Lee holds down Yanks, gives Rangers series edge
By
That's all it took (Mark Humphrey/AP)
Nine times the Yankees came to the plate needing at least two runs. Nine times they failed to produced even one. Josh Hamilton’s first-inning home run held up through the next eight and a half, and the Rangers took Game 3 of the American League Championship Series. They now lead the series two games to one.
Andy Pettitte did his part to keep the game close. After the Hamilton home run Pettitte pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and walking none. He left with the score 2-0. So did Kerry Wood. David Robertson did not. He let the game get out of hand in the ninth, removing any chance for a mystique and aura guided comeback.
It felt as though the Yanks were slowly making progress against Cliff Lee. Very slowly. But progress nonetheless. By the fourth they had earned a walk. In the fifth it was a hit. In the sixth they put a runner into scoring position — to third, even. But that was as far as they’d get. Lee cruised through the order one last time, concluding his night with his 13th strikeout. It was his third straight postseason start in which he recorded at least 10 strikeouts, and his fifth in his last six.
I wish this were a mid-June start rather than a postseason one. Not because the loss would have been essentially meaningless to the Yankees, though that does help. But because I wanted to more fully appreciate Lee’s performance. He worked into a few un-Cliff-Lee-like deep counts, but only one time did he lose a hitter. Some of that has to be attributable to the Yanks’ offense, but that doesn’t really matter. The mythical Cliff Lee showed up. You have to score a runner from second with none out if you want even the remotest shot of besting mythical Cliff Lee.
The Yanks can only hope now that mythical A.J. Burnett follows mythical Cliff Lee’s act. The Yanks are down 2-1 and need the win to ensure the return trip to Texas. Right now it doesn’t matter how comfortable anyone is with Burnett pitching Game 4. It’s all in his, and the offense’s, hands.
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Cashman should have paid Jack Z’s blackmail.
Keeping Lee away from a prime postseason competitor was an imperative.
oN The bright side, atleast we broke up the no hitter.
Guess the ‘pitch Burnett vs Lee’ crowd were all still “idiots”.
Yep. Hindsight changes nothing, Steve.
It’s not hindsight when you were on board before it happened. What Lee did tonight was utterly predictable. Sometimes you lose a battle to win a war. That’s about planning and thought process, not after the fact second guessing.
The great thing about sports is that we keep score and get to see who was right and who was wrong.
I think you should keep fighting the good fight here (I’m not on your side by I think many people were way too dismissive of your argument, which I think is defensible)… But this:
“The great thing about sports is that we keep score and get to see who was right and who was wrong.”
…Is flat-out false. If you do everything right and then get an unlucky result, that unlucky result is not proof that you made a mistake or should have done something differently.
Just when I’m completely pissed off at you, you throw in this-
I’m not on your side by I think many people were way too dismissive of your argument, which I think is defensible
..which was my point. It’s a valid strategy for which only one side was argued. But that’s the internet, I guess.
You had absolutely no right to be so pissed at me and to react like you did. See below.
Huh? People brought up the position and disagreed with it. Now people need to argue in favor of things they dont agree with?
No, but getting back to my original comment they shouldn’t be painted as “idiots”. Everyone who disagrees with you isn’t less intelligent. That’s horrendously immature, and goes on way too much both here and elsewhere.
Yep, good to see you still understand.
Try reading “The Art of War” and get back to me.
If you’re just going to roll over and give the other team a win whenever they throw their best pitcher, then don’t even bother coming.
guess tommy hunter should have pitched game 1
Take your loser mentality to CitiField, Steve.
Don’t tell me who to root for asshole.
Oooh, drama.
..And I’m out. Good night to all. Go Yanks.
..And I’d like to add that while I tthink you’re beingtoo gloom and doom, Nostra-Artist, since this comment clearly pissed you off sorry for endorsing it so readily.
..Not that I dislike you,Mondesi.
Oh dear.
/Politician’d
..Now good night.
Dude, calm the fuck down, that joke was in SUPPORT of you. (I was making fun of Mike’s post when he said that starting AJ vs Lee was wrong because it’s the product of a loser mentality more befitting the Mets than the Yankees.)
Take a deep breath, take a time-out, maybe come back when you’re not so sensitive.
Fine, I misunderstood and retract that.
Explain to me how essentially conceding a loss, which is what everyone implied when they wanted to start A.J. in this game, is a winning strategy.
Dude I’m not even on that side of things, I don’t know the answer… But I think you’re looking at things through too narrow a lens. They were arguing that the Yanks would be putting themselves in better position to win the SERIES by starting AJ vs Lee, and they MIGHT have a point. It’s a matter of proper use and allocation of resources.
You put yourself in the best position to win the series by trying to win every game, not by essentially giving the other team a win. If Lee had come out and shit the bed tonight, no one would be saying anything about starting A.J. in Game Three right now.
But what if you put yourself in a better position to win every game but one, and put yourself in worse position to win that one game? Again… I’m not sure what the right answer is here, and I don’t even think there is one right answer… But to totally dismiss that position? I can’t get behind that. If you tell me, before a series starts, that I can take one pill that will put my team in decent position to win any of the 7 possible games, or another pill that will put my team in EVEN BETTER position to win 6 of the 7 possible games, but worse position to win one of those games, I’m not so sure which option I choose.
Again… Not passing judgment here, I just think there’s a conversation to be had and the AJ vs Lee position shouldn’t be dismissed as easily, and with as much disdain, as it was.
do you think starting Boone Logan in the 9th inning with Mariano Rivera available against Hamilton, Guerrero, and Cruz was putting our team in the best position to win this game tonight?
