Archive for December, 2009
Football Open Thread
Posted by: | CommentsThe Jets will take on Matt Ryan and Michael Turner (both active) and the rest of the Atlanta Falcons in the snowy Meadowlands this afternoon, though you Giants fans will have to wait until tomorrow to watch your team. Talk about any and all of the games here.
Yanks to match any team’s offer to Wang?
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe, 15 teams have shown interest in Chien-Ming Wang. That sounds about right. Any team with contention hopes should have at least called to see what he and his agent, Alan Nero, seek for the 2010 season. The most interesting part of the one-paragraph blurb resides in a parenthetical aside, when Cafardo mentions that the Yankees “would like to match any final offer.” I’m sure there’s a limit on the offer, but I doubt any team offers more than the split minor league/major league contract the Yankees proposed after non-tendering Wang.
As for Wang’s rehab schedule, he’s been throwing long toss since December 1, and will visit with Dr. James Andrews after the new year to “get an updated timeframe on his comeback.” Nero is still talking about an early May return for Wang.
The perils of projecting a young player
Posted by: | CommentsIn 2003, it seemed as though Scott Podsednik had broken out. Nine years after the Texas Rangers drafted him in the third round, he had a monster first full season in the bigs. Over 628 plate appearances he hit .314/.379/.443, ranking him second among NL center fielders in OBP and third in wOBA. It had been a long journey for Podsednik, a failed Rule 5 pick who eventually hit minor league free agency, and then waived by the team who signed him. But by 2003 Brewers fans had reason to be excited.
The production didn’t carry over to 2004, though. Podsednik, who had a .362 BABIP in 2003, saw that drop to .275 in 2004, which hampered his overall numbers. He fell to .244/.313/.364 and ranked fourth worst among qualifying NL center fielders in wOBA — and was further from the fifth worst than he was the absolute worst. He recovered to have a good season in 2005, but he’s been an inconsistent contributor since then. He had a hard time finding work in 2009, and is again many teams’ Plan B or C this winter.
Let this be a cautionary tale to those who extol the virtues of Brett Gardner. Yes, he put up good numbers in limited playing time during his first full big league season, but that’s hardly an indicator of what he’ll do next year. He had only 284 plate appearances in 2009, less than half the number of a full-time outfielder. That, plus his limited exposure in 2008, makes it difficult to project how he’ll hit in 2010. In other words, I wouldn’t buy CHONE, ZiPS, Bill James, or any other projection system on Gardner right now.
(Then again, I wouldn’t make any significant decisions based on projection engines. They might provide a good indicator of a player’s progression from year to year, but it’s nothing more than an indicator. This goes especially for young players, on whom we have much less available data.)
My main beef with the 2010 projections right now is how they assume Gardner will improve. Yes, that’s certainly possible. Many players improve in their second full major league seasons. But a player with Gardner’s skill set might find it difficult. Just look at his numbers in 2009 compared to Podsednik’s in 2003. They both had strikeout rates of around 16 percent, both had low isolated power marks (though Podsednik’s was about .020 better), and both had contact rates in the high 80s (though Gardner was about a percent better).
Podsednik and Gardner are similar in that they’re low-power, speedy center fielders who played to their strengths by taking a healthy number of walks — both had a walk rate of around 9 percent in their first full major league seasons. We often hear anecdotes of how this doesn’t bode well for the player’s future. Pitchers, unafraid of singles, will be more apt to throw strikes. Will this be true for Gardner?
It happened for Podsednik. In 2003 pitchers threw 49.8 percent of their pitches in the strike zone. In 2004 they threw him 56.2 percent in the zone. Podsednik maintained his contact rate, but predictably saw a dip in his walk percentage. He also hit far fewer line drives in 2004, dropping to 17.7 percent from 23.6 percent. That means more ground balls, which can be good, and more fly balls, detrimental for a low-power player like Podsednik. His fly ball rate rose by 3.5 percent and certainly factored in to his lower 2004 BABIP.
Brett Gardner, of course, is not Scott Podsednik. Maybe his second full season will play out differently than Podsednik’s. Maybe pitchers won’t make a similar adjustment, and Gardner can continue to walk at a good clip, allowing him to use his best asset, his speed, more frequently. But I don’t think that’s something we can count on. So many players of Gardner’s ilk — speedy, low power, mediocre contact rate — have struggled after initially succeeding.
