Archive for May, 2010
Are the Yanks swinging earlier in counts?
Posted by: | CommentsIn his postgame notes from last night, Journal News beat writer Chad Jennings observed that the Yanks are swinging at pitches earlier in counts. He does note that he doesn’t have the numbers to back it up, and after scouring splits of every sort this morning I couldn’t find much either. What’s interesting, though, is Joe Girardi’s reaction to Jennings’s observation.
“At times guys will do that,” Girardi said. “If you go up and take the first pitch all the time, just throw strike one and now you’re ahead of our hitters. I think hitters can’t fall into just one pattern of hitting. At times they have to be aggressive.”
The Yankees have long been a patient team. For years they featured hitters like Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu, guys who would work the count and wait for their pitch. Even after those three departed the team still features a number of patient hitters. Nick Swisher has long been known for working long counts, and Brett Gardner has emerged as someone who can not only take a pitch, but also foul off two-strike pitches not to his liking.
As Girardi said, this comes with unintended consequences. Aggressive pitchers could throw one over for strike one and pitch ahead for the rest of the at-bat. I’m sure we all remember games where the Yankees faced someone they should have beaten — or in my case, regularly beat — but can’t get anything going because the pitcher won’t play their game. I remember a start a few years ago where Josh Beckett threw strike one nearly every time, and the Yanks hitters just couldn’t keep up when he threw them a steady diet of breaking pitches later in the AB.
Has this changed lately, though? Looking at the team’s pitches per plate appearance, that doesn’t exactly appear to be the case. In April the team saw 3.98 pitches per plate appearances, and that number is down to just 3.91 in May, and 3.93 in the past week. That doesn’t represent much of a change. Most of it, I’m sure, comes from Nick Johnson‘s absence, though a number of guys, including Marcus Thames, have worked a few deeper counts in May.
Of course, pitches per plate appearance doesn’t tell the whole story. Guys might be swinging at the first pitch and missing, or otherwise fouling it away. They’d still be swinging at the first pitch, but they might end up working a deeper count because nothing happened on that first pitch. Another place we can look is FanGraphs’ first-pitch strikes. This is defined as either the ball being put in play or the count being 0-1. Flaws abound here, too, as a called strike one counts. We’re looking for swinging.
Just because it’s interesting, the Yankees saw a first-pitch strike in 57.9 percent of their April plate appearances, but just 55.7 percent in May. This suggests, if nothing else, that the Yankees are taking ball one a bit more in May. What we don’t know, and what I can’t readily find, is how those strike ones break down. Maybe there were a lot more called strike ones in April, leading the Yanks to be a bit more aggressive in May and swing at strike one more. That’s data I just can’t find, though.
Anecdotally, it would seem to be a positive if the Yankees are adjusting and swinging earlier in the count. As a general principle the correct approach is to remain patient, but if pitchers try to take advantage and start slipping by strike one, the hitters have to adjust. From what Jennings has observed and Girardi has confirmed, the team is doing just that. The data we have doesn’t exactly line up with that anecdote, but we also don’t have a perfect measure.
Injuries just a small part of the problem
Posted by: | CommentsJust 4-8 in their last dozen games, the Yankees have hit their first real skid of the 2010 season. We all knew it was going to happen at some point, but that doesn’t make it any less disappointing. Considering the opponents (Red Sox and Rays, among others) and the fact that the majority of those games were played at home, and yeah, it’s frustrating. All of the recent injuries provide a built-in excuse, because what team wouldn’t be weakened by losing their starting catcher, two starting outfielders, and starting designated hitter?
Of course, the injuries aren’t everything. Every team has injuries, it’s part of the game. The Rays don’t have J.P. Howell or Kelly Shoppach, Boston’s missing Jacoby Ellsbury and Mike Cameron, it happens. In fact, even without Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, and Nick Johnson in the lineup, the Yankees still managed to score 47 runs during the seven game homestand. And that’s with Mark Teixeira enduring an 0-for-14 stretch. When you score nearly seven runs per game, you should win.
Instead, the pitching staff wasn’t able to hold up it’s end of the bargain, allowing 45 runs during that stretch. Most of that blame goes to the bullpen, which has allowed 20 runs in the last five games (16.1 IP). That’s not quite Arizona Diamondbacks bad, but it’s bad. Even more damning is that most of those runs were charged to Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera, who are supposed to be rocks at the end of games. Maybe it’s not damning, maybe that’s too harsh, because it’s certainly reasonable to expect those two to perform better over a 162 game season. Remember, if they did their jobs on Sunday and Tuesday, it’s a 5-2 homestand instead of a 3-4 homestand.
