Archive for March, 2011

Mar
22

2011 Season Preview: Jesus Montero

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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Just about everyone loves prospects, and the Yankees have a doozy on the way this season in the form of Jesus Montero. The 21-year-old’s arrival is probably going to happen a lot sooner than most of us expected thanks to Frankie Cervelli‘s fractured foot, which opened the door for Montero to start the season as Russell Martin‘s backup. Thankfully he’s proven himself at every step of the minor league ladder, finishing the 2010 season by whacking 15 homers in his final 45 Triple-A games. What the 2011 season has in store … well that’s completely up in the air.

Best Case

Buster Posey? Seriously, a rookie backstop putting up a .305/.357/.505 (.368 wOBA) batting line with 18 homers and a measly 13.5% strikeout rate like the Giants’ wunderkind did last year is as good as it gets. But that’s just the offense. Posey’s glovework behind the dish has never really been a major question, but Montero’s certainly has.

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

As far as the Yankees are concerned, the best case scenario really has little to do with Montero’s bat in 2011, it’s all about the glove. The best possible thing he could do this season is prove that he’s a Major League caliber catcher defensively, and that means the total package: blocking balls in the dirt, framing pitches, and throwing out attempted basestealers. How that is accomplished, I don’t care. Could be back in Triple-A or under the tutelage of Joe Girardi and Tony Pena at the big league level. Of course this is the best case section, so the latter is preferable.

If everything goes right this year, Montero will be a Rookie of the Year candidate and replace Martin as the starting catcher at midseason. A catcher with a .360-ish wOBA and what amounts to league average defense behind the plate is a four-win player, and the Yankees should do back flips if Montero gives them that in 2011.

Worst Case

Matt Wieters? Don’t get me wrong, I still very much believe in Wieters and his ability to become a well-above-average big league catcher, but the fact remains that the start of the guy’s career has not gone as scripted. In his year-and-a-half with the Orioles, he’s hit just .266/.328/.393 (.315 wOBA), mostly due to a .249/.319/.377 (.303 wOBA) effort in 2011. It’s been both disappointing and frustrating for Wieters and O’s fans alike, but being a young catcher in the AL East is no easy task.

The worst possible thing Montero could do this season is regress, both at the plate and in the field. His defense is already bad enough, to lose any more ground on that front would really put his future role with the team in question. First base is not an option, and designated hitter isn’t exactly the ideal spot for a 21-year-old. Montero’s bat is going to have to carry him, and luckily for him it’s very good, but if advanced pitchers start exploiting a hole in his swing or he starts squeezing sap out of the bat as a nervous rookie, it would only hurt him. If any doubt about his offensive potential starts creeping up, that’s bad news.

The worst possible thing the Yankees could do this season is sell low on Montero or trade him for anything less than a star-caliber player. No one is untouchable, but as Joe has already discussed, you’d have to be getting a stud with a few years of contractual control left to move Montero at this point in the game. Depending on your point of view, the Yanks really dodged a bullet when the Cliff Lee deal fell through last July, because there’s a very real chance they’d have lost Montero for half-a-season of the lefty.

Not quite the MFIKY stare, but close. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

What’s Likely To Happen

The recent track record of 21-year-old catchers in the big leagues is basically non-existent. Brian McCann is the most notable example, hitting .278/.345/.400 in 204 plate appearances for the Braves in 2005, though he was a midseason call-up. Joe Mauer, Dioner Navarro, and Yadier Molina are the only other 21-year-olds to get as many as 100 plate appearances in the show in the last 15 years. So yeah, Montero is about to join some exclusive company.

Although his skill set portends a middle-of-the-order bat, the Yankees don’t need Montero to be that guy just yet. Like they did with Jorge Posada over a decade ago, it’s likely that they’ll break their new toy in slowly, giving him a few starts a week behind the plate and gradually build him up to a full season workload. Prospects, even ones that rank among the very best in the game, are highly unpredictable at the Major League level early in their career. They’ll break your heart more often than not. Montero is no different, and in all likelihood he’ll take some lumps after being dropped into the thick of the AL East at his age.

