Mailbag: The A.J. Auto-Loss Myth
BySo the Daily News already has an article up about how pitching AJ Burnett will end up costing the Yankees. I don’t understand why…if the Yankees are up or down 3-0, there’s not a chance Girardi doesn’t go with Sabathia in Game 4. Wouldn’t Sabathia pitch Game 4 anyways with AJ getting the ball in Game 5?
Here is said Daily News article. I suggest not reading it, I’ll instead summarize it with blah blah blah A.J. Burnett will cost them the series blah blah blah he stinks blah blah blah. There’s also some cliches in there and the typical doomsday scenario talk. Fresh and original, you know. Nothing but the best.
Anyway, back to reality.
Look, A.J. Burnett was awful this year. He gave the Yankees no chance to win in almost half his starts, and in half of the remaining half he was slightly better than bad. There’s no denying this, and there’s no going back in history to change things or any amount of anything that can make people feel more comfortable about his Game Four start. But guess what, he’s going to start that game, and anyone that thinks it’s an automatic loss needs to get a grip on reality.
Changeup! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Burnett pitched to a 4.83 FIP over the course of the 162-game regular season, slightly better than the 4.99 FIP put up by Rangers’ Game Four starter Tommy Hunter. Over the last three months and change A.J. had a 4.71 FIP, Hunter 5.47. If there’s anyone in the Texas rotation that you want to start Burnett against, it’s Hunter because he is every bit as likely (if not more given the lineup he’ll be facing) to blow up in horrific fashion. You don’t start A.J. in Game Three against Cliff Lee with the mindset of “well they’ll probably lose to Lee and lose Burnett’s start, so they can kill two birds with one stone,” that completely defeats the purpose. The idea is to beat the Rangers and Cliff Lee, not make easy for them. If you’re willing to do that, then just go root for the Mets, it’s a loser mentality.
The Yankees already have the pitching advantage in Game One and it’s no worse than a push in Game Two. There’s nothing they can do about Lee, he’s going to pitch and chances are he’ll be awesome. It’s what the guy does. They don’t have to beat him though, they have to beat the Rangers. Texas had a five run lead against the Yanks in the sixth inning of this game with Lee on the mound, and you know what? They lost. You know why? Because the Yanks chipped away and then punished the Rangers’ bullpen once their ace lefty was out of the game. Andy Pettitte doesn’t have to beat Cliff Lee in Game Three, he just has to keep the Yankees within striking distance. Then it’s up to the offense to do their thing late in the game, just like they did in the ALDS. It’s doable.
Remember, the Yankee pitching staff is in better shape right now than it was last year in the playoffs, when they beat a Cliff Lee led team in the World Series (a team that was better overall than this Rangers’ club, by the way). There was no Phil Hughes then, and they had no choice but to start Burnett every five days (and once on short rest). The regular season is a marathon, but the playoffs are a relay race, a series of one game sprints where literally anything can happen. There’s no better embodiment of that “anything can happen in one start” phenomenon than Burnett, who on any given day can surrender eight runs in two innings or no runs in nine innings. He’s a roll of the dice every time he touches the mound, and that inconsistency is why he’s starting Game Four, not Game One or Two.
If the Yanks do lose the ALCS, it won’t be because of Burnett’s one start. He’s one of 25, and if they drop three of the other six (potential) games in the series, then a whole lot more went wrong than A.J. They’ll win as a team and lose as a team, as they should. No one shoulders the blame by themselves. It’s trendy to trash Burnett, just like it was trendy to trash Joe Girardi in September and say the Yanks would be one and done in the playoffs because of how horribly they struggled. Look how that turned out.
Anyway, there’s my rant for the night. As for the actual question, yeah, I’m pretty sure they’d start Sabathia in Game Four if they were down three games to none. They’d have no choice, and frankly they would have much bigger problems than worrying about Burnett in that situation.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Sun Tzu’s the Art of War suggests in horseracing that you should put your worst horse against their best, your best against their second best, your second best against your third best, and so on.
Of course, it all depends on the circumstances and the details. That said, there is some truth to that strategy, so I don’t think it’s a “loser’s mentality” if it ultimately helps you win.
I understand the strategy, but I’d rather try and cancel out their best with my best, and take my chances with the other matchups, than to cede a game to them and have to recover from being a game down.
Especially since our second best is better than their second best and our third best is better than their third best. Hell, even our fourth best is better than their fourth best.
