2010 Season Preview: Help from within

Fan Confidence Poll: March 29th, 2010
The positives of having Joba in the bullpen

Although they’ll always be known as a team that relies on stars and big name players, the core of the most recent Yankees’ dynasty came from within. The team developed three borderline Hall of Fame players at premium up-the-middle positions (Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte) in under a decade, and that alone would have been a strong enough foundation for perennial championship contender. The Yankees got greedy though, so they went ahead and developed a surefire Hall of Fame shortstop and the greatest relief pitcher who ever lived as well. That’s not just a great run of player development, it’s a historically great run.

After the lavish spending that occurred in the early part of the century, GM Brian Cashman re-emphasized the farm system and player development, and in recent years he’s begun to see those efforts pay dividends. Last year’s World Series roster featured eight homegrown players who made their big league debut within the last five seasons, and six who debuted within the last three years.

The crown jewel of the farm system right now is the man you see above, 20-year-old catcher Jesus Montero. Opinions about his ability to remain behind the plate vary, though most believe he’s destined to move to a less valuable position down the road. His bat will work no matter where he plays, because he compliments top of the line power with a solid approach and the innate ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball. As a 19-year-old he hit .337-.389-.562 with 17 homers in 92 games split between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton before a fluke injury (broken finger on his catching hand) ended his season in August, and just before Spring Training he was named the fourth best prospect in the game by Baseball America. The Yankees have Montero penciled into the starting catcher’s job for Triple-A Scranton this season.

It’s unlikely the Yanks would call Montero up for any sort of extended playing time during the 2010 season, but they have several other players on the cusp of contributing, one of whom we caught a glimpse of last season. Mark Melancon, the team’s best relief prospect, walked as many batters as he struck out (ten) in his 16.1 inning cameo, but his minor league track record (2.69 FIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 57.6 GB%) screams future success. With a low-90’s fastball and an out-pitch curveball, the 25-year-old Tommy John surgery survivor will be the first arm called up whenever the bullpen needs some help, and there’s a good chance he’ll be this year’s version of David Robertson.

Another player the Yankees are sure to call on at some point is utility man Kevin Russo (left), who has opened eyes this spring with a .276-.353-.379 batting line. A 2006 draft pick like Melancon and Robertson, the 24-year-old broke out in 2008 and has hit .318-.379-.424 since, playing three infield spots as well as the outfield corners. The undersized Russo (5-foot-11, 190 lbs.) has battled hamstring injuries and bad luck in his pro career (a batted ball in BP broke some bones in his face), but he’s the first in line for a promotion when Ramiro Pena falters or the bench otherwise needs some reinforcements.

The Yanks also have young rotation depth in 23-year-old Ivan Nova (3.83 FIP, 1.53 K/BB last year) and 22-year-old Zach McAllister (3.03 FIP, 2.91 K/BB), both of whom will open the season in the Triple-A Scranton rotation and project as back of the rotation workhorses. Jason Hirsh is a little older than those two at 28, but he’s a former top prospect with the Astros and Rockies who has big league experience and has done nothing but get outs since joining the Yanks last season. All three players also double as prime pieces of trade bait should the Yankees decide to go that route. The 24-year-old Greg Golson offers elite defense and speed if a stopgap outfielder is needed, and I’m pretty sure we’re all familiar with the soon to be 27-year-old first baseman Juan Miranda. All but McAllister and Hirsh are on the 40-man roster.

Those are the players that are in the position to help the big league team in 2010, but the Yankees also have several prospects further down the ladder with a chance to make a name for themselves this year. Catcher Austin Romine will finally step out of Montero’s shadow this year for Double-A Trenton, and look to improve on last year’s .347 wOBA with High-A Tampa while handling the rigors of his first full season as a clear cut number one catcher. With a strong all-around package of offense and defense at a premium position, the 21-year-old Romine is the early favorite to be the team’s catcher of the future.

His battery mate every five days will be former Stanford lefty Jeremy Bleich, who despite less than stellar stats at Double-A Trenton (4.40 FIP, 1.76 K/BB) showed great improvement with his stuff last year as he got further away from a 2008 elbow injury. Drafted as a polished finesse pitcher, the 22-year-old’s velocity flirted with 95 last season, and anytime a lefty throws that hard, you pay attention. He’ll look to regain his trademark command this year to get back on track.

Dominican bonus baby Jose Ramirez, 21, took the short season circuit by storm last year when he held opponents to a .161 batting average and posted a 3.46 FIP and a 3.31 K/BB, and he’ll bring his mid-90’s gas and knockout changeup to Low-A Charleston in 2010. Lefty Manny Banuelos emerged as Charleston’s ace last season when he posted a 2.76 FIP and a 3.71 K/BB in 108 innings, earning himself a trip to the Futures Game. Still a year away from his 20th birthday, he’ll jump to High-A Tampa and try to further establish himself as a cornerstone piece for the future. Last year’s top draft picks, outfielder Slade Heathcott and catcher J.R. Murphy, will spend their first full season in the organization proving they were worth their seven figure signing bonuses.

