Archive for December, 2009
Olney: Behind closed doors, the honest truth
Posted by: | CommentsAs Mike noted earlier today, the Yankees Brain Trust has assembled in Tampa to begin preparing for next week’s Winter Meetings. One name bound to come up — as it has numerous times this week — is Roy Halladay. The Blue Jays want to trade him, and the Yankees have the pieces to acquire him.
As Halladay’s name has been the most talked-about this Hot Stove League, we have a general sense of what the Blue Jays want from a potential trade partner. Since the team has to replace one of its most beloved players who also happens to be a high-impact player, Toronto wants a Major League-ready arm and a top hitting prospect. Yankee fans have filled in the gaps for this to mean Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes along with Jesus Montero or Austin Jackson. That’s not an unreasonable expectation for Toronto’s initial demand.
When or if a trade goes down, Toronto’s price will come down, and with Halladay’s desire to see this wrapped up before Spring Training, the Yanks can wait out the Blue Jays. It’s beginning to look like The Son of Johan Santana. But not quite, as Buster Olney writes today.
In one of his better blog posts in recent months, Olney challenges the Yankees to be perfectly honest with themselves. We know that they publicly say Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes are both starters with high ceilings, but after a few years of watching the pair develop, Olney wants the baseball experts in the organization to lay it on the line. I quote at length:
But here are a couple of things that are different since the Santana talks: Hughes and Chamberlain. They are two years older, two years further along, with (generally) two more years of major league service time. Both players will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time after next season. Hughes, 23, is coming off a year in which he demonstrated that he could be a shut-down reliever during the regular season — he struck out 96 in 86 innings, with a 3.04 ERA — before he struggled in October. Chamberlain, 24, had flashes of excellence as a starter, but generally was erratic, before finishing his year with some strong outings in the postseason.
If I were sitting in Brian Cashman‘s chair, I would identify the smartest pitching people I have on my staff, whether it be manager Joe Girardi or pitching coach Dave Eiland or others, and I would ask them two questions: What are Hughes and Chamberlain now, and what do you think they will be going into the future?
In other words, do you think in three years they will be middle relievers? Do you think they will be dominant closers? Do you think they will settle in as back-of-the-rotation starters, or do you think they will be frontline AL East starters?
And if the smart people that Cashman trusts believe that Hughes and/or Chamberlain will be anything other than (A) dominant closers, or (B) No. 2-type AL East starters, well, then I’d call Toronto immediately and be ready to talk about trading one or perhaps even both of the young pitchers.
Olney is spot on right here. For three years, we’ve been touting the Big Three and the youth movement, but at some point, the Yankees have to recognize when to cash in some of their chips. I don’t know if Roy Halladay is the right move to make; I don’t know if now is the right time. After all, we can’t consider Joba or Phil disappointments, let alone busts, until years have gone by, and it’s very challenging to predict the baseball future.
But if the Yankees’ experts — if the men and women assembled in Tampa — are not sold on a stellar future for either of these young players, the time to make a move is nigh. As pitchers go, they don’t come much better than Roy Halladay, and the Yanks must ask, “What price an ace?”
Breaking News: Chapman is a risk
Posted by: | CommentsIn piece for SI.com, Melissa Segura wrote about how Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman first got involved with baseball and how he ultimately came to defect, though more importantly she touched on the weaknesses in his game. If you don’t have time to read the 3,000 word article, then check out The Artist’s recap at TYU. I highly recommend checking out Seguara’s original article, though.
This is a common MSM timeline for these perceived super-prospects. First comes the absurd amount of hype, then comes the poo-pooing of their game by emphasizing their weaknesses, and the final stage is the subtle admission that the guy is extremely talented, but not perfect. Stephen Strasburg went through it, Justin Upton went through it, Joe Mauer went through, even A-Rod went through it. Chapman is riskier than most, but the potential reward is the greatest we’ve seen for an international amateur since Felix Hernandez.
