Archive for November, 2010
Baseball America’s Top Ten Yankee Prospects
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The gang at Baseball America is currently in the process of posting their individual top ten prospects lists for each team, and so far they’ve covered the Orioles and Red Sox. The Yankees’ list is scheduled to go live on their website next Wednesday (it was supposed to be this Friday, but they re-arranged the schedule), but the print edition of the magazine already contains the list. I got my hands on it with some help from reader Avi, so here it is with a tiny little snippet from the scouting report…
- Jesus Montero, C: “may be the best all-around hitter in the minors, capable of hitting .300 with 30-plus homers annually … best-case scenario is that he develops into the second coming of Mike Piazza”
- Gary Sanchez, C: “has a higher ceiling than anyone in the organization, including Jesus Montero”
- Dellin Betances, RHP: “If Betances can build on the progress he made last season, he’ll be a frontline starter for New York … he still could wind up in the mix to eventually replace Mariano Rivera“
- Manny Banuelos, LHP: “has the poise to move quickly, and now he has frontline stuff”
- Andrew Brackman, RHP: “For some scouts, Brackman’s whole is less than the sum of his parts, earning comparisons to A.J. Burnett and Kyle Farnsworth”
- Austin Romine, C: “Montero has more star potential with his bat, Romine is a more well-rounded player … may become trade bait”
- Hector Noesi, RHP: “lacks the breaking ball to pitch near the front of a rotation, but his fastball command should allow him to be a No. 4 or 5 starter”
- Eduardo Nunez, SS: “Yankees see him in the Chone Figgins mold as a utility player”
- Slade Heathcott, CF: “physically resembles Brett Gardner and has some similarities to New York’s left fielder, but Heathcott should develop more power and has a stronger arm”
- Brandon Laird, 3B: “profiles as a third baseman in the Kevin Kouzmanoff mode … could become trade fodder”
Montero’s a no-brainer at the top spot, and really the next four guys are interchangeable in my eyes. You could have pulled their names out of a hat and ranked them two through four that way and I wouldn’t have made much of an argument. At that point you’re splitting hairs and going by personal preference, and I prefer the three Double-A arms to the kid that has yet to appear in a full season league. That’s just me though.
Romine’s a natural fit at six, and after that you could go in any number of directions. I prefer Heathcott in that spot because of the upside, but there’s nothing wrong with Noesi, who’s a surefire big leaguer in some capacity. You all know how I feel about Nunez, so I don’t think I need to comment on him. Laird had a huge year and made some improvements defensively, so it’s not a surprise to see him jump into the top ten.
Just think, the Yanks have three pitchers in Adam Warren (2.66 FIP), David Phelps (2.65), and Ivan Nova (3.54 in Triple-A) who had great years and are knocking on the door of the big leagues, but couldn’t even crack their top ten. Then there’s Graham Stoneburner (2.73 FIP) and J.R. Murphy (.320 wOBA in Low-A as a 19 year old). The farm system is in very good shape these days; the Yanks plenty of depth to trade from and use to plug holes at the big league level.
The Official “Don’t Even Think About It” Post
Posted by: | CommentsIt happens every offseason. Out of nothing but pure boredom and an overdose of creativity, we’ll see suggestions about oddball players the Yankees should acquire to improve their team. Last year’s the fetish was Mark DeRosa, who would have presumably played every position under the sun while giving the regulars a chance to rest and play designated hitter for a day. Nevermind the tendon sheath he tore in his wrist late in the 2009 season, he was a perfect fit as a super-sub!
Sure enough, DeRosa played just 26 games (.241 wOBA!) in 2010 before rupturing that same tendon sheath, ending his season in early-May. All for the low low price of $6M. Rich Harden as a setup guy was another popular one, and the “trade Robbie Cano and sign Orlando Hudson” scenario had a two or three year shelf life. And, of course, there’s the always popular “sign a closer and make them a setup man” routine. As much as we might want these things to happen because we believe they make the Yankees better, they never do happen for a multitude of reasons. I doubt I need to explain them all.
