Jan
03
Open Thread: A.J. turns his number
By
(AP Photo/Rob Carr)
A happy birthday goes out to A.J. Burnett today, the right-hander turns 34. There’s no beating around the bush here, the Yankees need Burnett to be better than he was last year, and that would be true even if the team managed to sign Cliff Lee. Hopefully a new pitching coach and an offseason of rest (both physical and mental) does the trick. Know who else celebrates a birthday today? The best bad utility infielder infielder ever, Luis Sojo. He turns 45. Happy B-day to both.
Anyway, here is tonight’s open thread. The Islanders are the only local team in action, which kinda sucks. Baseball can’t come back soon enough. You know what to do, so have at it.
119 Comments»
RAB Info
The Founders
Mike Axisa, Ben Kabak, Joe Pawlikowski
Editor-In-Chief
Mike Axisa Archives | Email
Managing Editors
Ben Kabak Archives | E-mail
Joe Pawlikowski Archives | E-mail
Contributing Editors
Larry Koestler (Archives)
Moshe Mandel (Archives)
Eric Schultz (Archives)
Weekend Writers
Hannah Ehrlich (Archives)
Matthew Warden (Archives)
Special Contributor
J.R. O'Grady (Archives)
Technical Consultant
Jay Gordon
Subscribe to RAB by RSS
Follow @RiverAveBlues
Search RAB
Loading
Yankees News from YESNetwork.com
- Brian Cashman: Mark Teixeira could begin a rehab assignment as soon as Tuesday
- Brian Cashman speaks to media about injured Yankees pitchers
- Alberto Gonzalez clears waivers, will report to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
- Seattle Mariners option Jesus Montero to Triple-A
- Thriving with the Yankees, Vernon Wells fulfilling his father's dream
- Kuroda leaves early as Orioles win rubber game
- New York City Football Club names Claudio Reyna Director of Football
- Yankees, Manchester City to own NYC MLS team
- Yankees, Manchester City announce NYC MLS team
- New York Yankees fall to Baltimore Orioles on Nate McLouth's homer in the 10th
Banner Design By
The Tyler Austin Watch
Self-promotion time. Taking on that “2011 Red Sox = 1927 Yankees” article.
I should add:
- JGS wrote that article with me
- Happy b-day AJ, please be better next year
- Heyman’s an asshat.
Assuming Crawford and Agon repeat their numbers from 2010, they will add a total of 1 WAR to the team’s lineup! This assumes that Youk’s defense can replicate Beltre’s (HAHAHAHA) and Crawford can maintain his defensive value in Fenway (HAHAHAHA). But seriously, the Red Sox will be good if they stay healthy, but everyone’s forgetting they’re losing their best players from 2010, Martinez and Beltre.
What was the WAR for the 1927 Yankees?
+64.9.
The 1998 Yankees were +63.8. The 2009 Yankees were +48.7.
1939 Yankees were +70.1
That would be a great idea for a post. According to baseball Reference their Batting WAR was 46.6 and Pitching was 18.3. I’m not sure if that’s total WAR, but it comes to 64.3.
In comparison, the 2009 Yankees had 37.9 Batting WAR and 10.8 pitching, which totals to 48.7.
I’ll try to find what the Red Sox project to have in 2011.
1927 Yankees total war is 64.9, addition fail.
How many WAR does Youkilis, Pedroia and Elsbury add by playing all season compared to the crappy players that subbed for them?
Important part of the equation no?
Like I said, an extra half-season of Pedroia and Youk (being generous), plus Ellsbury, plus Crawford, plus Gonzalez, minus 2010 Beltre and 2010 Martinez, is an improvement.
It’s just not a THIRTY WIN improvement.
This was the most intelligent article I’ve ever read about the Red Sox. And there haven’t been many lately.
How many wins would a team full of 0 WAR, replacement level players project to have?
About 40. So the 1998 Yankees were +63.8 as a group, meaning they would have been expected to win 104 games that year (40+63.8, rounding off).