Of course, when it comes to farm system this year, all eyes will again be on 2007 first rounder Andrew Brackman (right), who disappointed in 2009 to say the least. The now 24-year-old posted a 4.66 FIP in Low-A Charleston, walking close to six and a half batters for every nine innings pitched, and his stuff was a far cry from what it was in college. The silver lining was that he continued to miss bats (8.69 K/9) and showed improved control and arm strength in a late season stint as a reliever, which he was able to carry over into Instructional League and again into Spring Training. The Yankees will bump Brackman up to High-A Tampa in part because his big league contract will force him to stick in the Majors for good by 2013, and they’re looking for him to really step up and grab the reigns in a farm system devoid of star power beyond it’s top prospect.

Trades, attrition, and graduation have thinned out the farm system that was rated as one of the game’s five best by Baseball America as recently as 2008, but the Yankees still have a bonafide superstar in the making in Jesus Montero, as well as several complementary pieces just a phone call away from the Bronx. The 2009 draft brought a much needed influx of high upside position players and power arms, while several Latin America prospects and pre-2009 draftees are poised to make the jump from good to very good and possibly even great prospects as they enter into their early-20’s and finish maturing.

The current Yankee team is still built around that same homegrown core from the late-90’s, though they’re surrounded by more star power than ever before. Should they need some reinforcements during the season or prospects to dangle as trade bait, the farm system offers plenty of variety. As the Yankees look to start their next dynasty, they aren’t going to have the luxury of producing five players as productive as the quintet they produced in the 90’s, though it’s possible no team will ever have that much player development success in such a short period of time ever again.

Photo Credits: Jesus Montero via Kathy Willens, AP. Kevin Russo via AP (uncredited). Andrew Brackman via Barton Silverman, NY Times.

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Fan Confidence Poll: March 29th, 2010
The positives of having Joba in the bullpen
  • Andy in Sunny Daytona

    Couldn’t you use my Austin Romine shot of him grabbing his crotch?

    • Rose

      I heard they made those illegal after Derek Lowe did the crotch chop a la NWO/DX. I certainly didn’t like it one bit.

      /Tejada’d (Tejeda’d?)

  • Mike HC

    Excellent article. Very informative.

    I just can’t wait until Jesus gets to the big leagues.

  • pat

    Every time Jesus smiles it lights up my life.

    • http://ibleedblueandwhite.com Jamie

      As the rain pours down. . . . Jesus shines a light on me.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

    All but McAllister and Hirsh are on the 40-man roster.

    With Hoffmann and Gaudin’s departure, we have two open spots on the 40 man. Thames will get one of them. Perhaps one of those two SP depth options gets the other? Any hints as to whom is in the running for that spot?

    • Rick in Boston

      I’m guessing it’s Hirsh – he’s got the higher level experience and can move into a role in New York with limited issue. I’d probably leave ZMac in Scranton until September unless all other alternatives are tapped.

      • Rick in Boston

        Or they leave it open for the Rivera/Golson emergency injury callup.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          Probably that. I agree, though, that Hirsh probably gets the call before ZMac.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          Golson’s already on the 40-man, though. Just in case you forgot.

          • Rick in Boston

            I did forget. Thanks for catching that. I’ll go with Hirsh, then. If Rivera is needed, they’ll DFA a reliever.

        • A.D.

          I’m guessing leave it open, no need to fill it just yet.

    • Brooklyn ed

      I would be surpised if Winfree made the team over Thames since Winfree could play both corner infield and outfield.

      • Rick in Boston

        Eh, Winfree hasn’t played 3B in the minors since 2007 and according to B-Ref hasn’t even had an MLB AB. I’d say he’ll spend the year in Scranton and maybe make an appearance in New York if a whole lot of bad things happen.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

        (confused)

        Do you mean to say you wouldn’t be surprised if Winfree made the team over Thames? That sentence makes more sense (as written).

        ——–

        I WOULD be surprised if Winfree made the team over Thames. Thames has a better track record of succeess. Winfree is AAA filler/depth.

        • Brooklyn ed

          lol yeah that, posting from the iPhone don’t help.

  • Viz is The Shizz

    What ever happened to Aroldys Vizcaino?

  • Billy

    Can’t wait to see if Colin Curtis can keep up the power production at AAA. I saw him in Fall League game and was blown away by his bat speeed as compared to earlier in the season. Looks like two different players.

  • Reggie C.

    Would be nice to see Jesus hit 25 hrs and continue to show an exponential, upward trend in his power development. Is it possible to keep track of how many of Jesus’s hrs would go out in YS III?

