Open Thread: PECOTA puts Yanks out of playoffs

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The nerds with their spreadsheets over at Baseball Prospectus have released their PECOTA projections for the 2010 season. You can check out their projected standings here, but you might not like it. The Yankees, with 93 wins, project to finish third in the AL East, two wins behind the Red Sox and three wins behind the Rays. A glance at their depth chart (which requires a subscription) explains why.

Offensively, the Yankees appear unmatched. Their 917 projected runs scored tops the league by 32. Most of the Yankees players project favorably — even Brett Gardner, who they predict will have a .360 OBP. With his speed, that will lead to many, many runs scored. The problem is on the pitching end. It projects only two starters, CC Sabathia and Javy Vazquez, to have ERAs below 4.00. The others aren’t bad, though PECOTA does predict a pretty horrible season for Andy Pettitte. It also projects a much worse season for Mo.

These are, of course, just projections, and PECOTA does drill down further for individual players. Nothing will ever perfectly predict baseball, but PECOTA can give us an idea of how certain players project based on historical counterparts. It’s an interesting look if nothing else.

With that, here’s your open thread. Not much going on in local sports this evening, with the Islanders in Carolina and the Knicks hosting Toronto.

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Suit over YES Network origins dismissed
A real budget means Wang will move on
  • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

    I’m so distraught that the Yankees have lost the spreadsheet AL East that I’m going back to my mom’s basement to cry now. No point in even playing the 2010 season.

    • ColoYank

      There, there, Ben.

      (IETCVM)

    • Accent Shallow

      True story: tried to convince my parents to let me live in the basement at some point during high school. Thanks, Mom and Dad, for not letting me do it.

    • WIlliam

      Yeah, I mean a spreadsheet that says the ATHLETICS are first the the west is definetly reliable. What was there projection for 2009, A Mets and Rays World Series?

  • Warren

    What was the Nerds PECOTA spreadsheet results in the January 2009 ?

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      At one point, it was NYY 99-63, BOS 96-66, TB 95-67, BAL 76-86, TOR 73-89. I’m not sure what point that was though.

      • Jose

        Tampa Bay ended up going 84-78. I’m betting all my money that they don’t win 96 games this year.

      • ColoYank

        Do these people just do this to be contrary? To shake shit up? I’m biased, admittedly, but come on, guys! It clearly smacks of behind-the-scenes riggery.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          You’re right, now the Yankees are so ashamed that they got this low a grade on PECOTA they’ll just play to expectations, and win no more than 93 games.

          What exactly are they rigging? The spreadsheet championships?

          • ColoYank

            That’s what I was speculating about, yeah. I mean, how do they decide HOW MUCH a given player is going to regress? Again, I’ll admit to bias, but they sure seem to have put out a worst-case scenario for the Yanks. I can’t really address how they approached the other clubs.

            • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

              Yeah, most projections I look at have them over 100 wins.

        • thurdonpaul

          Riggery ?? thats an awesome word, I love it :)

  • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

    In theory, Mo should be projected to have a bad year pretty much every year now.

    It’s not going to happen. Not yet.

  • http://www.thechuckknoblog.com/ JobaWockeeZ

    Ha it gives the Red Sox giving up only ONE more run than last ear when they changed form one of the suckiest defensive teams to one of the best ALSO shoring up their rotation to not rely on bounceback candidates.

    These projections are meh IMO.

  • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

    Actually, I really thought the pitching staff improved, so I’m kind of surprised.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

    This sucks. I guess I’m going to have to switch to watching soccer this summer instead.

    • ColoYank

      No, Andy, no! We’ll … we’ll take a look at their formulas … and, Oh crap. Soccer it is. Can’t go against the spreadsheets.

  • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)

    I think the problem here is expecting that Mo will have an awful season when, in fact, The Hammer of G-d does not regress.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      In all seriousness, at this age Mo SHOULD regress every season. The fact that he doesn’t just makes him Mo.

      Honestly, this is the first projection I’ve seen that puts the Yanks under 100 wins.

      • Accent Shallow

        I don’t know if I can confidently project the Yankees as a 100+ win team. Sure, I can see it happening, but the team isn’t so strong that I’d say it’s the most likely outcome.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          Oh I agree, 93 wins just seems way too low.

          • WIlliam

            I think it’s hilarious that the top three records on all of Baseball are all put into the AL East, and not by a small number. No one outside of the division gets more than 87 wins.

  • Rey22

    Ah well, eagerly anticipating the season was fun while it lasted. Till next year’s PECOTA projections…

  • http://www.facebook.com/adorador Ray Fuego

    This is a bunch of hog wash!

    • ColoYank

      And that’s insulting to the hogs.

    • http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0902/mlb.alex.rodriguez.through.the.years/images/1993.alex-rodriguez.jpg Drew

      Horse shit!

      /youkilis’d

      • ColoYank

        Some day I want to count the flies in that man’s beard. He always makes me think of B.O. Plenty from Dick Tracy.

        Why do they keep publishing that crap?

      • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

        That’s insulting to horses.

  • Paul

    How does this pan out for the last few years? Is it ever even close to accurate with player analysis?

    • http://www.Yankeeist.com Mike

      No, not at all with player analysis. Frankly, the pitcing and hitting performances are hard to swallow. Also, statistically, this is the same as saying they just don’t know who will win the AL East.

      • ColoYank

        Hm. They sure like to couch things in some pretty definite terms for the reality that it’s just one elaborate guess. Or series of hundreds, if not thousands, of guesses.

        The problem with spreadsheet baseball is that the bars on the computer paper aren’t as green as real grass.

  • JGS

    for what it’s worth, I’m pretty sure PECOTA did miserably bad last year. Like, predicting Oakland, Cleveland, the Cubs, Mets, and Diamondbacks as division winners bad

  • ColoYank

    Okay, I’m setting the Brett Gardner over/under on plate appearances at 275, and taking the under.

    • JGS

      I’ll take the over on that

    • http://www.thechuckknoblog.com/ JobaWockeeZ

      He made 284 in 2009 so I’m going over.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      Well over.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      Over. Terrible line. I’d set it closer to 400 than under his 2009 title.

    • ColoYank

      Okay, okay … it’s just that I think we might see Winn-Granderson-Swisher pretty darn regularly. And I was riffing off a comment from earlier today that said GGBG was now a fourth outfielder.

  • Accent Shallow

    From what I’ve seen, PECOTA isn’t much more accurate/interesting than the freely availably projection systems, like CHONE, ZiPS, or Marcel.

    As I recall, PECOTA didn’t think much of the Yankees last year, either. (The offense, anyway)

    • http://twitter.com/tafkasic tafka (sic)

      Its more accurate than CHONE, I would guess, because CHONE is regression-based. For instance, CHONE projects only 1 SP in the entire league to top 200 IP. Its just a different game.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        Really? CHONE projects the Yanks’ lineup to score more runs this year than last year.

      • Accent Shallow

        For instance, CHONE projects only 1 SP in the entire league to top 200 IP. Its just a different game.

        I thought there was no way this could be true, but you’re right. Sabathia is projected to get 205 IP, and Felix 200.