(Devil’s Advocate: If Jonathan Papelbon does his job on Monday, it’s a 2-5 homestand)
The starters, so dominant early in the season, were just mediocre the last time through the rotation. Sergio Mitre (5 IP, 1 R) and CC Sabathia (7 IP, 1 R) did their jobs, but Phil Hughes (5 IP, 5 R), A.J. Burnett (6.2 IP, 6 R), and Andy Pettitte (5 IP, 7 R) were simply not good enough to win. The defense didn’t help much either, as Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Marcus Thames all contributed significant misplays during the recent schnied. The Yanks still have a sub-4.00 team ERA (3.93, to be exact) and have allowed the fourth fewest runs in the league this season, but you wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching them over the last week or so.
Whenever the Yankees play (and more importantly, lose to) the Rays, we’re always subjected to that usual schtick about them being younger and more athletic and holding track meets on the bases and what not, and of course it’s true. The Rays are a special team, they make everyone look old. It’s not something unique to the Yanks. If the pitching had done it’s job, limiting Tampa to even just five runs a game, the series plays out much differently.
Injuries are certainly taking a toll on the Yanks’ roster, but not let’s not fall into the trap of using that as a scapegoat. The players that are healthy, specifically the pitching staff, haven’t been up to par of late. It’s not a fatal flaw or anything, it’s just a rut. It happens to every team, and it’ll happen to the Yankees again at some point this summer. They’re too talented to pitch as poorly as they did during this homestand for a prolonged stretch of time. The good news is that 16 of their next 22 games come against last place teams, so the ship could be righted in very short order.
Just don’t use the injuries as an excuse for their recent poor play, it’s lazy and a total cop-out.
Adams, Romine & Laird power Trenton to another win
Posted by: | CommentsJack Rye has been placed on the temporary inactive list, which means he’ll only be out for a few days. Might be going to a wedding or something this weekend. Meanwhile, the Yanks signed catcher Rene Rivera for Triple-A depth following the injury to Jorge Posada and Chad Moeller’s subsequent call up. He was playing in an independent league, and last appeared in the big leagues way back in 2006.
Triple-A Scranton‘s game was suspended in the 4th inning due to rain. They’ll finish it off tomorrow, but here’s the box score. Big story: Ivan Nova left the game in the 3rd inning after getting hit by a comebacker off the bat of Pedro Alvarez. Not sure how serious the injury is, he might have left as a precaution for all we know. It’s something to watch for, though.
Game 41: Splitting ain’t bad
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Photo credit: Henry Ray Abrams/AP
If the Yankees can work a win tonight and split the short series with the Rays, they’ll own an 8-5 record (.615) against their two biggest AL East rivals. That would be a huge coup at this point in the season, especially because 1) the team is far from its healthiest, and 2) they don’t meet either opponent for over a month. Thankfully, they have a few things going for them.
Last night’s rally bodes well for today. For those unfamiliar, this comes from Paul O’Neill, who during one game a few years ago said something I found peculiar. The Yanks were getting killed by the Sox, 9-1 entering the ninth. Keith Foulke came on for some garbage innings, and the Yanks went to town on him. Kevin Reese lef off with a single, and although the next two hitters made outs, the Yanks did manage a rally. A-Rod hit a two-run shot to make it 9-3. This is what prompted O’Neill’s comment. He said that when a team’s getting blown out and comes back to score a few in the ninth, they’re bound to make noise the next day.
Sure enough, after two more runs made it a 9-5 final, the Yanks came back and scored seven the very next day, winning despite a Scott Proctor meltdown. A-Rod hit another homer that day. That fascinated me. I’ve made it a point to keep track of these occurrences, and every single instance since then has confirmed the theory. If the Yanks have been getting blown out and end up scoring runs in the ninth, they’ve invariably come back to win the next game.
Do I believe this is an immutable law? No. But it is an interesting phenomenon. Ken Singleton said something similar last night. It doesn’t guarantee victory in any way. It’s just an interesting notation I’ve made during the past three-plus seasons.
* I’m also pretty sure that if you search through game threads, you’ll see me mention this from time to time. This is definitely not the first time I’ve mentioned and explained the O’Neill Rule in the game thread.
The Yanks will have to do it against James Shields, who has been something else lately. In his last four starts he has pitched 29 innings and has struck out 38 to just two walks. He’s allowed just seven extra base hits during those starts, only two of which have been homers. Of course, all four of those starts have come against the Mariners and Athletics. He faced the Yankees earlier this year, lasting 5.1 innings and allowing two runs. The Yanks jacked up his pitch count, though, getting him to 103 before Joe Maddon removed him.
Andy Pettitte takes the ball for the Yanks, and it couldn’t come at a better time. The Rays have had plenty of problems with lefties this season. They’re facing not only a very good lefty, but also the AL’s ERA leader at 1.79. Pettitte has been the stopper in years past, and it would be huge if he could hold the losing streak to two games.
