We need to look no further than Jeter in 2008 to find and area where PECOTA does not excel. As we know, Jeter had an off year for him in 2008, chiefly caused by a couple of non-age-related injuries, including being hit on the hand by a pitch that substantially hurt his hiting in the early season. PECOTA for 2009 projected off his 2008 numbers and his age, projecting a further decline. Not a good assumption.

I think we’ll see the same break down in PECOTA projections for A-Rod is 2010 as we saw with Jeter in 2009. Next year A-Rod should be the healthiest he’s been since 2007, as his hip started bothering him in late July 2008, impacting his hitting the last two months, and of course the surgery limiting him in 2009. I wouldn’t project a return to 2007, but a .300/.400/.600 season is more likely than what PECOTA will project for him this upcoming season.

There’s a possibility that a group of players, such as Cano, A-Rod, Granderson and Winn, will exceed their 2009 OPS+s for a variety of reasons, while others, such as Swisher, Tex and Johnson maintain, and others, such as Jeter and Posada, post declines, but probably not significant declines. Jeter is a highly consistent hitter, who cranks out 120+ seasons with ease when healthy. My guess is his OPS+ comes in somewhere between his career 121 and his 2009 132.

There is almost assuredly someone in the group of Yankee hitters who will have a bust year due to injury or age compared to his 2009 season. Perhaps Posada, perhaps someone else. There is also somebody in here who will have a bust-out year compared to 2009, perhaps a Cano, who is entering his age 27 year; or an A-Rod, who will be healthy for the first time since 2007; or Granderson, who had a down year last season, but is still just 29.

We were scarier.