So no, I don’t think that Gardner will be more valuable than Jason Bay in 2010. We have an idea of what Bay will produce. We do not really know what Gardner will do. Even though Gardner’s defense is easily superior to Bay’s, we still don’t have a good idea of how their offensive output will compare. I also think it’s way, way too early to just hand Gardner the center field job, especially after Melky Cabrera showed improvement in 2009. Yes, if his best case scenario plays out Gardner should get the nod over Melky. But it’s way, way, way too early to project that now. We just don’t have enough of an idea of how Gardner will produce over a full-time season.
For your own reference, here are three readily available projections on Gardner for 2010:
| AB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHONE | 357 | .266 | .351 | .375 |
| ZiPS | 387 | .253 | .328 | .344 |
| Bill James | 325 | .277 | .368 | .375 |
Snowstorm Open Thread
Posted by: | CommentsIs it actually snowing by any of you? It’s just flurries here in Bergen County, not really sticking. The snowstorm showed up, and even though it’s been a disappointment so far, it still shows some promise. I shall call it … Melancon.
Anyway, the Cowboys and Saints play at 8:20pm ET, but you need the NFL network to watch that one. The Isles, Devils, and Nets are all playing. You know how this works, so have at it.
Report: Damon came crawling back
Posted by: | CommentsVia T-Kep, Johnny Damon and Scott Boras came to the Yankees late Thursday and proposed a two year deal worth $20M. However, by then the Yanks had reached the point of no return with Nick Johnson, so Johnny was out of luck. Buster Olney noted this morning that some inside the organization were worried about Damon being unhappy next year after taking a big paycut, which makes sense.
Boras has definitely painted his client into a corner, as now Damon is stuck competing against two elite players at the same position on the open market, with not many clubs looking to pay them. Dems the breaks.
Biz Notes: Winter Classic, sponsorships, schedule changes
Posted by: | Comments
As Tom Kaminski in Chopper 880 continues to chart the demolition of Yankee Stadium, we have some business stories to tackle concerning the Yanks and their new home.
Will the Yankee Bowl interfere with a Winter Classic?
On New Years Day in Boston, the NHL will host its second annual Winter Classic. The Bruins and the Flyers will face off on a hockey rink in Fenway Park, and it will be very, very cold. Still, the event has been a boon for the beleaguered NHL, and the league would love to host a marquee event on the grandest stage in baseball. To that end, Sean Leahy of Puck Daddy explores just how soon it will be until Yankee Stadium could host the Winter Classic. The answer, unfortunately, is not too soon.
Leahy’s piece delves in depth into the inter-sport problems. Because the NHL requires a seven-day build time to prep the outdoor venue for a hockey game and because the Yanks have committed to hosting a bowl game and perhaps another college football game at Yankee Stadium over the next few winters, the schedules simply do not work out. Leahy notes, though, that hockey could either host a New York Winter Classic at CitiField or the new football stadium in New Jersey. Otherwise, the league could build up the event in smaller markets and make a New York debut on New Years Day in 2014.
I’m not a huge hockey fan, but it would be great to see the Winter Classic come to New York and Yankee Stadium. Bringing the NHL’s top regular season event to baseball’s center stage would truly be special.
Yomiuri Shimbun out but 2010 sponsorships top 2009 figures
On Friday, Sports Business Journal had an update on the state of the Yanks’ sponsorships. After winning the World Series, the Yanks have seen their sponsorship rates for 2010 already surpass the 2009 figured. Team officials declined to name a price or the number of new sponsors, but Yankees COO Lonn Trost was pleased with the current pace of activity. “We have already exceeded last year’s sponsorship revenue and continue to track very well on that,” he said.
Unsurprisingly, SBJ notes that the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Japanese newspaper who had been advertising in the outfield since 2002, neglected to re-up their deal with the Yanks. While many are inclined to blame the departure of Hideki Matsui for the end of this deal, Trost told SBJ that Yomiuri had already declined to renew, citing a distressed global newspaper industry.
SBJ also notes that the Yanks are “performing several facility tweaks” to the new stadium but adds that the “second-year punch list is relatively small compared to those for other recently opened ballparks.” The trade notes that the grandstand will now include “party deck” but declined to reveal more. We’ll have more about that once we uncover the details.
Yankees, Sox adjust opening week schedule
Finally, we end with some news on the first week of the season. The Yankees and Red Sox have officially closed their two-day gap at the beginning of the year. Opening Day will still be on a Sunday night in early April in Boston, but game two of the season will now be on Tuesday, April 6. Game three will be Wednesday, April 7, and both teams will be off on Monday and Thursday. All three games that week will be at night, and temperatures are expected to be in the low 40s come first pitch. Starting the season in Boston at night strikes me as foolish, but that’s the way it goes.