Mets asked for Matsui’s medicals
Posted by: | CommentsNPB Tracker passes along a report (translated article) that says the Mets have asked agent Arn Tellem for the medical reports on Hideki Matsui‘s knees. We’ve already seen some speculation that the Mets could bring Godzilla to Flushing, possibly to play first base. Despite his fantastic year with the stick, Matsui is a man without many options. There are more available DH’s than DH spots (like every winter), so Homer-deki needs all the leverage he can get, even though he’s going to use it against the Yankees.
Power meetings begin in Tampa
Posted by: | CommentsTomorrow will mark the one month anniversary of the Yankees capturing their 27th World Championship, but today Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi will meet with ownership in Tampa to discuss their proposed offseason plan and the 2010 budget in advance of next week’s winter meetings. Cashman, Girardi, and basically anyone with a voice in the front office met a few weeks ago to hammer out the details, and the first step of their plan was to decline to offer arbitration to all of their free agents.
“We’ll talk about some more things and gear up for the winter meetings,” Girardi said of today’s meeting with the Steinbrenners. “You want to know what you’re going to have when you go into spring training. As we saw last year, a lot of guys didn’t sign until real late, so I know it’s going to take time.”
Unlike last season, when starting pitching was priority number one, two, and three, the Yankees don’t seem to have placed much urgency on filling any of their holes. By this time last year, they had already offered CC Sabathia a massive contract and stolen Nick Swisher out from under Kenny Williams’ nose, but this year we haven’t had any actual non-rumor news at all. Being the defending World Champs allows to the team to be patient, and that’s going to be the theme of the offseason of the Yanks: patience.
Even though leftfield and designated hitter are legitimate concerns, free agent and trade options are plentiful enough that the team doesn’t have to go out and make a big splash early. Scott Boras won’t take accept any contract offer for Matt Holliday or Johnny Damon before giving Cashman a call. Arn Tellem will likely do the same with Hideki Matsui, and frankly any agent with half a brain would give the Yankees a chance to top any offer for their clients. Roy Halladay set a Spring Training deadline to be traded? Good, that gives Cashman three months to wait out Alex Antopoulos.
Aside: Here’s my mental image of Cashman during trade negotiations.
Despite their aggressiveness last winter, the Yankees have put themselves in a position to let the offseason come to them. I want to see free agent signings and big trades as much as the next guy, but the Yanks aren’t in such dire straits that they need to go out and declare that they’re the biggest kid in the playground like they did last offseason. Just be patient. The moves will come when they come, and they will be glorious.
A shorter postseason but with more games
Posted by: | CommentsWhen the Yankees wrapped up their World Series title nearly a month ago, they did so after what seemed to be an eternity of post-season baseball. The playoffs stretched on and on and on, and when Robinson Cano fielded the final out of the World Series, the Yanks had played 15 games over a span of 31 calendar days. It was a problem.
The flow of the playoffs for anyone trying to watch or anyone trying to play just seemed wrong. The Yanks and Twins played a three-game set over five days and never faced off on back-to-back days. Then, although both the Angels and Yankees had wrapped up their respective Division Series, the two teams sat through four off days just to accommodate television schedules. The ALCS was a six-game set that spanned ten days.
By the end of the playoffs, the Yankees had played on back-to-back nights just five times and played three games in a row just once. It resembled a regular season basketball schedule more than a baseball schedule, and it allowed the Yanks to use just three starters the whole way through. Baseball had managed to turn the playoffs into something nearly unrecognizable. It did not resemble the day-in, day-out pace of a 162-game regular season played over approximately 185 days.
The obvious culprit is television. In 2007, at the request of TBS and FOX, Bud Selig added an extra day off to the LCS rounds and stretched out the Division Series as well. Instead of the 2-2-1 five-game sets and the 2-3-2 seven-game sets, the Division Series were a mess, and the LCS round would be played as a 2-2-1-2 set barring rain outs. Baseball would stretch endlessly into November.
With his confirmation as the new head of the Players Association yesterday, Michael Weiner said that the playoff format needs to change. “Everybody’s in agreement that the postseason schedule needs some adjustment,” Weiner said. “I’m a hockey fan as well as a baseball fan, and the pace of play this postseason was more of the way you expect a hockey season to go than a baseball season to go.”
