Yankees win the sAL East

Open Thread: Regular Season Reminders
Scouts and talent evaluators discuss Jeter's position

If we’ve learned anything over the past six months, it’s that spreadsheets love the Yankees. Back in October, on the eve of the ALCS against the Angels, we found out that the Yankees won the sALCS. Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus ran simulations of the ALCS and then World Series and the Yankees came out on top more frequently than their opponents. This time SG at Replacement Level has done it, and you can expect a familiar result.

He explains his methodology, which involves running five projection systems through 1,000 Diamond Mind simulations. He puts them all together and outputs projected standings. You can see the NL results at the methodology link, and you can see the AL here. The Yankees won the AL East 40.7 percent of the time, with the Red Sox winning 30.3 percent. We ran the numbers for many of these projection systems in our 2010 season preview series, and little, other than Javy’s aggressive projection, stood out. Everything’s relative, though.

SG did a fantastic job here, writing up capsules for each team and creating some neat pie charts. I’ll share my favorite with you. Head over to see the rest.

When I read these posts I couldn’t help but think of my favorite FJM ever.

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Open Thread: Regular Season Reminders
Scouts and talent evaluators discuss Jeter's position
  • bexarama

    but but but I thought we already lost the spreadsheet AL East and had given up on the season!

    Also, the old, tacky Tampa Bay logo/font/color will never cease to amuse me

  • Ellis

    How do the Orioles win 3% of the time?

    • Dirty Pena

      Matusz, Bergeson, Hernandez, (eventually) Tillman all pitch well. Millwood and Guthrie pitch average (or get injured, opening the door for Tillman.) Wieters lives up to the hype, Atkins bounces back to medicrity, Roberts is Roberts, Adam Jones, Markakis, Reimold, Pie have good years, etc etc. It’s not THAT far fetched.

      Oh yeah also the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays suffer debilitating injuries and/or age-related downturns.

  • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

    I always wonder about that 1 percent of the time when the Blue Jays win the sAL East. What has to happen or go wrong for Toronto to emerge victorious — everything?

    • bexarama

      Roy Halladay becomes terribly confused and switches everyone’s uniforms from Philly with everyone’s uniforms from Toronto?

    • Dirty Pena

      Jose Bautista raises his career OBP by .100 and for the first time steals more than 6 bases.

      /Seriously, what in Mo’s name is he doing as a leadoff hitter?

    • whozat

      Yeah, literally everything:

      1) Jeter, Posada, ARod, Drew, Ortiz, Cameron, Lackey, Beckett, Burnett, Pettitte, Upton, Pena, Soriano, Roberts, Rivera and Okajima get hurt and/or old n’shitty

      2) Cano, Hughes, Joba, Buchholz, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Scutaro, Wieters, Jones, and the whole young Rays and Orioles pitching staves take a step back/suffer growing pains

      3) All the Jays pitchers coming off injury rebound in a big way, Hill is for real, Lind and Snyder take a big step forward, 2007 Wells shows up, Overbay produces again and…I guess that’s enough since everyone else in the division died.

      If 2010 happened a thousand times…a lot of that could happen a couple times, right?

    • Joey

      That was the first thing I thought of also, how the hell did the Jays win even 1% of the time?

    • Kevin G.

      Drunk Jays Fans become owners of MLB?

    • http://twitter.com/JamalG_BB Jamal G.

      Something along the lines of the following: http://insider.espn.go.com/blo.....st?id=1516

    • http://cid-e3a022289d65b5c0.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/Assorted/foul.jpg Andy in NYC aka the Other Oofys

      What has to happen or go wrong for Toronto to emerge victorious

      Those fake umpires in Toronto kidnap the real ones, clone themselves, and officiate every single Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Orioles game?

  • Dirty Pena

    Sigh. Fire Joe Morgan- talk about going out on top. It’s still in my tabs at the top of the page and I never want to take it down. Fucking Community or Parks and Recreation or whatever.

    • bexarama

      I read that site pretty much all the way through a couple of weeks ago. It’s incredible. Everything there is so unbelievably funny and smart and insightful and well-written. And that says a lot, considering they called Pettitte a hypocritical, sanctimonious douchebag in one post, and they’re pretty open Jeter haters. You wouldn’t think I would like a site like that, but it’s like my favorite baseball-related site ever.

      • Dirty Pena

        They are Red Sox fans.

        • bexarama

          I know. Just saying.

          • Dirty Pena

            Yeah, I mean I totally agree. They are Red Sox fans and it’s awesome, which is saying a ton.

            • Dirty Pena

              Sidebar: I don’t hate those shows, I just wish they didn’t come at the expense of FJM. Damn you Mose Schrute!

              • bexarama

                heh, did you ever see the deleted scene from The Office episode when Jim and Pam visit Dwight’s farm, and his cousin (who’s Ken Tremendous, not like you didn’t know that) is jumping up and down on a trampoline and yelling “GO YANKEES!”?

                • Dirty Pena

                  Nope, that’s pretty funny though. Must’ve been painful for KT. Dwight’s a known SWB Yankees fan, so they could’ve meant that (or at least I’m sure that’s how KT would explain it.)

                • http://twitter.com/beertravelers Matt Tunnell

                  At least we still have fake Michael Kay

              • Kevin G.

                Wait, why did those shows come at the expense of FJM?

                • Dirty Pena

                  It’s Parks and Recreation, not Community. Two of them (the main two) write for it.

  • pat

    SG is like a freaking mad scientist.

    • Dirty Pena

      Heh, that was the first Yankee blog I read which eventually led me over here.

    • http://mystiqueandaura.com/ JMK the Overshare’s Mystique and Aura

      Hadn’t really seen it until now. Some good stuff. I’ll take another look tomorrow morning before I neglect my work responsibilities by partaking in the League 6 draft.

      Going to be a real productive Friday.

    • Accent Shallow

      Agreed.

      I’d read that site regardless of team, though. Probably the most transparent view of projections you can get.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a The Large Sample Size

    Is there a reason the pie chart has the old green “Devil Rays” logo?

    It’s 2010, man. Roll with the new.

  • smurfy

    You want modern, man? Nice show, but the 3D perspective makes the Yankees’ 40% looks barely bigger than the Red Sox’ fancy slice.

    “bout like a lot of these extrapolated “stats.”

    And how about the cartoon cat peeking out the Oriole’s slice? He probably ate the Blue Jay, too.

    • SG

      Nice show, but the 3D perspective makes the Yankees’ 40% looks barely bigger than the Red Sox’ fancy slice.

      I guess it’s a good thing you’re smart enough to understand that 41% > 30% then.