Thanks.
FWIW.
http://www.baseball-reference......hives/8225
The 2010 Pirates were +1.7 WAR and they went 57-105 (thanks JGS).
So the Pirates actually performed better as a team than their individual parts? Is that sad or encouraging?
It is also the birthday of J.R.R. Tolkien.
Mitch Williams just said signing Vlad is more important for the Rangers than signing Beltre.
MLB Network used to have watchable analysis too. Wish they’d get some more unbiased reporters like Peter Gammons.
It’s not a bias; it’s just bad analysis. I really thought MLBN was going to be a good alternative to ESPN/BBTN, but it’s not much different at all.
This. MLBN used to have okay analysis, but it got really bad and it’s getting worse.
When the MLB network first started I thought the analysis was way better than ESPN, now its about the same. It might just be that they’ve run out of things to say during the offseason, but analysis has been getting worse.
Oh and I was being sarcastic with Pete Gammons btw. If I had a nickel for everytime he’s predicted the Red Sox to win the division I could sign Crawford for my softball league.
I know you were being sarcastic, that’s why I made the comment. I don’t think the analysis on MLBN shows major biases, but rather it’s just incredibly shallow.
it’s just incredibly shallow.
And pedantic. You forgot pedantic.
+1
http://shallowpedantic.ytmnd.com/
Oh and Mlbn is mediocre.
I think some guys have major biases, generally made pretty obvious by what teams they played for (Williams is a Phillies homer, Leiter’s a Yankee/Mets homer, Sean Casey’s a Reds/Tigers/Red Sox homer, Millar’s a Red Sox homer), but it’s just a big mess overall.
Phillies are the team to beat, all day, everyday….even in 1995!
Mitch Williams’d
really? we’re surprised a crack analyst yeam that includes such baseball intellects as Sean Casey and Kevin Millahhhhhhh would not be all that good?
It’s tough to be objective and/or critical when you’re a network created by the very product it is tasked with covering. In other words, it’s a propaganda machine.
Good analysis =
Youth + intelligence + never been involved with MLB
Bonus: Good hair.
As to needing to be “better” than last year, i think Burnett could pitch from 2nd base this year and be “better” than he was last year. They need him to pitch to his contract, stay uninjured (a miracle in and of itself that he’s been healthy for 2 years) and find one consistent arm slot.
Ironically, I have a feeling that he’s gonna pitch great in April and then come up with a season-ending injury in May. He’s just never been this healthy for this long in his career.
This thread seems like a good place for the “I Believe in AJ” graphic:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/4.....265079510/
i’m on the bangwagon.
Attn Bex:
This requires more than 140 characters. I don’t think the Mets are so bad that they’ll finish fifth. Their pitching may be for shit, and Washington’s may be decent, but the Nats lost Dunn and Willingham on offense. The Mets’ lineup may not look great, but I’d expect improvement from Reyes and Wright, as well as a healthy year from Beltran. Maybe the pitching ends up about the same, but the Mets will more than likely out hit the Nationals.
I always forget Washington lost Willingham in addition to Dunn, so yeah, you are probably right. Also, I can’t imagine Jason Bay will stay as bad as he was last year, pre-concussion.
Don’t be an idiot, Matt. The Nats signed Jayson Werth. No one will ever beat them at hitting.
How the hell is Penn beating Kentucky?
Does anyone else think the Rangers on the verge of signing Adrian Beltre to a 6 YEAR CONTRACT is a bad idea? I don’t think he’ll put up numbers like last year again after being mediocre every year before then since 2004. Hardly a good replacement for Vlad. And they already have a good third basemen. They’ll be wasting Beltre’s defensive talent.
Michael Young is terrible at 3B.
that, although 6 years still seems steep
Offensively though he’s hit .300 with 158 home runs in his ten years for Texas. He’s a quality player.
I meant defensive wise.
Michael Young won the gold glove for AL 3B in 2008. But winning the gold glove doesn’t really mean anything anymore.
