Joba’s meltdown ends Yanks’ winning streak

Montero goes deep day after non-trade
Joba and the unresolved 8th

With a nice three game cushion in the AL East and seven consecutive wins in their rear view mirror, the Yankees started Saturday’s game with every reason to feel good about themselves. Through seven innings, they still had every reason to feel good about themselves, but a meltdown 8th inning ended the winning streak, shrunk the division lead to two, and once again led to the question: Who, exactly, can be counted on in the bullpen behind Mariano Rivera?

Photo Credit: John Froschauer, AP

The Definition Of Insanity

Do you know what the definition of insanity is? It’s doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. That’s where the Yankees and Joe Girardi are with Joba Chamberlain now. They just keep running him out of there in high leverage spots and expect him to all of a sudden stop sucking. Joba blew the game with an 8th inning appearance I don’t particularly care to recap (single, ground out, single, walk, grand slam), but it’s just the latest example of a guy keeping his job on three-year-old credentials.

I don’t know where the Yankees go from here, but any normal reliever with an 8.71 ERA and a -0.686 WPA since mid-May gets a bus ticket to Scranton. At the very least, he gets moved into a lesser role. The insanity must end.

What Does He Jav To Do To Get Some Run Support?

Photo Credit: John Froschauer, AP

In what has become an all to familiar theme, the Yanks scored basically no runs for Javy Vazquez. Yes, they were facing a great starter in Felix Hernandez, but the guy came into the game with a 3.01 ERA. Even if he threw a complete game, they were entitled to three runs. Yes, I’m kidding. Or am I…

It looked like they’d push some runs across early, with three of the first five batters reaching base, but the only run the Yanks would score came on a Nick Swisher solo shot in the 3rd. Javy has a 2.88 ERA in his last 11 starts, but the Yanks have lost five of those games. In the five losses, including tonight, they’ve scored a total of three runs. In three of the six wins, they scored three runs or fewer. The man should sue for unpaid run support.

In all seriousness though, Javy was pretty damn fantastic tonight. He took a no-hitter into the 6th, worked out of a big-time jam in the 7th, and gave the team every opportunity to win. I know it’s not easy to score runs off Felix, but the Yanks went one-for-eight with men in scoring position, and the one didn’t even score a run. As crazy as this would have sounded in April, Vazquez is the team’s second best starter at this point in time. Sorry, Andy Pettitte lovers.

Photo Credit: John Froschauer, AP

Random Points

Brett Gardner was caught stealing in the 1st for the  fifth time in his last 13 attempts dating back to May 19th. A 61.5% success rate just isn’t good enough for a guy who’s primary role on the team is to cause chaos on the bases.

Robbie Cano foul tipped a pitch into the dirt in the 8th inning, but home plate ump Lance Barksdale instead said he whiffed completely and called it strike three. That was an inning after Barksdale lost track of the count and gave Vazquez an extra ball to work with. Robot umps, they can’t come soon enough.

Unsurprisingly, the bottom third of the order (before Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada pinch hit in the 9th) combined to reach base zero times in ten plate appearances. They also left seven men on base. Throwing Colin Curtis, Frankie Cervelli, and Ramiro Pena out there against Felix Hernandez is like tying someone to a tree in the woods and pouring honey on their chest. The bear ate them alive.

Also, there needs to be less Cervelli in the team’s future. He’s flirting with a .500 OPS over the last two months and he’s clearly not all he’s made out to be on defense. I miss Jose Molina. Seriously.

And sheesh, could Gardner take the bat off his shoulders in the 9th? It’s his fifth time up against Felix, you’d think he’d know the strike zone and his stuff by then. If you’re going to strike out to end the game, at least swing the damn bat.

WPA Graph & Box Score

Here’s the box, here’s the rest.

Up Next

As infuriating as Saturday’s loss was, the Yanks still have a chance to take three of four from Seattle tomorrow. They’ll throw ace CC Sabathia against Ryan-Rowland Smith, who they beat just two weeks ago.

Montero goes deep day after non-trade
Joba and the unresolved 8th
  • Andy_C_23

    They’re still the best team in baseball.

    • jake

      They’re paid the most, the should be. Besides, they have the best record. The best team won’t be known until the WS. And if Joba continues as the 8th inning answer this team is going no where. He either needs to pitch better or we need to find someone that can at least pitch replacement level.

      I mean, for fucks sake. “They’re still the best team in baseball” is all you’ve got? Pathetic.