The ‘…and left field’ gap
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Brian Cashman spoke on Day One of the Winter Meetings, he stressed the team’s priorities this off-season. “Pitching, pitching, pitching — and left field,” he said.
So far, it’s been a winter of mixed results. He re-signed Andy Pettitte to shore up one of those pitching spots, and he could still explore Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer. Either would be a good fit for the Yanks, but even without them, they have a stellar staff.
CC Sabathia summed up those feelings. “They don’t give us enough credit, I don’t think,” Sabathia said. “Everybody keeps talking about Boston now, Seattle now with Cliff and Felix [Hernandez], but I think we’ve got some pretty good guys in our clubhouse that can match up with anybody. They never talk about me or A.J. or Pettitte. I guess we like it like that. We’ll just keep sneaking up on people.”
With a front line of veterans, a back end of youngsters and many other potential fill-ins, the Yanks do not suffer from a lack of pitching. But what about Cashman’s final piece? What about that left field hole? With Johnny Damon on the way out — he and the Yankees remained approximately $6 million apart on a two-year deal — the Yankees’ left field situation is somewhat blurry.
In a way, as Tyler Kepner explores, the Yanks have plugged in some of their more glaring holes. Writes The Times scribe:
In the big picture, the Yankees are swapping two older left-handed hitters who made $26 million in 2009 (Damon and Hideki Matsui) for two younger left-handed hitters whose contracts average about $14 million in 2010 (Curtis Granderson and Johnson). They are replacing a speed guy and a slow guy with another speed guy and another slow guy.
The Yankees ultimately decided that Matsui was more of a health risk than Johnson. That notion would have been laughable a few years ago, when Matsui was an iron man and Johnson was brittle. But the Yankees feared that Matsui’s surgically repaired knees would only get worse, while Johnson seems to have no pre-existing injuries.
Johnson works the count well, a trait the Yankees value, and like Matsui, he excels against left-handers. Granderson does not, but he appealed to the Yankees for his defense, power and youth.
The Yankees had to contend with a budget this year, and so far, they’ve done a good job of finding younger and cheaper replacements for two of their stalwarts. Yet, left field remains a hole. If the season were to start tomorrow, Melky Cabrera would be the Yanks’ starting left fielder, and that is an inadequate solution. As a center fielder, Melky turned in an sOPS+ of 104. In other words, he was slightly better than the league average center fielder. As a left fielder, though, his .752 OPS would have been .028 below the league average for the position and would have ranked the Yanks 12th in the league at left field.
The Yanks could hide Melky’s bat in center over the last few years, and maybe they can do the same in left. His arm will play well there. But the team can’t expect Melky — or Brett Gardner, the more productive offensive player so far — to hold down left field. Chris over at iYankees thinks the team could find the money for Matt Holliday, and I have to image Cashman and Steinbrenner are considering it. After all, that “and left field” need isn’t going to fill itself.
Why it’s Duchscherer, Sheets, or stand pat with the pitching staff
Posted by: | CommentsFor a team whose priorities this off-season are pitching, pitching, pitching, the Yankees haven’t made many moves in that department. Re-signing Andy Pettitte has been their only pitching transaction, and while that’s an important one it doesn’t bolster the staff for the 2010 season. With the offense seemingly set, they will likely focus on pitching for the rest of the winter. But we could even see them stand pat in that department, if they don’t land one of two free agents.
Of the remaining free agent starters, only two make any sense for the Yankees. They’re also the two we’ve talked about since the off-season began: Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer. Anyone else would just provide depth, like Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin, and Al Aceves. That’s not a bad thing — the Yankees should look into acquiring as much pitching depth as they can afford. But Sheets and Duchscherer are the only two the Yankees should sign for the rotation.
Ben discussed the rotation situation last night, debunking an ESPN Radio report that claimed only one of Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain would be in the 2010 rotation. Brian Cashman cleared up the situation on Michael Kay’s radio show yesterday, and Steve from The Yankee Universe has the transcript, in which Cashman clarifies the misinterpretation of his words. ESPN, as it turns out, cherry picked a quote which, when put into the context of the question, doesn’t mean anything close to what they made it out to be.
Said Cashman on Kay’s show about the possibility of Hughes or Chamberlain starting the season in the bullpen:
If we went in with a starter that we actually like better, yeah. I have no problem with that. I mean we went into the playoffs with Hughes, Aceves and Chamberlain all in the bullpen. Why? Because we had guys we were giving the ball in the rotation , although it was a truncated rotation, we were giving the ball to guys we felt were more capable at that moment in time. So there’s no change in philosophy, as of right now, those guys are all starters. And if nothing changes, those guys are all starters. The question was ‘Well what if you get a starter?’ well, that means we have four, that means the remaining population competes for the final spot.