        That said, all the models incorporate some form of regression, and I’d be inclined to trust CHONE over PECOTA on a rate basis. Of course, I haven’t exactly done exhaustive studies, comparing projections to results and calculating RMSE and other such things, this is just my subjective impression.

        This Hardball Times article (about the over-projection of a certain Matthew Wieters) whacked a lot of the faith I have in PECOTA over the head: http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....-superman/

  • Hey ZZ

    I would love to see the explanation for the Angels only winning 76 games next year. The freaking Orioles and Indians are projected to win more then that.

    Also, surprised the Rockies are projected to win only 80 games.

  • BigBlueAL

    PECOTA has the Nationals going 82-80 this season. Enough said.

    • Accent Shallow

      I bet they have a silly projection for Strasburg, a la Wieters last year.

    • Marcus

      Also the A’s are going to win the AL West. Just imagine what they’ll do when they sign Johnny Damon.

  • Steve H

    Well I guess Bo has been right all along.

    • ColoYank

      STOP THAT! Don’t even joke that way!

      /my wife’d

  • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

    It’s interesting that PECOTA pegs the Yankees so poorly, but CAIRO has them over 100 wins again.

    • Mike Pop

      They just want to look like socrates if these actually pan out. Saying the Yanke will dominate is too easy.

      • ColoYank

        Yup, exactly. I’ve been saying much less effectively the same thing. Thanks, Mike.

    • Mr.Jigginz

      Well,OBVIOUSLY,that’s because Cairo played for the Yankees…(I keed.)

  • jay

    When this comes true, you’re all gonna eat your words. These projections are ALWAYS top notch. That’s why I only watch Spring Training. It’s the only unadulterated baseball we have left.

  • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

    NEWSFLASH: PECOTA projects soccer to outproduce baseball financially next season. Details at eleven.

    /Just as likely’s*

    *Hyperbole

    • jay

      IETC

    • ColoYank

      Me three.

    • http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com Rebecca-Optimist Prime (Optimovelist Primus)

      Umm.

      In a World Cup year, soccer probably WILL outproduce baseball financially.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        AMERICAN soccer.

      • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

        In a World Cup EVERY year, soccer probably WILL outproduce baseball financially.

        Fixed.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          As I said above, I meant in America.

          • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

            I think you forgetting about one, David Beckham, the savior of American Futbol popularity.

            • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

              Victoria Beckham, savior of the lost souls of many girls courtesy of charm school.

      • Chris

        Interestingly, it’s a lot closer than I would have thought. If you look at just the top 5 Euro leagues + the world cup, then it basically equals MLB revenues (in a world cup year). Soccer only gets the edge because there are a ton of lower profile leagues that generate additional revenue.

        http://www.loc.gov/rr/business.....occer.html

    • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

      Soccer has me as a watcher this year. Damn PECOTA.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        You were factored directly into the equation.

        Actually, I will pay attention to the world cup.

        • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

          All kidding aside, the World Cup is awesome. It’s exciting as hell. I would love to be in NYC during the World Cup. I’m sure there are plenty of bars with ex-pats from all over the world cheering on their home countries. Me and my buddies love to play the World Cup Drinking Game. A predetermined shot is designated to each team, the shot has to have something to do with the country, (Wild Turkey for Turkey, Jagermeister for Germany etc..), every score = shot time.

          • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

            Meh. World cup is vaguely interesting. Sucks that the U.S. is never that good though.

            • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

              America is a sleeping giant when it comes to soccer. The whole world knows it except for us.

              • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

                Because most Americans don’t give a shit about soccer. Those who do listen to the uneducated masses.

                As somebody only vaguely interested, I hope they do good, but they haven’t yet, so IDK.

                • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=nf Andy in Sunny Daytona

                  Getting to the knockout stage is tough enough. Last World Cup they sucked pretty bad, but in 2002, they did really well. They made the quarters.

                • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

                  Well good.

                • Thomas

                  Helps that the US got a great draw with England, Algeria, and Slovenia. None of who are very good.

          • Pasqua

            Needs more sneak-attack headbutts.

  • bobmac

    Who cares what the nerds predict? I can’t believe guys make money pushing this swill.Oh well,to each his own.

    • Esteban

      LOL, is this real?

  • Jose

    3 teams winning over 90 games in one division is pretty rare. I could find it happening 3 times since the 1994 structure change: 2002 NL West, 2002 AL West, and 2006 AL Central.

    • WIlliam

      I don’t think that os so odd this year, I just think it’s weird that NO ONE outside of the division tops 87 wins. And don’t get me started on the AL West standings.

  • pete

    Andy will have the worst ERA of any of the yanks’ five main starters this season, at 4.52. Then will be AJ at 4.27, then Javy at 4.08, then Joba at 3.86, then CC at 3.13. The offense will score 934 runs, and the defense will grade out as above average – about +25 UZR overall. They will win 99 games and win the division and eventually the World Series in a rematch with the phils. See, I just made a random “projection” based thoroughly on whim that will probably be more accurate than PECOTA’s. Point being, projection systems create projections, which make for fun conversatiorn starters, especially since people can, as i just did, make their own projections, but ultimately, they don’t really mean shit. Prospect lists, which typically end up being right about 40% of the time or so, and they’re much much more accurate, and “worth” getting worked up over, than any of the projection systems.

    When looking at players in their primes with considerable experience and a lack of deviation in their careers, they’re nice references, but even then, it’s easier just to use your own head. Provided you’re not an idiot.

  • Jramey

    just give up… :(

  • Pasqua

    Don’t worry, everybody! This PECOTA projection doesn’t account for the freak, microwave-related injury that I’ve projected Evan Longoria to suffer on July 17! The division is ours!

  • http://twitter.com/tafkasic tafka (sic)

    OK. Listen up.

    PECOTA doesn’t have it out for the Yankees. It predicted NYY to win last year. It’s not designed to try to “look smart”. It’s not a person with an agenda, it isn’t showing off. It’s a complex statistical system that predicted Boston, Tampa and NYY to be within 3 games of each other. That’s statistically insignificant. It could just have easily been NYY on top and Boston in third had the numbers come out slightly different. Jayson Stark may have an agenda, Peter Gammons does have an agenda, but PECOTA is a bunch of numbers.

    Breathe.

    /rant

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      Not a very good projection, though.

      • Chris

        How do you know? You’re a Yankee fan, so I am guessing you are more biased than the computer program.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          It wasn’t very good last year, was it?

          Besides, I don’t KNOW. It’s an opinion.

    • JGS

      this.

      it’s also the same bunch of numbers that picked the Mets and three last-place teams to win their divisions last year

      • http://twitter.com/tafkasic tafka (sic)

        yeah. im not saying its a genius. but i am saying that there is no anti-yankee bias.

      • Thomas

        In all fairness, while we may not have agreed with PECOTA’s picks of Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, Mets, and Arizona to win their divisions, it could not predict some of the problems to happen to those teams.

        PECOTA would have trouble predicting the injury to the Mets and the D-Backs loss of Webb. PECOTA also couldn’t predict the trades of Holliday and Lee from Oakland and Cleveland (though both of those teams were out of the race by then, but it did negatively impact the teams final record. Tons of people/projections picked the Cubs and they just under performed.

