The initial over/under American League
ByWho’s smarter: baseball projection systems such as PECOTA and CHONE or good old fashioned Las Vegas sports books? It’s an interesting question to ponder in an age in which statistical analysis has taken center stage in the game, and the two options are one side of the same coin. Out of Las Vegas’ efforts to predict, via smart wagers, sports outcomes arose statistical analysis and more advanced projection systems.
I pose this question today because a few of the bigger sports books have released their initial over/under lines for the 2010 baseball season. Vegas Watch has the full league table, and I’ve broken down the American League by division. The Yankees, as you’ll see, win the over/under AL East but only by a hair.
AL East
Yankees – 94.5
Boston – 94
Tampa Bay – 89.5
Baltimore – 72.5
Toronto – 71
AL Central
Chicago – 82
Minnesota – 82
Detroit – 81
Cleveland – 73
Kansas City – 71
AL West
LAnaheim – 84
Seattle – 83
Texas – 83
Oakland – 78
In perusing this table late last night, I was struck by how few of these win totals I would bet on right now. When a team’s over/under lines up with the bettor’s estimated wins for that team, it’s a bad bet. Would you take the “over” on the Yanks and hope for a 95+ win season amidst a very competitive AL East? The initial line on the Yanks last year was 97.5, and I doubt many people took the “over” in February, March or even April.
I’m further intrigued by the relatively weak AL Central and West divisions. At first glance, we wouldn’t assume that two division winners would be pegged at win totals in the low 80s. After all, the Angels won 97 games last year, and even the Twins topped their 2010 line by four victories through 162 games. In fact, the AL hasn’t sent two sub-90 win teams to the playoffs since 1998 when both the Indians and Rangers failed to top 89 victories. Yet, of the teams pegged to compete for those division titles, I would place a bet only the Rangers, and then, I’d be inclined to take the over. Texas should have a team better than 83 wins, especially in a division as weak as the West.
Right now, though, these lines are published to encourage bets, and they don’t represent the true Vegas predictions. For every $1000 placed, the lines will move half a point. If one team’s win total is grossly under-predicted, the line will quickly move upward to compensate as bettors take the over, and that’s where the crowd-vs.-computer debate takes over. As the lines shift and settle over the next few weeks, can early season oddsmakers and those willing to place bets beat the projection systems? The results should look fairly congruous by year’s end.
In my heart, I want to take the over on the Yankees, and David Pinto wants the under on Boston due to the team’s injury risk. But odds are good the AL East will be a dogfight. First team to 96 wins takes the crown.
Here’s your obligatory disclaimer: These lines and my thoughts are for entertainment purposes only. Don’t bet on baseball with my advice in mind, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
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Bet the over on Minnesota. Angels.
Completely agree on the Twins, they have won less than 82 games once in the last 9 years, and possibly have their best team of that span.
Meh. I think the Twins need a legit return-to-ace-form from Francisco Liriano to muster a better than 82 win season.
Well they won 87 last year and their team got better.
They won 87 last year with Liriano going 5-13. Mauer missed a month and Morneau also missed significant time. They’ve upgraded their offense as well. While they don’t have a truce ace, they don’t have any major weaknesses in their rotation, and always have a strong pen. That and I’m pretty bullish on Liriano (I heard he was in the best shape of his career!).
I wonder how Thome will fit into their plans.
The Twins are always over .500.
Div is terrible and the team got a lil better.
Looks like easy $
I bet we’ll see that line move quickly then. Get in on it now before the betting sticks it at 86/87.
Here’s your obligatory disclaimer: These lines and my thoughts are for entertainment purposes only. Don’t bet on baseball with my advice in mind
That’s a reason for that disclaimer if you think hard enough about it.
That was an odd signing, I’m guessing he’s somewhat DH insurance in case Kubel gets hurt, but I don’t see a huge role otherwise, unless they plan on playing Kubel in the OF, which is a bad idea IMHO. They have a decent pitching staff that doesn’t K many people, they ought to throw the best defensive team out there that they can.
