Archive for May, 2010
A-Rod slams Twins in 8-4 win
Posted by: | CommentsComing home to play in front of their home fans for just the 13th time this season, the Yankees looked to get the bitter taste of the Detroit series out of their mouths by beating up on a familiar foe. The Twins are just 3-23 against the Yanks in the Bronx during the Ron Gardenhire Era, and one very clutch grand slam later, they were 3-24.
Photo Credit: Bill Kostroun, AP
Biggest Hit: A-Rod Makes Them Pay
You know, there was once a time when Alex Rodriguez had a problem coming through in big spots. He’d tense up and take that big hack and invariably get just on top or just underneath the ball and provide a less than desired outcome. Then the first five months of 2009 happened, and Alex hit rock bottom. I can’t imagine what kind of effect that had on him personally, but all I know is that he’s been a big hit machine since then. Regular season, playoffs, whatever, he’s made things happen when the Yankees needed them to happen.
Photo Credit: Bill Kostroun, AP
Gardenhire pulled something out of the 2008 play book on Friday by intentionally walking Mark Teixeira in the 7th inning to load the bases with one out for A-Rod. Tex had a single and a double already to his credit on the night, so he was put on and Matt Guerrier was brought in to try and induce the inning ending double play. Alex fouled off his first pitch, a fastball on the inner half, but didn’t miss the second pitch in the same spot. It was quite literally a big fly, hanging up in the air as it carried out to left. Even if it didn’t reach the seats, the game was tied because the ball was hit far enough back to bring Frankie Cervelli in from third. Cervelli wouldn’t have to do anything more than trot, because the ball landed a few rows back for Alex’s 19th career grand slam, third most all time. It also gave him sole possession of 7th place on the all-time homer list with 587.
The best part of that whole at-bat was the matchup. Gardenhire went to his trusted righty setup man in that spot and completely ignored the numbers; A-Rod had been 4-for-6 with three (!!!) homers off Guerrier in his career, so you’d think that was the last guy Minnesota would want to have on the mound in that spot. His first pitch was 90 mph and the second 91, so at least he tried to change speeds on Alex.
Biggest Mistake: Pitching To Morneau
The outcome of the game will certainly mask the mistakes, but pitching to Justin Morneau and his AL leading .485 wOBA with the go-ahead run on second and two outs in the 7th inning was quite the blunder. I understand Damaso Marte is the guy that’s getting paid the big bucks to get out big time lefties in spots just like this, but there comes a point when you have to take a look at the reality of the situation and make a judgment based on that. Michael Cuddyer is making outs more than 68% of the time this season, and your righty relief ace is warmed up in the bullpen. You put Morneau on in that spot and call on Joba Chamberlain to get the vastly inferior hitter in Cuddyer.
Alas, Marte hung a slider that Morneau whacked into the gap for a double, but the Twins ahead by one. When you play the Twins, you don’t let Joe Mauer or Morneau beat you. You don’t even give them the chance.
Biggest Out: Span Hits One Back To The Pitcher
Things got ugly early in the Bronx on Friday. A.J. Burnett fell victim to his own wildness and home plate ump Alfonso Marquez’s incredibly shrinking strike zone in the 2nd, loading the bases on a single, a walk, and an error with no outs recorded. Burnett inexplicably walked Nick Punto (Nick Punto!) on four pitches to force in a run, and all of a sudden we were wondering how many innings Ivan Nova could go after throwing two yesterday.
Thankfully, Denard Span bailed A.J. out. After taking three straight pitches for a favorable 2-1 count, Span jumped all over 94 mph heater down in the zone, hitting right back up the box. Burnett fielded it semi-cleanly, and fired home to start the always fun 1-2-3 double play. If that ball gets by the Yanks’ starter, the Twins are up 3-0 and there are still no outs in the frame. It was very early in the game, but given the Yanks’ recent offensive woes, a three run deficit would have felt like thirty.
When Bad Things Go Good
Photo Credit: Bill Kostroun, AP
The night didn’t start out well for Burnett. His 1st inning involved a walk, a single, nine strikes, and seven balls but luckily zero runs. The next frame wasn’t as pretty, as you read above. By the time the inning was over, A.J.’s pitch count was already at 39, just 17 of which were strikes. After that inning, Bad A.J. climbed into the phone booth and out came Good A.J.
Burnett retired 14 of the next 20 batters he faced, with the only significant blemish coming in the 5th inning when last year’s AL MVP took a 93 mph piece of cheese on the outer black and hit it off a railing next to the visitor’s bullpen for a solo homer. It’s impossible to complain about that, it was a high quality pitch that a super-high quality player handled as if he was taking batting practice. It really was an impressive piece of hitting by Mauer.