        • JGS

          of course not–my point is that you shouldn’t put that much stock in these preseason projections. I can’t believe they picked Oakland again though

          • Thomas

            I can’t understand the Oakland pick either. They must have expected a lot from the rookies Cahill and Anderson.

            Basically the way I look at these picks is that the Rays, the Red Sox, and the Yankees are essentially equal and the deciding factors between the teams are going to be luck, injuries, and players drastically over/under-performing.

    • Accent Shallow

      Exactly. We all know that PECOTA is only biased against the White Sox.

      • Steve H

        You mean the Pale Hoes?

        /TSJC’d

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          I give because I love.

  • JGS

    not sure why only the Phillies player cards are available, but they have Ryan Howard slugging .501 with an .852 OPS. His career lows to date are .543 and .881. I’m taking the over on that one

  • http://nutballgazette.blogspot.com/ nutballgazette

    Last Year they had it right Yanks, Sox and Rays, I do not see the Rays being able to beat out the Yanks or Sox but no one saw it in 2008 either.

  • Eddy

    As much as i bleed pinstripes, there is no way this people should be guessing numbers, every division is wrong.

    AL East- Rays didnt improve that much, and the yankees improved in every way.

    AL Central- There is no way the twins will finish 82-80, they are a much better team then that. Please 82-80 might win you a division in the NL, but this is the bad boy American League

    AL West- So they are saying Ben Sheets improved the A’s, i guess they are forgetting everything the Mariners did to improve.

    NL East- I believe the Nationals will have a winning year soon, but not this year, but i guess there CY young predictions will be Steven Strasburg. Also, i really don’t think the mets will that much of a joke this year, not in contention but not 77-85

    NL Central- Only one thats not that Farfetched, but not sure if the Reds could pull a winning season, but crazier things have happened.

    NL West- The Giants went 88-74 last year, all they did was improve this offseason, they is no way they are finishing 81-81. I Think they have what it takes to win their division.

    But who knows all these standings can actually end up this way, but thats baseball and thats why i love it.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      Your sense of capitalization is just downright perplexing. In any event, for the most part, you appear to be right in much of your reasoning.

      The Nationals sporting that record? I will be freakin’ shocked. The Mariners, on paper, should be very good, better than the A’s. The Twins winning 82 games? It would have to take a lot of injuries to knock them down to 82 games. The Rays underachieved in many ways last year, and a few players overachieved (Zobrist, Bartlett). It wouldn’t be crazy to see them hit their ceiling next year. Regarding the Giants, their offense is still shaky. They’ll be in it because of their pitching, but who scares you in that lineup not named “Panda”?

      • Eddy

        the giants lineup won’t give you a whole bunch of power numbers, but i think the line-up is decent.

        Renteria
        Sanchez
        Rowand
        Sandoval
        Huff
        Derosa
        Schierholtz
        Molina

  • Pasqua

    I’d be interested to know where / how the Rays are making up 12 wins in ’10. I’m assuming it’s not based on their new recruits, so it’s got to be strong(er) years from the core?

    • Thomas

      My guesses:

      Improvement from players like Upton, Sonnestine, Price, Joyce, and Longoria

      Full/healthy seasons from Price, Pena, and Bartlett

      Additions of Jennings, Davis, and Hellickson during the season

      The addition of Soriano

      Better production out of the DH either from more usage of Ayabar and/or healthy/better season from Burrell

      Whether that adds up to 12 wins is beyond me, but that would be the Rays likely improvements. Also it must not see any major regression (like Bartlett and Zobrist).

      • Pasqua

        Yeah, that about sums it up. Longoria is going to be a scary, scary player.

      • Devil In A Blue Cap

        Here’s the thing I don’t get, and I love Longoria: how much better can he really get? I mean, let’s say that he adds 1.5 in WAR (which is ridiculous), that’s still about ~2 wins. Where are the other ten coming from? Bartlett and Zobrist, based on age alone, are major candidates for regression: it’s insanely unlikely that Zobrist repeats his league leading WAR (non-Mauer division). And, here’s the real kicker, I’m not sure their bullpen is renewed to 2008 levels. Having a team that doesn’t blow six run leads in the ninth is more important than getting a better OBP from Bossman Jr.

    • pat

      UMM THE RAYS JUST SIGNED MATT FUCKING BUSH!!!!!!!!!!

  • Steve H

    Just like the prospects rankings it’s nothing to get worked up over. Even though some asshat at MLB thinks Montero is the 19th best prospect in baseball, it has zero bearing on Montero’s future. Cash isn’t going to trade him now because he’s not ranked as high as we all expected, and Montero isn’t going to regress because of it either. Just because a projection says the Yankees won’t make the playoffs, it doesn’t mean they won’t, and it’s not worth getting pissed over.

    • Thomas

      The prospect rating will have tremendous bearing on Montero’s future. A low rating like that will just serve to upset him and that cannot be good for any opponent.

      • Steve H

        Then I rank him 53rd…..in the Yankees’ system.

        You hear that Jesus?!?!?!?!?

  • Section 39

    SO let me get this straight, they expect anyone to believe the Yanks are giving up 50 more runs that last year? Really?

    CC/AJ/Andy/Joba all start last year… So in place of the Gaudin/Mitre/Wang bullcrap — we now have Vasquez and our RA goes up by 50? Are they nuts?

    More over, our pen now has either Joba or Hughes for the entire season and one more year of experience for Robertson/Aceves, and again, somehow we give up more runs?

    Lastly, we improve our OF defense and the infield stays the same, but again, we are giving up more runs that last year.

    HILARIOUS! Just plain COMICAL!

    • Tom Zig

      Actually A-rod should be better defensively this year as he gets further removed from that hip surgery

    • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

      If anything, the offense should be a bit weaker and the pitching should be better. No Wang, Hughes for a full season in the 8th, Vasquez as the #4. Our OF defense will also improve, further suppressing runs.

      I will say that I do believe Andy and Posada will decline this year, how much remains to be seen.

  • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

    BREAKING NEWS–According to PECOTA, the complex sabermetric algorithm forecasting system, the New York Mets will win the American League Central, a feat so rare, it paradoxically defeats statistics themselves.

    But for realz, who cares? This is merely one forecasting system tuned to expect poor seasons from A.J., Joba and Andy. I’m not necessarily buying it, but A.J.’s issue has always been with consistency and injury, so while I wouldn’t expect him to shit the futon, it’s not crazy to think he’ll struggle next year. Andy is at an advanced age—at a certain point the wheels will come off. It’s not crazy to think it could be next year, as he nears 38. Joba’s struggles after hitting his innings limit may be overblown (I think he’ll be pretty good next year), but I can say why people wouldn’t expect more than mediocrity. Do I think all of these things will happen next year? No, but it’s not totally batshit insane.

    The Rays underperformed last year, and have an unbelievable amount of good young talent. They might have as much talent as anyone in the league. That said, they didn’t really improve their team this off-season. Still, they should be better than they were in ’09, particularly with Price a year older, good arms coming up, and a certain OF prospect.

