Archive for May, 2010
Rosenthal: NJ to undergo surgery
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to FoxSports’ Ken Rosenthal, Nick Johnson will undergo surgery on his right wrist. The Yanks’ erstwhile DH will be out until at least July as he recovers from the procedure. Over the weekend, we reported that the odds on Nick’s needing surgery were around 50 percent, and apparently, his wrist did not respond to a cortisone shot. Johnson, off to a slow start during his second stint for the Yanks, was hitting .167/.388/.306 before the injury, and the Yankees will now turn to Juan Miranda and a rotating list of veterans to fill the designated hitter hole. The Yanks’ lineup, as I wrote last week, is better off with a set DH, and I have to wonder if Brian Cashman is at all tempted to kick the tires on this guy.
For Nick and the Yankees, a wrist injury is both not surprising and very disappointing. If one major injury has plagued Johnson throughout his injury-plagued career, it has involved his right wrist. He missed the entire 2000 season with a right wrist injury and had surgery on the same wrist in 2008. He also suffered a left wrist injury in 2002 that carried over to 2003. Without strength in his bottom hand, the left-handed Johnson may find it hard to hit for much power if he returns later this summer.
Update (4:15 p.m.): Making this news official, the Yankees have confirmed surgery for Johnson. He’ll undergo the procedure tomorrow, and the team anticipates that it will be at least four to six weeks before Johnson resumes baseball activities. “This is not a quick fix,” Joe Girardi said to reporters. “This is going to be a while.”
Link Dump: Hughes, WPA, Draft Hype
Posted by: | CommentsYou guys ready for another thrilling round of Yankees-Red Sox? It’s only their third meeting of the season within the first 40 games, but who’s counting? Anyway, here’s some spare link to check out while you anxiously await first pitch.
I know I’m not the only one to feel this way, but next to the always-on pitch counter, Jack Curry has been the best addition to YES this season. In his latest at the dot-com, he spoke to tonight’s starter Phil Hughes about what he thinks the biggest difference is this year. “I think if you look at my raw stuff to when I was starting games this season to last season, there’s probably not that much difference,” said Phil. “I’m maybe a little bigger and stronger. But I feel what has really changed is my confidence out there and my ability to attack the strike zone. Those have been the two biggest things.”
I recommend reading the whole thing, it’s worth the time.
Yanks-Sox Through The Eyes Of WPA
Finally, someone came up with a unique way to look at the rivalry. Using WPA, Mark Simon at ESPN found the players with the biggest impact on the rivalry dating all the way back to 1995. It should be no surprise, but Manny Ramirez leads all hitters (and all players, period) with a 5.906 WPA, meaning he won just about six games all by himself. For the Yanks, the top hitter has been Alex Rodriguez (2.674 WPA), followed closely by Paul O’Neill (2.557). It drops off considerably after that. Your leaders on the mound are Mariano Rivera (3.664), Pedro Martinez (3.545), and Andy Pettitte (3.109). No one else is over two.
It’s a long read, but it’s really informative. I found it interesting how low Derek Jeter is on the list.
Nothing is more exciting to the baseball blogosphere than a promising youngster, so it’s no surprise that the draft has taken on a mind of it’s own in recent year. Trust me, it’s not an accident that the two most hyped prospects in draft history have played during the Twitter age. Over at FanGraphs, Erik Manning looked at the attrition rate of first round picks from the 1990′s, and it turns out that just 6.8% of those picks developed into true stars. Just under a quarter of them amounted to anything more than an average regular, while a whopping 63.4% busted all together.
Teams have gotten better at evaluating and developing players, but the draft is still just a crap shoot. Now it’s just an expensive crap shoot.
Phil’s first real test
Posted by: | CommentsI don’t know about you, but the best part of the 2010 season for me has been watching Phil Hughes take the ball every five days. Oh sure, a 24-13 start is great, but watching Phil deliver on all his promise has been far, far more rewarding. We dealt with the ups, the downs, the injuries, the doubters, and now our patience has been rewarded with watching him blossom into a true frontline starter.
We all know how spectacular he’s been this season, with a 1.38 ERA (1st in the AL), 2.50 FIP (3rd), and 3.61 xFIP (9th), but Hughes’ first real test of the season will come tonight against the Red Sox. It was just ten days ago that he limited that same team to two measly runs over seven innings in the most hostile of environments, but now the element of surprise is gone. Boston’s hitters have had a first hand look at Phil, so adjustments come into play.
