Feb
02

Upon further consideration, PECOTA picks Yanks to win the East

By

And the PECOTA saga continues. Last week the initial forecasts hit the internet, and they had the Yankees finishing third and out of the playoffs. These are, of course, projections and not predictions, and considering the three wins that separated the Yankees from first place, it was really a virtual toss-up. Then, later in the week, after flaws emerged in the original formula, Baseball Prospectus updated them, this time putting the Yankees and Red Sox in a tie atop the division, with the Rays finishing a game back. Again, virtually no difference among them.

Once again, BP has tinkered with the formula, trying to make it as accurate as possible. Apparently, accuracy is good for the Yankees. As the depth chart stands now, the Yankees sit atop the AL East with 94 wins, with the Sox in second at 92 and the Rays in third at 90. Just like before, this still puts the teams on relatively even ground. It’s just nice to see the Yankees on top.

It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.

Categories : Analysis
  • Regis

    836 runs scored seems a bit on the low side.

  • Salty Buggah

    Awesome.

    Too bad TEH STAT ZOMBIEZ won’t know anything until they pick up a bat. Morons at Baseball Prospectus don’t know nothin! Losers

    /that one girl’d

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Who cares if I’m a moron, I’M HOT, DAMNIT!!!

  • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

    Do the 836 runs lead the league?

    • JGS

      yea–Texas is in second with 826, Boston at 806 and no one else in the Majors above 800.

      • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

        Cool, thanks.

      • Chris

        Not to sound too skeptical, but the last time 3 or fewer teams scored more than 800 runs was in 1995 (2 teams) – and that was a short season because of the lock out!

  • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

    I’m glad they’re tinkering with the formulas to make sure they’re as accurate as possible, but why put out three separate projections? Why not have tweaked the formulas and simply put out the one they felt was most accurate? Randy Winn’s addition did not for 80 runs; the information they had was there the whole time. They look foolish at this point.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      They’ve been fairly transparent with the process if you read the Unfiltered posts. When coding these things, it’s really easy to double enter info, and that’s pretty much what happened. David Pease summarized some issues earlier today.

      • JMK aka The Overshare’s Garden Apartment Complex

        Right. I’m not trying to be critical, but I think it would have been more prudent to have done the testing a few times, crossed the Ts and dotted Is, and then published it. I don’t think there’s an agenda or they’re caving to the whims of the fan; it’s data in a complex model. Take some time to look through it, don’t just press ‘enter’ three times.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          Colonel Sandurz: PREPARE TO FAST-FORWARD!
          Corporal: Preparing to fast-forward.
          Colonel Sandurz: FAST FORWARD!
          Corporal: Fast-forwarding, sir.

          • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

            Bullshit! Ludicrous speed! GO!

        • Lanny

          Why wouldnt you want to be critical? Why post that if you arent? You may as well post a lame movie quote

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Randy Winn’s addition did not for 80 runs;

      OR DID IT??!?!

    • MikeD

      They acknowledged an error up front. They weren’t happy about it, but errors do happen. Instead of pulling it down, they basically said the projections were in “beta” and would be updated a few times in the coming week. If they knew there was an error originally I’m sure they would have held back on the post, but once it was up, they’ve let us experience the updates as they happen. I have no issue with that. I would like to know, however, when they think their projections are fully baked.

  • The Scout

    This is great: another week or week or so of projections and we can just skip the season and go directly to the play-offs!

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

    It appears PECOTA has changed its mind on how many runs the Yankees will allow. It went from 789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third. From what I understand, defensive measurement was part of the issue in the first couple of releases.

    You know what’s funny?

    Two words: RANDY. WINN.

    • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

      Randy Winn: Defensive god. Even his name is a win. (Rimshot!)

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        FACT: Even with a 0.0 WAR, Randy Winn is a one-win player. FACT.

        • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

          Randy Winn: My new favorite player.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            He just won us the AL East. Go ahead, look it up. It’s right there.

            • Rocky Road Redemption (formerly RAB poster)

              He’s my favorite for a good reason, after all.

    • Steve H

      Two more words: CANCELING. TICKETS.

      /braunx teechur’d

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Two more words: CANCELING CANCELLING [sic]. TICKETS.

        /braunx teechur’d

        ——————

        Fixed.

    • pete

      take that bo

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        I might have BoBaited a little.

  • bonestock94

    Meh, did pitchers report yet?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Joba did.

      Tommie: very aroused.

      • Steve H

        Did someone tell him it was already teh 8th!!11!!!1?

        • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templeton_Peck Templeton “Brendog” Peck

          tcwa

      • http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bring-Melvin-To-America/193013541601?ref=sgm Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Dinner plans are taken care of, Mon’s Venus has a terrific buffet.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          That sentence sounds dirtier than it actually is.

          • ColoYank

            Only if Mon’s Venus is clear of any health department issues.

            • http://www.wiredtowns.com Short Porch

              All you can eat of course

  • yankswin27

    People still be hatin’ on Randy Winn. What’s the deal? Lol, I still think it was a decent move.

