Mar
01

A rumor is a rumor is a rumor

By

It started with a Tweet. Jim Bowden, General Manager-turned-XMRadio host, had been talking to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale when the baseball writer let slip something between a rumor and his opinion. In the shorthand of our time, Bowden reported that Nightengale “thinks its possible that Liriano is traded to the Yanks in nxt 2 weeks for Nova or Joba +.”

That simply sentence — 140 characters of juicy Spring Training rumors — set off a flurry of everything. Twitter exploded with conversation as readers emailed us questions. Could this really be true? Would the Twins be willing to ship out left-handed ace Francisco Liriano for a package headed by either Ivan Nova or Joba Chamberlain plus some prospects? Which Yankee fan would volunteer first to drive to Minnesota with that haul to its new team?

Yet, as we said just last week, where there is smoke, there is often a fire, and later in the day, we learned of a smoke condition. As Andrew Marchand reported a short while ago, the Yankees called the Twins over Liriano earlier this offseason, according to a source. The kindling is there. Anyone got a match?

But slow down. On the record, Brian Cashman denied any current trade talks. “I’m not talking to anyone about anything right now,” the Yanks’ GM said. “Nobody’s available. Nobody of value, anyway.”

Of course, knowing Cashman’s history, that probably means some trade will go down within the next few weeks, and all of those questions about the Yanks’ rotation will disappear like a puff of smoke. Or at least, as March dawns and Opening Day draws near, I can dream.

For the Yankees, Liriano poses an interesting question. If he’s healthy and devoted, he’s an ideal left-handed pitcher for the Bombers. He’s a high strikeout guy who’s given up less than a home run per 9 innings in his Major League career. He’s also only 27, and after battling an injury that shelved him for the entire 2007 season, he’s entering his prime and nearing free agency at the same time.

Yet, as has been detailed meticulous by Jay Jaffe on Baseball Prospectus (in a subscribers-only piece), the Twins and their lefty have a tough relationship. A long time ago, when Liriano was but 24 years old, the club publicly questioned his ability to communicate with the club. They have questioned his injury history. They have questioned his approach to strike outs (which, in my and Larry Rothschild’s book, isn’t something to question). He doesn’t fit the organization as well as he might, and that leaves many wary.

Yet, as Jaffe noted, the Twins should have no reason to deal Liriano. Writes the BP scribe, “There’s little reason to believe that Liriano has peaked, that he won’t deliver value for the Twins far in excess of Pavano and the other members of the Twins’ rotation, or that the Twins can’t afford him.”

And yet, his name won’t go away. The Yanks won’t part with Jesus Montero for Liriano, and they would have to think long and hard about dealing Manny Banuelos. Yet, if the Yanks need pitching and the Twins want to rid themselves of Liriano while the returns are high, they could get a nice haul. If that package starts with Nova or even Joba, though, no one in the Bronx will think twice about pulling the trigger. Whether Twins GM Bill Smith will settle for such a seemingly low-ceiling group of players, though, will be just another saga of Spring Training. This story won’t wrap up any time too soon.

  • http://twitter.com/Carlosological Carlosologist

    CC
    Liriano
    Hughes
    Burnett
    lol whatevs

    That rotation would be great. If the Twins don’t like Liriano’s style with strikeouts (the only guy on that staff who gets them), then there is something wrong their organizational philosophy with pitchers. Strikeout guys >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> pitch-to-contact guys.

    I don’t think a deal happens anytime soon. If it’s going to take 2+ weeks to sort out a deal, it’s probably just irresponsible rumormongering.

    • brockdc

      Yeah, I that strikeout part’s easily the most hilarious line from Ben’s piece.

      That Liriano may be good, but he’s no Charlie Liebrant.

  • brockdc

    I would be shocked – shocked – if Min. took anything less than two A prospects for Liriano.

    • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

      Do you think he’s worth it? Career 109 ERA+ and has throw > 140 innings once.

      Morover, who would give them that? Haren and Oswalt and even Hallady didn’t command that type of package.

      • MannyGee

        nailed it. Liriano would be a fantastic #2 or 3. butr I am not sure if you bunch him up with Haren/Oswalt/Halladay, hell even Cliff Lee, cost wise…

        The more I think about this, the more I like the Joba/Nunez/Laird type package for Liriano. The results for their last mega haul leaves a low ceiling for success…

        • Ted Nelson

          “The results for their last mega haul leaves a low ceiling for success…”

          It’s not about the results of that package. They got 4 good prospects, it just so happened that none worked out. They got 2 top 50 BA prospects, a former top 100 who had just fallen out, and a quick rising arm who made AAA in his 2nd pro season. The Twins aren’t thinking “we didn’t get much for Santana, so let’s give Liriano away for a pile of crap borderline prospects.” Not saying his value is the same as Santana’s was, but the Yankees would have to part with a Betances/Banuelos AND Gary Sanchez to begin to match the Mets package.

          Also, their last large haul from the Yankees was Eric Milton and Cristian Guzman… not too bad.

          • MannyGee

            blah… considering the state of the state in NMinny this season, they should be looking for young major leaguers or ML ready minor leaguers, which the Yankees have in spades…

            • Ted Nelson

              They’re not going to look for crappy major league ready players they don’t even like… Brandon Laird? The corner prospect who OPS’d .744 in high A in 2009? That’s what they should be looking for in a trade? The guy who got eaten up by AAA pitching late last season?
              I’m as high on Nunez as anyone, and even I don’t think he’s an obvious upgrade over Alexi Casilla… could be better, could be worse. He might be a good guy to get to compete with Casilla, hedge, and add depth, but I doubt getting Nunez is a priority. Basically, your package comes down to them loving Joba. I just don’t think the Yankees have the leverage right now to get them to take that deal. There are probably no other pitchers on the market right now, Liriano is coming off his first good season since 2006, and the Yankees don’t know what they have in their rotation. The Twins would appear to have the leverage.

              Considering the state of their franchise, one could also argue that the Twins are better positioned to take a high upside prospect and wait a couple of years. They don’t need an immediate impact. Most of the Yankees high upside guys are pretty close, actually: Montero, Brackman, Banuelos, and Betances could/should all play in the majors at some point this season. Why is Minnesota going to look for a lesser prospect who is slightly closer? They can get that top prospect or two, plus the Nunez or whoever to round out the deal. Maybe they are Joba believers who value him with the Montero, Banuelos level prospects, but maybe they’re not. Certainly the Yankees don’t have much leverage to sell Joba as a top starting prospect or even closer at this point if the Twins aren’t already gaga for him.

    • jsbrendog (returns)

      plus he has an extensive injury history and tweaked his shoulder already this spring. no chance they get a high return

  • Jeff

    Dealing for Liriano is ideal for NY..as long as Minny doesn’t ask for the whole farm system as was the case with Santana

    • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

      Except they didn’t get anyone’s farm for Santana. Not one of the Mutts prospects acquired has even been a decent regular.

