Aug
09

Fan Confidence Poll: August 9th, 2010

By

Record Last Week: 3-3 (28 RS, 27 RA)
Season Record: 69-41 (591 RS, 452 RA, 69-41 Pythag. record), 2.5 games up
Schedule This Week: vs. Red Sox (one game, Mon.), @ Rangers (two games, Tues. and Weds.), @ Royals (four games, Thurs. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls
  • B-Rando

    What are everyones thoughts on how the pitching staff will look when Ace and Andy return?

    Obviously we shouldn’t be counting on too much from Ace, but having him back will certainly be nice.

    With Moseley pitching the way he has been, it would be a tough call to DFA him. So with Ace and Andy coming back who do gets the axe? Gaudin has got to be one of them, but who gets the other?

    Simultaneously, with Logan pitching the way he has been, what do we do with him when Marte is back in action?

    • jsbrendog (returns)

      wow, gaudin is still on the team? wow.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Fun Facts: Chad Gaudin has been a member of the Yankees for 75 days this year. He’s pitched in 15 games, total.

        In those 15 games he’s faced 115 batters and given up a .265/.354/.480 (.280 BABIP) vital line, which is fairly equivalent to turning all opposing batters into Justin Upton.

        • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

          * The Justin Upton

        • Andy In Sunny Daytona

          Doesn’t have nearly enough strikeouts though.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Well played.

            Fun Fact #2: Chad Gaudin has played for two different teams in each of the past three seasons (the A’s and Cubs in 2008, the Padres and Yankees in 2009, the A’s and Yankees in 2010).

            He’s given up at least 5 homers for both of the teams he pitched for in all three years.

    • Andrew

      My guess is they rest Marte until the rosters expand, but Logan also still has an option remaining. Either way he’s not going back to Scranton, Marte’s arm hopefully will enjoy its vacation and be ready to get into postseason shape in September.

      I guess Mitre goes with Gaudin when/if Pettitte and Ace come back? Unless they decide that Aceves can’t pitch multiple innings due to his back.

    • Faiaz

      Now, I KNOW this is NOT going to happen but I am losing patience with Joba. I would love to see him being sent down for maybe just a couple of weeks to get his *explicit* together. I love the kid but CMONNNNN already.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        The deadline to send Joba down without exposing him to waivers came and went two days ago. Joba Chamberlain is now stuck on the big league club until he gets fixed (or gets traded).

      • Zack

        Before last night, he had 2 base runners in his last 5 appearances (5.1 IP).

      • pat

        Granted, the walk was extremely frustrating, but the “hit” was another JC patented infield single.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      With Moseley pitching the way he has been, it would be a tough call to DFA him. So with Ace and Andy coming back who do gets the axe? Gaudin has got to be one of them, but who gets the other?

      Next in line to get DFAd after Gaudin would have to be Mitre, but the team likes his depth.

      I wonder if we’d be best served just axing Gaudin when Andy returns and delaying Aceves and Marte’s returns until September 1st when rosters expand. If we bring one of them back before then, we either have to cut Mitre or demote one of Logan or Robertson, and they’ve been our two best non-Mo relievers down the stretch.

      • jsbrendog (returns)

        i agree with this. just postpone. delay delay delay

      • CountryClub

        Robertson isn’t going anywhere (no matter who comes off the DL). And Logan probably isn’t either. Marte is still too far away from being back with the club. He hasn’t even thrown off a half mound yet. The Yanks won’t go without a lefty in the pen.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Agreed, which is why I said it’d either be Mitre as the second cut (or we’d kick the can down the road until September 1st).

          • CountryClub

            Sorry about that. I think I had a reading comprehension fail there.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              No problemo.

      • http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/yank_c.jpg T-Dubs

        From all I’ve heard about Marte (not throwing off a mound yet, just playing catch) he might not be ready until Sept. 1st at the earliest anyway.

        But I agree, axe Gaudin & Mitre in that order. Logan and Moseley have earned their roster spots.

      • B-Rando

        Yeah I would have to agree with you on this one too.

