Archive for January, 2010

Jan
11

For 2010, what role Aceves?

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It’s sometimes hard to believe that Alfredo Aceves, the forgotten man out of Spring Training who didn’t arrive in the Bronx until May last year, finished with the fourth most wins on the Yankees. He always seemed to enter the game at exactly the right time, and he ended up with 10 wins and just one loss.

In many respects, Alfredo Aceves’ 2009 campaign helps highlight a lot of statistical platitudes about pitching. Relief wins are rather meaningless when some of them come in extra innings and others are brought about by virtue of long relief, multiple-inning appearances. He did, as Steve Lombardi wrote at Was Watching over the weekend, vulture his wins.

As a Posnanskian aside, Aceves’ 2009 splits also show how pitchers’ numbers respond to luck. In the first half, he threw 43.1 innings, allowed 34 hits, walked nine and struck out 7.5 per 9 IP. His ERA was 2.49. In the second half, he threw 40.2 innings, allowed 35 hits, walked eight and struck out 7.3 per 9 IP. Despite allowing fewer home runs and sporting a WHIP just 0.065 higher in the second half, his ERA over those 40.2 innings sat at 4.65. Luck changed, and his ERA settled in at a respectable 3.54 for the season.

Basically, Aceves was an above-average reliever, Lombardi says, who won more games than he probably should have. As Steve rightly points out, the odds of Aceves doing that again are slim, and he says, “Let’s hope the Yankees aren’t banking a repeat of this from Aceves this season.”

Now, I don’t wish to denigrate Alfredo Aceves. He turned in a very respectable season for the Yanks after spending a month at AAA. He had a WXRL of 2.522 and an ARP of 12.9. By many respects, he was the Yanks’ third most valuable reliever in 2009 due to his high innings total and relatively high-leverage usage. He can get a ground ball; he can get a K; he can throw short stints or make long appearances. All in all, he’s a very good guy to have.

But the Yankees know Aceves’ limitations as well. His shoulder started barking in late July, and he seemed to hit a mid-summer wall. He was not very consistent in limited October use and, as any pitcher, fares better against less patient hitters. How will the Yanks use him in 2010?

Well, from the start, Aceves will see his spot on the depth charts bumped down a bit. The Yankees will, in all likelihood, head into 2010 with Mariano Rivera as the closer, either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, David Robertson as the go-to strike out guy, Damaso Marte as the lefty specialist and Chad Gaudin as the primary long reliever. Aceves stands to be the sixth guy out of the pen and the Yanks’ seventh or eighth starter.

In the end, the Mexican Gangster adds some depth the Yankees’ bullpen. He does a good job of keeping hitters off base and generally keeps the ball in the park. He’s versatile and adopted well to different roles. With Javier Vazquez around, the improvement to Yanks’ pitching staff trickles down the bullpen, and the team should, if all goes according to plan, not need Aceves to swoop in and nab those vulture wins this year.

Above: Al Aceves pitches against the Orioles in July. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Categories : Death by Bullpen
Comments (66)

The Yankees had the best offense in baseball last year, and frankly it wasn’t all that close either. They led the big leagues with a .362 team on-base percentage (Boston was second at .352) and a .478 slugging percentage (Boston was again second at .454), and their .283 team batting average was just two points behind the Angels for the baseball’s best. And before you try the bandbox excuse, you should know that the team’s road OBP (.355) was still the best in baseball, ditto their SLG (.466). Their road AVG was identical to their home AVG.

Last Friday, Andy Hellicksonstine (clever) at DRays Bay took a look at Tampa’s 2009 offense by comparing their actual output with their expected output based on xBABIP, which inspired this post. xBABIP is expected batting average on balls in play, and if a player has a higher xBABIP than BABIP, it means they were a little unlucky. You would have expected to see them pick up a few more hits than they actually did. We always point to BABIP to say so-and-so was lucky/unlucky last year, however BABIP itself is pretty simplistic. It doesn’t consider the type of balls the batter puts in play (LD > GB > FB), which xBABIP does. If you want to learn more about xBABIP, then JFGI.