Wasn’t he a SS that year? I remember hearing the MSM being flabbergasted by the team asking the GG SS to move off the position.
Whoops you’re right.
When Derek Jeter is winning Gold Gloves then yeah the award is a joke. Well except for 09.
He’s a quality hitter, not a quality fielder. Beltre is both a decent hitter as well as an elite defender. He’ll be the 3B if they’re both on the team.
It’s also worth noting that his hitting quality has been inconsistent.
You mean Beltre is inconsistent right?Young was a very consistent hitter up until about the last two years. And he’s still been more consistent than Beltre.
Ehh Young is consistently good in their bandbox but not so much anywhere else.
.322/.372/.487 career home
.279/.322/.411 career away
The difference is that Beltre can make up for it with defense, Young can’t.
I guess the Rangers do need defense more than offense right now but I’m still not liking this deal.
No it’s not a good deal but nothing in this offseason indicates that a team will get a good deal.
Nats killed it for everyone.
Fucking Nationals. I liked the Expos much better.
No its quite consistent, when he needs a job he actually tries and hits well. Sign him long term…well let’s say he won’t win employee of the month.
What about 2009? Didn’t he need a job then?
I think it’s not a great idea for them… but Michael Young is a HORRENDOUS defensive third baseman. If the team signs Beltre, MY should DH.
If he’s still around, I’d imagine Michael Young will be relegated to DH.
Giving Beltre a 6 year contract definitely seems like an awful idea. The guy’s been an adequate-ish hitter, with a few (massive) exceptions.
Michael Young apparently is not interested in moving off 3B even though he’s terrible at it. It’ll be interesting to see how things turn out.
well, look at the bright side. he will only be shitty for 5 of those years…. 2017 will be a contract year…. so there’s that
He’s the projected lineup and WAR for the 2011 Red Sox.
1) Jacoby Ellsbury (CF) 4.2
2) Dustin Pedroia (2B) 6.3
3) Carl Crawford (LF) 6.2
4) Adrian Gonzalez (1B) 5.9
5) Kevin Youkilis (3B) 6.7
6) David Ortiz (DH) 2.6
7) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C ) 2.6
8) JD Drew (RF) 3.5
9) Marco Scutaro (SS) 2.0
10) Mike Cameron (OF) 2.0
11) Darnell McDonald (OF) 0.8 (2010)
12) Jed Lowrie (INF) 3.2
13) Jason Varitek (C ) 1.9
14) Jon Lester (SP) 6.8
15) Josh Beckett (SP) 4.6
16) Clay Buchholz (SP) 4.3
17) John Lackey (SP) 4.4
18) Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP) 2.4
19) Jonathan Papelbon (CL) 2.3
20) Daniel Bard (RP) 1.5
21) Bobby Jenks (RP) 1.2
22) Dan Wheeler (RP) 0.1 (2010)
23) Scott Atchison (RP) 0.0 (2010)
24) Tim Wakefield (RP) 1.3 (2010)
25) Hideki Okajima (RP) 0.0 (2010)
Total project War is 76.8
In comparison the 1927 Yankees had a 64.9 WAR.
These are projected WARs based on fangraphs, my only comment is that these numbers are very optimistic. For a team coming off so many injuries there will definitely be a rebound, but there is no way they come close to these predictions.
No way is Ellsbury a 4 WAR player. AGonz seems a tad bit underrated in these projections. Lowrie isn’t a 3.2 WAR player. No way is Varitek a 2 WAR player. Dice-BB is probably lower than 2 WAR too.
But barring injuries I don’t find it all implausible.
Bellsbury 4.2 WAR but Gardner 3.7? Okay
Pedroia is 6.3 and Cano 5.2
Mo 2.1, Paps 2.3.
I should add this wouldn’t surprise me by FG, they love Pedroia’s defense and don’t love Cano’s.
FWIW if we use TZ instead of UZR for Cano he’s nearly a 8 WAR player.