    The Sox greatly improved their pitching and defense. They’ll be good.

    Also, let’s consider that this Silver no longer does PECOTA, that it’s mostly Goldstein and the rest of the BP team. They had a pretty good track record until 2009, the year they bombed. Just sayin’.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      Also, regarding the Rays:

      The system must be accounting for improvements from Upton, Longoria, Price, Shields, Garza, Burrell, and Davis without regression from Zobrist and Bartlett. It’s possible they’ll all improve, but to expect them all to improve and Zobrist and Bartlett (who had crazy career years) is wildly optimistic. They’ll be good, but I don’t see them winning more than 92 games.

      12 wins is a lot. Not sure it jives with logic, but hey, what do I know?

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

        My bad, I should have scrolled up. Thomas said basically exactly this above.

        • Thomas

          GMTA

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

            Give Me That Ass? Or is it “Great Minds Think Alike”? Also, consider that mediocre minds also think alike (not that that in any way describes our genius).

            • Tom Zig

              Get more T&A

  • NCpinstripes

    So the nerds with their pocket protectors, calculators, and taped up glasses have the Rays winning the AL East. Why am I not worried.

    • http://www.thechuckknoblog.com/ JobaWockeeZ

      Why am I not worried.
      Because they live in their basements in their non lives ruining the game of baseball because despite being nerds know nothing of baseball because numbers are overrated.

      • Esteban

        Garden apartments!

  • Ari

    Clearly this thing is a joke, oakland winning the west really, nationals over 500 r u insane

    • Mike Pop

      It’s not a joke, they have a system to project these things. It might seem silly to some of us, but they don’t just do it out of thin air.

      I do lean towards a little having to do with trying to look like geniuses though.

      • Ivan

        To be honest, I think all 4 teams in the AL West could win that division.

    • Steve H

      If Ben Sheets pitches 180 innings, I could certainly see it. Anaheim has gotten decidedly worse, Seattle has a lot of question marks in their rotation 3-5, and Texas had a lot go right for them last year to get to 87 wins. As Pop said above, all 4 of those teams have a chance if things go their way. There is no team head and shoulders above the rest.

      • Steve H

        Sorry as Ivan said above. Should have known Pop wouldn’t have said something so intelligent :)

        • Mike Pop

          For real, I said something intelligent in a thread a few days ago. Two weeks or so, I’ll have another banger.

  • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

    One good thing about the Randy Winn signing. John Sterling has his easiest catch-phrase ever.

    “RANDY WINN!! THEEEEEEEEE RANDY WINN!!!!!”

    Can be used for walk off hits or the all-too-rare HR call.

    • Ivan

      I cant wait til Montero shows up lol.

      • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

        “HOLY JESUS, DID HE HIT THAT BALL!!!!!”

  • Moshe Mandel

    I love the claims of bias, or the idea that they are optimistic on certain players, as if they got together and said, let’s predict event A for this player. That’s not how it works. They create a statistical model that weighs things like recent performance, career stats, and historical performances from players with similar statistical profiles. They then plug all the players in to the system. Other than broad playing time evaluations, there is nothing subjective here once they determine the overall “formula.” This is what their numbers show.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      I’d issue a “+1″ here, but it would scream of numeric bias. SO DON’T GO THERE, GIRLFRIEND. NAH UH!

    • Steve H

      But once they run the statistical model, they cut the Yankees numbers by 15% so the Yankees don’t win on the spreadsheet.

      /paranoid’d

    • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

      Yeah, and if the Pecota rankings said the Yanks would win 100+ games next year, I’m sure many of the same people criticizing it would be using it to back up their arguments. People love to pick and choose which stats to “believe” based on whatever supports their pre-conceived notions, and dismiss all that run contrary. Which is about the most unscientific way possible to look at these things.

      That being said, I would like to see PECOTA’s track record. A nice 3-5 year sample of available. Methodology is everything, and no system is perfect.

      • Moshe Mandel

        I’m actually looking for that right now. I remember reading an article about a year ago that studied track record for all the major projection systems, but I cant find it. I seem to recall that they did a much better job on hitters than pitchers (not just PECOTA, all of them).

  • thurdonpaul

    You just cant predict baseball.

    • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

      But oddly enough, you can predict what Harold Moscowitz will say.

  • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

    I didn’t let this be known last night but UConn basketball fuckin’ sucks this year.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      I remember having a conversation with you earlier in the winter about the Huskies. I thought they’d be good. Not Final Four-good, but Sweet 16. Now? Hmm…they’re underachieving considering the talent they have. Kind of sad.

      • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

        Yeah, I thought Sweet 16, too. Not too sure about that now.

    • pat

      Hahaha, I went to Providence and when my friend messaged me this morning to say we hosed yall last night my first thought was Wow UCONN sucks and Wow the CT Yankee is gonna be upset.

      • Mike Pop

        My sister went to Providence.

        /setting myself up for something bad

        • pat

          Hahah, well all I can say is she’s probably a boozehound. PC girls like to get crunked.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

            They make Bryant girls look like prudes. And those are fecophiliacs.

            Just sayin’.

  • Mike Pop

    The Magic are paying Gortat 6.8 million average salary to play 12 minutes a game and average 3 points and 3 rebounds.

    • Steve H

      It’s amazing how big men get overpaid in the NBA. In the non-Isiah Thomas division you still have such legendary contracts as Jim McIlvaine, Calvin Booth, Erick Dampier, etc.

      • Mike Pop

        Heh. Wow. 73 million for Damp. 34 for Booth.

        Hilarious.

        • Ivan

          Remember Jerome James? Got like 30 Mil just to sit on the bench. At least Dampier is useful albeit not for 70+ million.

          • Steve H

            Heh. He’s in the Isiah Thomas division of horrible contracts. They get their own place.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      The best part is everyone knew it was a mistake. What were they thinking?

  • Steve H

    My BOGRANTA projections have the Yankees at 57-100 (they’ll forfeit the last 5 games in shame). Randy Winn will go 0-550, but they will leave him in because that’s still better than Gardner. A-Rod will go 400-500 with 400 solo HR’s, and will go 0-100 with runners in scoring position, again proving that he sucks and is not clutch. Cashman will trade CC for (current FA)Paul Byrd, of course eating CC’s whole salary along the way. And Girardi, sick of seeing Jeter’s statuesque defense at short, will bang Minka Kelly and stick Jeter behind the plate, and won’t let him use a glove or a cup.

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      IETC. Also, the Yankees will relocate to a Lowe’s Theater so Eric can echo his favorite movie quotes to himself at all home games.

    • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

      Please tell me “BOGRANTA” what stands for.

      • Dirt

        Bogus Rant?

      • pat

        Bo/Grant

        • Steve H

          yes

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        I imagine it’s PECOTA changed to be what Sal/BO/GRANT/Lanny would say.

        • Nostra-Artist

          I’m going with this one.

  • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

    Since Mo and Matty are here, I’m doing a piece on the Yankee 2010 Opening Day payroll tomorrow morning. Just a heads up.

    Computed it down to the last dollar, I predict it will be referenced as the go-to source by everyone from Mark Fiensand to Hal Steinbrenner within a week.