      • http://twitter.com/joero23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

        But that’s not what Jeff said, he said they asked for the whole farm system (from the Yankees).

        And to be fair, the Twins did get prospects ranked 3,4,5,6 in the Mets’ system prior to ’07 and 2,3,4,7 in the Mets’ system after the ’07 season (per Baseball America rankings). Yes, the haul seemed light to us at the time, but it’s not like they didn’t get a good chunk of the Mets’ system for Santana (it just so happened that the Mets had/have a relatively weak system).

        • MannyGee

          for the record…. The Twins wanted IPK/Melky + for Johan as their ‘last ditch effort’… and them moved to IPK/Wang…

          15 months later we got Javy for that same prospect.. I am not sure if we win or lost here…

          http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ed-wa.html

          • http://twitter.com/joero23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Not saying you’re wrong (because my point is none of us have enough information to know this for sure) but I’d be more careful about relying on rumors (about which there were conflicting reports at the time). Even in the link you provided there are conflicting rumors.

            • Ted Nelson

              Agreed.

      • Ted Nelson

        They traded for Santana prior to 2008. Prior to 2008 BA had Guerra ranked #35, Gomez ranked #52, Humber was #73 in 2007, and Mulvey reached AAA in his 2nd pro season. Let’s not write a revisionist history. Minni got 3 top 100 type prospects and an Adam Warren like arm. Now people expect the Yankees to get Liriano for nothing but a bullpen arm and guys whose *ceilings* are as average starters or utility players? The Twins are one of the best run organizations in baseball. If the Twins were to ask for the same return they got for Santana it would likely be something like Gary Sanchez (#30), Betances/Banuelos (43/41), a Noesi/Nova, and an Adam Warren.

  • James A

    The Twins seem a little short on middle infielders, with Hudson, Hardy, Punto all leaving and only the Japanese guy coming in (and who knows if he’ll be any good). I know that’s not a position of strength in the Yankees system, but Adams and Nunez are two guys that I’d be willing to part with (along with some pitching) to get a guy like Liriano. Obviously he’s had injury problems, but if he could come close to duplicating last season the Yankees would be in a much better position.

  • Gary

    Liriano would be a good pickup for the Yankees. Do not trade either Batansis, Nova or Montero.

    • YankeesJunkie

      Nova is trade bait and a back end starter at best, to get Liriano I would trade Nova in a second.

      • Klemy

        Ditto. I’ll drive him there.

    • http://www.theyankeeu.com/author/steve-s/ Nostra-Artist

      If we actually have anyone in the system named “Batansis” I’d have no problem trading him.

      • MannyGee

        yeah, anyone have a scouting report on this BatMantis that Gary mentioned?

  • stunna4885

    joba chamberlain is a pitcher who still has a big upside in this league especially if hes being viewed by another organization. 25 years old with a 95 mph fastball and quality slider… yeah i think teams like that. nova had a mid rotation ceiling probably but theres also something about a young kid with a 93-94 fastball, good changeup and more importantly good makeup. alot of yankee fans have such a convoluted view of certain players on this team in terms of undervaluing people.

    • camilo Gerardo

      Nova could also get the pitching smarts to compliment his above avg fastball (and variate it) to produce the numbers he did in AAA, in teh bigs. Remote, but very possible

    • YankeesJunkie

      Joba has big upside if the team views him as a starter and not a reliever. The Yankees view him as a reliever down the road so trading him, Nova, and a guy like Nunez/Adams/Marshall/Ramirez would be a steal for the Yankees. Liriano had a FIP under 3 and a GB% over 50, and he struck out more than 1 an and walked less than 3 per 9. There is nothing not to like about this guy and if the Yankees can get him for the deal mentioned above Cashman would be stupid not to pull the trigger and call “no trade backs” after. Liriano would be the Yankees #2 (lack of IP/GS is his only problem) and solidify shaky rotation. Nova and Joba the reliever are a lot easier commodities to find than the likes of a Francisco Liriano.

    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

      Supposedly the Twins like Joba… as a reliever too. Oh, and with Nathan and Capps at the end of that bullpen, he won’t be doing much more in the Twins’ bullpen than he would in the Yankees’.

      nova had a mid rotation ceiling probably but theres also something about a young kid with a 93-94 fastball, good changeup and more importantly good makeup. alot of yankee fans have such a convoluted view of certain players on this team in terms of undervaluing people.

      Good makeup? Like how he fell apart in the fifth inning last year? I can believe that he was fatigued, but it happened. Nova can probably be a good mid-rotation starter but if that’s the centerpiece for a pitcher like Liriano, you do it.

      • YankeesJunkie

        Agreed, I would not base what Nova did last year as future basis of him collapsing every third time through the order (most pitchers are more vulnerable as well), but Nova does not project to be more than a #3 at best, even that in NL. If the Twins really want a reliever and a mid rotation starter for Liriano you take it and dance.

        • Chip

          The thing is, the Yankees seem really really high on Nova. They seem to understand their own guys very well so I’m not sure I’d be willing to let him go just yet. If we can do it for Joba and keep Nova in the back of the rotation, I’d be a huge fan. Of course I’d still give up Nova for Liriano 8 days a week

          • YankeesJunkie

            Even the Yankees are high on Nova there is no way they see him any higher than a #3 starter. You have to give up talent to get talent and Joba and Nova have talent.

            • Chip

              Exactly why I said I’d personally trade Nova for Lirano 8 days a week. They’ll take a good hard look at the medicals though which could be the key to all of this

              • YankeesJunkie

                True, it is sort of surprising of the Twins slight distaste of their best pitcher.

                • Chip

                  Strikes too many guys out, the Twins obviously are big into low-strikeout, low-walk guys

                  • YankeesJunkie

                    True, still interesting since Liriano was easily their best pitcher who had low walk rates and a high GB%

                  • Ted Nelson

                    “Strikes too many guys out, the Twins obviously are big into low-strikeout, low-walk guys”

                    That could be it… or it could be that he’s had 2 good MLB seasons 4 years apart. You can possibly sell him right now at his highest value in 4 years to a very strong team that is somewhat desperate for a #2 starter, while simultaneously sidestepping the risk of his next good season not coming for 4 years or extending his contract and then him having 3 straight bad/injured seasons while you’re paying him $15-20 mill.

                • David

                  It sure is. He makes 4.3M as the #1 starter for a team that should be favored to win it’s division. He, at age 27 I believe, wanted 3/36. They wouldn’t give it to him. The Jim Bowden “tweet” said that he would be traded for Nova or Joba. If that is what is being talked about, combined with all of the above, you have to wonder about his health.

          • A.D.

            Eh they were really really high on Joba and IPK, and they have not/did not live up to that “highness” with the organization

          • Ted Nelson

            We can speculate about how high the Yankees are on Nova, but they know exactly how high they are on him… If they don’t want to include him, they won’t.

      • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

        That’s a lame critique. He didn’t fall apart because of his makeup. He fell apart because he would become predictable the third time through the lineup. That’s addressable as a pitcher learns their craft.

        A pitcher like Liriano? You mean one who isn’t even 10% above the league and has yet to prove he can stay healthy?

        The Yankees screwed the pooch when they passed on Haren and Oswalt.

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          Meh. Sure it’s addressable. That doesn’t mean it didn’t happen just about every damn time and he didn’t pout off the mound after it did.

          Yes, I mean a pitcher like Liriano. More or less flawless aces like Felix, Verlander, and Lester aren’t getting traded. Liriano’s health is a question mark; if he’s healthy, his performance isn’t. That said, Nova’s basically an innings eater and even if they are looking at Joba as a starter, there’s even more risk associated there than with Liriano in terms of health and performance.

          The Yankees could’ve gotten Haren or Oswalt, but if they get Liriano for Joba or Nova, it’s a ridiculous steal. Which is why I can’t see it happening.

      • http://www.theyankeeu.com/author/steve-s/ Nostra-Artist

        Yes. You can’t overvalue an innings eater when looking at an elite lefty.

        • Jimmy McNulty

          Except were not looking at an elite lefty. CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, John Danks, David Price, and Clayton Kershaw are all better. Liriano’s pitched over 150 innings exactly once in his career and has a huge history of injuries in the past. The Twins should be lucky to get something good out of him while he’s healthy. They’re not getting a top 30 prospect, nor should they expect one.

      • MannyGee

        I disagree. I don’t think the 5th inning breakdowns for Nova is ‘makeup’ related.

        I am just not sure that he has the ‘stuff’ to get through a major league lineup 4 times in a night

      • The Big City of Dreams

        “Supposedly the Twins like Joba… as a reliever too.”

        Where did you hear that from? Is that in the USA Today report?

        • MannyGee

          that is Ninja Twinkie talk. I am guaranteeing Joba in a rotation when he is not longer in Pinstripes…

        • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

          It was on ESPN NY.

    • MannyGee

      BUT HES FAAAaAaAaaTTTTttT!!11!1!!

      /MSM’d

  • Ryan

    joba, brackman, and romine… seeyalataaa

    • Chip

      Joba, Romine and Phelps and we have a deal. I feel like Phelps is just the sort of guy the Twins would go after. If they feel they don’t need the catching depth, give them either Adams or Nunez instead.

      CC
      Liriano
      Hughes
      Burnett
      Garcia/Brackman??

      That could be a fun rotation to watch

      • YankeesJunkie

        Considering the Yankees have one of the best if not the best offense it would be very fun to watch. It is sort of shocking to hit that before the season starts that Derek Jeter is the worst starting hitter on the team.

  • nathan

    It Wasnt Kappa (2/28/2011 at 11:03 PM)

    Jesus Montero, Manny B, Dellin Betances – should do the trick – yankees can replace those guys in a deep 2011 draft – pull the trigger cashman – and that will be a huge step towards being on par with Red Sox – after Sabathia – the Yanks rotation may be worse then the Mets 2-5…gross.

    ======================

    Saw this on ESPN Conversation.

    Thank God I had my Orange juice this morning

    • YankeesJunkie

      ….why you can’t go on ESPN conversations.

      • nathan

        true that.

    • MannyGee

      this guy might actually have a mental disability…

    • Klemy

      My lord. There are so many things wrong with that, there is no point in responding to it. lol

    • Sean C

      Well, he kind of IS right. Those three would land Liriano. Every Yankee fan should have a huge problem with doing that, and the fact that he doesn’t understand why that’s a problem, is why that post was on ESPN’s Conversation pages.

  • scottnar

    there are a lot of great points being made. that top 4 does look really appealing on paper…but I don’t know how completely sold I am on Liriano given all the factors already mentioned. I agree his upside and experience are huge. But maybe they could just wait a little and see what these kids got before unloading them all to win now. Why can’t they win now with what they got. I love Montero et. al. hang on to them let the season play out for a little while and let cashman feel the field out a little. Who knows what could be available come July 31. Does the best team on paper always win…I don’t think anyone could have envisioned what transpired in 96 when we let the kids and and trades (21) takeover, be patient and maybe history will repeat itself. liriano is not worth the farm. This team still knows how to will itself to win

    • YankeesJunkie

      Giving up Joba and Nova is hardly giving up the kids. Montero won’t be in any trade discussions because they have Mauer,if Banuelos or Betances is involved it because a much tougher decision.

      • Chip

        Agreed, neither of these guys have the type of ceilings anymore that will earn them a long-term gig with the Yankees. Maybe if Joba becomes somebody in between 2010 and 2007 Joba he might end up being a good set-up guy or a closer on the high end but it’s likely that he’ll just end up a really good reliever.

        Nova would immediately be improved upon by having Liriano in the rotation and probably doesn’t have a great shot at being on this team long term with the possible huge 2012-2013 free agent pitching class and the pitchers coming up through the system all having higher ceilings than him.

        • YankeesJunkie

          Agreed, Liriano may only be a Yankee for two years,but if he continues to perform well like in 2010 there is no doubt that the Yankees will push hard to sign him unless Betances and Banuelos just become bonafide studs within the next two years which will most likely not happen.

  • Ultimate Yankee Warrior (James)

    Even while Joba’s ceiling may now be low, because of the way the Yankees never developed him, he was once the top pitching prospect in all of baseball and is still only 25. It’s hard to see how that’s not a decent lead to the package.

    No way in hell you include Baneulos. Liriano is fine, but he’s never thrown 200 innings in a season, and only last year he topped 140 IP for the first time. He could be about to find his groove or he could always be the guy that could never stay healthy. You don’t bet 6 years of a top tier young pitcher for that. I wouldn’t even include Nova.

    Heck, look what the Mutts gave for Santana. Or the packages for Haren and Oswalt. None fronted a player as good as Joba’s pedigree. Yes, Liriano is cheap. But he’s been hurt way too often. Joba and Phelps and Noesi should be plenty good enough. More importantly, what organization would top that package?

    • http://www.theyankeeu.com/author/steve-s/ Nostra-Artist

      and only last year he topped 140 IP for the first time.

      http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....co-Liriano

      He topped 190 innings in 05, 08 and 2010. Look at the minors, folks.

      • http://www.theyankeeu.com/author/steve-s/ Nostra-Artist

        BTW-He topped 150 IP as a 20 year old as well.

      • Mister Delaware

        “Ummm … not so sure that’s such a great idea.” – Luis Polonia

        • Nostra-Artist

          I would have went with “that’s what I do”-LP

          But nonetheless, bravo.

      • Ted Nelson

        He’s had 2 good major league seasons… And 2005? That was 6 years ago. He’s had healthy seasons 3 of the past 6 seasons, one of them at the MLB level, and that’s a good thing? People are freaking out about Rafa Soriano’s health and he’s been healthy 4 of the past 5 seasons.