His proposal — and one that should be endorsed by both Selig and the TV executives — involves lengthening the division series to seven games and shortening the overall time it takes to conclude the playoffs. It should include variable start dates for the LCS and World Series rounds based upon the conclusions of the prior rounds and will feature fewer off-days. “There is a lot of sentiment for a seven-game division series,” Weiner said. “I think a properly constructed postseason schedule could accommodate three seven-game series but still have it extend over a shorter period of time than what happened this year.”
The seven-game series would even the playing field and allow for a better representation of a team’s true ability while providing higher gate totals and seemingly better ratings. It just makes sense.
For now, though, this plan will remain one on paper. The PA and owners won’t adjust the format until the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after the 2011 season, and then, we should expect to see some playoff changes. Both sides should agree that it would be for the good of the game to streamline October and improve the playoff flow.
How serious are the Yankees about Lackey?
Posted by: | CommentsRoy Halladay has the headlines right now. Every major national outlet features a story about him on their MLB page. SI.com even has an homage to Halladay titled “The Race for Roy.” We’ve written about him just a few times over the last two weeks. When the best pitcher in baseball hits the trade market, he’s bound to capture our attention for a while. Eventually, though, the Halladay trade rumors will die down. Next up on the list of players connected to the Yankees could be John Lackey.
Though he’s taken a backseat to Halladay so far this off-season, Lackey is the best starting pitcher on the market. There are others with as much talent — Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Ben Sheets at their best can be as good, even better than Lackey, but they’re not as sure a bet as Lackey. Even tough he’s missed time the past two seasons, he’s still managed to pitch over 160 innings in each. Good innings, too. Even in a depressed free agent market he’ll get paid.
By not offering arbitration to any of their free agents, the Yankees have, like last winter, kept free the most possible payroll. This might have been a move related to the individual players — i.e., they thought that there was a good chance the player would accept and they didn’t want to pay the player an amount determined by an arbiter. But it might be that they want available payroll so they can replace one of their departing free agents with a new, younger player. Lackey makes plenty of sense in this regard. Adding him to the Yankees rotation could solidify it for 2010 and beyond.
If the Yankees do seek Lackey’s services, they’ll face plenty of competition. The rumors might be light now, but at the right price the Red Sox, Phillies, Mariners, Rangers, Brewers, and of course the Angels could be interested. It’s tough to say how high any of them will go, but it’s a good bet that, if they’re interested, the Yankees would be near the top of that pack. As they showed with A.J. Burnett last winter, they don’t like being outbid.
Jon Heyman talked up the Yanks’ interest in Lackey a month ago.1 “Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey,” he wrote. Whose word that is I don’t know, but it sounds reasonable enough. Lackey’s stuff might not be as imposing as Burnett’s, but he’s generally been healthier, has comparable ERAs, and has better control than Burnett. If this were two years ago, Lackey might see $100 million. But in this market, I’ll buy that a five-year, ~$80 million deal is the best he’ll do.
Assuming they structure a potential deal the same as Burnett’s, the 2010 payroll would be $186.8 million, plus arbitration raises to Melky Cabrera, Brian Bruney, Chad Gaudin, and maybe Sergio Mitre, plus a left fielder and a DH, plus possibly Andy Pettitte, plus roughly half a million dollars for every other player to fill out the roster. In other words, if the Yankees are truly interested in Lackey, they’ll have to commit to a higher payroll in 2010, something they’ve hinted isn’t likely. Not only that, but as we’ve discussed, it would mean a commitment to keep payroll above $200 million for most of Lackey’s deal.
Lackey’s most obvious destination remains the Angels. They have only $77 million committed to 2010 payroll, though they do owe first-year arbitration raises to six players, including Erick Aybar, Jered Weaver, and Joe Saunders. Even so, their rotation would be severely weakened without Lackey. Since they stand to lose the most, I think they’ll make a serious run to bring him back. If they can spend $18.5 million per season on Torii Hunter, they can do something similar for John Lackey.
When the off-season began, I didn’t think the Yankees would be too serious about Lackey. He’s the best free agent pitcher, sure, but with the Yankees payroll commitments and the risky nature of giving pitchers long-term contracts — and especially after doing it twice last off-season — I didn’t think the Yankees would do it again. After they declined to offer arbitration to any of their free agents, though, I’m beginning to wonder. Lackey would cost them only money, rather than money and prospects, and he would fit in perfectly behind A.J. Burnett in the rotation.
