Archive for January, 2010
Bench empties as Hinske lands in Atlanta
Posted by: | CommentsThe Braves signed a former Yankee outfielder late last night, but it wasn’t Johnny Damon, the one we half-expect them to land. Instead, Atlanta signed Eric Hinske to a one-year deal. The utility player will serve as a bench player and pinch-hitter for the Braves.
Hinske came to the Yankees in mid-2009 in a deal that sent Casey Erickson and Eric Fryer to the Pirates. While with the Yanks, he hit .226/.316/.512 with seven home runs in 98 plate appearances. In the postseason, he made just one appearance and walked during the World Series. He also inspired one of the all-time best Beyond the Box Score posts.
Generally, we would consider this a minor Hot Stove move, but it has some interesting ramifications for the 2010 Yankees. Earlier this off-season, we had heard that Hinske was interested in playing with Japan, and for a brief second, it sounded as though the Yankees were interested in bringing him back as a bench player. While atrocious in the field, Hinske provided the team with some much-needed pop off the bench. Clearly, though, the Yankees were willing to let him walk.
On a grander scheme, then, Hinske’s departure highlights a current problem with the Yankees. Their bench as it stands right now is really bad. Those not starting include Francisco Cervelli, Jamie Hoffmann and Ramiro Peña. Jerry Hairston is a free agent, and outside of Juan Miranda — deadly against righties, deathly against lefties — the Yanks have no obvious in-house options for their remaining bench spots.
Over the last few years, we’ve seen Brian Cashman mold and reshape his bench over the course of the baseball season, and this year is shaping up to be no exception. Reupping with Hairston is no sure thing as the Padres seem to have their sights set on him, and the list of remaining free agents feature some intriguing bats who will probably cost too much money.
To start the year, the Yanks will probably issue a bunch of Spring Training invites and hope that they can catch lightning in a bottle for a few months. With All Stars at nearly every position, that is right now the best we can hope for unless the Yankees are willing to overpay some role players, and that the team will not do.
Cashman: ‘Our team is, for the most part, set’
Posted by: | CommentsThe headline is what Brian Cashman said to The Record’s Pete Caldera. But Cashman didn’t leave it at that. He got a bit more specific about the teams plans.
On left field: “We have a left fielder. We do like Brett Gardner.”
On any further acquisitions: “We’re just playing with the bench right now.”
Though there’s no quote for it, Caldera notes that the team is not quite done: “Cashman acknowledged that he’s searching for a right-handed hitter.” That would seemingly take Johnny Damon out of play, but I’ll drop the never say never cliche with that. It seems more and more likely that the Yankees will sign, or attempt to sign, Reed Johnson.
Remembering Randy
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Over 21 years ago, a tall and lanky lefthander from Northern California with a University of Southern California education made his Major League debut as a member of the now defunct Montreal Expos, throwing five innings of two run ball against the Pirates to earn his first Major League win. The next season he made 28 starts and walked 96 batters in 160.2 innings, getting traded to Seattle in the process. He would go on to lead the big leagues in walks in 1990 (120 BB), 1991 (152), and 1992 (140), and it wasn’t until his age-29 season that he broke through and established himself as an elite starting pitcher.
That pitcher walked away from the game yesterday, having led the league in strikeouts nine times and being named the Cy Young Award winner five times. He would finish in the top three of the voting on four other occasions. Randy Johnson hangs ‘em up as one of the game’s very best, though his time in New York is largely remembered as a disappointment.
George Steinbrenner had long desired to bring The Big Unit to the Bronx, and he made no secret of it. “God, who wouldn’t love to have Randy Johnson?” Steinbrenner told ESPN Radio in 2004. “He’s a dominator and we’d love to have him. Anybody would love to have him.” The Boss’ wish came true following the ’04 season, when he masterminded a deal that sent Javy Vazquez plus two prospects and cash to Arizona for Johnson. Before he even had a chance to put on his jersey during the introductory press conference, the team gave Johnson a two-year contract extension worth $32M, and he responded by roughing up a CBS cameraman on a midtown sidewalk.
Expectations were high heading into 2005, after all Johnson was coming off a season in which he struck out 290 and allowed just 221 baserunners in 245.2 innings. Unfortunately, Randy was rather ordinary out of the gate. After allowing one run in six innings to earn the win against the Red Sox on Opening Day, Johnson posted a 4.39 ERA and a .751 OPS against in his next 16 starts. His record stood at 6-6 on July 1st, and he had lost a full mile an hour off his fastball from the year before.
