Archive for October, 2010
Rangers hitters present a different challenge than Twins
Posted by: | CommentsThe Twins and the Rangers produced similar offensive outputs this season. They scored nearly the same number of runs per game and produced almost identical triple slash numbers. But what holds true for a season does not necessarily carry into the playoffs. Justin Morneau brought up Minnesota’s season numbers, but he wasn’t there to help in the ALDS. The Rangers had a number of poor hitters suppressing their season batting totals, a few of whom aren’t present on the ALCS roster. Determining how these teams stack up takes a bit more work. We’ll have to compare the specific hitters currently on the team.
First Base
With the Yankees leaning heavily on CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte this postseason, teams will face a barrage of left-handed pitching. That worked out for the Twins in terms of production from first base. Michael Cuddyer had a poor year overall, but he did mash lefties. The Rangers have no such first baseman.
They acquired Jorge Cantu to give them some right-handed prowess at the position, but that didn’t work out. He actually hit righties a bit better, which renders him essentially useless. Ron Washington penciled him into the Game 1 lineup, but in Game 5 he went with Moreland. This creates an advantage for the Yankees, since their lefty-heavy pitching staff can take away a power position.
On the flipside, Moreland is about as good against righties as Cuddyer is against lefties. This will give the Rangers an edge in Games 2 and 4.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler had a fine season, but it was shortened by injuries. Right there is a prime example of why overall team numbers might not tell the full story. His batting eye against lefties is superb, even if his power lags a bit. He’ll present a more formidable foe than Hudson against both left- and right-handed pitching. Sabathia and Pettitte could have quite a difficult time keeping him off base.
Third Base
After his excellent 2009 season, 2010 was quite the disappointment for Michael Young. He hit lefties well, which bodes well for him in Games 1 and 3, but he didn’t hit them quite as well as young Valencia. Against righties Young is a bit better, but he still struggles to get on base. Using Hughes in Game 2 will also help offset Young’s advantage in home performance. He was much better there than on the road in 2010.
Shortstop
While the number suggest Hardy’s superiority, I’ll break with them in this instance. Andrus’s wOBA is deflated by his complete lack of power — he had just 18 extra base hits all season. But he did have a respectable .342 OBP, which goes a long way when you have speed. He’s not the best base stealer, getting caught in 15 of 47 attempts, but he’ll be making those attempts against Jorge Posada this series. So while he might not be a threat to hit more than a single, Yanks pitchers still have to be careful for him. He could be standing on third within two pitches.
Left Field
The Rangers employ an outfield platoon that involves David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, and Jeff Francoeur. As you can see, Cruz is an equal opportunity masher, producing similar numbers against both left- and right-handed pitching. He’ll play in left field against lefties and right field against righties. His platoon partner in left is David Murphy, who has done a quality job against right-handed opponents this season. This gives the Rangers a bit more balanced an attack than the Twins, who were stuck with Delmon even against righties.
Center Field
Herein lies the biggest advantage the Rangers have over the Twins. Again, the Rangers overall season numbers were held down a bit because Hamilton missed the entire month of September. But he’s back now. This might look bad for Phil Hughes, who enters the death cauldron by facing Hamilton as a righty and in Arlington. But the Rays’ righties, Matt Garza and Wade Davis, held Hamilton hitless at Arlington in the ALDS. In fact, he picked up just two hits, one in each of the first two games. His rib problems could be the great equalizer in this series. But if he starts to feel better, in the words of Ken Singleton, look out!
Right Field
The Rangers brought in Jeff Francoeur in order to hit lefties, and he has to a reasonable degree. He helps create an ideal outfield situation, wherein Murphy sits against lefties and Francoeur sits against righties. That gives them the best possible production. Frenchy presents a bit more of an on-base threat than Kubel — which is just weird to type — when facing opposite-handed pitchers, but Kubel was the bigger power threat. As long as Sabathia can handle him in Game 1, I think Pettitte will be just fine facing him in Game 3 at the Stadium.
Catcher
While the Rangers clearly have a stronger outfield, they have a complete black hole behind the plate. Molina will start against lefties because apparently he can draw a walk. Sabathia and Pettitte, though, will be stingy. But no matter how they do it, they won’t have a quality catcher at the plate. This discrepancy is on the level of the one in center field.
