Archive for March, 2010
2010 Season Preview: Strength from the back end
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During their run through October in 2009, the Yankees made headlines for their pitching. Not only did their starters excel, throwing few clunkers in the 15 games it took the Yanks to grab their 27th headline, but they ran through the Twins, Angels and Phillies while employing just three starters. It was impressive, but it underscored a weakness in the back end of the Yankee rotation.
To address that problem, Brian Cashman made a pair of moves with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain waiting in the wings. The initial no-brainer was to re-sign Andy Pettitte to a one-year, $11.75-million. Instead of debating about retirement, Pettitte, coming off a season in which he won the clinching games for the AL East, ALDS, ALDCS and World Series, finalized his deal in early December. The second move was a big one. On December 22, the Yanks sent Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino to the Braves for Javier Vazquez. The righty last threw a pitch for the Yanks in the 2004 ALCS, and his return to the Bronx offers him a shot at pressure-free redemption.
With these two in tow for the third and fourth starter spots, the Yankees can mix and match with the best of them. The rotation will be fronted by CC and A.J., a lefty and a righty, with Andy Pettitte, lefty, and Javier Vazquez, a righty, picking up the slack. With four veterans in place, each capable of throwing over 190 innings, the Yanks can use their fifth starter as a no-pressure spot for one of the kids, and if this rotation isn’t the best in the game, it’s certainly in the top five.
Pre-season accolades sound well and good, but what can we expect from Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez? The doubters among us may be tempted to look at the negatives. Pettitte, after all, will turn 38 in June and has had a minor history of elbow problems. Vazquez had a stellar year in the NL in 2009, but he left New York after falling apart in 2004. Yankee fans remember him for surrendering a Johnny Damon Grand Slam in a no-win situation and not his 10-5 first half that netted him an All Star game appearance.
First, let’s tackle Pettitte. In 2009, Andy made 32 starts and went 14-8 over 194.2 regular season innings. He had a 4.16 ERA and struck out 148 while walking 76. In the postseason, he threw 30.2 more innings and sported an ERA of 3.52. His 2010 projections are rosy indeed:
Basically, as one of the Yanks’ mid-rotation starters — the labels third or fourth don’t really matter — Pettitte is expected to regress slightly. We could see the regular season ERA tick up by approximately 0.10 runs while the innings, strike out and walk rates dip by a start or so. If Pettitte can match his projections while pitching in the AL East, the Yankees would be thrilled.
So what to look for in Pettitte’s 2010? Well, the biggest concern for him is the way he approaches pitching in Yankee Stadium. Early on last year, Andy was vocal about his dislike of the new ballpark, and it showed in his numbers. His road ERA was 3.71 while his home mark was 4.59. He surrendered 70 percent of his home runs at home, and opponents OPS’d nearly .130 points higher in the Bronx. At home, Pettitte will have to be a different pitcher to enjoy greater success, and in 2010, we’ll see if he can continue to pull a Mike Mussina and reinvent himself as a strategic thrower. Knowing that he can’t throw the fastball past too many hitters today, he’s well on his way to that goal.
And then we have Javier Vazquez. In 2009, he was great. He went 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting. He threw 219.1 innings, struck out 238 and walked just 44. By issuing so few free passes, the 20 home runs he allowed didn’t come back to bite him. He is, however, third on the active home runs list, and that moniker Home Run Javy isn’t undeserved. His 2010 looks fantastic on paper.
The projections expect a top season for Javier Vazquez and numbers that would make him the team’s second best starter. The 23 home runs allowed may be on the optimistic side, but if he throws 204.1 innings with 196 strike outs and a 3.60 ERA, the fans would embrace him. For Javy, though, the key will be the bases on balls. Pitching at Yankee Stadium, he will, for better or worse, give up his fair share of long balls, but if he can limit the damage, much the better.
In a way, the Yankees are taking a gamble on their third and fourth starter tandem this year. The team could have opted to re-up with Pettitte and slot in both Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes in the fourth and fifth spots. At some point, after all, the team is going to have to develop its own pitchers and give the kids a chance to throw enough innings for a full season’s worth of work. On the other hand, when the team tried that in 2008, it backfired before April was over.