Despite that high pitch count after two, Burnett pitched into the 7th inning before giving way to Marte, allowing just three runs (two earned) on exactly 100 pitches (just 51 strikes). He was missing his spots early, but he settled himself down and took the ball deep into the game. Burnett’s generally considered to be an unreliable guy, but this was the 35th time in 46 starts as a Yankee (playoffs included) that he completed at least six innings of work (76.1%). That’s getting the job done, people.
Photo Credit: Bill Kostroun, AP
Happinesses
Brett Gardner going deep. Again. Wasn’t even a cheapie either. Even better: he broke into his homerun trot halfway down the first base line. Dude also added a single to bring his season line to .333-.411-.421. Raise your hand if you saw this coming. (Put your hand down you liar)
Robbie Cano getting things back on track. He picked up a pair of hits after a rough start to the month, and he’s still OPS’ing over 1.000 (1.017 to be exact).
Joba Chamberlain continues to look fantastic. He’s faced 23 batters this month, and has struck out 11 of them. Seven of the last ten men he’s faced have gone down on strike three. That’s domination, yo.
Cervelli continues to dunk cheap little bloop hits all over the field, but hey, I’ll take ‘em.
Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Punto sliding into first on a foul ball to the third base side. What the frig was that? Is it possible to overdose on grit? You can’t not laugh at that.
Sadnesses
Not too much, just Nick Swisher aggravating his biceps strain. Hopefully he won’t be out too long. Oh, and Derek Jeter continues to look lost at the plate. Yeah he doubled, but he also saw just 14 pitches in his five plate appearances. He’s down to 3.52 pitches per plate appearance this season (3.84 last year), his lowest mark since ESPN started recording the data in 2002. He’s swinging at lots of junk out of the zone and has noticeably expanded his zone, which is frustrating as hell.
WPA Graph & Box Score
Now that’s a graph. MLB.com has your box score, FanGraphs the individual WPA breakdowns.
Up Next
Same two teams in a Saturday matinee, 1:05pm ET. Andy Pettitte will be making his first start in ten days, and will be opposed by a rejuvenated (and particularly nasty) Francisco Liriano. Should be fun.
Swisher day-to-day with biceps strain
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (11:01pm): The MRI came back negative, thankfully, and Swish is day-to-day. They’re calling it a slight sprain. I’m assuming he won’t play tomorrow, and if we don’t see him until Monday, I won’t complain.
8:33pm: It is indeed the biceps, and Swisher has been taken to the hospital for a “precautionary MRI.” The absolute last thing the Yankees need is an injury to another outfielder right now.
8:04pm: Nick Swisher was removed from tonight’s game after three innings and one at-bat for an unknown reason. He missed yesterday’s game with a sore biceps, and was shaking his arm while at-bat and in the field earlier this game. Hopefully it’s just a little sore and they’re playing it safe. We’ll update this post if we find out anything more.
Trenton one hits Binghamton for eighth win in a row
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees released outfielder Joe Talerico, their 21st round pick in 2009, before he ever played a game in the minors. That happens more often than you might think.
And speaking of releases, in case you missed it earlier, Chris Garcia was granted his. Donnie Collins spoke to GM Brian Cashman about the move, and he said it wasn’t really a difficult decision. Cash also said the team is grooming Kevin Russo into a Jerry Hairston Jr. kind of player.
Triple-A Scranton (6-1 win over Charlotte)
Kevin Russo, 3B: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 HBP, 1 E (fielding)
Reegie Corona, 2B: 0 for 5
Eduardo Nunez, SS: 3 for 5, 1 R – nice little five game hitting streak
David Winfree, 1B: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 K – 11 for his last 28 (.393)
Jon Weber, RF: 1 for 3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K
Jesus Montero, C: 1 for 4, 1 R, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 K – picked a runner off second with a snap throw … yeah, the outfielder misplayed the triple, but it’s a line drive in the box score
Chad Huffman, LF: 0 for 4, 1 K
Reid Gorecki, CF: 2 for 4, 1 2B, 1 RBI
Robby Hammock. DH: 0 for 2, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 CS
Chan Ho Park: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 0-1 GB/FB – 10 of his 12 pitches were strikes … apparently the wild pitch went to the backstop … he went down to the bullpen to throw some more pitches afterward
Romulo Sanchez: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 8-3 GB/FB - 66 of 109 pitches were strikes (60.6%) … first outing since he pitched in relief of A.J. Burnett in Boston … that’s as good as it gets right there
Jon Albaladejo: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1-0 Gb/FB – 11 of his 19 pitches were strikes
Game 35: Coming home to beat the Twins
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That title doesn’t come off too good, does it? Eh, oh well.
