Knowing your team and the situation
By
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
Last night’s game provided more blogging topics than we know what to do with, from the bullpen machinations to the stellar starting pitching to yes, Curtis Granderson‘s bunt. Sacrifice bunting (hey, bunting for a hit is cool in my book) is a topic I’ve beat to death on Twitter and for the most part on the site as well, yet my pleas fall on deaf ears. Joe Girardi continues to employ the move ad nauseum with almost complete disregard of the game situation, and with the team struggling so much it’s just another thing to second guess.
It’s not so much about the actual bunt, the idea of sacrificing one of three outs in the inning to advance the baserunner an extra 90 feet, but what appears to be a lack of understand of what the hell is going on at the moment. Girardi appears to have a blind faith in the strategy despite watching it backfire numerous times in the last few weeks, and last night’s situation really looked like the tipping point.
Balfour’s first two pitches to Granderson were fastballs out of the zone both up and away, putting the count at two balls and no strikes. So let’s think about the situation for a sec. Grandy is a dead fastball hitter, and has been worth three runs above average against the pitch this season. For his career, he’s 58.1 runs above average or 0.75 runs per 100 fastballs seen. Balfour is fastball heavy pitcher, throwing it 77.1% of the time this year. Furthermore, he’s hasn’t thrown a non-fastball on 2-0 since 2007 according to FanGraphs’ splits. Three freaking seasons of nothing but 2-0 fastballs.
It’s a fastball hitter in a fastball count with a fastball pitcher in the mound. It’s a match made in baseball heaven. The player who executes the best in that situation (most likely) wins, but certainly you couldn’t ask for Granderson to be up in a better spot. Sure enough, Balfour threw a 2-0 fastball at 91 mph, and you know what happened. Granderson laid down a rather gorgeous sac bunt, getting Kearns into scoring position exactly as Girardi planned. In terms of WPA, the bunt actually increased the Yanks’ chances of winning by 2.6%, but the WPA swing lacks come context. Bunting was the wrong move not only because it took the bat out of Granderson’s hands in a situation where could have done some real damage, but it passed the baton to Colin Curtis, one of the very last guys on the roster you’d want up in that spot.
Again, I’m not so upset about the actual bunt, I’ve accepted it as part of the game, but rather the complete lack of understanding the situation and blindly following “the book.” This also goes back to Frankie Cervelli‘s bunt on a 3-0 count (!!!) in the Texas series. I mean, come on, taking a pitch and potentially get an extra baserunner (with one fewer out) for Marcus Thames and Nick Swisher would increase the Yanks’ chances of winning exponentially over moving the speedy Eduardo Nunez – who was already in scoring position – to third. Again, we have what appears to be a complete lack of understand the situation, or perhaps it’s just an unwillingness to adjust.
The Yankees, as presently constructed, are not some smallball team. Are they struggling to score some runs right now? Sure, but that doesn’t mean you overhaul the system. They have a .350 OBP and a .347 wOBA as a team, both the best in baseball. Their .170 ISO is third best in the game, and their raw homerun total of 174 is also third best. This is a team built around getting players on base and hitting for power, and it has been for at least a decade-and-a-half now. All of a sudden, now with a slumping offense (.218/.313/.287 over the last eight games) the plan is change up the strategy? I don’t get it. Stick with what got you there and what your players know. Don’t take them out of their element and try to force things. That only leads to more struggles.
This eight game stretch has made the Yankees look about as bad as they have at any point in the last two or three years, and naturally Joe Girardi’s decision making is going to be at the forefront of the blame. Bullpen moves are in their own little world of second guessing, but offensive strategies like bunting and giving away outs are easy to break down and criticize. There seems to be a disconnect between what the Yankees actually are and what Girardi either a) thinks they are, or b) wants them to be. He has to know the situation and his personnel way better than he’s shown over the last few weeks, and really the last three seasons. Remember, this bunting nonsense is not unique to September 2010.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Hey, Ross from New Jersey, I responded late to your sOPS+ vs. tOPS+ post, but I think it was a little late. Basically, to me, tOPS+ is a better indicator than sOPS+ because you only use that hitter’s OPS+, not the league’s. What Logan’s better sOPS+, yet worse tOPS+, against RH’ers than Gaudin means is that Logan faced crappier RH’d hitters. Which makes sense because he should ONLY face the crappiest of RH’d hitters. Gaudin has a better tOPS+, but worse sOPS+, because, you guessed it, he faced better RH’d hitters. A RH’d hitter can expect a larger bump in OPS+ than when facing Gaudin. That’s just this year. In his career, Gaudin is WAY better against RH’s hitters than Logan.