So the Yankees will head into 2010 with two guys pitching in their walk years occupying the middle spots of the rotation. We might be seeing Andy Pettitte’s final year in baseball. We might be watching Javier Vazquez’s redemption tour in New York City. We might worry about regressions and injuries, but that comes with the pitching territory across the board. The Yankees needed an arm to take the innings pressure off of CC, A.J. and Andy after a long 2009, and that’s Javier Vazquez’s job. There are worse men for the position. With two veterans in the back end, the Yanks’ rotation is sitting pretty for 2010.
AP Photo of Javier Vazquez by Kathy Willens. AP Photo of Andy Pettitte by Elise Amendola.
RAB Bracket Busters Reminder
Posted by: | CommentsIn case you missed it, we’ve got a Tourney Pick’em Group on Yahoo!, so if you think you know your college hoops, sign up and compete for bragging rights against your fellow RAB readers. Here’s the sign up info…
Group ID: 99692
Password: riveraveblues
The games start this afternoon, so you have until 12:20pm ET today to register and get your brackets in. Good luck. You’re gonna need it.
Competition or not, Joba and Hughes a bright spot this week
Posted by: | CommentsFor a team with not many issues at stake this spring, the Yankees continue to generate headlines. We discussed this a bit yesterday morning. After Phil Hughes pitched well the headlines declared him solidly in the fifth starter race, perhaps the leader. As a bonus, we got plenty of headlines on Joba Chamberlain‘s scheduled start, most noting that it was his last chance to remain a rotation consideration. He relished the opportunity, pitching very well and even needing a bullpen session afterwards because he was so efficient during the game. So where does this leave us?
Probably in the same place we were when the week started. Sure, both Chamberlain and Hughes instilled confidence in us, if not the Yankees’ brass, by pitching well in their appearances. Spring stats still don’t count, but even so no one wants to see their promising young pitchers get rocked, especially by the substitutes in the late innings. But, same as yesterday, I wonder if the starts had any real impact on the decision.
If there really is a competition — if the Yankees will use spring performances as one criteria for deciding who pitches behind Javy Vazquez — I’m not sure whether the results made the Yankees lean one way or another. If one of the two had pitched poorly perhaps it would have swayed them one way or another. But they both pitched well, so again, if they’re making the decision based on this it would seem that both Hughes and Chamberlain are on even ground. Perhaps Chamberlain would win the tiebreaker, since he faced presumably better hitters. But, as I said yesterday, I’m not sure the Yankees are evaluating the race on these terms.
However they are doing it, they have to be happy with what they’ve seen over the past few days. Both Hughes and Chamberlain still have challenges ahead. Joba, for instance, will face the Phillies starters next time around rather than their scrubs. Hughes will likely get a similar chance next week. Aceves will also get another audition in the next couple of days. If it’s a real competition, we could learn a bit in the next five days. If not, well, hopefully we’ll just enjoy some quality exhibition performances.
The obligatory Elijah Dukes post
Posted by: | CommentsAs you’ve probably heard by now, the Nationals unexpected released Elijah Dukes yesterday morning, apparently after weeks of trying to off-load him in a trade. GM Mike Rizzo maintains that the move was strictly baseball related, however he also noted that shedding Dukes and his off-the-field issues will certainly benefit the team. “The clubhouse will be more united,” Rizzo said. “We’ll have a better feel around the ballclub. We’ll gain just by that alone.”
Clearly, Rizzo feels that having Dukes around had a negative impact on the team. It’s no secret that he’s a troubled person with a scary background that includes at least three arrests for battery, one for assault, and of course the infamous “You dead, dawg” incident. The Nationals went to great lengths to keep him in check after acquiring him from Tampa prior to the 2008 season, including hiring an ex-cop to the made up position of “Special Assistant: Player Concerns” to keep Dukes out of trouble by accompanying him wherever he went.
So after all that, why would I want the Yankees to sign him?