        • pete

          soriano is a reliever who is going to be making about as much next year as Liriano, a borderline elite starter

          • Ted Nelson

            Soriano came at the cost of a #31 pick… we have no idea what the cost of Liriano might be. At the right cost I would accept the risk. A #31 pick has maybe a 10% chance of ever being a good major leaguer, you might get the pick back or double when Soriano leaves, and you can make up for it with a later pick or IFA signing… that’s a really low cost. When we’re talking about multiple top 100 prospects in the high minors… the cost starts to get a lot higher.

            And let’s not act like the Yankees are under a tight budget. I really don’t think the Soriano money is going to stop them from getting someone they really want. Liriano himself is going to get a really large deal shortly should be stay healthy. He will probably make 2x what Soriano does.

            Again, Liriano has been a borderline elite starter 2 of the past 5 seasons. If you don’t like my Soriano comparison (80% health being looked at as a liability while 40% health isn’t is just silly… but whatever), how about Carpenter being looked at as a liability?

            Anyway… if you’re going to overlook the Liriano injuries I hope you weren’t among those whining about Soriano’s injury risk. 2 of 5 vs. 4 of 5.

    • Ted Nelson

      “Heck, look what the Mutts gave for Santana.”

      2 top 50-type prospects, a guy one year removed from being #73, and a guy who made AAA in his 2nd pro season?

      Joba is a relief pitcher the Yankees just made clear they don’t trust in the 8th inning. You can’t really say he’s not a starter and you don’t trust him in the 8th… but then turn around and value him as a former top prospect in a trade. The Nuggets didn’t tell the Knicks Shelden Williams was a future All-Star because he was a former #5 overall pick…

      “More importantly, what organization would top that package?”

      It all depends how the Twins feel about certain pitchers. If they share the Yankees view of Joba… any team could top that package easily. The Twins also don’t HAVE to trade Liriano. Even if there is no other team bidding, the Yankees have to offer enough to motivate the Twins to move Liriano instead of just keeping him.

  • Phil

    This guy hits where ever he goes & still no place for him in the bigs; criminal. If he’s out of options, some team such as (take your pick) the Pirates, Nationals, Royals, Mariners should pick him up when he’s placed on waivers and make room for him either at 1b or for the AL teams, d/h. I’d bet if he got the chance to play somewhere for at least half a season or more, Vazquez could put up real deal #’s.

    • http://twitter.com/astrophunq Dax J.

      Wrong topic, bub.

      • MannyGee

        no. Liriano could definately out-hit the Bucs or Nats… (Werth not withstanding)

  • Henry

    How about giving them three pitchers that “fit the mold” that they like? Perhaps Noesi, Warren, and DJ Mitchell? =-o and maybe throw in an Adams or even Laird? Both perhaps? Who knows, the Twins are a strange org. and like contact guys like Adams, and “finesse” pitchers like those.

    • 28 this year

      I would hesistate to throw all three, Noesi, Warren, and Mitchell cause that reduces our depth from a lot to Phelps. I would deal two of those plus Adams/Laird without a doubt though. I think we could weather the loss of Adams/Laird better than losing all three of Noesi, Warren, and Mitchell.

      • Henry

        I was just saying to throw all three probably in the event that that’s what it’ll take if it’s those lower tier prospects. I don’t worry about our depth because we would still have Nova, Garcia, Colon, Brackman, and Phelps ALL for just ONE rotation spot. That is MORE than enough depth, imo.

  • JohnC

    I say no to Montero, Banuelos or Betances. Anyone else is fair game. Now if we’re talking about King Felix, thats another story

    • The Big City of Dreams

      “I say no to Montero, Banuelos or Betances.”

      So I take it you haven’t been a Twins message board.

      • The Big City of Dreams

        been on a*

  • Stryker

    all i’ve read in this thread is “my trade proposal is better than your trade proposal”.

    • Nostra-Artist

      And as we all know ‘Your Trade Proposal Sucks’

    • jsbrendog (returns)

      and they all suck

  • Monteroisdinero

    Prefer to keep Nova over Joba. Agree with most all other trade pieces if we can get it done. Let’s throw in Cervelli to get it done!

  • bonestock94

    At this point I would be devastated if we lost a killer B or the jesus. Liriano would be an awesome trade though.

  • bakekrukow412

    If the Twinkies want to dump Liriano so badly, why not try and work out some sort of three team trade, with Liriano going to Seattle, King Felix coming here, and prospects going to both Minnesota and Seattle. Although, Felix is under control longer tha Liriano, so Seattle may not go for it.

    • bakekrukow412

      The more I think about this the more I like it. If Seattle gets Liriano, they would still probably want alot from us, but nowhere near as much as before, because they are already getting an ace pitcher entering his prime. Maybe if we throw in one of the killer B’s and either Romine/Sanchez and maybe another prospect, they would go for that. And we could still send Nova/Joba/Nunez to Minnesota. Even though we’d be giving up alot of quantity, we could still keep Montero, 2 out of three Killer B’s, and end up with Felix. Feel free to let me know if this is crazy talk.

      • pat

        Why on earth would Seattle trade King Felix for Liriano? Honestly, would you do that as the Seattle GM? Especially after getting him to sign a pretty team friendly extension?

      • Russell NY

        Crazy talk. In no way would acquiring Liriano lessen the cost of Felix, for Seattle.

    • Ryan

      that is just ridiculous

    • pete

      the only way i could imagine that working is if Seattle got Liriano, Montero, and Banuelos, and Minnesota got Betances, Brackman, Nova, Nunez, and Adams/Laird. And even then, that’s iffy. No thanks.

      Felix isn’t coming here until his current deal is either up or nearly up. And it’s not guaranteed then either (look at Lee).

  • David

    Twins needs – A young catcher to develop, given that they have traded Ramos. A second baseman, as they don’t seem to have much there. Pitching, which I believe that they would look at through the lens of their huge ballpark.

    Romine, Adams, one of Noesi, Warren or Nova would likely do it.

    I am somewhat suspicious of this, as the Twins are a very sharp organization that apparently didn’t want to sign Liriano to a long-term deal. However, if he is healthy he is an ideal fit behind CC, instantly making the Yankees a better team.

    • Johnny O

      Joe Mauer at 9/$180M negates the need for a catcher unless he needs amputation. That’s why they traded Ramos. C’mon

      • jsbrendog (returns)

        ietc

      • Ted Nelson

        Probably. Keith Law would apparently move Mauer off C, though, because he’s “too big” for the position… In all seriousness, though, at some point they might look to protect that investment long-term by moving Mauer to, say, 1B. He’d still have an elite bat at any position. This is probably not that time with Morneau at 1B and Mauer still young and healthy… unless they’re really thinking ahead and want a package headlined by Sanchez.