“unless they plan on playing Kubel in the OF, which is a bad idea”
Kubel does suck in LF, but Young sucks too (-16.4 UZR in 151 games in 2008, -16.4 in 98 games last year). So they have a crappy LF either way, so it’s just about match ups. Kubel cant hit LHP, Young hits LHP.
Damn you and your stats!
Ha, to be fair Kubel has never really had consistant time in LF so his true UZR could be like -30 so in that scenario he shouldnt see LF.
v RHP: Kubel (LF), Thome (DH)
v LHP: Young (LF), Thome (DH)
I’m taking the under on Minnesota. They haven’t had a winning record on the road since 2006 and they’ve made up for it by dominating at home. I think moving away from the Metrodome will cost them their massive homefield advantage
I was discussing this yesterday with my brother, but man it sucks to be the Rays. They are one of the top 5 teams in baseball, and unless the Yankees or Sox suffer major injury or injuries, the Rays will likely be on the outside looking in, and also plan on cutting payroll next year. I know they have a great farm system, but this may be the best team they’ve ever had, and it might not be good enough to make the playoffs.
I’d take the over on Kansas City, based on new staff ace Kyle Farnsworth’s league leading 22 wins.
The Central and West are almost pick em, I’d say every team but KC has an outside chance at winning their division, and Cleveland is the only stretch there. What a bunch of flawed teams.
They only plan on cutting payroll because they have large contracts (Pena, Crawford, Burrell) coming off the books and plenty of minor league studs to replace them. It isn’t going to be like the Marlins cut payroll, more like how we cut payroll after 2008, minus signing CC, AJ, and Big Tex.
They hope that those guys can replace Pena and Crawford, but it’s no sure thing, and instead of using that money elsewhere, to shore up other parts of the team, they’ll likely pocket it.
Pena will be hard to replace, but they have Desmond Jennings waiting to replace Crawford. Same skill set, years younger and cheaper.
Desmond Jennings may be the next Crawford (he may even be better). However, I doubt that next year he is equal to Crawford’s production. It may take 3-4 years before he is at Crawford’s level, so replacing Crawford with Jennings will likely weaken the team for at least a few years.
AL East:
Yankees: Over
Red Sox: Push
Rays: Under
Orioles: Over
Jays: Push
Central:
White Sox: Over
Twins: Over
Tigers: Push
Indians: Over
Royals: Under
West:
Angels: Over
Mariners: Over
Rangers: Push
A’s: Under
Here are my picks:
AL East:
Yankees: Over
Red Sox: Push
Rays: Under
Orioles: Over
Jays: Push
Central:
White Sox: Over
Twins: Over
Tigers: Under
Indians: Over
Royals: Under
West:
Angels: Over
Mariners: Under
Rangers: Over
A’s: Push
Wild Card team winning 10-12 more games than 2 other division leaders? Ugly
Even worse the 3rd place Rays with an expected 5.5 wins over the other division winners.
I don’t think they’ll ever do anything about this.
Neither do I and I don’t think they should move around the division just because 1 division is very strong at the present. However, I am just stating it sucks for people in the AL East that the 3rd place team is expected by Vegas to be better than all the AL Central and AL West teams.
They won’t if its just one year. But say one of NY/BOS/TB get left out of the playoffs for multiple years in a row while having better records than the other division, then something will change.
I still doubt it. But I don’t think it’ll be the Rays in a few years that’ll be the 3rd team, I think the Orioles will be the bigger pain over the next 5-10 years (starting in 2011 or 2012).
100% agreed on the Orioles. I have a feeling they may pass the Rays sooner rather than later. They finished 20 games behind the Rays in ’09; I wouldn’t be surprised if it were more like 6 or 8 games in ’10.
You definitely have to take the over on the Orioles.
plus the orioles have something the rays do not. the ability to spend. with their young talent and a bigger budget than tampa they could do some serious damage filling in around their young talented core. if bmore thinks they are on the verge of winning they would open the pocketbooks
This. As long as Angelos doesn’t screw it up, he can supplement his young talent with higher priced veterans.
Favorite bets for me here are the under on Tampa Bay, and over on the Angels.
