2010 Draft: Baseball America’s Early Projection
ByAs part of their Early Draft Preview, Baseball America posted the first of what will be many projected first rounds today (subs. req’d). They have Las Vegas wunderkind Bryce Harper going first overall, and the Yanks taking Southern California high school outfielder Austin Wilson 32nd overall. They say that “he might have the best body in the draft,” but as a Stanford commit, he’s going to be a very tough sign. Keith Law sheds some more light on Wilson at ESPN’s MLB Draft Blog (sorry, another subs. req’d), saying that he’s a “below-average runner and showed only an average arm with below-average accuracy, so he’s primarily a bat who should profile in an outfield corner.”
Projections this early do nothing more than provide entertainment value. Trying to slot players with teams this far in advance is practically impossible, so don’t get to attached to Wilson. Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that BA has Rice shortstop Rick Hague going 16th overall. Why do you care? Because three years ago I used my fourth round pick (#154 overall) to take Hague in John Sickels’ mock draft. I’m not normally one to toot my own horn, but toot toot.
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My online subscription to BaseballAmerica expired last week. I’m on the verge of re-subscribing, but perhaps someone could tell me if I should rather sign up with ESPN insider. Which team provides better draft coverage? Baseballamerica did have the Yankees selecting Heathcott in its last mock draft, and G. Cole the yer before, so BA seems to have a good sense of how Oppenheimer drafts.
BA or espn?
You can get ESPN insider really cheap if you subscribe to the magazine. The magazine is terrible, you can just throw it out, but it’s very cheap and comes with automatic access to the insider.
How does the automatic access work? Do you get some sort of code with your first magazine or something?
Yes.
Oh yeah. Forgot to add: Austin Wilson sounds like Mike Stanton, at least in the physical measurements + light tower power description.
There goes Mike being a baseball prospect elitist….Ah I cant be serious about that. I would probably die if he did not post articles about prospects.
I actually just watched an Austin Wilson video like 15 minutes ago. He does have a very very projectable body and he went to the same high school as Nik Turley.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkdtex_EkaM
That’s him blasting a HR to left center in Wrigley.
That was a shot for sure. One guy I would love to get is Josh Sale, another HS outfielder.
He won’t drop that far.
Right before he hits the ball, Steve Phillips calls him ” a good looking kid”.
Nah, too easy.
Just wondering, does anyone know where Pomeranz went?
If by ‘went’ you mean what pick he was drafted with… I don’t have an Insider or Baseball America subscription, but most early mocks have him around 10 to 15.
“I’m not normally one to toot my own horn, but toot toot.”
Lol. That’s the kind of stuff we were talking about with Carig on Twitter. I dont like to brag…. Not to be mean…..etc
just saw bryce harper on youtube he is the next mantle
can’t wait till he’s a free agent harper catching and montero at 1st/DH
Keep it in your pants.
Hahahaha. You’re talking like a .1% chance of something happening in 10 yrs.
Harper should challenge the legality of the draft (why should a similarly situated kid in the DR or Venezuela have a free market to sell their services while Harper is stuck being a National or nothing). I betcha Boras would take on that fight pro bono.
No youbetcha. Not happening. As far as I know, Harper’s situation wouldn’t set any precedent regarding IFA.
Just wondering but who has a higher ceiling: Heathcott or Austin Wilson?
Gotta be Slade. CF with a crazy bat >>>> Below average LF/RF with a crazier bat.
Yup.
Austin Wilson, huh? Oh. That’s right. The other Austin was traded so another one has to be brought in.
Where is Greg Golson from? Yep. Austin, Texas.
Mind as well keep Austin Romine then if there are no Austin catchers in this draft.
There are a ton of Jesus’ out there, i’m sure trading our Jesus won’t hurt… oh wait!
Can’t run, can’t throw, plays bat – OF corner. I think those days are gone. Now, finally the focus is on defense. A new concept – an OF should be able to run and catch the ball, then throw it.
While defense is certainly a big factor, if the guy has a Stanton-like bat, his defense being fringe-average at best isn’t really a huge deal. You always take the bat over the glove.
+1
Defense isn’t make/break when the offense is that big.
Does the name Poterson ring a bell?
No, frankly.
Does the name Montero ring a bell?
Why would you always take the bat over the glove? That’s one of the truisms that should be addressed. Witness the success of Tampa and Seattle.
which would you rather have?
A guy who can hit the shit out of the ball but ho plays below average defense
or a guy who is below average with the bat but is realllly good defensively
You take the bat over the glove because the bat is far more valuable.
