Upon further consideration, PECOTA picks Yanks to win the East
ByAnd the PECOTA saga continues. Last week the initial forecasts hit the internet, and they had the Yankees finishing third and out of the playoffs. These are, of course, projections and not predictions, and considering the three wins that separated the Yankees from first place, it was really a virtual toss-up. Then, later in the week, after flaws emerged in the original formula, Baseball Prospectus updated them, this time putting the Yankees and Red Sox in a tie atop the division, with the Rays finishing a game back. Again, virtually no difference among them.
Once again, BP has tinkered with the formula, trying to make it as accurate as possible. Apparently, accuracy is good for the Yankees. As the depth chart stands now, the Yankees sit atop the AL East with 94 wins, with the Sox in second at 92 and the Rays in third at 90. Just like before, this still puts the teams on relatively even ground. It’s just nice to see the Yankees on top.
It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.
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836 runs scored seems a bit on the low side.
http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....ent-765386
Look at LF.
Awesome.
Too bad TEH STAT ZOMBIEZ won’t know anything until they pick up a bat. Morons at Baseball Prospectus don’t know nothin! Losers
/that one girl’d
Who cares if I’m a moron, I’M HOT, DAMNIT!!!
Do the 836 runs lead the league?
yea–Texas is in second with 826, Boston at 806 and no one else in the Majors above 800.
Cool, thanks.
Not to sound too skeptical, but the last time 3 or fewer teams scored more than 800 runs was in 1995 (2 teams) – and that was a short season because of the lock out!
I’m glad they’re tinkering with the formulas to make sure they’re as accurate as possible, but why put out three separate projections? Why not have tweaked the formulas and simply put out the one they felt was most accurate? Randy Winn’s addition did not for 80 runs; the information they had was there the whole time. They look foolish at this point.
They’ve been fairly transparent with the process if you read the Unfiltered posts. When coding these things, it’s really easy to double enter info, and that’s pretty much what happened. David Pease summarized some issues earlier today.
Right. I’m not trying to be critical, but I think it would have been more prudent to have done the testing a few times, crossed the Ts and dotted Is, and then published it. I don’t think there’s an agenda or they’re caving to the whims of the fan; it’s data in a complex model. Take some time to look through it, don’t just press ‘enter’ three times.
Colonel Sandurz: PREPARE TO FAST-FORWARD!
Corporal: Preparing to fast-forward.
Colonel Sandurz: FAST FORWARD!
Corporal: Fast-forwarding, sir.
Bullshit! Ludicrous speed! GO!
http://media.ebaumsworld.com/p...../plaid.JPG (safe)
We ain’t found shit!
Why wouldnt you want to be critical? Why post that if you arent? You may as well post a lame movie quote
Randy Winn’s addition did not for 80 runs;
OR DID IT??!?!
They acknowledged an error up front. They weren’t happy about it, but errors do happen. Instead of pulling it down, they basically said the projections were in “beta” and would be updated a few times in the coming week. If they knew there was an error originally I’m sure they would have held back on the post, but once it was up, they’ve let us experience the updates as they happen. I have no issue with that. I would like to know, however, when they think their projections are fully baked.
This is great: another week or week or so of projections and we can just skip the season and go directly to the play-offs!
It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.
You know what’s funny?
Two words: RANDY. WINN.
Randy Winn: Defensive god. Even his name is a win. (Rimshot!)
FACT: Even with a 0.0 WAR, Randy Winn is a one-win player. FACT.
Randy Winn: My new favorite player.
He just won us the AL East. Go ahead, look it up. It’s right there.
He’s my favorite for a good reason, after all.
Two more words: CANCELING. TICKETS.
/braunx teechur’d
Two more words:
CANCELINGCANCELLING [sic]. TICKETS./braunx teechur’d
——————
Fixed.
take that bo
I might have BoBaited a little.
Meh, did pitchers report yet?
Joba did.
Tommie: very aroused.
Did someone tell him it was already teh 8th!!11!!!1?
tcwa
Dinner plans are taken care of, Mon’s Venus has a terrific buffet.
That sentence sounds dirtier than it actually is.
Only if Mon’s Venus is clear of any health department issues.
All you can eat of course
People still be hatin’ on Randy Winn. What’s the deal? Lol, I still think it was a decent move.