        The only downside to waiting is that we may not give Ace and Marte enough time to fully evaluate that they are good to go for the playoffs. I would have no issue DFA’ing Gaudin for one spot if it meant giving those guys an extra week or 2 to get in the zone.

        The other spot is definitely more sensitive.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      What are everyones thoughts on how the pitching staff will look when Ace and Andy return?

      Awesome. My thoughts are, “This pitching staff will look awesome when Ace and Andy return.”

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

        Of course, things look awesome when Andy is back. >:D

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          (hands Bexy some Dove for Men bodywash)

  • Bronx Ralphie

    why are the Yankees playing at 2:00 today? They never play at 2. anybody know?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Here’s my guess: They have to play an afternoon game since it’s a getaway day, but they wanted it later than 1pm since it’s a Monday game and the earlier it is, the less chance that people at work can sneak out to watch it.

      So they pushed it back an hour to get more fat YankeeBucks™. I’ll bet there’s also a CBA provision that allows them to do that (and restricts them from moving it to 3 or 4pm, for that matter).

      • Andrew

        I think the announcers last night said that the union/CBA stipulates that if a team plays a night game at 8 one night, they can’t play before 2 PM the next day. The moral of the story is, ESPN sucks.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          There, that works. They’re not allowed to have the game at 1pm (too early after last night’s late affair) or at 7pm (too late with both teams traveling to Tuesday dates).

        • Bronx Ralphie

          thank you tommie and andrew

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    Mike, there’s a top story you left out from last week:

    • The Red Sox had a successful trip to the Bronx, since they managed to not get swept by winning at least one of the four games on the calendar.

    • B-Rando

      /Morgan’d

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Also:

        • The 2010 Yankees are on pace to win only 94 games, due to their drastically inferior pitching staff.

        • http://twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

          LoL what? where was that?

          • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

            An ESPN gem, of course. I think Miller said it. But he’s so much better than Morgan zomg!!!

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              I think Orel Hershiser was actually the one that dropped that “94 win pace” nugget, although Miller and Morgan sycophantically agreed with him.

              • http://twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

                Aren’t we ahead of last year’s pace? I don’t think 94 wins even gets the wild card this year.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  We’re even with last year’s pace. Yes, the entire conversation last night made no sense. Miller, Morgan, and Hershiser were in rare stupid form.

                  • YanksFan

                    I didn’t hear that conversation but is it possible they said that if the NYY went .500 the rest of the year that they would win 94 games?

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      No, they were talking about us being on a pace to win 94 games. There were no qualifiers or “If this happens” scenarios outlined. It was stated matter of factly that our pitching is not as good as last year’s team and we’re only on pace for 94 wins.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                Yeah, you’re right. They also said the pitching was worse, when we have a lower ERA than we did at this point last year (I’m sure you could compare FIP but ummmmm, I’m also sure they didn’t look at FIP. Or know what it is. At all.).

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  My favorite pearl of wisdom from last night was Joe Morgan during the Logan-Ortiz faceoff saying that Boone Logan “is a lefty, but he doesn’t have a good curveball, so he’s basically a like a righty”.

                  No, really. Apparently, all lefthanded pitchers who don’t throw curveballs are identical to righthanded pitchers.

                  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                    Now that you remind me of that, I remember it. I also remember being like “buh???” when they said that, but then I got distracted and annoyed by Miller attempting to will Ortiz to homer against Logan, so.

  • Fair Weather Freddy

    Good news: AJ was scratched last night, Bad news: He faces Texas and their powerful lineup on Tuesday. YIKES!! With Vazquez going against Lee on Wednesday, chances of a Texas sweep look pretty good. That makes today’s game all the more important.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      With Vazquez going against Lee on Wednesday, chances of a Texas sweep look pretty good.

      Seeing as how we have the best team in baseball, the chances of a sweep never look good.

      • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

        Seeing as Josh Beckett is facing off against Dustin Moseley on Sunday night, the Yanks are going to need to win Monday to salvage a split against the Sox.

        wait…what??

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I actually like the AJ and Javy matchups vs. Texas. They’re not a patient lineup, and will chase off the plate. AJ’s naturally wild, and that plays right into Javy’s game. Of course they might not win the second game anyway because of Lee.

    • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

      I’m less concerned about matchups with AJ. It seems like when bad AJ shows up, it could be the Richmond Flying Squirrels out there and he would still get lit up. When good AJ shows up it could be anyone and he is able to hold is own.

      It seems to me that AJ just needs to win the battle with himself to be effective.

      • CS Yankee

        Don’t disrespect the Flying Squirrels as they feast on nuts.

        /typicalmsmbashingofaj’d

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          You know what’d be cool? If ESPN had a “Beckett struggling against the Yankees” montage all queued up like they had that bullshit “AJ struggling against the Red Sox” montage. But I’m not holding my breath, somehow.

    • Andrew

      All current members of the Rangers lineup have, for their careers, amassed a .197/.276/.339 slash line against AJ (albeit in a combined 203 plate appearances). Why so pessimistic?

    • pat

      Cliff Lee has a National league comfort zone. I worry about his transition to the AL

      /WhattheMSMsaidaboutCC’d

      • jsbrendog (returns)

        i could see joe morgan saying this even tho lee has pitched in the al his entire career except for the few months last year.

        • pat

          I explicitly remember him saying it about CC.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      DOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!

  • Stu H

    It’d be interesting to see the graph annotated, like the FanGraphs game probability, showing what happened that week to cause the dips in fan confidence.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I’m working on that. I’d guess that 95% of the dips come after particularly ugly losses. The big jumps = big wins.

  • CS Yankee

    No one is grading today?

    Although 3-3 isn’t prime as the Jays & Sox aren’t elite teams this year, I’ll stick with a 9 due to the following;
    1) In first place again
    2) Teix, Jete, & Arod seem to be having some QAB’s
    3) The farm is talent heavy with solid backups & development (except maybe OF)
    4) The Great Gazoo play might lead to a call-up for the Jesus prior to 9-1 (postseason eligible)
    5) The return of Pettitte.
    6) The 2nd best team in baseball is having a rough patch and several pitcher’s in question.
    7) Fat Elvis might turn out to be PHAT Elvis…another Cashman heist.
    8) It’s a good thing when you don’t really need to rush a pitcher like Ace back.
    9) Even the farm clubs are sticking it to the Sox.
    10) We are the reining Champions of the world.

    note: Not rushing the Jesus thing and would be fine with him in AAA for another year but damn has he corrected his average and power numbers.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      4) The Great Gazoo play might lead to a call-up for the Jesus prior to 9-1 (postseason eligible)

      The lack of a 40-man opening still makes that unlikely, especially since there are other guys in front of Montero developmentally who need to be added to the 40-man this winter for R5 protection (like Laird, McAllister, etc.)

      I bet Jesus stays in Scranton through the AAA playoffs and then comes up and sits on the big league bench at the end of September as a non-40-man ineligible observer.

      • Andy In Sunny Daytona

        Also, Jesus could be added to the 40-man roster on the last day of the season and still be elegible for the playoffs.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Assuming that Nick Johnson doesn’t return from injury, yes. But if he’s healthy by the last day of the season, I bet we activate him and use either Johnson or Thames for the playoff bench/DH/PH spot instead of jumpstarting Montero’s career.

          The fact that McAllister, Laird, Betances, Suttle, Snyder, and Pope (as well as Pendleton, Kontos, Krum, etc.) all need to be on the 40-man by November 20th and Montero doesn’t is the biggest thing keeping him from joining this club this year. Every DFA and new addition to the 40-man we make going forward has to also consider the moves we plan on making this winter.

          • Andy In Sunny Daytona

            Krum? I wouldn’t worry about him.

            My point was that if a player is with the organization before September 1st, whether they are on the 40 man roster at the time or not, are eligible for the playoffs. It’s the “K-Rod” Rule.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              My reply was that the K-Rod rule only applies if the player on the 60-day DL who is injured is actually still injured and still on the 60-day DL when the playoffs start.