    • A.D.

      Thank you in advance.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      There’s some sort of joke to be made in there that you TYU fellows are having business meetings here at RAB.

      It’s like McDonalds managers having a working lunch at Burger King, because they like the food there better.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

        It reminds me of the movie Milo and Otis. It’s just adorable.

        By the way, it’s a shame there aren’t more discussions at TYU. The content is solid, but the community just isn’t as strong.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          I blame Bo.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      How could you have it down to the last dollar when none of the pre-arb guys have had their contracts renewed yet?

      Ooooooo I just poked a big hole in your post, didn’t I?

      (I keed, I keed)

      • Nostra-Artist

        I know things. Let’s just leave it at that.

  • Ivan

    Imma go on a limb, Phil Hughes/Joba Chamberlain will be the 2nd best pitcher for the Yankees behind CC. Can you guys see that.

    • Steve H

      It’s best case scenario, but possible. We know at this point what AJ/Pettitte/Javy all are. Joba’s ceiling certainly exceeds what they are (right now), and maybe Hughes as well. No telling if either of them hits it ever, nevermind this year, but it’s not ridiculous to think Joba could be the #2 come October. Look at the leap Jon Lester made at 24, he certainly vaulted up the ranks that year. He didn’t start the season as an ace type, but he ended it that way.

    • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

      It’s possible, Joba certainly has shown he ability to be a top-flight starter.

      BTW-If that happens, the Yanks will be scary good. Like 1998 good. CC, AJ, Vasquez, and Andy are all pretty much given(s). If Joba pitched like an ace and everyone stayed healthy, they might win 105-110.

      • Accent Shallow

        God, if Joba pitches like 2008 . . . excuse me, I’ve wet myself in the excitement.

  • http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com/ Nostra-Artist

    After batting .365, with six home runs and 18 RBI during the ‘09 postseason, Alex Rodriguez said he was “very relieved’’ to have performed so well, on the way to his first World Series ring. “I was just so tired of the whole ‘un-clutch’ thing,’ A-Rod said in a YES Network interview.

    Here’s more of what he told Kimberly Jones tonight, on the subject of being previously dogged by “un-clutch’’ Octobers (the period after Game 3 of the ’04 ALCS until this past season):

    “It was good (to lose that tag) because I was so tired of hearing that. I mean…it was exhausting to be honest with you.

    “And, for me, I was just so tired of the whole ‘un-clutch’ thing. It was just, you know, very annoying, but to come over and be part of a championship team and get some of the biggest hits of my career and to deliver for my teammates when they needed me, that certainly feels really good and I’m very relieved.”

    http://blogs.northjersey.com/b.....from_alex/

    Glad he didn’t let the critics and bozos in the stands get in his head or anything. Yikes.

    • Steve H

      I hope it’s all true though. With that monkey off his back, and no more hiding of steroids, I can see an absolutely beastly year, if he just lets shit roll off his back now. MVP.

      • Ivan

        Heck I’ll pick him this year to win the 2010 AL MVP.

        • Esteban

          I predict him to have such a great season that the MVP, Silver Slugger, and Hank Aaron award will all be renamed the Alex Rodriguez Award.

          /joking

    • Esteban

      Now that he’s relieved he’ll hit .350/.490/.700

      • A.D.

        Yup, he can finally start his real career.

  • Paul M.

    What do you think the chance is of Hughes going into the season as a starter? I’m biased because I just love Hughes and I really hope he is a starter in 2010. But then I think about Joba with his innings limit finally gone, and I don’t think it would be wise to put him in the bullpen. If Joba was to be in the bullpen, would he have an innings limit next year?

    //I am by no means a B-Jobber

  • Nostra-Artist

    Brian Cashman on YES’s Yankee Hot Stove.

    http://web.yesnetwork.com/medi.....id=7151155

    Good stuff, check it out.

    • Nostra-Artist

      (5:20 mark answering a question about Granderson playing Left)

      Cash-“Yeah, it’s possible. We feel like we have two center fielders. Two starting center fielders in our outfield situation in terms of Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. Curtis Granderson is an all star Centerfielder, Brett Gardner, obviously his biggest tool is his field and run ability and we think he’s one of the defensive center fielders in the game. So it’s terrific, to be in a position as we enter as season, to have two Center fielders out of the three guys, with Nick Swisher. What’s the best alignment for us? What’s our best team? Right now, it’s Granderson in Center and Gardner in Left, but if watching the games unravel, in Spring Training, we’ve talked to Curtis about it as well, if we feel that a better team exists with Curtis Granderson in Left and Gardner in Center, if that actually shows itself, you know, our job is to put the best team in the best alignment on the field, and that’s what we’ll do.” All Players are just happy to contribute. So when I talked to Curtis Granderson, and said just in theory I want to throw an idea your way ‘what if?’ His response was “I’ll do whatever is best for the team. If you think it’s best for me in Left, it doesn’t matter” to him.

      I think you have your answer right there. Gardner is your opening day CF. The rest of it was what he has to say right now. He can’t give the job to Gardner over all-star like Granderson, they’ll have to let Brett ‘win’ the job in Spring Training. If they weren’t already thinking along those lines, why even ask Curtis how he feels about it?

      • Steve H

        What do you think they’d do if Winn was back to pre-2009 form and was clearly an upgrade over Gardner. Who plays CF then, Winn or Grandy?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          Grandy.

          Winn’s an old short-timer. He stays in LF, even if he has a Ponce-De-Leon style rejuvenation.

          • Steve H

            Agreed. It’ll be a nice problem to have if Winn just goes back to his career average.

          • Nostra-Artist

            This.

            Again, Cashman said they think Gardner is one of the best CF in Baseball. If it was Randy Winn in his prime, I don’t think it would even be discussed.

  • MikeD

    The problem with stats-based projection systems is they are incapable or predicting break-out seasons, or rapid declines. They also assume declines for players of a certain age, no matter what the circumstances. A 34-year-old who had a great season will decline because of age. A 34-year-old with an off season has no chance of a bounce-back because of age.

    The problem is what defines a baseball season and team are the opposite of all the above. Teams win because of break-out seasons, and lose because of injuries and sudden collapses. Sure, historical statistics and trends says that Mo should get a lot worse. They would have said the same last year and the year before and the year before, etc.

    I always look at the projection stats and leave feeling a bit empty. They’re just vanilla.

    • Esteban

      Yea, well PECOTA predicted a breakout for the Rays in ’08 (I know you’re saying individuals). They also got the White SOx exactly right in ’07, when people were saying the White Sox were decent. I’m cherry picking obviously, but those are just two of the predictions that I remember people criticizing and PECOTA ended up being right.

  • Accent Shallow

    Yankees 2010 payroll: $211 million, + 5 guys at slightly more than league minimum. (Source: http://spreadsheets.google.com.....utput=html )

    I was just wondering, what’s the lowest that could have been if the Yankees had just dumped salary in the offseason, and replenished the team through the farm system? That means no Granderson, no Vazquez, etc.