Johnson settled in and was very good down the stretch, pitching to a 3.32 ERA with a .648 OPS against in his final 17 starts. The Yankees won five of his six starts against Boston, which proved to be the difference in the AL East race. The two clubs finished with identical 95-67 records, but the Yanks were crowned division champs because they had won the season series 10-9.
Lined up to start Game Three of the ALDS against the Angels, Johnson lasted just three innings and allowed five runs as the Yanks got creamed on their own turf. By the time he came out of the bullpen in relief of Mike Mussina in Game Five, the Yankees’ fate was all but sealed. RJ had been the team’s best starter by a considerable margin all season, however the blame for their early playoff exit was hoisted squarely onto his shoulders.
Heading into the 2006 season, many expected big things out of The Big Unit since he had a season to acclimate himself to New York under his belt. “I think it will be more comfortable for him,” said manager Joe Torre. “I think that’s been from Spring Training all the way through. It’s been less hectic than last year.”
Johnson dominated the A’s on Opening Day, though his ERA stood at 5.25 on July 1st. He lost even more giddy-up off his fastball and battled lower back soreness the rest of the season, though it wasn’t until the end of the year that he decided to get it checked out. It was revealed that Johnson had a herniated disc in his back, and he needed an epidural before being cleared to take the mound in the ALDS. Against the Tigers, Johnson tossed another postseason dud in pinstripes, allowing five runs in just over five innings in Game Three as the Yanks were again sent home prematurely.
At 43-years-old and with a bad back, GM Brian Cashman traded Johnson back to the Diamondbacks for a reliever and three prospects after the 2006 campaign. In two years with the Yankees, Randy had a more than respectable 34-19 record with a 4.39 ERA, though his 6.92 ERA in three postseason appearances remain his Yankee legacy. His time in pinstripes had no effect on his status as a future first ballot Hall of Famer, though he’s viewed as just another mercenary – a grumpy mercenary, nonetheless – that failed to do the job he was brought in to do. He failed not because he was soft or because he didn’t care, but because he was unable to maintain his historical dominance into his 40′s.
Unfortunately for Yankee fans, Johnson will perhaps be better remembered for the damage he did against the Yanks than he did for them. He allowed just five hits in ten innings against the Bombers during the 1995 ALDS, winning Game Three before coming out of the bullpen to win the deciding Game Five. During the 2001 World Series, he beat the Yanks in Games Two, Six, and Seven, clinching the World Championship in relief after throwing seven innings the night before.
Randy Johnson announced his retirement from baseball last night, and it closed the book on perhaps the most dominant starting pitching career we’ll ever see. He retired with 739 more strikeouts than any other lefthanded pitcher in the history of baseball, and his career mark of 10.61 strikeouts per nine innings is the best by any pitcher ever. He’s the oldest pitcher in history to throw a perfect game (40), and this past season he joined the exclusive 300 win club.
The Big Unit may have been a big disappointment in New York because of his failure to deliver a World Championship, but the game said goodbye to one of it’s all-time greats yesterday.
Photo Credit: Tony Gutierrez, AP
How many homers would Johnny Damon hit in other ballparks?
Posted by: | CommentsOne line we’ve parroted this off-season is that Johnny Damon is more valuable to the Yankees than any other team because his plate skills align well with Yankee Stadium. With the shorter porch in right, Damon can turn what would be fly balls in other parks into home runs. Yet it’s tough to determine just how many of his home runs would have stayed in other parks. That is, until the Ballpark Overlay Tool. Using this and Hit Tracker, we can see how the same hits would have landed in other home ballparks.
The tool is quite basic. It’s a 1.2MB Photoshop file consisting of 31 layers. The first 30 represent the dimensions of each major league ballpark. The last is for our manipulation. By going to a player’s home run chart on Hit Tracker, we can paste the image onto that 31st layer, unhide the layer of the appropriate ballpark, and make our observations. So let’s look at Damon’s 2009 home runs from the perspective of Turner Field and AT&T Park, homes of the Braves and Giants, two potential Damon suitors.
Damon at Turner Field:
Damon at AT&T Park:
It looks like at least seven of Damon’s Yankee Stadium home runs would have stayed in the park at Turner, and six would have stayed in at AT&T — though there are four home runs on the borderline. So, while Damon still would have hit a healthy number of home runs at AT&T Park and Turner field, there would certainly be a drop-off, especially on the home runs towards right-center. That’s where he took the greatest advantage of Yankee Stadium.
