Dec
29

Francesa: Mets on verge of signing Bay

By

According to WFAN’s Mike Francesa, the Mets are going to announce the signing of Jason Bay after the slugger takes his physical this weekend. Bay has been sitting on the Mets’ offer for weeks, hoping for a better one from Seattle. Why then does this matter for the Yankees? With Bay nearly on board in Queens, the Mets are no longer an option for Johnny Damon, and the free agent’s choices are slowly dwindling. My money is still on a Bronx return for Johnny but on the Yanks’ terms.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
  • All Praise Be To Mo

    1 year, $5 million…Get it done Cash-money!

  • Mike Pop

    I wonder if Bay got them to tack on an extra year or a little more money….

  • http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6355462&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy JobaWockeeZ

    Great. The mets get a DH to play the outfield.

    • Tampa Yankee

      JASON BAY IS A LEFT FIELDHA!1!11!! GET ME HIS LAST 5 AT BATS!!1!

      (Chugs Diet Coke)

      /Francesa’d

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona

        Did anyone else see Francesa on “30 on 30 – The U”? He was a broadcaster during Miami’s game against Texas in the Cotton Bowl. He was a Douche Lorraine even then.

        • Steve H

          I saw it, and he was.

  • Granderslam

    Does this mean a possible return for Damon in pinstripes? I hope so!

    • Jeff Levy

      I hope Damon comes back. He needs to swallow his pride. If the Yankees won’t give Damon the money nobody else will. After playing on such good teams like the Red Sox and Yankees why would Damon take equal or lesser pay to play on a team he can’t win with? What realistic options are out there for Damon besides the Yankees?

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

      It means there’s a better chance, that’s all. Even then, if we’re to believe this supposed hard cap and the money available (estimates are around $4 million), he’ll still be a bit too high (probably closer to $6 million). We’ll see how this plays out, but it certainly limits the teams in on Damon.

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      I don’t really think this changes Damon’s situation vis a vis the Yanks. The story we’ve heard all along is that the Yanks aren’t willing to meet Damon’s financial demands. It’s not like Bay signing with an MLB team (other than the Yanks) is an unforeseen circumstance that we didn’t know was going to happen, this is just the occurrence of something that has been a certainty all along.

      So yeah, in a sense it makes a Damon return more likely, since he’ll have fewer suitors. My point is just that it’s not like this is some surprise occurrence that’s a game changer or anything. We knew this was going to happen, it’s just a step in the process.

  • Mike Pop

    I think Johnny will have too much pride to return. Feel like he would rather go somewhere else for even less money then to take a small deal and return here.

  • Andy in Sunny Daytona

    This just in……Francesa just said something stupid and chugged 12 Diet Cokes.

    A match made in heaven. I wish Jason Bay nothing but the best in Queens.

  • Johan Iz My Brohan

    But I thought Bay was the crucial piece for the Sox to put in LF, move Cameron to CF, and then trade Ellsbury and Buchholz to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez!!

    Now let the chain reaction begin, Holliday will soon resign with the Cardinals, and Damon will come crawling back to the Yankees on their terms.

    BTW: What draft picks do the Sox get for now? Even though next years class is supposedly weaker than 2011, it looks like their rackin’ up a ton of picks.

    • JGS

      I think they get the Mets’ second-rounder since their first rounder is protected. That would give the Sox the first rounder they got for losing Wagner and two sandwich picks plus the second-rounder from the Mets

    • Bo

      You make it sound like the Sox cant sign Holliday.

      • Tom Zig

        They’re a small market team. They won’t sign Holliday

        • WIlliam

          Yeah,
          the Sox are just a poor little small market team and those mean yankees have an unfair money advantage.

          • http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090810&content_id=6355462&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp&c_id=nyy JobaWockeeZ

            If only they had a bigger media market!

  • Salty Buggah

    I’m really the Mets took Bay off the market. I didn’t want the Yanks to get him.

    I really can’t wait to see him make a fool out of himself in the spacious Citi Field LF.

    • Mike Pop

      I really can’t wait to see him make a fool out of himself in the spacious Citi Field LF.

      Why? I hope he does well.

      • Salty Buggah

        I’m not hoping he’ll do bad but it doesn’t change the fact he’s a bad fielder. I guess how I said it was kinda harsh.

        • IRememberCelerinoSanchez

          The first time one of my Met fan friends says something like, “With Bay in our outfield, we’re so much better than the Yanks now,” I’ll be rooting for Bay to go .235/.295/.395 with a -25 UZR150.

          • Tampa Yankee

            I emailed a Mets buddy of mine to share the news and at first he thought it was a good move as they needed a bat.