              Right now, we have two 60-day-DL exceptions in Aceves and Johnson, but one of them will disappear the moment Aceves rejoins the active roster. The other one, the Johnson one, that’s a murky situation. There’s a good chance he doesn’t make it back and we get to use his slot as an injury exception, but he’s already started his rehab–there’s a chance he makes it back and plays in a few tuneups in late September.

              If he’s not on the 60-day DL anymore, we don’t get the injury exception.

              • Andy In Sunny Daytona

                OK, gotcha.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  (hands Andy a refreshing Pinstripe Tampa Lite Lime™)

      • CS Yankee

        In having so many contracts expire, doesn’t that take care of the winter 40-man issue?
        …thinking that Pettitte, Javy, Mo & Jete (for starters) come off the 40-man at season end; until they resign or sign (elsewhere).

        It might not be a bad move in having a third catcher option, if Jorge gets injured the thought of only Gazoo is way too scary. BTW, thought they had another catcher on the 40-man…they don’t.

        • Andy In Sunny Daytona

          Fun Fact #58: The Red Sox have 6 catchers on the 40-man roster.

          • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

            and they all suck.

            note: i’m not including v-mart in the analysis because to be considered a catcher, you must actually be able to catch.

            /redsoxbashing’d

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

              The intellectual dishonesty on this site when it comes to the Red Sox is sad but expected.

              /that guy’d

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Sure, we’ll let some players walk (Nick, Thames, Mitre, etc.) and cut some (WLDR, Huffman, etc.) but we’ll also sign new replacements (Lee, probably a reliever like maybe J.J. Putz, possibly a better backup SS/3B or a new 4th OF).

          We’re not going to have oodles and oodles open 40-man spots for adding young prospects from our system, more like 3-5. And we’ll have 3-5 guys we want to add outside of Jesus Montero.

          Those 40-man slots always get filled up quick, so you shouldn’t add your young guys from the system until absolutely necessary. As good as Montero is, there are other guys more necessary than him at the moment.

          • CS Yankee

            A catcher might be the exception to that rule.

            Wasn’t Jorge on the 40-man during the 1996 run purely as a backup plan?

            Although the core-four has five rings, ‘Sada didn’t have an AB in the ’96 PS (i believe), and was on the 40-man as insurance.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Jorge was a backup on the 1996 Yankees behind Girardi, yes, but Jorge was also:

              1.) 24 years old
              2.) A veteran of 6 full years in the minors, the past three seasons all at AAA
              3.) Already a honed and trained MLB-capable backstop

              And I’m sure Jorge had been added to the 40-man back in 1994. They didn’t add him in 1996 just to be the third emergency backup catcher.

              Also, for the record, Jorge was not on the 1996 postseason roster.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                He was on the 1995 postseason roster, though.

                As a pinch-runner.

              • CS Yankee

                Disagree, Leyritz was the backup to Girardi in 1996.

                I recall (hopefully non-Clemens like) he was touted as the next starting catcher and was on the 40-man…was not chosen in the postseason roster (but was in ’95) and thus was the emergency backup catcher.

                My point is, that you should have a third catcher on the 40-man…and for this year, why not Jesus?

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  And I’ve answered that question for you, several times.

                  1.) We don’t need a third catcher on the 40 man. It would be nice, but it’s a luxury, not a necessity. Plenty of Yankee teams have gone a full season with only 2 catchers on the 40-man.
                  2.) The reason not to add Montero is because he doesn’t need a 40-man spot yet, but several other prospects do. You don’t add youngsters to the 40-man who don’t need to be on there, that’s just blocking yourself from being able to retain a different talented prospect.

                  Adding Jesus Montero now to be a backup-backup catcher (before we have an injury need for him, mind you) would likely cost us something valuable this winter like a Damon Sublett or a Ryan Pope. You don’t give away a Sublett or a Pope just so you can have the piece of mind of knowing that you have a backup to your backup for a few months down the stretch.

                  • CS Yankee

                    Relax dude.

                    Different things mean different things to different people.

                    My views, are that having another bat into the lineup in the two-hole can only be achieved if a) there is a worthy bat and b) that he must be on the 40-man prior to 9-1.