The Yankees are the best team – there is no need to get cutesy.
I don’t think its “cutesy” at all. As Mike said, Burnett is such a spazz and could find himself in the 9th inning holding the Rangers to zero runs. That is one of the factors that makes me think the Yankees should throw him against Lee.
Pettitte is money in the postseason. We know that. However, he’s not Cliff Lee. I don’t like (potentially) wasting a good start from Pettitte against a guy who could very easily (not in the sense that it would be easy, but in the sense that we’ve seen it before) make it through the ninth inning only surrendering zero or one run.
Even on Pettitte’s best days, he isn’t the type of guy who is going to throw 7-8 shutout innings. Let him throw 6 or 7 innings of 2-3 run ball and get the win against Tommy Hunter.
Burnett, on his best days, can be that guy who goes pitch for pitch with Lee and gets the Yankees a Game 3 W. If not, oh well. Better to lose the most lose-able game with our worst pitcher. Axisa may call that a “Met mentality” but others call it better strategy.
Totally agree Simon. I’m a fan of AJ and believe that he’ll turn it around at some point. I’m just not willing to bank on that yet.
Strategy is strategy. AJ usually throws one of two games… really good where he could compete with Lee just like Pettitte will. Or really shit where you might as well chalk it up to a bad outing and a loss. Pettitte against their fourth starter makes sense. It diminishes the chance of losing two straight… that’s not to say you don’t hope to win both.
Or really shit where you might as well chalk it up to a bad outing and a loss.
But Hunter can be really shit as well, which turns it into a slugfest where your chances of winning are even.
There’s almost no chance Cliff Lee is shit.
There’s a better chance that I’ll bang Posada’s wife than there is that Cliff Lee loses a start.
Fuck Sun Tzu.
I kick he ass, long time.
Sometimes you lose a battle to win the war. Is it a “loser’s mentality” when a pitcher who is owned by a great hitter decides to throw him garbage and/or intentionally walk him? Nope, that’s smart baseball. Let the next guy beat you.
Sun Tzu didn’t throw 95 mph heat.
I know the “sure AJ sucked but their guy sucked worse” part was to dispel the AJ=guaranteed loss stupidity, but yeesh…ugly numbers, ugly memories. Let’s just hope we’re up 3-0 and his start doesn’t matter much.
I know the “sure AJ sucked but their guy sucked worse” part was to dispel the AJ=guaranteed loss stupidity,
Or: it simply means AJ was better than their guy. It means the Yankees probably will and probably should be favored in game 4. It means it’s NOT all about A.J.
Or: it simply means AJ was better than their guy.
Fun Fact: According to fWAR, AJ Burnett is actually the second best 4th starter of the AL playoff teams. The Twins were the only team with better 4th starter candidates, and all three of their guys were either gimpy or shut down altogether.
MIN: Duensing, 1.7 (Baker, 2.5; Slowey, 2.2)
NYY: Burnett, 1.3
TBR: Davis, 0.8 (Niemann, 1.2)
TEX: Hunter, 0.7 (Feldman, 1.1; Holland, 0.8)
That’s…wow. So, as bad as AJ was during the season, other 4th starters were all worse (which is what I thought I was saying).
BTW, unless I’m reading it wrong, b-ref had AJ at -0.1 WAR. Why do they differ by so much, and how badly would a starter have to pitch to rate negative fWAR?
how badly would a starter have to pitch to rate negative fWAR?
Someone else can answer about details of their differences better than I (different metrics factor into the final number), but I don’t think someone would have to be worse, per se, to get a negative rating on one or the other, just bad in different ways.
fWAR is entirely based on FIP, bWAR the results without accounting for BABIP (though I think it includes whether your team’s defense was good or bad). So without checking, I expect bWAR would have Davis and Hunter as better than Burnett, and that’s not really surprising, they certainly had better results than he did this season. But, FIP is sort of helpful in looking forward. Even if I’m not the biggest fan of it.
WAR’s also a counting stat…too lazy to look this up, but did he pitch more innings than the other 4th starters? I would guess so.
I’m guessing he did. With the amount of pain he inflicted on the fans, it now in retrospect seems like he started every game!