There is an article in the edition of sports illustrated from just before the 09′ season with CC on the cover. In the article it talks about how defensive metrics are the new big thing and how the glove is underrated-like you said.
BUT-and here’s the kicker-its new projections on the value of defense placed it at half the value of offense…and this was considered hiher than ever previously assumed.
The bat is definitely much, much more valuable than the glove.
You see I’m more from the school of defense.
First the numbers count the same. Considering how bad the odds are of a kid making it, you want a kid with all the tools. If the kid has the hand eye coordination and fast twitch muscles, hitting is a skill. You can’t teach speed or arm strength.
Totally disagree. Hitting is not a skill. If it was, tons of kids would be in the majors, at least as DH’s.
BTW-What do you mean by the numbers count the same? Sure a run saved is the same as a run scored, but we’re saying that a great offensive player will end up helping more runs score than a great defensive player will help not score.
No way, always take the bat. You can either can hit, or you can’t. The amount of improvement a player can make through coaching and repetition is pretty small compared to defense.
A player can make a TON of improvement on defense by coaching, etc. Chase Utley was a total butcher in the middle infield. He had to move to third, and to first for a while. He became a Gold Glover because he worked his ass off.
Take the bat. ALWAYS take the bat.
I can go just as far in offense.. George Brett, Jason Werth and so on. Utley had the quick feet. Otherwise he couldn’t improve. Countless players have developed their hitting. But we’re talking OF. I really don’t want to rehash Adam Dunn.
If the Yankees’ first round pick of the 2010 draft turns into the next Adam Dunn, I’d be fucking pumped.
And I’d be cursing the stars. I’d be all in favor of Crawford. I like watching good baseball. Watching Damon splat the wall six feet away from the ball impact last year was pitiful. I don’t care how much you cheer for the laundry, that was yech.
If you fail to see the incredible value players like Dunn and Damon give, you’re just oblivious.
Obviously I’d want a five tool player the most, but if I had to choose between sacrificing hitting or defense, you sacrifice defense ten times out of ten.
If the Yankees 2010 first round draft pick turns into the next Carl Crawford, I’ll flip my shit, too. That’d be incredible.
A team of terrible defenders who can hit well like say the 2006 Yankees will probably be better than a team like the 2009 Mariners.
Defense is very important but the bat is more important.
Talent levels between the 06 Yankees and 09 Mariners is night and day. Not a valid example. Defense is still not valued as in extra innings by pitchers, which impacts the BP and so on. It’s similar to patient hitters, hard to quantify.
What do you mean, you can quantify patient hitters by OBP.
Quantifying patient hitters is actually pretty easy…OBP, BB%, BB/K, Swing%/0-Swing, P/PA…
You see – nowhere is there a stat as in pitches spoiled. You can’t stat situations. Swisher is a stat darling, Runners in scoring position – not so much. A man on third one out, I consider a working a walk, a poor result. Pitcher and hitter is a challenge scored outs and hits. A walk is positive neutral. Sort of condom love. Is it me or the tickler?
If you consider a walk a poor result with a man on third and one out, you’re just wrong. There’s no debate to be had there.
You sound like Moses on Mt Sinai. You see it’s about situations. It’s run differential not Holy Writ. If that’s the case why do teams walk players to set up the DP. Tie game in the ninth with that situation, of course you don’t work the walk .
How often does intentionally walking someone work? The answer: not nearly as often as you think.
Tie game in the ninth is a situation that comes up less than 11% of the time. The other 89% count just as much.
They’re only walking players to set up the double play because they don’t think they could get the player out otherwise, or a really shitty hitter is up behind them, or a hitter who frequently grounds into DP’s.
This really isn’t an arguement, it’s what statistics say. And remember, statistics are just events reduced to numbers.
I’m done with this arguement. Believe what you want.
Yeah the 06 Yankees were immensely more talented with the bat than the 09 Mariners were.
On the other hand, the 09 Mariners were immensely more talented with the glove than the 06 Yankees.
You stop it, you!
I’ve heard Kevin Gausman’s name attached to the Yankees on a couple of sites. Where did he go in the BA mock?
The silliness of projecting this far ahead aside, this doesn’t really seem like the kind of pick Damon Oppenheimer would go for. If he’s going to pick a high-school position player, it’ll probably be someone with a more diverse set of tools than Wilson, whose value comes almost exclusively from power.
The bat might just be that good, but I understand where you are coming from.
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