How many runs could the Yanks score next season?


The Yankees lost two core pieces from their 2009 lineup this offseason, but they replaced them with two younger players who aren’t exactly slouches with the bat. After scoring a Major League best 915 runs last season, how many runs could the Yankees be expected to score in 2010 with Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson replacing Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon? Well, the answer is a frickin’ lot.

Matt Imbrogno at TYU ran some numbers using the 2010 CHONE projections, and pegs the Yanks as a 935 run offense next season. The worst possible lineup arrangement, which features Robbie Cano leading off and Mark Teixeira batting 9th, would still put 900 runs on the board. Factor in the massive fourth starter upgrade that is Javier Vazquez, and damn, the Yankees are going to be one scary team in 2010.

Categories : Asides, Offense


  1. Short Porch says:

    Replace Gardner with Damon then where are we????


  2. Drew says:

    Throw JD in that shit and there’s a real shot at 1000.

  3. jsbrendog officially approves signing Fernando Tatis (and is with CoCo) says:


    • Steve H says:

      How many would they score with Fernando Tatis? Or is that off the charts?

      • jsbrendog officially approves signing Fernando Tatis (and is with CoCo) says:

        a negligible difference. but they’ll score mroe on the days where tatis plays left instead of hoffmann, or when he pinch hits for gardner in the 8th down by a run with 1 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd. or when he fills in for a swisher/granderson day off instead of hoffman/johnson.

        tatis is not a starter. but he is a potent bat off the bench who i have no problem giving 60-80 games to. hopfully more like 70 in the middle but hey, its not whether he is good or not but whether he is better than what else is available, which he most certainly is at this point, no?

        ok, im off to work overtime till my head falls off.

        see all you gents and ladies on the morrow, or maybe monday. we’ll see what feels good

  4. Stryker says:

    everyone needs to read matt’s stuff more often. he does some great work.

  5. We are, of course, assuming everyone stays healthy.

    There’s an inordinate amount of luck that goes into it as well…

    • Steve H says:

      Thanks for being the turd in the punchbowl…..

      Though if you look at CHONE, they seem to have some of that built in, with A-Rod at 130 games, Tex at 146, Jeter at 143. They even have Cano and Grandy <150.

    • Riddering says:

      Don’t worry, the Mets are designing a projection system with the added variables of season-long DL stints + replacement level value + mid-season DL stints + replacement for the replacement level player value. Soon enough we’ll be rocked by figuring out how many runs a team could score once their ace loses an arm and their star outfielder is crushed underneath a grand piano.

  6. canadien tuxedo says:

    with damon in left or a platoon of nady and gardner the skies the limit

  7. Master of all Trades says:

    Buster Olney of ESPN tweets that the Nationals have put Josh Willingham on the market once again. If they move the soon-to-be 31-year-old, it could clear the way for Adam Dunn to be moved to the outfield. Willingham recently avoided arbitration with the Nats, agreeing to a one-year, $4.6MM pact.

    I wonder what the Natinals would want for him?

  8. pete says:

    yeah, one scary THIRD PLACE team!

    /eric von stein’d

  9. zs190 says:

    I’m surprised how low the projections are for Montero, 5 runs better than Cervelli as a hitter, seriously?

  10. anon says:

    For the love of god start the season!

  11. Crazy Eyes Killa says:

    Two things from those CHONE projections: Doesnt A-Rod’s at bat total seem way too low….and Montero’s way too much?

  12. Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

    935 runs…Shit,that’s AWESOME.

  13. [...] Taking a look at how many runs the Yankees might score next season (River Ave. Blues) [...]

  14. Fud says:

    All this assumes age doesn’t catch up with the core.

  15. AndrewYF says:

    I don’t have high hopes for A-Rod in 2010. He only performs in the clutch in odd years. MVP years in 2003, 2005, 2007. MVP of the postseason in 2009.

    So, I’m just going to write 2010 off and look forward to 2011.


  16. Matcohen says:

    They take the OBP and SLG projections from Chone but that projection system assumes that each player plays all 162 games.

    I think that the CHONE numbers for A-Rod and Johnson are a bit low – A-Rod should have a good season now that he is healthier. Johnson should get some of his power back now that he is a year more away from his injury.

    I ran my numbers with
    Cervelli – 75 games
    Pena – 29 games
    4th OF – 20 games
    - I did a weighted average for each position with the sub and the regular.

    and came up with 973 runs (vs 915 last year).
    As I said, I projected A-Rod and Johnson as better than CHONE.

    Net, net the Yanks should be slightly better than last year in terms of runs scored barring any of their veterans completely falling off of the cliff.

  17. AndrewYF says:

    I think one should take into account that the Yankees, with their OBP and SLG, probably should have scored more runs this year than they actually did. I do remember a disproportionate amount of unclutch hitting from Cano and Swisher.

  18. Matcohen says:

    Yes but ARod was superclutch. It all balances out.

    • AndrewYF says:

      I always thought a good rule of thumb for expected runs scored should be AB*OBP*SLG. The reasoning being that OBP is how often you get on base, and SLG is how far around the diamond you get (with 4.000 being the max, obviously) on average per at bat.

      It’s probably meaningless, because why use At Bats instead of Plate Appearances? Well, that always overshoots the actual runs scored. So AB tends to give a very good estimate of how many runs you should have scored.

  19. [...] How many runs could the Yanks score next season? [...]

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