“Fun Fact: According to fWAR, AJ Burnett is actually the second best 4th starter of the AL playoff teams. The Twins were the only team with better 4th starter candidates, and all three of their guys were either gimpy or shut down altogether”
You’ll have to explain this shit to me, because I’m looking at Hunters numbers and I see 13-4, 3.73 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
He’s pitched a decent game against the Yankees already this year, which just happened to be against a LESS EFFECTIVE AJ Burnett.
So what exactly is FWAR, and how does it tell anyone that AJ Burnett is better than Hunter?
Thank you. A friend called starting AJ Burnett “AWFUL AWFUL AWFUL” but advocated starting Moseley or Nova. Why do people have all this faith in Moseley and Nova? AJ was really bad, but how many fourth starters are great? Even if there’s a ten percent chance AJ is great, I would still start AJ over Moseley or Nova.
Yeah, the Moseley/Nova > Burnett crowd is pretty ridiculous. The bottom line is that Burnett, if he’s on his game, is perfectly capable of dominating. Neither Moseley nor Nova is; you’re settling for mediocrity at best if either of those two start.
I guess the question there becomes, would you rather have guaranteed mediocrity or the extremes of Burnett? And to be fair, the number of extremely good A.J. Burnett performances makes up a significantly smaller portion of the pie.
I’m not advocating Nova or Moseley, I’m just presenting that as a general question.
You don’t start A.J. in Game Three against Cliff Lee with the mindset of “well they’ll probably lose to Lee and lose Burnett’s start, so they can kill two birds with one stone,” that completely defeats the purpose. The idea is to beat the Rangers and Cliff Lee, not make easy for them. If you’re willing to do that, then just go root for the Mets, it’s a loser mentality.
Muthafuckin’ truthbomb’d
Sometimes people get told (“told” as in beat, owned or pwned(?) for the gamers out there) because they are too stubborn. That comment illustrates a stubborn attitude in my eyes. If the Yankees are accepting a loss in the game that Burnett pitches, it might as well come in the game that they’re most likely going to lose anyway. Forget all this “loser mentality” nonsense. Starting Burnett in Game 3 is a move that improves the chances of winning the series so its actually the complete opposite of a “loser mentality”.
I originally thought that pitching Burnett in game 3 would be a good idea, not because it would be “killing two birds with one stone”, but because if good AJ shows up, there is no doubt that he can beat Lee. If bad AJ shows up, then he would probably lose to whoever he was pitching against anyway.
Its not as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Burnett was a hero last year, and he’s got the stuff to be a hero this year. I am fine with the rotation Girardi choose, and I think there would be even more MSM criticism if he went with Burnett v. Lee saying that the Yankees don’t think they can beat him.
Whatever happens, people need to remember AJ can be great and beat anyone in the rotation. Yankees rotation is much better than the Rangers, so we should just all be happy we have a major advantage in this series.
I’ve heard that logic, but what happens if mediocre/sorta bad AJ shows up and Tommy Hunter gives up 8 runs in the first inning? Or AJ gets Bannister’d by Lee? Far too many people are making the mistake of acting like the only factor in Game 4 is how AJ pitches, as if either teams’ hitting and Tommy Hunter have no say in the matter.
Which is why I changed my mind. Knowing Hunter will be pitching game 4 is relieving.
Oh, right, sorry, my comment wasn’t really directed at you, just the line of thought you presented in the first paragraph that I’ve seen that in other places.
“Which is why I changed my mind. Knowing Hunter will be pitching game 4 is relieving.”
Do you know anything about Hunter?
I wouldn’t say the Yankees rotation is “much better than the Rangers,” if at all, as Lee is elite, and Wilson and Lewis are all in the midst of excellent seasons. That said, the Yankees are the better team, and will win the series.
Sorry I meant that in relation to their opponent. Sabathia has great numbers against the Rangers. Hughes and Burnett have good numbers. Pettitte… not so much, but he’s still an incredible playoff pitcher with a lower ERA this season than anyone on the Rangers rotation.
Meanwhile, CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter don’t have a single win against them. (Even Hughes has a couple wins against the Rangers) These guys are the kind of pitchers the Yankees love to face. Wilson averaged 4.1 BB/9 this season. Tommy Hunter is a contact pitcher, you could even call him a flyball pitcher. His HR/9 is about 1.5 in Rangers Ballpark. Imagine what will happen in Yankee stadium. Cliff Lee is great. Yankees have shown they can beat him before though.
“Tommy Hunter is a contact pitcher, you could even call him a flyball pitcher. His HR/9 is about 1.5 in Rangers Ballpark. Imagine what will happen in Yankee stadium.”