Right now, the Yanks have as good of a “clubhouse culture” as they’ve had in years, and while I can understand not wanting to poison that with a person like Dukes, I think this is exactly the kind of support system that could help him thrive. Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada provide the tough love, A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher would allow him to loosen up and be himself, and even guys like Alex Rodriguez and Joba Chamberlain, who’ve had their fair share of off-the-field troubles, can help him relate. I hate to bring race into it, but CC Sabathia and Curtis Granderson are two African American guys widely considered to be class acts and great people, and I can’t help but think they would be a positive influence on Dukes.
Of course, that’s just me speculating. I know nothing about Dukes and his personality other than what we assume based on his troubles, and who knows how receptive the team would be to having someone like that round for six-plus months of the year. Darryl Strawberry and Doc Gooden came aboard in the mid-90′s after their off-the-field problems, and while that was a different situation because they both had strong track records in the big leagues and problems that were self-destructive, they were welcomed because they could help them on the field. More recently, A-Rod and Jason Giambi went through the ringer and came out better for it.
Of course, none of this would be worth it if Dukes was unable to contribute something on the field better than what the Yankees already have in-house. He’s a freak athlete that was a legit prospect at linebacker with NFL potential before deciding to try his hand at baseball out of high school, and that athleticism affords him tremendous bat speed and power potential. That power is evident in Duke’s .180 IsoP in 970 big league plate appearances, which is on par with what notable mashers like Carlos Lee and Shin-Shoo Choo put up last year. He also has a selectively aggressive approach, meaning he’s more than happy to work the count, but will jump all over something early in the count if he likes it. All of his offensive prowess was on display in 2008, when he put up a .382 wOBA and accumulated 2.8 WAR in just 81 games.
On the defensive side of the ball, Dukes is capable of manning all three outfield spots, though he doesn’t have an much range as you’d expect from someone with his kind of athleticism. His arm is strong, but it’s clear the majority of his value lies in his bat. Leg injuries have been a problem in recent years, as Dukes has missed a total of 108 days in the past two years with hamstring issues in both legs. Hopefully that’s something that can be ironed out, or at least controlled, with a better conditioning program.
CHONE projects a .358 wOBA for Dukes in 2010, which is better than anything projected for Brett Gardner or Randy Winn. His projected 2.1 WAR is identical to Gardner’s, though he’s going to do it with his bat and Gardner will do it with his glove. If nothing else, he’s a massive upgrade over Marcus Thames and/or Jamie Hoffmann as the fifth outfielder. With just two years of service time, Dukes was slated to make $440,000 before the Nationals cut him, and that’s about what it’ll take to sign him. He also has minor league options remaining, which always come in handy. And, on top of all this, it would be an extremely easy to move to back out of. If Dukes acts up at all, they can cut him and lose nothing but a few hundred grand.
The Yankees are not above giving second chances, and given the personnel in the clubhouse right now, I think this would be the time to try to cash in on Dukes’ talent. The Nationals are in a different place than the Yanks right now, which is why they parted ways with him. They’re trying to change an entire culture of losing that’s deeply entrenched within the franchise, and they felt getting rid of Dukes and his off the field issues were part of the process of changing that losing culture. His past is ugly, absolutely, but there’s nothing that can be done about it now. If he’s willing to put the work in, he could certainly help the Yankees. And the Yankees could certainly help him.
Photo Credit: Gregory Smith, AP
Open Thread: Joba states his case
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The internets were abuzz this morning with commentary about how Phil Hughes had grabbed hold of the fifth starter’s job following his shutout performance last night, which in turn meant that Joba Chamberlain‘s career as a starter was on borrowed time. There was talk about how he needed to man up, how he could end up in the bullpen or even in Triple-A, and there was a sense that the obituaries on his time as a big league starter were already written. But then something strange happened today.
He pitched well.
The box score shows three innings of one run ball with three strikeouts, but that doesn’t include the unofficial 1-2-3 bottom of the ninth in which Joba struck out two more. The run came in his first inning of work, when a well-placed blooper got past a diving Kevin Russo for a double, and a routine single by the next batter plated the run. After hitting 94 with his fastball in his previous start, there apparently was no stadium gun to get an idea of how he was throwing today. Regardless, he was impressive.
