Jan
25

Open Thread: “It was there, and it was gone”

By

Zack Greinke is down with F-I-P. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan profiled Voros McCracken today, the godfather of DIPS theory (defense independent pitching stats, like FIP). McCracken is quite literally a genius, scoring 155 on a second grade IQ test that sent him directly to fourth grade and soon enough gifted classes, but these days he’s a bit of a tortured soul. He has little to show for his million dollar DIPS idea beyond a wristwatch, and he’s battled both depression and bipolar disorder. It’s a fantastic read and well worth your time, so give it a click.

Once you’ve done that, use this as your open thread for the night. The only local sports action tonight is the Rangers and Islanders, who are running out the clock before the All Star break.

Categories : Open Thread
  • John

    Obama’s State of the Union or MLB’s Top 50 Prospects?

    • CAYANKSFAN

      BOTTOM PROSPECTS WOULD BE FINE!

    • squishy jello person

      What time is that starting? The 50 prospects thing?

  • http://twitter.com/TylerWilkinson T-Dubs

    Shameless self promotion: Check out my new graphic. It was intended to go on T-Shirts but in light of the recent news, it was decided to scrap the idea. Hope you like!

    http://goo.gl/kSKBy

    And for, perhaps, the last time: Free Joba.

    • SodaPopinski

      excellent

  • http://twitter.com/bryanl26 Bryan L

    Who’s gonna be watching the All Star fantasy draft?

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      Hockey?

      Team Staal, yo!

    • http://www.superkyle.tk Engelbert

      This seems like a wicked way to pick teams, way more exciting and team-stacking is always exciting.

  • Granderslam

    So how about the Wandy extension? Do you think it makes it more likely or less likely he gets traded?

    • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

      Less likely, wtf Astros?!?!?

  • Total Dominication

    So, Napoli to Texas.

    • http://www.superkyle.tk Engelbert

      Toronto is going to FSU soon, and its about time.

    • Greg

      As I have said, the Angels have been toyed around this offseason.

      Our offseason would be the worst if it weren’t for the Angels

    • Accent Shallow

      I’m surprised by that — I thought the Jays would have gotten a much better return. Frank Francisco? Really?

      • Chops

        I assume he’s stockpiling relievers either for A) selling some at the deadline for prospects or B) waiting till the end of the season and hope they get compensation picks for them.

        AA is a draft guy, so I can’t say I’m surprised. Francisco instantly becomes their closer.

        • Chops

          or option C) He is going to deal Jason Frasor before the offseason is over.

  • Sheepmeister

    Over the past two seasons, with all of the young pitching that is getting locked up into team friendly contracts making it more and more rare for top flight pitching to hit the open market in their prime, I am starting to get worried about the yankees situation. I understand there are the killer B’s and some mid to back end of the rotation starters, but those are all just lottery tickets and there are 5 spots in the rotation. I just hope that the yankees dump more money into scouting/development/coaching at the minor league level so they can keep the influx of young talent coming (esp with the possibility of a worldwide draft with hard slotting coming along in the next CBA).

    • Total Dominication

      The Killer B’s are a little more than lottery tickets. It seems likely that 1 of them will work out. I mean, what do you want the Yankees todo. They have one of the best pitching farms in baseball.

      • Sheepmeister

        It has more to do after the next CBA if there is a worldwide draft AND hard slotting. Most of the talent is reclamation projects, players drafted b/c they slipped due to contract demands, and international players. That advantage disappears if those things are implemented.

        • Accent Shallow

          if there is a worldwide draft

          This would be an absolute disaster for MLB, unless Selig would take some of the money from the central fund to set up academies in the DR, Venezuela, etc. Sheesh, someone should do that in Puerto Rico.

  • bonestock94

    If you think Voros has it rough, you should talk to his brother Phil.

  • theyankeewarrior

    Fuckin Wandy extension… awesome. Cross him off the list. This off-season is so annoying. Idk how it keeps getting worse.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      Before you know it, the Yankees will be moved to Anaheim and renamed the “Angels”

      • theyankeewarrior

        Yeah I guess it could be worse. Which scares me.

  • http://www.twitter.com/ngoral Jake LaMotta’s Left Hook

    So the Red Sox wanted Bautista, huh? Would have been cool to see AA fleece Epstein and Bautista start to suck again.

  • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

    Duchscherer (or whatever) wants to start and will only sign a deal with a team that will let him start.