            However, the moment I shared that it had an “easy fifth-year vesting option”, he wasn’t too happy anymore.

          • scoopemup

            Bay=Kingman.

            • http://incumbentgm.wordpress.com Joltin’ Joe

              They are both self-centered, arrogant douchebags. Oh wait, just Kingman!

    • Johan Iz My Brohan

      Watch him get injured as soon as he steps on to Citi’s outfield grass.

    • Bo

      You make it sound like hes the worst LF in history. He’s fine out there. You never heard one peep about his defensive play the last 6 yrs til suddenly he got to free agency. now hes the absolute worst!!

      Please. The mets started Murphy n Sheffield out there last season. He’ll be great for them.

      • Rod

        Because he was in Pittsburgh for most of those years so nobody cared.

      • Salty Buggah

        He’s not the worst but he’s bad (-8 UZR). Also, you didn’t hear as much about until he went to the Sox. He put up some great numbers in Pittsburgh but when he got traded to Boston, he was suddenly a MVP player despite being a low 3 WAR player there. (though he was MVP great in 05/06).

        I agree with him being better than Murphy and Sheffield but that’s pretty obvious.

      • Ed

        Part of that is because his defense was better 6 years ago. It got a lot worse after his knee surgery before the ’07 season.

        Part of that is because his knee surgery also made his offense decline for a year, making 2007 an all around bad year for him. No one cares about a decline in defense when it occurs at the same time as a player falls from All Star level offense to below average.

        And finally, part of that is you apparently weren’t paying attention for the past year plus, when his defensive failures were brought up in most discussions about his future.

  • theyankeewarrior

    One step closer to another sweet 1yr deal….

    Johnny will crawl back to NY like Alex did but this time Cashman will greet him with roughly 2.5% of the money he gave to the former choke-artist.

    • http://thebronxbloggers.wordpress.com Bronx Blogger

      bashing a-rod? c’mon, the guy deserves a break after his post season heroics.

      • Nady Nation

        Well, he did say “former choke-artist.” Is that considered a break?

      • theyankeewarrior

        A-Rod is my favorite player, but when the Yanks resigned him they gave him about 100M more than they needed to.

        Not to mention that they had all the negotiating power bc he came crawling back. No one else on the market could afford to outbid the Yanks but they banged that deal out with Alex fairly quickly.

        I’ll give him a pass for 2004 because he carried them in the DS and hit well in the first 4 games of the series we all want to forget. But his 2005 and 2006 performances were so bad that he almost gave them no chance to win as an automatic out from the cleanup spot.

        I’m not bashing him at all. He is a legend and proved he should be the highest paid player in the game this regular season and post season.

        But idk if he will still deserve that in years 6,7,8,9 and 10 of his deal.

        • Doug

          “A-Rod is my favorite player, but when the Yanks resigned him they gave him about 100M more than they needed to.”

          +1

          “But idk if he will still deserve that in years 6,7,8,9 and 10 of his deal.”

          +1

        • Ed

          Not to mention that they had all the negotiating power bc he came crawling back. No one else on the market could afford to outbid the Yanks but they banged that deal out with Alex fairly quickly.

          Let’s not get carried away. They did overpay, but the “crawling back” was a nice story for the media. A-Rod and Boras did an excellent performance of the good cop, bad cop routine.

          Remember that despite what he said at the time, A-Rod still works Boras, and Boras got the commission from the deal. There’s no way Boras would’ve gotten a cut of that deal if he wasn’t in on it.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

            Right on point, Ed.

          • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            “There’s no way Boras would’ve gotten a cut of that deal if he wasn’t in on it.”

            That’s not necessarily the whole truth. We have no idea what the contract between A-Rod and Boras says about that kind of situation, he may have had a claim on a commission even if he was cut out of the deal in the end. Most contracts between agents and clients don’t allow the client to negotiate directly with an employer who the agent has been involved with in the past and just cut the agent out of the deal.

    • Chris

      Crawl back to NY like A-Rod? Does this mean he’s going to teach Boras a lesson by dumping him and negotiating the largest contract in baseball history like Alex did too?

      Cashman sure taught A-Rod a lesson there.

  • Bo

    Damon like most athletes is a prideful guy. Why would he come back here for 1 yr and 5 mill? He’d be resentful all yr. He’d be better off someplace else if they are going to lowball him and make him accept “market” rate.

    • Reggie C.

      If JD begins to contemplate a 1 year deal at max money, a team like the Brewers should step up.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

        And play him where?

  • Salty Buggah

    4/66 with a vesting option (Sherman says its an “easy vest”) for 5th year.

