With Hughes, it’s damned if you do, damned if you don’t
By
Photo Credit: Seth Wenig, AP
As he fielded questions from Yankee fans on Monday evening during a talk at The Times Center, Yanks GM Brian Cashman spoke about doing his job in one of the loudest and most volatile media markets around. With two tabloids competing for readers and two sports talk radio stations on everyone’s dials, New York fans are fed constant outrage over their favorite teams’ decisions. Everything is scrutinized, and few in the media have faith in the process.
Cashman, though, knows that he has to tune out the noise to be able to do his job. “If you listen to the fans,” he said, “you’ll be sitting with them soon enough.” The same, he noted, applies to the media. If Brian Cashman and Randy Levine ran the Yankees as Mike Francesa and those columnists in The Post and The Daily News want him to, the team would be a train wreck of contradictions with a $300 million payroll and no farm system. Baseball requires an even keel.
Yet, the fans carry on and on. Last night, Phil Hughes had a bad outing. Against a poor offensive club, Hughes couldn’t escape the sixth and walked away with just his second loss of the season. He allowed 10 hits and two walks in 5.2 innings while surrendering six earned runs. After the game, he claimed to be too strong after 10 days off, and that set off the fan base.
They shrieked, “The Yankees don’t know what to do! Didn’t they learn from Joba? They can’t develop young pitchers! Just let him pitch! Off with their heads!” It was a typically expected response devoid of reason or context.
The Yankees have a plan. After last night’s start, Phil Hughes was on pace for 188 innings, and the team will not have him throw that many. Last year, they tried limiting Joba’s innings by having him throw stunted starts, and it clearly did not work. This year, they’re going to do what teams do with many pitchers and allow Hughes extra rest. They’ve done it with Andy Pettitte; they’ve done it with Javier Vazquez; they may even do it with A.J. Burnett. Hughes will get his rest, and that’s that.
Yet, the fans bemoan no matter what. If the Yanks had to shut Hughes down at the end of August, they would complain that the team is without one of their more effective starters for the stretch drive. If they give him rest now, they complain. Such is the nature of New Yorkers.
This approach — what I would call 20-20 managing — is nowhere more evident than in the bullpen as well. When Joe Girardi brings in a reliever and that reliever struggles, the 20-20 managers would have left in the starting pitcher. When the starting pitcher faces one batter too many and the game slips away, the 20-20 managers would have gone to a reliever. The 20-20 managers always push the right button and are never wrong.
But baseball doesn’t work like that. The Yanks know what they want to do with their young arm, and right now, that will involve keeping his rhythm regular and his innings under control. The real issue with Phil Hughes is that his last eight starts have been unspectacular. He’s 5-2 over that span but with a 5.33 ERA, and opponents are OPSing .798 against him. It is, though, only about innings to fans who think they know better.
The Yankees will always be scrutinized. They’ll always be second-guessed. Even when they win, someone will say they could have won faster or better or sooner. Damned if you do; damned if you don’t.
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If Brian Cashman and Randy Levine ran the Yankees as Mike Francesa and those columnists in The Post and The Daily News want him to, the team would be a train wreck of contradictions with a $300 million payroll and no farm system.
On the plus side, though, everyone would constantly have handy access to Rick Porcello’s last five starts.
5-2 with a 5.33 ERA? that’s john lackey-an
Phil will get it turned around i bet
Yet, the fans bemoan no matter what. If the Yanks had to shut Hughes down at the end of August, they would complain that the team is without one of their more effective starters for the stretch drive. If they give him rest now, they complain. Such is the nature of New Yorkers.
Morons.
Jim: [consoling Bart] What did you expect? “Welcome, sonny”? “Make yourself at home”? “Marry my daughter”? You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know… morons.
LITTLE BASTARD SHOT ME IN THE ASS!!!!!
This.
D’oh, posted after the Blazing Saddles quote. The fans will never be happy with how Hughes is brought along and they will complain at every, single, bump in the road. Great post, Ben.
Thanks, Ben…great post.
“If you listen to the fans,” he said, “you’ll be sitting with them soon enough.”
Love that quote from Cashman.
Ditto. We should remember this, especially when we discuss trades and signings.