Nick Swisher‘s back, which is great news, especially since a righty is on the mound. Thames took batting practice, and while he’s not in the lineup it doesn’t look like he’s DL-bound.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, SS
2. Brett Gardner, CF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Juan Miranda, DH
8. Francisco Cervelli, C
9. Randy Winn, LF
And on the mound, number forty-six, Andy Pettitte. Number forty-six.
Yankees recall Russo, option Melancon
Posted by: | CommentsWell we could see this one coming a mile away, it was just a question of who would be called up. Kevin Russo is your newest bench player, promoted in favor of Greg Golson and Chad Huffman. As you know, he’s capable of playing pretty much everywhere in the field, and at the very least works the count well offensively. Mark Melancon was sent back down to make room on the roster, which was obviously going to happen following yesterday’s 37 pitch outing.One of these days he’ll stick, I’m sure of it.
The moves get the Yanks down to seven relievers and four bench players, though the availability of Nick Swisher (wrist) and Marcus Thames (ankle) is still up in the air. Hooray for normalcy.
Moeller could help Jorge transition back
Posted by: | CommentsFor a player who spends half the game squatting, any kind of leg injury can be devastating. After recovering from a shoulder injury he sustained in 2008, Jorge Posada has suffered a few leg injuries, the latest a microfracture on his right toe that could keep him out for a month. The Yankees say that the three to four week timeframe is when they’ll once again have Posada available, though the man himself says he’ll be back before that. In any case, it could be a rough transition back to catcher.
As Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus (sub. required) says in his latest Under The Knife, the toe problem “tends to heal pretty cleanly,” so the Yanks needn’t worry about a prolonged recovery period. The problem they might encounter relates to Posada’s ability to catch right away. While a catcher’s squat is most readily associated with knee problems, it also puts tremendous pressure on the foot, especially the toes. That could push back Jorge’s timeline a little bit.

Photo credit: Julie Jacobson/AP
As we learned this afternoon, the Yankees will recall Chad Moeller to fill in as backup catcher. While some clamored for Jesus Montero to fill the spot, that just isn’t in the cards. Donnie Collins makes that case very well, though it takes little more than common sense to know that the Yankees won’t promote a 20-year-old who has struggled at AAA, who was recently benched for not hustling, and who is not ready to play defense at the major league level. The Yankees signed Moeller to play an emergency role, and that emergency has occurred. Yet his presence might help the lineup even after Posada’s return.
When Nick Johnson hit the DL with wrist troubles, the Yankees had a few options. They could have recalled Juan Miranda from AAA to platoon with Marcus Thames at DH. That’s what they ultimately did, but it was not the only option. The other was to add Moeller to the 40-man roster and use him as the backup catcher while Posada takes reps at DH against right-handed pitchers. At the time Posada was nursing a calf injury, so time at DH would have afforded him time to heal fully and move back behind the plate, where is bat is of more value, when he was completely ready.
The Yankees could use Moeller in a similar capacity once Posada returns from the disabled list. Since, as Carroll notes, Posada could still have trouble hitting right-handed, he would still serve as a DH against right-handed pitching, while Marcus Thames would still get reps against lefties. Posada would still be putting pressure on the toe when he runs the bases, but that won’t be nearly the level of pressure he’d place on it by hitting right-handed and catching.
The only downside is that it means Chad Moeller has to play at least once a week, and that the Yankees become more dependent on Francisco Cervelli‘s maintenance of otherworldly numbers. The alternatives, though, aren’t attractive either. They cannot afford to rush back Posada, but they also can’t live for very long without his bat in the lineup. Keeping Moeller around would help solve both problems simultaneously. It’s not efficient to carry two no-field DHs (just ask the Mariners), but it might be all the Yankees can do at this point.
Yankees recall Chad Moeller, shift Nick Johnson to 60-day DL
Posted by: | CommentsVia Jack Curry, the Yankees have recalled catcher Chad Moeller from Triple-A Scranton to help carry the load while Jorge Posada is out with a hairline fracture in a his foot. Nick Johnson was shifted to the 60-day disabled list to free up a spot on the 40-man roster. The 35-year-old Moeller was signed to a minor league deal at the end of Spring Training to mentor top prospect Jesus Montero in Scranton, and he’s hit just .207-.233-.310 in limited playing this year.
You probably remember Moeller from his 2008 stint with the team, when he hit .231-.311-.330 in 103 plate appearances. Frankie Cervelli figures to get the majority of the playing time behind the plate now, and I assume P.J. Pilittere will take Moeller’s spot in SWB.