Hunter did not embarass himself against the Yankees in the game he pitched this year, but now all of a sudden you’re making him look like a batting practice pitcher?
And knowing how the Yankees usually perform the complete opposite of what people predict, he’ll probably toss a gem against them, just like other “studs” have done this year such as Davis, Piniero, Blackburn, Moyer, Kendrick, Takahashi, Frasor, O’Sullivan, Tomlin, Shields, and Arrieta.
Right, and you could look at it this way. If ‘Good AJ’ shows up and actually beats Lee, then the series is all but over. You’re either up 3-1 or tied 2-2 with very favorable match ups the next two games.
“Its not as big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Burnett was a hero last year, and he’s got the stuff to be a hero this year.”
Burnett was a hero last year? Tone it down, man.
He threw some good ones, and he threw some shitty ones.
But when the hell was he a “hero”?
“Whatever happens, people need to remember AJ can be great and beat anyone in the rotation.”
Anyone can beat anyone on any given day. Burnett hasn’t pitched a great game against a decent team since I took my pool cover off this year.
“Yankees rotation is much better than the Rangers, so we should just all be happy we have a major advantage in this series.”
It’s not that big of an advantage, chief. The Rangers have a darn good rotation, and they proved it against Tampa Bay, and they proved it in September by posting a rotation ERA of 3 and change.
The Yankee advantage is in the pen.
As for the actual question, yeah, I’m pretty sure they’d start Sabathia in Game Four if they were down three games to none. They’d have no choice, and frankly they would have much bigger problems than worrying about Burnett in that situation.
So much word. This is a really good read in general.
Also if this isn’t too OT, can someone please explain why Hunter’s FIP is so crazy high to me? Is it the serious lack of strikeouts?
Low K’s + 21 HRs in only 128 innings…yeah, that’ll send your FIP into the shitter.
The Yankees are going to bomb him in Game 4.
Ol’ Tommy had a .257 BABIP this year.
Game 1: Not an auto-win
Game 2: Not an auto-win
Game 3: Not an auto-loss
Game 4: Not an auto-loss
Game 5: Not an auto-win
Game 6: Not an auto-win
Game 7: Not an auto-loss
Treating any one of these games as an automatic anything is just really, really, really stupid. Cliff Lee can beat anyone. So can the Yankees. You’re not going to maximize your chances by assuming a loss
Couldn’t have said it better myself. The “not an auto-win” part is important, too. If it’s 1-1 or 0-2 after 2, I hardly see anyone advocating for Burnett to start game 3 then. People need to stop planning out who wins and loses games in this series and crying accordingly.
Why are you assuming pitching AJ vs Lee to be an automatic loss? Isn’t that what you just called “stupid”?
(Scratch the word “automatic” from above. It should read-
Why are you assuming pitching AJ vs Lee to be a loss? Isn’t that what you just called “stupid”?
I wasn’t. I was saying that there is literally not a single game in this series that is an automatic anything, and arranging your rotation based on presupposed wins and losses is stupid.
I was advocating pitching your starters in order from best to worst, and not considering head-to-head pitching matchups, which are more a myth than anything. The pitcher faces the opposing hitters, not the opposing pitcher.
The only logic that would back pitting AJ against Lee is the presupposition of the AJ auto-loss and/or the Cliff Lee auto-loss. AKA the “killing-two-birds-with-one-stone” approach. I would argue that the Yanks have somewhere around a 50% chance of winning an AJ start against someone other than Cliff Lee, and have about a 35% chance of beating Lee without CC on the mound. Pitting AJ vs. Lee would take one percentage of the other, though, which would mean giving your team a little over 15% chance to win one of the games.
I would rather take two games where the odds of a Yankee win are (admittedly arbitrarily assumed to be) between 30% and 50% than one game under 20%. It ultimately comes down to attitude. Are the Yankees trying to win more games or lose fewer? I’d rather they try to win BOTH of those games than take the “well if we win great, but we’ll take the one loss” attitude of putting our worst starter against their best.
There is an argument to be made for doing so, but I don’t think it’s a smart one in an anything-can-happen postseason series. It’s kind of a Murphy’s law thing – if you try to outsmart the system, it’ll bite you in the ass.
“Why are you assuming pitching AJ vs Lee to be an automatic loss? Isn’t that what you just called “stupid”?”