I’m not going to throw out some numbers and offer a prediction of what Montero will produce this year, but I will say that I don’t expect him to come out and hit like Posey right out of the gate, nor do I think he’ll fall flat on his face. If he hits for a little bit of average and power while showing he’s not completely useless behind the plate, I’d consider it a win. If he doesn’t hit right away, who cares, he’ll go back to the minors to find his game, it happens all the time. In no way would it be a sign that he’s not cut out for the big leagues or something, not this early in his career.

Categories : Players
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The cool part about being a Yankees fan is all the history we get to witness. Last season we got to see Alex Rodriguez become just the seventh man to hit 600 homers (and the sixth to hit 610), and the year before we watched Derek Jeter march up the list of career hits as a Yankee, eventually supplanting Lou Gehrig as the leader. The 2011 season won’t be any different, with a few very big milestones on tap.

Everyone and their mother knows that Jeter is closing in on 3,000 career hits, and Ben did a fine job pinpointing when that historic hit may come. That one will surely take the cake, overshadowing any other noteworthy career accomplishments that take place. Here’s a few of those other milestones that have a chance to be reached during the 2011 season…

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

A-Rod – 630 HR & 1,900 RBI
Alex’s assault on various record books will be fun to watch in the coming years, and this season he has a chance to both tie and surpass former teammate Ken Griffey Jr.’s career total of 630 homers, moving him into sole possession of fifth place all time. He’s 17 long balls away from tying Junior. The RBI total isn’t as historic but is impressive nonetheless; just ten men have driven in 1,900 or more runs in there careers. A-Rod is just 69 away from that total, and if drives in a hundred runs on the nose, he’ll end this season in sole possession of eighth place on the all-time RBI list, right between Ty Cobb (1,938) and Jimmie Foxx (1,922). Only three men have ever driven in 2,000 runs in their careers (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, and Cap Anson), a group Alex is on pace to join a year from now.

Mariano Rivera – 600 saves
Trevor Hoffman lays claim to the most saves in baseball history, but I think everyone agrees that Rivera is best closer reliever the game has ever seen. He notched his 500th career save against the Mets in 2009, but he’ll need some serious help getting to 600 this summer: he’s 41 away. That doesn’t sound like much, but Mo has saved 40+ games in a single season just once in the last five years. With his age continually creeping up and Rafael Soriano there to vulture some save opportunities (I don’t think we’ll see Mo work three consecutive days all that often in 2011), this one might be on hold until 2012.

(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

Mark Teixeira – 300 HR & 1,000 RBI
Last season we watched Tex club his 250th career homerun on his 30th birthday, and he now sits just 25 away from that nice round number, number 300. He’s also 94 RBI away from a thousand on his career, another nice round number. There are 122 members of the 300/1,000 club, but just 41 did it before their 32nd birthday. Barring injury or a total offensive breakdown, Tex will make it 42 this year.

CC Sabathia – 170 wins
We all know that wins are a stupid way to evaluate pitchers, but I do think they are somewhat telling over the course of a career. A high win total speaks to longevity, durability, and an overall positive performance, otherwise the guy wouldn’t have kept a job. Even if you don’t agree, the players appreciate the stat and put stock in their career totals. Sabathia is still only 30 years old, but he already has more career wins (157) than Doug Drabek and Dizzy Dean, among others. If CC gets those 13 wins to bring his career total to 170, he’ll have passed guys like Ron Guidry (170, okay tied), Brett Saberhagen (167), and Sandy Koufax (165). The number of pitchers to win 170 games before their 32nd birthday in the expansion era is just 16, and 13 of them either are or will be in the Hall of Fame.

* * *

Those are the big numbers, the ones with some historical value, be it large or small. Here’s a few other miscellaneous milestones, ones that will have more value at the personal level…

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Pedro Feliciano – 500 appearances
Relievers are so damn volatile and have such short shelf lives that 500 career appearances in the big leagues really is an accomplishment. Hell, one appearance in the show is an accomplishment. Feliciano needs to get into just 41 games to reach 500, a number 253 men have reached in the last 39 years.