    Anyone remember what the Red Sox offered him?

    • JGS

      4/60, I thought

    • Tampa Yankee

      I really don’t understand 4/$66. There really is no market for him. Boston wouldn’t go 5 yrs or above $15M. The Yankees and Mariners are not going to sign him. The Cards want to re-up Holliday and the Giants just signed DeRosa as a LF/Util guy. They are way overpaying.

      Anyone remember what the Red Sox offered him?
      4/$60

      • Doug

        don’t understand why the yanks resigned arod for 10/275 either. there really is not market for him…….they are way overpaying.

        • Tampa Yankee

          Oh, I totally agree with you about ARod. I was just saying that I think the Mets could have worked it down to closer to the Sox’s offer.

          • Doug

            i hear ya, but only $6M ($1.5M per) apart in the end. not much difference

            • Tampa Yankee

              It apparently is enough that Bay didn’t go back to Boston. The Mets have many holes to fill and trying to work a player down to get the most affordable contract you can is not a bad thing.

              • Doug

                going on my recollection, but boston’s offer was no longer on the table. was early in the offseason and was pulled once they signed cameron.

            • Steve in PDX

              Sox were just short of Tex last offseason too, I think like 12mil. must suck to be a small market team

        • WIlliam

          Weren’t they keeping him from the Bosox? I distinctely remember the sox offering 10 years 260 mil.

          • Doug

            i don’t think that’s right. personally don’t recall the sox being in it at all for arod. i mean they had only recently signed lowell. i think the angels had an offer out there, but not sure it was even over $200M

      • Salty Buggah

        I’m fine with the 4/66 because they had to have the best offer in order to convince him but I dont get the 5th year. It’s a vesting option but apparently, it’s pretty much automatic.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          To get his 5th year picked up, he has to invest in Fred Wilpon’s Investment Club*.

          *Not a Ponzi scheme. Really. Seriously. It’s on the up and up.

          • thurdonpaul

            IETC

    • Salty Buggah

      Thanks both of you. So he did get a better deal than the one he got from Boston.

  • Brian

    Damon- 1 year/$8 million. I’m sure we can work around our “budget.” Trade Gaudin or Mitre for some salary relief. More importantly, Bay is the perfect Met. He’s overrated and will be terrible (both offensively and defensively) in that ballpark. The first move that the Mets should have made was announce plans to reconstruct the outfield (move in the fences, or decrease the size of the wall). What offensive player wants to play in that park?

  • Reggie C.

    If Mets really did avoid dishing a 5 yr deal, then the Bay signing looks really solid. Bay could OPS .850 & play up to his contract.

    • Mike Pop

      Have to be weary about his defense though. Could really diminish his offense.

      • Reggie C.

        True. But since the NL’s a weaker pitching division, i think Bay might be crushing more in 2010 than what we’re anticipating. I’m probably being way conservative on calling a .850 OPS
        mark.

        It doesn’t offset the bad D totally, but bad D can be marginalized if Bay hits like he has the past couple seasons.

        • Doug

          unlikely to happen in citifield, though

          • Salty Buggah

            Yea, he’s gotta change his approach again from being dead pull-hitter in Fenway to all fields like in Pittsburgh.

          • Reggie C.

            Bay’s a legitimate power hitter though. The Mets had not one single, healthy power hitter on that roster last season. He might be among those guys who could hit 30 homers anywhere.

            • Doug

              maybe, but mr. wright a pretty good hitter in his own right with a lot of power and you saw what happened to him.

              willing to bet that he doesn’t get to 30 and probably not to 25 either.

              • Mike Pop

                A lot of that had to do with Wright having nobody to protect him in the lineup either. He was the only real threat so I doubt he saw as many good pitches to hit. Good hitters can hit home runs there, we’ll see a lot more of that this year I methinks.

                • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

                  Yep. That lineup is totally different with a healthy Reyes, Beltran, Wright, Bay. Delgado would be a good pickup for them if their split wasn’t on as poor terms as it’s made out to be. Citi may be a pitcher’s park but the huge power declines there are more a factor of the injuries than the field, methinks.

        • Jeff Levy

          Don’t forget Bay gets to face Hallday on a regular basis while playing the Phillies.

  • Paul Zuvella

    1 year $8 million for Damon then Dump Mitre and Gaudin to make up the cash. The team has enough depth for the 5th starter spot already.

    • Mike Pop

      I don’t think it’s smart to dump both Mitre and Gaudin.

      • IRememberCelerinoSanchez

        I think it’s ALWAYS smart to dump Mitre! (I like Gaudin, though.)