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com/ bexarama

        They really need a better backup catcher this season, their backup guy is someone who OBPed .296 and SLGed .317……. in the minors. For totally understandable reasons, the Twins are very very protective of Mauer, who seems a little beat up a lot of the time anyway. Honestly, and I’m not saying that Cervelli would get the package done or anything, Cervelli would be an improvement over Drew Butera.

        • Ted Nelson

          Yeah, agreed. It’s something they might like in the package, but alone it’s probably not going to motivate them to move Liriano.

    • Ted Nelson

      “Romine, Adams, one of Noesi, Warren or Nova would likely do it.”

      One top 100 prospect (#98) for a #2 starter? I know it’s popular to revise the Santana deal based on how the prospects worked out, but they got 2 top 50 BA prospects, a guy one year removed from being #73, and a P who dominated his way to AAA in his 2nd pro season. This is a sharp organization, and they’re unlikely to just give Liriano to the Yankees… especially when another team might step in and outbid them. Liriano is a big risk, but I have a hard time seeing the Twins just give him away for 3 fairly low ceiling prospects. You never know who specifically they like, but I see at least 1 high profile guy. The Twins have the market cornered right now, as no other team is likely offering up a starter before the season even starts.

      “I am somewhat suspicious of this, as the Twins are a very sharp organization that apparently didn’t want to sign Liriano to a long-term deal.”

      He’s had two good seasons 4 seasons apart… 2006 and 2010… Who would be rushing to give him a long-term deal?

      • David

        I disagree with your premise of continually comparing this to the Santana trade. Santana was one of the elite starters in baseball, which Liriano clearly is not. Santana had several ERA years under 3.00, pitching in the Metrodome hitter’s paradise, and for a few years was about 50-50 to win the Cy Young every time he teed it up. There were years where with more support he would have won 25 games.

        • Ted Nelson

          He was also about to get $20 mill per that the Twins couldn’t afford and few other teams could. There was a limited demand for Santana. Compared to other expiring pitchers in-line for huge extensions their old team couldn’t afford the Twins did quite well.

          Anyway, I’m not saying they will get as much as for Santana. I was not the one who brought up the Santana deal, and I only continually refer to it because people continually use it to assume the Twins are a stupid organization that will give away players.

          If you actually read my comment you’ll see the context I put the Santana deal in. This is not a dumb organization that gives away players. I feel like you are selling them short and assuming they’ll take B-prospects from a team with plenty of A-prospects.

          I just don’t think the Twins would be interested in Romine, Adams, and an ok pitching prospect as a package. Unless they’re really eying moving Mauer off C soon, I think the deal will need to be headlined by a better player… and even then they might be angling for Montero or Sanchez instead of Romine.

          You’ve basically taken three prospects with limited value to the Yankees. Will be great if it works out that way, but it looks like a real homer package to me.

          • David

            They aren’t moving Mauer, but they would like a young one to develop, with a goal of eventually reducing Mauer’s catching load. He has had two knee surgeries, and they are concerned about that. That is why I thought of Romine.

            Their second baseman is Alexi Casillas, who could only be described as a disaster. They don’t have anything coming up behind him. That is why someone like Adams might appeal.

            Warren may be the best of the non-B’s, which is why I thought of him.

            The rumor, which was from good sources, seemed to be straight up for Joba or Nova. This is certainly far in excess of that, and I believe it is similar to what a trade would look like. If they want more than something like this, I greatly doubt that Cashman will pay it

            • Ted Nelson

              Again, the Yankees have at least 2 C prospects who are better prospects than Romine. They’re giving up their best pitcher for a package headlined by the Yankees 3rd best C prospect? I think Romine would be more of a #2 or 3 part of the deal. It’s really questionable whether he’ll ever be a starting C.

              “Their second baseman is Alexi Casillas”

              Pretty sure he’s their starting SS and Nishioka is their starting 2B. Again, I can see Adams being part of a deal, but I think you’re overvaluing him because he’s a Yankee prospect.

              “Warren may be the best of the non-B’s, which is why I thought of him.”

              But why are they taking a non-B instead of a B?

              “The rumor, which was from good sources, seemed to be straight up for Joba or Nova.”

              I don’t think it was. “Bowden reported that Nightengale “thinks its possible that Liriano is traded to the Yanks in nxt 2 weeks for Nova or Joba +.”” “+” could mean + Jesus + Banuelos + Betances + Robinson Cano + the ghost of Babe Ruth + … Obviously not, but it could mean anything. I have seen no rumor that it’s a straight up deal with no prospects. Remember that the Javy deal was reported as being for Melky Cabrera, while Arodys was the reason Atlanta pulled the trigger. The average fan knows nothing about prospects and so the media reports about the guys they know.

              “If they want more than something like this, I greatly doubt that Cashman will pay it”

              Then I don’t think Cashman will get Liriano right now. He’s the only starter on the market. The Twins have great leverage and don’t have to trade him. If all they wanted was 3 b-prospects for him… he’d be in pinstripes already.

              • David

                Others will be on the market soon. They aren’t going to give up any of their top prospects for Liriano. They will go with something like Nova and Garcia and wait, which won’t be terribly exciting for the Twins if he gets injured again.

                • Ted Nelson

                  Glad Brian Cashman decided to join the board under the alias of “David.”

                  I am not in favor of overpaying for Liriano or anyone else, but you have to give something to get something. You have the Yankees giving up a better prospect for one year of a 34 year old Javy Vazquez than for a 27 year old Francisco Liriano. Anyone else good who becomes available is not going to be available for free either.

                  You say, why would the Yankees give up a good prospect for Liriano? But why would the Twins give up Liriano without getting a good prospect?

                  If he doesn’t get injured it’s going to be really exciting to the Twins. You have to actually quantify these things. There’s a risk he’s injured, but there’s a chance he’s a 6 WAR pitcher or around there. With all the prospects there’s a chance they’re injured, a very real chance they never make it, and none of the guys you mention have more than maybe 2 WAR potential in the reasonable best case… if you figure those guys have maybe 20% shots at 2 WAR and Liriano has maybe a 40% shot at 6 WAR, you take 2.4 over 1.2 every time. If I’m the Twins I just don’t take that deal. But I don’t know how the Twins feel about specific prospects, so I have no idea.

                  • David

                    An offer similar to what I am suggesting is exactly what Cash should do in this circumstance. He has about a 92 win team that has about an 80% chance of making the playoffs. There is no reason at all to gut the farm system for Francisco Liriano. Look at the judgement that the Twins have already made about him – 27 yrs old, coming off of a good year, not worth a multi-year deal like they just gave to Carl Pavano.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      That’s where he should start, maybe, but I think the Twins will hang up the phone and tell him to call back when he’s serious. Or tell him “we have 28 other teams with offers that good or better… do you want Liriano or not?” This is a guy only making $4.3 mill… any team can afford to pay him, and can make an offer of a few b-prospects while taking the risk/reward ratio he offers.