Nick Swisher – 200 doubles & 500 RBI
Some more nice round numbers, Swish is 15 away from the former and five away from the latter. Hooray for him.

Brett Gardner – 100 steals
Gardner made up some nice ground on this minor milestone last season, swiping 47 bags in his first full season as a big league starter. He stands 14 away from the century mark, and if he doesn’t get that in April, send him to the minors. (Kidding)

Freddy Garcia – 150 wins
Getting halfway to 300 is a pretty big accomplishment, but I think we’d all be stunned if Sweaty Freddy a) wins the necessary 17 games in 2011, and/or b) even makes 17 starts for the Yankees this summer.

Jesus Montero – first career everything
This should be fun.

Categories : Players
Comments (41)

Mark Teixeira wants to rock, and he wants Yankee fans to know that every single time he strides to the plate in Yankee Stadium this year. The Twisted Sister, in fact, has been filtering through the TV broadcasts during Spring Training as well. So I take comfort in knowing that in 2011, Mark Teixeira wants to rock just as much as he did in 2010 and 2009.

Teixeira isn’t so stuck in his ways. As he explained last year to ESPN, he has mixed it up with his tunes over the years. He used to play Jimi Hendrix’s version of “All Along the Watchtower” and added Pearl Jam’s “Alive” to his Bronx rotation in 2010. Even still, he always just wants to rock.

The Yanks’ first baseman though is a stalwart among changing tastes. As Mark Feinsand and the dear departed Fack Youk explored last May, the Yankee lineup featured an ever-changing mix of current hits and classic tracks. The Baseball Gods cursed Nick Johnson for his using Miley Cyrus during baseball games while Derek Jeter and A-Rod come to bat to their latest favorite. “This Is Why I’m Hot” gave way to “The Way I Live” for A-Rod one year. Or perhaps it was the other way around.

Inside the stadium, we used to be welcomed to the jungle by Axl Rose and Co. before every game. These days, Nelly reminds us that the Yanks have the heart of a champion, and the dulcet tones of Bobby Darin still remind us that it’s Sunday in New York. Those tracks are run by board operator Mike Bonner, but the players generally pick their own songs. It’s a process.

On Monday evening, Curtis Granderson — with some help from 12 Angry Mascots — let us into the process and showed us exactly what song we’ll be listening to this season as number 14 comes to bat. The, uh, fun is well worth the three minutes and three seconds.

Categories : Whimsy
Comments (57)

Via Jon Heyman, the Yankees have some interest in Oliver Perez and have internally discussed bringing him aboard as a cheap sign. It can’t get any cheaper; whatever team signs Perez would only have to pay him the pro-rated portion of the league minimum. Little brother in Flushing is on the hook for basically all of his $12M salary this year.

I always say there’s no harm in a minor league contract/league minimum big league contract, but I understand if it’s tough to see any upside here. Perez, even though he’s still just 29, is done, like done done. He’s been throwing 85 mph nothingballs in camp the last few weeks, and the last time his FIP even approached the league average was 2007. There’s very little to like here; at least Bartolo Colon is showing something this spring. Heyman says that Brian Cashman isn’t terribly enthused by Ollie, and let’s hope his superiors feel the same way.

Categories : Asides
Comments (45)

(Getty Images/Al Bello)

Surprise! The Yankees’ game is on the televisions tonight. MLB Network sent out a release this morning that tonight’s game against the Rays in Port Charlotte will being airing live on their fine network. The game was originally going to be broadcast on a tape delay at some Mo-awful hour of the night. Here’s the starting nine…

Brett Gardner, CF
Derek Jeter, DH
Jorge Posada, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robbie Cano, 2B
Russell Martin, C
Ramiro Pena, SS
Eduardo Nunez, LF
Justin Maxwell, RF

Available Pitchers: Bartolo Colon, Manny Banuelos, Romulo Sanchez, Steve Garrison, Eric Wordekemper, Ryan Pope, Cory Arbiso, and Pat Venditte. Pat Venditte!