Your not suggesting that because the Yankees know best no one shoudl question them? The Yankees are correct to limit to Hughes innings, but that doesn’t mean whatever plan they implement is correct (nor incorrect).
I realize that the scrutiny of New York can be overbearing, but it’s exactly that level of interest that allows you to afford $200mn.
I don’t think anyone’s saying that the process should never be questioned, but that the mob mentality is dangerous and at times, unrealistic.
Your not suggesting that because the Yankees know best no one shoudl question them?
No, he’s not. Did he say that? I didn’t read that.
What he is saying is, the overwhelming majority of people who do question the Yankees are unapologetic idiots, so while the Yankees should have their actions constantly questioned, most of the actual questions themselves are dumb and should be ignored.
Are we here included among the masses of idiots? I’d like to think not, but then again, I also prefer to not to collectively categorize. If someone has made an inane argument, by all means point it out, but I don’t see the point in generalized denigrations.
Meh, there’s a good mix of intelligent people and idiots on this site, just like everywhere else. Like the Yankees, popular things attract people from across the entire intellectual spectrum.
I like RAB, though, because unlike LoHud and other sites, the regulars here actively attempt to talk down the idiots for dumb shit they say and weed out (and marginalize) the stupid from the smart.
I’ve always looked at the marker for “smart” posters here and elsewhere to be the recognition that there’s some things; about players, the market, etc., that we just can’t know, and are therefore willing to defer to coaches, management, etc.
I think the hallmark of intelligence is the lack of sacred cows and narrative crutches.
As in, it’s okay to criticize Jeter/Mo/etc., it doesn’t make you a bad fan. And there’s no such thing as a True Yankee™ or Playing The Game The Right Way, etc.
Oh come on now, everyone knows A-Rod hits too many home runs, drives in too many runs, and just doesn’t care enough about helping the team win.
Sure, he hits homers, but he only does it to pad his stats. If ARod could figure out a way for the RBI to count only for himself and not to actually count as a run towards a Yankee win, I’m sure he’d do exactly that.
But if we didn’t complain, we’d have nothing to complain about … or something like that.
It’s turtles all the way down.
If you think it’s bad in New York, you should hear it down here in the DC-Baltimore area. The fact that the Orioles are having such a bad year just makes every talk radio caller that much more convinced they know more about putting a baseball team together than Andy MacPhail (a truly unfortunate name, btw).
I’m actually surprised, you’d think Baltimore would be soaked in apathy at this point.
Rage usually outweighs apathy.
“I’m actually surprised, you’d think Baltimore would be soaked in
apathyheroin at this point.”Fixed.
Most of the calls sound like it. I’m looking at you angry guy who heard the Brewers would trade Fielder for pitching and wanted to trade Matusz, Tillman, and Arrietta for him, then sign him to a 7 year, $150 million contract post haste.
Please tell me you’re joking. I beg of you.
No, not at all.
If it makes you feel any better, the host of that show actually does know baseball pretty well, and spent the rest of the show making fun of the caller, and actually spent a good bit of time explaining in detail why that was stupid.
Of course he then fielded 3 callers calling him an Angelos mouthpiece, and there’s like 3 petitions on the Baltimore Sun’s message board to fire him and replace him with the firebreathing idiot that does the night show for another network. But it was a fun show to listen to for one day.
I blame Lady Gaga for all of this.
If Lady Gaga flips off the crowd at Camden Yards and no one’s there, does it really happen?
The paparazzi would say otherwise.
“Yo, where’s Wallace at?”
I would expect a large portion of the fans in Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Kansas City to feel that they could run the team better than the management does. I can’t blame them for feeling that way – I probably would too if I was a fan of one of those teams.
Wouldn’t it be great if those three teams were forced to only trade with themselves for a few years. Imagine the awesome trade possibilities.
If that scenario happened, I’d apply for a job as Willie Bloomquist’s personal real estate agent.
Rick Ankiel would be traded to Pittburgh, where he would legitimately become their ace despite not having pitched in more than half a decade.
I don’t know, MacPhail seems to do a pretty good job when he makes trades. They haven’t been able to augment that with a useful FA signing yet.
I honestly don’t know why the Orioles payroll is under 100M.
