2010 Draft: Mid-to-late round arms
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Ever since taking over as scouting director in 2005, Damon Oppenheimer has provided the Yankees with a steady stream of low cost pitching talent to plug holes in the bullpen and use as trade bait. Most of those arms have been acquired in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft, making those selections that much more rewarding. In 2006 he landed Mark Melancon (9th round), Dan McCutchen (13th), and David Robertson (17th), then in 2008 he drafted D.J. Mitchell (10th) and David Phelps (14th), and last year it was Sean Black (7th), Gavin Brooks (9th), and Graham Stoneburner (14th).
The general idea was to take polished college starters with good enough stuff, and hope pitching guru Nardi Contreras can take them to the next level. As more and more teams are becoming aggressive in the draft, it’s getting harder and harder to find valuable pieces after the 3rd or 4th or 5th round. Oppenheimer’s approach has yielded quality relievers and decent trade pieces, which is exactly what a big money club like the Yankees need.
Surely the Yankees will deploy the same strategy this June, using those usually fruitless middle rounds to replenish the pipeline with more useful arms that should climb the ladder quickly. Here’s a few such players the Yankees could target…
Bryan Harper, LHP, College of Southern Nevada
Projected top pick Bryce Harper isn’t the only baseball prospect in his family, his older brother Bryan is a pretty good player himself. After posting a 6.68 ERA with a 15-22 K/BB ratio in 32.1 IP as a freshman at Cal State Northridge, Harper transferred to CSN to help his brother transition to college ball when he should have been a junior in high school. He’s emerged as the Coyotes best starter, carving up the wood bat league to the tune of a 2.39 ERA with a 41-17 K/BB ratio in 26.1 IP.
A physical specimen like his brother, the elder Harper is projectable at 6-foot-5 and just 190 lbs. Obviously he needs to work on his command and control, but the raw stuff is there. His fastball generally sits 89-91 – less impressive than his brother’s heat, actually – and his second pitch is a big breaking curve that is a put-away pitch some days and a show-me offering on others. A changeup has been in the works as well. Harper needs to become more consistent with all of his pitches, and that will come with experience and pro instruction.
Draft eligible because of the transfer to a junior college, Harper is likely an early double-digit round selection. Teams with the top overall pick usually select that player’s bother if he’s draft eligible as a bit of a favor and also to provide a certain level of comfort. Most recently, the Rays drafted Jeremy Beckham in the 17th round after taking his younger brother Tim first overall in 2008. If the team that takes Bryce doesn’t draft Bryan later on, he’ll be a very tough sign and will likely end up following through on his commitment to South Carolina.
Photo Credit: Screen cap’d from here
Chris Hernandez, LHP, Miami
After turning the Tigers down out of high school as a 14th round pick in 2007, Hernandez became the early favorite to go 1-1 in 2010 after going 11-0 with a 2.72 ERA and an ungodly 117-18 K/BB ratio as a freshman. He took a step back in 2009, becoming much more hittable and doubling his walk rate. Hernandez has been better in four starts this year, posting a 27-7 K/BB ratio with a 2.35 ERA in 23 IP as the team’s Friday night starter.
The 6-foot-1, 190 lb Hernandez features four quality pitches, led by a devastating cut fastball that sits 88-91. Once he learns to use the pitch in on righties, it’ll chew up wood bats. He also throws a straight four-seam fastball that tops out in the low-90′s, and his power slider has shown flashes of being a put-away pitch. Hernandez’s changeup is a solid offering that helps him neutralize righthanded batters. With above average control and decent command, Hernandez is aggressive in the strike zone but can fall victim to throwing too many strikes.
Hernandez is the ideal mid-round candidate, because he’s got good stuff, throws strikes, and has experience at a major college program. If he fills out just a little more and adds just a tick more to his fastball, everything is there for him to pitch near the front of a big league rotation. Expected to go somewhere in the 4th to 6th round range before the season, Hernandez will almost assuredly go higher than that if he keeps pitching as well as he has in the early going.
Photo Credit: Phil Coale, AP
Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Alabama
Hailing from David Robertson’s alma mater, Nelson isn’t even the best draft prospect on his own team, as he plays second (and third) fiddle to middle infielders Josh Rutledge and Ross Wilson. Used as a middle reliever and occasional spot starter during his first two years at Alabama, Nelson burst on the scene last summer after a dominant showing in the Florida Collegiate Summer League, when he lead the circuit with 75 strikeouts in 59 innings. He’s been able to carry that success into the spring, as he’s posted a 0.82 ERA with a 26-5 K/BB ratio in 22 IP covering four starts.