      • JGS in sunburn-inducing Jerusalem

        So the Cardinals were the best team in baseball in 2006? Or the Yankees in 1996 or 2000?

        The Yankees have the best record, best run differential, are one of just three teams to be more than 3 games over .500 on the road (along with Tampa and San Diego), and have CC Sabathia pitching today to end up 6-1 on a West Coast road trip. I agree that they cannot keep running Joba out there, and I am all in favor of Halladaying him, but to say that the Yankees are going nowhere because they don’t have a reliable bridge to their closer (the best closer ever, mind you) is just a ridiculous statement. 8th inning guys don’t have that much power and a lot of teams would kill to only have this team’s problems.

  • Carlosologist

    Time to watch them kick some ass tomorrow. I’m hoping for a 7-0 CGSHO from Sabathia.

  • Angelo

    I hate Joba this season.

    • Carlosologist

      He has to be Halladay’d right now. Send him to the minors to be reinvented. Maybe he’ll return as a Halladay-lite.

      • Evan3457

        I don’t think he has an option left. They’ll have to fake an injury to send him down.

        I’m not sure about the options left thing. I could be wrong.

        • Angelo

          I believe he has one option left.

        • Mike Axisa

          Joba’s got all three options left. They never sent him back down after calling him up in 2007. They could have him on a plane to Scranton tonight if they wanted.

          • Angelo

            I stand corrected.

          • Evan3457

            OK, they probably should send him down then, and re-work his motion to get a consistent release point and re-gain command.

        • Ed

          Joba has 3 options left. He was added to the 40 man the day he made his major league debut and was never sent down after.

          Bigger issue is once you reach the 3 year mark from his major league debut, he has to be placed on waivers before he can be optioned. He’d never make it through unclaimed, so basically they can only really send him down if they do it within the next few weeks.

          • Evan3457

            Then they better make a quick move.

      • Matt

        They have a serious problem with Joba. If I can watch him pitch and know exactly what he is going to throw, I’m sure major league hitters can do the same. He’s out of shape and sloppy, his uniform was half undone! There is no reason to be giving him the benefit of the doubt any more. He needs to be sent to AAA to get his head straight before he becomes the next Steve Howe.

    • Count Zero

      It’s like watching Farnsworth all over again. Command, command, command. If you throw 95+ but have no command of your fastball, you will go from un-hittable to eminently hittable from appearance to appearance. You can lack command on the slider or curve when you can bring the heat — but you MUST have command of the heat.

      He really does need to go down to AAA and remember how he got here.

  • BigBlueAL

    In fairness to Pena, after striking out his first 2 at-bats he adjusted his 3rd time up and hit a flyball almost to the warning track….

    • smurfy

      hey, a fellow Pena supporter! But the guy is getting buried: with inconsistent exposure, schedule his days against more benign right handers!

  • Rebecca-Optimist Prime-Jesus & Maquinito FTW

    Best team in baseball and losing to Felix will happen. And barring some sort of utter miracle, the Yanks won’t see him in October.

    But for the love of god, have someone else pitch the 8th in 1-0 games. At least for a little while.

    • Carlosologist


    • bexarama

      Totally agreed with all of this.

  • FIPster Doofus

    This loss sucks, but I came into this series expecting to win three. So, things are still going according to plan with our ace against RRS to close things out.

    Big props to Javy (eight quality starts in his last 10 outings). That’s one good thing to take from this.

  • Link

    The ump called the pitch that cervelli threw to second to try to nab lopez a strike in the 7th. Cameras just cut away too quick. Seattle broadcast barely showed it but you could tell he was about to raise the arm.

    • smurfy

      Right, I saw him raise his arm. The media just didn’t pick it up.

  • Howard Cosell

    Been watching Sports for a very long time and Joba is exhibiting the erratic inconsistency of a player with a substance abuse. I’m gathering it is alcohol since he already had a problem in the off season.

    I guess they would be petrified that if they sent him down to AAA he would implode. Tough spot for both the team and the player in that case. Trading him would be the best thing but a red flag to every team that he has something wrong with him.

    I also guess it doesn’t help that he looks overweight as well.

    Good Luck Yankees with this one. Robertson in a funk, Joba Boozing and Park just plain sucks. Time to give Alba in AAA another chance?


    • FIPster Doofus

      Nice use of libel, bud.

    • Angelo

      Been watching Sports for a very long time and Joba is exhibiting the erratic inconsistency of a player with a substance abuse.