Designated Hitter
The Yankees did a good job of neutralizing Thome in the ALDS, though throwing two lefties certainly helped. They’ll face a similar situation with Vlad in the ALCS. He’s hit both lefties and righties well this season, but where they’ll really have to watch out is in Arlington. He has better numbers there, understandably so. Sabathia’s changeup and Phil’s high fastball will go a long way in doing to Vlad what they did to Thome.
Kevin Long and the Home Run Drill
Posted by: | CommentsThis year we’ve heard plenty about Kevin Long’s Home Run Drill, an exercise that he uses to help hitters shorten their swings and generate more power. Today at the Star Ledger Brendan Prunty describes the history of the drill. It started when Long was a hitting coach in the Kansas City system, and he nearly scrapped it before one hitter experienced exceptional results. Now the Yankees are using it to their advantage, none more prominently than Robinson Cano. This is just another reason why Long will become the highest paid hitting coach in the league when he signs a new contract this off-season.
Mailbag: The A.J. Auto-Loss Myth
Posted by: | CommentsSo the Daily News already has an article up about how pitching AJ Burnett will end up costing the Yankees. I don’t understand why…if the Yankees are up or down 3-0, there’s not a chance Girardi doesn’t go with Sabathia in Game 4. Wouldn’t Sabathia pitch Game 4 anyways with AJ getting the ball in Game 5?
Here is said Daily News article. I suggest not reading it, I’ll instead summarize it with blah blah blah A.J. Burnett will cost them the series blah blah blah he stinks blah blah blah. There’s also some cliches in there and the typical doomsday scenario talk. Fresh and original, you know. Nothing but the best.
Anyway, back to reality.
Look, A.J. Burnett was awful this year. He gave the Yankees no chance to win in almost half his starts, and in half of the remaining half he was slightly better than bad. There’s no denying this, and there’s no going back in history to change things or any amount of anything that can make people feel more comfortable about his Game Four start. But guess what, he’s going to start that game, and anyone that thinks it’s an automatic loss needs to get a grip on reality.
Changeup! (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Burnett pitched to a 4.83 FIP over the course of the 162-game regular season, slightly better than the 4.99 FIP put up by Rangers’ Game Four starter Tommy Hunter. Over the last three months and change A.J. had a 4.71 FIP, Hunter 5.47. If there’s anyone in the Texas rotation that you want to start Burnett against, it’s Hunter because he is every bit as likely (if not more given the lineup he’ll be facing) to blow up in horrific fashion. You don’t start A.J. in Game Three against Cliff Lee with the mindset of “well they’ll probably lose to Lee and lose Burnett’s start, so they can kill two birds with one stone,” that completely defeats the purpose. The idea is to beat the Rangers and Cliff Lee, not make easy for them. If you’re willing to do that, then just go root for the Mets, it’s a loser mentality.
The Yankees already have the pitching advantage in Game One and it’s no worse than a push in Game Two. There’s nothing they can do about Lee, he’s going to pitch and chances are he’ll be awesome. It’s what the guy does. They don’t have to beat him though, they have to beat the Rangers. Texas had a five run lead against the Yanks in the sixth inning of this game with Lee on the mound, and you know what? They lost. You know why? Because the Yanks chipped away and then punished the Rangers’ bullpen once their ace lefty was out of the game. Andy Pettitte doesn’t have to beat Cliff Lee in Game Three, he just has to keep the Yankees within striking distance. Then it’s up to the offense to do their thing late in the game, just like they did in the ALDS. It’s doable.
Remember, the Yankee pitching staff is in better shape right now than it was last year in the playoffs, when they beat a Cliff Lee led team in the World Series (a team that was better overall than this Rangers’ club, by the way). There was no Phil Hughes then, and they had no choice but to start Burnett every five days (and once on short rest). The regular season is a marathon, but the playoffs are a relay race, a series of one game sprints where literally anything can happen. There’s no better embodiment of that “anything can happen in one start” phenomenon than Burnett, who on any given day can surrender eight runs in two innings or no runs in nine innings. He’s a roll of the dice every time he touches the mound, and that inconsistency is why he’s starting Game Four, not Game One or Two.