Let’s take a look at how the Yanks’ batters actually performed last year compared to what we’d expect. If any table in this post is tough to read, click on it to open a larger view. Don’t worry, they’ll all open in fresh tabs.


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Categories : Analysis, Offense
Comments (122)

2009 Season Record: 103-59 (915 RS, 753 RA), won AL East by 8 games, finished with the best record in MLB by 6 games, won 27th World Series

Top stories from last week:

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Categories : Polls
Comments (56)

We were just about finished with the left field closing arguments series, but then we learned that the Yankees and Jerry Hariston are in serious talks. So we’ll bring back the series to examine the Yankees’ 2009 second-half utility player.

We titled this series left field closing arguments, but Jerry Hairston isn’t so much a left field solution as he is a roster solution. Because he can play every position except pitcher and catcher 1, the Yankees can better cover their bench. One player becomes the backup outfielder and backup infielder, thereby creating in essence an extra roster spot. The Yankees can find many uses for that, both to start the season and later on, when they could swing a trade for a more valuable bench asset.

With a 12-man pitching staff, the Yankees have room for just four bench players. Usually that would consist of a backup infielder, outfielder, and catcher, plus one wild card position. By combining the backup infielder and outfielder into one player, Hairston, the Yankees can then afford two wild card bench spots. That allows them the flexibility to give Jamie Hoffmann a real shot to stick with the team. They could also keep Juan Miranda on the bench for pinch-hitting situations.

As a left field solution, Hairston doesn’t provide an attractive case. In only two seasons has he hit above league average, and in this seasons he came to the plate a total of 631 times. His highest OPS+ during a season in which he got 400 or more plate appearances was 92, all the way back in 2002, when he was the regular second baseman for the Orioles. It looks like too much exposure can be detrimental to his production.

The Cincinnati Reds found that out first hand last season. They got excellent production from Hairston in 2008 after signing him to a minor league deal, the second straight year in which Hairston had to settle for one. In 297 plate appearances he hit .326/.384/.487 while playing all positions 4 through 9. Apparently impressed, the Reds signed Hairston to a $2 million major league contract for 2009.

He started off slowly in April, but from May 5 to May 30, over 103 plate appearances, Hairston hit .326/.370/.620. It wouldn’t last. From May 30 through July 30, the last game he played for the Reds, Hairston came to the plate 191 times and got just 43 hits (.247 BA), including 10 doubles and two home runs. Already out of the race, the Reds traded him to the Yankees for Chase Weems. Used as A-Rod‘s primary backup at third base and as the fourth outfielder, Hairston hit fairly well as a Yankee, going 18 for 76 (.237) with five doubles two home runs, and 11 walks (to just eight strikeouts).

Offense, however, is just a bonus for Hairston. His true value lies in his ability to cover every position on the diamond. That provides the Yankees with flexibility for their final bench spot. It’s very much like the Mariners trading Bill Hall for Casey Kotchman. As Jeff from Lookout Landing explains, “this isn’t about Kotchman over the alternative first basemen. Chances are, this is about Kotchman and a righty OF over the alternative first basemen and Hall.” For the Yankees, this is about Hairston and the extra bench spot over a left fielder like Reed Johnson a utility infielder like Ramiro Pena.

As a pure left fielder, there are better options. But as a total roster solution, the Yankees will do well to sign Jerry Hairston. He provides them the flexibility to build and change their bench over the course of the season, adding players as they need them. On a team with just four bench slots, combining two of them provides value. Hairston should be well worth a $2 to $3 million contract.

Photo credit: AP Photo/Elise Amendola



1And in the playoffs, after Jorge Posada subbed for Jose Molina, Hairston was said to be the emergency catcher. (Up)

Categories : Hot Stove League
Comments (44)

According to television reports on CBS 5 (KPIX) out of San Francisco, the Giants have signed Aubrey Huff to a one-year deal worth $3MM. He’ll man first base for the Gigantes, pushing Kung Fu Panda to third and Mark DeRosa to left.