Shit man, if Cliff Lee loses to AJ Burnett, Brian Cashman might break down and cry.
I believe in Big Game (Allan) James. You should believe too. He has earned his pinstripes–stop with the meme/narratives crap. We all know his shortcomings, and we also all know that they were dead in the water without him last year. Buck up.
I say start AJ against Lee, not only because of the chance of Good AJ appearing, but it seems lately that every time good AJ shows up, he summons rain. We then get a rain delay, and Cliff Lee is out of the game.
Are we doing that again for Game 7, heaven forbid?
I’m not sure AJ can, you know, actually summon rain.
Oh ye of little faith.
I won’t FJM the entire awful Filip Bondy article, but I have to at least comment on this:
These aren’t the Twins anymore. The Yanks don’t get to beat up on Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing in the ALCS. The Rangers…now bring three smoldering pitchers – C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and Lee.
Meh.
Blind taste test time!
Pitcher A – 3.62/2.66/3.06 E/F/x
Pitcher B – 3.75/4.02/4.01 E/F/x
Pitcher C – 2.62/3.85/4.10 E/F/x
Pitcher D – 3.18/2.58/3.23 E/F/x
Pitcher E – 3.35/3.56/4.20 E/F/x
Pitcher F – 3.72/3.55/3.93 E/F/x
The first group is the Twins top three of Liriano-Pavano-Duensing. The second is the Rangers troika of Lee-Wilson-Lewis.
Nick Bakay would call that a classic “push”. It’s not like one group is the early ’50s Indians (Lemon-Feller-Wynn-Garcia “an ace every night”) group and the other is the early ’90s Mets dreck. The Twins pitching is good but not great, the Rangers pitching is good but not great. Are the Rangers better? Maybe. A lot better? No, not really.
I’m not buying it, Filip.
Add-ons:
The end of that sentence: – and may go back to one or two of them (circa Arizona, 2001) in tight relief spots, late in the series
1) It’s impossible for them to go to two of them, assuming everyone makes their starts. Lee could relieve in game 7 and that’s it. Wilson and Lewis aren’t coming out of the pen the day before, or day after they start.
2) This is said as if the Yankees can’t do the exact same thing.
While it is true that Burnett generally recovers for a strong second inning, he then is quite likely to suffer a major implosion in the third. His ERA in the first inning this season was 7.09; in the second, it was 2.73; in the third, it was 8.62.
Even if you ignore the uselessness of 30-33 IP of data here, which I’m certain Filip does, it doesn’t mean he’s “quite likely to suffer a major implosion” in the third, it means he’s “quite likely to give up a single run.”
Even if you ignore the uselessness of 30-33 IP of data here, which I’m certain Filip does, it doesn’t mean he’s “quite likely to suffer a major implosion” in the third, it means he’s “quite likely to give up a single run.”
What the hell are you talking about? The guy was stating a fact, and that fact is that Burnett IS NOT fine and DOES NOT recover once he gets past the first inning. That was what his comment was a response to, and it’s true.
If Burnett was recovering, then he’d be going 7 strong a game……..which he clearly WAS NOT doing.
“The first group is the Twins top three of Liriano-Pavano-Duensing. The second is the Rangers troika of Lee-Wilson-Lewis.
Nick Bakay would call that a classic “push”.”
Oh, that’s a great blind test!! You have to be blind to believe it.
Pitcher C from the Twins has a 2.62 ERA……..pitcher D from Texas has a 3.18 ERA.
Pitcher C: Duensing.
Pitcher D: Lee.
And including the peripherals, pitcher A even looks around even with Lee. Which we know is nonsense.
A “push”, my ass.
This post got me really pumped up for the series. I can’t wait to beat Neftali Feliz in Game 3 and then beat Tommy Hunter 10-7 to finish off the sweep.
I sumbited this question wutwut
Anyways, it just pisses me off how this article was ever thought about being written. AJ won’t take the ball in Games 1 or 7 and if the Yankees are down (or up) 3-0 there’s not a chance he pitches Game 4.
Plz use logic
I don’t think AJ starts Game 4 if they’re down 2-1, either. Besides the obvious reasoning, it’s one thing to not plan for all seven games to happen at the start of a series, it’s another when you need to win 2 of 3 just to get to Game 7. At that point, it becomes likely if the Yankees are going to win, it’s gonna take 7 games. So, you plan accordingly. And as far as concern about CC going a 2nd time on short rest, you could have him on the shortest of short leashes with a fully rested Andy Pettitte ready to come in.