      You don’t necessarily need substance abuse to be erratic and inconsistent.

      • Angelo

        Eh, I’m not familiar with “Howard Cosell.” I thought it was a serious comment.

    • Benjamin Kabak

      No imitating famous people — dead or alive — with your commenter handle, and watch the libel. Final warning.

  • Pat D

    I wonder if Lance Barksdale is related to this guy: (safe). If so, it would explain why he might hate the Yankees.

  • Evan3457

    Tenative plan…

    Waive Park and Gaudin. Recall Boone, and call up Albaladejo.
    Moseley is long man, at least till Mitre comes back. Joba pitches 6th-7th when Yanks are behind 2-3 runs. Boone becomes 2nd lefty, spotted where he can help the most in the 6th and 7th. Albaladejo tries the 7th. D-Rob and Marte share the remainder of the 7th and all the 8th. Mo does what he does.

    Comments, questions, suggestions, improvements, mental diagnoses?

    • Benjamin Kabak

      For me, it’s more an issue of Joe Girardi’s need to assign pitchers roles. I have no problem with Joba as the primary set-up man, but Girardi must recognize nights when Joba isn’t on. He said that he saw Joba had “no command” tonight, but he didn’t try to get another reliever up.

      Having Joba face Branyan was a bad idea, and having Joba face Lopez was an awful idea once Girardi knew that Joba had nothing. Just because it’s the 8th inning and a set-up situation doesn’t mean someone else can’t pitch if your number one guy is struggling mightily. Rivera Joba is not.

  • Andy_C_23

    Why hasn’t Moseley pitched since that first appearance?

    • pollo

      cause our starting pitching is disgusting.

  • damn yanks

    Just to be clear, the UMP didnt lose track of the balls and strikes, YES did…. on the throw down to 2nd base, he CLEARLY called it a strike making the count 1 and 1 not 2 and 0 as yes and the stadium had it.

  • Ivan

    I agree that it’s time to demote Joba out of the 8th inning role. If his name was Marcus Chamberlain instead of Joba, he would not only been dismiss from the 8th inning but demoted to the minors.

    (I also hope that the media will finally see that whether it’s starting or relieving, if a pitcher continues to fall into bad habits, he will suck point blank, no matter what the role is)

    However, the yankees don’t have alot options left really. Robertson has been a dissapointment and you just don’t take a randon guy and put em in the 8th inning like that. so the solution isn’t so easy.

    As for the Cervelli, well again you really have little options left unless you really want to do something radical and bring up Montero which we agree wouldn’t help. I agree Posada should catch more however, if he does then an open spot is left another shitty hitter as well.

    At the end of the day, while their are concerns, the Yankees are that damn good and will eventually find a solution to at least some of these problems.

    • Benjamin Kabak

      Considering how the Yanks seem unsure of Montero’s future behind the plate, bringing him up as a back-up catcher is a bad, bad idea. They could call up Chad Moeller. He’ll be as bad as Cervelli at the plate with more solid defense/a better head on his shoulders. If Cervelli’s getting semi-regular work and focusing on his defense at AAA, it’s not the end of the world.

      • Kit

        I thought Chad had been DFA’d. Unless I am completely insane and made that up. In which case, please disregard me.

        • Carlosologist

          Moeller accepted the assignment to AAA.

          • Kit

            Ah, okay. I must have missed that. Thanks for the info.

    • abbey

      What are you talking about Cervelli. Considered by Baseball America the best defensive catcher in the Yankee organization for several years in a row now!!
      What is that bothers some people about him. Yesterday Javy and him flirted with a no hitter for 6 plus innings. He was behind the plate calling the game YES OR NO.
      He is a great defensive catcher. BA will eventually get better with more experience. Please, please get off his back

      • Pete

        he has the tools to become a great defensive catcher, but he has not been outstanding by any measure this year behind the plate, and he is one of the worst hitters in the majors who actually gets regular ABs. I think he could make a great backup catcher because he’s quick and has a strong arm and could feasibly become a great defensive catcher. But if that’s to be the case, Scranton can only help.

  • voice of reason

    I like getting worked up as much as the next guy, but it bears mentioning that even after this disaster Joba’s FIP is going to be something like 2.8, basically 3 runs lower than his ERA. His tERA is also in that area. Unless you believe that a different set of rules apply to Joba Chamberlain than apply to every other pitcher in history, his horrible season is the result of being phenomenally unlucky more than anything else.