A wise guy trick is to wait until the week after the 1st round of the NCAA tourney and take the under any team that had a significant upward shift. Billions of tourist dollars flood Vegas during the opening round of the NCAA tourney. Casual bettors will throw $20, $50, $100, etc. on their favorite MLB team, which artifically inflates the o/u lines. If you look at the lines in mid-March, you’ll see about 85% of the money going to the overs and 15% going to the unders. The sportsbooks will shift the o/u accordingly, thus creating a pseudo discount. So, if the o/u for a particular team jumps from 81 wins to 84 wins, you should take the under regardless of how you feel about that team. Bet the o/u based on the value you are getting, not your personal prediction of how the team will perform.
Where’s your obligatory disclaimer?
I keed, I keed.
while your point stands, 3 wins shift is astronomical
ive monitored these lines the past few years and the most you can expect a total to move is 2 and thats only a couple teams throughout MLB
but your point is still valid… value is value
Yankees: over
Sox: over
Rays: over
Orioles: under
Jays: under
White Sox: over
Twins: under
Tigers: over
Indians: under
Royals: under
Angels: under
Mariners: over
Rangers: over
Athletics: under
Yankees – 94.5 – Over
Boston – 94 – Over
Tampa Bay – 89.5 Under
Baltimore – 72.5 – Under
Toronto – 71 – Under
AL Central
Chicago – 82 – Over
Minnesota – 82 – Over
Detroit – 81 – Over
Cleveland – 73 Under
Kansas City – 71 – Under
AL West
LAnaheim – 84 Over
Seattle – 83 Over
Texas – 83 – Over
Oakland – 78 – Over
i cant wait to bet the under on the houston astros no matter what the line is
it would have to be in the 50s for me not to… theyre awful
Am i the only one that wants to jump on the Mariners bandwagon? Top two starters are aces, combined with good defensive pickups offseason. Defense and pitching wins games, i think mariners will easily be better than an 83 and 79 team.
Another darkhorse is the nationals, but this is the AL over/under thread so that’ll be for another day.
The Mariners bandwagon is already tipping over it’s so full. With the 2 aces they’ll be tough, but their 3-5 spots in the rotation are shaky. If they can get league average pitching out of them, they’ll be very strong, but that’s a big if.
The Mariners also were outscored by about 150 runs last year and are losing excellent production from Branyan and Washburn.
The Mariners were SO lucky last year. They actually have more like 20 games to make up against the Angels.
I’m not ready to anoint them yet.
/not off the wagon – never climbed on
i don’t think i even know who their 3-5 starters are now that washburn is gone, mrorow is gone (even though he was in the bp) and they put jabakakauskakus in the pen
snell, fister, and rowland-smith. tell me again why this team wont sign washburn or looper?
snell, fister, and rowland-smith
Because they have a Chip Caray all-star on the staff.
AL East
Yankees – 94.5
Boston – 94
Why? I never understand this. The Yankees and Red Sox have equally stellar starting pitching rotations. The Red Sox have better defense…but not that much better. The Yankees bullpen is much better than the Red Sox and the Yankees offense eclipses the Sox.
So why are some ‘projections’ saying the Red Sox will win the AL East…and others saying they’re just a hair behind? They had a .257/.340/.414 (.753) on the Road last year…and they lost their best offensive player. In comparison, the 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates hit the following at Home: .270/.334/.420 (.755). Strikingly similar.
I’m not denying that the Red Sox will be a very good team…but I’m just confused as to where some are getting that they are just a tack below the Yankees or in some cases BETTER than them.
I generally agree with your comparisons. But most “experts” feel the Sox have a better pen than the Yanks and I think the Sox offense is probably not as bad as your suggesting. The Sox will be in the top 5 in runs.
and I think the Sox offense is probably not as bad as your suggesting. The Sox will be in the top 5 in runs.
Oh I agree with this. They rake at Fenway…always do. I just still think the Yankees offense is way better.