Why do you care? Because Huff’s signing presumably eliminates another potential landing spot for Johnny Damon. With the Mets, Cardinals, and now the Giants out of the Damon sweepstakes, the only two realistic suitors left are the Yanks and Braves. I suppose Scott Boras could find another mystery team to show interest in Johnny, though we all know that would be a load of crap. Damon’s options are dwindling, and that could be very good news for the Yanks.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
Comments (112)
Jan
10

Derek Getting Married

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In news that led my sister to proclaim, not entirely jokingly, today one of the ten worst of her life, The Post reports that Derek Jeter and Minka Kelly have set a date for their wedding. The story has not been confirmed by Jeter’s people yet, but it does feature some rather creative Page 6-style reporting from Rupert Murdoch’s tabloid.

According to Taylor Vecsey and Brad Hamilton, the two will tie in the knot at Oheka Castle in Huntington on November 5, a few days after a potential Game 7 of the World Series. How the Post got the story makes for a great lesson in tabloid journalism:

Oheka, known for fiercely protecting the privacy of its guests, would not comment. But a Post reporter, posing as a bride-to-be seeking to book a wedding that weekend, was shown a scheduling calendar printout as sales manager Rick Bellando explained that the castle hosts just one wedding per day — and the entire weekend in question was already booked.

A quick peek at the calendar revealed Jeter’s name in big bold letters. When our spy asked if couples were ever open to switching dates for money, Bellando said most were so wealthy, money was not an issue.

Bellando, though, denied that the Jeter in their book is the Jeter we know and love. “Oh, that’s not Derek Jeter. We wouldn’t use his real name if it were,” he said to the Post reporter. “When the Jonas brother got married here last month, we used a different name.”

So take that for what you will. Considering the persistent rumors and Jeter’s advancing age, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the long-time couple were finally gearing up to the tie the knot this fall. It should be make, at least, for one star-studded wedding.

Anyway, if you still have open-thread items to discuss today after two football OTs, feel free to use this one as a free-for-all. The Nets play at 7 p.m., and the Devils’ game is already in progress. We’ll be back in a bit with more juicy tabloid rumors Yankee news and analysis later.

Above: A fan in August congratulates Derek and Minka on their then-rumored engagement. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Categories : News
Comments (135)
Jan
10

Open Thread: Packers at Cardinals

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Well this one should feature lots of offense, so enjoy the shootout.

Comments (209)

We finally have some confirmation. The man who originally broke the story – Yahoo’s Jeff Passan – has confirmed that the Reds have signed Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman to a five year contract worth a total of $30M. That’s a lot of eggs for a mid-market team to put into one basket, so they must have a lot of faith in their talent evaluators.

The Yankees have been pretty much out of the Chapman sweepstakes, citing concerns about his asking price, makeup, and long-term role.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
Comments (67)

While the Yankees continue to wait and wait and wait for the market for second and third tier free agent outfielders to develop, Johnny Damon toils in limbo, and he indicated to Nick Cafardo that he’s hasn’t completely closed the door on a return to the Bronx. ā€œI knew I’d probably have to take a pay cut, just based on the way the economy is in this country and baseball,” said Damon. “But I thought I had a productive season and I think I showed people I can play and still do something at a high level.’’

Cafardo says Scott Boras came to the Yanks and proposed a $10M salary, however the Yanks are thinking more along the lines of $6-7M, a paycut Damon isn’t willing to take. He did say he’d be more than willing to play for Atlanta, who has a little bit of money to spend and a perpetual need for offense. Buster Olney says that executives from other clubs are convinced that he’ll end up back in New York.

It’s looking more and more like Johnny Damon is the Bobby Abreu of this offseason. In fact, we can say with certainty that he is. Abreu ended up taking close to a 70% paycut when he finally signed in mid-February, and while I’m not sure Johnny will have to take that big of a cut, it’s not going to be pretty.

Categories : Hot Stove League
Comments (50)
Jan
10

Open Thread: Ravens at Patroits

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The Pats are without God’s gift to slot receivers, but their key to success is stopping New York’s own Ray Rice. Enjoy the game.

Comments (193)