    • bexarama

      I can’t just say “well it’s luck.” When he’s bad, he is legitimately bad. His FIP makes me feel vaguely hopeful but I can’t just be like “well he’s got a good FIP. No worries.” I don’t know anything about mechanics, but something is just wrong there.

      I agree Joba’s bloated ERA isn’t the entire story of his season because when he’s on he’s very on (and one or two bad outings destroy relievers’ ERAs). But when he’s off, he’s really off.

      • Benjamin Kabak

        It’s basically an issue of consistency within his motion. If you watch video, he’s not repeating his delivery on a regular basis. Sometimes, he’s good; sometimes; he’s bad. FIP and tRA aren’t going to show that problem, and even with good peripherals, Joba will continue to struggle until his mechanical flaws are adjusted.

        • Count Zero

          Exactly. His lack of command stems from his inability to repeat his motion from appearance to appearance.

          Just in case anyone forgot why Mo is Mo…

        • ZZ

          He’s been doing the same thing for 1.5 years now.

          Watching Joba gives you incredibly more information than his FIP or tERA.

          Statistics don’t tell you everything and they cannot be applied broadly in the same way for every player.

          In this case, the statistics tell you very, very little about Joba Chamberlain’s performance to date.

          The FIP/Joba has been unlucky argument is an extremely poor one.

        • Nostra-Artist

          Bingo. And given that there have always been whispers about Joba ‘needing a kick in the ass’ I have to suspect those variations are due to fatigue, and the fatigue is due to a lack of conditioning. Since the day he was drafted, there were questions about his conditioning and ability to maintain his stuff. Were seeing what the scouts were referring to.

      • Salty Buggah

        Yea, this. It’s very nice that Joba has a nice FIP & tERA, but there’s something clearly wrong. Yes, he has gotten very unlucky (as seen by the 2 non-HR bloops tonight and his BABIP), but he definitely has some mechanical/consistency issues. I think Ben tweeted this but Joba still is largely a thrower and not a pitcher, and as cliched as that sounds, it’s true. Joba’s natural talent and stuff (though it’s still not exactly 2007 stuff, but that may never return or might have been a fluke) is enough to get the Ks and limit the walks by getting people to chase his great breaking pitches.

        • Salty Buggah

          Ok, apparently the rest of the things I typed got deleted. Damn iPod. I’m too lazy and it’s too late to retype it all but I think you guys will get the point.

      • voice of reason

        Like I alluded to before, pitchers just do not maintain an ERA and peripherals like this. Doesn’t happen. Any reasonable baseball fan ought to know that tERA and FIP are more reliable indicators than ERA, particularly for relievers because the sample size is smaller. This freakish dichotomy has certainly never happened to him before, so what is he doing differently now that causes his peripherals to be all but irrelevant, standing in opposition to the rules that have governed pitching success throughout the entire history of baseball? “He’s unlucky” is not just the easiest answer, it’s the most reasonable one. I’m not happy he’s coughing up leads either, but let’s call a spade a spade here.

        • ZZ

          It’s nice you have so much faith in his peripherals, but the qualitative nature of Joba’s ability as a pitcher is much more important.

          He is terrible at repeating his delivery and maybe even worse at making in game adjustments. So from basically the very first pitch you can see if Joba has anything that night. If he doesn’t, nights like this are going to continue to happen as they have all season. I basically said this exact same thing in April and 4 months later nothing has changed.

          When Joba can’t repeat his delivery he is going to be absolutely terrible like tonight. And the problem, is that there is no solution in sight.

          It has been going on for 1.5 years now so hoping it will change by just throwing him out there is a dream at this point.

          His FIP or tERA will NEVER change his or any other pitcher’s qualitative abilities.

          This will continue to happen whether you want to believe it or not.

          • voice of reason

            It’s not a matter of “changing” them, it’s a matter of reflecting them. And I don’t know, but his first pitch was 97 knee high on the corner and one of the worst hitters in the league singled off of it and he hit 99 later, so his mechanics couldn’t have been too awful. His slider sucked, but you couldn’t really tell til Lopez’s AB, and that ended with a neck-high pitch going out of the park. I’d like to know how you immediately knew he didn’t have it today, qualitatively.

            Baseball’s a lot bigger than you give it credit for. Like it or not, there are some statistical truths in baseball, this is one of them, and I highly doubt that Joba Chamberlain is now somehow insulated from it. If you wanna believe that he is, then fine, but let’s not get it twisted: that’s where the “faith” comes in, not with peripherals.