        • Salty Buggah

          Ugh, I really dont get why Gaudin is liked more than Mitre. He had a better FIP and tRA than Gaudin and he should improve a bit more being another year removed from TJ surgery.

          • jsbrendog

            but TEH STRIKEOOTS!1!!!1

            • Salty Buggah

              Haha, strikeoots…sounds like a Canadian

    • Jeff Levy

      Gaudin has more value to the Yankees than Mitre. Mitre seems like a waste of money.

      • Doug

        and more value to another team. would get more for back for gaudin than for mitre

        • Bronx Ralphie

          sign Damon, trade Joba. end of story.

          • jsbrendog

            please be sarcasm

            • Tampa Yankee
              • Bronx Ralphie

                I am sorry. I am as big a Yankee fan as anybody on this blog (and yes, I don’t write a lot. I spend most of my time reading) I just don’t think Joba is going to amount to anything as a starting pitcher. He has a shot at success as a reliever/closer but I just don’t see him as a successul starting pitcher..now or six years from now. that is just my opinion so bash it if you want.

                • Tampa Yankee

                  Ralphie,

                  What makes you think he won’t be a “good” starting pitcher?

                  What do you define as a “good” starting pitcher?

                • Tampa Yankee

                  And “He throws way too many pitches to go deep into ball games and he gets himself into too many hitters counts” doesn’t count.

                • http://www.riveraveblues.com Joseph Pawlikowski

                  An opinion without evidence is worthless.

                • Tampa Yankee

                  If I’m following this correctly, Joba threw 3.9 pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) http://www.hardballtimes.com/t.....ayer/2692/

                  That is equal to (of those that qualified):
                  AJ Burnett, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chad Billingsly, Andy Pettitte and Rickey Romaro to name a few.

                  That is less than (of those that qualified):
                  Matt Garza, Justin Verlander, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw

                  All of them are considered “good” starting pitchers. Joba’s control should better with age and experience.

                • Tampa Yankee

                  Here’s the link to the P/PA:

                  http://www.hardballtimes.com/t.....038;page=1

                • Bronx Ralphie

                  I just don’t like that he throws a lot of pitches and that he tries to get weak hitters to chase that slider when all he has to do is blow a fastball by them.

                  and i know this at-bat didn’t wind up hurting us but Pedro Feliz in the world series…everybody knows pedro feliz is an inside fastball hitter…what does joba throw him with two strikes? an inside fastball which feliz took deep out of the park

                • Tampa Yankee

                  I just don’t like that he throws a lot of pitches and that he tries to get weak hitters to chase that slider when all he has to do is blow a fastball by them.

                  Even “weak” hitters can catch a fastball now and then. You need to have more than 1 pitch to be a starting pitcher (see Rivera, Mariano). Again, as he matures and develops, his control will get better.

                  and i know this at-bat didn’t wind up hurting us but Pedro Feliz in the world series…everybody knows pedro feliz is an inside fastball hitter…what does joba throw him with two strikes? an inside fastball which feliz took deep out of the park

                  First you say Joba needs to blow hitters away with his fastball and now you complain that he did? Pick an argument and stick with it.

                  So since Andy threw that inside cutter to Vlad that he deposited into LF, does that make Andy a “bad” SP also?

                  Come on dude, seriously…

                • Tampa Yankee

                  First you say Joba needs to blow hitters away with his fastball and now you complain that he did tried too? Pick an argument and stick with it.

                • Bronx Ralphie

                  time will tell. let’s leave it at that.

                • Tampa Yankee

                  Who know, I should have figured in a thread that has something to do with Fatcesa, that a B-Jobber would come out spitting nonsense.

                • Bronx Ralphie

                  Tampa,

                  what are your thoughts on Phil Hughes? starter or reliever?

                • pete

                  Thing that needs to be understood about Joba and Phil is that, despite their present “status” according to commonly accepted definition, both are, in fact, still PROSPECTS. Until both have stretched their arms out to a full season’s capacity and been given the time to develop a couple of secondary pitches and hone in their location, they are prospects.

                  I would say 2011 will be Joba’s first year as a non-prospect, and 2012 will be for Hughes. When you consider the accomplishments of these two thus far, you realize that they still remain exceptional starting pitching prospects. Virtually every pitcher struggles with inconsistency (not just in results, but in actual stuff, too) when they come up. For some it’s just a season (see lincecum, tim). For others it’s a few seasons (see Greinke, Zack). Some hit the ground running and then have a dud year a couple years into their career (verlander), and others simply progress steadily in the majors (Felix).