They used to go toe-to-toe with the Yankees for the highest payroll in baseball. I know they’re not going to spend 200M, but a 75M payroll in that market, with that fanbase and that income demographic… that’s just too low. Angelos could raise payroll 25M and still make money, and the investment and improved team would bring the fans back in no time.
There’s no valid reason that Baltimore isn’t a contender. There’s no reason they can’t do what the Twins do, but better.
Until last year or the year before, they were still paying on the really bad contracts they were handing out earlier this decade. Those are mostly off the books now, and I think MacPhail is just waiting for the right free agent to come along. There was a big push for them to get Holliday last year, even if it took 9 figures, and MacPhail didn’t, which I thought was smart. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them take a big run at Gonzalez, Fielder, or someone like that soon.
I’m still surprised they didn’t really go all out for Teixeira. Sure, you probably weren’t going to outbid the Yankees, but they barely even tried.
If there was ever an FA to overpay to get yourself back in the AL East mix, it was him.
I got the impression Tex just wanted to play for team that was ready to compete. Supposedly the Nats opening offer was higher than what he took from the Yankees, and he didn’t bother to negotiate with them.
I’m guessing Tex never really gave the Orioles a chance. If you’ve got the Yanks and Red Sox competing over you, and an NL East team offering even more, why would you even consider signing with the worst team in the AL East?
http://straightcashhomey.net
As far as I know, the Nats offered him a 9 year, $180 million deal with an option for 10th year at $20MM.
I’ve heard like 3 different things on that. One of them being that they had a scout or something who knew his family real well and new he wanted to play for the Yankees, and wasn’t going to go to Baltimore because he didn’t want the pressure of the hometown kid thing. Not sure that makes much difference though, they definitely weren’t going to get him.
That. I don’t think MacPhail is an idiot at all. He shouldn’t even be mentioned in the same breath as Moore.
And they are stuck in the wrong division. Off-season consensus was that the Orioles were on their way up, but they got steps back from pretty much everyone all at once. No one thought they would be this bad.
Adam Jones didn’t make the leap. That’s the problem.
Weiters is having a poor season, too.
Wieters is struggling a lot, Reimold is hurt (so if Roberts), Atkins bombed, Tejada has no power; really everything has gone wrong for them this season. Except for Nick Markakis, who is pretty much universally hated by Orioles fans.
Jones and Wieters struggled, their pitchers have been worth a collective 3.3 WAR despite Guthrie and Berken being worth 3.5 by themselves (Mike Gonzalez somehow managed to accumulate -0.8 WAR, 12th worst in the league, while pitching just 2 innings), etc., etc.
(Mike Gonzalez somehow managed to accumulate -0.8 WAR, 12th worst in the league, while pitching just 2 innings)
I’m not even mad. That’s amazing.
That’s… really impressive.
It’s actually -0.8 RAR, or -0.1 WAR.
That makes more sense.
Nope. -3 RAR, -0.8 WAR (that 4.6 leverage index really hurt him)
http://www.baseball-reference......hing_value
Chris’s numbers are from Fangraphs.
The two sites disagree.
Ok. I was looking at the fangraphs number, which I prefer.
I prefer Fangraphs for looking forward, b-ref for looking back. Personal choice I guess.
Don’t get technical on me!
Scenario:
O’s trade Adam Jones, Ty Wiggington, Jake Arrieta to Pirates for Alvarez, McCutcheon, Alderson and Garrett Jones.
O’s trade Alderson, Garrett Jones, Miguel Tejada, Kevin Milwood to KC for Zach Greinke, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Aviles, Mike Montgomery.
Once law forcing these three teams to trade with each other is over, Angelos trades all of them for Ryan Howard. You know, after he signed Prince Fielder to a 7-year $160 million deal.
The End!
Finally, David DeJesus for Ty Wigginton!
It sucks to be a Baltimore fan. Like, seriously. My cousin is a Baltimore fan and he always complains about how the Yankees “buy their championships.” “How can we compete with the Yanks and the Sox?”
Gimme a break.
So, whatever happened to the magic Hughes change-up that “won” him the 5th starter’s spot?
Nevermind that, what happened to the curveball? 80% fastballs isn’t gonna cut it.
If it was easy, I’d be banging Katy Perry right now.
The pitch selection’s definitely been addressed here multiple times.
