Archive for December, 2010
Thoughts on the Cliff Lee non-signing
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See you in October, Cliff. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
When the news of Cliff Lee agreeing to a contract with the Phillies broke late last night, I was preoccupied by trying to get the site back online after yet another issue with our host. I was frustrated all night and didn’t know if it was because of the technical issues, Lee, or both. After a night of sleep, it’s easy to say it was both. But I digress.
There’s a lot running through my head right now about what losing out on Lee means for the Yankees going forward, so I’m just going to bullet point it because that seems easiest…
- It’s obvious that the Yankees have long coveted Lee, even before the non-trade in July. They made him an extremely competitive offer to join a perennial contender, and Lee simply said no. There’s nothing more Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office could have done, he just said no. There’s no one to blame.
- Part of me thinks that if the trade had gone through in July and Lee spent the second half of 2010 in New York that the odds of him signing long-term with the Yankees would have gone up astronomically, but we just don’t know if that’s true. He could have left for the Phillies anyway, in which case the Yanks would be out Jesus Montero (but potentially up on World Championship).
- I said it yesterday and I believe it even more today: the Yankees absolutely can not run out and make a knee-jerk reaction trade for a pitcher just because they lost out on Lee. That’s only going to make matters worse. Prices are through the roof at the moment.
- Please, let’s just give up on Joba Chamberlain the starter already. Yes, this is a perfect opportunity for them to move him back into the rotation, but they’ve been very clear about their intentions to keep him in the bullpen. It’s extremely likely that they just don’t think he can hold up under the starter’s workload.
- Let’s cut the “we’re DOOMED!” crap. The roster as it is is probably a 90 win team, more if Pettitte returns. We all know that the team they have right now is not the team they’ll go into the 2011 postseason with. Just get in, anything can happen in a short series.
- Joe will have more on the payroll a little later today, but the Yankees have something like $25-30MM burning a hole in their pocket right now, and that’s going to be spent somewhere. About half will go to Pettitte if he returns, and some of the remainder will probably go to Russell Martin and soon. I bet he’s signed within 48 hours, but then again I was optimistic about signing Lee at this time yesterday.
- How about all that garbage about how Texas had an advantage because of their proximity to Lee’s home in Arkansas and the lack of income tax? The Rangers reportedly made the best (largest) offer, and he still said no. As usual, the impact of that stuff was over-reported and over-stated.
- On the bright side, the Yankees will in all likelihood keep their first round pick (none of the four remaining Type-A’s fit), which means two top 50 picks and three top 80 picks in a stacked draft class. Silver lining.
So that’s it, there’s nothing you or I or the Yankees can do now. Lee is headed to Philadelphia, and the Yanks have to move on with their offseason. We should start to hear some rumors about potential pick-ups very soon, which should make for some good copy.
December bombshell: Lee signs with the Phillies
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Right mound. Wrong team. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
After days of hand-wringing by fans of the Yankees and the Rangers, the Cliff Lee saga came to a stunning conclusion when the Philadelphia Phillies landed their once and future lefthander. According to reports, Lee will sign a five-year deal worth approximately $120 million guaranteed with a vesting option for a sixth year. The Yankees, for the first time since Greg Maddux signed with the Braves nearly 20 years ago, are left empty-handed as the Number One item on their Hot Stove wishlist slipped away to a mystery team.
For the Yankees, this shocking turn of events caps off a week and a half of rumors galore. The baseball world had held its breath over the weekend as Lee debated whether or not to take an offer to remain in Texas or join the Yanks. Still, rumblings of a mystery team would not die, and according to numerous reports, the Phillies leaped into the fray this weekend when Lee made it be known that he was itching to return to Philadelphia.
After all of the hours of silence and the countless cries of “what does it mean,” the Yankees are once again left Lee-less. Perhaps they dodged a bullet when the Mariners backed out of a trade that would have sent Jesus Montero to Seattle in exchange for Lee. Perhaps the Yanks would have gotten just four months of Lee and six years of pining for Montero. We’ll never know, and we’ll leave that hand-writing to the Rangers who got their first World Series appearance but gave up Justin Smoak in the process. They’re arguably worse off than the Yankees today.
