Dec
18

Food For Thought: Curtis Granderson

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Two very different players with very similar on-the-field value at that point in their respective careers. Damon’s career path was pretty linear, hopefully Granderson can maintain a similar level of consistency going forward.

(related graphs)

Categories : Players
  • matt :: Sec105

    How did Damon’s career WAR start above 0?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      1.3 WAR as a 21 year old. He played enough to make a meaningful contribution. Grandy got nothing more than a callup at age 23.

  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

    Huh, that’s really interesting. I think of Damon and Granderson as pretty different players but maybe not as much as I would expect.

    • whozat

      I think the shape of their contributions differs significantly. Granderson has always been more about power, while Johnny had better plate discipline.

      • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        Yeah… Doesn’t really say anything about the “type” of player they are.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        I enjoy actually seeing the learning curve (so to speak) in the graph. Took each guy until age 26 before they contributed with consistency.

  • Andrew S.

    I miss Johnny Damon.

    <3 the two-base steal.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      As much as I don’t particularly want him back I miss him and his goofiness too. I’m glad he went out on a good note.

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    I like Curtis Granderson as a player and a person. He has shown signs with the help of K. Long with the quiet hands improving his hitting skills. Some of those HRs. in the second half were pretty.

    Hopefully, he’ll start out in April as he finished.

    Yes, I miss JD but it was time. And he misses NY, too.

  • brian g

    why’s everyone hating on jeter….blah, blah, blah, blah…….hahahahah!

    just kidding.

    can’t wait to see what granderson is gonna be doing on the field next year!

  • pat

    Hopefully Granderson can stay healthy and avoid the injury problems that moved JD from cf.

  • DareBear

    Johnny Damon > Curtis Granderson. Period.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Well, I’m convinced.

      • DareBear

        Do we realize that our 2009 CF (Melky freaking Cabrera) had a higher BA and OBP than our 2010 one?

        • pete

          Our 2010 CF was a superb defender who belted 24 home runs despite a crazy slow start AND missing a month.

          • DareBear

            Defense? Melky has a CANNON.

            • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

              Which he needs to throw in all the fly balls he doesn’t catch.

              • Stacoe44702

                If this is a ‘dig’ directed at C. Granderson, it’s sorelty misplaced. While he might have a “cannon’(al la, Melky), his accuracy is very good and doesn’t lack for power!

            • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

              Vlad has a CANNON too. Would you want him out there?

              • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

                We’ll get to see him throw it 350 feet, after the ball bounces through his legs.

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                The funniest part about that one game where Vlad played the OF in the WS was when he fumbled around all hopelessly with the ball, and then threw it in toward the infield with his ridiculous cannon arm. Hilarious.

            • pat

              Range >>>>>>>>>> Arm strength.

              Your trolling leaves much to be desired

            • It’sATrap
              • pat

                Lol @ the announcer. “If you’ve ever tried to throw a wet bar of soap in the shower that’s what happens, right there”

            • pete

              And yet, despite less brute arm strength, Granderson’s arm consistently rates as least as well as, if not better than Cabrera’s, based on actual runs saved.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          I like how you ignore the power. The difference in SLG is greater than the difference in AVG + OBP by quite a bit. Granderson hit more homers in half of August and Sept. than Melky did during all of 2009.

          • Dave

            Lol. I agree w/you but what does “half of August & September” mean? Is that August? Or Augtember?

    • pete

      lolwut

    • Teh Comp Pick

      Not saying I disagree, well sort of at least, but from ages 26 to 29 Granderson was more valuable 3 out of the 4 seasons. Grandy is likely to only become more powerful into his 30′s.

    • LarryM.,Fl.

      Wait for the full body of work.

  • Teh Comp Pick

    Wow Grandy’s ’07 campaign was beast.

    Don’t think it’s fair to expect that again, but he is a helluva player, definitely wouldn’t want to sell low on him.

  • wally

    Food for thought: Rafael Soriano

    I realize that RAB has argued repeatedly and extensively against paying up for relievers. And it’s certainly true that many are inconsistent. But Soriano is a guy who has had six straight outstanding years. Last year his ERA was under 2, his WHIP something like 0.86. The truth is his resume is beginning to look a bit like.. well I suppose I shouldn’t compare him to Mo just yet.

    But getting Soriano would do more than just shore up the 8th inning— a potential trouble spot next year IMO. I simply don’t believe Joba or D-Rob has proven to have the requisite consistency.

    But if we sign Soriano, we could trade Joba. And I believe he would have considerable value on the trade market. Indeed, I can see a package centered around Joba and perhaps Brackman (with others but not including Jesus, Manny or Betances) landing a good starter.