Nelson uses a pair of fastballs to set up his power slider, which is among the best in the draft class. His four-seam fastball will sit at 89-91, and he turn the ball over the get some sink with a two-seamer. The slider is Nelson’s bread and butter; he throws it in the low-80′s and uses it to get swings in misses almost at will. His control isn’t great but it is improving, and that’s really what’s holding him back from taking that step from good arm to great arm and top prospect.
With a big 6-foot-6, 235 lb pound, Nelson screams potential workhouse. He may not be able to start because he lacks the offspeed pitch to battle lefties, but with two fastballs and legitimate strikeout pitch, he projects as a quality power arm for the back of the bullpen. Nelson is expected to go anywhere from the 5th to 10th round at the moment, and the Yankees would hope that Contreras could help him polish off his control.
Photo Credit: Alex Gilbert, Alabama
Addison Reed, RHP, San Diego State
Reed had the unfortunate task of taking over as the Aztecs’ ace after some kid named Stephen Strasburg held it down for two years. While he hasn’t replaced Strasburg’s dominance, he’s pitched about as well as coach Tony Gwynn could have asked. After serving as the team’s closer as a sophomore, Reed has successful transitioned to the rotation and has a 2.36 ERA and a 30-7 K/BB ratio in 26.2 IP over four starts.
The 6-foot-3, 215 pounder has more of a classic reliever’s repertoire, consistently showing 94 with his fastball and the ability to spin a decent breaking ball. He’s very aggressive and willing to challenge hitters, which at times can get him in trouble with the long ball. The physical ability is there, now it’s just a matter of helping Reed develop that ability into baseball skills so he can reach his ceiling. Projected to go in the 3rd to 5th round, Reed will probably be the first of the four players in this post to have his named called on Draft Day.
Photo Credit: San Diego Hall of Champions
While all four of these pitchers have the potential to turn into useful big leaguers down the road, none of them are expected to be drafted in a premium round. The Yankees have done as good a job as anyone when it comes to evaluating pitching and developing into more than anticipated, giving them plenty of options to rotate in and out of the bullpen and to market to other teams in trades. Any of these four would continue that tradition.
David Robertson Photo Credit: Gene J. Puskar, AP
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After turning the Tigers down out of high school as a 14th round pick in 2007, Hernandez became the early favorite to go 1-1 in 2010 after going 11-0 with a 2.72 ERA and an ungodly 117-18 K/BB ratio as a freshman.
(drools)
Chris Hernandez FTW!
Hernandez almost sounds like a left handed Adam Warren. Am I way off on that?
Bryan Harper should change his name to Bryce on the day before the draft. Then, when his brother gets drafted, he should claim the team drafted him and not his brother, and have Boras get him a big first round deal.
And we then draft “Bryan” Harper in the 11th round, and sign him to an unprecedented 15M bonus. By the time the commissioner knows what happened, the ink will already be dry, and we’ll be on our yacht in the Turks and Caicos, eating king prawns and Verve Cliquot and laughing about the whole thing.
Veuve, not Verve.
DAMNIT!
(hangs head in shame)
When your head went down, did you see the tall glass of Pinstripe DFA/IPA© I just poured for you?
Thanks. The only cure for my shame is to get drunk. Near-death drunk, in fact.
http://tinyurl.com/baqhaa
this is amazingly awesome
Hands bottle of Pinstriped DFA IPA that has been sitting out in the sun too long to TSJC
You put in a good effort, kid….
/Old School Baseball Manager’d
Thanks, skip.
You can stop patting me on the butt, though. Twice was enough.
When you stop clapping it, I’ll stop patting it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9t1Zso8MgOA (NSFW, not remotely)
Sounds like the perfect way to steal Bryce and still get a decent prospect in his brother. I very much hope illegal backroom deals are struck….muahaha
If the Sox do it, it will be considered shrewd.
Are draft eligible sophomores going to get their own post? The over slot signings of Stoneburner and Cotham appear to indicate that Opp really flexes yankees dollars to sign the top DES.
I wasn’t planning on it, but that’s a good idea.
Reggie C. just added value.
He has a 3.2 VORP(oster)
Oh yeah. A chris hernandez selection would make the kid the 3rd best lefty starter in the farm, so yeah, we could use some quality lefty SP, especially one with better stuff than Bleich.