Ah okay, that makes more sense. From bRef’s explanation it makes tOPS sound like it’s just some percentage breakdown of the pitcher’s overall OPS against.
I don’t really want to continue the argument here, but I do think there’s more to it since Maddon elected to bring in LH hitters anyway. Maybe we can pick it up some other time, lol.
Also, how do you know I’m from New Jersey? Maybe I’m just a passionate Yankee fan in England? (Okay, maybe not)
No worries. Until next time.
I used the wrong preposition! Doh!
tremendous article.. context and the details are key.. could not agree more.. the circumstance affects the decision, GIrardi has no clue.. As I stated last night if Pujols was on deck that is one thing but Colin CUrtis…………
After all that ink that was spilled over how Girardi was such a “numbers guy” when he was hired to manage the team, he can’t stop getting in his own way with in-game decisions that totally fly in the face of the data given here. I also hate the idea that “small ball” can wake up a slumping offense, which seems like an oft-used cliche. Perhaps some better ABs with men on base would wake up the offense, as opposed to giving away outs and reducing the chances of actually scoring?
Considering the specific circumstance involved, I think I would rather have Curtis hit in that spot. But since we are analyzing G’s every moves as it has been magnified by team’s offensive struggle of late. How about the notion these motherfuckers get a hit in a big spot more often than they have of late ? How about Arod and Thames coming through in 7th . How about my 22 million dollars captain come through against Balfour? This team has been putrid with RISP of late , period. I do lay the majority of blames on the player in this.
I’m no fan of Girardi, but I completely agree that the offense must take most of the blame lately. I’m also tired of hearing about injuries. There are still enough good to decent bats in this lineup where they should be able to score a few runs. I’m going to blow a gasket if I have to see another pop-up, weak fly or strikeout with runners in scoring position. Forget with RISP…how about when there’s a runner on third and less than two out? They’ve been awful in that situation for about a month. To be fair though, they haven’t had many runners on third lately anyway.
a runner on third with less than 2 outs?
Squeeze!!
Girardi rightfully deserves to be raked over the coals for this one, as it was a terrible decision that was 100% his fault.
That said, 29 other managers in baseball would have done the same thing, as would everyone else being considered for the Yankees job before Girardi was hired, as would anyone who will be considered for the Yankees job should Joe end up elsewhere next year.
Inertia is a strong force in baseball.
Agreed. It was frustrating, but most managers are “old school.” They all would have done the same thing.
the majority of the blame always goes on the players but that does not relieve Girardi of his blame when he makes a bonehead move.
your arguement is the usual black and white arguement in a world of gray.
ie the gaudain move was OK, because he got out of the inning. NO. Pitching Gaudain was moronic regardless of the outcome because gaudain more times then not will fail, girardi got lucky on that brain dead move, it was not a smart move…….
It’s spelled Gaudin.
/friendly tip’d
This article doesn’t have anything to do with gaudain. Whoever that is.
your arguement is the usual black and white arguement in a world of gray.
What?
Hooked on Phonics worked for me.
Nice rant/analysis there. I am in complete agreement. The bunting has got to stop.
It seems to me that Girardi did kind of plan to take the pedal off the gas and is now panicking because of the recent slide. Of course, Joe’s reaction is always to insert himself into the action when things start going wrong. That’s certainly not a good trait, especially when “inserting himself” means taking the bat out of his megabucks players’ hands and giving to guys like Colin Curtis and Greg Golston.
And I just want to point out that reaction defense of Girardi is just as bad as reactionary criticism of Girardi. People seem to forget that.
Reactionary*. He is manager, not King.
but it passed the baton to Colin Curtis, one of the very last guys on the roster you’d want up in that spot.
This is the worst part about the whole situation. 90% of Major League hitters shouldn’t be bunting to get to Colin Curtis.
You know what? 90% may be underselling it there.
What percentage of major leaguers do Pena and Cervelli make up?
Here is a non-exhaustive list of players on the Yankees who should be bunting to get to Colin Curtis:
Francisco Cervelli
Eduardo Nunez (although he might be equal to Curtis)
Ramiro Pena
Greg Golson
Kevin Russo (although he might be equal to Curtis)
Curtis Granderson (if and only if a lefty is on the mound)
Anyone who is a pitcher.
Although I might not want CC bunting or swinging the bat at all, I might just tell him go up there and don’t swing, period, unless it’s a FB down the middle.
If it’s a lefty on the mound, no right-handed hitter should be bunting to get to the left-handed Colin Curtis.