    As to the lost first rounder, it’s too bad. But it’s not a tragedy. I would like to see how many #30 picks become even decent major leaguers– and how long it takes. My guess would be 30% or less– and at least three or four years.

    It’s been a bad off-season. Siginging Soriano, I believe, could still save the day.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      He’s also been on the 60-day disabled list in three of the last six years.

      • wally

        That will only lower his price. And by the way, the price to the Yankees — with such a low pick — is less than it is for anyone else. So this should serve to deflatre competitive offers.

        • JMK

          Look at the marketplace for relievers and the season he’s coming off.

          You’re not going to sign him to a favorable deal; his injuries are certainly concerning and although the pick is relatively low, it’s not license to burn a valuable pick for a signing with a high probability of failing.

    • pete

      Signing a reliever will never, ever save the day.

      • wally

        Yeah, too bad we ever landed Mo.

        • whozat

          The point is that you have to BE the greatest of all time to justify a multi-year, big money deal for a reliever. So, yeah…signing pretty much any other reliever will absolutely not save the day.

          • wally

            Wel,, I’d say one of te best will do fine. I like my chances of return on 3 years 27 mill for SOriano a lot better than $150 mill for Cliff Lee.

            • The Real JobaWockeeZ

              I’m sure you’d feel the same say about Joe Nathan in 2009.

              But he got injured the subsequent year because relief pitching is a bitch. Only Mo and like Hoffmann are worth long contracts.

            • whozat

              The problem is that you’re wrong. It’s exceedingly difficult for a reliever to contribute a lot of wins, because they just don’t play enough and the games aren’t as in doubt as you feel they are when they’re on the field.

              His injury history might lower his salary…because the odds of him taking the field are lower. Making offering a three year deal even LESS of a good idea.

              • JMK

                The problem is that you’re wrong.

                I have nothing to add, but I’m going to say it louder:

                THE PROBLEM IS THAT YOU’RE WRONG.

                Sorry for that brief interruption. Carry on.

        • pete

          He was on the Yankees in 2008.

          In fact, he has been on far, far more non-WS-winning teams than WS winning teams in his career. Also, he blew the save in game 7 of the 2001 WS. And in games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS. And he’s the greatest postseason reliever of all time, in most people’s eyes, mine included.

          The point is not that Rivera isn’t good. It’s not that relievers outside of him can’t be good. It’s not even that they can’t be consistent. The point is that no matter how good a reliever is, he’ll be, at best, the 15th most significant player on the team, behind the 9 everyday players and the 5 starting pitchers.

          This doesn’t mean that a reliever can only ever be the 15th most valuable player – they are often more valuable than position players and starters; what it means is that in an ideal world, the team’s best reliever should be it’s 15th most valuable player. Relievers should never be a top priority for a team unless it has no concerns about its position players or starters.

          This doesn’t mean that teams can’t pursue and sign relievers whether or not the rotation and lineup are set, because pursuing relievers does not preclude them from pursuing starters and position players. What it means is that they shouldn’t pay starter or position player money for a reliever, because that space in the budget does preclude, to some degree, spending on more significant players.

          It all comes down to the bang you get for your buck. Even an elite set-up guy throwing close to a hundred innings would have a hard time touching 4 WAR (Rivera 4.4 fWAR in ’96, throwing 107.2 utterly dominant innings, and has since then crossed the 3 fWAR barrier just twice). It’s never wise to spend big-time dollars on players whose value is essentially capped on the (super) high end at the equivalent of Curtis Granderson’s 2010.

    • Teh Comp Pick

      Give up the team’s only first rounder in teh superdraft???????? No thanks.

    • king of fruitless hypotheticals

      oh hey…i think you accidentally posted that on the granderson-damon thread instead of the soriano thread. maybe if you ask they can ‘magic edit’ it over there for you…

    • Mike R

      I’d rather give everyone in the pen a chance and if you need someone for the 8th inning you make a trade for a guy like Kerry Wood at the allstar break just like we did this year.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      I laughed at ‘six straight outstanding years’ – 2 of those years he pitched under 15 innings.

    • Dave

      Guy has had too many injuries in the past to pay his asking price. Seeing as Benoit was his set-up man, he’s not going to even listen to offers that aren’t at least 33% higher than what the Tigers gave him (and again, that would be a starting point).

      As far as any trade “centered” around Joba, what exactly do you think you’re getting for him? His trade value right now is garbage. The Yanks are going to wait at least until July and hope he has a great first half so as to get something of value back.