That’s not it. Winning with Lee on the mound is a low-probability proposition, so rather than fight a losing battle you try to create mismatches elsewhere. It’s a 7 game series, so you reduce your odds in the Lee game (which was a likely loss anyway) and increase them elsewhere. It’s a valid strategy.
They might have a point, but I think the point is weak. It also overlooks the necessity of using A.J. twice potentially. So you’d use him to throw away Game 4 but trust him with Game 7?
Again… That’s fine, I’m not married to Steve’s point (and I haven’t once stated support of that position, tonight or before tonight). I’ve said my piece here, I won’t belabor the point. It’s a moot point, anyway.
Theoretically, you could have pitched:
1: CC
2: Pettitte
3: AJ
4: CC
5: Hughes
6: Pettitte
7: CC
Thereby pitching only CC on short rest, and matching AJ against Lee.
I fully realize that’s hindsight and I didn’t think of it earlier in the week.
That said, I’d like to have a go at defending Nostra-Artists point.
Essentially, given that you can afford up to three total losses, 1 very very likely loss is better than 2 rather likely losses.
Without relatively extreme factors, this choice does not arise, but I’d agree that in this case it does.
Yes, we should believe in the team, and yes, the 9 guys on the field should try to win every game, but:
Cliff Lee is going to pitch twice. Our odds of winning against him are somewhat dramatically poorer than any other Texas starter.
AJ has to pitch a game. It’s hard not to argue that our odds of winning a given game with him pitching are somewhat dramatically poorer than with any of our other starters. It’s definitely the case that he wouldn’t be pitching if there was a remotely better option. (If Javy had been only somewhat mediocre rather than dead for example.
So, there are two total possible games that favor the Rangers because of our pitching.
And there is one which favors the Rangers because of our guy.
We can afford up to 3 losses, no more.
So then it can be restated as a choice between:
A) Not carrying a pitching disadvantage at all into up to 4 games, and carrying up to 3 games where we have a moderate disadvantage
or
B) Not carrying a pitching disadvantageat all into up to 5 games, carrying a moderate disadvantage into 1, and a significant disadvantage into 1
In either case, you try to win every game, but by matching our by far riskiest pitcher to their by far best pitcher, we increase our disadvantage in one game, but decrease the total number of games we’re disadvantaged in.
The counter-argument, that by matching those two you are booting the game and therefore what’s the point, is a tacit admission that we are significantly disadvantaged against Lee, and significantly disadvantaged with AJ to the point that combining the two is virtually guaranteed defeat.
If that’s the case, tomorrow doesn’t look good.
Granted, this is of little value ex-post, but I do feel that Nostra(Steve?) has an extremely defensible view.
I was one of the people who suggested AJ for game three, also. You summarized the logic quite well. And as you say, there are counterarguments, and the idea that you use your best pitcher for every situation and try to win every game is probably, over the course of a long season, the best way to go.
I think using AJ in game 3 would have been sort of a gambler’s move. Yes, you believe in your team, and you want to win, but when the odds are against you, you do not double down, unless you have no other choice.
Going CC, AP, AJ, CC, PH, AP, CC also gives you CC three times, and limits the most questionable Yankee starters – Hughes and Burnett – to 2 games, not 3.
While not accepting Michael Kay’s oft-quoted “fallacy of pre-determined outcome,” the Yankees would have had a much better chance of coming to NY up 2-0 had Andy pitched game 2, instead of Hughes. One can also argue that of all the Yankee pitchers, the one who benefits most from extended rest is Hughes, and the above rota of pitchers has PH sitting until game 5.
I didn’t follow all the threads on this subject so I’m not speaking specifically to anyone or calling anyone out, but Steve’s point about people calling others “idiots” because they express alternate opinions is, I think, too common. In baseball, the trend on blogs has been to accept sabermetrics as bible, or as slide rule, I guess, and any argument which is non-statistically based, or takes a contrarian view, is condemned as stupid, or uninformed.
I got curious after this exchange last night, and decided to model the probabilities a bit.
Given the following assumptions, this is what I came up with.
Assumptions:
The objective is to maximize the probability of winning four out of a possible 7 games.
The probability of a Yankee win in a game not started by Cliff Lee or AJ Burnett is 50%. This ignores home field advantage, park effects, team strengths, differences between other pitchers etc.
The odds of a Yankee win are less than 50% in games started by Cliff Lee and AJ Burnett.
Cliff Lee will pitch two games, and AJ one. (See alternate rotation above)
The decrease in odds associated with AJ pitching are equal to the decrease in odds associated with Cliff Lee pitching (simplifying assumption)
Findings:
Given the above assumptions, the analysis does in fact favor matching AJ against Cliff Lee for the most part. Essentially, given a choice between three games in a best of seven series being disadvantaged equally, and two games disadvantaged, with one being extremely disadvantaged, you have a higher probability of winning the series by “sacrificing” one game to allow for 5 games with a full 50% chance of winning than 4 UNLESS A) the disadvantage to a single game of one of the pitchers pitching is not overwhelming, AND pitching them against each other make the odds of a win in that game disproportionately remote.
Specifically:
If you assume that the Yankees odds are decreased to 45%/game when either AJ or Lee is pitching, the odds of winning AJ vs. Lee must be no greater than 31.05% to justify splitting them up.
If you assume that the Yankees odds are decreased to 40%/game when either AJ or Lee is pitching, the odds of winning AJ vs. Lee must be no greater than 12% to justify splitting them up.
If the Yankees odds of winning are decreased to or beyond 36.92% when either AJ or Lee is pitching, matching them up is the best strategy even if the odds of winning that game are 0%.
So, it comes down to:
What are the Yankees odds of winning against Cliff Lee with a non-AJ starter?
What are the Yankees odds of winning against a non-Lee pitcher with AJ starting?
What are the Yankeed odds of winning AJ vs. Lee?