                  Of course, it is incredibly unfair to compare either Hughes or Chamberlain to any of these elite pitchers at this point, but both of these guys have shown the ability to dominate as starting pitchers thus far. Chamberlain was essentially Scott Kazmir (pre suckitude) as a starter in 2008, and was a reasonably good starter for most of 2009. Hughes has been inconsistent, but has also had a few flashes of dominance.

                  When judging or projecting a starting pitching prospect (basically any starter under the age of 25), you don’t look at their body of work in the major leagues, because there are simply too many examples of great starters who took a long time to put it all together. When gauging a starter, you have to look at what they are capable of doing (i.e., their spurts of dominance), and then give them a few years to build up consistency.

                  Under normal circumstances, Joba would have continued to start until he reached his innings cap in 2007 (around 110 innings, I believe), then would have been shut down. Then he would have begun the next year in AAA, and pitched all minor-league season, approximately reaching his new innings cap (140-150 innings, again, all as a starter). this would have set him up for a 2009 entrance with an innings cap of about 180 innings, a mark that only elite pitchers tend to surpass anyways, which would have meant that 2010 would have been the year of full-throttle Joba Chamberlain. Injuries and team needs, however, pushed Joba’s development back a year.

                  In other words, after 2011, we can have a MUCH more educated discussion of whether or not Joba is going to make it as a starter. My personal guess is that by that time that question will have been answered in a clear and ringing YES, but again, it remains to be seen.

                • J

                  In fairness, I don’t think you need to insult this man Tampa. And yes, “Who know, I should have figured in a thread that has something to do with Fatcesa, that a B-Jobber would come out spitting nonsense” is an insulting line.

                  People have opinions all the time. Joe is right that if you can’t back them up, they aren’t worth much. I don’t think that Ralph is trying to sway anyone’s opinion, simply stating his. But at the top of this thread, Jeff states, “Gaudin has more value to the Yankees than Mitre. Mitre seems like a waste of money.” This is an opinion, backed up by nothing, yet no one treats him unfairly.

                  Just my opinion. I personally agree that both Hughes and Joba are starters and should be groomed that way. However, I am not going to back that up with any stats. Will I just be ripped apart because I am not backing it up, or because others agree am I passable?

            • Salty Buggah

              Probably not. I don’t know why but when I see someone who’s not a regular (and it doesn’t seem like he’s around much looking at his name), I think they’ll say dumb shit. There are many times when new commenter are really smart and have good stuff to say but I think (but my memory may be flawed) most new commenters say dumb shit and they aren’t kidding.

          • http://thebronxbloggers.wordpress.com Bronx Blogger

            why are we trading joba?

      • Salty Buggah

        As a reliever maybe. But as a starter, I’d say Mitre is better.

        http://riveraveblues.com/2009/.....ent-735272

  • JGS

    Bay 2010 home run total prediction:

    27

    • http://thebronxbloggers.wordpress.com Bronx Blogger

      home/away splits?

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona

        Citfield – 5, Away – 22. 5 at home will lead the team by 2.

        • Tampa Yankee

          I lol’d

        • http://thebronxbloggers.wordpress.com Bronx Blogger

          haha how many did wright his last year in citi field? 7? 9?

          • Andy in Sunny Daytona

            5.

            Fun Fact O’the Day: Melky Cabrera’s 13 HR would have lead the Mets in 2009.

        • http://www.retire21.org Mike R. – Retire 21

          The new Yankee Stadium is quickly becoming a joke across the league because it’s a bandbox.

          /Gammons’d

    • Reggie C.

      That’s about right. Twenty-seven homers qualifies as solid output. I think its fair to extrapolate from Bay’s career numbers an OPS of .850.

  • http://sportsshowlive.blogspot.com/ Joey H

    I hope Bay has a good fastball and some good secondary pitches. Also, his receiving skills better be good and throw out runners at a 45% clip.

  • Drew

    Why on earth wouldn’t they just sign Holliday, the price tag isn’t much different.

    • Mike Pop

      Meh. We don’t really know that for sure.

      • Zack

        Well if the 5th year option is atleast 14m then they just spent 80m on Jason Bay

      • Drew

        I dunno.. Holliday can’t cost much more than 16.5 per. Whether or not he’d go to the Mets is another story though.

    • Reggie C.

      Holliday has got to be holding out for a 6 year deal. He’s got 5 guaranteed years on the table, but teams aren’t budging from 5.

    • mike c

      Bay pulls the ball = better chance of it leaving the park in citi field

      • Drew

        Eh. Gotta go with the better player imo.

        • Myopic Stat Geek

          I normally would agree how Bay is a better fit for Citi Field according to the Met’s charts and graphs. In this situation however, Holliday is the better overall player and is worth the difference in salary in this situation.
          Bay will make the Met fans yearn for the days of Keith Miller patrolling the outfield.