Consider this post a preemptive strike. I want to cut off some of the dumb ideas before they even start, using some good old logic and reason. The offseason is a cruel mistress, it makes us think crazy things that make us wonder what the hell we were thinking when we look back on them. So let’s get to the list …
Get the trainer. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Erik Bedard
There’s no denying that Bedard is a special talent. His last two seasons with the Orioles were preposterously good (3.40 FIP, 9.3 K/9, .298 wOBA against), but you know what? That was three full years ago. Bedard has dealt with a barrage of injuries since 2008, the most serious of which were a pair of shoulder surgeries: one to repair a debridement and remove a cyst, the other to repair a torn labrum.
Bedard has made just 30 starts in the last three years, including zero in 2010. The Mariners shoveled $16.25M into his pocket since acquiring him before the 2008 season, and all they’ve gotten in return is 2.9 fWAR. There’s a ton of talent here, no denying it, but it’s bottled up in a big glass container of risk. The heath of Bedard’s shoulder is a total unknown, and the chance of getting zero return is rather large. There’s no reason for him to receive any kind of guaranteed contract this offseason.
(AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Vlad Guerrero
Texas unsurprisingly declined Big Vlad’s $9M option after the World Series, during which he reached base twice (one single, one walk) in 16 trips to the plate. He got some attention after putting up a monster first half (.339/.383/.580 with 18 homers and a .405 wOBA through June 30th), but he was rather pedestrian down the stretch (.327 wOBA after June 30th) and straight up terrible in the postseason (.243 wOBA in 62 plate appearances with 16 strikeouts). Vlad’s had an awesome career, but he’s a shell of his former self and the risk of total collapse is just too great at age 35 (36 on Opening Day).
Gerald Laird
(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
The defense behind the plate was a sore sight for Yankee fans in 2010, and Brandon Laird‘s older brother is generally considered one of the best defensive backstops in the game. He threw out 34.1% of basestealers in 2010, and over the last five years that number is a whopping 37.6%, truly top-of-the-line.
But there’s a little of a catch, and that’s that Laird can’t hit. Like, at all. He put together a whopping .207/.263/.304 (.256 wOBA) batting line in 2010, and over the last three seasons he’s hit just .238/.303/.342 (.293 wOBA). If you take out the hit by pitches and intentional walks, his on-base percentage since 2008 drops to just .269. Yeah, terrible. No amount of catcher’s defense is worth that kind of offensive cipher.
Willie Bloomquist
Yep. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
When rumors circulated that the Yanks were interested in acquiring Bloomquist at the trade deadline this year, I almost quit being a fan. Okay not really, but seriously, it was bad. Bloomquist has been worth a total, a total of -0.7 fWAR over the last four seasons, during which he’s received 1,047 plate appearance. There’s a reason teams like the Mariners and Royals are bad, and that’s because they employ players like Willie Bloomquist.
Unable to hit for power, get on base at a decent clip, or play passable defense at any of the seven defensive positions he plays, Bloomquist has basically no redeeming qualities. His versatility just means he can suck at more positions. There’s nothing to like about the guy, and if the Yanks were to sign him as a free agent, his very presence on the roster would be an insult to my intelligence and fandom. Yeah, I’m not a Bloomquist fan, but it’s justified.
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The pool of free agents is something like 200 players deep this year, and that’s before non-tenders hit the market in a few weeks. These four players have very little if anything to offer the Yankees, and don’t be fooled into thinking otherwise. There’s either too much risk or too little return, and in some cases both. Finding better options at the same price won’t be difficult at all, and that’s the avenue the team needs to pursue.