            • Pete

              I actually semi-agree with this. I thought he looked pretty good last night, at least on the FB. He had good velocity and made quite a few excellent pitches. Like you said, Lopez hit a 96 mph fastball that was above the strike zone out of the park. That’s Lopez, not Joba. Sometimes it’s just good hitting. That could be playing the role of “luck” in a sample that small.

    • Jimmy

      You can quote his FIP all you want, but the guy is blowing games and giving the team loses. L’s.

      • Jon G

        Agreed. Being VERY familiar with statistics (from multiple regression to spatial statistics), I know what they’re good for and what they can miss. There’s probably a book “How to Lie With Statistics”

        I don’t buy the FIP with Joba. Something ain’t right. I do buy the mechanics explanation. Sometimes he’s so good, and he has his velocity back. But he doesn’t have the location that he did back in 2007, when he almost never walked anybody. Has anybody done a comparison between Joba’s 2007 and 2010 motions that they can post here?

        And then maybe send to Eiland?

        That said, we went through this with Hughes’ motion, and it turned out to just be confidence with him — once he found it in the pen last year, that’s all it took.

        I’m confident in Joba’s abilities and rooting for him to get his mojo back.

        That said, a trip down to AAA ala Halliday and Lee certainly couldn’t hurt…

        • JGS in sunburn-inducing Jerusalem

          His walk rate is the lowest it’s been since 2007–hence the sparkling FIP. His problem isn’t walking people, it’s giving up tons of hits, many of them hit very very hard. I think there is some bad luck involved, but I’m not willing to dismiss his results as blips that will even out anymore

        • Jon G

          Well, Girardi quoted today in pre-game as saying that Joba needs to get consistency in his mechanics. And he would know best (though it’s nice to see that the very knowledgeable folks here have been on it)

  • zs190

    Javy pitched a great game but I thought the decision to rest both Posada and Jeter was the biggest problem, that lost us the game as much as Joba, in my opinion. Using Curtis, Pena, and Cervelli shortens our lineup so much and against Felix, you simply can’t do that. Most of the struggle with RISP was because we were asking a bunch of bench guys try to hit one of the top guys in the league. It’s not surprising they struggled. I think the Yankees realize that the bench is too weak and is already looking out for some help in that area, so I have faith that this will be improved in the second half.

    Yeah, Joba struggled. He’s been scored on in 10 of 38 or 39 games, I think. I don’t know how often a reliever is normally scored upon but it doesn’t seem crazy high to me. He just gives up crooked numbers a lot when people do score off him.

    Hughes has already talked extensively about the fact that the biggest thing that made him good is that he has confidence now and I think that’s often overlooked. These guys are 24-25 with very little big league experience. Confidence is very fragile and it’s easy for them to get down on themselves and try to nibble around the strike zone afraid to get hit.

    I thought Joba has done much better this year in term of challenging hitters but as a result has given up a lot of cheap hits (anecdotally) with a really high BABIP against him that’s causing all this problem. I don’t think taking him out of the setup role and using Marte/DRob really helps us all that much and could severely harm his confidence.

    We might get some bullpen help later this year but even then we are not going to get better relievers that would bump Joba out, in my opinion. He’s still arguably the second best reliever in the bullpen and we need him to be good regardless of whether we get new relievers or not. The only thing we can do really is to keep sending him out there and live with the occasionally painful blowups while he improves.

    I’m not too bothered by this loss considering we are 55-32. Even the best teams will lose about 60 games a year and this is just one of them. It was frustrating but we have a nice matchup tomorrow with CC against RRS with a well-rested bullpen and lineup, ought to be fun.

  • bexarama

    As crazy as this would have sounded in April, Vazquez is the team’s second best starter at this point in time. Sorry, Andy Pettitte lovers.

    Just say “bexy” ;P

    Anyway, yes, Vazquez is awesome and it’s nice to see him on this kind of roll. It’s easy to dismiss it as “well it’s just the Mariners” and it is, but he’s very fun to watch when he’s on and he was on tonight. I have to think/hope the run support thing is just a total fluke and he’ll start getting more run support as the season goes on (and Hughes and etc. will lose some of his).