For the Bombers, the only question that remains — and I say only heavily — is about the future. What comes next? Were the season to start tomorrow — and it does not — the rotation would feature CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova (if the club, as rumor has it, is intent on keeping Joba in the pen). Come Opening Day, that won’t be the rotation. The Yanks will court Andy Pettitte and hope that he has enough faith in his aging body to take the ball for another year.
But beyond Pettitte, what’s out there in the great unknown of the trade market? We saw the Blue Jays surrender Shawn Marcum for Brett Lawrie. So we know that trades can be made and pitchers acquired. We hear that the White Sox will shop Mark Buehrle, that the Cardinals may make some arms available, that Zack Greinke, despite the Yanks’ concerns about his mental make-up, can be had. We think the Marlins might part with Ricky Nolasco, and we don’t know about countless other pitchers. We know injuries guys like Brandon Webb remain available. We know that the Yanks have money and prospects. They can make a deal.
So we’ll lick our wounds and perhaps rock ourselves to sleep tonight. The Yanks and their millions rarely lose out. They offered Lee $148 million — six years at $22 million with a seventh year player option for $16 million — and club officials now believe Lee never wanted to come to New York. That’s the way the cookie crumbles. What happens next will be a test of GM Brian Cashman, and the 95-win Yanks who missed the World Series by two wins this year will be just fine by the time pitchers and catchers report. Lee will always be the one who got away.
Phillies making late push for Lee
Posted by: | CommentsAs the mystery over the mystery team involved in the mysterious Cliff Lee sweepstakes boiled all day, we heard low-level rumors that the Phillies might be involved in the negotiations. This evening, Ken Rosenthal’s sources confirm that the Phillies are indeed involved in the bidding for Lee. Rosenthal’s source did say it would take “nothing short of a miracle” for the team to fit Lee into their budget, but the club is “not out” of it yet.
It’s tough to say what’s going on here. The Phillies could be showing legitimate interest as they have contracts coming off the books, but the club isn’t going to match the seven years the Yankees have reportedly put on the table. This might be a move by Lee’s agent Darek Braunecker to push up the Yanks’ offer by $5-$10 million or it could be the Phillies’ salivating over a rotation of Halladay-Lee-Hamels-Oswalt in 2011. Either way, it appears as though this saga will last at least another night.
Update (9:26 p.m.): Jerry Crasnick has more on the Phillies, who, he says, jumped into the hunt “with fervor” after the Winter Meetings. The ESPN scribe’s sources say that Lee is close to a decision. It will all be over soon.
Update (9:51 p.m.): The YES Network’s own Jack Curry has jumped into the fray. He tweets that “there is a belief” that Lee will wind up with the Phillies. But here’s the rub: Lee will have to accept far fewer dollars and perhaps a shorter contract to sign with the Phillies. It’s all happening now.
Open Thread: Charlie Hayes
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
I dunno why, but I’ve been on a bit of a retro kick of lately, hence the recent Mike Mussina, Jimmy Key, and Darryl Strawberry posts. Anyway, everyone remembers Charlie Hayes for that moment right there, the final out of the 1996 World Series, and I suspect he’s perfectly fine with that. It’s easy to forget that Hayes was a fine player for a lot of years though. He put up 2.6 fWAR for the Yanks as their regular third baseman in 1992, and almost a third of career 14.0 fWAR came in pinstripes. Hayes’ big year came with the Rockies in 1993 (after they grabbed him in the expansion draft), when Coors Field helped him hit .305/.355/.552 with 4.1 fWAR. It’s all about that catch though, when you hear the name Charlie Hayes, you can’t help but put a smile on your face because of that weak little foul pop-up.
Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, here’s your open thread for the evening. We’ve got not one but two football games tonight. The regular MNF game has the Ravens at the Texas, but the Giants are also playing the Vikings in Detroit because the Metrodome roof collapsed yesterday. That game will air on FOX in the Tri-State area. The Isles are also in action. Go ahead and talk about whatever you want, just be cool.
Food For Thought: Darryl Strawberry
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What coulda been, eh?
Straw is still my all-time favorite player. I grew up one of two Yankee fans (along with my grandfather) in a family full of Mets fans, and I couldn’t not love Strawberry when he was in his heyday in the 80′s. When he caught on with the Yanks in the ’90′s, I couldn’t have been more excited. I was so young and I didn’t fully understand the power of addiction, and I remember always wondering why he didn’t just stop doing drugs and play baseball all time. It’s too bad things ended up the way they did, he could have been an all-time great.