I wouldn’t count on the Yankees signing John Lackey. They have plenty already committed to the 2010 payroll and still have a few holes to fill. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a serious run, nor would I be disappointed if they signed him. Paying your top three pitchers almost $60 million per season isn’t ideal, but if they’re quality pitchers and the team is winning, I doubt they’ll mind much.
1And Lackey isn’t even a Boras client. (Up)
Open Thread: A Tribute To Old Reliable
Posted by: | CommentsI am far too young to remember the days of Tommy Henrich, but Old Reliable sure has a special place in the hearts of so many Yankee fans. The following poem was written by lifelong Yankee fan Joe Ribando, Sr., and was sent is to us by his son Joe Jr.
A Tribute To Old Reliable
by Joe Ribando, Sr.
December 2, 2009Sad news was heard on this December day
Tommy Henrich has passed away.
A Yankee great of the past, as the story is told
He left this earth at 96 years old.Why remember a player of days long ago
When teams played hard, not just for show?
When traditions were built on the field so green
Rooted in guts and drive, and skills oh so keen.A great player in April, June and September
But his post season record will long be remembered.
Mickey Owens dropped strike in the series of ’41
The batter? Yes Henrich, he was the one.Or perhaps it was the classic of 1949
When Tommy hit the walk off homer, the first ever, so fine!
To four series rings he helped bring to fruition
Adding to the lore and mystique of Yankee tradition.Thirteen seasons in pinstripes, part of so many great teams
To be a Yankee for life is as great as it seems.
Even better is the respect bestowed by your peers,
Of their confidence in you as a player and a man without fear.As time moves on few fans remember the past
Of the paths that were paved and honors so vast.
But the biggest honor of all, a title undeniable
Is to be known forever as the great Yankee, “Old Reliable.”
R.I.P., Tommy.
* * *
Here’s your open thread for the night. The Knickerbockers are in Orlando, and The Quest For 0-82 returns home to face the Mavericks. Anything goes, just be nice.
Is Damon a fit for the Giants?
Posted by: | CommentsAndrew Baggarly of the Mercury News assesses some potential Giants targets this off-season. We know that that the team needs bats, especially in the outfield. Could Johnny Damon be part of their plans?
Johnny Damon is interesting. He could address the Giants’ leadoff dilemma and he certainly fits the profile of a veteran that Sabean loves: A winner and all-around player who’s battle-tested in playoff environments. But the Giants didn’t have any conversations with anyone in Scott Boras’ camp at the GM meetings in Chicago, and I don’t think they’ll overbid for his services. Plus, while I’m told Damon would go anywhere, I have a hard time believing he’d just pack up and go to an NL team for the first time in his career.
Baggarly notes that owner Bill Neukom “has prioritized the farm system,” which means the Giants could tread lightly with the bigger bats, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, because both would cost them their 24th pick. I’m not sure that will be an obstacle in adding a significant bat. If the Giants think that either player could turn their team into a serious contender, the draft pick cost becomes marginal.
Concerning Damon, he might not be a great fit for the Giants. Much of Damon’s value in 2009 came from home runs, and most of them came at Yankee Stadium, where the right field porch sits just 314 feet away. AT&T Park suppresses home runs (though is not really a pitchers’ park otherwise), especially for lefties — Bonds just made it look easy. True, he’d still provide the Giants value, but is he potentially more valuable to the Giants than he is to the Yankees? I’m not so sure. The Giants might inquire, but I don’t see them offering more than the Yanks, unless the Yanks either don’t want Damon back (for whatever reason) or lowball him.
We’re going to see Damon’s name connected to many teams this off-season. It’s part of having Scott Boras as your agent. Some destinations will make more sense than others, but in this case I don’t think the Giants will make a serious push for Damon. While he’d help, the home run suppression at AT&T Park makes him less valuable to them. They might even seek out Mike Cameron over Damon.
