Feb
20

Open Thread: An Ace In Action

By

CC Sabathia threw his first bullpen of the 2010 campaign today, tossing 35 pitches off one of the Tampa mounds to Jorge Posada. After a career high 266.1 IP last season, Sabathia took a grand total of three weeks off this winter before he started throwing again. “I can’t take too much time off or my arm just gets in a funk,” said CC, who was playing catch three times a week by early December. Dude is just a horse, but it good to see the Yanks scale back a bit and take it easy on the big guy.

Meanwhile, Joe Girardi indicated that Sabathia is likely to be followed in the rotation by A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, and Javy Vazquez, in that order. Obviously, this is completely unsurprising. Looking at the schedule, I’m guessing the rotation will shake out like this during the first few weeks of the season:

April 4th: Sabathia
April 5th: OFF
April 6th: Burnett
April 7th: Pettitte
April 8th: OFF
April 9th: Vazquez
April 10th: Sabathia
April 11th: Burnett
April 12th: OFF
April 13th: Pettitte (home opener)
April 14th: Vazquez
April 15th: Sabathia
April 16th: Burnett
April 17th: 5th Starter

The Yanks can skip the fifth starter’s spot the first two times through the rotation without starting anyone on short rest of anything like that. Pettitte would get the nod for the home opener, something he’s more than qualified for. The first two weeks of the season were laid out pretty neatly this year, thankfully.

Anyway, here’s your open thread for the evening. The Knicks are playing, plus there’s the Olympics, so have at it.

Photo Credit: Bryan Hoch, MLB.com

Categories : Open Thread

105 Comments»

  1. bexarama says:

    Am I the only one that isn’t freaking out about how ridiculous David Wright saying the Mets were “the team to beat” in the NL East was? Yeah, I know, they’re the Mets. But the 2006 Mets won 96 games and beat second place in the division by 12 games, and Jimmy Rollins claimed Philly was the team to beat in 2007 spring training. I don’t expect the Mets to win the division, but I didn’t think Philly would win it in 2007 either (though Philly going into 2007 was IMO in a better place than the Mets going into 2010).

    Johan Santana saying he was the best pitcher in the NL East seemed pretty much like a shot at Halladay though, unless he was specifically asked “Who do you think is the best pitcher in the NL East?” in which case it’s understandable because, I mean, what was the guy supposed to say, “It’s Halladay, I’m not that great”?

  2. Update: Waiting still sucks.

    Off topic, apparently the fact that I do crosswords in pen is badass.

  3. Kevin G. says:

    Isn’t today RAB’s birthday?

  4. Bxbomber says:

    CC is a horse, but even the top thoroughbreds need some rest. He is the wrong side of 30 and we do have LOTS of money invested in him the next few years. It’s good we’re taking it easy on him a little.

  5. Salty Buggah says:

    Heh, check out the Melkman’s beard:

    http://tweetphoto.com/11969594

  6. Drew says:

    Mike you watching any of this college baseball on MLB Network? Anyone I should look out for?

  7. Ed says:

    Now that I see how the schedule plays out the first few times through the rotation, I could actually see both Hughes & Joba start the season in AAA. Give them each 2 starts in AAA to let them stay in shape. Hopefully they’ll dominate and get a nice confidence boost. Maybe even use it to extended the 5th starter battle a little bit longer by making them fight in AAA over who gets the promotion.

    Hughes has an option that they basically can’t use after April, and Joba has multiple that can’t get used after August, so there’s no reason to be conservative in that aspect.

    It also lets the team get a little more time to sort out the bullpen if desired, as they get two more spots for the first two weeks. I forget which season it was, but within the past few years I remember the team doing something like that. I think they put someone on the DL in spring training then activated him a week into the season in time for his first start.

  8. I feel like curling’s about to go mainstream, or something…

  9. Drew says:

    Wow, Scotty B got Johnny D 8 mil with no deferred money. Not bad.

  10. JM says:

    My 2010 prediction: Mariano Rivera gets first career homerun off of…
    Francisco Rodriguez.

  11. MASN: Brian Cashman: The Orioles are a sleeping giant

    http://masnsports.com/2010/02/.....s-are.html

    Sleeping Giant may be a bit much (unless he means San Francisco) but I think it’s fair to say there are no easy games in the AL East this year. The O’s will score, and even Toronto will pitch if they get healthy.

  12. Reggie C. says:

    T-MAC!

    Still some life in those old legs yet!

    • he is getting me to watch a knicks game on tv for the first time in probably 4+ yrs

      • Mike Pop says:

        I hope he plays well enough to warrant a one-two year deal offer from the Knicks for next year. Not a large contract but a good paying one.

        Hopefully, him never being out of the first round will make him want to join the 1 or 2 great free agents the Knicks are bound to bring to NY in the next couple years.