Most of the hatin`(here at least) is sarcasm.
You see, if you ever wanted to ever be anything/
There’d always be somebody that shoot down any dream/
There’ll always be haters, that’s the way it is/
Hater n$%#&s marry hater b#$%&#s and have hater kids/
/Kanye’d
can you add a second n to your handle?
And change the 27 to 28?
Team work, baby.
He’s a 4th OF. Like Melky. Only so much you can hate on.
82 defensive runs is a lot…No?
Indeed.
PECOTA predicts Randy Winn to have a +1.0 LF UZR. It thinks Brett Gardner, the man Winn replaced, will have a -81.0 UZR. It’s bearish on Gardner’s defense.
[Ed. note: That's 100% bullshit, what Tommie just said. He's a moron.]
I think Randy Winn should change his first name to Epic.
If you told me that Randy Winn’s middle name was Scott Brosius, I’d believe you.
IETC. Brosius was the B0mb.
http://twitpic.com/oadh6
this never gets old. ietc.
http://twitpic.com/o9uys
I gotta admit, I’m gonna miss the lil’ guy.
Affleck was the bomb in Phantoms, yo!!
WORD, BITCH, PHANTOMS LIKE A MU’UHFUCKA!!!
(high five)
/cringe
I used to work with a guy who would use “Win!” and “Fail!” as interjections. He was fired, because he was bad at his job.
FYI.
Internet snark:
Funny on the internets, not funny at work.
Were they predicting an outfield of Dunn/Damon/Hawpe compared to Winn/Gardner/Granderson? If that’s the case, I see where this 80 runs came from
Heh.
I almost want Damon to sign with the Nats now, just to watch a possible Dunn-Dukes-Damon OF.
Regrettably (for comedy purposes), not only would a Damon-Nats marriage never happen, but the Nats wizened up and added Nyjer Morgan and moved Dunn permanently to 1B.
Ah, what could have been.
Well, now the king of fruitless hypotheticals has to give up his nick, tommie. You done CLAIMED it!
Meh, I gave him his nickname.
It comes full circle. (TWSS)
789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third.
Winn.
NO there’s no way that anyone can possibly make any predictions that are based on bogus numbers and if they’re accurate it’s nothing more than pure luck so stop trying nerds!!! baseball is played on the field!!!I HATE THINGS I CAN’T UNDERSTAND!!!
/haterade’d
Yo. What time is the open thread? I need to get some things off my chest.
LET ME KNOW.
7pm…everyday same time
Respect.
I’ll check back after I’m done eating this sandwich.
I’m kinda curious now.
with a name like “taintstick” I’m curious too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj5hqhSRzrk (NSFW)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGCM-dAr6_4
Don’t mention it.
When a guy named “Taintstick” has some things to get off his chest…
This is gonna be GOOD.
It better be now. He’s building some anticipation here.
Losing 81 runs on offense is a bit interesting. So basically the corrections in RS and RA from the first projections cancel each other out in the run differential…interesting.
Losing runs on a prediction basis has to be assumed since they are going from all star level production in LF to below avg production. And Johnson for all his OBP prowess is not the run producer Matsui is. And Granderson for all his homer hitting isnt that far above Melky.
Taintstick can come quickly enough.
Craziest thing about this whole thing is that the orioles will win 80 games… that is absurd.
I have no idea how they get from 915 last year to 836.
Granderson = Damon
Johnson = Matsui (maybe a small dropoff depending on how much Johnson’s power returns)
ARod should play a full season, so an uptick here
Even if Posada drops off, he missed a bunch of time last year and Cervelli should be better than Molina.
Jeter could have a slight dropoff
Gardner should be roughly the same offensively as Melky bc he is a better baserunner (I assume he drops off hitting-wise).
Tex, Cano, Swisher should be roughly the same.
I ran the numbers through the lineup simulator (assuming reasonable days off) and got 925 runs or so.
I just don’t get it.
2009 woba
Johnson .373 (coming off an injury that sapped his power and resulted in an incredibly low HR/FB ratio, and he didn’t play in Yankee stadium with the short right porch where Damon hit most of his home runs)
Damon .376
Matsui .378
Granderson .340 (down year – previous were .374 and .395 – BABIP was .276 vs .323 lifetime and not in Yankee stadium with the rf porch).
Again, I don’t get it.
Rope,please.