If the Yanks do lose the ALCS, it won’t be because of Burnett’s one start. He’s one of 25, and if they drop three of the other six (potential) games in the series, then a whole lot more went wrong than A.J. They’ll win as a team and lose as a team, as they should. No one shoulders the blame by themselves. It’s trendy to trash Burnett, just like it was trendy to trash Joe Girardi in September and say the Yanks would be one and done in the playoffs because of how horribly they struggled. Look how that turned out.
Anyway, there’s my rant for the night. As for the actual question, yeah, I’m pretty sure they’d start Sabathia in Game Four if they were down three games to none. They’d have no choice, and frankly they would have much bigger problems than worrying about Burnett in that situation.
Yankees announce ALCS roster and rotation
Posted by: | CommentsVia Bryan Hoch, the Yankees have announced their roster and rotation for the upcoming American League Championship Series. The roster is unchanged, it’ll be the same 25 guys they played with against the Twins, but the rotation is slightly different. CC Sabathia will of course go in Game One, but Phil Hughes will get the ball in Game Two, not Andy Pettitte. Pettitte and A.J. Burnett will then start Games Three and Four, respectively. I assume that the only way Sabathia will pitch on short rest in Game Four is if the Yanks are down three games to none in the series.
Hughes has superb numbers in Arlington for his career, but that covers about 15 innings spread across four seasons. I suspect that had little value when they put the rotation together, and it had more to do with lining up Pettitte for matchups with Cliff Lee.
Open Thread: Same old A.J.
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Unhappy with being a platoon DH, Lance Berkman will now be performing the YMCA with the grounds crew after the sixth inning. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The big news from A.J. Burnett‘s simulated game this afternoon is not that he threw 80-plus pitches for the first time in close to two weeks, not that he felt great about his curveball and changeup, but that he plunked two batters. In a simulated game. He got Greg Golson with a two-seamer on his fifth pitch (after his first sailed to the backstop) before getting Austin Kearns with another two-seamer later on. It wouldn’t be an A.J. Burnett outing without erratic command so this is just par for the course. I can’t wait until those two pitches to Golson and Kearns are extrapolated into more #LowPitchingIQ articles and the like. It wouldn’t be the same old A.J. without ‘em.
Oh, and apparently Mark Teixeira has a black eye. He says he got it while messing around with his son. Whatever, as long as he keeps hitting bombs and catching everything hit within a time zone of first base, he can do whatever he wants off the field.
Here’s tonight’s open thread. The Knicks are playing the Celtics in preseason action (meh), and both the Isles and Devils are playing real games that mean something (not against each other). Yeah, it’s that kind of night. You guys and gals know what to do, so have at it.
For the ALCS, an expensive ticket and a promo
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Our partners at TiqIQ have some graphs — and tickets — for the upcoming American League Championship Series. The above graph came out before Major League Baseball announced that Game 5 would be an afternoon affair, but as you can see, tickets start out expensive and get even more so as the series progresses. Notably, TiqIQ says that over the five days prior to Game 3 of the ALDS, ticket prices shot up by more than 60 percent. If it looks like the Yanks are going to clinch or if the series is tight, tickets will be in higher demand.
While the gist of the graph below is that bleacher seats are still cheaper than the rest of the park, even sitting behind the outfield walls will cost a pretty penny for the postseason. Average resale prices for the bleachers is in excess of $200 a seat, but it’s well worth the experience. I saw Game 2 of the 1998 ALCS from the bleachers at old Yankee Stadium, and the crowd erupted when Chuck Knoblauch’s mental error cost the Yanks the game.
As always, we have a wide array of tickets available for these games at RAB Tickets, and despite the high average prices, bleacher seats can be hard for around $100-$120 a pop right now. We’re also running a promo for the week. If you make a purchase of $500 or more on Ticket Network only — basically the equivalent of two tickets for one game — put in the code rab28 for a 5 percent discount. Finally, if you’re interested in tickets in Texas for Games 1 or 2, we have those available as well. You can find ALCS Game 1 seats right here and ALCS Game 2 seats here.