Of course, things change from year to year, and in Damon’s case, so would the pitchers. This in no way means that Johnny will hit six or seven fewer home runs at home if he signs with the Braves or Giants. Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley explains in the comments on Capitol Avenue Club:
I think it should be noted, however (NERD ALERT!), that in using this for analysis one can’t just say, “X amount of Player’s homers in Old Ballpark would not have been homers in New Ballpark, so he should be expected to hit X less home runs.”
Albert Pujols, one of the most consistent power hitters in the game, has a standard deviation of 6 HR per season with an average of 41. That means that roughly 68% of the time, we expect Pujols to hit between 35-47 HR, and 29-53 HR 95% of the time. So, if he was moving to Seattle, we could point out that X amount of his HR wouldn’t have cleared the fence at Safeco, but he would have to have hit a lot of cheapies for it to affect our analysis of his power output.
This overlay analysis requires one to effectively chop the available sample size in half, which certainly raises the uncertainty level, especially with younger players.
The post’s author goes on to note other factors which would affect a player’s home run totals in other ballparks, including wind and fence height. There’s also the issue of long fly balls that stay inside larger ballparks but would fly out of others. I’m not so sure that makes a big difference in Damon’s case. I don’t remember him smashing balls the opposite way very often, and it’s in left-center that Yankee Stadium is at its most spacious.
Still, it’s an interesting tool that can help us better understand how a ballpark factors into a player’s performance. It leaves many questions unanswered — in addition to those above, the question of whether Damon shoots for the fence at YS remains a mystery — but I think it makes pretty clear that Damon’s power at other home ballparks just wouldn’t be the same as in Yankee Stadium. That factor, perhaps, is the leading reason for Damon’s return to the Bronx.
Glove slap to Tango for the link.
If you want to play with the tool, you’ll need either Adobe Photoshop or GIMP. You can then download the Ballpark Overlay Tool. Once you open it up, head to Hit Tracker and find a player. Right click on his home run chart and select Copy Image. Paste that into the Player layer and unhide the ballpark you want to examine. It’s a damn entertaining tool, I must say.
Update: Commenter JGS asked that I overlay Damon’s home runs over Yankee Stadium, and I’m glad he did.
Hmm…I guess there’s a reason that the Ballpark Overlay Tool is still in beta testing.
Open Thread: The best players in baseball
Posted by: | CommentsWhen it comes to the current best player in baseball, I don’t think anyone will argue with Albert Pujols. After all, we’ve even created a designation to separate him from the rest of the league: Non-Pujols Division. So when someone claims that so and so is the best player in baseball, it usually comes with the NPD qualifier.
Still, the discussion of the best player in the game at any given time fuels many a bar discussion. It becomes even more relevant around this time of year, when we argue about who deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. If a player was the best in baseball for a few years running, he should probably be in the HOF, right?
True to his (long) form, Joe Posnanski examines the best players in baseball from 1970 through the present. He covers every single year, but the analysis goes beyond that. For each year, Joe looks at each player’s Win Shares over a five-year period. So for 1970, Joe looked at Win Shares for all players from 1970 through 1974. Then for 1971 he looked for the highest Win Share total from ’71 through ’75. It leads to some pretty interesting results.
The standout players on the list: Joe Morgan, Mike Schmidt, Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols. Hall of Famers, all of them, without question. Wade Boggs held the title for three straight five-year periods (essentially 1984 through 1990), and Will Clark had it from 1987 through 1992. Making a single appearance on the list: Ken Singleton, from ’75 through ’79, bridging the gap between Morgan and Schmidt; Tim Raines, ’83 through ’87, bridging the gap between Schmidt and Boggs; Craig Biggio, ’95 through ’99; and Jeff Bagwell, ’96 through ’00. The last two messed up Barry Bonds’s continued dominance. Win Shares had Bonds as the best player in baseball from 1989 through the ’94-’98 period, and then again from the ’91-’01 period through ’00-’04. Pujols takes over from there.
Noticeably absent from the list: Alex Rodriguez. He was “close” or “in the discussion” for every period starting from ’96-’00. JoePos does address this, noting the fallibility of Win Shares:
For instance, Alex Rodriguez never quite made it as the best player — thank you Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols — but he was close seven times. I think you could make a pretty strong argument that A-Rod was, at times, the best player in baseball.
The whole thing is a fascinating read, so head on over there and at least skim it. I don’t blame you if you don’t read through it all — it’s a typical Posnanski behemoth.
When you’re done, return for tonight’s Open Thread.
As expected, Holliday lands with Cards
Posted by: | CommentsAnyone holding out hope that the Yankees would swoop in and sign Matt Holliday will be disappointed to hear that he’s signed with the Cardinals. The deal is seven-years, $120 million and might include a 2017 option. I wonder how close any other bidders came to this price.