    Lineup:

    1B: Tex
    2B: Cano
    SS: Jeter
    3B: A-Rod
    LF: Melky/Austin Jackson
    CF: Gardner
    RF: Swisher
    C: Posada

    Staff:

    SP: Sabathia
    SP: Burnett
    SP: Pettitte
    SP: Chamberlain
    SP: Hughes

    RP: Mariano
    RP: Robertson
    RP: Aceves
    RP: Marte
    RP: Coke
    RP: Gaudin
    RP: Melancon

    Bench:

    DH: Miranda
    IF: Pena
    C: Cervelli
    OF: Jackson/Melky
    OF: Hoffman (or another UIF, whatever)

    This team would cost . . . ~$188 million, not counting obligations to Brackman, Igawa, and other players in the minors. Wow.

    • Esteban

      you did all that work? I’m impressed.

      • Accent Shallow

        Hey, Cot’s did all the work. I just added up a few numbers.

    • Section 39

      I’ll take our current team for only $23 million more. HANDS DOWN.

      Granderson, Johnson, and Vasquez are substantial improvements over that squad…

  • Ivan

    I was wondering, why ppl more often than not would rank Joe D. over Mantle, even though stats wise, Mantle beats out Dimaggio. And speaking of stats, Mantle career OPS+ is 172. Think about that, A-Rod single season best OPS+ is 177. Thats awesome.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Who ranks Joe D over Mantle? Slap those people when you speak to them.

    • Steve H

      Yeah, it may sound crazy, but Mantle is head and shoulders above Dimaggio. Over a 10 year span he led the league in OPS+ 8 times. The two times he didn’t he OPS+’d 222 and 195. Beastly. Dimaggio led the league once, there’s obviously some park factors involved as RHH vs. SH, but not enough to overcome Mantle’s utter dominance. Considering he was also considered a good to great defensive OF, it’s a shame that he only has 3 MVP’s.

      • Ivan

        Think about this, in 57 his OPS+ was at a ruthian 222, that was actually better than his 56 year when he won the triple. Can I say ridiculous.

  • A.D.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....-cuba.html

    Let the demands begin….he would be a damn nice pickup since he can play the outfield.

    • Esteban

      How do these Cuban guys end up with such non-latino names? Aroldis Chapman? Leslie Anderson? I’m Cuban myself, but it’s still weird.

      • A.D.

        Read the MLBTR comments, they discuss.

        • Steve H

          No. Never read the MLBTR comments, ever.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

            EVER! It’s like the less-amusing neutered half-brother of 4chan without the fun quirks, and a bit more focus on baseball.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              Comments you should NEVER EVER read, if you value your sanity:

              ESPN
              MLBTR
              YouTube
              LoHud

              … what else?

              • JGS

                any article on mlb.com

              • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

                Fox News (and I’m not liberal, either), MTV, Myspace Facebook status updates?

              • Tom Zig

                Fan Nation

          • A.D.

            Fair enough

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Aroldis Chapman is half Jamaican.

        • Esteban

          I see. I didn’t realize there was much immigration from Jamaica to Cuba and at the risk of getting somewhat political, I have no idea why anyone would want to immigrate from Jamaica to Cuba.

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

            You’ve never seen Locked Up Abroad, have you?

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            I said he was half Jamaican. The other half is Cuban.

            They emigrated from Jamaica to Cuba for better schools and economic opportunities. I don’t want to shock you, but… not all of the anti-communist propaganda the West wants to tell you about how awful Cuba is is entirely true.

            Shocking, I know.

            • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

              Plus, outside of finding a Johnny Rockets in US Virgin Islands, you won’t find classic cars like that anywhere else in the Caribbean.

              Shocking, I know.

              • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

                IETC.

            • Esteban

              I shouldn’t have started on this path, so I’ll just say that I believe you’re wrong to think Cuba is unfairly demonized and leave it at that. Anything more, and to paraphrase you, it would not end well.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                I’m not saying Cuba is “unfairly demonized”. I think they’re pretty fairly demonized. I’m just saying, not all of the stories about Cuba being a horrible shithole that nobody would ever live in willingly are true.

                There are parts of that government that work quite well, and there are parts of the Jamaican government that don’t work at all, and I’m not all that surprised that a Jamaican-Cuban family could look at the two islands and say, “You know what, all things considered, we can have a better life in communist Cuba than in neocolonialist Jamaica.”

                • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

                  Having been to Jamaica (and not the resort parts entirely, either), I’ll agree that certain parts of Jamaica are absolute shitholes. Beyond shitholes. As this should be “bar” politics (in other words, no discussing politics or religion), we’ll let that pass; I can’t say I know much about Cuba.

                  Serious baseball question:

                  *How confident can we be in his age?

                  *It says he plays OF/1B, which in the U.S. generally means his range is poor, or suggests an overall lack of athleticism. Does this apply to Cuban players?

                  *Will he be eligible for 2010?

                  *Does he need minor league seasoning or is he ML ready?

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                  I mean, as the son of Jamaican immigrants and the husband of a Jamaican emigre… yeah, it’s not like Jamaicans never leave Jamaica for better economic opportunities elsewhere. That’s all I was really saying.

                  Most of us come to the USA, but Cuba could also be a good step up, if you already have access to Cuban citizenship (which the Chapman family had).

                  ——————

                  As for the baseball questions, if he were a Yankee, I’d say that Chapman probably shouldn’t see the bigs any earlier than 2012. He’s probably that raw.

                  Since he’s a Red, he’ll probably be up by next year, because they need the help and need to start making an ROI. They’ll rush him in a way we wouldn’t.

                • JGS

                  and with Dusty Baker, they will probably kill him by 2012

                • Esteban

                  Sigh
                  Well, I was in Miami for the holidays visiting my relatives, and the visiting nurse for my uncle was 5 (about) years removed from living in Cuba. The stories he told made me sick, and the way he described it, Cuba is a horrible shithole where nobody would want to live (unless you’re an inner party member).

                • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

                  Yeah, I don’t know a whole lot about Jamaica outside of my visit and some general research. I do know a bit about how the IMF and World Bank really set back their progress (mostly with tariffs and the subsidies of various agricultural products, in addition to factories built at the behest of US corporations), and they’ve yet to recover.

                  I was referring to Leslie Anderson’s prospects.

                  The Reds will unfortunately feel the pressure to rush Chapman before he’ll be ready. By the time he actually were to hit his potential (a big if), he’d probably be in his age 25 season.

                  That said, if he does pan out, their rotation could be really, really impressive. Cueto, Johnny V, Homer, Chaphombre. Unbelievable raw stuff 1-4.

                • Esteban

                  And we should stop on this, this is not the proper venue for discussing Cuba. I should have avoided it, I apologize.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                  Cuba’s just… interesting.

                  It’s more complex than the Cuban emigres in Miami would have you believe. I probably can’t go into any further detail without turning this convo into a huge, lengthy, boring clusterf$%k, though, so… whatevs.

                • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

                  Gotcha. Done.

                • Esteban

                  Last thing, my family are cuban exiles, so make what you want of that.

            • Ivan

              Hey I learn something new today. Heck, I’ll root for him more cuz im jamaican myself.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                I must admit it’s one of the reasons I wanted him in pinstripes so bad.