The Yankees went a cool 10-0 against the Twins last season (playoffs included), outscoring them 56-31. That’s pretty ridiculous. If you go back three years, the Yankees are 21-6 against Minnesota, so they certainly have their number. Considering how lethargic the team has looked over the last five days, it’ll be good to see the Yanks at home and taking on a familiar whipping boy.
On the mound will be A.J. Burnett, who’s coming off his worst start of the season in (where else?) Boston. The Twins are essentially a league average team against fastballs and slightly below against curveballs, so the matchup favors the Yanks’ starter. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are no joke in the middle of the lineup though, and those two can win a game all by themselves if Burnett’s not careful.
Here’s the lineup that’ll take on Scott Baker, who’s a lot better than he gets credit for…
Jeter, SS
Gardner, CF
Teixeira, 1B
A-Rod, 3B
Cano, 2B
Swisher, RF
Thames, LF – noooooo!!!
Miranda, DH
Cervelli, C
And on the mound, Allen James Burnett.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET, and can be seen on YES. There’s a chance of some rain tonight, but it looks like they’ll have no trouble getting this one in.
Photo Credit: Paul Sancya, AP
Draft Links: BA Mock Draft, Klaw’s Top 100
Posted by: | CommentsA collection of draft related links…
Baseball America’s Mock Draft v1.0
Jim Callis posted the first version of his mock draft today, and right now he has the Yankees taking Clemson outfielder Kyle Parker, who also doubles as the Tigers’ quarterback. Even though he’s an elite athlete, Parker’s only standout tool is his raw power. Everything else is questionable, including his ability to hit for average. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has targeted players with super-high ceilings with four of his five first round picks, and Parker doesn’t really fit that mold. Here’s his MLB.com scouting report, complete with video.
Meanwhile, make sure you also check out BA’s draft podcast (download). Makes for great subway listening on the way home from work or for the ride to the Stadium.
KLaw’s Top 100 Draft Prospects
Keith Law posted an updated list of his top 100 prospects, and the big story is that LSU righthander Anthony Ranaudo is dropping like crazy because of injury concerns and unimpressive recent performances. He came into the year as a potential candidate to go number two overall behind Harper, but KLaw has him ranked 20th overall now. The Scott Boras client could continue to fall, and he looks like a prime candidate to not sign (because he won’t get the money Boras is looking for) and head to indy ball before next year’s draft. If he doesn’t show that he’s healthy and effective between now and the draft, yes, I would be against the Yankees taking him with their first round pick.
Also, check out KLaw’s individual scouting reports. They’re Insider only, but they have breakdowns, 20-80 scouting scale grades, some have video, stuff like that. Make sure you check ‘em out.
Allan Simpson at Perfect Game wrote a great breakdown of basically everything you need to know about the draft. The who, what, when, and where, plus stuff like eligibility rules, compensation draft pick rules, etc.It’s about time someone put all that info together in one place, in a nice and easy to read format.
I have no idea why, but the original article has disappeared from PG’s site, so the link goes to the Google Cache version. Apologies in advance for the ugliness.
Yankees release Chris Garcia, claim Shane Lindsay
Posted by: | CommentsVia LoHud, the Yankees have released Chris Garcia, who had his second Tommy John surgery last month. They could still re-sign him to a minor league contract, similar to what they did with Humberto Sanchez last year. That would remove Garcia from the 40-man roster and keep him in the organization without allowing him accrue service time, which a 60-day DL assignment would.
The move frees up a roster spot for righty Shane Lindsay, who the Yanks claimed off waivers from the Rockies. Baseball America ranked Lindsay as Colorado’s 23rd best prospect coming into the season, noting his “mid-90′s fastball that can touch 98, as well as a knuckle-curve that he can throw for quality strikes.” He’s strictly a reliever, but his numbers this year are ugly: 13.2 IP, 15 H, 10 R, 10 ER, 17 BB, 19 K, 4 WP.
RAB Live Chat
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RAB elsewhere on the internets
Posted by: | CommentsAs we gear up for the chat at 1:30, here are a few RABbi links to tide you over until then.
Ben on the Bloomberg Sports podcast.
Listen to Ben as he talks Yanks baseball with Rob Shaw and Wayne Parillo. I really enjoyed this one. Makes me want to start up the RAB Radio Show again.
Joe answers questions for Twins fans.
Alex Halsted of FoxSports North asked me a few Yankees-related questions. You probably already know the answers, but yeah, check it out anyway.
Did you guys know that Mike is writing at RotoGraphs, the fantasy arm of FanGraphs? He’s got something today on not falling for Corey Patterson steals trap.
We’ve seen this before from Andruw Jones.