                    Now, with the “K-rod” rule it is possible to get him there anyways if needed. #28 is the focus (actually, the only focus for the next few months).

                    Peace out.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      I am relaxed. I’ve never not been relaxed throughout this entire conversation.

      • Ed

        On the 40 man roster note… I’m not sure, but I believe that Romine needs to be added to the 40 man after this season, but I don’t think Montero needs to be added yet. That might actually give Romine a leg up over Montero on a call up in an emergency situation.

        On that thought, if Posada couldn’t catch the rest of the way, who do you add to the roster? Moeller, Romine, or Montero? And who starts – one of those three, or Cervelli?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          No, it’s highschoolers from the ’06 draft and collegians from the ’07 draft. Romine was a HS pick from ’07, so he has one more year before his R5 clock runs out.

          • Ed

            Ah ok. I had it in my head that Romine was picked out of college. Nevermind the rest of what I said then, as it was all based on that assumption.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              No worries, Ed. You’re usually all over this, you’ve earned the right to have a mistake or two.

    • vin

      I think the acquisition of Berkman eliminated the .1% chance Jesus had of making it to the Bronx this season (injuries excluded).

      Girardi and Cash have to feel comfortable with a Berkman/Thames/Posada DH. And there’s no way they would let a guy like Montero catch in the playoffs.

      • CS Yankee

        If Posada goes down with injury then do you want cervelli as your postseason catcher?…I do not!

        Even if you do want Cervelli, who is the backup? Why not have that someone bring their bat with them?

        Hasn’t Jesus has thrown out more in AAA than Cervelli this year?

        Hasn’t the recipe for the Yankees over last 4 rings is to have the bat over the glove in the two-position? Moeller & Romine (although closer) won’t likely do that.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          If Posada goes down with injury then do you want cervelli as your postseason catcher?…I do not!

          If Posada goes down with injury, the idea of promoting Jesus Montero and tying up a 40-man spot with him becomes more desirable.

          Until Jorge actually does get injured, though, it’s moot.

          • CS Yankee

            There must be an exception for catcher’s though, what if your two catcher’s go down in late September…MLB doesn’t want Swisher behind the plate catching.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Again, until we actually have an injury, all this is academic.

              You don’t add Montero to the 40-man IN CASE you have an injury to Posada or Cervelli, you add Montero to the 40-man AFTER you have an injury to Posada or Cervelli.

              (And to be frank, you probably add Chad Moeller to the 40-man if you have an injury, so you can DFA him later with no consequences. But I digress.)

              If ‘Sado goes down with a nasty injury on September 2nd, we’d just DL him and move him to the 60-day, thus allowing us to add Montero and get him playoff eligible anyway.

              Don’t put the cart before the horse.

              • CS Yankee

                You should be frank more often. Your reason of Moeller in DFA’ing him after the season is just and sound.

                I would rather have a solid bat in reserve in that position and worry about the 40 man after the 28 objective is complete. Cashman will likely have 3 or 4 trades done in that time anyways.

                Whatevs

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  I would rather have a solid bat in reserve in that position and worry about the 40 man after the 28 objective is complete.

                  Montero’s still available in reserve right now, while not on the 40-man, because we can add him if we need him. And if disaster strikes and we need Montero, we’ll add Montero.

                  But only after disaster strikes. Not before. Before disaster strikes, you retain the roster flexibility provided to you by not needing to commit a 40-man spot to Montero until necessary.

                  • CS Yankee

                    …a few MLB innings to see if he is lost couldn’t hurt either. If he is, then moeller is the choice.

  • Jorge

    Still in first place. Still rolling. Still loving what I read every night on DOTF. Still a 9.

    I’m sure somoene could provide more solid evidence as to why it’d be so on here, but I am a bit surprised by how little confidence there’s been in Dustin Moseley. Yes, the guy is a journeyman-type, but I do remember him looking like a respectable major league pitcher when with the Angels. This guy shouldn’t be receiving Aaron Small comparisons (as I’ve seen more than once here), and there’s a whole lot of guys the Yankees have put out there to start these past few years who gave me a much queasier feeling than Moseley does.