                My family is from MoBay. The wife is from Kingston.

                Where you from?

                • Ivan

                  Majority of my family are from Jamaica. From my father side, almost all of them come from Kingston, and from my mom side come from St. Ann. Im actually born in Brooklyn.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                  Nice. You get back often? I haven’t been back in about 6 years. Been too long.

                • Ivan

                  I have not been there in 4 years. Its been long over due no doubt.

                • pat

                  BY THE BEACH

                  BOYYYYYYY

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                  Oh, shit, I don’t wanna be the first n$%#a to die by a crossbow!!!

  • Nostra-Artist

    Yankee Hot Stove is on YES right now.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

    Al Harrington:

    Epic FAIL.

    • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

      Joey Harrington:

      Epic WIN.

      (Where you at, Stryker?)

    • Esteban

      That whole play was terrible. Walt Clyde correctly was imploring the Knicks to move around before the in bounds pass

  • Jeff Boone

    Not to be the statistics nerd….but does anybody know the historical correlation between PECOTA projections and actual stats?

    • Moshe Mandel

      For hitters, pretty good, if I remember correctly. For pitchers, not so much. I’m trying to find the article on this.

      • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

        For hitters, pretty good, if I remember correctly.

        Non-Matt Wieters division.

        • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

          Did you know he slugged Pi in 2009?

          /PECOTA’d

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

    So now Schefter and the ESPN Insider crew say that Vernon Gholston won’t be cut and will be back.

    I get that move a little, because with no ability to sign free agents unless we lose one (and cutting a player doesn’t count as a lost free agent), we can’t really afford to cut ANYONE since they can’t be replaced.

    Still, though… an uncapped year is the prime time to cut all the bad contracts on the books and take the cap hit, since there’s no cap hit. That’s why Kerry Rhodes is likely gone.

    I don’t get that. Now is the time to ax Gholston. I’d rather give his snaps to Jamaal Westerman and call it a day.

    • Steve H

      Yeah, the players really don’t want to get to an uncapped year. Alot of those otherwise uncuttable bad contract cap hits will be gone (see ya Adalius), and the majority of the owners won’t overspend. Sure Jones and Snyder will throw some big bucks around, but they did that anyway. With no salary cap comes no salary floor, the players likely have a rude awakening coming. That fact that all of this comes during a recession will only compound their problem.

  • Steve H

    So if Randy Winn returns to his pre-2009 days, that would go a long way to subsiding any Nick Johnson injury fears. If Johnson were to get hurt, and Winn is ops+’ing 100, we could run a sick defensive outfield of Grandy/Gardy/Winn(dy) that would be above average/below average/average offensively, and have Swish DH. With all of the offense in the infield and behind the plate, we could definitely get away with that. And the pitchers would love it. It wouldn’t be full time either, Posada would get some time at DH, and you could also have Swish play some 1B and have Tex DH (very rarely). If Johnson is on the DL, you’d also bring up a Miranda, or maybe someone from the Thames/Gomes/Baldelli/Pena group that could potentially sing minor league deals. Going back to that OF defense though, holy shit.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      This could be our best OF defense since… 1989?

      Rickey, Roberto Kelly, Jesse Barfield?

    • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

      Yeah, Winn as the 4th OF > Hoffmann as the 4th OF.

      • Steve H

        Agreed. And with Hoffman as the 5th OF, it gives him a legit chance to stick if they like what they see out of him.

        • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

          Yep. I’ll have a piece on the bench going up at 1 PM tomorrow.

          /attention whore’d

          • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

            I can’t hold out that long. Make it 11. That’s around the time I really lose productivity at work.

            • Steve H

              What time do you start, 10:45?

              • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

                I make my own hours even though I show up at 8:45. Sure, I’m physically there, but I “get in the flow” from about 10-11, 3-5:30. That time in before and in between is all bullshit, I-look-busy work.

                Nobody seems to notice or care since I’m the first one there and usually the last to leave, even though my actual productivity is fairly average.

                It’s pretty sweet.

          • Steve H

            A piece on the bench? Women don’t belong in the dugout.

            /Keith Hernandez’d

            Oh, you meant a piece, as in a post, as opposed to a piece of…, ok I got ya.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              I’m Keith Hernandez.

              • Steve H

                I indirectly spoke to Keith Hernandez once. I was on the phone with someone who had Keith Hernandez in his office, I told him to thank Keith for 1986 for me. I heard him laugh. One of the highlights of my life. I mean, Keith Hernandez!

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

                  Keith Hernandez then used his contacts in the NYPD to use the caller ID number to track down your house. He went there and had sex with your mother.

                  She loved it.

                • Steve H

                  I despise Keith Hernandez!

                  /Newman’d

              • Aj

                That was an over the top joke if I’ve ever heard one.

  • Lanny

    Find it hard to take Pecota seriously if they have Mariano Rivera having a poor season.

    Also tough to project a team that scores 900+ runs and having a poor season. The Sox presently dont have the capabilities to score enough. And the Rays are all hope and promise. We all know how young pitching is volatile and not reliable.

    • pat

      That’s the problem with their methods when it comes to transcendent players. There’s no accurate comparison age wise.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Think about it, though. Lanny said:

        Find it hard to take Pecota seriously if they have Mariano Rivera having a poor season.

        Mariano Rivera is the freaking textbook definition of a statistical outlier. The fact that PECOTA, a statistical projection system, has problems accurately predicting A KNOWN STATISTICAL OUTLIER is not really a good reason to not trust the accuracy of a statistical projection system.

        PECOTA has problems predicting people who are often unpredictably good. Mariano Rivera is the exception that PROVES the rule. Exceptions don’t DISPROVE the rule.

        • Nostra-Artist

          PECOTA’s bad with pitchers in general, IIRC. I think Mo did a piece on this last year that had Edwar Ramirez having a terrific season.

          The young guys in the bullpen and bench may be skewing the numbers as well. PECOTA might think Hughes is a 5+ ERA pitcher. As a starter, maybe. As a reliever? No way.

  • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

    With Winn in tow, what are the chances Don’t-Hassle-The-Hoff isn’t returned to the Dodgers by season’s end? Considering how valuable roster spots can get, I’m going to say it’s pretty low.

    • Steve H

      The 4 guys ahead of him all have good track records with health, so I think he has a shot to stick as the #5 OF. Considering the versatility of the other 4 OF’s, it’s almost like Hoff is the 5.5 OF, he won’t have the role of a typical 5th OF due to the OF’s in front of him. But again, maybe they bring Baldelli into camp and he forces his way onto the team, Hoff could be gone before April.

      • Nostra-Artist

        Since were talking 5th OFs, throw Greg Golson in the mix as well.

        • pat

          Golson can be optioned tho right? Teh Hoff cannot.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          Meh, until Golson can hit AAA pitching, he’s a 6th OF.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      I bet he sticks. We carried 5 outfielders on the active roster for what, like 80% of the regular season days last year?

      Started with Damon-Melky-Swish-Gardner-Nady. Nady was eventually replaced with Hinske/Hairston.

      It’s a little tougher this year because Swish/Nady/Hinske/Hairston could also play some IF spots, and this year’s fivesome is really 4 OF-only guys plus Swish, but I bet we make it work.