Available Position Players: Austin Romine (C), Brandon Laird (1B), Kevin Russo (2B), Doug Bernier (SS), Jorge Vazquez (3B), Jordan Parraz (LF), and Melky Mesa (CF).

Again, the game can be seen on MLB Network at its scheduled start time of 7:05pm ET. Enjoy.

Comments (263)
Mar
21

March 21st Camp Notes

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Shortstop power! (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Here’s what went down in Tampa today, just over a week from Opening Day…

  • The Yankees held a staff meeting, presumably to discuss the fourth and fifth starter spots, though Ivan Nova is looking more and more like a lock. (Buster Olney)
  • Meanwhile, it’s sounding more and more likely that Brett Gardner will hit leadoff, at least early in the season. Joe and I discussed this very topic on today’s RAB Radio Show. (Jack Curry)
  • Pedro Feliciano threw 25 pitches in the bullpen and said he felt good. He’ll throw batting practice or another bullpen session on Wednesday, then hopefully get into a game on Friday or Saturday. The lefty is battling a sore triceps. (Erik Boland)
  • Joba Chamberlain will pitch in tomorrow’s game, so his strained oblique is doing well. Greg Golson took batting practice today; he’s been sidelined by some kind of rib/oblique injury. (Chad Jennings)
  • Mariano Rivera threw two uneventful innings in a minor league game and said everything felt fine. He’ll make another appearance either Wednesday or Thursday. Boring Mo updates are good Mo updates. (Boland)

Categories : Spring Training
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Mar
21

The Flip

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I thought this was pretty cool.

(via BtB)

Categories : Defense
Comments (17)

We’re all talked out on the fourth and fifth starter battles, so we move onto what is perhaps the one remaining questions of the spring. Who will bat leadoff? The Yankees have placed Gardner in that spot for the past couple of games, and the beat crew seems increasingly convinced that’s how Girardi will fill out his lineup card on March 31. Mike and I muse on the issue.

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Intro music: “Die Hard” courtesy of reader Alex Kresovich.

Categories : Podcast
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

The regular season is now just ten sleeps away, but the Yankees have yet to announce who will serve as the their fourth and fifth starters at least at the outset of the season. I think we all expect the team to go out and get someone via trade at some point during the season, but for now, these guys will have to do. Given what we’ve seen in Spring Training, not necessarily in statistical performance but how they’ve looked on the mound, let’s slap some odds on each guy’s likelihood of breaking camp with the big boys cracking the rotation …

Ivan Nova (Odds: 3-2)
Nova’s case for a rotation spot started last September, when he was serviceable (4.50 ERA, 4.36 FIP) in seven starts and did no worse than earn himself a long look in camp. He’s toying with a new slider and stands out from the pack for no other reason than because he’s not some retread. Nova’s a homegrown guy and those are easy to like, but his limited exposure in the show will work against him. That and the fact that he has two minor league options remaining, since the team could safely stash him in Triple-A and then summon him at a moment’s notice. My guess is that he starts the season in the rotation, but who am I to say?

Freddy Garcia (Odds: 5-1)
The favorite for a job coming into a camp, Garcia is having one of his trademark awful springs at a time when he really can’t afford to. Ben chronicled the problem with Garcia last night, though he has one thing on just about all the other rotation candidates: a recent history of staying on the mound. He threw 157 innings with the White Sox last year, and although they weren’t high quality innings, they were innings nonetheless. Reliability counts, even in tiny little amounts.

Bartolo Colon (Odds: 10-1)
Perhaps the surprise of Spring Training so far as been Colon, who’s come out of the gate throwing 94 four-seamers and sinking his two-seamer against both lefties and righties. He’s also featured some kind of offspeed pitch, probably a splitter but more of a junkball, that has kept hitters off balance. Remember, Colon was pitching in winter ball just a few weeks before camp opened, so he’s (theoretically) ahead of the other guys and his stuff could just be a mirage. Once he steps on the mound in meaningful games against hitters with something more than tee-times on their minds, chances are this story will take a turn for the worst. Regardless, he hasn’t hurt his chances this month.