In order to justify splitting them up, the answer to the third question has to be dramatically worse than the answer to the first two in this analysis.
Seriously. I like Nostra-Artist too, but he’s been nothing at all but gloom and doom.
Sorry for not waving the pom poms when we’re facing a very good team (that’s getting very little respect) and the Yanks are playing like shit in every area. This is how teams lose playoff series. I’m just calling it as I see it.
I said before the series that Texas was a very good team, and a couple of responses suggested they weren’t. They “had a bunch of weaknesses,” etc., was the general gist of it.
The Yankees aren’t hitting, and that’s what’s killing them. The Yankees should have the advantage in this series because a) their offense is much better overall with a tougher lineup 1-9 for a pitcher to face, and b) because overall, the Yankees have a slight edge in pitching.
The best explanation for what’s going on is cold bats, maybe from loss of timing from the layoff. CJ Wilson is good, but not that good, and Colby Lewis should have gotten rocked. Period. OK they get a pass on Cliff Lee, but I still think they should have been able to tax him a little more than they did.
The Yankees were down just 2 runs headed into the 9th inning. If the bullpen pitches like it has all postseason, they have top of the order up and a shot. Which is what most of us were saying. You want to give yourself a chance to win the game. Sorry, but 8 shutout innings is not “utterly predictable.” It’s within the realm of possible outcomes, sure, but Lee had an ERA of 3.00, not zero.
If Lee could have pitched like that for 20 innings we still wouldn’t have scored. And it’s par for the course for him both facing the Yanks and in recent post seasons.
He gave up a run in each game against TB in the first round, against a lesser offense. The assumption of a shutout doesnt make sense to me.
I think it’s playing the odds, Moshe. The odds of winning 4 games with an alternate pitching rotation are better than the one with Andy facing Lee. When the odds are against you, you don’t double down. Like I said above, Hughes pitched at AJ Burnett level in game 2….had Andy pitched game 2, the Yankees might have been up 2-0 before last night. ….which maybe brings up another point: if you are planning this series out in advance, and you know Lee is pitching game 3, you want to really try to be up 2-0 at that point. Given that, you want your two best pitchers going in games 1 and 2, which would have been CC/AP.
I don’t think either approach to Lee is wrong. I think the manager has to play his hunch and hope for the best.
And you could have said the same thing about C.J. Wilson after seven innings in Game One.
No you can’t. Not the part about his track record facing the Yanks and post season history.
Then you could have said it about the Angels last year. Or Pedro or Halladay ever. You don’t run and hide from then just because they’ve kicked your ass in the past.
You’re not going to win a World Series by running away from the best the other team has to offer.
I just want to point out that I feel like you, and the people on your side, keep making these sweeping, conclusive statements (like “you don’t win a World Series by pitching AJ against Lee instead of Pettitte), but those statements really aren’t cogent, reasoned arguments. They’re platitudes. There’s a very strong argument to be made on your side, but you’re not really making it.
You’re also straw-manning the other side a bit. I don’t think Steve is saying he wanted to “punt” a game, or that the Yanks would have had NO chance to win tonight if they had started AJ. He’s saying he’d take the trade off of an increased likelihood of winning tomorrow and pressing the Yankees advantage in game 4 over making an attempt to match Cliff Lee in game 3. You, and others, are mischaracterizing the opposing argument, and that’s not really fair nor does it do much to prove your point.
Right, and isn’t “conceding a loss” a complete contradiction? I thought we were supposed to be pissed off at fans who were automatically giving the game away to Lee, and yet now we’re arguing that pitching Burnett is a guaranteed loss. Can’t have it both ways. AJ could beat Lee, it’s just less likely.
Exactly. Also, if you can manage to take a 2-0 series lead into the Lee game, and you pitch AJ, you are putting AJ in a less stressful situation. He knows the odds are against him; he knows that Girardi and the rest of the Yankees know the odds are against them. So he can simply relax and pitch…if he loses, they’re still up 2-1.
Tonight, there’s alot on AJ’s shoulder. If Texas tees off and jacks 3 homers in the first 4 innings, the Yankees are probably watching the WS.
I disagree in this case. Please see my post above. If the gap between your 3rd and 4th starter weren’t as extreme as they are, I’d agree. Play to win every day.
But if there’s a major gap between your 3 and 4, AND a major gap between their 1 and 2, then I think you should minimize the overall number of games where either their number 1 or your number 4 is pitching.
By matching them, you get an even larger disadvantage in 1 game, but 5, rather than 4 games with no significant disadvantage.
So yes, if not using a 3 man rotation, absolutely. Line up Irabu against Pedro’s game 3/4/5 start. Line up Joba against Lee last year. Etc.
Minimize the overall number of games you have a pitching disadvantage. Even if it means taller odds still in one game. You can still play it to win.
This argument conflates lining up a rotation to minimize the total number of potential games with a significant pitching disadvantage with “running away” and throwing in the towel.
You can afford to lose three games, but would rather not. By matching your 1 inferior starter start with one of the 2 mega-stud-in-average-pitching-staff games, you increase your odds of losing one game but decrease your odds of losing three.
And it’s not running away. It’s strategy. Running away implies that the appearance of “Good AJ” and “Human Lee” is virtually impossible. It’s not. It’s unlikely, but possible, and you can still play to win it.
He gave up 2 HRs to Swisher the last time he was at the stadium. We weren’t down by enough until the 9th where it meant conceding the entire game.
Thank you for the sanity. Seems hard to come by here right around Halloween.
just got a text from AJ Burnett. Says: “how u blogger like mee now?”
In Robertson’s defense, he didn’t get hit hard for the first couple runs. Just found holes.
Offense sucked though. That’s my main problem.