Baseball America’s Early Rule 5 Draft Preview
Posted by: | CommentsThe Rule 5 Draft is just eight days away, yet Baseball America posted what they’re calling their Early Rule 5 Draft Preview today (sorry, subscriber only). I’m guessing that means we’ll get another, more comprehensive preview sometime within the next week. Anyway, they listed ten players that could end up being selected, two of whom are Colin Curtis and Kevin Whelan.
Curtis was said to have “improved his stock greatly in the Arizona Fall League … by adjusting his stance and finally driving the ball,” while Whelan could get picked because of his “92-94 mph fastball and plus-plus split-finger pitch.” Grant Duff was mentioned as another interesting name to watch in a sidebar, and I’ll add that Zach Kroenke is almost a lock to get picked because he’s a living, breathing lefthander that has had success in Triple-A.
Getting picked is one thing, sticking on the 25-man big league roster all season long is another. None of the above players would be a significant loss to the Yankees, especially the relievers since they have so much bullpen depth, but I’m not convinced any of them can stick on the ML roster all season. You might see a trade worked out though, something similar to last year’s Chase Wright-Eric Fryer swap.
Pondering a pinstriped Halladay but only for a year
Posted by: | CommentsOne of the Yanks’ primary objections to any trade for Roy Halladay is the need to, in effect, pay twice to acquire the pitcher. The team will have to send some highly-touted prospects and a young Major League pitcher to the Blue Jays for the rights to Halladay, and then the Yanks would have to sign him to a long-term contract extension as the pitcher sits just one season away from a potential free agent payday.
We have, of course, been down this road before. In December 2007, the Yankees opted against acquiring Johan Santana because the team knew CC Sabathia would be available for just money after the 2008 season. This year, the team has been hesitant to leap into the Halladay fray because they know some top pitchers will hit free agency in both 2010 and 2011. Even if Doc is better and more durable than Santana, the Yankees aren’t going to change an approach that led to a World Series title.
But what if the Yankees only have to pay once for Halladay this year while gaining the opportunity to recoup some of the cost? Joel Sherman presents a one-year scenario in The Post today, and it goes a little something like this:
[O]ne faction of the Yankee front office has advocated trying to trade for Halladay, but not extend his pact. That way they would get Halladay on a very good contract for 2010 ($16 million) and then offer him arbitration after the season to secure two draft picks as a way to recoup some of the prospects given up in the trade.
According to Sherman, this idea is “not a strategy with much traction” within the Yankee Front Office, but I like the approach. It carries with it an idea that the Yankees would not have to give up as much to the Blue Jays if they aren’t requesting a negotiating window. It would simply be a player-for-prospects swap that would net the Yankees Roy Halladay’s age 33 season and the potential to pick up two first-round draft picks in the 2011 draft. With the Blue Jays are reportedly asking for a Major League-ready pitcher and an impact bat, the draft picks would definitely help offset the loss of young players.
Furthermore, Toronto could prefer this approach as well. What happens, for example, if the Blue Jays grant a team a negotiating window, but the team and Halladay can’t come to terms? Sherman, in a blog post, reported that Halladay is interested in Santana/Sabathia dollars, but Halladay will be five years older than those two were when they received their lucrative deals. It’s easy to see how a negotiating window could result in no trade.
There are, however, a few too many roadblocks for me to believe that a one-year rental would be a viable solution. First, the Blue Jays would have to feel that the Yankees’ offer remains the strongest even if other teams want the negotiating window. Perhaps, though, the other teams — assumed to be the Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels and Phillies — aren’t too keen on giving too many years and too much money for a 33-year-old pitcher. If no one wants a negotiating window, the Jays may not have that leverage. Right now, no one knows.
The other major problem is Roy Halladay’s full no-trade clause and his desire for some stability. With the no-trade clause, Halladay can veto any trade, and if a team is not willing to give him the dollars, he will simply reject the trade and file for free agency. Additionally, Halladay knows that the next deal he signs will be his last big contract, and he’ll want the stability and the guaranteed money up front. For pitchers, the end is just one arm injury away.
In the end, the idea of a one-year marriage with Roy Halladay is very appealing. It remains, however, a long-shot to come as the end to this saga. And so we wait for the Halladay sweepstakes to take shape.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