  • pat

    Mets first round pick is protected to the Sox get their 2nd rounder.
    Excellent

    • Reggie C.

      Holy crap.

      That’s right! Minaya kinda screwed Theo on that one.

      • Mike Bk

        BS he handed theo a 1st and supp in the wagner deal.

      • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        Let’s not give Omar credit for that. It’s not like he intentionally built an awful team so that his first round pick would be protected when he signed a type-A free agent.

  • Rob in CT

    Now, if St. Louis resigns Holliday, I’ll be a happy camper (not as happy as I’d be were Holliday a Yankee, but pretty happy).

    About time the Mets did something. Not sure they’ll end up liking this contract much, though.

    • Mike Pop

      Read the recent Fangraphs write up on the Yankees.

      Tells you exactly why the Yankees shouldn’t sign Holliday. Great, great read.

      • Rob in CT

        I read, and commented. Twice. I largely agree with it. That doesn’t change the fact that having Holliday in LF (setting aside those pseky contract details) would be sweet.

  • Salty Buggah

    Crasnick says “Bay’s vesting option could bring the overall value of his deal to slightly more than $80 million over five years.”

    • Mike Pop

      Damn, they had that 80 million and didn’t go after Lackey as hard. Wow.

      • Reggie C.

        Meh. From what I heard the Lackey – Boston signing happened and closed so fast that the Mets simply had no time to counter. It appeared to me that Lackey had no interest leaving the AL.

        • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

          That’s odd. If you’re a fringe 2/3 starter with injury issues and slightly declining peripherals, I’d expect you to want to stay the hell out of the AL.

          • Ed

            Why does it matter which league he’s in? This is his big payday, odds are he’s not getting another huge contract after this. The Mets probably wouldn’t significantly outbid the Red Sox, so go for the team that’s more likely to be in the playoffs.

            • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

              I don’t mean specifically in Lackey’s case. I wasn’t clear, that’s my bad. You’re right, due to his age and the length of the deal he has, the league doesn’t matter so much.

              I meant as a generality that if you’ve racked up some injuries and have declining peripherals, you’d probably want to stay out of the AL if you’d be up for another contract at some point.

          • Reggie C.

            Lackey must really like the chowdah. Hopefully he eats that shit every day this offseason and shows up as a flabby as Brad Penny did last year.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          I liek the clause in Lackey’s contract that says if he misses “significant time” with his previous elbow problem from any year he plays 2015 at league minimum.
          It will be fun to see what he and his agent and what the Red Sox FO considers “siginificant time.

          • Ed

            I can’t imagine the Sox wanting a clause like that and not putting in definitive language.

            The actual contract probably has a specific number of days on the DL to trigger it, but whoever broke the news of the clause didn’t hear the specifics.

          • Zack

            “2015 club option at Major League minimum salary if Lackey misses significant time with surgery for pre-existing elbow injury in 2010-14″

            http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....d-sox.html

            I think surgery is the key word there, he can be on the DL all year like Marte but if he doesnt have surgery then the clause doesnt kick in.

          • Reggie C.

            I’m sure “significant time” is defined in the contract. That’s a pretty material clause to have inserted w/out encapsulating language. It’d behoove Lackey to have that term defined and i’m sure his agent realized it.

            • Doug

              Cot’s, which is usually on point with contract details, does not even say what “significant time” is.

              Maybe it really was left open-ended. But I agree, something like this probably has been worked out.

              • Ed

                Cot’s doesn’t list, but that site is based on media reports. Give it some time and more details will probably come out.

      • Ed

        If the money was close, and you had no strong feelings for or against either team, wouldn’t you pick the Red Sox over the Mets?

    • Salty Buggah

      If so, I would say this a bad deal.

    • Drew

      I don’t get it… and that’s before I even consider all the potential FA’s next year.

  • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

    I’ve had this conversation with Mondesi a hundred times (possible hyperbole), but I’m disappointed we didn’t offer Damon arbitration. I’ve wavered a bit on this (first for arb., then against, now for), but the more time that passes the more I agree with Congressman that Damon wouldn’t have taken 1/$16 million with only a week to decide, and a market still undetermined.

    We’d still have the option to re-sign him for a fair price, or collect the picks (only Andy and possibly Januz (!) match my excitement over the draft).

    Realistically, what teams can be in on Damon now?

    Yankees, Giants, Cardinals, Braves, possibly the Mariners? I’d think all of those teams would give serious pause to Damon because of his defensive liabilities and how his numbers would decline due to the lack of YS3. To me, it looks like the Yankees, Giants may be the only potential suitors.