Yankees talking sense, unlikely to pursue Crawford, Werth
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Crawford could round the bases plenty of times in New York, but it doesn't seem likely (Tony Gutierrez/AP)
The Yankees would be a better team with Carl Crawford. Given his pull tendencies, Carl Crawford might be a better player with the Yankees. But that doesn’t mean that the two sides will match up for a free agent contract. Crawford might have concerns other than how many home runs he hits. The Yankees have to look at the overall picture and determine what positions most need an upgrade. This week the team has met to determine a course of action, and according to a report by Mark Feinsand of the Daily News those plans will not include Crawford or the other big name outfielder on the market, Jayson Werth.
One of Feinsand’s sources nails the issue with two crisp sentences:
“We are better with Crawford, but at that price?” a Yankees source said. “I’m not sure it’s that good of an upgrade.”
The biggest difference between Crawford and Brett Gardner is power, and even then the difference might be overstated with this year’s results. Crawford produced a career high .188 ISO, while Gardner barely cracked the .100 mark. There’s a chance that Crawford, 29, could improve on that mark, especially with the move to Yankee Stadium. But considering his .148 career ISO, I’m not sure that the Yankees can bank on that. Gardner has been the better on-base guy, at least in the past two years, while Crawford again produced a career high this year, .356. Even during his first full season Gardner was at .345, and last year produced a .389 OBP.
There are other issues with Crawford, too. While he ranked just below Gardner in UZR, Gardner can take that excellent range into center field. Crawford has expressed a desire to stay in left. He also prefers not to hit leadoff, which is perhaps the best spot for him. There’s a good chance that Gardner will take over the leadoff spot at some time in the next year or two.
The biggest advantage Crawford has is his track record. Gardner fell off in the second half, which has led many to believe that he cannot handle a full-time starting gig. Whether he can or not remains to be seen, though it’s hard to argue with the numbers he has produced in the past two seasons. Crawford, on the other hand, has been in the league since 2002, at age 20, and has had only a few truly poor seasons. He’s more of a sure thing than Gardner, but he’ll also be roughly nine times more expensive.
There is also the matter of need. All three of the Yankees outfielders produced 4 or more WAR this season, the only MLB outfield unit to do so. They can, in other words, stick with the same guys and look elsewhere for ways to improve the team. Upgrading the pitching staff, in other words, will have more of a net effect on the team’s wins and losses, since there is more room for improvement on the pitching staff. Adding an outfielder would provide improvement on the margins.
Feinsand also mentions Jayson Werth, who recently retained Scott Boras to seek out the best possible deal. He’s said to be seeking a Matt Holliday type deal, but that seems out of reach for the soon-to-be 32-year-old. Werth has thrived during his time in Philadelphia both on offense and on defense, but he faces the same issues as Crawford. Adding him provides only a marginal improvement over the current outfield corps, and he will cost more than any of them — even if he settles for a Jason Bay type deal rather than a Matt Holliday one.
There are many ways the Yankees can improve this off-season, but they should be looking to improve areas where they can realize significant improvement. That falls to the pitching staff. There might be concerns about Gardner’s ability to maintain his high OBP, but those are theoretical concerns. The Yankees have actual pitching issues, and adding an arm can provide instant, tangible improvement. We pretty much knew this heading into the off-season, but it’s nice to hear the Yankees come out and say it.
Help at catcher: Miguel Olivo
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Miguel Olivo ranked second in caught stealing percentage in 2010 (Tony Dejak/AP)
Yesterday was a big day for a number of teams. Anyone who reads MLB Trade Rumors knows that a number of players hit free agency after having their options declined. There are a few interesting names among them, perhaps a few that will draw interest from the Yankees. There’s one name, though, that stands out a bit — if for no other reason than his mention in a recent post about catchers.
I’ll defer to loyal commenter Ross in Jersey, who said: “Rockies released [Miguel] Olivo, go Cash go.” They didn’t technically release him, but rather declined his $2.5 million option for 2011, opting instead to pay him $500,000 to go away. It was the second consecutive year in which a team declined Olivo’s option; after the 2009 season the Royals paid him $100,000 instead of picking up his $3.3 million option. That does sound a bit damning, but in the latest incident, at least, the Rockies might have had reasons beyond Olivo’s performance for the release.