If they’re up 3-0 they’re not putting CC on 3 days rest. Aj wins, CC gets a break. AJ loses, they have CC on full rest.
Anyways, it just pisses me off how this article was ever thought about being written. AJ won’t take the ball in Games 1 or 7 and if the Yankees are down (or up) 3-0 there’s not a chance he pitches Game 4.
Why would Burnett not get the ball if the Yankees are up 3-0 in the series?? That makes no sense.
The article basically says that the Yankees are wrong to ink in Burnett as a starter in this series regardless of the situation……and I agree with that. If the Yankees drop the first 3 games, you CANNOT start him. Girardi has to be flexible about that. Even being down 2-1 and sending Burnett to the mound is dicey.
It could also rain.
30% chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday in NY. Arlington looks clear though.
I wonder if AJ was pitching Game 4 for the Rangers and Hunter was pitching for the Yanks, I betcha people wouldn’t have the same loom and gloom or Newspaper articles painting game 4 as an automatic loss despite the fact that both numbers suggest that both pitchers are quite shitty.
“I wonder if AJ was pitching Game 4 for the Rangers and Hunter was pitching for the Yanks, I betcha people wouldn’t have the same loom and gloom or Newspaper articles painting game 4 as an automatic loss despite the fact that both numbers suggest that both pitchers are quite shitty.”
What numbers do you have that suggest Tommy Hunter is “quite shitty”?
aj is a ho but!!!
/juvenile reaction to picture’d
I was a big proponent of the AJ signing. He will come up big in Game 4.
We all make mistakes….
I wasn’t. He was a mid-to-decent pitcher that the Yankees were courting like a superstar. You know why Burnett sucks? He doesn’t get to face the Yankees anymore. If you took away the games he pitched against the Yankees in 2008, you’ll realize that the Yankees handed 82 million bucks to a man who posted a 4.30 ERA against the rest of the league.
AJ = Brutal Intractable Quagmire
I’d still rather start Sabathia in Game Four just so he can line up for Game Seven, just in case. Whatever, though. This is the Yankees. I’ve learned to doubt them in as few instances as possible. Of course, like everyone else here, I’m fixing the bayonets and am highly confident that the Yankees can win this thing without a) needing to go seven games and b) needing CC to pitch three times.
Yea. We are really the superior team. This series should not go seven, let alone six really.
Saying you have the best 4th starter is like saying your the tallest midget in the circus. Both Hunter and Burnetts FIP’s are well above league average, your splitting hairs there. Hunter isn’t as effective outside of Texas. Burnett’s been there done that, Hunter is in the deep end of the pool, Advantage Yankees. Mentioning what NY did to Lee in one regular season game is pointless, the guy is a beast in post season, so is Pettitte.Yanks in 6
“Burnett’s been there done that, Hunter is in the deep end of the pool, Advantage Yankees.”
LMAO!!!! Been there, done WHAT? Shit the bed in the postseason? Yup, he’s done that alright!
As bad as Burnett has been this year, his postseason ERA is even higher!
I think I’d rather take my chances with the guy in the deep end of the pool. At least he’s got a swimmer’s chance!
@ Matt Imbrogn you don’t want to see a game 7 in Texas bro, if it gets to that point it’s too late to close the barn door
“If you’re willing to do that, then just go root for the Mets, it’s a loser mentality.”
EXACTLY!
Down 3-0, why start CC on short rest if you have to win 4 straight anyway? Burnett would just have to pitch Game 5 (and win) instead
Agreed, if your down 3-0 the following is likely;
1) Most of your top three laid an egg
2) You still need four pitchers due to age (protect PH, rust on AP)
3) If the bats have been dormant, they are likely to awake vs their #4 starter.
3) You really don’t want AJ against Wilson, down 3-1
Most of the panic seems predicated on the idea that we might be down 0-3 or 1-2 games when AJ gets the start. I know anything can happen and I don’t assume any wins, but I honestly see us no worse than 2-1 at that point. So even if AJ blows up (which I don’t assume btw), we’re in good shape.
And as I write this I keep hearing the “AJ threw wild in a simulated game” sound bite on 1010 WINS.
The Yanks can hit Cliff Lee. We are not the Rays. And AJ really should be expected to pitch well. Its not like he fell off a cliff this year. He had a down year, but his stuff is still there. He should pitch a good game.