The need for good Thames against Texas
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Mr. Thames to you. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)
Marcus Thames has been everything the Yankees could have possibly asked him to be and then some. He was brought in to hit lefthanded pitching and has done just that (.300/.352/.454, .354 wOBA), but he’s also been much better than expected against righthanders (.268/.347/.549, .382 wOBA). He’s produced numerous big hits throughout the year, like this walk-off homer against the Red Sox, this walk-off single against the Blue Jays, this go-ahead homer against the Jays, and of course this go-ahead single against the same Rangers’ club that the Yanks will face in the ALCS starting Friday. As good as Thames has been this season, his team is going to need just a little bit more out of him against Texas.
Although neither team has officially released their ALCS rotation yet, the Rangers are expected to start the series with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis before giving the ball to Cliff Lee in Game Three. Tommy Hunter is your probable Game Four starter. It’s highly likely that each team will win at least one game at some point, meaning that Texas will be able to give the ball to a southpaw three times in the first five games of the series (Wilson twice, Lee once). These aren’t your everyday lefthanders either. Wilson annihilates batters of the same hand (lefthanded batters had just a .205 wOBA with just five doubles and no homers off him this season) and Lee … well … is Cliff Lee.
Even though Curtis Granderson has improved immensely against lefties since working with Kevin Long (.380 wOBA vs. LHP since the changes that, ironically, took place in Texas), his offensive ability is likely to be somewhat compromised during those three games. Ditto Brett Gardner, even though he was more than respectable against lefties this season (.332 wOBA, .351 vs. RHP). Alex Rodriguez was uncharacteristically awful against lefthanders this year (a solid .335 wOBA, but Alex is held to different standards than mere mortals) as well. That’s why they need Thames to be on top of his game, he’s got to pick up the seemingly inevitable slack.
The good news is that Marcus has already shown he can do that, albeit in a tiny sample. When Mark Teixeira was away with his birth-giving wife in early August, Thames not only stepped in as the three-hole hitter for two games, he basically replaced (or even improved upon) Tex’s production as well. He went 5-for-10 with a homer in the two games (started by Wilson and Lee of all people), with one of the hits being that go-ahead single linked above. He took Frank Francisco deep one inning before that to bring the Yanks to within one. Of course it was all or nothing for Marcus that series, because he struck out in the five plate appearances in which he didn’t get a hit. That’s the trade off you get with a guy like him though.
The Twins learned the hard way that the Yankee lineup is extremely deep with no easy out(s), especially their two lefties Francisco Liriano and Brian Duensing. Thames was a big reason for that, as he has been all season, but the team still needs a little more out of him. They know that, he knows that, the other team knows it, everyone does. Thames has been worth every penny of his $900,000 salary so far this season, but the job isn’t done yet.
Aside: That’s easily my favorite picture of the season so far. So badass. Here’s that play, if you’re curious…Also, check out this Wall Street Journal piece on Thames. Mike Sielski spins a great tale of Thames’ friendship with former Yankee farmhands Jeff Nettles and Drew Henson as well as his time in Detroit.
Lining up the ALCS rotation
Posted by: | CommentsWe know the who. But beyond Game 1, we don’t know the when. As in, when do Hughes, Pettitte, and Burnett pitch? It might seem like a straightforward situation, but it doesn’t have to be. The Yankees can exploit the schedule to give them the best possible rotation in the ALCS.
Starting Sabathia on three days’ rest
(Jim Mone/AP)
The first question the Yankees have to answer is whether they will start CC Sabathia on three days’ rest in Game 4. It worked last year, and since the Yankees face a pitching situation similar to last year’s, they will certainly consider it. If everything goes well, going with CC in Games 1, 4, and potentially 7 makes sense.
No one wants to wear down Sabathia. He is, after all, under contract for the next five seasons and figures prominently into the team’s plans during that time. But he also figures prominently into the team’s 2010 postseason plans. He’s clearly the team’s best starter, and the Yankees should use that to their advantage.