Why would the Yankees want Olivo? Because they have a peculiar catching situation in 2011. Jorge Posada hasn’t started more than 90 games behind the plate since 2007, and might be good for only 70 or so in 2011 — he started just 78 in 2010. That leaves the bulk of the catching duties to Francisco Cervelli, which is not an ideal scenario for the Yankees. Cervelli is certainly passable in a backup role, but his defensive lapses and complete lack of power make him a poor choice to start 90 games.
There is Jesus Montero, but the Yankees can’t really count on him in 2011. He’s just 21 years old and has well-publicized defensive issues. There’s a chance he could break camp with the Yankees and start as many games behind the plate as Posada, acting as a DH otherwise, but that’s not a situation the Yankees can assume. There’s also a chance that they could deal him this off-season. Given these parameters, acquiring another catcher does make sense. But does Olivo fit the bill.
He is basically the anti-Cervelli at the plate, in that he draws basically no walks but hits for plenty of power. His career ISO is .181 and he is coming off a season that equalled that mark. For those concerned that Coors Field inflated his power numbers, he did produce a career-high .241 ISO last year while playing in Kansas City. He has also hit for power at Petco Park, though that was back in 2005. Unfortunately, his OBP leaves much to be desired. In 2010, for the first time in his career, he broke the .300 OBP barrier. But that’s less of an issue for a part-time catcher and No. 9 hitter.
On defense it appears he’s a mixed bag. He’s prone to lapses, as he’s led the league in passed balls in four of the last five years. But otherwise he seems just fine. John Dewan’s +/- rates him highly — he led the league in Defensive Runs Saved by a long shot this past season. Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Reports also rates him favorably. Olivo can certainly throw out runners as well. Last year 42 percent of base stealers headed back to the dugout, second best in the majors (again by a long shot). His career rate is 35 percent, which is 379th all-time and 12th among active players. In other words, while he does let a few too many balls get by him, he compensates in other areas.
No, Olivo is not a perfect fit should the Yankees need a catcher in 2011. Then again, there likely isn’t an available catcher who can hit, field, and accept a less than full-time role. Olivo is one of a few catchers who has enough positives going for him that the Yankees could use him to start 70, 80 games if need be. Chances are they won’t get him, though, as a number of teams need starting catchers. But should he remain on the free agent block while the Yankees take care of big business, they could certainly find use for him.
Solid day for Romine in the desert
Posted by: | CommentsJim Callis revealed a little more than we previously knew about the Scott Bittle situation in this week’s Ask BA. Apparently the Yanks had a deal in place with their 2008 second round pick, but he failed a post-draft physical not because of a specific ailment, but because of general wear-and-tear. The Yanks didn’t sign him and used the compensation pick to select J.R. Murphy in 2009. Bittle ended up with the Cardinals as their fourth rounder that year, and sure enough he missed the entire 2010 season after having shoulder surgery. Dodged a bullet there, eh?
AzFL Phoenix Desert Dogs (8-0 loss to Peoria) wow they suck, just 6-13 on the season
Jose Pirela, 2B: 0 for 5, 2 K
Brandon Laird, LF: 0 for 2, 2 BB, 1 K – threw a runner out at third
Austin Romine, C: 2 for 4, 1 K – he actually threw out an basestealer today, the only one that attempted to swipe a bag
George Kontos: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-5 GB/FB – 17 of 31 pitches were strikes (54.8%)
Clyde King, former Yankee coach and GM, passes away
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Clyde King, left, congratulates Goose Gossage on a job well done during the 1981 World Series. (AP Photo/File)
Clyde King, a long-time member of the Yankee organization who served as pitcher coach, manager and general manager during his tenure with the team, died yesterday at a hospital in North Carolina. He was 86 years old.