      Maybe you meant to “center” a trade around Brackman, but anything “centere” around Joba would net a pile of chum.

  • Mike R

    Johnny Damon aka the lost puppy.. I’ll always remember that double steal and him cheering on Melky when he robbed that homerun from the Red Sox.. I believe it was Mannys almost Homerun.. However, I’ll also remember all the horrific routes he took to fly balls as well as how many runners tagged on him. I love Johnny Damon but the dude threw a baseball like it was a wiffle ball, no arm whatsoever.

  • wally

    Lots of folks here obviously drink the RAB water. But I would like to know exactly which recent Yankee team managed to win it all without outstanding 8th inning relief. The 76 dynasty began with Gossage and Lyle. The 96 to 2000 run was built around Mo, Nelson and Stanton. In 2009, we had Hughes. And even last year we needed Wood to get as far as we did. And I don’t think D-Rob-Joba is the answer (though I do cherish the hope Joba will be better next year).

    • whozat

      The point is not that an effective bullpen isn’t important. The point is that spending 3/27 and a draft pick in an attempt to acquire an effective relief option is misguided, because relievers are volatile in both performance and health.

    • FIPster Doofus

      Hughes was anything but outstanding in the 2009 playoffs.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Joba can’t handle the 8th, but then he has considerable value on the trade market?

    • JMK

      Are your base are belong to the RAB water?

      You’re conflating an idea that 150 innings by a good bullpen are a greater contribution than the hundreds of innings and at-bats of non-bullpen players just because they stick out in your mind.

      The 96 to 2000 run was not at all built around a bullpen.

      That simply isn’t true.

      • http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

        In 98 the Yankees could have won with Kyle Farnsworth.

        • JMK

          Cervelli probably could have closed on that team… while in 7th grade somewhere in Venezuela.

          • pete

            nah. probably not.

    • http://danielslifka.wordpress.com Jerome S.

      Soriano =/= answer either. There could be like a 35% chance we don’t get more than a month out of him is he signs. And that’s a kind estimate.
      Joba D-Rob is the answer. Robertson was great and Joba’s peripherals were great, too. I would like Soriano too, but only if I
      - don’t have to pay him ~10 mil a year
      - I get to keep the draft pick OR
      - I get everything back if he gets injured.

    • http://www.twitter.com/deanezag Zack

      Nelson pitched 16IP over 5 different WS. Stanton pitched 23IP over 6 WS.

      They didn’t build a team around 3 and 4 IP per series- the team was built around Jeter, Williams, Tino, O’Neil, Posada, and Pettitte.

      • JMK

        Wrong. It was Luis Sojo. And only Luis Sojo.

        • whozat

          COUNT TEH RINGZZZZ!

    • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      Lots of folks here obviously drink the RAB water.

      Despite what people like Poopy Pants may tell you, some people actually go here because they….like the content? Weird, I know.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      Wally: Can you please keep comments on topic? This is not at all an appropriate comment for a thread about Curtis Granderson. There’s a perennial open topic thread and an open thread at 7 p.m. on the main page. Thanks.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

      In 2009, we had Hughes.

      Hughes sucked in the 2009 playoffs

      • JMK

        But we bombed the Germans after Pearl Harbor…

    • pete

      The 96 to 2000 run was built around Mo, Nelson and Stanton.

      For god’s sake can this ridiculous theory be put to rest? Those teams were built around Jeter, Posada, Williams, Martinez, O’Neil, Pettitte, Cone, Wells, Clemens, et. al. They had great bullpens, but they weren’t great because of those bullpens. They were already great.

  • Plank

    I bet there are a bunch of players with similar career progressions through age 29. The thing Damon did which most players don’t is sustain that production into their late 30s.

    Johnny Damon’s career is pretty uncommon in that players who start like that (really good, not league leaders) tend to peak around the normal time then fall back to earth in their 30s. Expecting Granderson to be able to sustain the rates he’s established into his late 30s seems unrealistic. It would be awesome if he could though.

    • Plank

      Myabe I was wrong on that. I seems like a lot of tweener OFs who started off with a career like that tended to be decent in their 30s. Damon, Gant, Reggie Sanders, Andy Van Slyke, Mike Cameron, Kirk Gibson, and Ray Lankford all had similar career progressions.

      (I know they’re not all similar players)

      Hopefully the rest of Granderson’s career is more like Jim Edmonds than Shannon Stewart. I’m sure he’d be happy with a Damon career though.

      http://www.fangraphs.com/graph.....erid5=1322