In his first start against the Red Sox, Hughes threw 61 four-seam fastballs, 29 cutters, nine curveballs, and just one changeup. Let’s break it down a little further though…
First of all, disregard the fourth time through the order data. It consists of two pitches to Marco Scutaro to end the 7th inning. However, the pattern is obvious. Each time through the order, Phil threw fewer and fewer four-seamers and incorporated more and more cutters and curveballs. Granted, we’re talking about a small amount of curves, so perhaps we should just ignore them. But replacing those relatively straight four-seamers with a moving cutter disrupts the hitter’s timing, and that’s the name of the pitching game.
So now that the Red Sox will dig in against Hughes for the second time in a little over a week, and you can be sure they’ll dig into their memory banks to remember how they were attacked. Fastball heavily early on, more cutters later.
As always, the success doesn’t come from one individual pitch, it’s the separation between two pitches. Part of the reason why Hughes’ cutter has been so effective is because hitters also have to respect his four-seamer, and when both pitches come in at 90+ mph, there’s just not much time to adjust. However, most big leaguers can handle a fastball if they’ve seen it enough times and know it’s coming, so the first time through the order tonight will be particularly telling. Perhaps Hughes should switch it up and go with some more cut fastballs early on to “change up the scouting report,” so to speak. You might see a few more curveballs and (gasp!) changeups than last time just to mix it up a little more as well.
At this point though, the ball is in Boston’s court. Their hitters have to adjust and prove that they can handle Hughes’ fastball-cutter combo before the Yanks’ young hurler must make any changes to his approach. There’s no need to fix what isn’t yet broken. Like everyone else though, the second time through the league is going to tell us a lot more about what kind of pitcher Phil Hughes is than his first time through.
Four tickets available for tonight’s game
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s kinda short notice, but a reader has four tickets available for tonight’s Phil Hughes vs. the Red Sox game. They’re located in Section 230, Row 14, Seats 14-17, which is the second deck in left field. It’s under the Audi Club and one section over. Face value of the tickets are $60 each, so it’s $240 for all four. If interested, email me via the link in the sidebar and I’ll put you in contact with the seller.
Update (12:43pm): The tickets have been claimed.
Fan Confidence Poll: May 17th, 2010
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 3-4 (30 RS, 24 RA)
Season Record: 24-13 (208 RS, 135 RA, 26-11 Pythag. record), 2.0 games back
Schedule This Week: vs. Red Sox (two games, Mon. & Tues.), vs. Rays (two games, Weds. & Thurs.), @ Mets (three games, Fri. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- Following their series win over Boston, the Yankees headed to Detroit for a four game set but couldn’t complete the comeback on Monday. After a Tuesday rain out, Javy Vazquez pitched well in a loss during game on of Wednesday’s doubleheader, but Phil Hughes dominated again for a win in the nightcap. They were unable to split the series, falling again on Thursday.
- With their bats slumping, the Yanks returned home to face a familiar foe, the Minnesota Twins. Alex Rodriguez did his part to wake up the offense, coming up with a huge late inning grand slam to lead the team to a win in the first game of the series. Andy Pettitte returned from his inflamed elbow to pick up the win on Saturday, but the bullpen gave it up late and the Yanks couldn’t complete the sweep yesterday.
- Injury Zone: Al Aceves hit the disabled list with a bulging disc in his back. Derek Jeter was day-to-day after getting by a pitch in the hand, as was Nick Swisher after leaving a game with a sore biceps. Chan Ho Park is ready to be activated off the DL, but Nick Johnson might need surgery on his wrist. Curtis Granderson was able to run pain free, thankfully.
- Because of all those injuries, this week’s round of call ups included Juan Miranda, Greg Golson, and Ivan Nova. Miranda might stick around for a while given Johnson’s injury.
- Despite his strong effort against the Tigers, Vazquez is having his start skipped again. Top prospect Jesus Montero was benched in Triple-A for not running out a ground ball.
- The Yankees also completed some minor moves, releasing minor leaguer Chris Garcia and claiming reliever Shane Lindsay off waivers from the Rockies. They also signed Tim Redding to a minor league deal, as well as 17-year-old Venezuelan catcher Rainiero Coa.