                      You don’t have to gut the farm system to make a better offer than Romine, Adams, and Warren. Your offer, again, is only prospects who have limited value to the Yankees. You can give up one or two Betances, Brackman, Sanchez prospect and not “gut the farm system.” If you read all my comments you will see that I am mostly specifically arguing not to gut the farm system or overpay for Liriano. However, you also can’t prospect hug and ignore that the vast majority of prospects never work out. Because their odds of working out are so low, you’re usually not going to get much for a few b-prospects unless you’re eating salary.

                      He’s under team control for 2 more seasons and Carl Pavano was a free agent… you’re comparing apples and oranges. Either they re-signed Pavano or lost him. Of course they don’t want to re-sign Liriano when his value is the highest it’s been in 4 years and there’s no guarantee he can stay healthy and effective. That doesn’t mean that they want to give him away or that they won’t re-sign him with another healthy season or two under his belt. It doesn’t say anything about how they judge him, and certainly doesn’t mean they think he’s as worthless as your package suggests. It just says they are a smart team not guaranteeing money to a guy they have for 2 years anyway.

  • A.D.

    At this point if Yanks make a trade that doesn’t include Monetero or the Bs fans will pretty much be happy.

  • Russell NY

    What are you talking about low ceiling? Joba is the next Roger Clemens. If anything, the Twins should throw in Joe Nathan! =X

  • Yank the Frank

    Doesn’t Liriano have a sore shoulder in ST? He may be damaged goods.

    • CS Yankee

      Maybe he is in…

      Operation: Shutdown

      • jsbrendog (returns)

        blast from the past

        O:S

  • Wil Nieves #1 Fan
  • CS Yankee

    As long as it doesn’t include our top 5 (3-B’s & the 2-C’s), you pretty much should do it.

    However, if they start with Joba, Nova &…, Cash will counter with less. Maybe a Joba or Nova plus two others (Adams, Mitchell, Noesi, Nunez, Vasquez, etc.).

    Just don’t trade a Dealin’ Dellin, ManBan, Brackmonster, Jesus or Sanchez. Everything else on the shelf is fine.

  • http://twitter.com/cephster Ross in Jersey

    I’ll add my worthless two cents in here.

    First of all, I’m assuming that Liriano’s medicals check out and there are no red flags about his arm or anything. If there is, that obviously throws the following out the window.

    I would put everyone on the table except for Montero when it comes to trading for Liriano. To me, he represents the one chance for the Yankees to pick up an elite-level starter in the next 2 years. The chances of a young, front-end starter getting traded this year is extremely unlikely. The 2012 free agent class is incredibly light on good starters. 2013 looks better, but that’s what feels like a lifetime away.

    The Yankees have a stacked farm, now is the time to use it. Not every prospect is can’t-miss, in fact the majority of them WILL miss. The state of the Yankees farm, the availability of Liriano, the lack of good starters being available in the future… it’s a perfect storm. If Cash can ninja him away for Joba or Nova then I’ll erect a shrine in his honor, but I’d be prepared to give up a lot more.

    • Johnny O

      Agree that there’s waaay too much prospect hugging going on at the moment. Someone above said they didn’t want to trade Noesi, Warren and DJ Mitchell because it would hurt our depth….really? REALLY?! None of those guys will start more than 10 games in the Yankee careers, if their ML careers. They are the definition of replacement players. For a top 5 Lefty under team control for 2 years, everyone except Jesus and Manny are expendable. I’d like to keep them, but even Betances and Brackman are more projection than anything.

      • Reggie C.

        Oh sooooooooo THIS.

        Betances is wild card prospect who I would be willing to lose in acquiring Liriano. Brackman’s polish as a starter is coming around nicely, but I’d trade a good 25 year old prospect with limited AAA experience for Liriano ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. Brackman hasnt shown dominance on a level of Banny or Betances.

        Betances or Brackman + one of the rest of the farm pitching prospects NOT named Banuelos + CoJo or D. Adams for LIRIANO.

    • Ted Nelson

      “To me, he represents the one chance for the Yankees to pick up an elite-level starter in the next 2 years.”

      Or developing one internally. Or a Carpenter type who is old and expensive money wise, but cheap prospect wise. Liriano has two good seasons 4 seasons apart… is he even an “elite-level” starter?

      “Not every prospect is can’t-miss, in fact the majority of them WILL miss.”

      That doesn’t mean you just trade them all indiscriminately for guys with two good major league seasons. The Yankees farm was stacked in the mid-90s… should they have packaged Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Mo, and Bernie to get a Kenny Rogers or Kevin Appier?

      I’m all for a Liriano deal at the right price. I think the right price will be more than Nova, Nunez, Laird as some people are suggesting. However, when you start to think he’s the only good pitcher who will be available for 2 seasons… that’s where you get desperate, give the Twins all the leverage, and give up way too much for a guy with 2 good MLB seasons 4 seasons apart.

      Let’s not act like Liriano is the only guy who might be available just because he’s available first. Carpenter, a White Sox starter or two (Buehrle, Jackson, Danks, Floyd), Cain, CJ Wilson, an Angels starter (Weaver, Santana), and Billingsly are all being mentioned in the rumor mill.

      • RL

        +1

        And, there is no rush to complete a deal before the season even begins. As teams begin to see they can’t compete, other options will become available that may be less expensive prospect-wise.

      • http://twitter.com/cephster Ross in Jersey

        Or developing one internally. Or a Carpenter type who is old and expensive money wise, but cheap prospect wise. Liriano has two good seasons 4 seasons apart… is he even an “elite-level” starter?

        Any internal Yankee options are a year or two away from even throwing a pitch in the majors. I’m not looking that far ahead, and that’s (wrongly) assuming they’d dominate right away.

        If the Cards trade Carpenter I’d be surprised. They need more starting pitching, not less.

        As for Liriano, he has a history of arm trouble, yes. But if you doubt his talent level I don’t know what to tell you. His FIP was absurdly low last year.

        That doesn’t mean you just trade them all indiscriminately for guys with two good major league seasons. The Yankees farm was stacked in the mid-90s… should they have packaged Jeter, Pettitte, Posada, Mo, and Bernie to get a Kenny Rogers or Kevin Appier?

        Well gee Ted, your point sure sounds better when you use hindsight to pick out all the Yankee prospects who panned out. *rolls eyes*

        I’m all for a Liriano deal at the right price. I think the right price will be more than Nova, Nunez, Laird as some people are suggesting. However, when you start to think he’s the only good pitcher who will be available for 2 seasons… that’s where you get desperate, give the Twins all the leverage, and give up way too much for a guy with 2 good MLB seasons 4 seasons apart.

        Giving up Montero would be too much. Giving up a package centered around one of the other top prospects seems pretty fair to me.

        Let’s not act like Liriano is the only guy who might be available just because he’s available first. Carpenter, a White Sox starter or two (Buehrle, Jackson, Danks, Floyd), Cain, CJ Wilson, an Angels starter (Weaver, Santana), and Billingsly are all being mentioned in the rumor mill.