“Outstanding,” said Girardi of Joba’s outing after the game. “Worked quickly. Attacked the zone. He’s got to go out and throw more, and that’s what you want to see. Quality.”
This purported competition for the fifth starter’s spot is now three appearances old for everyone. It’s only March 17th, and all five candidates have at least two outings left before a winner must be declared. Hughes pitched well, Joba pitched well, Al Aceves has pitched well, even Sergio Mitre has pitched well. This thing’s far from over, folks.
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Here’s tonight’s open thread. If you’ve managed to get into one of our six fantasy baseball leagues, do us all a favor and post your team name in the comments, so everyone can chat about their strategies and what not. The Devils, Nets, and Knicks are all in action, so have a blast.
Photo Credit: Gene J. Puskar, AP
RAB on The Shore Sports Report
Posted by: | CommentsJust a reminder, my weekly appearance on The Shore Sports Report with Mike Krenek and Joe Giglio is coming up at 5:05pm ET. You can listen in on either FOX Sports 1030 AM or WOBM 1160 AM, and I’m willing to bet that you’ll be able to stream it online via one of those links as well.
Why the Yanks won’t sign Joe Mauer
Posted by: | CommentsAt a position typically short on heavy hitters, Joe Mauer stands out. Over the past three seasons he has posted a .392 wOBA, the best among catchers. Jorge Posada comes pretty close with a .391 mark, but Mauer has about 500 more plate appearances over that span. Behind them, the list gets a bit thin. Only five catchers have produced over 10 WAR from 2007 through 2009 — Brian McCann, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez in addition to Mauer and Posada. When a team finds a heavy hitting catcher, it is in their best interest to hold on tightly.
Photo credit: Kevin P. Casey/AP
This is why I still believe that the Twins will work out an extension with Mauer. There’s just too much at stake for the team. If Mauer leaves, then what? They’ve already locked up the complementary talent, Denard Span for the next five years, Justin Morneau for the next four, and even Michael Cuddyer for the next two. What is the complementary talent, though, without the star? Furthermore, what better use for revenue generated from their new stadium? It seems all signs point to an extension.
Of course, just because the signs point one way doesn’t mean it will happen. Anything can still happen at this point, and that includes Mauer hitting the free agent market this winter. If that’s the case he’ll command more than $100 million, and possibly get closer to $200 million. With numbers that large, it’s clear that the big market teams will play the largest role in the bidding. Some are already connecting the two parties.
If Mauer does hit the free agent market, though, I don’t expect the Yankees to outbid the Red Sox for him. They’ll make a play, of course, but I don’t expect them to use their resources that way. Yes, Mauer is one of the most valuable players in the game, but the Yankees have spent the past three or so years filing their farm system with catchers. After all that, why go and use an enormous portion of your resources to sign one in free agency?
As it stands, the Yankees have $144 million locked into the 2011 payroll before they work out contracts for Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. They’ll also have arbitration cases for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. In other words, they could be near $185 million for just 13 players — and that doesn’t include Javy Vazquez or Andy Pettitte. At that point they’d probably need at least one starting pitcher. Other needs could crop up during the season, including left field.
Yet at catcher the Yankees would have Jorge Posada under contract for one more season. They’d also have Jesus Montero with a year of AAA under his belt, and Austin Romine with a season of AA — and possibly with some AAA experience. Below them they feature a number of low-level catchers, too, including J.R. Murphy and Gary Sanchez. Signing Mauer to a six- or seven-year deal would render these developing players essentially useless to the organization. Wouldn’t that render a waste the past few years of focus on catcher?
None of this downplays the immediate impact Mauer would have on the Yankees. As the second best catcher over the past three years heads into his sunset years, he would be replaced by the best. It would allow the Yankees to trade Montero for a pitcher, filling one of the rotation vacancies. It would also give them more time to let the other catchers develop, perhaps also using them as trade bait — or even as a oft-used backup in order to help limit Mauer’s workload. For all these reasons, I’d never rule out the Yankees signing Mauer.
