Comments on: How many homers would Johnny Damon hit in other ballparks?

By: Peter

Peter — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:18:51 +0000

I developed the tool. I’ve got the 30 ballparks that will be used in 2010 in there currently and hope to have more soon. But yes, this is YS3. I haven’t laid out YS2 yet.

By: barry

barry — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 17:07:03 +0000

prove it

By: MattG

MattG — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 15:08:37 +0000

1.34 is a constant for home run inflation to right field. It’s the end result after you remove all the noise. It averages Brett Gardner and Mark Teixeira.

The problem with the chart is that the marks are not in the place they would be in another park. Heck, they’re not even in the place they would be on another day in the same park. You have to remove all the noise and establish a constant.

You would probably also want to look at the player and determine if you want to adjust the results. Some players will be more difficult to estimate by this method than others. Presumably, the more raw power the player possesses, the more reliable the park factor data would be. Although the 1.34 figure would include balls hit by both Mark Teixeira and Brett Gardner, Gardner’s longer drives are flukey.

By: jack

jack — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:49:59 +0000

Am I missing something? You are showing the balls that WERE homeruns, right? What about the deep fly balls that might or might not have been home runs depending on the park in which he hit them. Are these “fly balls” (or what turned into doubles or triples) accounted for in this analysis?

By: JGS

JGS — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:41:06 +0000

he hit four home runs at home and four on the road with a .388 SLG away from Safeco Cavern

By: jsbrendog

jsbrendog — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:40:32 +0000

spanish for, the nino

By: MattG

MattG — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:30:18 +0000

Boras does very well for himself, because his successes improve the value of his clients as a whole, whereas his failures do not significantly impact the market. He manages his clients like a stock portfolio, valued as a whole. He does not measure success one client at a time.

Any individual player should be cognizant of this, yet year after year a couple of his guys are always left without a chair.

By: MattG

MattG — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:27:01 +0000

“The park he played in probably turned several warning track shots into home runs. Isn’t that something that a team looking to acquire him should take into account?”

Not that specifically, no. They should regard Damon as a lefty with pull power and a fly ball swing, and determine if that is a good fit for their park. No team should be trying to downgrade his home run total to evaluate him. I think that’s a fool’s errand.

Adrian Beltre is a righty pull hitter with plus raw power…but he hit 8 home runs last year with Safeco as his home park. Anyway you do the math, that’s not a good output–yet he’s a terrific fit for Fenway.

By: Rick

Rick — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:26:14 +0000

I’m as big a Boras fan as the next guy but he fails more often than he succeeds. You or I could get Tex his deal or other star players. You don’t notice how many times he misses on his other clients. Example various arbitration offers he didn’t accept over recent years.

By: Joseph Pawlikowski

Joseph Pawlikowski — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 14:21:57 +0000

No, the Hit Tracker bit is what holds the copyright. This is definitely the new Stadium.