Other than the comeback inning the offense has sucked you know what (excluding Robbie)
Yes. Let’s not overlook this. It wasn’t all Lee’s doing. The offense has looked pretty bad against the other Texas starters as well.
Pettite pitched well, and getting three runs off Lee shouldn’t be considered an impossible task.
I’d say Girardi made the right decision. With Pettite’s performance the Yankees could have won this game, and if you want to think in terms of the whole series it would have put them in terrific position.
That’s the scary part. It’s not ONLY AJ Burnett we have to worry about – the offense has been equally as bad. And when you’re being compared as equally as bad as AJ Burnett, that’s pretty bad.
let’s see if kay says the series is over again
I, for one, am ready for AJ in Beast Mode tomorrow night.
(any rain in the forecast?)
http://bit.ly/bdCKjg
Oh, and go AJ!
Sorry Salty but that photoshop magic means very little to me right now. Very little.
Makes me feel sick to think that a guy who *might* end up schooling us in the ALCS just gets bought with an outrageous contract for a 32 year-old pitcher.
I guess it is what it is.
old saying: if ya can’t beat them
join thembuy them.Can we finally say it …
“TOMORROW IS A MUST WIN.”
First time oft-used phrase holds any weight this season.
Nah, it’s not must win until we literally have to win to continue the season. It’s should win.
I think for everyone’s sanity stay off ESPN and WFAN.
Get back in the mood around game time tomorrow and lets kick their rear end
The game felt a lot like ALCS G3 of 2004 (only we were getting kicked in the teeth)
So time to find some inspiration and get back in it.
The whole offense is out of whack right now.
The performance was embarrassing. Sad day for Yankee baseball.
The Yankees never had less than a 5 run lead after the 4th inning in 2004 ALCS Game 3. That was nothing like this.
and MLB Network
Friday the 13th Part 2 is on AMC…
I was kind of expecting a recap from Mike that would have contained the word “Fuck” no less than 300 times. Good job, Joe. Fight the good fight.
They didn’t hit a single ball on the screws all night (hardest was Jeter’s fly out in the first). Incredible performance from Lee.
Great pitcher pitched a great game (which gets lost in the muck of the 9th inning). Arod’s fly out to left was hit solidly as well, as was Gardy’s hit. But just a dominant start.
Eh, A-Rod’s fly to left field got in on his hands a bit, and Gardner’s single was just a ground ball. But yeah, either way, he was tremendous.
ARod smoked a ball in the LC field gap that Cruz tracked down.
I think ‘smoked’ is really an overstatement. The pitch got in on his hands.
And he smoked it. Just because it’s not hit 100% squarely doesn’t mean that he just dinked the pitch out there, it was a very hard hit ball.
Good hitters can do stuff like that!
michael kay must feel really stupid for making that moronic comment after game 1, saying that the series was over and that the rangers were dead…i cringed when i heard that, and i cringe thinking about it now
yeah, he’s feeling stoopid all the way to the bank.
Do us and yourself a favor: Pay no attention to anything Kay says.
this
you’ll become a more intelligent person as a result
being off for SIX days hurt the timing of the hitters and the sharpness of the pitchers (Halladay was affected as well by the Phillies long layoff, giving up 4 runs to the weak hitting giants).
The league should do something about that, but they won’t since the enjoy anything that hurts the evil Yankees.
Didn’t seem to affect Rangers hitters.
Ok so i’ll be the first to say it…
why wasn’t mariano rivera in the 9th in a still very winnable game (2-0). I’m glad he was saved for a save situation that never could have happened.
also. You know the series sucks when Sergio mitre has more appearances than mariano rivera. Awesome.
tonight is the first night I am perfectly ok with joe girardi taking his binder to chicago. I know the yankees were still losing. But 2-0 vs a top of the order cliff lee or ineffective rangers pen’ would have least been an interesting 9th inning.
now we’lll never know.
If Logan and D-Rob held the Rangers and the Yankees scored 2 in the 9th, you wouldn’t be saying this. In the end – I don’t think it would have mattered. Now we have a fresh Mo to throw 4 out saves for tomorrow and/or Wednesday.
but you don’t judge the validity of the decision on the OUTCOME
even if Logan and D-Rob got the outs they needed, it was still a stupid decision NOT to use your best available pitcher when priority #1 (with just 3 outs remaining) was to put a 0 on the board in the top of the 9th..
you’d really have to reach far to find an explanation to justify this decision from a baseball standpoint
Time for plan B
Hookers and Blow to the Rangers hotel Stat.
Ronnie “Snow” Washington already has that covered.
Meanwhile, Josh Hamilton has been seen buying “The Horse” down an alley off of Jerome Ave
Win tomorrow. Win Wednesday. Win Friday.
Series over. C
fucking depressing game. pettitte was all kinds of awesome. what a shame.
Tomorrow is a MUST win and it’s all up to AJ. We have to sweep games 4,5,6 or we will lose the series. The decision to switch Andy and Phil was an awful one. BUT WHO WILL PITCH GAME 7? There wouldn’t have been a game 7 if Andy had pitched games 2 and 6.
Again, you have a magic machine that shows how games play out in an alternate reality? Kind of cool…
This game sucked. Hopefully the bats can come to life against Hunter and his slop. It won’t be a must win until we’re down 3-1, which I don’ think is happening. We’re bringing this party back to Texas.
“I wish this were a mid-June start rather than a postseason one. Not because the loss would have been essentially meaningless to the Yankees, though that does help. But because I wanted to more fully appreciate Lee’s performance.”
I completely agree with this. He reminds me of a left handed Greg Maddux, in that it’s so difficult to ever pick up a pattern in his pitch selection.