    • Drew

      Eh, 16 million would be a gross overpayment. When you offer arb you need to be comfortable with the fact that they may accept, Cash probably wasn’t comfortable with that possibility.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

        Right. That’s my initial reason for being against it, since I felt it was somewhat likely he might have accepted and that wasn’t worth the possibility of getting picks if he signed somewhere else. Now, as dangerous as it is, I may have underestimated how unlikely it is for Damon to take a one year without seeing how the market developed.

        I’m not that disappointed and I fully understand why he wasn’t offered, but perhaps it’s a misread considering what they know about Damon, Boras and the market conditions.

      • Johan Iz My Brohan

        Kind of why I think the Yankees get screwed when its comes to arbitration. This is where FAs know that the money is. Tthe Yankees offer a lot of years to go along with that money, so when a FA is 36+ (like Damon) their market suddenly decreases, they want to come back because nobody else may take them.

        • Drew

          Yeah but next year it should be on our side if Javy pitches well.

      • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        How comfortable do you have to be, though? 100% certainty is extremely rare, and really barely ever exists if it does at all. What odds do you need in order to make the gamble? There has to be a line where you’re willing to make the gamble or not. I’d argue that for the Yankees, that line was too far on the conservative end of the spectrum when they considered Damon’s situation.

        I don’t necessarily agree with your assessment that you have to be “comfortable with the fact that they may accept.” That’s too black and white, there’s a significant gray area here. I’m not comfortable with paying Damon $15M for one year, but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t have offered him arbitration.

    • Anksy

      You can probably cross the Giants off since they just sign DeRosa and still have to go to Arb with Lincecum.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

        I hear DeRosa is more likely for 3B with Sandoval moving to 1B.

        • Salty Buggah

          Yea but Damon will struggle there as that park hurts lefties.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

            Agreed. That doesn’t mean with a weak market for Damon they wouldn’t make some sort of run. I’m just trying to figure out possible suitors with a need and possibly a decent bit of cash to toss at him.

            There’s not a lot there. If you look at his career line (his 2009 road line is almost exactly what his career line is), for a one-year deal of around $7 million, if they can afford it, would greatly boost their lineup and provide some modicum of protection. Yeah, his defense will be poor, especially because their LF is probably as spacious as LF in YS3, but they may look into him.

            Who else is there if the Cards sign Holliday? Braves? Mariners?

        • Evil Empire

          Yeah but $$$.

          I think RAB was discussing that Giants are already projected to go slightly over 2009′s payroll due to Lincecum’s guaranteed gigantic arb. raise or multi-year deal he’ll get, and how the Giants wanted to remain at near 2009′s dollars. So even at a discount, Damon *may* not be cheap enough for SF to sign. And like I’ve said a few times, Damon in Giant’s stadium (whose name I ALWAYS forget) wouldn’t help him keep beating father time.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

            Agreed. I’m struggling here to think of other potential teams willing to sign him.

            Giants semi-fit. But there’s really no team that really seems to work. Any thoughts?

            • pat

              It would be funny if Minaya signed Damon to be his primary DH.

    • Andy in Sunny Daytona

      My favorite days of the year:
      1. December 28th. Melmas
      2. July 2nd. International Signing Day.
      3. First week of June, Rule IV Draft Days.
      4. February 15th. RAB birthday? (I maybe wrong)
      5. July 31st. Trade deadline and my birthday.
      6. February 6th. Bob Marley’s birthday.
      7. Every other day. Just a good time for a drink.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

        Melmas? Not sure what that is, but spare Bob Marley’s birthday, all of those are great days. Especially IFA signing day and Draft day.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          NOT SURE WHAT THAT IS??? Melvin Croussett’s birthday. DUHHH!

          • scooter

            Don’t forget Little Melmas – January 9th – when the 3 Wise Scouts visited Melvin

            • Andy in Sunny Daytona

              You’re on point, scooter. And I like it.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

            It’s the “Mas” part that threw me off. I looked it up in Spanish dictionaries and everything.

            FAIL on my part. Common sense took the day off.

    • Ed

      He wouldn’t get $16m. Remember, arbitration requires you to justify your demands based on what other, similar players made. There’s no recent deals he can point to as a comparison to justify it. $10m ballpark is more likely.

      I think the Granderson trade was key to this all. With the trade, the Yankees desire for Damon went down a lot. We didn’t know it, but at the time the trade discussions were pretty far along. With that trade seeming likely, Cashman probably didn’t want to end up potentially locked into Damon.