I’m not saying she’s a dog, but she’s not a 12 o’clock special, either. Though I find her strangely attracted while watching those ProActive commercials late at night.
*attractive.
If JMK doesn’t approve, you KNOW she’s fugly.
THIS.
Everything outside of those alien-looking eyes on her more than makes up for those alien-looking eyes. I used to be on the fence with her, but that body…..
….it’s like a Hughes 12/6 curveball when clicking on all cylinders. back on topic….
All she has is a pair of nice cans. Everything else is fairly average or weird looking.
That.
Indeed.
He’s actually throwing the curve 13.5% of the time and his change about 2%. The curve is still there, he could just throw that a little more, same with the change.
It’s not as bad as you make it sound.
80% fastballs isn’t gonna cut it.
Did a little digging on that. You know who else is throwing 80% fastballs? Cliff Lee. About the same mix of regular vs cutter even. He’s throwing them each with about 1.5mph less velocity than Hughes is.
Mike Pelfrey is actually throwing a little more fastballs than Hughes, although he’s using a split finger fastball instead of a cutter.
Pettitte is a little behind Hughes, with a 77% mix of fastballs and cutters.
Clemens actually made a career out of an 85% fastball + split finger mix (at least the post PitchFX bit of his career). He peaked at 90% for that combo in a season.
Yeah, Hughes is throwing a lot of fastballs. It is possible to succeed like that though, so it might not be his problem.
Some are able to get by throwing that high a percentage of fastballs/cutters. And sure, it’s possible Hughes can do it for a long time. I think the larger point is that those pitchers mentioned largely had excellent control and command. At this point, Hughes will either need to strengthen the command, or adjust to the hitters adjusting to him by keeping them off balance with off-speed pitches.
You’re right, no disagreement at all.
That post was more about me being tired of hearing people blindly rant about fastball percent than anything else.
Thank you for saying something more meaningful than “He throws too many fastballs!”
http://www.lechatnoirboutique......20Dont.jpg
I would love for the worst problem the Yankees have to deal with involving Phil Hughes to be that he got shelled after nine days off in order to preserve his innings limit because he felt “too strong.”
That.
Furthermore:
Dealing with Phil Hughes putting up a stinker here or there as he deals with innings limits and builds up his strength on a calculated pace >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dealing with the remaining 3 and a half years and 88M left on Johan Santana’s contract
Oh yeah, Johan’s a ticking timebomb. He’s going to explode one of these days, and it’s going to be b-e-a-utiful. He’s got a 5.71 k/9, which wouldn’t be that bad if he wasn’t in the NL.
Yea it would–that’s tied with Kyle Davis and Scott Feldman for 40th out of 54 qualified AL pitchers.
I meant it wouldn’t be as bad that it is that low because of the fact that he gets to face a pitcher rather than a DH in the American League.
I missed the interview, did he say in what way he was too strong?
His velo appear to be right on the season avg. and wasn’t way up in the zone, however from the target to result appeared to just be leaving balls in the middle of the plate.
Seems more like a token excuse from Hughes for poor performance more than anything else.
To me, “too strong” means he did not have a feel for his pitches. His stuff was good and he was throwing fine, but he lost that control factor that comes from knowing your stuff 100%. It is the very definition of losing his rhythm and timing.
But as Ben noted, skipping one start is not a big deal and the Yanks have to keep the innings down, so you have no choice other than shutting him down at the end, or starting his season much later. Plus, he was starting to fall off a bit before this break.
Fair enough, so more that he was a bit rusty from the time off from anything else, I can give him that. Though the fact he’s rocking a 5.33 ERA since the Sox game probably says he needs to make adjustments on hitters.
Agreed. I think he clearly needs to mix in an off speed pitch more often.
His velocity started off good (as high as it’s been all season), but then really dropped off about midway through his outing. His first 15 or so fast balls were all at about 94mph while his last 15 or so fastballs were only at about 91.
Fan overreaction is the desired outcome of any sports team. Ask any non sports fan, and they think sports fans are absolutely insane for caring so much about something that means absolutely nothing. A bunch of guys from around the world beat another group of guys in baseball and people are supposed to not only care about this, but spend thousands, hundreds, or tens (depending on level of fan) of dollars to watch it happen.
