Comments on: A (somewhat) informed look at Posada vs. Molina

By: Tank Foster

Tank Foster — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:14:41 +0000

Sorry, but you are talking specifically about one part of the scientific method: experimentation. Controlling variables as much as possible, except for the variable you wish to study.

But it is also part of the scientific method to deal with observations. The key to the scientific method is the reliance on data, and proper interpretation of it.

Axisa’s observations have yielded data which suggest the variable of “who is catching, Molina or Posada” has a big effect on how many runs the other team scores. That is a scientific deduction, guys.

It may be a flimsy one. But until someone blows it out of the water by a closer examination of those data, or presentation of other data, you have to respect it.

Sometimes I get the feeling that people embrace stats and sabermetrics in a selective fashion.

By: NC Saint

NC Saint — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 05:13:09 +0000

Taking into account the weighted average expected batting stats for the pitchers in question would obviously be a lot of work. And adding in expected batting stats for the lineups faced as well would make this a very heavy-duty project.

But, to be honest, I don’t really see the point of this if you aren’t doing that. Before reading this I had an ungrounded hunch that Posada didn’t call as good a game as Molina and that that offset his offensive edge to some extent, but probably left him much, much more valuable. After reading this, I have basically the same hunch. Your numbers provide a little prima facie support for the notion that Posada calls a worse game (or is just a much worse defensive catcher), but that’s about it. When there are this many uncontrolled variables, I just don’t see how we’re better off than with a shrug of the shoulders and an educated guess.

By: tim randle

tim randle — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 23:38:03 +0000

i thought the write up and the insight were fantastic, except for one line:

I just can’t see Molina being a friggin’ seven win player because of his game calling; there has to be a way to improve GCRAA.

that line reminds me of AGW, and that you want to somehow change your results to fit the predetermined outcome. i’m sure that’s not what you’re saying–i even think i know what it is you mean to say, i just wanted to let you know what it sounded like to me.

By: tim randle

tim randle — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 23:35:21 +0000

if we can blame anyone, firstly, i wan’t to blame cano. then melky. then posada–but only his defense, so…split that in half for him. if you need any more to blame, blame giambi–i dont know how, just do it.

By: Mo Wang

Mo Wang — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 23:08:05 +0000

Catcher’s ERA is a useless stat. Completely useless. For example,dDo you really want to penalize Posada for wang’s terrible season. Wang had one of the worst seasons in the history of the game for a pitcher. That’s not Posada’s fault. Why would Wang pitch fine to Posada one year, and then pitch like garbage to him a few years later? The difference is the change in the ability of the pitcher, not the catcher. So sorry to say, but this analysis is completely meaningless because it is based on Catcher ERA, which is a horrible stat to draw any conclusions from.

By: Jean Marie

Jean Marie — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 21:54:13 +0000

this is a stupied debate because you should keep the catcher that can hit and that is posada. molina can’t hit at all even if he became the starting catcher

By: Bonos

Bonos — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 21:21:50 +0000

Excellent article

Not for anything earthshaking re Posada. Just that it’s become Holy Writ that catcher offense is more important than defense. In part because it’s hard to stat it. All this – offense is more important than defense is silly. Runs scored for and against are counted in numbers as in 1, 2 etc. It’s not as if offensive runs are worth 1.1 or something. Shake up the pontification and instill some uncertainty on this board – kudos to Mike.

Baseball is a simple game with subleties. Just as nobody cheers a walk, no one gets excited by defense. Offense sells tickets, Defense wins games. Gack, preaching again.

One side weighted discussions are boring. Offer a differing points of view and you get shot down by a Fangraph quote, unless it’s Melky.

By: NYYfan

NYYfan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 21:01:23 +0000

Only one stat matters. The Yanks have only missed the playoffs one time since 1994. That’s right, the year Posada was injured. End of discussion. Next topic, let Molina go and have Cervelli backup.

By: espresso

espresso — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:47:12 +0000

I think the major flaw in your analysis is that you assume a random distribution of days off/catching days. When do backup catchers catch? Get away games, day games after night games, etc. Those are days when not only are the Yankees subbing for a better offensive player, the opponents are too. In the case of Molina and Posada this year you also have to account for Molina catching most of A.J.’s games. That’s a pretty big interference in the data, he’s the number two pitcher and there is not enough data to only use his numbers. Given that A.J. is more comfortable with Molina, which may not be directly related to catching skills (maybe the just get along better) you would also have wonder if there is some variation in his pitching or if his perception of Posada’s defense causes him to hold back on his big breaking ball.

Less scientifically, the manager was a pretty good catcher, is a smart guy, and watches every game from one of the best seats in the place and could easily call the games if he wanted to.

By: searay

searay — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:37:03 +0000

Molina > Posada? Not on this planet. Notice how Posada gets blamed for calling a bad game when a pitcher has a bad game, but when he pitches well, the pitcher gets the credit.