  • Cecala

    Ugh I was disappointed to see this game slip away, I didn’t actually watch it but coming back from Despicable Me with my gf, I saw they were up 1-0 in the 7th and was going to put it on but Food Network Challenge was on so no game for me. When I got home my brother told me Joba gave up a grand slam. It sucks but shit happens, I just wish these predefined roles should end. The Joba to the 8th thing is ridiculous because he is not the best reliever at the moment and shouldn’t be trusted with high leverage situations.


    tying someone to a tree in the woods and pouring honey on their chest. The bear ate them alive.

    Sounds like a clip out of the movie Heavyweights.

  • Mitch

    The Yankees have the best record in MLB. 47of their 55 wins are recorded from their starters. They have the best closer that has ever lived. They have done all this with an off year from Jeter, Teixeira,& A Rod. Yet we all know that this team should be better. It is not us being greedy, it is just a fact. If this team had been clicking on all cylinders we “might” be talking about them like the 1998 Yanks. Having said all that, the thorn in this teams’ side is the bridge to Mariano.This is not groundbreaking. It has been this way since the days of Nelson, Stanton & Mendoza. I believe we need 2 relievers at the trade deadline. We do that and Girardi will have # 29 on his back next season.

  • steves

    Hard to be supportive of Joba’s performance last night but up until the Grand Slam he wasn’t pitching terrible (of course that’s a little bit like saying except for the iceberg that was a pretty nice boat ride we had on the Titanic). Grandy was playing too deep on the No. 9 hitter and that should have been an out. Joba threw great against Ichiro. Figgins stuck his bat out and blooped it in. Cervelli botched the wild pitch/passed ball (I’m not sure what the official call was but I thought it was a pb) which really was the killer as that forced the intentional walk loading it up. The GS pitch was up in Lopez’s eyes as he was sitting on a fastball on the 2-0 count and he nearly jumped out of his shoes but somehow he tomahawked it.

    • Jimmy

      Joba is that you? You’re delusional steves.

      • steves

        Anyone but Ichiro running and it’s 2 outs and no one on. Delusional may be the right word but on who’s part in this case?

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      Cervelli botched the wild pitch/passed ball (I’m not sure what the official call was but I thought it was a pb)

      Cervelli was set up low and away. Joba missed the target by two FEET. Just because the pitch wasn’t in the dirt doesn’t mean it wasn’t a wild pitch. That one is on Joba.

  • Mitch

    @steves.. I respectfully disagree. Joba was all over the place.Grandy was playing deep as in “no doubles” defense. And the passed ball was on Joba. The target was on the opposite side from where the ball ended up. He’s throwing at 96…that is not on Cervelli. Lopez jumped on a 2-0 fasball because Joba missed with 2 sliders. The bases were loaded. Everyone knew he was throwing cheese!

    • steves

      The “no doubles” defense is right up there with the “prevent” defense especially against the No. 9 hitter. I agree Joba badly missed the target on the wp/pb but it wasn’t like the pitch was in the dirt; when Mike said he missed Molina I’m assuming he had that play in mind.

  • pollo

    you know who else had great ‘peripherals’ last year?

    John Smoltz

    • voice of reason

      More than one pitcher has had a season in which his ERA was 3-ish runs higher than his peripherals would indicate, therefore…what? I’m not sure I’m seeing your point, and I doubt many likeminded people would be throwing their hands up after reading such a revelation. All but 4 qualified pitchers had an ERA within 1 run of their FIP last season. You honestly believe that John Smoltz suddenly forgot how to do some intangible thing that everyone else can do, and now, as of mid-May 2010, that same affliction effects Joba Chamberlain? In small sample sizes, freaky things can happen and both pitchers are examples of that. 37 innings is nothing.

      I have to say that I’m a little surprised that so many people here seem to put little to no stock into 21st century methods of evaluation. I would’ve thought this blog has a more knowledgeable following.

      • Ed

        All but 4 qualified pitchers had an ERA within 1 run of their FIP last season.

        Qualified pitchers is the key in that sentence.

        It’s extremely rare to keep a major league roster spot for long if you’re pitching badly enough to get a huge difference between ERA and FIP.

        • voice of reason

          That really isn’t how it works. It’s an issue of sample size, explore this and you’ll understand.

      • ZZ

        I have to say that I’m a little surprised that so many people here seem to put little to no stock into 21st century methods of evaluation. I would’ve thought this blog has a more knowledgeable following.

        Using advanced statistics does not automatically qualify you as a more knowledgeable fan.

        Using them incorrectly is worse than using them at all.