      The main reason we kept carrying two UTIs for most of last year was worries about ARod’s balky hip, and now he’s good money. We’re not likely to have days where we need to rest two of our three non-1B infielders at once, so a Cervelli-Peña-4th OF-5th OF bench is doable.

    • pat

      I believe Hoffman had good splits vs lefties in his milb career. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him work himself into a few games vs LHP.

      Unfortunately the only place that does milb splits (milb.com) took down his regular season stats and put up the ones from his few winter league games.

      • Brooklyn Ed

        hmm…baseball reference say hello. lol.

        • pat

          They don’t do minor league splits.

      • http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0902/mlb.alex.rodriguez.through.the.years/images/1993.alex-rodriguez.jpg Drew

        What about minorleaguesplits.com

        585 AB’s vs Lefties 287/362/390

        Last year in a sss he hit 308/432/542(148PA’s)

  • Steve H

    TSJC, when’s your next mock draft? And what do you think of the Tebow to the Pats projections? With 3 2nd round picks I wouldn’t mind them taking a shot, but I don’t know what the hell they’d do with him either. Belichick and Meyer are good friends, so if they did take him, I’d have to think he’d have some good reason.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      I have a rough idea in my head right now, but I like to wait for the combine to really bang out a detailed one. Plus, that’s when they do the coin flips to settle the picks. There’s THREE of them this year, most I can remember.

      Tebow to the Pats… not gonna happen. Ignore that bullshit. Belichick is smarter than that.

      Tim Tebow is an amazing college football player. He has NO position in the NFL. None. He’s a poor man’s Pat White, and Pat White himself is barely a fringy NFL player. Tebow is on the Eric Crouch plan. Whomever drafts him will regret it. By the time Jesus Montero wins his first MVP in 2015, Tim Tebow will already be in the CFL.

      • pat

        Not a fan of the Satchel Paige windmill delivery?

      • Steve H

        Phew. Of course if he took him, I’d be somewhat happy, thinking the Belichick knew something the rest of us didn’t.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Better idea than using one of those three second rounders on Tim Tebow:

      Try to trade for Brandon Marshall. Think about it.

      • Steve H

        Thinking…..

        Sign me up.

    • Ivan

      This is one of the weaker drafts at the QB position no?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Yes.

        Bradford and Clausen are the only two true first rounders, and personally, both of them scare the bejesus out of me. I’m freaking ECSTATIC that my team already has a franchise QB and doesn’t need one.

        If they were in last year’s class, I’d put them both behind Stafford, Sanchez, AND Josh Freeman without blinking twice.

        Bradford is super accurate but has a funky delivery and has basically ZERO experience in a pro-style offense and doesn’t read defenses well. He’s gonna have a long learning curve.

        Clausen fits the NFL game better and makes better decisions, but he’s athletically pretty average. I don’t know if he can make the throws. He won’t be a bad NFL QB, but I doubt he’ll ever be a great one.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Off the top of my head, right now at this minute:

      1 STL DE Ndamukong Suh
      2 DET DE Gerald McCoy
      3 TB S Eric Berry
      4 WAS QB Jimmy Clausen
      5 KC T Russell Okung
      6 SEA DE Derrick Morgan
      7 CLE trades down with SEA who takes QB Sam Bradford
      8 OAK DE Carlos Dunlap
      9 BUF T Anthony Davis
      10 DEN CB Joe Haden

      • Reggie C.

        HOw about Golden Tate as a Jets second rounder? NOt sure if he’d be a first round pick, but if the Jets loaded up on 2nd rounders as you suggested a couple days ago, Tate could be a Steve Smith-type WR that Sanchez sorely needs.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          He won’t be there.

          Remember, we have the 29th pick in the round. If we don’t take Tate at the bottom of the first round, he’ll be long gone by the time we come up on the board again.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            And, I doubt he’d be there if we trade down into the high second as well.

      • http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0902/mlb.alex.rodriguez.through.the.years/images/1993.alex-rodriguez.jpg Drew

        I’m really conflicted about the Skins selecting J-Claus. We need a QB in the worst way but I just don’t see him making it.

        • Reggie C.

          Take Tebow by all means then. He’s got all the intangibles to make it. As a Gmen fan, I would applaud the selection.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            Take Tebow by all means then. He’s got all the intangibles to make it.

            Mel Kiper Jr. actually said “Tebow has #1 overall pick level intangibles” the other day.

            As if that statement actually means anything of any value. I’m sure he’s an awesome dude. He’d make an excellent mascot or hype man. He’s not an NFL player, though.

            • Ivan

              If you ask Mel Kiper Jr, do you think Tebow has a future in the NFL, he probably say not much. Its like a really ugly girl who you dont want to dis and you say shit like she has a great personality or she makes a great friend.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          You’re either taking Bradford or Clausen.

          If I were your GM, though, I’d take either Okung, Morgan, or trade down. I’m not biting on either of these QBs. Way too much bust potential. I’d sooner take Tony Pike, Daryll Clark, or Dan LeFevour in the 3rd/4th rounds where the risk threshold is lower.

  • Nostra-Artist

    Thank

    the

    Lord

    http://www.nydailynews.com/new.....terro.html

    or ‘The Savior’ depending on your political affiliation.

  • Steve H

    I traded Josh Smith/Deron Williams/OJ Mayo for Durant/J-Rich/Hinrich today. Did I let my mancrush of Durant get in the way? I’m still not sure Smith has turned the corner, and Mayo’s somewhat inconsistent. He also plays with Z-Bo, who manages to destroy teams all by himself. Considering I have Kobe and Melo already, I probably didn’t need Durant, but he’s the 2nd ranked player in Yahoo leagues this year, and 99/100 in fantasy trades the team that gets the best player wins.

    • Ivan

      Am a fan of Durant. He just needs to improved his assist totals and D. His mid-range game is terrific, and the type of player who’ll age well.

      • pat

        Haha, dudes like 21, he has a while to go before u worry about him aging well.

  • Nostra-Artist

    What do you expect for a pack of cigarettes?

    http://www.thesmokinggun.com/a.....cigs1.html

    • Steve H

      Shouldn’t they be the ones paying/bartering for sex?

    • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

      Kill it wit fire! Gah, I quit a while ago, but at no point in my life had I ever been desperate enough to do something like that for a pack of cigarettes.

      Awesome story.

  • http://www.teamnerdrage.com dr mrs the yankee

    if the Yankees win 93 games and miss the playoffs, I will shake my fist at the AL East, really nothing else to do at that point.

  • http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0902/mlb.alex.rodriguez.through.the.years/images/1993.alex-rodriguez.jpg Drew

    I wonder what Wanger is going to get. Can’t be more than a few mil, can it?

  • http://jukeofurl.wordpress.com Juke Early

    1. Baseball Prospectus has an anti-NYY bias. Let’s play the @#%&*! season out. OK?

    2. For some of you who like to trot out your own cliched POV on “real” life. IF you are ever forced to choose between a basement & a doorway and you choose the doorway, post a pic on the web. What? oh, go to a Public Library, they have free net access.

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