Rather than adding another nine-figure contract to the ledger, though, I think the Yankees will focus on pitching and left field, once again, next winter. They’ve put a lot into developing a next generation crop of catchers, so why would they make such an enormous outlay to sign one in free agency, when players are at their most expensive? Why not use that money to sign a player at a thinner position? That’s what I think the Yankees will do. I’d love to see Mauer in pinstripes, but given the current structure of the organization it appears their money would be better spent elsewhere.
RAB Fantasy Baseball League (Part Six)
Posted by: | CommentsAlrighty, here’s the moment you’ve all been waiting for. The settings are exactly the same as before, so go to Yahoo and sign up using the League ID and password found here. The settings are exactly the same as the other leagues, and the maximum moves per week is set at eight, even though the screen cap of the settings say otherwise. Hopefully this takes care of everyone, six leagues is pretty insane.
Marte leaves game after getting hit by comebacker
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (4:37pm): Marte’s fine, just a bruise. He was working out after the game. Phew.
2:31pm: Via Sweeny Murti, Damaso Marte left today’s game after taking a Ryan Howard line drive to the back. The Yanks’ primary lefty reliever allowed two hits and a homer to the first three batters he faced before Howard ended his day. It was Marte’s first action of the spring, and if he misses any time, it’s unlikely he’ll to be ready for Opening Day. Boone Logan‘s chances of making the team just went up big time.
2010 Draft: Mid-to-late round arms
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Ever since taking over as scouting director in 2005, Damon Oppenheimer has provided the Yankees with a steady stream of low cost pitching talent to plug holes in the bullpen and use as trade bait. Most of those arms have been acquired in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft, making those selections that much more rewarding. In 2006 he landed Mark Melancon (9th round), Dan McCutchen (13th), and David Robertson (17th), then in 2008 he drafted D.J. Mitchell (10th) and David Phelps (14th), and last year it was Sean Black (7th), Gavin Brooks (9th), and Graham Stoneburner (14th).
The general idea was to take polished college starters with good enough stuff, and hope pitching guru Nardi Contreras can take them to the next level. As more and more teams are becoming aggressive in the draft, it’s getting harder and harder to find valuable pieces after the 3rd or 4th or 5th round. Oppenheimer’s approach has yielded quality relievers and decent trade pieces, which is exactly what a big money club like the Yankees need.
Surely the Yankees will deploy the same strategy this June, using those usually fruitless middle rounds to replenish the pipeline with more useful arms that should climb the ladder quickly. Here’s a few such players the Yankees could target…
Bryan Harper, LHP, College of Southern Nevada
Projected top pick Bryce Harper isn’t the only baseball prospect in his family, his older brother Bryan is a pretty good player himself. After posting a 6.68 ERA with a 15-22 K/BB ratio in 32.1 IP as a freshman at Cal State Northridge, Harper transferred to CSN to help his brother transition to college ball when he should have been a junior in high school. He’s emerged as the Coyotes best starter, carving up the wood bat league to the tune of a 2.39 ERA with a 41-17 K/BB ratio in 26.1 IP.
A physical specimen like his brother, the elder Harper is projectable at 6-foot-5 and just 190 lbs. Obviously he needs to work on his command and control, but the raw stuff is there. His fastball generally sits 89-91 – less impressive than his brother’s heat, actually – and his second pitch is a big breaking curve that is a put-away pitch some days and a show-me offering on others. A changeup has been in the works as well. Harper needs to become more consistent with all of his pitches, and that will come with experience and pro instruction.
Draft eligible because of the transfer to a junior college, Harper is likely an early double-digit round selection. Teams with the top overall pick usually select that player’s bother if he’s draft eligible as a bit of a favor and also to provide a certain level of comfort. Most recently, the Rays drafted Jeremy Beckham in the 17th round after taking his younger brother Tim first overall in 2008. If the team that takes Bryce doesn’t draft Bryan later on, he’ll be a very tough sign and will likely end up following through on his commitment to South Carolina.
Photo Credit: Screen cap’d from here
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