I gotta wonder what those pitches must look like to the batter. From the CF camera they look like low, flat fastballs. But the Yankees looked like deer caught in headlights. They should be the ones with antlers. Especially Gardner’s three-pitch K. The bat looked like it was superglued to his shoulder.
Anyone still want Carl Crawford instead of the best lefty in baseball?
I’d like to sleep from now until 8 p.m. tomorrow just so I can avoid everything and everyone. I don’t want to hear jack fucking shit about this 2-1 deficit.
Ugh me too.
Never in this entire season have I felt so unconfident about this team.
They are playing extremely poorly. No life to them, other than 1 inning.
We all have to pray for 2009 World Series Game 2 AJ Burnett (or this offense http://www.baseball-reference......8210.shtml )
I;m going all out with the positive vibes for AJ tomorrow. It’s a must win.
The Yankees WASTED a great performance from Pettitte by STARTING HIM IN GAME THREE.
Shame on the Yanks for underrating Lee!
All week I was saying “Pettitte will pitch well but Lee will pitch better”
Girardi is a Fool for starting Hughes over Pettitte in game 2 over Andy.
I was on Mike Francesa’s show on Thurs (Avi on the NJ Turnpike) and said this.
The Yanks would be in MUCH better shape if Pettitte started game two.
You’re preaching to the choir here, Avi. I’ve been saying this all week as well. I guess it’s done now and we have to hope to get a good performance from AJ or that the bats come alive. Hughes in Game 6 is essentially our game 7 now. I sure wish we had that Andy Pettitte guy to pitch in that game 6 which is essentially a game 7.
…
The first time you posted here was when you were whining in the game thread.
Blah blah blah. You wouldn’t be saying this is Hughes pitched well. Revisionist bullshit.
exactly
i’m really not all too wrapped up in that decision
Hughes failed more than anyone else in Game 2
let’s say he pitched as well as Pettite tonight and still lost a 3-2, or 4-3 game.. then what??
If you knew Hughes was going to bomb his Game 2 start why didn’t you just tell Girardi so he could set the rotation accordingly? I mean, you knew, right? Why keep it to yourself?
Mike and Joe,
CC starts tomorrow night.
absolutely the wrong move if he doesn’t.
Right or wrong?
It’s right that AJ starts and CC starts game 5. You want AJ matched up with Hunter rather than Wilson.
Not Mike or Joe, but I say “wrong.” I don’t believe in “momentum” and I think you have to plan to win 4 games the best possible way. CC on full rest is better than CC on short, so I’m happy going AJ, CC, Hughes, Andy for the last 4 games. Maybe they won’t need all 4, but at the moment, it’s not looking good. If they don’t start hitting, they could pitch Swisher and it wouldn’t make a difference.
If CC starts tomorrow, what’s your plan for Game Five?
Swisher.
“If CC starts tomorrow, what’s your plan for Game Five?”
1) Pray for rain on thursday.
2) I would start Hughes and Andy on short rest and then CC again in game 7.
I understand not starting Burnett causes you to go with a guy on short rest in three games; but starting Burnett is like forfeiting the game.
As soon as you typed number one, who should have known you were in over your head.
What would you do.
Burnett or CC, Hughes, Pettitte and CC on short rest?
I’d have lined the rotation up exactly as they have. I said that somewhere on the site before the series even started.
Ok. I disagree.
Must have missed when you posted it.
CC is well rested and is probably the guy you worry least about going on short rest. Andy has pitched on three days rest many times, including last post season.
So to me it comes down to AJ on full rest (or WAY too much rest) or Hughes on short rest.
Gimme Hughes 1000%
The first 3 postseason games suggested that the Yankees of September-October were gone. The last three have been pretty much like watching the Yankees’ September performance.
Their offense is measurably better than the Rangers’. Why can’t they hit? Lee was dominant, but with the exception of the 8th inning on Friday, have they hit ANY of the Rangers’ pitchers? Lee was great tonight, but the Yankees certainly helped make him look good.
I don’t get how they can hit Liriano but not Colby Lewis.
Well, with the exception of one inning, they didn’t really hit Liriano. But yeah, when some guys lined out early in the game, I thought they were going to get to Lewis and at least score 4-5 runs. They are ice-freaking cold, and it’s a sick feeling watching them.
If this was a boxing match, the scorecard would read:
Texas 26.5
New York .5
We should be happy it’s only 2-1 going into game 4.
need to add a righty hitter(s) who can bust up lefty pitching this offseason.
we just can’t keep rolling snake-eyes to every fucking lefty who puts on a uniform.
The Yankees hit lefties slightly better than righties during the season. Cliff Lee is a pitching demigod; not much you can do when he’s in a zone.
They hit lefties better overall (barely), but they hit lefty starters worse than righty starters.
vs LH Starters: .258/.342/.426
vs RH starters: .272/.354/.441
Yankees must just really mash lefty relievers.
Meh….they have the best offense in baseball, or nearly the best. They hit lefties fine. They are just freaking ice cold. Which happens, and when it does, you can only pray they snap out of it. Fast.
They hit lefties better than they hit righties this year. Sorry if the facts ruin your narrative.
See my above point though
Brett Cecil disagrees.
I’d just like everybody to join me tomorrow right here on this website around 8pm (same time) where we will all collectively be watching the hit comedy Weekend at Bernies and discuss our favorite parts.
See you then!
What bothered me was by the end of the game, it was clear that Lee was going to keep throwing nothing but strikes. Yet we kept taking pitches and falling behind 0-2. You gotta be aggressive against a guy like Lee.
Its hard not to feel dejected after a game like this, but now is not the time to give up. Tommy Hunter is throwing tomorrow, and though he’s had a good season, he’s very hittable. There is a lot of pressure on AJ tomorrow, but there was in Game 2 of the World Series last year and he came up huge. Sure, he isn’t the same pitcher this year as last, but let’s give the guy a chance. He’s got potential to make hitters miss, and up until the 9th, Texas’ offense didn’t exactly look prolific. We’ve got this.