As was the case last year, Sabathia is well rested heading into the ALCS. After he pitches on Friday he’ll have made two starts in 17 days. This isn’t a situation akin to 2008, where he pitched on three days’ rest down the stretch and was worn out by the playoffs. We might worry about the long layoffs between his starts, but it has the potential to help the Yankees more than it does to hurt them.
Using Sabathia in Games 4 and 7 gives the Yankees a further advantage. Cliff Lee pitches in Game 3. If he dominates as he did last night, the Yankees can respond immediately with their stopper. Then, when Lee returns for a potential Game 7, he’ll have Sabathia opposing him. The hope, of course, is that things don’t even get that far.
Using Sabathia in Game 4 presents an additional advantage, as well.
Starting Burnett in Game 5
(Michael Dwyer/AP)
No one wants to see A.J. Burnett start in the ALCS. But the way the schedule works out this year, there isn’t much of a choice. Last year the schedule worked out so that only Sabathia would have to pitch on three days’ rest. This year, without the off-day between Games 4 and 5, every starter would have to go on short rest in order to cut out A.J. He’s necessary at this point.
The Yankees, though, can make him as unnecessary as possible. By going with Sabathia in Game 4, Burnett gets pushed to an if-necessary game. No one’s going to predict an ALCS sweep, but in this case I think it’s a real possibility. We’ll get to that in more depth as we continue previewing the series. If the Yanks can pull that off, it eliminates the need to use Burnett at all.
Who in Game 2?
(Charlie Neibergall/AP)
The last rotation issue involves the Game 2 starter. The smart money is on Andy Pettitte, since he filled that role in the ALDS despite throwing with the same arm as Sabathia. If the Yanks didn’t feel the need to start Hughes on the road in that series, I’m not sure they’d change course in the ALCS.
For his part, Hughes has pitched well in Arlington. We all remember the near-no-hitter back in 2007. He returned there in 2009 and threw his best game of the year, an eight-inning, zero run performance. This year he pitched a single inning there. That makes for some entertaining noise, but it doesn’t have much substance. The sample, for both its size and remoteness, is completely unpredictive.
What we do know is that the Rangers hit righty starters a bit better than lefty starters, especially in terms of power, and that they hit far better at home than on the road. Their righty hitters have also hit righties just about as well as they have hit lefties*, which further negates the 15.1 innings Hughes threw in Texas in the last four years. Andy Pettitte
*Rangers RHB vs. RHP: .268/.330/.404. Rangers RHB vs. LHP: .272/.332/.399.
The preferred ALCS rotation
If the Yankees want to take advantage of their situation, this is how they’ll lineup the ALCS rotation. I’ll also take a stab at the Rangers’ rotation just for fun.
Game 1: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 2: Andy Pettitte vs. Colby Lewis
Game 3: Phil Hughes vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4: CC Sabathia vs. Tommy Hunter
Game 5: A.J. Burnett vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 6: Andy Pettitte vs. Colby Lewis
Game 7: CC Sabathia vs. Cliff Lee
But since the Yankees might not start Sabathia on three days’ rest, it will likely line up like this.
Game 1: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 2: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis
Game 3: Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Game 4: A.J. Burnett vs. Tommy Hunter
Game 5: CC Sabathia vs. C.J. Wilson
Game 6: Phil Hughes vs. Colby Lewis
Game 7: Andy Pettitte vs. Cliff Lee
Mailbag: Next Year’s Bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsSeems that the big question mark for next season is whether we land Cliff Lee or not. But to me, going rather unnoticed is the question mark that will be our bullpen. If Joba starts and Aceves & Marte are still injured doesn’t that leave just Robertson, Logan and Mo (assuming he returns)? That leaves 4 spots open. Of course we have internal options like Nova, Mitre, Albaladejo & Romulo Sanchez but do you see us looking elsewhere to fill out the final roster spots? There are a lot of good free agent options this winter.