        None of those White Sox starters are elite. Neither is CJ Wilson or Ervin Santana, and Weaver isn’t a FA until 2013. I’ve talked about wanting Cain in the past, but he’s an extreme long shot to be traded and isn’t a FA until 2013. Billingsly also isn’t an elite talent, and again isn’t a FA until 2013. Like I said, if the Twins truely want to move Liriano, I think he’s the best shot the Yankees will have for at least another 2 years.

        • Ted Nelson

          My point is that there are options. You don’t have to overpay for Liriano and make everyone available the way you suggest.

          “Any internal Yankee options are a year or two away from even throwing a pitch in the majors. I’m not looking that far ahead, and that’s (wrongly) assuming they’d dominate right away.”

          Brackman could well break camp in the rotation if he shows enough in camp. They’ve got a bunch of options who could be ready this season. You don’t have to look that far ahead.

          You can’t expect them to dominate right away, but it’s certainly possible. Look no further than Liriano himself for proof. At 22 he did dominate. To suggest that these guys can’t dominate is as silly as to suggest that they will. At some point if the asking price is too high I take my chances internally instead of paying a king’s ransom.

          “If the Cards trade Carpenter I’d be surprised. They need more starting pitching, not less.”

          Unless you are the GM of the Cards I don’t really care if you’ll be surprised, to be perfectly honest. There is certainly as good an argument that they should move Carpenter as that they should keep him. He’s 36 and could bring back a much better long-term return in a trade than in a Card’s uniform.

          “As for Liriano, he has a history of arm trouble, yes. But if you doubt his talent level I don’t know what to tell you. His FIP was absurdly low last year.”

          It seems like you are just ignoring all of his negatives and calling him an elite pitcher. There are negatives and potential negatives that you can’t just ignore.

          In 2009 he was healthy enough to make 24 starts and pitched to a 4.87 FIP and was 1.1 WAR. In 2008 he was healthy all season in AAA and only pitched to a 3.87 FIP and 1.5 WAR in 14 MLB starts. There is no guarantee whatsoever that he repeats his 2010 season in 2011. Even if he’s fully healthy and pitching only at Target Field. It’s one data point, there is no guarantee he’s a 6 WAR pitcher every season. Even if he’s more of a 4-5 WAR guy in an average season he’s right in line with a lot of the guys you saying are “not elite.”

          Have you noticed that Liriano’s ERA was over a run higher on the road last season? That on his career his ERA is almost 2 runs higher on the road?

          He’s averaged 2.9 WAR the past 3 seasons. He has not been an elite pitcher besides 2 seasons. That’s all I said. Nothing at all about his talent level. If you doubt Nick Johnson’s eye I don’t know what to tell you, but doesn’t mean you trade the farm for him. I am not a doctor. Liriano has very rarely been healthy and effective, though. I’d want a very encouraging report from my medical team before taking that risk. Signing Johnson to a 1 year 5.5 mill deal is different from offering to unload a bunch of prospects for Liriano.

          “Well gee Ted, your point sure sounds better when you use hindsight to pick out all the Yankee prospects who panned out. *rolls eyes*”

          Well gee… keeping your prospects allows you to keep the ones who will pan out. No where did I say that I wouldn’t trade prospects for Liriano. All I said is that your gung-ho approach of throwing anyone not named Montero or Banuelos at them for this “elite pitcher” seems very unwise, both in terms of giving up the prospects and taking back a huge risk like Liriano. I’d rather just let Cashman handle the negotiations. At the right price certainly you do it. At the wrong price, though, the Yankees have other options.

          “None of those White Sox starters are elite.”

          Saying Danks is not elite, but a guy like Cain is…

          The Yankees don’t NEED an “elite” pitcher. A good #2 starter and they are as strong a contender for the WS as anyone.

          Liriano has averaged 2.9 WAR the past three seasons. Danks has averaged 4.1; Buehrle, 3.9; Floyd, 3.8; Jackson, 2.9. If they’re significantly cheaper in terms of prospects all 4 of those guys *could* be better bets than Liriano. Again… I’m not a doctor and I don’t know what the Twins are looking for vs. what the Sox might be looking for… I’m just saying keep an open mind. Yankees don’t NEED Liriano. There is a decent chance they are better off going in another direction, but there’s also a decent chance he’s their best option.

          “Neither is CJ Wilson”

          He’s got a short track record, like Liriano, but Wilson was 4.4 WAR in 2010. That would have made him the Yankees clear cut #2 starter last season.

          “Like I said, if the Twins truely want to move Liriano, I think he’s the best shot the Yankees will have for at least another 2 years.”

          That’s pure speculation. ESPN is also good at speculation and they have all those guys listed as possible trade candidates this season.

          The Twins are also making Liriano available now for good reasons. He’s coming off his best season, so his value is high. He’s far enough away from free agency that his value is still high and they can afford to hold. The Yankees may be desperate for a good starter… desperate enough, maybe, to value Liriano as if he were Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay or any other pitcher who he is not. I don’t know that the Twins are motivated to dump Liriano so much as they are willing to move him at the right price.

          I cannot just ignore Liriano’s negatives because he has some big potential positives. I also am not going to assume that no other good pitchers will be made available in the next 2 years. I’m not just going to ignore 4-5 WAR pitchers as “non-elite” if their price tag is a lot lower than Liriano’s… who was worth a whole 1-2 WAR above that in his very best season, but has never been worth moer than 4.1 in any other season. I mean Liriano will continue to be a 6 WAR starter every season, but none of those guys have any shot at improving? Not 26 year old Chad Billingsley or Matt Cain? Liriano picked up 4.9 WAR from 2009 to 2010, but none of those guys can pick up a WAR or two?

          • http://twitter.com/joero23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            There’s way too much being discussed here and I really don’t mean to butt-in, but I just wanted to make one point that I think Ted touched on in this conversation without explicitly exploring… I think people tend to underrate the injury factor, when considering a player who is currently healthy as a free agent or trade-target. (Not attacking anyone here, I’ve certainly been guilty of this in the past.) It’s very easy to say ‘Liriano, when healthy, is a top pitcher’, and then move into valuing him as you see him when he’s healthy, but I think in doing so we tend to disregard health issues a bit. Yes, when Liriano is healthy, like he was in 2010, he’s very very good. But we can’t just forget about his health history, here. There is a certain amount of risk attached to Liriano, and you have to account for that.

            • Ted Nelson

              Great point. That’s definitely part of what I was getting at.

              Besides just health, I also think last season’s performance is always overvalued. This is as true for big league clubs as fans. We’ve seen plenty of guys have one good season and then get a relatively big deal they never deserved before that season and fail to live up to. Besides just health, we have no guarantee Liriano is always as good as 2010. He’s much better at home than on the road. He was healthy enough to pitch in 2008 and 2009 (mostly in the minors in 2008)–I don’t know exactly how healthy he was of course–and did not pitch nearly as well as in 2010. People are just excusing that as part of the recovery process, when I don’t think they have any idea how healthy he was or wasn’t. Maybe it was part of the recovery process, but maybe he just stunk.