Anybody watching the postgame on YES?
the three stooges..
Hamilton/Lee/Young
It’s pretty funny I have to hope and pray my 22 mil SS not to swing at balls up by his nostril , my 22 mil 1b not to wave feebly at anything fucking off speed.
Tomorrow I have to hope my 16 mil dollar pitcher to give us a mediocre performance and that’s because my 12 million dollars a year pitcher blew up completely.
Who’s the $12 million pitcher?
Javy Big Game.
Oh yeah. I forgot he was even on the team.
Andy made 12M this season, but he certainly didn’t blow up. He kept us in the game; we just didn’t capitalize.
lolwoops I just saw the comments above.
To think if Javy did not leave his stuff in Atlanta he is probably the #2 or #3 starter for the Yankees.
Jeter is making $21M, and Tex $20M.
Also, if what Andy did tonight is your definition of “blew up completely” what does he have to do to get the “pitched awesomely but wasn’t picked up by the offense” label?
Vazquez.
What does Vazquez have to do with this?
Hes the 12M pitcher that couldnt even make the playoff roster, forcing a guy like AJ to make a crucial playoff start even though he hasnt pitched well in over a month
Meh. I have a hard time believe anyone whining about AJ would actually have been comfortable with Javy making the start tomorrow, even if he was solid this year.
If he pitched like he did in 2009, he would have started game 2 or 3
What is the point? If the best paid team always wins – why play the games?
What sucks is that Roy Halladay > Cliff Lee and Yankees Offense >>>> Giants Offense
Not to mention 2009 Phillies with Cliff Lee >>>> 2010 Rangers with Cliff Lee
This is the most frustrating part.
Giants offense were boppin’ around Halladay but the Yankees wet their diapers against Cliff Lee tonight
I can’t speak for anyone else, but this is why I feel we’re “doomed”:
-. offense can’t hit
- Jeters useless, tex can’t hit anything offspeed, A-Rod, while not 2009 postseason A-Rod, isn’t producing at all, out DHes can’t do squat, Grandy’s not done much this series, Brett needs to stop taking fastballs down the middle
- Burnett tomorrow…50% chance we get a meltdown…down 3-1
- other starters are question marks: CCs been terrible, Hughes had a terrible last start,
- even if we manage to force a game 7, it’s against Lee in Texas…good luck Yankees
It’s troubling. Bottom line: The Yankees have to win the next three games, because they sure as hell aren’t beating Lee in Game 7. He’s just on a whole other level right now.
He had a 0.54 ERA in four dominating starts before the Yankees dropped 5 runs on him in Game 5 of the WS last year. This year has a 0.75 ERA in three dominating starts.
He is very good. He is not unbeatable.
Usually I’m not one of those doom-and-gloom/narrative-creating people, but at the risk of sounding like one, Lee just seems as if he is on a mission. It would take an awful lot to win a Game 7 against him on the road.
He seemed like it last year too. He is really good, but lets not act like he is incapable of making a bad start.
AJ still starting tomorrow
I still believe the Yankees can take the next 3 games.. And If you want to call me crazy go ahead, but I still think the Yankees can beat Cliff Lee. I’d much rather be able to take the next 3 games and not face Lee but we need to take it ONE GAME AT A TIME. If we can take tomorrows game, we’ll worry about Wednesdays and so on. I know I’ve been pessimistic and irrational many times this post season but pull it together guys. We’ve all watched the Yankees up and downs through 162 games, the good, the bad. We can’t give up now, we’re a great team.. I’ll quote a poster I had from the 1996 Yanks… “Never Say Never” We’re down two games to one but we will come out and play well.
And If you want to call me crazy go ahead
You’re crazy, Offense can’t hit.
This offense is more than capable of going all 8th-inning-of-Game-1 at any point. No one hit tonight because Cliff Lee is really good. Tommy Hunter is not really good. The Rangers bullpen is not really good.
We got this.
I expect Hunter to get absolutely wrecked tomorrow. If he actually pitches well and wins, then it’s in all likelihood not in the cards for the Yankees this year.
It will be hard not to say “never” if AJ craps his pants tomorrow night. But for now – I share your optimism.
game 1 fri CC
game 2 sat Andy
off sun
game 3 mon Hughes
game 4 tues CC
game 5 wed Andy
thurs off
game 6 fri Hughes
game 7 sat CC
Would that have worked?
For the record, I’m not saying this because of the situation we’re in. I never really liked the way our rotation was for this series to begin with.
Looks like it would have. I don’t love the way our rotation panned out but even if you changed it our offense still didn’t score for shit. You gotta believe they can turn it on.
It works if you want to ask Hughes to do something almost no pitchers do, work on 3 days rest. Not Lee, not Hamels, not a long list of guys better and, more importantly, older than Hughes. Its a stupid, reckless idea. A small tick better than advocating CC on 2 days rest in Game 7.
Unfortunately, Andy’s an injury risk and Hughes is way past his innings limit. If you go all out to win the ALCS and someone gets injured, that’s not much better. You’ll need both of them to win the World Series.
Besides, the concern for Hughes extends beyond this year. The Yankees are banking on him becoming one of their front line starters for years to come. Is it worth the risk?
Whatever. Seriously, if the Red Sox can come back from 0-3 we can come back from 1-2.
See that’s what I’m talking about! Our offense is one day away from turning it on and hopefully it can happen. Going from seeing a pitcher like Cliff Lee to a guy like Tommy Hunter. Tommy is definitely good but certainly does not even compare to Cliff Lee.