    The Yankees have 947128947 awesome pitchers in their bullpen and two awesome pitchers in their rotation.

    It’s… a match made in Heaven the Bronx.

    • http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

      Agree. It’s a great fit. He’s likely to get hurt anyway, but it at least pushes everyone else back in the meantime while pitching better than Mitre.

      • mbonzo

        Like you said, he’s likely to get hurt. But I really think he’s less likely to get hurt than anyone else left. He was never a high velocity pitcher, so his motion shouldn’t be too harsh on hips. Of all the injury prone guys left, he’s the least likely to rip his own arm off.

    • http://twitter.com/AndrewLeighNYC Andrew

      I am dying for him to sign with NYY at this point. Wouldn’t have to expect 200 innings but if he can stay healthy for 25 starts it makes things a whole lot rosier regardless of what Pettitte does. Then if you have he AND Pettitte next year, that’s quality depth at SP right there.

  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

    According to Joel Sherman, Coney’s gonna be back doing 25 games or so on YES. :D The offseason just got at least 45 times better!

    • squishy jello person

      Yes. Yes it did.

    • Accent Shallow

      I don’t follow your math, but this is good news.

    • Xstar7

      +1

    • mike hc

      When cashman said we were one pitcher away, I don’t think he meant david cone.

      Just messing around. This is great news. Thanks for the update here.

  • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

    So on the radio today, I heard the Red Sox’s rotation is “much more dominant” than the Yankees’ rotation. How? Maybe I’m being biased here, but what makes Boston’s starters so much better?

    Sabathia and Lester? Whatever, they’re a wash. They’re the two best lefty pitchers in the AL. After that, BOS/NYY have almost the exact same rotation components: Young guys looking to repeat their first bout of extended success in a ML starting rotation (Hughes and Buchholz)and big name/big money guys looking to bounce back from bad years (Burnett/Beckett+Dice-K+Lackey). The Yankees last two spots of (currently) Nova and Mitre may not be great and, gun to my head, I probably take Dice-BB and Lackey over them, but how is the Boston rotation much more dominant? Am I being too biased here?

    • Accent Shallow

      Well, Buchholz did just have a much better season than Hughes (as to its repeatability, talk to me in August), and Beckett/Lackey both have the “ace” reputation (deserved or not). Boston’s rotation is probably stronger, but it’s significantly stronger in terms of names.

    • mike c

      you’re undervaluing lackey

      • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

        Fair enough.

      • http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

        Lackey was a league average pitcher last year, and he’s 32 years old, so it’s not like he’s improving. If he can put up another 200 innings he provides a lot of value, but isn’t a great pitcher by any means, and last year wasn’t even good.

        • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

          To be fair, he was a 4.0 fWAR pitcher last year.

          • http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

            And 1.9 bWAR. But a lot of his value came from his ability to log innings. He doesn’t miss many bats and isn’t likely to improve going forward. He’s a very solid pitcher, but is he someone you don’t want to see on the mound? Not really.

            • mike c

              I don’t consider him a “good” pitcher but he’s good enough to win a bunch of games with that boston lineup behind him. they might be ugly wins, but that’s fitting for lackey

              • http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

                Yeah, I think he’s a very valuable regular season pitcher that will give you 6 or 7 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs, giving you a chance to win most nights. In the postseason though, he’s not someone you concern yourself with.

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                  but teh game 7 in 2002!!!

    • Stryker

      probably. i think the “dominance factor” comes from dice-k/beckett/lackey being names who have histories of success in the american league. nova and mitre – both can’t pitch past the 4th inning and mr. inconsistency himself…not so sexy.

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Eh, I wouldn’t say they’re “much more dominant,” but they definitely have a better rotation than we do. If Pettitte comes back, it’s a wash, IMO, and if/when the Yankees pick up a starter this year, they could definitely have a better rotation.

      They both have a lot of ?s in the middle or the rotation (Burnett, Beckett, Lackey, plus the young guys).

  • Teh Comp Pick

    First heard about Voros in Moneyball, awesome book. New post on MLBTR about Duchsherer, I really want him in pinstripes.

  • Stryker

    i don’t know how many blueshirts fans we’ve got here, but i’m REALLY loving the wolski/stepan/zuccarello line. what a trade for the rangers.

  • Stryker

    really? eminger and mcdonagh injured now? who do they have left?!?!