The opposite end of that spectrum is when things so wrong, whether large scale or small. The overreaction that occurs when we win, happens when we lose. That is the only way that is can possibly be. Quite frankly, if you can’t get fired up and irrational about things when they go wrong, I’m not sure how you can really appreciate the championships on the full level that other fans do.
Fan overreaction is the desired outcome of any sports team.
No, it’s not. Fan passion and commitment is the desired outcome of any sports team. Plenty of us are passionate and committed to the Yankees without overreacting to every perceived setback like spastic idiots.
In fact, I’d warrant that the sane and levelheaded but passionate and committed fans are more loyal than the rank idiots who pop off at the mouth with stupid bullshit like “If we sign Randy Winn I’m gonna cancel my season tickets”. I’m rational enough to recognize that not every move works out the way you want it to and sometimes you’ll miss the playoffs and it’s not the end of the world. I’m still gonna be a Yankee fan tomorrow.
I guess my point kinda was, if you are a sports fan at all, you are irrational and your every emotion dealing with a sports team is an overreaction.
And my counterpoint was, that’s simply not true. There’s an undistributed middle between “crazy irrational sports fanatic” and “apathetic I don’t give a shit non-fan”.
And ironically, members of that undistributed middle may actually be the most loyal, profitable fans of all.
Fair enough. Agree to disagree I guess
So you’re trying to tell me the unofficial fan club of Manchester United, the ones that start riots, are not completely delighting the owners of said club?
Disagree. If I’m a sports owner, assuming everyone has the same disposable income, I would prefer a fanbase of overreacting idiots than rational and level headed fans. Just me. You can feel free to prefer any fan you like.
Who is more likely to get pissed at some slight and renounce his fandom, an irrational overreacting idiot or a level headed passionate fan?
Last year, they tried limiting Joba’s innings by having him throw stunted starts, and it clearly did not work.
There’s no evidence that it didn’t work. Sure, he struggled during the starts where he was limited, but he also struggled in the couple of starts before that. It’s just revisionist history to suggest that Joba’s struggles were somehow tied to the shorter outings.
It’s just revisionist history to suggest that Joba’s struggles were somehow tied to the shorter outings.
Agreed. Joba’s decline last season corresponded exactly with him passing his previous highest inning count in professional ball.
His inning total in his first two professional seasons was basically in the area of what a reliever cursed with the role of “Torre’s Favorite Reliever” would throw. Once he got passed that point and more into the “5th starter’s workload” area, he declined.
Also related, last year was the first year Joba didn’t spend time on the DL. He started 2007 late. In 2008 he missed August and got a light September. 2009 was a higher workload and longer season for him.
Mike Francesa wanted to trade Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson for Mickey Man … er, Nate McLouth in 2008. Just let that sink in for a moment.
Mike doesn’t like anyone on any team that doesn’t play in NY until he sees them personally. If player X then proceeds to have a good game/series against the Yankees, he thus is thrown into the “would look good in pinstripes” category. Otherwise he is a dog and not any good.
If Brian Cashman and Randy Levine ran the Yankees as Mike Francesa and those columnists in The Post and The Daily News want him to, the team would be a train wreck of contradictions with a $300 million payroll and no farm system.
What dah Yankees have done with Jobber and Hughes is an uttah joke. Are dey nuts ahhhhh? Dis guy here could be da best pitchuh in da league but no, we have to worry bout da pitch counts and all this uttah nonsense. JUST LET THE KID PITCH WOUDJA PLEASE? Eddie, get me Hughes stats from last year. They’re gonna ruin this kid, just like they did with Jobber.
We’re back.
1-877-kars for kids… k-a-r-s cars for kids….
JUST PUT THEM BOTH IN THE BULLPEN AND TRADE FOR BRONSON ARROYO ALREADY!!!
He averages 14-15 wins every year!!!1111
Jesus Montero for Brandon Inge.
Book it.
Brandon Inge, like Brett Gardner, does not have a mustache. Therefore, they are not gritty.
I don’t make the rules, I just enforce them…
Phil is part of the solution. Obvviously he was going to have a drop off from his early season numbers. He is intelligent and will adjust. FO learned from the Joba experience.
Better off spending time second guessing who we have on the bench
and in the bullpen than the Fate of Phillip.