Although the team hasn’t confirmed anything yet, it’s all but certain that Al Aceves (back) and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will have surgery at some point this offseason. We have no idea what that’ll do for their availability next season, but you have to assume they’ll contribute nothing and treat whatever they do give you as a bonus. Kerry Wood is as good as gone after the season, there’s no way they’ll pick up his $11M option and he’ll probably bolt for a closer’s job elsewhere. Remember, saves = money in this game, no matter how you feel about the stat. It’s also unlikely that the Yanks will offer him a multi-year deal to set up Mariano Rivera, Wood’s just too much of a health risk.
Internally, Robertson and Logan are locks behind Mo. I’m not of the belief that Joba will even be considered for a starting job next year, never mind actually get a crack at one. I’ve given up hope on that front. Let’s assume he’ll be back in the bullpen next year as well. Chad Gaudin and Dustin Moseley are goners, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sergio Mitre returns at all. He’s cheap enough ($850,000 this year) and arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason. Plus Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman seem to like him. So that’s five spots accounted for in the seven man bullpen.
Jon Albaladejo will be out of options next season (Logan too, but he’s not on the bubble), so he’ll have to either break camp with the team out of Spring Training or hit the waiver wire if they don’t trade him before then. He killed it in Triple-A this summer but the team never seemed to have interest in giving him an extended shot in the bigs, and you can’t really blame then for that. Romulo Sanchez could be another option, but his command isn’t good enough for any kind of high (or even medium) leverage work. Hector Noesi and David Phelps reached Triple-A as starters this year and could be given a shot in relief at some point. Then there’s Ivan Nova, who’s probably a lock for a long relief role if he doesn’t start the year as the fifth starter.
The free agent market is stacked with quality relievers as you said, with the most interesting (and reasonable) names beyond Wood and Rafael Soriano being Jason Frasor (Type-A), Scott Downs (A), Matt Guerrier (A), Frank Francisco (A), Grant Balfour (A), Joaquin Benoit (B), Jon Rauch (B), Chad Qualls (B), Jesse Crain (B), and Dan Wheeler (nothing). Cashman has shown little interest in signing relievers to multi-year deals since the Kyle Farnsworth and Steve Karsay debacles, and who could blame him? Bullpen guys are so volatile that you just can’t trust them to live up to the contract. Look at Marte; sure he helped them win the World Series, but aside from the playoffs last year that contract has been a disaster. There’s a big benefit to having flexibility and plenty of options in the bullpen, which is how they Yanks have done it for the last three years.
That said, there’s nothing wrong with adding relievers on cheap one year deals, similar to Chan Ho Park this season. If it works, great, if not then they cut the guy loose with no long-term obligation. I’d rule out the Type-A’s right off the bat simply because it’s not worth giving up a high draft pick for unpredictable relievers, regardless of what their track record looks like. Maybe if the Yanks go on a somewhat unexpected free agent binge and would only be giving up like, a third or fourth rounder, then maybe a Type-A becomes a more realistic option. Otherwise forget it.
Of the guys listed above, Benoit makes the most sense because he performed at an elite level in the AL East this season a year after major shoulder surgery, though I suspect the Rays will retain him on a two year deal or something to replace Soriano. Qualls was terrible in 2010 despite good peripherals, so maybe he’s an option on a late offseason CHoP-type flier. Crain and Rauch are solid options at the right price. Forget Wheeler, he’s a homerun factory before taking account Yankee Stadium.
There’s also the option of trading for a reliever(s), but I wouldn’t expect anything big. Something more along the lines of the Logan deal, a guy with good stuff and no spot in his current team’s bullpen as a throw-in to a bigger deal. As for targets … I dunno, your guess is as good as mine. Who has relievers to spare? Pretty much no one these days. If you’d have asked me this question last year, I never would have come up with Logan. That’s just the nature of the bullpen business.
So wrapping it all up, we’re looking at Mo, D-Rob, Logan, Joba and three relievers to be named later. Mitre and Nova/Albie are likely to get two of those spots, and a suspect a CHoPian free agent signing gets that last one with Romulo, Noesi, Phelps and others in Triple-A as backup plans. The important thing to remember is that the bullpen that starts the year is never the one that finishes it. They’ll start 2011 with one set of players and make changes as needed throughout the summer, like they always do.
Mailbag: Cliff Lee and Cliff Lee
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(Chris O'Meara/AP)
In celebration of Cliff Lee’s series-clinching complete game, we turn to two mailbag questions regarding the connection between him and the Yankees.