“Clyde was a loyal and dedicated friend and advisor to my father, our family and the Yankees organization,” Yankees Managing General Partner Hal Steinbrenner said in a statement. “Although his baseball achievements were impressive and deserving, he also lived a rich and fulfilling life away from the game. Clyde was a man of great faith who cared deeply about his friends and family, and he served as a role model to so many of us who had the great opportunity to spend time with him. We mourn Clyde’s passing with his wonderful wife, Norma, and the entire King family.”
A good friend of George Steinbrenner‘s, King joined the Yankees in 1976 and worked for the organization for 34 years. He started out in the scouting department and served as the pitching coach in 1978, from 1981-1982 and in 1988. He even managed the club over the final 62 games of the 1982 season, replacing Gene Michael over the summer. The club went 29-33 on his watch. As a GM from 1984-1986, the Yankees went 274-211 but failed to make the playoffs. He resigned in October 1986, one month before the Yanks sent Doug Drabek to the Pirates for Pat Clements, Cecilio Guante and Rick Rhoden.
Following his decision to step down as the GM, King served as a scout and baseball advisory to the Boss. He worked in that role from 1989 up through the 2010 season and was often spotted in the owner’s suite with George Steinbrenner. As a player, King pitched for the Brooklyn Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds. he went 32-25 over 200 games but walked more batters than he struck out in 496 innings.
King is survived by his wife of 64 years, Norma, their three daughters, eight grandchildren and one great-grandchild, and our thoughts go out to his family.
Open Thread: Award Dates
Posted by: | CommentsLast night we listed the important offseason dates regarding the Hot Stove League, arbitration deadlines and the like. Here’s when the individual season awards will be handed out…
- Nov. 9th: AL Gold Gloves. Robbie Cano, Mark Teixeira, and maybe even Brett Gardner have a good chance of hearing their names called. Assuming they actually call names for these things. Actually scratch Gardner, he didn’t hit enough to win a Gold Glove.
- Nov. 10th: NL Gold Gloves & Silver Sluggers. Cano should get a Silver Slugger, easily.
- Nov. 15th: Rookie of the Year, both AL and NL. Uhhh … Colin Curtis?
- Nov. 16th: NL Cy Young & Manager of the Year.
- Nov. 17th: AL Manager of the Year. Doubt Joe Girardi’s got a chance.
- Nov. 18th: AL Cy Young Award. CC Sabathia will probably finish in the top two, and he’s got a decent chance to take the award home with all those wins.
- Nov. 22nd: NL MVP.
- Nov. 23rd: AL MVP. Go Robbie.
I hate the way MLB spaces these things out, but I understand it. They want to keep casual fans interested in baseball, and it’s not a coincidence that the final award will be announced on the deadline for teams to offer their free agents arbitration. There will be a flurry of signings starting on the 24th.
* * *
Anyway, here’s your open thread for the evening. The Islanders, Devils, and Nets are all playing at various times. I forgot how much life sucks without baseball to watch. Every year this happens too, like clockwork. Sigh. Alright, you know what to do, so have at it.
The Anatomy of a Rumor or What Derek Wants
Posted by: | CommentsThe Hot Stove League can be a funny, funny thing. Signings and trades tend to happen at isolated moments around the Winter Meetings, before Christmas and in early-to-mid January, and the weeks in between are filled with rumors and whispers, speculation and distortion. While Cliff Lee remains the free agent prize this year, the Yankees and their fans will be focusing on the homegrown hero and team captain. Today, we saw how discussion and speculation about Jeter can blow up into something it is not.
What grew into a furor by the afternoon started innocently enough with a pair of radio interviews with Hal Steinbrenner. While talking first with Michael Kay and then with Mike Francesa yesterday, Hal began to talk about Derek Jeter‘s negotiations, and as he mentioned that the Yanks were a business, he also mentioned the team’s interest in signing Jeter. But, he warned, he wanted a deal that was good for both sides. “There’s always the possibility that things could get messy,” he said.
Uh, oh! Things might be messy. It’s amazing how quickly a possibility of things getting messy turns into “Yanks warn of messy talks with Jeter,” as the headline on The Post said. ESPN had a similar take.
