their jobs. Damon on a two year deal with a vesting option for a third year based on performance, Pettitte on a one year deal with a player option for a second year, Matsui on a one year deal with a vesting option for a second year based on performance. Vesting options based on performance are great because it’s like a guaranteed year assuming the players are worthwhile, and if they’re worthwhile, why wouldn’t we want them back?
2. Sign or Trade for a very good relief pitcher.
Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Francisco Cordero, Bobby Jenks, Jose Valverde, Billy Wagner, Brett Meyers, JJ Putz, Takashi Saito, take your pick. Personally, I think Robertson will end up doing the job and doing it well. But I don’t feel like betting our repeat campaign on one bullpen arm.
3. Sign reliable, innings eatting, ground-ball starting pitcher.
I’m talking about a Joel Peneiro, a Jon Garland, a Ben Sheets, a Justin Duchscherer, a Javier Vazquez, a Gil Meche, or a Jake Westbrook. Somebody we can slot into the rotation with Sabathia-Burnett-Pettitte-Hughes and take the ball every fifth day in a home run happy Yankee Stadium. This guy doesn’t need to be good, just good enough. A sub-5.00 ERA and a nice GB-FB ratio.
4. Demote Joba Chamberlain to AAA Scranton.
Let him pitch every fifth day until about June, then call him up assuming he pitched well. This will let him regain his confidence and get the steady, consistent work he’s needed since 2007. We have to remember that he sky-rocketed through the minors in his first year. The minor leagues is just as much about getting work in and learning how to pitch professionally as it is about getting guys out, it’s about learning how to make a career not how to make a game or a season.
Id much rather sign Lackey and put Joba in the pen than sign Soriano and have Joba start.