  • It’sATarp

    If angels flame out which they most likely will…Dan Haren anyone?

    • mike c

      I don’t know about the angels this year… they have a shot in the west now that they’ve added haren, wells (I know, the money), and kendry back to the lineup. I’m crossing my fingers that this is felix’s last season with the M’s before they have to pay him that $60MM they owe him for ’12-14. but until then, I’m all about the killer B’s

      • Total Dominication

        No way the Angles are within 5 games of Texas.

    • http://twitter.com/AndrewLeighNYC Andrew

      I would be up for Haren, Weaver or Pineiro on the Yanks, so yeah. Who knows who else might be out there in July though. If the Dodgers tank they have a surplus of starters, as well. So I guess LA teams, you are going to suck, give us your starters.

      • mike c

        send romine & joba for lilly & mattingly

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Eh, I don’t think the Angels will ever consider themselves out of it. They were pretty much out of it last year when they traded for Haren.

  • mike c

    My sleeper team is Toronto, maybe not this year but they will be good soon

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Agreed. The AL East is going to be insane in 2012.

      • mbonzo

        The Yankees will also be seeing a lot of that top 6 farm system reach the majors in 2012, so its gonna be one of the best seasons ever to enjoy.

    • Chops

      They certainly have been the “trendy” dark horse pick.

      I can’t say they don’t deserve it though, AA has been one of the best GMs in baseball since he got the job.

  • mbonzo

    Manny Banuelos #35 on the MLB top 50 prospects.

    • mbonzo

      Gary Sanchez #32.

      • rbizzler

        Ha. Seems a little bullish, no?

        • mbonzo

          BA ranked him #2 in the Yankees system. I agree with you though. I’d rather take someone hitting a bit less in AAA.

          • rbizzler

            Are BA’s rankings out yet?

            • mbonzo

              Only post-season for individual teams.
              http://www.baseballamerica.com.....10907.html

              • rbizzler

                Much obliged. I believe I remember seeing this now. Looking forward to the updated list and all of the top 100’s (not to mention Mike’s top 30).

      • mbonzo

        Montero #9 O_o

    • rbizzler

      Huh. Seems a little bearish, no?

      • mbonzo

        When you consider that there are 30 teams, and he’s only just entered AA I think its a decent placement. I agree he should be a bit higher but its about right.
        BTW
        Casey Kelly #22. I feel like he would be ranked higher if he were still in Boston.

        • rbizzler

          Maybe, but Banuelos seems to have closed the prospect gap a bit with his performance last year combined with the uptick in velocity.

          Kelly remains the darling of the prospect world.

          • mbonzo

            They mentioned that he missed about half the season this year, so that probably played into his rank. He only started 15 games this year.

  • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

    Eduardo Nunez is listed as the #9 2B prospect:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl.....8;c_id=mlb

    He’s played all of 19 games there in the minors and 1 game there in the majors. Um…

    • mbonzo

      David Adams >>>>>>>>> Eduardo Nunez

    • Chops

      I think people are just generally assuming that if you can play SS you can play 2B.

  • Matt

    #9 Jesus Montero

    • mbonzo

      Bad ranking imo. Bryce Harper will probably get #1 and he hasn’t even really played.

      • Matt

        would be a crap ranking if he is ranked already without playing a full minor league season.

        • mbonzo

          All he’s really played professionally was in the AZL and instructional.

    • http://theyankeeu.com Matt Imbrogno

      That’s too low. He’s top 5 for sure.

      • rbizzler

        Agreed. I am curious to find out who they ranked ahead of teh Jesus.

        • mbonzo

          So far I disagree with everyone in front of him except for Brown.

          • rbizzler

            Yeah, well I believe Jesus didn’t get much love from MLBN last years as well. It looks like it is going to be Trout and Harper 1/2 for the OFers.

      • Xstar7

        He didn’t rank higher because he’s in the Yankees farm system and that automatically makes him overrated. At least that’s what goes through the minds of MLBN’s staff.

        • http://twitter.com/Paddock9652 Stratman9652

          Didn’t even get a mention after they said he was number 9. Rediculous.

      • http://twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H

        I agree, but I don’t care.

  • Kelmanoj

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....emore.html

    What do you think about the Yankees getting involved in this?

    • Matt

      Carmona in a yankee uniform would make this offseason go from dull to great.