Today, the Internet exploded all over again when Jon Heyman, the King of Speculation, let loose what can only be termed his opinion as couched in an anonymous source. A few hours ago, he tweeted that “industry sources suggest” that Jeter could ask for six years (and be signed through age 42 as A-Rod is). The Yanks want him for fewer years. He elaborated in a season preview column:
There are early indications the talks with Jeter may take awhile. Some industry sources still say they wouldn’t be surprised if he initially sought to obtain a six-year deal to match the expiration age of Alex Rodriguez‘s contract, which would put Jeter at 42. The Yankees haven’t opened talks yet with his agent, Casey Close, and while it’s unconfirmed, there are a few early hints that the team may be thinking about a deal of about half that length, perhaps three guaranteed years.
So now we have “some industry sources” who “wouldn’t be surprised” if Jeter “initially sought” a six-year deal. It’s also “unconfirmed” but there are “a few early hints” that the Yankees would counter with a three-year deal. It’s somewhat shocking this paragraph made it past a Sports Illustrated editor considering the 2000 pounds of salt with which we must take it.
Right now, we don’t know what Jeter wants, what the Yanks are willing to pay or how long it’s going to take. But if this is the best rumor we’ve got, it isn’t worth listening to Heyman when he says, “Jeter could take awhile [sic],” and the only thing getting messy so far are the journalistic standards in place for reporting unfounded rumors.
Past Trade Review: Paul O’Neill
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(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
It might be hard for the younger generation of fans to believe, but two decades ago the Yankees were a non-factor in the AL East, finishing no better than fourth in the then-seven team division from 1987 through 1992. They hadn’t been to the playoffs since 1981. Don Mattingly was a bonafide homegrown superstar, but Dave Righetti’s talent was being wasted in the bullpen, Ron Guidry was fading, and a numerous free agent signings and trades just didn’t work out. For every Dave Winfield there was an Andy Hawkins, for every Rickey Henderson a Tim Leary.
George Steinbrenner, who always dipped his toe deep into the baseball operations pool, was banned from day-to-day management of the team in late-July 1990 after paying Howie Spira $40,000 to dig up dirt on Winfield. Gene Michael took over as general manager the very next month, and he and his front office staff went to work rebuilding the Yankees without The Boss interfering. They were patient with prospects, valued high-end pitching, and above all wanted batters that worked the count and wore pitchers down.
One of the team’s few established above-average players was centerfielder Roberto Kelly, who broke in during the 1987 season but didn’t grab hold of an every day job until two years later. He hit .284/.339/.426 from 1989 through 1991, increasing his homer output from nine to 15 to 20 during that time. Kelly rode a hot start (topped out at .361/.396/.514 in late-May) in 1992 to his first appearance in the All Star Game, though ironically enough that ended up being the worst full season of his career (98 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR) up to that point.
The then-28 year old Kelly was obviously a solid contributor for the Yanks, but his on-base percentage (just .325 from 1990-1992) wasn’t good enough for a guy that spent the majority of his time hitting in one of the top three spots of the batting order. Eighteen years ago today, Stick dealt Kelly to the Reds for a fellow 1992 All Star outfielder named Paul O’Neill and Single-A first base prospect Joe Deberry.
(AP Photo/Ron Frehm)
O’Neill was more than a year older than Kelly and relegated to an outfielder corner defensively, but it didn’t matter. He fit the grind-it-out philosophy, not only getting on base 34.4% of the time from 1989-1992, but he was also trending upwards. His IsoD (isolated discipline, or OBP-AVG, which measures a batter’s ability to get on base by a means other than a hit) went from .069 in 1990 to .090 in 1991 to .100 in 1992. O’Neill also brought World Series experience, though he wasn’t without his warts. The lefty swinger had plenty of trouble against southpaws, hitting .225/.279/.295 off them in 1992, and just .227/.278/.332 over the last three seasons.