Who on the free agent market, other than Sheets or Duchscherer, could the Yankees possibly like better than the guys they already have? Chris from iYankees pointed to a GAKIII report mentioning Jarrod Washburn. Really? How can the Yankees possibly like Washburn more than the guys they have in house? Sure, he had a great first half, but he’s a fly ball pitcher who had the best outfield defense in the league behind him. His home run rate also dropped considerably, due mostly to a very low home run to fly ball ratio. Chances are he reverts to his career norms in 2010, which would not play well at all in Yankee Stadium.
Who else could they like more? Erik Bedard? He’s an injury case like Sheets and Duchscherer, and could provide as much upside, but his media aversion wouldn’t work well in New York. He remains perhaps the best possibility outside the aforementioned pair. Jon Garland? Same as Washburn, only he’s a righty, younger, and healthier. Doug Davis? Noah Lowry? Jason Marquis? Brett Myers? Joel Pineiro? I don’t see how any of them present the Yankees with better options. They’d just be fodder for depth, to be stashed away in the minors or in the bullpen. They’re not viable candidates to seriously compete for a rotation spot to start the season.
As it stands, the Yankees are fine with pitching. They’ll need to catch a few breaks, but they could go into the season with just a few tweaks and still have one of the league’s best teams. If they add a starter, it will probably one to demonstrably improve the rotation. For now, that appears to be Sheets and Duchscherer. Other options might work nice as depth, but as the British would say, they’d be redundancies.
Open Thread: Yankees All-Decade Team
Posted by: | CommentsThat’s right folks, more best of the decade stuff! If I had any foresight, I would have anticipated all of this and started a category for it, but alas. Today’s feature is the Yanks’ All-Decade team, provided by Scals at The Blue Workhorse. He provides a little blurb on each player, but I’ll trim it down and give you his roster:
C: Jorge Posada
1B: Jason Giambi
2B: Robinson Cano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Alex Rodriguez
LF: Johnny Damon
CF: Bernie Williams
RF: Bobby Abreu
DH: Hideki MatsuiSP: Andy Pettitte
SP: Mike Mussina
RP: Joba Chamberlain
CL: Mariano Rivera
Four of the everyday positions are obvious. You can make a good case for Alfonso Soriano over Cano at second, though I won’t argue it too much. As for the outfield, I’m going with Gary Sheffield in right over Abreu. In 347 games in pinstripes, Sheff hit .291-.383-.515 with 76 homers and more walks (183) than strikeouts (175). Abreu was “just” a .297-378-.465 hitter with 43 jacks and far more strikeouts (276) than walks (190) in 372 games with the Yanks. Sure, Sheff was a jerk, but he was damn productive jerk.
The two starting pitchers are pretty obvious, ditto Mo at the back end. But Joba as the reliever of the decade? Come on. The guy made just 50 relief appearances (60 IP) for the team, which barely qualifies as a full season’s worth of work for an elite reliever. Tom Gordon, on the other hand, was straight up dirrrty in his time with the Yanks. Two years, 159 appearances, 170.1 IP with a 2.38 ERA and 165 strikeouts. Joba has the wow factor, but Gordon was pretty clearly the team’s best non-Mo reliever during the aughts.
What do you guys think, disagree with anything else? Talk about that, or whatever else you want here. The Knicks, Nets, and Devils are all in action. Have at it.
By the Decade: Tino and the Giambino
Posted by: | CommentsOur Yankees by the Decade series continues today with a look at first base. After talking about the decade of Derek yesterday and Jorge’s time behind the dish on Wednesday. Today, we have an actual debate.
For this one, because the Yankees used 42 players at least once at first base, I limited our analysis to the guys who played at least 10 games at first over the decade. At some point or another, the Yankees decided to give these players somewhat regular playing time. It’s quite the list.