The RAB Radio Show: December 13, 2010
Posted by: | CommentsHey, it’s the day Cliff Lee might or might not choose his team. Let’s hope that it’s not Groundhog Day tomorrow. But don’t blame Lee for taking his time. It’s not as though he’s going on a league-wide tour and announcing his decision on ESPN. He’s just a guy who’s taking his time with a major life decision. Well, that, and he’s trying to extract every last dollar out of the deal. Can you really blame him?
One thing this isn’t doing is holding up the Yanks’ winter. I don’t think any of the Lee backup plans are time sensitive, and truth told there might not be that heavy a backup plan. And so we wait.
But could they at least throw us a bone with a Russell Martin signing? Is that too much to ask?
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Did Mo really contact the Red Sox?
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(Kathy Willens/AP)
While the re-signing of Mariano Rivera was relatively uneventful, there was an interesting twist. When news of the signing broke we learned that Rivera had other offers, and we later learned that one came from the Red Sox. The idea of a three-year, $51 million offer was shot down, but later word was that the Red Sox had offered two years and $30 million. Futhermore, ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes reported that the Red Sox were prepared to non-tender Jonathan Papelbon in the event that they landed Rivera. That left the Sox a little mess to clean.
A recent report from WEEI’s Rob Bradford attempts to walk back most of the story. It starts with the revelation that Mariano’s agent, Fernando Cuza, initiated contact with the Red Sox. When we first learned of the Red Sox offer it was assumed that they were the ones who contacted Rivera. Bradford’s scenario does make a bit of sense, though. What better way to attract the Yankees’ interest than by contacting the Red Sox?
The report also attempts to walk back the other part of the situation, i.e. Papelbon’s imminent non-tender. Bradford cites “separate sources,” and goes on to list the reasons why the Red Sox would never let Papelbon walk for nothing. If they offer him arbitration after the 2011 season, when he becomes a free agent, they can collect two compensatory draft picks if he signs elsewhere. Of course, that overlooks the possibility that Papelbon really is declining and that not only will he not be worth his salary in 2011, but that he won’t be worth the risk of an arbitration offer, thereby netting the Sox nothing if he leaves.
Still, it would represent a poor distribution of resources for the Red Sox to carry both Rivera at $15 million and Papelbon at $12 million. That’s more than the Rays will pay their entire pitching staff in 2011. The Red Sox can afford it, I suppose, but I doubt they’d do it. Plus, since the market for closers isn’t very strong, they’d have a hard time finding a taker for Papelbon at that salary. In the unthinkable event that Mo signed with Boston, I have to think that Boston would have cut ties with Papelbon. They can say, then, that they never intended to non-tender Papelbon, because they never really stood a chance to sign Mo.
There figured to be little drama in the Mariano negotiations, and as it concerned the Yankees there was not. Wanting to minimize risk, they wanted to sign him for only one year. He, wanting another two years before retirement, sought two years. His being Mariano Rivera, I’m sure the Yankees were prepared to go two years all along. It just took the Red Sox offer to prod them along. Might Rivera have contacted the Red Sox to get the process moving? Sure. Might the Red Sox have been willing to carry both Papelbon and Rivera? Maybe. But neither seems all that realistic. After the mess that Edes’s report created, I’m not surprised to see a contradictory one a few weeks later.
What happens if the Yanks miss out on Lee?
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AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
Most of what I’ve seen written in the last week or so claims that the Yankees are doomed if they don’t sign free agent lefty Cliff Lee, double doomed if Andy Pettitte retires. They certainly will be worse off going into the 2011 season, no doubt about that, but they still have a team capable of making the postseason. Hell, they won the division from 2004 through 2007 with far worse rotations than one anchored by CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes.
We’ve explored a number of potential Plan B options should the Yankees fail to sign Lee, including guys like Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, Tom Gorzelanny, Carl Pavano, Ricky Nolasco, Chris Carpenter, and Zack Greinke. Countless other names have been mentioned by the masses, most of them unattainable (i.e. Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson). Here’s the thing though: if they do lose out on Lee for whatever reason, every other team in baseball will know that the Yankees are desperate for pitching, and the prices are going to sky rocket. It’s simply supply and demand.