O’Neill’s first season in New York was the best of his career up to that point, a .311/.367/.504 effort, career highs across the board. He was still hopeless against lefties though, hitting just .230/.279/.319 off them that year. The Yankees improved by a dozen wins from the previous season and finished second to the Blue Jays in the division. O’Neill managed to top his strong debut season with a career year in 1994, winning the batting title and hitting .359/.460/.603 with more walks (72) than strikeouts (56) for the first time in his career. As if someone flipped a switch, he hit .305/.439/.571 off lefties and went to his second All Star Game, finishing fifth in the MVP voting. The Yanks were robbed of their first playoff berth in more than a decade because of the strike though; at 70-43, they had the best record in the AL.
As the Yankees incorporated more and more young players onto their roster, O’Neill remained one of manager Buck Showalter’s stalwarts. His newfound level of production proved to be his true talent level, as O’Neill hit a whopping .317/.397/.517 during his first six years in pinstripes. He was the three-hole hitter the majority of the time during the team’s titles runs in 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2000, usually protected by cleanup hitter Bernie Williams, the guy that replaced Kelly in centerfield after the trade.
All told, O’Neill hit .303/.377/.492 with 185 homers in his nine years with the Yanks, going to four All Star Games and finishing in the top 15 of the MVP voting four times as well. Steinbrenner, reinstated by the commissioner two years after being banned, dubbed him The Warrior, and fans fell head over heels in love with him for his style of play. O’Neill was famously hard on himself, throwing helmets and smashing water coolers whenever something went wrong, and if you took a gander at him in the outfielder between pitches or at-bats, you’d often catch him practicing his stance and swing with an invisible bat.
(AP Photo/ Pat Sullivan)
O’Neill’s Yankee career is full of far more memorable moments than I care to count, but two stick out to me. The first is pretty obvious, the “Paul O-Nei-ll clap clap clapclapclap” chant in the ninth inning of Game Five of the 2001 World Series, a grand send-off in his final game at Yankee Stadium. The second came back in 1996 (left), when he ran down a Luis Polonia line drive to record the final out of Game Five of that World Series, saving an extra-base hit in a game that ended 1-0. I’ll also never forget yelling at him through the TV to catch the final out of David Wells’ perfect game with two damn hands. Sheesh.
As for Kelly, he went on to be very productive for Cincinnati, hitting .313/.353/.447 for them before being traded to Atlanta for Deion Sanders during the 1994 season. He bounced around a bit the rest of his career, making stops with the Expos, Dodgers, Twins, Mariners, and Rangers before rejoining the Yankees in 2000, a 27 plate appearance finale to his career. He was certainly a quality player, just not at the same level of O’Neill. Deberry never played in the big leagues, topping out at Triple-A. He was out of baseball by 1998.
O’Neill’s 24.8 bWAR with New York is more than Kelly’s entire career (16.9, just 5.0 post-Yanks), but we don’t need any kind of advance stats or detailed analysis to call this trade a clear win for the Yankees. It’s arguably one the ten best trades in franchise history, maybe even top five. The Warrior is still a fan favorite and a semi-regular at Yankee Stadium to this day, showing up to Old Timer’s Day and calling games for the YES Network whenever he feels like getting out of Ohio.
Happy Paul O’Neill Trade Anniversary Day, I’m not sure any of us knew how important and beloved he’d become.
The Arbitration Question: To Offer Or Not?
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The free agent signing period officially starts this Sunday, but free agency won’t begin in earnest until later this month when we know which players will force teams to give up a draft pick to sign them. Some are obvious; the Cliff Lees, the Carl Crawfords, the Jayson Werths, those are the ones we don’t have to think about. They’re going to cost you. But with players like Paul Konerko, Carl Pavano, and Frank Francisco, it’s not so obvious. That’s why we have to take the wait and see approach.