        (this coming from a Nets fan)

  13. Kiersten says:

    Finally got my Yankee tattoo today.

    http://i46.tinypic.com/sx2kpu.jpg

    I am in love.

  14. Jorge Posada — .263/.355/.445 VORP: 16.7 WARP: 1.6
    The key stat here for Posada is the way PECOTA pegs him as a prime candidate for a collapse. He’ll turn 39 in mid-August, and his collapse rate is an alarming 37 percent. Comfortingly, though, his attrition rate is nearly the same. We’ll probably see something of a decline from Posada, but hopefully, it’s closer to an attrition dip than an all-out collapse. The Yanks are penciling him in for 120 games behind the plate. That might be optimistic, but BP is high on Francisco Cervelli’s defense as a caddy to Jorge.

    Ben got me thinking today. If Jorge’s still OPSing .800 at age 39, you’re going to live with his defensive deficiencies. But if his bat drops off significantly from there, and let’s say Cervelli’s OPS is around .700, you get to a point somewhere in which you value Cervelli’s glove more than Jorge’s bat. I’m just not sure where it is.

    If they were BOTH at .700, then it’s an easy call. Cervelli catches every day unless a pitcher (Andy) prefers Posada. But let’s say Jorge’s around .730-.750, it’s July and it’s obvious to everyone that it’s not just a slump. Do you pull the trigger? I guess the real question is how much value to you put on a Catcher’s glove?

    • Jose says:

      I wish there were more metrics for catchers.

      To answer your question, if both Posada and Cervelli had the same OPS, they would still start Posada.

      • whozat says:

        They would. The question is what SHOULD they do.

        • Don’t be so sure. The manager has already sat Jorge in the playoffs and was a defense-first catcher himself.

        • Jose says:

          Would I bench one of the greatest Yankee catchers for a kid whose benefit based solely on defense is immeasurable using advanced stats? Absolutely not.

          • The Yanks aren’t nostalgic. If the were, Matsui and Damon would be on the team.

            • Jose says:

              That is completely different from this situation. Posada is making a metric shit ton compared to that of Cervelli. The Yankees have financial reasons alone not to let him ride the bench.

              • Sorry, but it’s not like he’s a LF you can stick out there and hope nobody hits the ball his way. Were talking about a Catcher, a position involved in every defensive play. You can’t live with a bad defensive catcher who can’t hit, either. The pitchers wouldn’t stand for it. Jorge himself said just yesterday “I want to play everyday as long as I’m not hurting the team.” If he can’t block AJ’s curveball in the dirt, he’s hurting the team. No matter how much he makes.

              • Why? He makes the same amount of money whether he plays or not. In the highly unlikely event that Cervelli and Posada are putting up similar offensive numbers, Cervelli’s defense might earn him the job. He’s miles better as a catcher than Jorge as this point in their respective careers.

                It’s an interesting question, but I highly doubt it will happen.

      • Yeah, it’s the toughest position to quantify.

        But CC raved about Cervelli, and the Yanks will cater to him with the money/years they have committed. AJ’s issues are well known, Andy loves Jorge and doesn’t have the type of blazing stuff that would give him problems. With Joba, they will probably go with whichever combo works better. Vasquez, I have no idea.

        Bats being equal or close, I think Cervelli catches a lot.

        • Jose says:

          I think the organization sees him as nothing more than a backup. I just can’t imagine Cervelli catching a lot unless Posada really falls off the offensive cliff.

          • whozat says:

            Yes. And if his bat was equal to Cervelli’s, which is one of the assumptions that’s being made here, that would mean he had fallen off the offensive cliff.

            • Jose says:

              Let me rephrase. My consideration of Posada really falling off a cliff is him having a lower OPS than Cervelli. If that happens, only then do I believe they would consider benching Posada.

          • Yeah, that’s the question. Jorge with a .725 OPS in July would represent a huge drop off from his career .859 OPS.

    • Mike Pop says:

      Nostra, didn’t you predict a Jorge Posada decline a few months ago at TYU?

      • Sort of, I asked the question if he’s poised to decline based on his walk and SO rates, both of which went in the wrong direction last year. It’s not like I was the only one, many of the Sabermetric sites asked similar questions. I think Bill James had him as one of his top regression candidates for 2010.

  15. Mike Pop says:

    Now they got Justin Tuck trying to recruit LeBron.

  16. Hey Mike. As a rabid Yankee/Longhorn fan, please give me some hope that Workman could fall to 32 in the draft. Short of an injury what would need to happen.

  17. Ivan says:

    I would luv to have Westbrook on the Knicks.

  18. Steven says:

    That Thunder/sonics vs. knicks game was really really good. I haven’t seen basketball like that in a while in the nba

    • Mike Pop says:

      Kevin Durant, dude is only 21 and is one of the best in the game. Can’t wait to see what he has in store for his career.

  19. bexarama says:

    Have there been really annoying ads on Baseball Reference for the past week or so for anyone else?

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