Is Zach McAllister a prospect worth holding on to?
Posted by: | CommentsAt The Hardball Times, Harry Pavlidis writes an article titled, “Pitching prospects who might be keepers.” With that title, it’s tough not to read. Harry examines minor league players using four criteria: strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate, and home runs per fly ball + line drive. Since those represent four important pitching skills, you might imagine that Harry’s analysis spits out the very best in minor league arms. Alas, this does not appear to be the case.
To get the most contextual look at each pitcher, Harry weighs each stat against the pitcher’s league average. This way he can compare someone pitching in AAA to someone pitching in A ball — or, just as important, comparing someone pitching in the International League to someone pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He puts everything on a scale of 100, like OPS+ and ERA+, so you can see how far each pitcher ranks above league average in each category.
Among the 29 names on Pavlidis’s list sits Zach McAllister, the 22-year-old sinkerballer who figures to start the season in AAA. Despite the label, however, McAllister didn’t induce many more groundballs than a league average Eastern League pitcher. That means more fly balls and line drives than other sinkerballers, but this is where McAllister registers well above league average. He keeps balls in the park on hits in the air, no small accomplishment. He also ranks well above league average in walks.
While McAllister does have some impressive numbers, his inclusion on this list does not necessarily mean he’ll find success in the big leagues. Of the 29 on Pavlidis’s list, 13 have seen major league action and none have overly impressed. Lenny DiNardo stands out. His walk rate ranks well above league average, but in the majors he walked way, way too many hitters. His just above average strikeout rate translated into well below league average in the majors, and even his home run to fly ball plus line drive ratio dipped.
Still, given McAllisters numbers, both in this analysis and in more general analyses, the Yanks could get use out of him in the back of the rotation. He’s not the kind of pitcher who will win a job during Spring Training — not with the Yankees, at least. But if the team faces an injury or two, he could certainly get his chance in the rotation. Perhaps his skills in throwing strikes and keeping fly balls in the park will translate into major league success. At this point, I think that’s a better gamble than trading him in for a major league spare part with much less potential future value.
Link Roundup: Former Yankees in the news
Posted by: | CommentsDamon a fit in Atlanta?
Want to read 1000 words on how and why Johnny Damon would be a great fit for the Braves’ lineup? Well, then point your browsers to this David O’Brien blog post and prepare for a lengthy analysis. O’Brien says Atlanta has around $7-$8 million per season for two years to offer to Damon, and since Scott Boras has yet to field a better offer, Damon just might accept.
Now, if that salary figure sounds familiar, that’s because it is reportedly what the Yankees were willing to pay Damon for at least 2010 and maybe 2011. Would Damon then accept a lesser salary with another team than he would with his former employers? Joe tackled just that question in his closing arguments, and it’s worth noting that some people are more comfortable taking lesser money from a new team than they are with taking a paycut to stick with their old one. In the end, Damon will produce no matter the salary, but he could have a better early-season outlook in Atlanta than with the Yankees.
If the Braves opt against pursuing Damon, I’m not sure where or for how much Damon ends up. The Braves — and of course the Yankees — are simply the two best and last real remaining options for Johnny. Unless the Cardinals lose out on Matt Holliday, Damon will have few choices for a player coming off a great year. He really is this year’s Bobby Abreu.
Yanks, 14 others ask about Wang
Yesterday, we learned that Chien-Ming Wang would throw off a mound in mid-to-late Feburary. Today, we hear of interest in the rehabbing right-hander. Alan Nero, Wang’s agent, told Andrew Marchand that 15 teams have inquired into the status of the former 19-game winner and erstwhile ace. The Yankees, but not the Mets, were among those teams, and I still would not be surprised if Wang returned to the Bronx on an incentive-laden deal this year.
Matsui: I want to play the outfield
Hideki Matsui‘s insistence that he will play some games in the outfield in Anaheim continues to amuse me. Last week, the World Series MVP returned home to Japan and held a press conference at which he reiterated his belief that he will see some time in left field in 2010. “I’d like to prove I can play defense at spring training,” Matsui said during a news conference. “It will be difficult to play defense every day like in the past, but I’d like to reach the point where I’m able to play defense once every few games.”
Matsui, never a great defender, last played the field on June 15, 2008 — coincidentally the same day Chien-Ming Wang suffered his career-derailing Lisfranc injury. Since then, he has undergone at least one knee surgery and a few procedures to drain fluids from his knees, but if the Angels want to risk, so be it.