      • Drew

        No one has ever gotten a pay cut in arbitration.

        • Ed

          Yes, they have. Ancient article, but it proves you wrong:

          link

          It’s just not common, because free agents rarely accept arbitration, and in pre-free agent years, usually when a pay cut is warranted, the player has fallen enough that they are non-tendered.

          • Drew

            Ah true. My bad. Still, it’s very unlikely. That 10 million figure you threw out there just doesn’t jive. JD would have had a raise not a 3 million dollar pay cut.

            • Ed

              Based on what?

              The Yankees would compare him to Ibanez, Abreu, Bradley, Burrell, and Dunn, using that to say he deserves at most about $10m per year.

              Damon would justify a raise based on what? Trying to claim that he’s similar to Jason Bay?

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

        All of that is true, but has there ever been a player who got significantly less than their last season’s salary after hitting arbitration, especially after arguably their best offensive season?

        Regarding Gradnerson, yeah that’s definitely the caveat to this whole thing. It changes the dynamics of the whole market even, not just for Damon. I’m still unsure as to when the Granderson deal was started. Damon would have had until Dec. 7th to accept the arb. offer. The Grandy deal was done on the 9th, I think.

        • Ed

          All of that is true, but has there ever been a player who got significantly less than their last season’s salary after hitting arbitration, especially after arguably their best offensive season?

          I don’t know. Free agents accepting arbitration is really rare. When they do, they almost always agree to a contract before the hearing. I doubt there were many opportunities for something like that to happen.

          I’m still unsure as to when the Granderson deal was started.

          There have been reports that Cashman started the discussions during the World Series.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

            Wow. I had no idea talks had gone on for that long. Interesting. Thanks, Ed!

    • Frank

      I really don’t think Damon comes back. First, the Yanks already replaced his lefty bat and Matsui’s with NJ and Garnderson. The Yanks really need a RH bat for balance in the lineup. I see them getting someone like Reed Johnson or maybe Marlon Byrd, or perhaps trade for someone like Rajai Davis or Cody Ross.

      • Granderslam

        What do you think we’d have to give up to get Ross?

        • JMK aka The Overshare’s Excessive Back Hair Complex

          1st born child, Motorola Droid.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          Cody Ross or Ross from Friends?

          Cody Ross = too much

          Ross from Friends = The promise that he will be the new WB Mason guy. Who but?

    • pat

      I know it’s not as cut and dry as this but I’d rather have Javy and NJ than Damon at this juncture. However small it was, there was still a chance Damon could have accepted arb and we most likely wouldn’t have been able to trade for Vazquez and sign NJ. A first round pick should he sign elsewhere would have been nice, but I’d much rather have JV and NJ.

  • http://twitter.com/PerminioNeto Permínio Neto

    I just want to see how this 5th year option vests, it will eventually dictate wether it was a solid or a bad deal.
    And man, Holliday wants to be a Yankee so badly that I think he might take a considerable discount. His dad must be talking him in to it.

  • Tico

    The problem with the arbitration scenario is that he definitely accepts. The teams willing to sign JD shrink even faster if there’s draft pick compensation attached to him. 14 million+ is way over market for Johhny.

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think you’re misunderstanding the arbitration process. If the Yanks had offered arbitration, Damon couldn’t look around, today, and say ‘wow, I’m not getting a better deal in the market, I better accept that arbitration offer and play for the Yanks for one year and $14M.’ He would have had to have made the decision to accept or decline the arbitration offer on December 7th, 7 days after the Yanks made the offer. If he had declined, on December 7th, and then subsequently found the market for his services to be weak, it wouldn’t hurt the Yankees at all. Eventually he’d sign somewhere on some bad contract and the Yanks would collect their draft picks.

      • Mike Bk

        you are correct about the arb process. the only thing left out is if because he would have been a type A if he would have become like Hudson or Juan Cruz last year where teams stayed away from signing him for a long time.

        • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

          Yeah, but that wouldn’t matter to the Yanks. Either he’d retire (highly unlikely) and the Yanks would be in the same position they’re in today, or he’d take a bad contract (highly likely) somewhere else, and the Yanks would get the picks. If he declined arbitration and then sat on the market for a long time that would be his problem, not the Yankees’.

  • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

    Ummm… The Dakota Fanning link in the “you might like” box under the post is interesting. “You might like” box: You’re doing it wrong.

    • http://threequarters.cementhorizon.com/archives/kool%20aid%20man.bmp The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

      And now it’s a link to some article in Foreign Policy magazine about flooding.

  • Peedlum

    So he left Boston for $6M (reports were a 4 year, $60M offer) and the 5th year option? Heh.