Feb
02

Upon further consideration, PECOTA picks Yanks to win the East

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And the PECOTA saga continues. Last week the initial forecasts hit the internet, and they had the Yankees finishing third and out of the playoffs. These are, of course, projections and not predictions, and considering the three wins that separated the Yankees from first place, it was really a virtual toss-up. Then, later in the week, after flaws emerged in the original formula, Baseball Prospectus updated them, this time putting the Yankees and Red Sox in a tie atop the division, with the Rays finishing a game back. Again, virtually no difference among them.

Once again, BP has tinkered with the formula, trying to make it as accurate as possible. Apparently, accuracy is good for the Yankees. As the depth chart stands now, the Yankees sit atop the AL East with 94 wins, with the Sox in second at 92 and the Rays in third at 90. Just like before, this still puts the teams on relatively even ground. It’s just nice to see the Yankees on top.

It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.

Categories : Analysis

79 Comments»

  1. Regis says:

    836 runs scored seems a bit on the low side.

  2. Salty Buggah says:

    Awesome.

    Too bad TEH STAT ZOMBIEZ won’t know anything until they pick up a bat. Morons at Baseball Prospectus don’t know nothin! Losers

    /that one girl’d

  3. Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster) says:

    Do the 836 runs lead the league?

  4. JMK aka The Overshare's Garden Apartment Complex says:

    I’m glad they’re tinkering with the formulas to make sure they’re as accurate as possible, but why put out three separate projections? Why not have tweaked the formulas and simply put out the one they felt was most accurate? Randy Winn’s addition did not for 80 runs; the information they had was there the whole time. They look foolish at this point.

  5. The Scout says:

    This is great: another week or week or so of projections and we can just skip the season and go directly to the play-offs!

  6. It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.

    You know what’s funny?

    Two words: RANDY. WINN.

  7. bonestock94 says:

    Meh, did pitchers report yet?

  8. yankswin27 says:

    People still be hatin’ on Randy Winn. What’s the deal? Lol, I still think it was a decent move.

  9. Tom Zig says:

    82 defensive runs is a lot…No?

  10. JM says:

    I think Randy Winn should change his first name to Epic.

  11. Chip says:

    Were they predicting an outfield of Dunn/Damon/Hawpe compared to Winn/Gardner/Granderson? If that’s the case, I see where this 80 runs came from

  12. king of fruitless hypotheticals says:

    789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third.

    Winn.

  13. pete says:

    NO there’s no way that anyone can possibly make any predictions that are based on bogus numbers and if they’re accurate it’s nothing more than pure luck so stop trying nerds!!! baseball is played on the field!!!I HATE THINGS I CAN’T UNDERSTAND!!!

    /haterade’d

  14. Taintstick says:

    Yo. What time is the open thread? I need to get some things off my chest.

    LET ME KNOW.

  15. Tom Zig says:

    Losing 81 runs on offense is a bit interesting. So basically the corrections in RS and RA from the first projections cancel each other out in the run differential…interesting.

  16. Lanny says:

    Losing runs on a prediction basis has to be assumed since they are going from all star level production in LF to below avg production. And Johnson for all his OBP prowess is not the run producer Matsui is. And Granderson for all his homer hitting isnt that far above Melky.

  17. ADam says:

    Craziest thing about this whole thing is that the orioles will win 80 games… that is absurd.

  18. Matcohen says:

    I have no idea how they get from 915 last year to 836.
    Granderson = Damon
    Johnson = Matsui (maybe a small dropoff depending on how much Johnson’s power returns)
    ARod should play a full season, so an uptick here
    Even if Posada drops off, he missed a bunch of time last year and Cervelli should be better than Molina.
    Jeter could have a slight dropoff
    Gardner should be roughly the same offensively as Melky bc he is a better baserunner (I assume he drops off hitting-wise).
    Tex, Cano, Swisher should be roughly the same.

    I ran the numbers through the lineup simulator (assuming reasonable days off) and got 925 runs or so.

    I just don’t get it.

  19. Matcohen says:

    2009 woba
    Johnson .373 (coming off an injury that sapped his power and resulted in an incredibly low HR/FB ratio, and he didn’t play in Yankee stadium with the short right porch where Damon hit most of his home runs)
    Damon .376
    Matsui .378
    Granderson .340 (down year – previous were .374 and .395 – BABIP was .276 vs .323 lifetime and not in Yankee stadium with the rf porch).

    Again, I don’t get it.

  20. bobmac says:

    Rope,please.

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