- Yankee Stadium will host it’s first concert this September. It’s kind of a big deal.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Laird drives in seven as Trenton pushes winning streak to ten
Posted by: | CommentsHector Noesi has been promoted to Double-A Trenton. It’s well deserved, he completely overwhelmed the High-A Florida State League (2.06 FIP, 11.1 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, ~40% ground balls).
Triple-A Scranton (7-6 win over Charlotte)
Kevin Russo, 3B: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 HB – on base seven times in his three games back
Reegie Corona, 2B: 2 for 5
Eduardo Nunez, SS & Jesus Montero, DH: both 0 for 4 – Nunez K’ed once, Montero twice
David Winfree, 1B: 1 for 4, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K – he’s been a pretty nice find, can’t complain when it’s a minor league signing
Jon Weber, RF: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 E (fielding)
Chad Huffman, LF & Reid Gorecki, CF: both 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB
Chad Moeller, C: 1 for 4, 2 R, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 1 PB
The Ghost of Kei Igawa: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 2-8 GB/FB – 46 of 64 pitches were strikes (71.9%) … he’s not even getting it done in AAA anymore
Amaury Sanit: 2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 3-2 GB/FB – 23 of his 41 pitches were strikes (561%) … gave up two jacks, giving him five in 19.2 IP
Josh Schmidt: 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 4-0 GB/FB – 16 of his 26 pitches were strikes (61.5%)
Mark Melancon: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 WP – ten of his 15 pitches were strikes … 31 K in 23 IP
Open Thread: So it goes
Posted by: | CommentsWell, games like that happen every so often. No one likes seeing Mariano Rivera blow a lead, but it happens two or three times a year, and we move on. Nothing you can do about it. Just come back to the park tomorrow and beat Boston.
Here’s tonight’s open thread. The Phillies and Brewers (Cole Hamels vs. Dave Bush) are you ESPN Sunday Night game, plus you’ve got NHL playoff action as well. Talk about whatever you want, just be cool.
AAA prospects: a status report
Posted by: | CommentsMike does a great job compiling all of the stats and happenings across the Yankees’ minor league system in his nightly Down on the Farm series. From Staten Island to Scranton, we have a pretty good sense about how our players did, even if we mostly only care about Montero, Romine, ManBan, Ramirez, Warren, Z-Mac, Stoneburner and a handful of other players.
But after a while we sometimes get “stuck” in the numbers — we forget how the guy that’s just gone 0-5 with 4 K’s during last night’s game is very often the same guy that went 4-5 with two home runs the night before. So I’m going to be doing a recap of how some of the AAA farmhands have performed thus far, all of which came from milb.com or minorleaguesplits.com. Many of the players on this list are on Mike’s Preseason Prospect List, where you can get a better look at their long term prospects. In this AAA installment I chose to recap players that are actual prospects, most of which will likely (if they haven’t already) see major league action this year. Not too many are interested in seeing Amaury Sanit’s progress, though I’m betting we’d all love to find out if Kei Igawa sleeps with those awesome sunglasses on (I’ll do some digging and try to find out for you all).
Next week we’ll take a look at how some of the AA guys are looking. Also, because there’s a Montero Watch present in the sidebar and most DotF are comprised of MonteroTalk, we’re going to leave him out on this one.
AAA Scranton-Wilkes Barre
Kevin Russo, 2B: With the big league club having apparently suffering a pandemic of Mets-itus, a few AAA players have seen some promotions. Chief among them, and for good reason, is utility player Kevin Russo. Russo, a former 20th round draft pick out of Baylor in 2006, had hit .302/.383/.425 as Scranton’s second basemen before jumping to Massachusetts after Robinson Cano was hit by a Josh Beckett fastball. He got only two plate appearances but Russo’s versatility – he can at least play three infield spots and man the corner outfield positions – defensively, his solid on-base skills, and good contact ability make him a good candidate to stick in the big leagues for a long time. With Ramiro Pena‘s mounting struggles with the bat (which was inevitable, really), Russo may take him over as a super-utility guy at some point. He’ll have to show he can at least play SS passably, though, and there’s no guarantee of that. Bonus: if there are minors fantasy leagues that exist (I’m hoping they do), he’ll soon have CF eligibility, too. He’s played there of late.