    • Steve H

      Most of the hatin`(here at least) is sarcasm.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      You see, if you ever wanted to ever be anything/
      There’d always be somebody that shoot down any dream/
      There’ll always be haters, that’s the way it is/
      Hater n$%#&s marry hater b#$%&#s and have hater kids/

      /Kanye’d

    • Tom Zig

      can you add a second n to your handle?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        And change the 27 to 28?

        • Tom Zig

          Team work, baby.

    • Lanny

      He’s a 4th OF. Like Melky. Only so much you can hate on.

  • Tom Zig

    82 defensive runs is a lot…No?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Indeed.

      PECOTA predicts Randy Winn to have a +1.0 LF UZR. It thinks Brett Gardner, the man Winn replaced, will have a -81.0 UZR. It’s bearish on Gardner’s defense.

      [Ed. note: That's 100% bullshit, what Tommie just said. He's a moron.]

  • JM

    I think Randy Winn should change his first name to Epic.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      If you told me that Randy Winn’s middle name was Scott Brosius, I’d believe you.

      • JM

        IETC. Brosius was the B0mb.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada
          • bexarama

            this never gets old. ietc.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

              http://twitpic.com/o9uys

              I gotta admit, I’m gonna miss the lil’ guy.

        • pat

          Affleck was the bomb in Phantoms, yo!!

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

            WORD, BITCH, PHANTOMS LIKE A MU’UHFUCKA!!!

            (high five)

    • Accent Shallow

      /cringe

      I used to work with a guy who would use “Win!” and “Fail!” as interjections. He was fired, because he was bad at his job.

      FYI.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

        Internet snark:

        Funny on the internets, not funny at work.

  • Chip

    Were they predicting an outfield of Dunn/Damon/Hawpe compared to Winn/Gardner/Granderson? If that’s the case, I see where this 80 runs came from

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      Heh.

      I almost want Damon to sign with the Nats now, just to watch a possible Dunn-Dukes-Damon OF.

      Regrettably (for comedy purposes), not only would a Damon-Nats marriage never happen, but the Nats wizened up and added Nyjer Morgan and moved Dunn permanently to 1B.

      Ah, what could have been.

      • ColoYank

        Well, now the king of fruitless hypotheticals has to give up his nick, tommie. You done CLAIMED it!

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

          Meh, I gave him his nickname.

          It comes full circle. (TWSS)

  • king of fruitless hypotheticals

    789 runs allowed in the first iteration to 733 in the second, and all the way to 707 in the third.

    Winn.

  • pete

    NO there’s no way that anyone can possibly make any predictions that are based on bogus numbers and if they’re accurate it’s nothing more than pure luck so stop trying nerds!!! baseball is played on the field!!!I HATE THINGS I CAN’T UNDERSTAND!!!

    /haterade’d

  • Taintstick

    Yo. What time is the open thread? I need to get some things off my chest.

    LET ME KNOW.

    • Tom Zig

      7pm…everyday same time

      • Taintstick

        Respect.

        I’ll check back after I’m done eating this sandwich.

    • A.D.

      I’m kinda curious now.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Archimedes Torquemada

      When a guy named “Taintstick” has some things to get off his chest…

      This is gonna be GOOD.

      • Steve H

        It better be now. He’s building some anticipation here.

  • Tom Zig

    Losing 81 runs on offense is a bit interesting. So basically the corrections in RS and RA from the first projections cancel each other out in the run differential…interesting.

  • Lanny

    Losing runs on a prediction basis has to be assumed since they are going from all star level production in LF to below avg production. And Johnson for all his OBP prowess is not the run producer Matsui is. And Granderson for all his homer hitting isnt that far above Melky.

    • http://www.wiredtowns.com Short Porch

      Taintstick can come quickly enough.

  • ADam

    Craziest thing about this whole thing is that the orioles will win 80 games… that is absurd.

  • Matcohen

    I have no idea how they get from 915 last year to 836.
    Granderson = Damon
    Johnson = Matsui (maybe a small dropoff depending on how much Johnson’s power returns)
    ARod should play a full season, so an uptick here
    Even if Posada drops off, he missed a bunch of time last year and Cervelli should be better than Molina.
    Jeter could have a slight dropoff
    Gardner should be roughly the same offensively as Melky bc he is a better baserunner (I assume he drops off hitting-wise).
    Tex, Cano, Swisher should be roughly the same.

    I ran the numbers through the lineup simulator (assuming reasonable days off) and got 925 runs or so.

    I just don’t get it.

  • Matcohen

    2009 woba
    Johnson .373 (coming off an injury that sapped his power and resulted in an incredibly low HR/FB ratio, and he didn’t play in Yankee stadium with the short right porch where Damon hit most of his home runs)
    Damon .376
    Matsui .378
    Granderson .340 (down year – previous were .374 and .395 – BABIP was .276 vs .323 lifetime and not in Yankee stadium with the rf porch).

    Again, I don’t get it.

  • bobmac

    Rope,please.