Because of this, I would not at all be surprised if the real Plan B is to do nothing to help the pitching staff for the rest of the offseason and instead wait to see how the first few months of the 2011 season play out. Well, “do nothing” is a relative term, “do little” would be more appropriate. Brian Cashman would still have to add someone to the starting staff just to increase organizational depth, but it won’t be any kind of long-term solution. Perhaps he gambles on the health of Brad Penny or Justin Duchscherer or even Brandon Webb for a few months, or goes with the surefire mediocrity that is Kevin Millwood. A small move just to lighten the load on Ivan Nova and whoever else (Sergio Mitre?) is at the back of the rotation for the time being.
Cashman’s mantra has been patience since the day he took over full control of the baseball operations, and I don’t see why this would be any different. Waiting out the offseason and seeing what happens in April and May gives the front office more information to use when making a decision, which is always a good thing. Maybe Burnett rebounds to his 2009 self, maybe Hughes takes another step forward, maybe Nova pulls off a mean Chien-Ming Wang impression, or maybe they all suck and the rotation is Sabathia and four question marks. In that case, they’re screwed anyway, with or without Lee. Patience will allow the trade market to develop, to see if the Cardinals fall out of it and Carpenter does become available, or if the Dodgers flop and put Hiroki Kuroda on the market, or if Lance Pendleton and Aneury Rodriguez and Ryan Rowland-Smith work out for the Astros, making Wandy Rodriguez expendable. The possibilities are seemingly endless.
There’s no more Cliff Lee’s out there, which is why the Yankees want the real Lee so badly. He only costs money (and a draft pick), their greatest asset, and it’ll be a few years before a pitcher of this caliber is on the open market. The answer to losing him isn’t to run out in desperation and trade for a pitcher you may not want just for the sake of adding a pitcher. We’ve seen what knee-jerk, reactionary moves like that can do, and the result is never good. Remember, the Yankees don’t need to be the best team in baseball from April through July, they just need to be the best team at the end of the season and in a position to do some damage in a short playoff series (ideally three). We’ve seen major bullpen makeovers over the last three seasons, and if they fail to sign Lee, they might just have to bank on a mid-season rotation makeover.
Fan Confidence Poll: December 13th, 2010
Posted by: | CommentsSeason Record: 95-67 (859 RS, 693 RA, 98-64 Pythag. record), finished one game back in AL East, won Wild Card, lost in ALCS
Top stories from last week:
- The winter meetings brought plenty of news and rumors, but Cliff Lee was predictably the central figure of the week. The Yankees were ready to get serious after a slow moving negotiation, and they made the lefty a six-year offer. They eventually offered a seven-year contract that was one of several proposals. We’re still waiting to hear on his decision.
- Brian Cashman confirmed that Andy Pettitte is leaning towards retirement, but we still don’t know anything definitive.
- The Yankees are aggressively pursuing free agent catcher Russell Martin, making him a one year offer after reviewing his medicals. They’re not the only team that wants him, though.
- Cashman went to dinner with Carl Crawford, but it was just a bluff to drive up the price for whoever signed him. As it turned out, he ended up in Boston.
- Among the other players New York showing interest in this week: Francisco Liriano, Pedro Feliciano, Matt Diaz (he ended up with the Pirates), Mark Prior, Rich Harden, and old buddy Kerry Wood. The Yanks also want bring Al Aceves back on a minor league deal.
- The Yanks took two players in Rule 5 Draft, lefty Robert Fish and righty Daniel Turpen.
- A few former Yankees made news as well. Melky Cabrera signed with the Royals, Dustin Moseley with the Padres, Wilkin De La Rosa with the Dodgers, and Dave Eiland with the Rays in a front office capacity.
- CC Sabathia reiterated that he will not opt out of his contract, and Cashman reiterated that Jorge Posada is the team’s designated hitter.
- George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin were not elected to the Hall of Fame by the Expansion Era Committee.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Mailbag: Mark Buehrle
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(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Any chance the Yankees show an interest in Mark Buehrle? He’s owed $14 million in the last year of his contract and it sounds like the Sox will listen to offers. What do you think it would take to get him? Given his contract situation, he might be cheaper than some of the other fallback plans.