Oh yeah that’s BS. Gardner has shown the ability to take a lot of walks. He has shown to be arguably the best defender in the outfield.
Ellbury can hit .300, but can’t walk and has no power. And he sucks in the field.
His 70+ steals one year made him such an overrated player. Or maybe it’s because of the bloody sock but still. Extremely overrated.
yeah, the sox aregetting the media hand release on this one. Saltalamaccia has not played a full season behind yhe plate yet… lets not sew the C on his jersey just yet
I’ll do this in fWAR because that’s what the fans projection is based on. A few points on the lineup:
Ellsbury’s career high fWAR is 3.9, in 2008. He had a +21.3 UZR. Good luck topping that.
Pedroia is also overstated. He was 6.6 in his MVP year. Crawford was 6.9 just last year, so sure why not. Ditto Adrian.
Youkilis’ career high is 5.9. He’s a really good hitter when he’s healthy but I don’t think he will have a career year next year.
Ortiz and Drew’s projections aren’t nuts, ditto Scutaro.
Salty at 2.4? The guy’s career high is 0.4, in 300 PAs a couple of years ago. I’ll take the under on this one.
Also, Scutaro and Lowrie together aren’t putting up 5.2 WAR between them. One of them won’t get nearly enough playing time for that.
Here’s the projected lineup and WAR for the 2011 Yankees.
1) Brett Gardner (LF) 3.7
2) Derek Jeter (SS) 2.9
3) Mark Teixeira (1B) 5.0
4) Alex Rodriguez (3B) 4.6
5) Robinson Cano (2B) 5.2
6) Jorge Posada (DH) 1.5
7) Nick Swisher (RF) 3.1
8 ) Russel Martin (C ) 2.7
9) Curtis Granderson (CF) 3.9
10) Greg Golson (OF) 0.1 (2010)
11) Ramiro Pena (INF) -0.2 (2010)
12) Eduardo Nunez (INF) -0.1 (2010)
13) Francisco Cervelli (C ) 1.1 (2010)
14) CC Sabathia (SP) 5.1
15) Phil Hughes (SP) 3.3
16) AJ Burnett (SP) 2.3
17) Ivan Nova (SP) 0.5 (2010)
18) Sergio Mitre (SP) 0.0 (2010)
19) Mariano Rivera (CL) 2.1
20) Joba Chamberlain (RP) 1.5
21) David Robertson (RP) 1.0
22) Boone Logan (RP) 0.4 (2010)
23) Pedro Feliciano (RP) 0.8 (2010)
24) Hector Noesi (RP) 0.0
25) Romulo Sanchez (RP) 0.0 (2010)
Total projected WAR is 50.5
These numbers are a lot more realistic in comparison to the Red Sox numbers. 50.5 is a number I expect to see if the Yankees can pick up another starting pitcher to replace Mitre and fix up their bench, so I do think 50.5 is slightly optimistic for this line up.
Martin and Cervelli combined for almost 4 WAR? Riiight.
Cervelli’s 1.1 was his number from 2010. He won’t get nearly that many ABs but I could see Martin and Montero easily posting a 4.0 WAR.
Oh I’m sure Cervelli could do that much as I dislike him. I have little faith Martin can do almost 3 WAR however. The low 2′s/high 1′s maybe.
i call bullshit. r u sure you got these from fangraphs, or did they come from DirtDawgs? no way ellsbury and lackey are over 4 war with the 2010s they put up….
Lackey exceeded 4 fWAR last season.
If you don’t believe me, why not look it up for yourself?
Heres the link for Ellsbury.
http://www.fangraphs.com/stats.....n=OF#value
not doubting you or where you got your information, just thinking the information is bunk. Does not seem ‘statistically’ plausible that Lackey had THAT BAD of a season and could be a 4 WAR player in 2011, but AJ had THAT BAD of a season and will barely be worth 1/2 what Lackey will.
just not buiying it is all…
Everyone reading this does realize these are FAN projections? No fancy metric used to predict decline or improvement for any players. Just a bunch of FANS pulling numbers from their asses and voting on projected performance. Take all those numbers with enough salt to kill the world population of slugs.
really have to wonder about a metric that says Jason Varitek, Mike Cameron and Scutaro are all worth just abut as much as Mariano Rivera. (And BTW Cervelli comes out as almost as valuable as well). There is clearly something wrong with a metric that grossly undervalues the importance of late inning relievers.