    • YankeesJunkie

      Defitenly the big thing is to see that Jesus is healthy and he continues to hit well. If he does that he could easily be a 25-30 homer power in AAA.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

      Would be nice to see Jesus hit 25 hrs and continue to show an exponential, upward trend in his power development.

      Yeah, that would be nice. If Jesus’s power trended upward exponentially, by the time he was in his 10th year in the league, he’d be hitting like 1,000 home runs per season.

      /mathjoke’d

    • http://cid-e3a022289d65b5c0.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Assorted/foul.jpg Andy (different one) in chilly NYC

      Remember also that Trenton suppresses power.

      • Rick in Boston

        Do we know how Scranton plays?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          Also a pitcher’s park.

          In fact, pretty much all of the Yankee farm system home parks are pitcher’s parks.

          http://pendingpinstripes.net/2.....ctors.html

          • Rick in Boston

            Interesting, thanks for finding that. I almost prefer having hitters develop in pitcher’s parks than in hitters parks. It makes them much better hitters all around.

            • radnom

              So does that make our pitchers worse? (sarcasm)

              It doesn’t make the hitters better, it just makes their MiL numbers worse.

              • Rick in Boston

                It makes them better all-around hitters. It’s not like a hitter in the California League who get a substantial boost to their numbers and mask their difficiences. It forces them to not just try and launch homers, but to work the other way, develop better situational hitting skills, etc.

                • radnom

                  I think you’re overstating that. They are supposedly working on these things anyway. Maybe there is a slight benefit, but I think the large affect is simply in public perspective.

  • pat

    For anybody interested, Slade has been killin it so far in camp. He’s been driving the ball to LF with authority, laying down and beating out bunts, stealing bases, (been picked off a bunch of times too), catching everything hit in his zipcode and thrown out a couple of runners at home with absolute (frickin) lazer beams from CF. All signs point to him being the opening day CF in Charleston.

    • andrew

      Are you at Spring Training? If so, I’m jealous.

    • Accent Shallow

      Sounds awesome. The farm could certainly use some high ceiling OF prospects, and I’m not sure Colin Curtis is cutting it.

    • JohnC

      How is JR Murphy doing so far this Spring?

      • pat

        He’s been doing well defensively, throwing out a bunch of would be base stealers. Been making solid contact with the bat, but not a lot to show for it.

  • mryankee

    How did Brackman look this spring? How was his velocity and command? I still have hope for him.

    • http://yanksdraftsandprospects.blogspot.com/ Jake H

      http://www.baseballprospectus......entMessage

      Here is a link to BP article. Newman says that Brackman has made huge strides and the other day went 5 strong without walking a batter.

      • Reggie C.

        That’s gotta be an early April Fool’s joke.

        /Bo’d

  • JohnC

    Would be nice if the weekly Yankees Magazine show on YES had a weekly Minor League Spotlight feature so we can see how some of the top prospects are progressing duirng the season as well.

    • Accent Shallow

      I’d watch it.

      Does YES have any MiL coverage? I can’t recall any.

    • http://www.progressamericana.com/ Pablo Zevallos

      YES has minor league coverage: Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues ;)

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona

        YES has minor league coverage: Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues

        Minus the Dominicans, of course. ;)

  • mryankee

    I wish they had taken Chapman-He could spend the entire year in double or triple a next year could slot right into the back of the rotation.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

      Cincinnati is more desperate for talent than we are, so they outbid us for the lottery ticket.

      If it’s any consolation, we’re still in on Rafael DePaula, who will sign soon.

      http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....-soon.html

      • mryankee

        Yes that is true-However in terms of a good fit, Chapman could have spentthe entire year in the minors. The Reds will have to call him up sooner that they would like-where as here he could develop in the minors the whole year and pop in the rotation next year. At five million a year that is a cost controlled young starter.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          I’m not sure of what you’re arguing here. That it would have been a better fit for Chapman to play in the minors for a year?

          For Champan, the best fit for him is the one where he gets on an ML roster ASAP and starts accumulating service time. I totally get why he picked the Reds over us (money aside).

          • Andy in Sunny Daytona

            Besides, I’m sure the Tnakee braintrust would deem him bullpen material after 20 starts.

            • Andy in Sunny Daytona

              Should be “Yankee” not “Tnakee”, but whatevs.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

              “We get more out of Aroldis’s ability as a reliever. We feel like he can be a good starter. We feel like he can be a great reliever.”

              Sincerely,
              Theoretical Dave Eiland

              • mryankee

                As much as it hurts me I have to agree with you that Joba should be a starter. I would prefer the starter that threw smoke and if that can be rediscovered then I want him in the rotation. Robertson, Park and soon Melancon can all be above average 8th inning men.

                • Tom Zig

                  As much as it hurts me I have to agree with you that Joba should be a starter. I would prefer the starter that threw smoke and if that can be rediscovered then I want him in the rotation. Robertson, Park and soon Melancon can all be above average 8th inning men.