The ChiSox are willing to listen to offers for their nominal ace according to Nick Cafardo, and they’re sure to get a ton of bites. Buehlre’s reputation as a top flight pitcher is prevalent throughout the game even though his performance doesn’t exactly back it up, but that’s not to say he’s a bad pitcher. He’s obviously quite good. I guess a perfect game, a no hitter, and a World Series championship can cloud people’s perception. Crazy, I know.
Buehrle’s value lies primarily in his supreme durability. He’s made no fewer than 30 starts or thrown fewer than 201 innings in each of the last ten seasons, averaging 33 and 222 during that time, respectively. Simply put, this is a guy a team can count on to take the ball deep into the game every fifth day, and there’s a ton of value in that (no fewer than 3.4 fWAR in nine of the last ten years).
Now, the underlying performance is a bit of an issue. Buehrle doesn’t strike anyone out, which is always a concern. His strikeout rate dipped to just 4.24 batters per nine innings in 2010, down from 4.43 in 2009, 5.76 in 2008, and just north of 6.00 at his peak. Unsurprisingly, his swing-and-miss rate has been dangerously low at 6.7% over the last five years, well below the ~8.6% league average. For comparison’s sake, Sergio Mitre posted an identical 6.7% whiff rate in 2010. Buehrle makes up for the lack of strikeouts by getting a good amount of ground balls but certainly not a ton; his 46.8% grounder rate over the last three seasons is identical to CC Sabathia‘s and the 24th best in baseball.
If you’re not going to strike anyone out or get an excessive amount of ground balls, you can’t walk yourself into trouble, and Buehrle excels at avoiding free passes. He’s unintentionally walked just 1.9 batters per nine innings pitched in his career, a rate that held true last year, the last three years, and the last five years. Consistency, they name is Buehrle. Concerned about all those miles on his arm catching up to him a la Javy Vazquez? Don’t be, Buehrle’s sat at 86.4 mph with his fastball over the last four seasons. Yeah, the velocity was never there in the first place. He succeeds by throwing three different fastballs (two-seamer, four-seamer, cutter) and a changeup with great regularity (no fewer than 15.4% of the time each last season).
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
With the lack a knock-out breaking ball and the inability to get strike three, it’s inevitable that any pitcher will get hit around a bit, and Buehrle is no exception. His 708 hits allowed over the last three seasons (.304 BABIP) are the most in baseball, and the 66 homers are the 22nd most during the same time frame. Left-handers have gotten him for a .345 wOBA and righties a .325 wOBA since 2008, both worse than league average. His 4.10 FIP since ’08 is just a touch better than Ted Lilly’s and A.J. Burnett‘s, though his 4.38 xFIP lags a bit behind those two. Buehrle is what he is, a true innings eater that is good for solid but unspectacular performances. His reputation as an ace is a bit puzzling, but he’s certainly a fine pitcher.
Should the Yankees be interested if they fail to sign Cliff Lee? Sure, they absolutely need two starters this offseason and a pitcher of Buehrle’s caliber is a big upgrade over the Ivan Novas of the world. He’ll pull down a cool $14M in 2011 before hitting the free agent market, so a trade would have to be viewed as a rental. The Yanks gave up a fringe big leaguer, a top pitching prospect, and a decent relief prospect for Vazquez last year, who was cheaper and coming off a better season than Buehrle is this winter. I don’t see why they should give up any more this time around.
We do run into a similar problem with Buehrle as we did with Gavin Floyd, in that it doesn’t appear the two teams line up well for a trade. Chicago’s in the hunt for a third baseman and relief help, and the Yanks can’t really spare either. Brandon Laird and Joba Chamberlain shouldn’t be enough for Buehrle, nor would I want the Yanks to surrender Joba for a one year rental. Whether or not a trade can be worked out is not my responsibility, but if the price is right, it certainly makes sense for the Yankees to go after the lefty if they can’t land Lee. Hell, even if Lee does sign with the Yanks, Buehrle would be a fine replacement for Andy Pettitte should he call it a career.
Update: Turns out that Buehrle’s contract has some trade-related perks. If traded, his 2011 salary is increased to $15M, and what amounts to a $15M option for 2012 automatically vests. That’s a problem because Buehrle isn’t young and doesn’t have much margin for error to begin with, so it really hurts his value and stock as a trade target.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