I mentioned in the chat reminder that I’d give you guys some time to read my latest on FanGraphs. Andruw Jones is off to a hot start, but he got off to a nearly identical start last year. Check it out.
A-Rod swinging less, making contact more
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Photo credit: Duane Burleson/AP
It appears that a number of Yankees hitters have changed their approaches this season. A week ago I looked at the changes with Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner. They seem to be on opposite tracks. Gardner has become even more selective, while Swisher has shown a bit more aggression. Both have seen early returns. Alex Rodriguez has also changed his approach a bit, though the results haven’t quite been there for him yet. If he keeps this up, though, they very well might.
A quick look at A-Rod’s stats makes a few things clear. First, he’s striking out less — a lot less. From his cup of coffee in 1994 through 2009 his low water mark for strikeout percentage was 16.9 percent, achieved in 1997. That also happens to be the worst year of his career, 1995 notwithstanding. This year he has struck out in 14.9 percent of his at-bats, so something has changed, at least in the first 33 games.
A look at his discipline statistics makes the difference clear. His swing rate sits at an all-time low of 40.9 percent, while his contact rate is at an all-time high, by far, of 86.4 percent. His swinging strike rate is also way down, 5.7 percent. His previous low came last season, 9.1 percent. A couple of other all-time lows, though not by as drastic a percentage: pitches seen in the zone, 43.9 percent, and first-pitch strikes. 52.5 percent.
The decrease in swing percentage comes mostly on balls inside the strike zone. A-Rod has swung at just 63.7 percent of those pitches, whereas his previous career low came in 2007, 66.3 percent. On the flip side, he’s making plenty of contact with the pitches he does swing at inside the zone, 96.7 percent, more than 10 percentage points higher than any year of his career. He’s also making more contact with pitches outside the zone, an increase even over last year, which was the highest mark of his career.
Intuitively, I would think that these numbers forecast a high-power year for A-Rod. He’s being selective with pitches inside the zone, so presumably he’s only swinging at the ones he likes. On those pitches he’s making plenty of contact, too, so I’d guess that he’s hitting more line drives. Yet none of that is true. His line drive rate is nearly identical to last year. He’s hitting more ground balls, and hitting fewer balls in the air. Worst of all, he’s not hitting those balls in the air particularly well, as only three have left the park, or 8.1 percent of his fly balls. He hasn’t been below the 20 percent mark in HR/FB since 2004. His power is way down, too. A .174 ISO represents by far the lowest mark of his career.
This issue can go two ways. First, it could signal that this approach simply doesn’t work for A-Rod. He has been a certain type of hitter his entire career, and changing now doesn’t make much sense. If he’s going to have success, he’ll have to get back to that longer swing that leads to more strikeouts, but also leads to harder hit baseballs. Second, it could mean that he’s in an adjustment period. He’s in his mid-30s now, a time when many ballplayers start to decline. A change in approach might help stave off the normal effects of aging, allowing him to continue playing until a much later age. Both of these cases have merit, and I’m not at all sure which case this is. It could be something completely different, too, I suppose.
Encouragingly, A-Rod’s defense has improved according to both major defensive metrics. John Dewan’s +/- system has A-Rod at 4 defensive runs saved, third among his peers, while UZR has him at 1.6, fourth among AL third basemen. He’s still hitting well compared to other AL third basemen, ranking third in wOBA. Nos. 2 and 4, Alberto Callaspo and Jose Bautista, don’t figure to be around for long, either. Also, while he’s not hitting home runs at nearly the pace he has in years past, he is actually slapping his share of doubles. He has eight already, after hitting just 17 all of last year. Even if he doesn’t get to the 30 homer mark this season, a 35-40 doubles season will certainly add to his value.
The most important thing about all this data is that it’s tough to make much of it. We’re dealing with 121 PA here, so it’s not a huge sample. Yet these are the results. This is what he has done so far. It might be coincidental, but with numbers this far off from his career marks make me wonder whether the change is deliberate. He raves about his work with Kevin Long, so I can definitely understand if they changed his approach this year. If they have made some adjustments, it’s too early to write them off. If they haven’t made adjustments, I really wonder why his plate discipline numbers have changed so drastically.
It’s been a tough year so far without A-Rod producing his normal power numbers out of the No. 4 spot. Remember, though, that at this point last year, heading into Game 34, that A-Rod had played in just five contests and was hitting .188. Once he heats up — and I have nothing but confidence that he will — we could be in for an experience similar to last year. I’d take his 2009 numbers any time.
Two days and two chats? How can that beeee?
Posted by: | CommentsMike did a game chat yesterday, but I figured that we could keep up the Friday tradition as well. I have a FanGraphs post due at 1 p.m., so I’ll give you guys a chance to read that before we kick off the chat at 1:30.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