WWJMD ask: With a good post-season, can we consider Hughes the #2 starter going into 2011? If so and if Andy returns, wouldn’t it be better to go after a middle of the rotation starter instead of Lee and use the money saved towards the bench and contract extensions?
Do we really need a third veteran free agent starter signed multi-year well into their 30′s? I like Lee but at most on a Halladay-type deal and only if the yankees find a way to cut losses on Burnett (even if it means cutting him or eating his salary through trade). The team needs to start making room for young talent, hopefully by 2012 implementing hughes chamberlain and some of the “B’s” in the rotation. The opportunity cost of having a stale unflexible starting staff is high as seen through the mid-2000′s.
To the Hughes question, I’d say no. Among the current crop of Yankees pitchers there’s a good chance he’ll be second best in 2011. But, because the best pitcher in baseball hits the free agent market, there’s a better chance that he’ll be third best.
The rest of the question, and the entire second question, run counter to what we hear from the most vocal fans. Every day, but especially on days that Lee pitches, we hear clamoring for his presence in pinstripes. He is over 30 and will require a costly contract, but that’s what any team will have to pay. Why not the Yankees?
It’s true that even without Lee the Yankees should have a formidable rotation in 2011. Sabathia will return as the top man, and if Phil Hughes can build on his 2010 he could be an excellent second option. Andy Pettitte and A.J. Burnett will likely come next. That leaves one spot open for competition. We’d see guys like Ivan Nova, Joba Chamberlain, and even perhaps some of the AAA guys like David Phelps and D.J. Mitchell, get a shot at that last spot. Or, as the first reader suggests, they could sign a mid-rotation arm.
In a recent mailbag we explored alternatives to Cliff Lee and came up empty. Today I’ll throw out one alternative as a mid-rotation arm: Jorge De La Rosa. In the past few years, as he has entered his prime, he has developed as a pitcher. This year he started to throw his changeup more often, and according to pitch type values it has gotten better in each of the last three years. His fastball isn’t great, but he still throws 93, 94, which teams will always find attractive, especially from a left-handed pitcher. He also has a good slider that he breaks out as his third pitch.
Still, he’s no Cliff Lee. Slotting him in behind Sabathia gives the Yankees the kind of rotation they thought they had in 2009. It also affords them some depth, since those guys who otherwise would have competed for a rotation spot will now be stored in the bullpen or in AAA. As we saw this season, and even last, depth can become important mid-season when one guy or another goes on DL. The Yanks should have a few options to replace any injured starter in 2011.
To the point of saving money, why would the Yankees do that? Their No. 1 resource is their capital. The issue of signing bench guys isn’t necessarily money. It’s convincing a bench player to sit while Cano, Jeter, Teixeira, and A-Rod take the field almost every day. Trading for bench guys is the way to go. We’ve seen that work in the past few years. Plus, bench guys aren’t typically expensive. If they are, chances are the Yanks don’t want him on the bench.
The point in the second question about making room for young talent is something the Yankees should certainly consider, but ultimately it shouldn’t be a consideration when making Lee an offer. We’re all hyped about Banuelos, Brackman, and Betances. But we all know, whether we acknowledge it or not, that the Yanks would be extremely lucky to have even one of them work out. Prospects are a crapshoot. Some get hurt, some don’t continue to develop, some flop at the major league level. You can wish on a prospect, but you shouldn’t let one, or three, get in the way of signing baseball’s best pitcher.
Even then, I’m not sure it’s a long-term issue. There is little chance that any of the three is ready before 2012. By that point Andy Pettitte will almost certainly retire. For all we know, Sabathia could opt out and leave (even though he’s indicated that he won’t). Burnett will have just two years left on his deal. Someone could get hurt. There will be spots open in the rotation. There’s no need to pass on Lee just to create another one. If they do that, they could run into the other problem of the 00s: a complete dearth of quality pitchers.
Also, there is a maybe a 0.5 percent chance that Burnett pitches anywhere else next season. You don’t eat $52 million on a guy who can come back and help you next season.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