Anyone who believes that the entire front four of the rotation will each have 4+ WAR is smoking some good stuff.
Even though I am a die-hard Yankees fan, I have to say: If Youkilis was a Yankee, he’d be held up as a god. I saw his projected WAR and thought it might be a little light. When healthy, that guy’s a beast.
PS – What about an obligatory Clay Rapada post?
Why does Carlos Gonzales get only a 7 year $80million contract extension offer from the Rockies while Tulowitski got a $134million extension for the same number of years? They’ve put up similar career #’s so far in their careers and are both good defensively.
CarGo solely relies on the Rockies ballpark for production.
Oh and there’s the SS thing Tulo has for him.
And Tulowitski doesn’t? Playing in Coors field has to help out him too. In fact here’s in interesting fact I read: a home run hit 400 feet in Yankee Stadium which is at sea level, would travel up to 440 feet in Coors Field in the mile high city. (courtesy of the New York Times Practical guide To Practically Everything)
Split is severe but Tulo has a .860 OPS away which is solid for a SS. He has a 1.000 OPS home which is ridiculous.
CarGo has a .700 OPS away and a .980 OPS home. Tulo’s the better hitter and has the positional advantage.
Carlos Gonzales is a five tool player who has the potential to win the triple crown and an MVP award. Even if Tulo is a better hitter(so far) and plays a more important position I think the gap between their contract extension dollars is too large.
Please. You can just throw the hitting stats of the Rockies out the window their home and road splits are so severe. They’re back to the days of Larry Walker and Dante Bichette putting up slow pitch softball numbers.
Because that’s Tulo’s 2nd contract.
Meaning CarGo’s contract buys out this year, his arbitration years and 3 FA years. Tulo’s new extension buys out 6 years of pure FA.
I did say extension you know.
Exactly. CarGo can’t demand 20m for 2011, because he’s set to make 500k this year. And he can’t demand 20m for 2012, because he won’t get that in his first year of arbitration. And he can’t demand 20m for 2013 because he probably won’t make that it his 2nd arbitration either.
That K/BB ratio . . . eek.
Another one off the broad:
“The Mets have signed pitcher Chris Capuano”
meh… is he all that much better than the Nova/Mitre sampler platter? if Cashman would have signed him, would you be at all impressed ?? yeah me neither
I think a steaming pile of horse crap would be an upgrade over Mitre.
Agree
I prefer Capuano.
and again
At least he would have been another sampler on the platter. Everyone seem to adding there sampler platter I guess Cashman on a diet.
has to keep his girlish figure on account of the scaling of buildings and what-not…
you forgot one more person’s birthday. I’ll give you a hint. He wears number 10.
Phil Rizzuto?
Eli Manning
ding ding ding
I can’t believe Eli Manning is 30.
Someone’s in denial.
The Giants’ management?
Yea, he’s 4 weeks older than me.
He’s not aging gracefully, it seems like every pass is an oh shit moment lately.
Yea, he was way too gunslinger-y during the second half, and he made a lot of bad throws/decisions.
For whatever reason.
Yup. I got to watch in 30 degree weather. We won but it was ugly. What was uglier were the clips of GB shitting on our hopes followed by loser skins fans cheering.
he’s one txt picture of his wang away from becoming this generations Brett Farve…
And like AJ Burnett, he’ll spend the next few months sitting on ass.
Happy Birthday, AJ. Oh, and fire Cashman and Joba to the starting rotation.
/Obligatory’d
What no mention of the Johnnies playing tonight at MSG against Gtown?