I’ve always been curious about this, but what if he’s getting the signal from the cather- Posada or Cervelli- to throw Fastballs and cutters, rather than his own will. Is there any way we can tell how many times he shakes off the cather to throw a breaking ball, but throw fastball-cutter? I’m pretty sure that’s not on the interwebs, but it’s an interesting thought.
It’s unlikely, I know, but it may shed some light on this situation.
Edited by RAB: Seriously, fuck you spammer.
This wasn’t me, by the way!
this edited by rab made my day. seriously, fuck you spammer x2
What happened here? Sooooo curious haha
After the game, he claimed to be too strong after 10 days off, and that set off the fan base.
They shrieked, “The Yankees don’t know what to do! Didn’t they learn from Joba? They can’t develop young pitchers! Just let him pitch! Off with their heads!” It was a typically expected response devoid of reason or context.
Kind of an ironic and hippocratic response. Overreacting to one extreme over a group of people who may be overreacting to another exteme seems silly to me.
Nobody really knows what the answer is. I offered my opinion in another thread today but I’m not going to go crazy and say that they’re entirely wrong and they’re screwing everything up again. It is what it is and as a fan you should hope they know what they’re doing and embrace their decision. This doesn’t mean you still don’t have your own opinions but you don’t have to go crazy over it.
We live in a world now where everybody wants results right away. If something takes a little while to develop, it’s not good enough and it’s a failure (to mostly everyone anyway). This could be due to the new innovative technology we’ve been raised on and blessed with, could be anything. In fact, it doesn’t matter what the reason is…but it’s out there.
Everybody should unwrap their burrito and wipe down the microwave
It’s easier said than done and I’ve been guilty of somewhat similar responses to other various things…but in cases like this…you can scream and complain until you’re blue in the face and it’s not going to do anything.
And that’s the bottom line…’cause Stone Rose said so!
Otter: Hippocratic?
Boon: Forget it, he’s rolling.
haha i was thinking of the “Hippocratic Oath” while ranting. Simple mistake.
I didn’t watch the game last night. Was Hughes shaking off Cervelli or was Cervelli calling 85% fastballs and cutters?
Is this a shot at Jeter?
my comment?
if you want
No, I like ambiguity?
sorry, that was a statement not a question. Didn’t mean to add the question mark
eh… it was more ambiguous with the question mark
Betcha’ $20 that Fatcesa would love to hire Dusty Baker are the Yankee manager too since he’s such a genius. THAT man know what he’s doing when it comes to developing young pitching…..
” If Brian Cashman and Randy Levine ran the Yankees as Mike Francesa and those columnists in The Post and The Daily News want him to, the team would be a train wreck of contradictions with a $300 million payroll and no farm system.”
I have to disagree with this re: Fatcessa. While I don’t particularly like him, I listen a lot, and he’s been pretty good the past yr or so mocking the callers who want every FA (“sign Mauer! Crawford!” etc.), and very good about defending recent FO trades (Ajax, Damon, Matsui, etc.)
The shade of orange he is this time of year still creeps me out, though.
sorry, “trades or non-signings…”
He also doesn’t think Travis Haffner is good enough to be the Yankees DH.
That’s a good thing…right? I mean who cares about Travis Hafner at this point anyway?
The Yankees will always be scrutinized. They’ll always be second-guessed. Even when they win, someone will say they could have won faster or better or sooner.
Derek Jeter: We won the World Series!
George: Yeah. In six games.
Ok, I’ll rant against the rant: It is the nature and privilege of fandom to practice what you aptly call “20-20 managing.”
I am constantly assailed by my own MOTHER, a rabid Yankee fan, about how terrible they are. Even this season….when they are in first place….with the best record in baseball….to listen to Mom, the Yankees are a hair’s breadth above the Orioles and Pirates in terms of player talent, are run by morons in the dugout and criminals in the front office.
Only the Red Sox are worse.
Are you the brother/sister who somehow lives in my house that I don’t know about???
There is a distinctive manner in which Ben writes that neither Mike nor Joe write in. Not that that’s a problem or anything.
As far as this post goes, Ben nailed it. Hughes’ curveball was on a milk carton I came across last night. It would really be nice if he went breaking or off-speed for once. When the Mariners pound you, it’s time to adjust.