      • Kelmanoj

        I’d be more excited for Sizemore…he’s one of my favorite players.

    • mbonzo

      I think the Yankees could get Carmona and Sizemore without dealing Montero. If they could, they should.

    • Kevin G.

      For some reason when I hear Carmona, I think Carmona Anthony. Ugh, those Nets-Melo rumors drove me insane, didn’t they?

  • mbonzo

    #10: Julio Teheran
    #9: Jesus Montero
    #8: Eric Hosmer
    #7: Mike Moustakas
    #6: Arolids Chapman
    #5: Dustin Ackley
    #4: Domonic Brown
    #3: Bryce Harper
    #2: Jeremy Hellickson
    #1: Mike Trout

    • mbonzo

      Jesus Montero should be #5 on this list at least. Bryce Harper shouldn’t really be on it because he’s barely played anything professionally. I would have gone.

      1. Trout
      2. Brown
      3. Hellickson
      4. Montero

      • joe

        Can someone explain to me mike trout and why he is #1 i really dont know much about the kid except that he played in A-ball and was 19yrs old and was a 5 tool OF.Does that really make him #1?

        • mbonzo

          He’s an incredible hitter at a very young age (.344/.426/.489) with a lot of speed and a great fielder. He does everything well at 19 years old.

          • joe

            Well enough to be the #1 prospect ?

            • mbonzo

              Again he’s hit .344/.426/.489 in the minors. Thats amazing. Yes he’s a number one prospect.

        • Xstar7

          He plays the outfield. Hits for average and can steal a lot of bases. He doesn’t have too much power though. But he’s only 19 and in the single A level so he still has a while to go.

          • mbonzo

            Slugging .490 when you’re 18 is a lot.

            Montero slugged .491 when he was 18.

            • Xstar7

              Both Montero and Trout hit for high average but Montero has more power and produces more runs. On the other hand Trout is a better baserunner and defender. Overall Trout seems to be a better prospect.

              • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

                Montero also is in AAA, I don’t know enough about Trout, but if they’re about even otherwise, I would think Montero should get the edge.

                None of this will matter though when Jesus comes up in July and mashes.

                • Xstar7

                  Trout is in the Angels system. He’s done very well so far but #1? It’s a bit questionable. Montero just seems like more of a sure thing right now because he’s more developed and is major-league ready.

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

                  Trout’s supposed to be a pretty good defensive OF and Montero might have to DH. But like you said, none of it matters. Montero’s not gonna collapse because he’s only #9 on the MLB.com rankings, which are meh.

                  • Xstar7

                    Mike Piazza was a bad defender and look how that turned out. Just let Jesus play catcher. He’ll be fine as long as he makes up for his mediocre defense with spectacular offense. You know, kind of like Jorge Posada.

      • Matt

        Hellickson should be 1 imo

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      If Chapman is really going to remain a reliever, no way should he be number 6. But I’m not surprised.

      Agreed that Jesus should be 5.

    • Reggie C.

      Trout’s so hyped at this point the kid is getting set up for an underwhelming 2011. I’ve heard rumors that Trout might start the year in AA. HOLY SHIT that’s fast-track.

      Too fast imo. The top 10 should look like this:
      10. Matt Moore
      9. Teheran
      8. Chapman
      7. Trout
      6. Ackley
      5. HARPER (hasn’t done anything yet but i recognize the singular talent at this spot)
      4. Moustakas
      3. Montero
      2. Hellickson
      1. Brown

  • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

    Yankees have 3 of the top 10 catching prospects. Ballin’.

    • Xstar7

      Yes but only one can remain in the end. As for the others? Trade bait.

      • Shaun

        I think two can remain, one will be a different position, one will be the catcher and one will be trade bait

        (I think Romine becomes the trade bait)

      • Rob NY

        There can only be one Highlander!

        • Xstar7

          Jesus Montero=Connor MacLeod

  • S

    Why does it seem that everyone is on the Kelly Bandwagon? He doesn’t seem that good,outside of his work in that half season he hasn’t done anything to prove he deserves to be highly touted.

    • Total Dominication

      Before they put him at too high a level last year he had really great #’s.

      • S

        He was there all year…I feel he should have adjusted to the competition at some point but he never did and continued getting whipped in the AFL. Yet the younger Banuelos gets knocked for being short despite pitching better and Matt Moore; who is the same age has done just as well.