Again, not everything needs to be taken as a slight towards the Yankees. This is merely a line created by Vegas to entice gamblers to wager one way or the other. This “projection” could be altered extremely easily and quickly, depending on the betters’ trends. By the start of the season, the Yanks over/under might be 95 while the Sox’s is 92.5. It’s really not anything to get worked up about. People need to stop playing the “Yanks are being disrespected” card, especially over ridiculous matters like total win over/unders and fantasy rankings.
It wasn’t just about the over/under and vegas odds. I also included other projections but didn’t name them specifically. CHONE and PECOTA for example. And I’m not playing the “Yankees are being disrespected” card at all. I’m simply saying that the Yankees are even BETTER than last year…and they dominated lives in 2009…the Red Sox got slightly better. The gap in between them, however, should be larger than these ‘projections’ are making them seem IMO
“And I’m not playing the “Yankees are being disrespected” card at all. I’m simply saying that the Yankees are even BETTER than last year…and they dominated lives in 2009…the Red Sox got slightly better. The gap in between them, however, should be larger than these ‘projections’ are making them seem IMO”
Don’t really see how you’re not playing the disrespected card. You are saying that various projections are not giving the Yankees enough credit. How else should that be construed?
I’m actually perfectly fine with the projections with the Yankees. I don’t recall ever saying otherwise. What I have a problem with is they are giving the Red Sox too much credit. There’s a difference.
I guess. I just don’t understand why that’s such a big deal to people though, especially Yankee fans. Who cares what the Red Sox projections are?
I live on the border of Massachusetts and all of my friends are Red Sox fans…and all I ever hear is over exaggerated stories about how incredible their team is year in and year out. It’s enough to drive any ordinary man – insane.
As Ben alluded to, these lines are set in a way so that people will bet on both sides. In a perfect world, Vegas wants an equal amount of bets on the Yanks over and under. So these lines arent really what they think each team will win.
That being said, the Yanks are winning high 90′s this year.
i firmly believe the vegas oddsmakers use computers and statistical analysis to make these lines. i think they probably take all the projection systems, tweak it slightly based on a few human observations, average them all, and run a simulation about 500,000 times…. similar to what SG at replacement level does
as smart as those dudes are, they have to use math in stuff like this… as in, i dont think theyre just sitting and pondering and coming up with arbitrary numbers based on how they feel about the team
Then they knock off a few wins to encourage opening bets. If they sit the Yanks’ over/under at 96, no one would put money the team at all.
I guess they’d do a little more tweaking with the Yankees and Red Sox due to the rabid fanbases and the weatlh of those fanbases. While it may not bring in your average gambler, it can bring in fans (or haters) of the big market teams with wealthy fanbases. They want that Northeast money and they get it.
Joe Magrane last night said something like “the Anaheim Angels will win their normal 95 games as they always do”. I almost came down with a case of Kuru.
sadly, that probably represents 95% of the general public’s thoughts as well
i guarantee you vegas gets a TON of action on the angels over simply “because theyre the angels and they always have good seasons”
yeah. im not too big on the angels this year..
at least he didn’t call them the “California Angels”
Don’t bet on baseball with my advice in mind, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please contact the National Council on Problem Gambling.
i laughed
It looks like it is going to be a good year for baseball, alot of close races for almost every division.
[...] a certain sense, Rosenthal’s plan complements our look at the over/under lines. The AL clearly has something of a competitive balance problem. Early season indicators put the [...]
I agree the Rangers should win more than 83 games. The offense will be better this year and if the pitching can at least match last years’ output, they could win the division.
So I can laugh at myself in however many months:
Yankees over
Boston push
Tampa Bay under
Baltimore over
Toronto push
Chicago push
Minnesota over
Detroit over
Cleveland push
Kansas City under
Anaheim over
Seattle push
Texas over
Oakland push
All I gotta say is I got long the Yankees to repeat as WS champs at 3.5 to 1. I think I am not the only one who made this decision, as the odds have since shrunk to 2.75 to 1, which is IMHO far closer to correct (I’d put the true odds around 2.5 to 1)
Yay market pricing mechanisms
sometimes, gambling problem is very very difficult to solve.~;”