Quick primer on the rules: If a team offers one of their free agents arbitration and he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive two draft picks if he’s a Type-A (the signing team’s top pick and a sandwich rounder pulled out of the air) or just one if he’s a Type-B (the sandwich rounder). Of course the player has to decline that arbitration offer for the team to be entitled to that compensation, which is no longer a given these days. Salaries are coming back down to Earth and teams are shying away from older players, so the chances of these guys accepting arbitration has gone up considerably in recent years. But you knew that already.
The Yankees haven’t offered arbitration to any of their free agents in the last two offseasons, and there’s really no reason to expect them to alter that practice now. The last compensation pick they received for losing a free agent came way back in 2008, when they gained a supplemental first round pick for losing Luis Vizcaino (they used the pick on Jeremy Bleich). Yeah, it’s been a while.
Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and Andy Pettitte all qualified as Type-A free agents, and we know that it’s pretty much Yankees or bust for those three. Since the chances of them signing with another club are tiny, I don’t see the point in offering them arbitration. There’s nothing to be gained by it, and an offer would put all of the risk on the Yankees. There are worse things in the world than having those three on well, well above-market rate one-year deals, but I don’t think that’s enough of a reason to assume the risk given the tiny chances of the reward. Perhaps you feel differently.
Javy Vazquez is a no-brainer. He’s a Type-B who made $11.5M in 2010, and of course he was awful (-0.2 fWAR) due to stuff that deteriorated as the season progressed. The best course of action is to simply cut ties and walk away. I know the Yanks considered two draft picks to be part of the deal (he was a Type-A once upon a time), but things didn’t work out. No sense in trying to force the issue, let Javy walk with no stings attached. That leaves two more decisions to be made…
Lance Berkman
When the Yanks acquired Berkman at the trade deadline, he waved his no-trade clause under the condition that they would not pick up his $15M option for 2011. Usually it’s the other way around, the player wants the option picked up in exchange for agreeing to the deal. I guess that means Puma really doesn’t want to stick around and plans on exploring the open market this winter.
(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)
Under normal circumstances, there’s no way you’d offer Berkman arbitration given his bloated salary and declining production (yes, I know he was pretty good with the Yanks, but his .345 season wOBA was the worse of his career), but this isn’t a normal situation. Berkman’s demonstrated a desire to get out of town by demanding that they decline his rather lucrative option, and unless he’s had a change of heart over the last few months, I think they should offer Fat Elvis arbitration and hope he declines.
Yeah, it’s very risky given his salary and the team’s not infinite payroll, but I think there’s enough writing on the wall to risk it. Granted, it’s not my money, so what do I know. If Berkman was a Type-A instead of a Type-B, I definitely wouldn’t offer because a team is unlikely to give up a high pick to sign him. But since that’s not the case, I say go for it. Be bold.
Kerry Wood
Wood earned $10.5M this year, which is a boat load for a reliever, even a closer (which he was at the start of the year). In fact, he was the seventh highest paid relief pitcher in baseball this season, just ahead of B.J. Ryan. Yeah, the Blue Jays are still paying that guy.
Anyway, Wood (a Type-B like Berkman) will probably be able to find a job closing games somewhere, but he’s not going to sniff that kind of annual salary again. Remember, he was on the disabled list twice before the trade, and his 26 innings with the Yankees were unfathomable lucky (6.23 BB/9, .235 BABIP, 98.1% strand rate). Considering those three things (improbability of finding that much money on the market, his health track record, and unsustainably good performance), I’d wish Kerry good luck and decline to offer him arbitration. If he accepts and you’re stuck with a $11-12M setup man … yikes. The Yanks have money, but that doesn’t mean they should spend it stupidly. Sorry Kerry.
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So assuming the Yanks offer arbitration to Berkman and Berkman only, they’ll receive one extra draft pick next year if/when he declines. Not much, but it’s better than nothing in a stacked draft class, especially when the Yanks are expected to forfeit their first round pick to sign a Type-A free agent of some kind. The deadline to offer arbitration is Nov. 23rd and players then have seven days to accept or decline, so this is going to sneak up before we know it.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