Yankees sign Jeff Natale
Posted by: | CommentsVia Pete Cava, the Yankees have signed utility player Jeff Natale to a minor league deal, and will soon assign him to Triple-A Scranton. The 27-year-old spent five years in Boston’s farm system, where he put up a rather beastly .298-.432-.446 batting line with far more walks (281) than strikeouts (168) in 416 career games. He’s spent the majority of his career at second base, but he’s also seen time at first, short, and in the outfield over the years.
All of the injuries have a trickle down effect, thinning out Scranton’s roster as well, so Natale is a nice depth signing. If you can make contact and get on base 40% of the time, you’ll always have a chance.
Pushing the depth limits
Posted by: | CommentsWhen it was announced that Jorge Posada will miss the next month or so with a hairline fracture in his foot, it was just the latest in what has become an almost comical string of injuries. Marcus Thames spraining his ankle by stepping on his own bat during last night’s game was just the icing on the cake. It was the Yankees’ version of Luis Castillo falling down the dugout steps. That’s what they’ve been reduced too.
Ramiro Pena shouldn’t be playing the outfield. (Photo Credit: Kathy Willens, AP)
For the most part, the reserve players have done a fine job of picking up the slack as the regulars nursed whatever it is they’ve been nursing. Marcus Thames and Randy Winn have combined for a slightly above league average .334 wOBA in 97 plate appearances since Curtis Granderson hit the disabled list, which is all you could ask for from your fourth and fifth outfielders. Frankie Cervelli has started 11 of the team’s last 14 games, riding a .485 BABIP to a .424 wOBA during that stretch. That’s not going to last forever, but even if he matches his ZiPS rest of the year projection (.334 wOBA), the Yanks will be in fine shape behind the plate.
However, every team has a limit to their depth, some more than others. If Nick Swisher‘s biceps needs a few more days on the shelf, the Yanks are going to be pressed into starting Ramiro Pena or Greg Golson or Kevin Russo or Chad Huffman in the outfield with Winn and Brett Gardner. In the spreadsheet world where only numbers matter, that’s your sixth (at best), fifth, and third outfielders. Posada’s injury not only brings the return of Chad Moeller, but it pushes Cervelli into an even more prominent role. The more he plays, the sooner his production regresses back to the mean.
The pitching staff is another story all together. Andy Pettitte‘s injury forced Sergio Mitre into the rotation, creating a a revolving door in the bullpen. Injuries to Chan Ho Park and Al Aceves only compounded that. For the last two weeks or so, the last guy on the staff has been whoever was freshest in Triple-A Scranton. That’s not the way it should be. Joe Girardi should able to use the relievers he wants to use in certain spots, not the guys he has to use because of injuries and such.
There’s going to be several roster moves made today, and right now the best thing the Yankees can do is restore a semblance of normalcy. No more of this 13 pitchers with only one of three bench players actually available nonsense. As much as we want Boone Logan to go away, he’s probably going to stick around while Mark Melancon and the 37 pitches he threw last night head back to Scranton to bring the pitching staff down to a dozen. He’s going to be replaced by one of the four minor leaguers above, though who exactly is anyone’s guess. Posada hitting the DL (and Nick Johnson being transferred to the 60-day DL) create the roster room needed for Moeller.
We can dream about the Yankees signing super-versatile established big leaguers to stash away on the bench or in Triple-A should injuries take place, but that doesn’t happen in reality. This isn’t a video game; players aren’t going to accept reduced roles just because you want them to. What the Yankees had coming into the season was a good set of bench players backed up by a plethora of minor league options both on the mound and in the batter’s box, but the sheer volume of injuries have thrown these players into more prominent roles. One or two or even three injuries is one thing, but losing two starting outfielders plus your fourth outfielder plus your catcher plus your designated hitter is another story all together. The Red Sox lost two outfielders and had to trade for Jonathan Van Every to fill the hole. At least the Yanks didn’t have to stoop that low.
If you were going to define Brian Cashman‘s reign as GM in one word, it would be “patience.” He waited more than two months to pull the trigger on the Bobby Abreu trade following the injuries to Hideki Matsui and Gary Sheffield in 2006, and if he didn’t do that, Melky Cabrera never gets a chance to prove himself as an every day player. Cashman’s not going to run out to sign Jermaine Dye (who’s going to need a few weeks to get into game shape anyway), nor is he going to start pulling off trades. The players that will come off the DL in a few weeks are far better than any of the options out there.
The in-house replacements like Golson and Russo are going to have to pick up the slack in the time being, but now we’re talking about these guys playing a far more prominent role than could ever have been expected. The Yanks came into the season with solid depth, yet amazingly the limits of that depth is being stretched less than two months into the season.