                  There I made your excellent comment even more excellenter. You’re welcome.

    • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

      I wish they had taken Chapman

      They don’t get to just take players. It doesn’t work that way.

      • mryankee

        Yes I know this but we do not know if or what any offer was for Chapman. I was saying if they made a better offer would he have taken it?

        • Rick in Boston

          Maybe, but that would mean the Yankees spending $10 million-plus on a guy who might not be able to pitch this year for the major league team. And that’s still not a guarantee that he would want to play for the Yankees since he wouldn’t have the same opportunity to pitch in the majors as early as he will with the Reds.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          I was saying if they made a better offer would he have taken it?

          Yes, but it’s moot. We weren’t going to top a 30M offer for an uber-raw lefty when we already have several high-priced veterans and several quality young pitchers.

        • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

          But at what point do you stop? The Reds gave him a ton of money, and he’s extremely risky. This isn’t signing CC Sabathia, it’s paying $30 million+ for a lottery ticket. The last lottery ticket they bought in Cuba didn’t cash in.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

            And the last lottery ticket from Japan we bought also didn’t cash in.

      • Thomas

        This summer, Liam Neeson returns as Bryan Mills in Taken 2: The Aroldis Chapman Story.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

          Gregg Easterbrook’s TMQ:

          Scenes in which the hero beats up and knocks out or kills others in mere seconds, usually with the first punch, have become endemic in Hollywood, and are part of the pure-nonsense art form — considering that most professional heavyweight prizefighters have never knocked anyone out with a single first punch. In “Mission Impossible III,” Tom Cruise knocked out three huge guys in mere seconds, sending each of them to unconsciousness with a single punch. On “Fringe,” a woman was shown killing a man with a single gesture that snapped his head: The woman had no superpowers or super-strength, and was even slightly built. On “Battlestar Galactica,” at one point Adama and Tigh, both in their 60s with paunches, in mere seconds beat up two muscular young space marines — who were wearing body armor! In “The Dark Knight,” the Joker kills a man by stabbing him with a ball-point pen: The man falls to the ground instantly dead. In “Taken,” Liam Neeson required mere seconds to kill five men, all of them armed. Neeson had no gun; all of them dropped to the ground instantly dead from a single punch.

          http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ortCat=nfl
          (The bit immediately before this about “24” is even better, but too long to post here.)

  • mryankee

    If the Yankees made an offer at all? I am saying he would have a good sign for the Yankees. In terms of what was best for him? The Reds is probably true. I do wonder if the Yankees made a better offer which way he would have went?

    • http://mystiqueandaura.com Steve H

      Don’t worry about it, if the Yankees had signed him he’d be rated very poorly anyway by the scouts.

      • Tom Zig

        Ietc

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

      If the Reds and Yankees made identical offers, he’d still probably pick the Reds, since they offer him a quicker path to the majors (and since they’re less likely to derail his development plan for a short-term bullpen fix).

      We’d have to have outbid the Reds to have signed him.

    • radnom

      You probably take the most money now. Counting on still being a valuable major league caliber pitcher in 4-5 years, when you havn’t even thrown a pitch in the majors is a pretty big gamble.

  • Marc

    I’ll let all 3 RAB guys kick me in the junk if Bleich is hitting 95.

    • Tom Zig

      the 22-year-old’s velocity flirted with 95 last season

      What does that even mean? Did he touch 95 in a seductive manner?

      • Jack

        A.J. Burnett: (elbows Joba, gestures over to 95). You see that? I’m hitting that.

        • Angelo

          IETC

    • CountryClub

      Mark Newman said that he was throwing 92-94 last yr (interview can be found on Lohud). They were happy with the increase in velocity and not worried about the lack of control. He said it’s common for this to happen when a pitcher 1st sees an uptick in velocity.

      They think the control will return this year. Lets hope the velocity stays the same.

  • FL Yank

    All of this gets me very excited for DotF.

    /massively understated.

  • Ted Nelson

    I’m not so sure that the Yankees can’t possibly match what they did in terms of player development in the mid-90s. Best case: Joba = Mo, Hughes = Pettitte, Montero = Jeter, Romine = Posada, and maybe Slade = Bernie. That would be the wildly best case, but it’s certainly possible (if not those exact guys there are other candidates). Joba may never become as dominant as Mo, but he can be one of the best closers in baseball for a longtime. As many incredibly clutch moments as Jeter has had, Montero has the *potential* to be a better overall hitter. If they wanted to throw around their weight in the Cuban market they could also have “developed” top prospects at lefty starter (Chapman) and SS (Hechevarria or Iglesias).

    Is there really no other team that’s developed two HOFers and 3 very good starters in a decade? I find that very hard to believe. In the modern era they may have had to trade them away for financial reasons.