        If you put so much faith in FIP that you refer to it as a statistical truth as you did above then you are probably better off not applying the statistic at all.

        • voice of reason

          The statistical truth is that FIP/tERA/xFIP are more reflective of ability and more predictive of future performance than ERA, and that ERA regresses toward them.

      • bexarama

        Blindly using FIP is just as bad as blindly using ERA IMO.

    • Mike R. – Retire 21

      Breaking News:

      Pollo says Joba will be the Next John Smoltz!


  • Nostra-Artist

    it’s just the latest example of a guy keeping his job on three-year-old credentials.

    Two year old credentials, he was terrific as a starter and reliever in 08 as well. But other than that, I agree with everything you said. Joba’s been a garbage pitcher since August of last year, after his good stretch following the All Star break. Actually, that good stretch was the anomaly, because he pitched like crap before then in 09 as well.

  • S.King

    last night, in Bizarro World:

    (Chamberlain sets up 2nd and 3rd with no one out)

    Girardi: Well, Dave, looks like I better go get Joba. He doesn’t have it tonight.

    Eiland: Good idea, Joe. His mechanics suck again. Maybe we should send him down to the minors to work this out?

    Girardi: I was thinking the same thing. We’ll break it to him after the game.

    (Girardi takes out Joba and brings in Marte to face the lefty, clinging to a 1-run lead)

    (Marte strikes out Branyan)

    (Girardi brings in Robertson to face Lopez with 2-out and 2-out, with The Great Mariano awaiting for the 9th)

    (Robertson induces Lopez into a weak fly ball to Pena behind the shortstop position)

    (After a scoreless top of the 9th, Mariano comes in and throws 11 pitches to retire the side in order, preserving the Yankee win for Javy Vazquez.)

    Girardi (to Joba): Hey, buddy– I know you volunteered a while back to go down to the minors to sort this mechanics stuff out. I didn’t take you up on it, but I’m starting to think that might be best. We’re sending you there tonight.

    Joba: I understand, skip. You should be up that Jon Alba character I keep hearing about. Is he the same guy we had up here before? Seems like he figured it out. I’ll do my best to work out my kinks and get back to helping this ballclub instead of being a guy you’d see on the Royals.

    (Everyone laughs and smiles!)

    • bexarama

      Last night in Bizarro World Joba was starting in Scranton already. Sigh

  • The209

    Mike, what’d Gardner ever do to you?

  • Frank

    “…keeping his job on three year old credentials.”

    Mike, that sums up Joba perfectly. I have absolutely no confidence in this guy when it comes to protecting a 1 run lead. This is going to be a problem for the Yanks moving forward and quite honestly, I don’t know who can fill that role.

  • YankFanDave

    Last night’s game drives home the point that a trade for Lee was not the direction to go. The Yanks need bullpen and bench help. The starters are getting the job done but the bullpen is undependable and the offense has struggled to put up runs.

    BTW, Joba’s last 10 games: 0-win, 1-loss, 9.00-ERA, 0-saves, 9.0-innings, 13-hits, 6-walks, 8-strikeouts. he has the velocity but just plain stinks!

  • Jake H

    Joba’s fastball command seems to have gone backwards each year. After the 07 season the reason he was so highly regarded was because he was suppose to have good command. It seems that those reports were very very wrong.

  • Dr. Reality

    Joba is horrible, what makes it worse is his “deer in headlights” look every time they whack him around. Last night it also seemed he know what was coming and he he gave it up anyway.

    Yanks need Scott Downs or somebody else he is not the solution

  • Easterneagle

    GET RID OF JOBA!!! I AM SICK OF HIM BLOWING GAMES!!! SEND HIM DOWN OR TRADE HIM OR WHATEVER!!! THIS IS THE MAJOR LEAGUES MAN!!!!!!!!!!!! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.. I AM SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO ANGRY ABOUT LAST NIGHT I HATE THIS GUY….IT IS IRRESPONSIBLE TO KEEP SENDING HIM OUT….Einstein was right…”The definition of insanity is when you do something over and over and over again and expect different results” STOP THE INSANITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • DB7

    Joba needs to be sent down as msg to him. He got too much fame too soon and I think he doesnt put in the work needed to get out of this rut. I’m not one to look at numbers like others on here, the guy is 24 and he has the stuff to succeed. I think he needs a serious wakeup call and if all else fails the yanks can go with Robertson Albaladejo or whoever.