| Player | AB | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | HBP | K | GDP | BA | OBA | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Giambi | 1639 | 459 | 80 | 2 | 129 | 373 | 355 | 21 | 58 | 376 | 35 | .280 | .420 | .567 |
| Tino Martinez | 1436 | 376 | 69 | 6 | 64 | 246 | 126 | 13 | 12 | 210 | 38 | .262 | .325 | .452 |
| Mark Teixeira | 586 | 171 | 42 | 3 | 37 | 115 | 80 | 9 | 11 | 109 | 13 | .292 | .384 | .563 |
| Nick Johnson | 461 | 118 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 66 | 74 | 5 | 14 | 89 | 9 | .256 | .375 | .432 |
| Andy Phillips | 412 | 110 | 19 | 4 | 10 | 56 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 79 | 13 | .267 | .311 | .405 |
| Tony Clark | 243 | 54 | 12 | 0 | 16 | 48 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 90 | 6 | .222 | .300 | .469 |
| John Olerud | 162 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 5 | .284 | .371 | .401 |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | 160 | 45 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 2 | .281 | .356 | .450 |
| Wilson Betemit | 114 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 4 | .237 | .285 | .404 |
| Craig Wilson | 95 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 2 | .221 | .26 | .379 |
| Miguel Cairo | 94 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 2 | .277 | .310 | .351 |
| Josh Phelps | 63 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | .302 | .380 | .429 |
| Todd Zeile | 60 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | .217 | .333 | .417 |
| Shelley Duncan | 58 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | .224 | .318 | .379 |
| Nick Swisher | 40 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | .325 | .460 | .675 |
| Aaron Guiel | 27 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | .185 | .290 | .185 |
| Ron Coomer | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .208 | .269 | .208 |
| Richie Sexson | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | .250 | .367 | .417 |
| Luis Sojo | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .105 | .190 | .105 |
| Juan Miranda | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | .333 | .409 | .556 |
| Clay Bellinger | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | .125 | .176 | .118 |
| Cody Ransom | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | .417 | .500 | .883 |
| 5763 | 1542 | 295 | 16 | 306 | 1050 | 789 | 53 | 113 | 1162 | 140 | .268 | .369 | .484 |
For the Yankees, finding a suitable first basemen took up a lot of resources in the 2000s. The 1980s belonged to Donnie Baseball, and the 1990s were split between a fading Mattingly and Tino Martinez. As the 2000s rolled around, Tino’s days in the Bronx were numbered. He hit an admirable .280/.329/.501 with 34 dingers and 113 RBI in 2001, but heading into his age 34 season, Tino was given his walking papers.
The Yankees turned their attention to the big fish that off-season: Jason Giambi. Coming off of some stellar years for the Oakland A’s, the Yankees desperately wanted to add Giambi’s bat to the lineup. For seven years and $120 million, they did just that. After hitting .330/.458/.617 over his final three years in the A’s, Giambi would be playing on the world’s biggest stage.
At first, he struggled in the Bronx. He didn’t homer until the Yanks’ ninth game of 2002 and didn’t appear to be the feared hitter the Yanks thought they were getting. That is, until the flood gates opened on May 17, 2002. That night, Giambi blasted a walk-off Grand Slam in the 12th inning as the Yanks downed the Twins 13-12. The Giambino had arrived. He would end the year with a .314/.435/.598 with 41 home runs and 122 RBI.
For Giambi, though, 2002 would represent his peak in the Bronx. The power would begin to tail off in 2003, and although the batting eye would remain stellar, Giambi began to break down. He missed half of 2004 with a variety of injuries and much of 2007 as well. He found himself in the eye of the steroid hurricane and could not escape controversy. He rebounded nicely in 2008, but with Mark Teixeira looming, Giambi was gone.
So is Jason Giambi then the first baseman of the decade? Offensively, he makes a strong case for himself. As a first baseman only — not as a DH — he hit .280/.420/.567 with 129 home runs in 28.44 percent of the Yanks’ first base ABs. Tino, who made a Bronx return in 2005, came in second in team first base ABs but hit just .262/.325/.452 and blasted just 64 home runs.
Yet, the Yankees spent much of the decade trying to find someone who could actually play defense at first. The team learned early on that Giambi was ill-equipped to handle the glove. He wasn’t confident in his throws and generally had poor range. His cumulative UZR at first during his Yankee years was a -18.8. Only once in his Yankee career did he play more than 92 games at first and that was in 2008 when the Yanks had no better options. From 2004-2007, he played just 204 of the Yanks’ 648 games in the field. He was, in other words, a very highly paid designated hitter who could be stuck at first base when need me.
To that end, the Yanks tried just about everything. They used Nick Johnson for much of 2003 at first and brought back Tino in 2005. They tried the all-glove Doug Mientkiewicz; they begged Andy Phillips to do anything with the bat at the big league level; and they even gave Miguel Cairo enough chances to accrue nearly 100 ABs as a first baseman. The situation was that dire.
As we sit here in 2009, we’re on the precipice of the decade of Mark Teixeira. Already third on the list of Yankee first baseman of the ’00s by plate appearances, Mark’s contract ensures that his glove and bat will occupy first base for much of the 2010s. It will be a stark contrast with the ’00s, a decade that belongs to Giambi’s bat but not his glove and one that saw many players try to man first with varying degrees of success.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