AJ hitting guys in practice is a good thing. Texas will not be digging in and looking to duck instead. The only fly in the ointment is that AJ will have to throw strikes. It’s a push.
Also worth pointing out they play three straight days – Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday next week. Unless of course the Yanks sweep.
Using your least effective starter on Monday (game 3) would potentially wreak havoc on the pen with two more full games left without a day off.
AJ will be on a short leash. The hole shouldn’t be too deep before you bring in your long guys to soak up innings in case of an AJ blow up.
Well… one problem is that War is easier to predict then baseball. The truth is you can debate the best pitching ‘strategy’. It’s fun for all us wannabee managers. However, the games will be won or lost on the players performances.
In September, we played like crap, which was especially demonstrated by our RISP. And we played .333 ball. But in October, we swept the Twins. Anyone see what our RISP was in October?
The bottom line is we have more talent then Texas. Our offense is better. Our pitching could be better, but we are never really sure what we will get from Phil, and of course with AJ……
How we lay out the pitching matchups might give us a slight advantage one way or another, but it won’t matter. You almost always see very good pitching in the PS (duh). And on average, we all know that excellent pitching beats excellent hitting. But a 7 game series is a ‘samll sample’ size, and our offense can kill any pitcher on any given day.
When we hit, we win.
CC, Andy and Phil (and even AJ) are all capable of pitching shutout ball. But on any given day, any individual man can be off and get lit up. But even if ONE guy is off, we have NINE other guys who have something to say.
I predict it’s all about RISP.
Much truth here…but I would be more vague and just say “it’s all about the lumber”.
4-5 homers would likely carry the day as well…them being with man-on-first or solo variety doesn’t matter much.
My main issue with starting AJ over CC in game 4 is that CC now has no chance to go in game 7. I trust Pettitte, but still he’s no CC….
Last night I was watching Sportscenter (for about 3 seconds because it’s a waste of time) when they interviewed Josh Hamilton about the supposed “curse” against the Yankees, because the Yankees owned the Rangers in ’96, ’98 and ’99. His reaction was “Uhh… what curse?” Then with a big grin he says “Hey didn’t we sweep them four straight here in August?”
Guess what Josh, it was 3 straight and Javier Vasquez and Dustin Mosley aren’t starting these games. When you have to come into YSIII down 2-0 that dumb smirk is going to be wiped right off your face.
My Burnett Game 4 Predicted Line: 6 1/3 7H 3R 3BB 6KO … good enough for a win.
I don’t begrudge the opposition a little smack talk — it’s part of the game — but you’re right, they won’t be facing a banged-up squad and our B-list starters this time around.
Nice rant. I thought from a pure strategy pov, lining up AJ with Lee had some merit, but I’ve been convinced otherwise. Remember AJ doesn’t have to throw a gem. Just keep it within 2-3 runs over 5. It’s the day before an off-day, so hopefully the pen can absorb the rest.
AJ admitted that his simulated game was horrible. I don’t know. I think AJ v. Lee makes sense if we’re up. If we’re not, it has to be Andy Pettitte.
Also the Rangers had success with the running game against Tampa and I am pretty sure they’ll run all over the place on us. The running game will rattle AJ but not Andy.
I think the idea is great (aj vs lee) it not about how someone mindset is or killin two birds with one stone it about being logic and strategic that all .. The probability that good aj will come out in game 4 is slim and the probability that lee will win is greater than Andy P .. Mark my words Yankees will win in game 6 in Texas with Hughes on the mound but could of been avoided
Is it a guarantee? Why are you acting like there is a sure thing out there and the Yankees refuse to take it.
Not meantioned is the fact that Lee needs to be a little more perfect with his pitches with Pettitte and our lineup then he had to be against Tampa. If we lose game three with Lee needing to go 120-130 pitches over 7-8 innings, it could factor into a shorter G7 start (if it actually went that far).
He was in their heads, leaving straight gas down the middle when up 0-2 to Evan & Upton. I didn’t see him try that crap against the Yankees last year and we have built the standard of staying in to win the next pitch. Lee was raping the Rays mind with his selection, I’m sure the yankees are prepared to make that adjustment if necessary.
Dang, Mike really let it rip. Great post. Enough said.
“1 out of 25″ “win as a team, lose as a team”
Fresh and original indeed.