              As fans we’re working with really imperfect info, not that clubs necessarily even have perfect info. How much did a guy’s injury impact him and how “injury prone” is he in the future? Along with performance expectations these things have to be at least loosely quantified to make a rational decision on a player. I like Liriano a lot as a trade target, but we can’t just act like he’s a no-brainer 6+ WAR annually pitcher like a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.

  • Mister Delaware

    Would he have to pitch out of the pen due to his past shoulder problems?

    • Klemy

      Well played, sir.

  • Ted Nelson

    Nova/Joba might be mentioned as the headliner because they are the known major league quantity… that doesn’t mean the “+” won’t be better than them. Melky “headlined” the Javy deal in the media even though Arodys was the prize of that package.

    • jsbrendog (returns)

      this is a good point

  • Slu

    The love affair with Nova on this site is getting comical. I am rooting for the guy, but I will be surprised if he ever is a regular member of a contending team’s rotation for an entire season. You trade him for a proven pitcher everytime.

    • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

      Some commenters have a love affair with Nova. The three of us running the site aren’t hugging him much.

      • pete

        that.

    • Ted Nelson

      I don’t think anyone is suggesting not trading Nova for Liriano straight up… or at least that’s certainly not the consensus.

      The Twins are not dumb. They’re not just giving Liriano away. It’s not going to be Nova for Liriano. It’s going to be Nova/Joba plus one and probably more of the team’s top prospects.

      And what proven pitcher are you referring to? Liriano has 2 good MLB seasons 4 seasons apart. What has he proven? More than Nova certainly, but if the Twins are asking for, say, Nova + Banuelos + Betances + … it starts to become a much harder pill to swallow.

  • Hurling Darvish

    I think Liriano’s questionable health, serviceability, and make up will be factors that could keep the price down, while age, recent production and current contract increases his value. He should definitely command less than Greinke did in prospects (who only had make up questions); maybe around what Haren cost?

    BTW, I’m glad we didn’t trade for Greinke, he a good pitcher but the Yanks can’t have a guy who doesn’t or can’t talk to anybody.

    I still can’t wrap my brain around why Liriano would be on the block now, as opposed to during the off-season or later toward the 2011 trade dealine. Either the Twins hate him or are very concerned about this near term health or feel that demand/supply right now allows them to get a mega-package for him.

    • Johnny O

      Just because the Twins believe they are “selling high” doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed to be worse in the future. They’re just taking the risk out of it that he does perform worse/get hurt.

      If he has 2 more years like 2010, the Yanks would be buying low.

      • Ted Nelson

        Yeah, but the risk does exist. He’s at least as likely not to have 2 more seasons like 2010 as to have 2 more. Especially looking at his home/road splits. And that’s not mentioning health, which I can’t say anything about other than he’s almost never been both healthy and effective. He’s been healthy enough to pitch for three seasons, though, and only really effective for 1 of them.

  • pete

    I would refuse to include Banuelos or Montero, but nobody else. I would make any of the following deals, though:

    one of Betances/Sanchez/Brackman + one of Nova/Noesi + two of Nunez/Laird/Adams/Warren/Phelps/etc.

    with a three pitcher maximum if the package is headlined by Betances or Brackman.

    I think a little too much is being made of Liriano’s career ERA+, which is inflated because of his shitty post-injury 2009. I think that the injury concerns are valid, but the guy has been ace-like at several points of his career. When healthy, he’s unquestionably an excellent #2.

    • Ted Nelson

      “I think a little too much is being made of Liriano’s career ERA+, which is inflated because of his shitty post-injury 2009. I think that the injury concerns are valid, but the guy has been ace-like at several points of his career. When healthy, he’s unquestionably an excellent #2.”

      I don’t really think so. He’s been ace-like 2 seasons and crap or injured 3 seasons. 2008 was post injury and he stunk worse in 2009. I’m not a doctor and I don’t know the nature of his recovery, but simply assuming he’ll be healthy and effective from now until forever because of one good season? Especially when you look at his 2010 and career home/road ERA.

      For the right price I’d take him, but I could also see better bargains emerging as the season progresses. And unless my medical staff is really sold, I might rather pay more for a Liriano who has had another 0.5 or 1 season at 2010 level then pay less now… really depends on the exact costs we’re talking. Since they may have the only starter on the market right now… I can’t imagine the Twins are not looking to rob the Yankees for Liriano… they potentially have a ton of leverage.

  • theyankeewarrior

    One of the B’s plus outside-the-top-10 prospects at most.

  • Hurling Darvish

    Lots of interesting proposals here, but can someone compare our prospects with the packages for Greinke, Garza and Marcum. I think these recently traded pitchers form a reasonable range of prospect packages indicative of the market value for Liriano.

    Just because we a have an apparent need and rich farm system, doesn’t mean we should overpay.

  • LEOLUCCA RANDISI

    I would be leery of trading for Liriano, His arm problems scare me. But if I had to choose who we would have to trade I would trade Joba only because we have more of a hole in our rotation if the Yankees trade Joba then they could use Dellin Betances to take Joba’s place. and then next year Betances can slide nicely in to the rotation.

  • Real World

    I doubt Liriano gets dealt anytime soon. Maybe in late June or July, but not now. If he is dealt now, it will be for one of two reasons, niether of which Yankees fans will jump for joy over. 1) The Twins see him as damaged goods, and want to sell high now, cuz they fear he might be hurt by the time the summer rolls around, or 2) The Yankees blow them away with an over payment type offer they simply can’t refuse. Why else would the Twins move him before the season starts? Money isn’t an issue with his $4.3 million salary this season, and it’s not as if they have an elite starter in their rotation to fall back on. So buyer beware to some degree.

    My concerns over Liriano’s health wouldn’t preclude me from making a deal for him. I think the Yankees current need for a higher end starter make a deal something I’d want to see happen. My concern would be with what the Twins asked for in return. I don’t think Nova is going to be enough to headline a deal. I think one of the B’s would most certainly have to be involved in any package. Who I wouldn’t move would be Montero, Sanchez, and ManBan. I think Brackman or Betances I’d be open to, as well as anyone else outside of the three I mentioned. I think there’s validity to both points of view about prospect cost, and Liriano’s actual worth. His health history brings his cost down, but his ability and the scarcity of higher end pitching bring it up. So any package will have to balance those two contrasting points.

    I would do a Betances/Brackman headlined + type deal. One of those two plus a choice of Nova or Joba, with a second tier prospect or two.

    Betances or Brackman + Nova or Joba + Noesi or Nunez or Warren (or similar).

    I think that’s a fair deal. A close to ready front end of the rotation arm, an MLB contributing arm, and a quality high minors prospect (or two). The Twins would get help now, and would have a potential replacement for Liriano in Betances/Brackman.