The story behind Fred McGriff and Tom Emanski
How, you may ask, does Fred McGriff end up on a link dump of news concerning former Yankees? Well, New York drafted McGriff in the ninth round of the 1981 amateur draft, and then the team traded him with Dave Collins and Mike Morgan on December 9, 1982 to the Blue Jays for Tom Dodd and Dale Murray. It wasn’t a good trade. Anyway, while McGriff made a name for himself with the bat, he is in one of the longest running baseball video commercials of all time, and today, Tyler Kepner gets the story behind the Emanski endorsement. His teams did win back to back to back A.A.U. National Championships, after all.
Randy Johnson will announce his retirement tomorrow
The Big Unit spent two productive years in pinstripes, and his Hall of Fame career appears to have ended: Bob Nightengale says RJ will announce his retirement tomorrow morning. He went 34-19 with a 4.37 ERA in pinstripes, though he really made his mark with the Diamondbacks. When Arizona signed Johnson to a four year, $53M contract in 1999, they were rewarded with four Cy Youngs and a 2.52 FIP with 1,417 strikeouts in 1030 innings. Wow.
Can the Yankees avoid arbitration with Gaudin, Mitre?
Posted by: | CommentsToday begins the filing period for salary arbitration hearings, which means the start of a tedious process for players and teams. Once a player files, he and the team must exchange figures by January 19 in anticipation of a February hearing. For the next month plus, teams and players will negotiate for what each considers a fair salary. If they reach no such agreement they present cases in front of an arbiter, who will then choose either the team’s or the player’s proposed salary. In other words, once you get to a hearing there’s no longer a chance for compromise. It’s either one or the other.
Partly because of this all or nothing nature, most cases never go to a hearing. In fact, as Craig Calcaterra notes, 90 percent settle. This has left, since the inception of arbitration in 1974, just 487 hearings, or about 14 per season. It seems like that number has come down in recent years, too, perhaps because of the imbalance in decisions. Teams have won 57 percent of hearings, and while that’s not a huge margin, it does give a player an incentive to settle.
(But at least it’s not as bad as corporate-consumer arbitration, which heavily favors one side.)
At MLB.com Anthony Castrovince describes the history of arbitration and how it has evolved since its inception in the early 70s. Back then it was a way to better reward players for their contributions while still preventing them from becoming free agents. Over the years, players continued to push the limits higher, gaining better and better compensation in arbitration. A handful of cases in each decade stand out, but none quite like Ryan Howard’s $10 million in 2008. The next year, arbitration eligible players received average raises of 172 percent. While free agent salaries trend downward, arbitration salaries continue to rise.
Given the perils of facing an arbitration hearing, chances are the Yankees will settle with both of their arbitration cases, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre. Neither pitcher had a standout 2009, and the Yankees will likely use that to their advantage in negotiations. Mitre’s poor statistics almost force him to settle. Gaudin and his agent will likely concentrate on his numbers while with the Yankees (42 IP, 3.43 ERA), so maybe he has more of a case. But given Gaudin’s 2009 salary, $2 million, and his season-long performance, I’m not sure he can expect too hefty a raise. This could keep the two parties’ proposals close together, making it easier to strike a compromise.
Javy Vazquez: Unclutch?
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s a question that’s been asked since the Yankees reacquired Javy Vazquez right before the holidays. Was the second half of 2004 and his abysmal playoff showing the real Javy, or was it the product of bad mechanics or something along those lines? Jay at Fack Youk looked into the issue and determined that yeah, Javy generally does perform worse in higher leverage situations.
During his twelve year career, Vazquez has posted a .798 OPS against with a 4.51 FIP in hi-lev situations compared to .700 & 3.60 in lo-lev spots. American League pitchers posted a .750 OPS against with a 4.45 FIP in hi-lev spots last year, so Javy’s slightly below average in that regard. The flip side of the coin is that Vazquez is superb in lower leverage spots, as AL pitchers posted a .765 OPS against and a 4.56 FIP in those situations last year. Obviously you want pitchers that bear down and do well in big spots, but for a fourth starter, Vazquez is far more than qualified.
If you’re someone that believes in intangibles and stuff (they certainly exist, though I don’t think they’re nearly as important or have as much of an impact as many believe), then Javy has two things going for him this year: a) it’s a contract year and he’s never once been on the free agent market, and b) dude’s got a chip on his shoulder, he’s going to be out to prove that what we saw in 2004 was not the real Javy. I’m betting contract year Javy Vazquez is going to be a damn good pitcher.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