Season line in AAA: .301/.388/.416
Last ten games: .310/.383/.405
Time in New York: .000/.000/.000
Eduardo Nunez, SS: Most people saw this coming. Nunez got off to a torrid pace, as Greg Fertel and even RAB’s own Mike Axisa have noted in his DotF postings. Consequently, Nunez has really tailed off, displaying why we shouldn’t fall in love with early season small sample sizes. With a few middle infielders ahead of him in the pecking order and poor defensive skills (albeit with a great arm), Nunez is unlikely to see any big league action this year. If he does it will because of ghastly circumstances. Poor defense, weak power, unrefined on-base skills with very good contact ability, plus speed and a wonderful arm. That may translate to some modicum of minor league success, but I don’t see it happening on the major league level for a middle infielder (and really one in name only).
Season in AAA: .321/.371/.400
Last ten games: .244/.262/.268
Juan Miranda, 1B: Miranda was a big-money IFA signing of the Yanks from Cuba back in 2006. You may remember he was once considered the future first baseman of the Yanks. While that doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, Miranda, in his final option year, is playing for a contract for a big league club next year. The book on him was that though he really nails right handers, he struggles with lefties and his defensive play is by no means great, even for a first baseman. Last year he took positive steps in correcting those problems, hitting lefties with a triple slash of .291/.367/.507. So far, in AAA, he’s continued that pace, hitting .313/.389/.563 in 33 plate appearances (note: this is according to minorleaguesplits.com, which is a bit behind in their stats). Oddly, he’s struggled against righties, hitting .222/.354/.364 in 66 plate appearances. He’s been in New York for a few games, and with Nick Johnson possibly out for a few months, Miranda may stay in New York as a DH. Considering Johnson’s injury history, the team couldn’t be caught too surprised by that. This may be make or break for Miranda.
Season line in AAA: .260/.371/.438
Last ten games in AAA:.250/.357/.417
Time in New York: .143/.250/.286
Ivan Nova, SP
Nova’s rocketed up Yankee top prospect lists over the last two years as he’s finally started to harness his very good stuff. He’s been up in New York after the injury bug hit and he’s largely impressed, though he’s probably the guy sent back down with Park coming back from the DL. In his first appearance, Nova, signed by the Yanks and returned after being selected as a Rule V from the Padres, came in and threw two scoreless innings and in today’s game he again looked fairly good. With a likely ceiling as a back-end starter in the AL East (which really isn’t all that bad when you think about it), Nova is very likely to be the first guy up again with another injury, first because he’s already on the 40-man roster, and second because a groundball pitcher with good stuff is always a valuable commodity. He also has an outside shot at a rotation spot next year depending on how things shake out.
AAA season: 37 IP, 2.43 ERA, 35 hits, 32 K, 12 BB, 1.78 GO/AA
Last two starts: 13 IP, 3.84 ERA, 17 hits, 7 K, 4 BB
Time in New York: 3 innings, 0.00 ERA, 4 hits, 1 K, 0 BB
Zack McAllister, SP
Z-Mac has had an up-and-down in his first run at AAA. Arguably the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, McAllister ran into some issues in late April, early May, giving up over 6 runs in two of three starts. Still, he’s sprinkled in some good games and has strung two consecutive 7-inning performances of good ball. A polished groundball pitcher, McAllister may wind up trade bait or perhaps in the rotation as early as next year. He, like Nova, has back rotation or possibly #3 starter potential, but he’s going to need to get that groundball rate up again. A 34% GB ratio is not going to work at the big league level for a guy with his skill set. It wouldn’t hurt to develop a true out pitch, either.
Season in AAA: 45 IP, 4.40 ERA, 52 hits, 32 K, 9 BB, 0.52 GO/AA
Last two starts: 14 IP, 2.14 ERA, 14 hits, 8K, 1 BB
Romulo Sanchez, SP/RP
The last of the famed “Fat Sanchezes,” Romulo has been very impressive in his time in Pennsylvania and also in New York. Sanchez has a great fastball, occasionally hitting the high 90′s with his 4-seamer, but he likely profiles best as a reliever in the future due to his erratic control and fringe-average off-speed pitches (a changeup and slider). If he can locate that big fastball and keep hitters off balance with one of the off speed offerings, he could definitely stick with the big club over the year. His numbers in Scranton are a bit misleading. In April he gave up 10 earned runs in only 2.1 innings. Otherwise, he’s been among the better pitchers in the upper minors.