Or Curtis Granderson, who is a monumentally better hitter than Colin Curtis regardless of who is on the mound.
vs a lefty? It may just be even.
vs a righty? No question, Granderson *should not* be bunting.
I once saw Colin Curtis hit a home run after inheriting an 0-2 count. 2 STRIKES!!!!! HOME RUN!!!!
So, we already know this isn’t going to happen again for quite some time!
But in an MLB manager’s head, that vision will there for the rest of the year.
Add to this whole rant the fact that NONE OF THE YANKEES ARE GOOD BUNTERS! Sorry for the yelling, I had an acid flashback to last night. Even Gardner, who should theoretically be a decent bunter is really not good at it at all.
Actually, I have to disagree with you. Cervelli is a very good bunter.
Well, Jeter is a good bunter, so is Pena, apparently Granderson too. As for the other guys, do you really want to see A-rod bunt? Or Thames? Or Tex? Guys with their ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark should never be asked to bunt anyway.
Again, it goes back to Girardi and the apparent disconnect with his team. Why ask Gardner to bunt if he’s not good at it? He did the same thing with Swish last year, if you remember.
Johnny, you better check with Tim McCarver, because he’s already gone on record saying that Brett Gardner is the best bunter in the AL. And Tim McCarver has been in baseball for years…..he caught Bob Gibson!!!!!
/old meme’d
He said that?!
Not that it surprises me that much.
Yeah, he said it. Last year during the playoffs, I believe. Just another idiotic comment from “Singing” Tim McCarver.
Gardner is not even the best bunter on his team! I like Gardner a lot but he needs to work on his bunting and he needs a coach for his base stealing technique. He’s doing it almost entirely on speed.
You know how you can tell the bunt was a bad idea?
The bunt was going to go foul, but the first baseman made sure to field it before it went foul so they could get Granderson out. Even the Rays were happy to take the out and give up the base.
All of that might be bull and the 1st baseman just reacted, but I’d be willing to bet the Rays were happy with the tradeoff.
Good point. I don’t think it was just a reaction. Pena is a good fielder and he fielded that ball on the line with one foot in foul territory. also The rays knew the bunt was coming. Granderson squared at least once before the the 2-0 count. They were clearly happy with the trade off.
I agree it was an awful move to bunt granderson with the 2-0 count. great hitting count and he almost never hits into a DP. though I think girardi was thinking more about having Jeter up with a runner in scoring position than colin curtis. you can’t bring up the fact that curtis was on deck without mentioning Jeter was due up after him. While Jeter is having an awful year you had to have some level of optimism with him up in that spot. He did hit the ball hard to right with a classic jeterian swing
What situation produces better odds of scoring though?
A. Man on first, Granderson up, Curtis on deck, Jeter in the hole and 0 outs?
Or.
B. Man on second, Curtis up, and 1 out.
Or.
C. Man on second, Jeter up and 2 outs.
Pretty willing to bet it’s situation A (especially with a RHP on the mound). Considering how Jeter has hit in the past few months I hope Girardi wasn’t expecting him to get it done.
I’m beginning to think teams should play some type of opposite field overshift for Jeter. He so rarely hits a ball with conviction to left or left center.
Is my memory failing or did Kearns hit into a dp with Posada on first, no outs in the 6th or 7th inning? Was that a pinch runner situation? Hit and run? Bunt with a pinch hitter?
Joe G knows his team is not that good.
Feels like Girardi has been treating these last few games as a glorified practice.
I rarely link my stuff here, but I took a look at all the bunts Girardi called for this year. I think that it is an issue, but it is being overstated.
http://bit.ly/dza3v9
Girardi is a good manager that has had a brutal 8 days on the bench. The only thing you can hope for is that he will learn from stupid decisions like this one and get this stuff out of his system before October. He is consistently putting his team in poor positions.
Hopefully he turns it around along with the offense starting tonight, because good managers should not be this bad for this long.
The biggest question is: is Joe just having a bad week, or is this him getting exposed during a week where the Yankees have played a ton of close games?
I lean towards giving him a bit of a pass because of all the innings he’s had to get out of the bullpen. And the offense just isn’t performing right now. Still though, a bad decision in a tight game can kill you in a playoffs, so he needs to get on the ball.
Letting Granderson bunt 2-0 was absolutely disastrous. They should have waited until the count was 3-0 before letting him bunt.
/Logic’d
Impressive. Good stuff.
Someone just called into Michael Kay’s show to complain about the Yanks’ situational hitting.
His solution to this problem?
More bunting.
The sports world is doomed.