No you can’t. That 2004 team was the most special group of people that ever walked the planet.
Sincerely,
Curt Schilling
Well, as of right now, what I was afraid might happen when the Lee trade fell through, has happened.
Please, please, please, A.J. Remember how you pitched in Game 2 last year and come out like that tomorrow.
And while I’m pleading for things to happen, WAKE THE FUCK UP OFFENSE!!
Also, someone needs to smack Brett Gardner upside the head. Stop sliding into first.
Generally I agree, but part of the reason he might have done it on that play was to avoid a potential tag from Cliff Lee (who was sticking out his glove before he realized Gardner was sliding).
Maybe he should just stop hitting it to the right side?
Agreed. Plus he needs to use his speed more often to get on base. i.e bunt single
Im pretty much shocked that the Yankees hitters looked as pathetic as they did tonight. Not surprised they lost or that Lee pitched great but not to this extent.
Still have faith they will win the next 3 games but for the first time I truly dont think they have a chance in hell of beating Lee so cant see the Yankees winning a Game 7. I know its not a must win till a team is facing elimination but with the way Lee pitched tonight it essentially has become must win games for the Yankees from now on because it looks like they have no chance in hell at beating Lee in a Game 7.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Nnm0KkMadU
Watch and Believe.
Down but not out.
Go Yankees.
tomorrow night: zen baseball
it’s just a game (repeat as necessary)
/trying to keep this series from draining my love of life’d
/trying to keep this series from draining my love of life’d
Had a vision of Robbie Cano and Derek Jeter singing . . . with bluebirds and bunnies and other forest creatures and Joe Girardi tapping his toes:
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
My, oh my what a wonderful game!
Plenty of RBIs heading my way
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
Mister AJ on my shoulder
It’s the truth, it’s actch’ll
Ev’rything is satisfactch’ll
Zip-a-dee-doo-dah, zip-a-dee-ay
Wonderful feeling, wonderful game!
you guys are much smarter than I am but Burnett is really pitching with the season on the line? I don’t want to use him as a cop out cuz the offense blows too but wow! See you on Opening Day fellas.
The season isn’t on the line tomorrow.
If we win tomorrow we got CC on the hill for Game 5 with the series tied 2-2, I don’t get why everyone’s acting like it’s the end of the world.
If someone told me we’d split the games in Texas and lose the game against Lee I would’ve thought that sounded like a very reasonable outcome. No reason we can’t win the next games.
Yep. I’m over it now, Cliff Lee if just too damn good. But if they can’t beat Tommy Hunter tomorrow, A.J. or not, then I don’t know what I’ll do.
But if they can’t beat Tommy Hunter tomorrow, A.J. or not, then I don’t know what I’ll do.
Hug?
Stiff drink? I’ll mix up the virtual martinis. (Or maybe just tequila?)
Yeah…if they can’t hit Hunter tomorrow then it’s legitimately time to panic.
This. The Yankees could have some hybrid-mutant Whitey Ford/Randy Johnson/Clemens/Schilling/Lee/Halladay on the mound, and still lose because they’re not getting any hits off of pitchers they should beat.
If they cant beat Hunter today, they dont deserve to go to the WS. Lee is Lee but these guys have to hit Hunter and hit him hard. Nuff said.
If they can’t hit off Tommy Hunter, then we deserve to lose.
They have to go with what gives them the best chance to win games four and five. Burnett vs. Hunter and Sabathia vs. Wilson gives them a better shot at winning both games than Sabathia (on short rest) vs. Hunter and Burnett vs. Wilson.
If we can’t hit Hunter tomorrow then we’ve no business going to the World Series. Even if AJ gives us a mediocre 5 innning 4 run performance we should be able to overcome it against a pitcher like Hunter. If we don’t then we had bigger problems than pitching. Good pitching beats good hitting in the postseason. We should be good hitting. Tommy Hunter is definitely not good pitching.
Go Yankees.
This.
so how much longer does teix have to suck before he inherits the new “choker” label?
He’s playing like Tino Martinez in the postseason. Just a lot worse.
Just got back from the game one word:
PAINFUL
But what’s done is done and if the Yankees can’t beat the other Rangers starters not named Lee then they should go home.
With that said I got my WS tickets for game 5 and the only way I’m not going to use them is if the Yankees sweep the WS.
GO YANKS
Good lord if Phil Hughes hadn’t been atrocious would people really be having this throw the Lee games argument? The Yankees pulled out a miracle in Game 1, Game 2 they were put in a worse position and couldn’t come back.
I have this feeling that AJ is going to shock a lot of people tonight in a very good way.
Tonight would be the best night for one of those.
Has any pitcher in history had a better one-time chance to redeem a really crappy season? Has any pitcher had a better chance to make people forget a really crappy contract by winning two games?
Exactly, Oh! my God this is a sign I’m actually agreeing with one of your comments.
The Yanks are going to win tonight.
I’m not mad about what happened today, ok well only at the events that transpired in the top of the 9th. I’m actually impressed. That was probably one of the most dominating performances you’ll ever see. 13Ks vs this lineup is a god damn metric ton amount of Ks. Good job, Clifton.
But looking forward…I’m not terribly worried.
Tomorrow the Yanks face Tommy Hunter
Wednesday is CC v. CJ part deux. CC is on full rest, so he shouldn’t be rusty at all.
Thursday is Phranchise v. Colby Lewis part deux, Hughes is also on full rest
Also this is the 2nd time in this series facing CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis. I imagine the Yankee hitters have made the appropriate adjustments. Thinking back to last year’s postseason we hit pitchers harder when we faced them a 2nd time. 3 of the 4 starting pitchers we faced twice in the postseason last year were hit harder the 2nd time around. The only one we didn’t hit harder the 2nd time was John Lackey. The other 3 were Pedro, Saunders and Cliff Lee.