AAA season: 32 IP, 5.34 ERA, 30 hits, 32 K, 16 BB, 1.22 GO/AA
Last 2 starts: 14 IP, 1.42 ERA, 9 hits, 17 K, 2 BB
In New York: 3.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 hit, 3 K, 1 BB
Mark Melancon, RP
The final name on our list, Melancon entered last season with high expectations and didn’t live up to them in limited action. I recall his propensity for hitting opposing batters (along with old favorite Mike Dunn). It was probably just jitters because he returned to AAA and fell right back where he’d been before his callup. He came back up again briefly and showed signs of life, causing many of us to think he’d be up in the Bronx to start the year. Well, hasn’t happened yet but it seems like just a matter of time. Melancon has again been very good in Pennsylvania in 2010. A look at his splits reveals some quirks, though. You might look at his numbers against righties and say, “Wait a second, this doesn’t look right.” And to some extent, you’d be right. But aha! Along with a BABip against righties of .462, he’s also giving up a line drive rate of 26.2%, yet checking in with an FIP of 3.05. Look a bit further over and you see why. He’s striking out 16.55 righties per nine innings this year. Wow, that’s strange data. Against lefties he’s getting lots of groundouts, another promising sign. I’d be fairly shocked if we don’t see Melancon in the Bronx very soon.
AAA Season: 23 IP, 2.74 ERA, 21 hits, 31 K, 8 BB, 1.71 GO/AA
Last 4 appearances: 5.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 hits, 13 K, 2 BB
Game 37: Playing with house money
Posted by: | Comments
Sergio Mitre reactions to another Sergio Mitre start. Photo Credit: AP Photo/Paul Sancya
July 4, 2007 was a rather unremarkable day for the Yankees. In an Independence Day afternoon affair at the Stadium, the Bombers had a scuffling Mike Mussina on the mound while the visiting Minnesota Twins countered with Johan Santana. Although the Yanks had an early 2-1 lead, Mussina and the bullpen couldn’t hold the game, and the Twins won 6-2. Nearly, three years later, the Twins are still searching for their next Yankee Stadium win.
With Sergio Mitre on the mound, we might think that today’s game would give the Twins their best shot at that elusive victory, but I think we’re in for a slugfest. Because of last week’s double-header, the Yankees need to start Mitre again. There is no reason to use Javier Vazquez or Phil Hughes on three days’ rest this early in May, and so The Experience will get the ball for the second time this season. The Twins will counter with Nick Blackburn (3-1, 4.76 ERA). Despite those three victories, Blackburn has a 9:11 K:BB ratio in 39.2 innings and has allowed seven home runs this year.
Against the Tigers, Mitre was serviceable. Limited to 75 pitches by the Yanks’ coaches, he lasted 4.1 innings and gave up four runs — three earned — on five hits and two walks while striking out four. I’d imagine he’ll be on an 80-85 pitch limit today, and the Yanks would take five innings of three-run ball again.
Offensively, the Yanks are putting a weaker product on the field. Since Nick Swisher can’t bat from the left side — did you notice his AB against Jesse Crain yesterday? — the Yanks’ right fielder will sit against Blackburn. I have no problem with this decision; I’d rather see Swisher healthy now. But his absence will mean an outfield with both Randy Winn and Marcus Thames. Meanwhile, to shore up the defense behind Mitre, a groundball specialist, Ramiro Peña will play short while Derek Jeter gets a half day off as the team’s DH.
Yet, the Yankees are playing with house money. They’ve won the series and are victorious in three of their last four contests. A win today would be icing on the cake. The game starts at 1:05, and My9 is carrying the broadcast on this sunny Sunday afternoon.
Jeter DH
Gardner CF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Thames RF
Winn LF
Peña SS
Mitre P (0-1, 3.86)
Park not activated yet
According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees will not be activating Chan Ho Park today. This news is counter to what the beat writers originally reported, and Sherman says the Yanks want to keep Ivan Nova around as a long man with Mitre limited to 80 pitches. I’d rather see Boone Logan or David Robertson exiled to Scranton when Park is activated, but the team seems to be heading in different directions with that move.
In somewhat related news, Javier Vazquez, not scheduled to start until Friday, could be available in relief today, Andrew Marchand from ESPN New York reported this morning. If Mitre can’t get outs or is limited by his pitch count, Vazquez may be available to throw a pair of frames against the Twins, and he is, in my opinion, a better choice than Nova for that role today.