Bleich has good stuff if you believe the uptick in velocity. His control is the issue.
Mike, any thought on Matt Harvey. I know he was a big time prospect before collapsing last year, but he has had 2 great outing this year and two average/bad outing. Where might he go?
He’s gotten better this year, but I honestly have no idea where he’d go. I could see him going literally anywhere, from the first round to completely undrafted.
He’s been able to carry that success into the spring, as he’s posted a 0.82 ERA with a 26-5 K/BB ratio in 22 IP covering four starts.
Hell of a limited early going sample.
he is obv an ace meant for future cy youngs
Can someone explain the towel throwing thing? Why a towel? What’s the physiological/training benefit of throwing a towel?
What else would you throw?
A ball?
A chair?
Sincerely,
Frank Francisco
Why yes a chair.
Sincerely,
Billy Beane
/Moneyball’d
A midget?
A World Series?
Sincerely,
Eddie Cicotte, Happy Felsch, Chick Gandil, Swede Risberg, Lefty Williams, Fred McMullin, Buck Weaver, and Joe Jackson
You leave George Weaver out of that.
George “Buck” Weaver.
No. I meant he wasn’t a part of it. But that is another discussion for another time.
Oh, I gotcha.
Joe Jackson probably wasn’t a part of it either… but yeah, this is a conversation for another time.
the picture of robertson was taken the moment nolan ryan punched robin ventura in the face for a 73rd time. robertson had seen enough
/no mas’d
I laughed.
Many believe it was actually Charlie Comiskey, the owner, that organized the fix with some of the players. However, not all of the players, namely Joe Jackson, were believe to be involved.
What many believe happened was Jackson was illiterate and uneducated, so Comiskey gave him his lawyers. The lawyers then did an intentionally poor job defending Jackson and essentially passed all of the blame onto him in order to exonerate their employer, Comiskey. Jackson was not bright enough to realize. Thus, he got banned and Comiskey got into the HOF.
(I think this was the case with one of the other members of the eight as well, but don’t remember which one)
However, not all of the players, namely Joe Jackson, were not believe to be involved.
fixed
Not challenging you on this at all, but as a history geek I was wondering if you had a source/reference to share.
I read it in a book by Elliott Kalb, “Who’s Better, Who’s Best in Baseball.” He essentially ranked his top 100 players in baseball, as of 2005 or so, overall the book is good. Many of his choices are off, but some of his stories (like this one) and comparisons are very good.
cabers?
Ooooh, nice World’s Strongest Man reference.
Hernandez does seem pretty nasty. I wonder how long he hangs around being that lefties are usually pretty hot commodities on draft day.
Your cookies.
probably just easily available in the locker room/training facility as something with a little weight to help warm up stretch out the arm.
Also might be easier for pitching coach to follow the follow through.
Also might be easier for pitching coach to follow the follow through.
Yeah, okay, I could see that. I want to watch the tails of the towel and how they move to evaluate hand/wrist positioning, torque, stuff like that.
The towel drill is a remnant of old training mechanics. It should be gotten rid of completely. It results in pitchers trying to overextend and putting stress on their elbows far too often.
When taught correctly it isn’t too detrimental, and can be argued to be helpful. Problem is many guys who use it even at Divison I schools don’t make sure it is being executed properly.
The number one problem is pitchers not turning their torso at the right time and having stress on the arm and potentially even leading to reduced velocity.
It’s to help get extended on your delivery. The way I did it at least, a partner would hold his glove out at full extension length in front of you and the aim was to hit it with the towel.
(Used to pitch)
ONLY 10 MINUTES LEFT BEFORE THE RAB FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE SIGNUP!
DON’T FORGET
/offtopic’d but important, please delete after the warning has served it’s purpose
in what way is contreras a “guru”?
who exactly has he helped become an all star that has come thru the system?
Jimmy Nelson, RHP, Alabama
The Heir To Mo.
Book it. Heard it here first.
I’m hoping the Yankees can add some high-upside middle infield talent early in the draft. Maybe O’Conner, Hague or Cecchinni. I don’t see Machado or Colon falling to us.
Hey Mike, I love these types of posts. Have you ever thought of grading your old posts? Kind of a where are they now.
One that jumps out at me was a post you did a couple years ago on rebuilding the system with lefties.
Kinda sucks to play baseball all your life only to be the #2 Bry. Harper in the draft.
PS:Have you thought putting video to this blog to keep the people more interested?I think it works.