Meh, tomorrow is a coinflip. Then we have our own ace at home on regular rest. Then Colby Lewis has to beat us again while hoping our hard hit line drives are hit directly at his fielders again. Then we can worry about Cliff Lee.
I just hope we dont get a shitty effort from the offense tomorrow, something to the tune of 2 runs and 1 for 10 with RISP
Probably a little presumptuous to think we’ll even put 10 on base haha.
Gotta agree. Cano can’t come up to bat for everyone.
I just checked:
October is National Pitchers From Arkansas Month, or NAPFAM
Hopefully the Rangers line-up will comply as fully as the Yankees’ did tonight
the rotation order is fine. pettitte is 38 coming off an injury and cannot go on 3 days rest and the same for hughes. the problem is there 4th and 5th starters were the worst they have had in forever.
desalvo and rasner pitched as effectivley as aj and javier. and the present crap made $29 mill between the 2 of them…
the yanks offense is no where to be found. 2 years in arow for tex and swisher so far. when do they have to face some criticism? arod has done zilch but he has built up some good will.
jeter and jorge just are fading so to expect those old men to get things done is dreamland……
hate to say it guys but we’re not going to win if a.j. pitches mediocre. Even if we score alot off hunter, bullpen will get warn out
if they have to enter in the 6th inning. I think we’re looking at a giants-rangers world series. I’ll be rooting for the rangers but the giants are winning the whole thing this year.
Their top starting pitching prospects ,which is what the yankees need right now young starting pitching that can dominate possibly, are
1- Chris cabrera 2-Bryan Mitchell 3- Manny Banuelos. Hope we don’t giveup on these particular ones. Betances is decent too.if he doesn’t get hurt. Brackman, banuelos,jesus montero plus aj burnett and we pay aj. burnetts contract for homer bailey of cincinatti seems fair! If we can sign lee next year. Its Sabathia, Lee,Petite, hughes, and Bailey as your fifth starter. I like that rotation if it works out that way!
d00d. Get some sleep. You make no sense.
What are you talking about? That is the best comment ever.
DJ Mitchell…
HAHAHAHAHA Homer Bailey? 100% troll comment. nice try.
Not Homer Bailey. Andrew Bailey.
God the trolls are crawling.
AJ’s gonna blow your minds, tonight.
Sidenote: Buying Cliff Lee would leave a bitter taste in my mouth.
/I keed, I keed, he is ours, he is ours.
It’s a fact: AJ Burnett is 1-0 lifetime in the postseason following a Cliff Lee start.
More worried about the bats that AJ. All three Rangers starters have pitched well. With the exception of one inning they’ve done nothing with men on base. Reminds me of the Tigers series in 06.
They need to start hitting and keep hitting.
This team is toast. Texas toast.
Good news from the game was, for the first time in ages, Jorge’s catching/throwing did not hurt us.
Who is catching AJ? Catching suddenly becomes much more important. Get ready for walks and wild pitch/pass ball merry go round baseball.
I really can’t stand Jeter at the plate. I know he will be back for big money but 2 great pitchers and Nunez at short for the same money seems reasonable to me. That play in the hole where Jeets ran into the tarp before making his throw was sad. He cannot plant!
Aj is good sometimes. Don’t forget, he could pitch a gem. Then we’d be in great shape.
Same crap…. How about we get our bats off our shoulders and do some swinging??? Posada,A ROD and Tex are killing us.
Would you really feel better if they struck out swinging instead of looking? I don’t think you understand how Cliff Lee’s pitches look coming in and what they do on their way to the catcher’s mitt.
Comment of the night from Mike Axisa:
“Yep. I’m over it now, Cliff Lee if just too damn good. But if they can’t beat Tommy Hunter tomorrow, A.J. or not, then I don’t know what I’ll do.”
I think we’re all on the same boat. We don’t invest this much time and emotion into a team to watch Tommy Hunter shut them down to take a 3-1 series lead.
I don’t know what I’ll do either.
Hopefully they can come out of the gate and put a few numbers on the board right away. Set the tone early.
Best line from last night- When Nolan Ryan was asked how much it would cost to keep Lee, he responds “ask the team next door.”
NOLAN RYAN SAYS CLIFF LEE IS ONLY ABOUT THE MONEY!!!
The only two lines I’ve found tonight have the Yankees -140 and -145 which either means Vegas loves A.J. or a couple books think Sabathia is going.
Would it be too outside the box to bat Cano 3rd? That is where the Rangers bat their best hitter/MVP candidate. Increasing your chances of scoring in the first inning as Hamilton has provided with 2 HR’s would seem a reasonable strategy especially since Tex sucks right now.
Even Dave Miley at Scranton realized Montero should bat 3rd this year.
I’m just shocked that Tex’s bat has gone so cold so quickly. I mean he isn’t even making solid contact. It’s either a whiff, pop up or weak grounder. Not saying he is the only one, but he is the one that sticks out the most in my mind.
When Tex is bad, he is really really really bad.
It would be nice to bat Cano 3rd and 5th.
If Lee carries them to a World Series championship this year, do the Rangers pull a Twins with Mauer and say “f*&! fiscal responsibility”, we have to sign this guy? If so, that would be another reason why we really want to win this series.
A Lee driven championship run that compels the Rangers to write him a blank check is the only thing I see keeping him out of pinstripes (barring the unforeseen, of course
). And if the Yanks sign Lee, we can know that is either the last or second to last time we ever have to face him in the playoffs. I took solace in that.
Yankees blank check >>>>> Texas blank check
Lee is not stupid…he will test FA and get huge bucks (esp. after his performance last night)
Your keyboard to G*d’s eyes.