(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Sergio Mitre (Odds: 100-1)
Beset by an oblique issue, albeit slightly, Mitre hasn’t really gotten into this competition all that much. He’s started just one game in camp with three other long-relief appearances, and part of that is a function of there being only so many starts to go around, but you’d have to think he’d be getting a longer look if he was a legit candidate (Nova, Colon, and Garcia have each thrown at least five more innings in actual games this spring). The Yankees know Sergio and what he’s capable of, so perhaps he isn’t as high priority as the other guys. Either way, he always seemed destined for that same long-reliever role he’s filled over the last year-and-a-half.

* * *

We’ve been playing the fourth and fifth starter guessing game pretty much all winter, so these not completely arbitrary odds are nothing more than a snapshot in time, a record of where the competition stands as of March 21st. Both Colon and Garcia have the ability to become free agents if they don’t make the team out of camp, and it would be surprising to see the Yankees squander assets like that so early in the season.

Given the propensity for injury (especially with two guys like that), it’s better to have more pitchers around anyway, even if they stick them in the bullpen for the time being. Plus the team will also get the first few weeks of the season to evaluate them a little bit further, against real big league hitters. Every little bit helps, even if these guys will (hopefully) be gone by July.

Categories : Pitching
Comments (112)

One issue that plagued the Yankees through the mid-00s was the lack of a quality bench. This included both the position players and the bullpen. Both units tended to be sub-par. As we covered last week in our 2011 season preview, the bullpen looks a lot better, in terms of Opening Day personnel, than it has in many years. The bench, too, has a stronger feel this year. With plenty of spare payroll, the Yankees were able to land a few chips that they haven’t sought in years past. For the first time in a long time they’ll have two quality bench bats to start the year.

Andruw Jones

(Kathy Willens/AP)

For most of the off-season, Jones and the Yankees appeared a natural match. They needed a fourth-outfielder, preferably a righty, and Jones needed a part-time destination. It took a while for the move to finally happen, and even longer for it to become official, but Jones is in a Yankee uniform for 2011. He’s not the same player that ranked among the most valuable in center field from 1998 through 2005, but he can still play a useful role.

For the past three seasons Jones has been a part-time player, either because of injury or ineffectiveness. Right knee problems completely sapped his 2008 season. In 2009 he appeared to be on the comeback trail, but fell off considerably after a hot start. Last year, with the White Sox, he started similarly hot, and while he dropped off it was not nearly as dramatic. At season’s end he had produced a .364 wOBA in 328 PA. The Yankees will gladly take that from him in 2011.

Not only can Jones provide some value with the bat, but his defense can still come in handy. He’s no longer the best-in-league center fielder, but he can fill in there if needed. More likely he’ll play left field against tough lefties, relegating either Brett Gardner or Curtis Granderson to the bench. This is a level of versatility the Yankees did not have in Marcus Thames.

Eric Chavez

(Gene J. Puskar/AP)

When the Yankees signed Eric Chavez to a minor league deal just before the start of spring training, it appeared to be an insignificant move. After all, Chavez hadn’t gotten as many as 300 plate appearances since 2007, and has been generally awful since 2006. Even then, since 2004, when he was limited to 125 games due to injury, he hasn’t measured up to the lofty standards he set in the preceding five seasons. But at age 33 there’s still potential. The Yanks, as it turns out, were right to jump on it.

In Chavez the Yankees have a player who can back up both Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. If Jorge Posada hits the DL for the fourth straight year, he and Jones can platoon at DH. He also provides a lefty off the bench, which can prove useful in late-game situations. The need for a lefty off the bench last year wasn’t great, since there weren’t many players for whom Girardi would pinch hit. But with Russell Martin on the team, and with the repeated possibility of guys such as Kevin Russo getting playing time, having Chavez’s bat in late innings will help plenty.

While spring stats mean little, Chavez has impressed during his time this March. Even when he makes outs he’s hitting the ball hard. He will certainly travel north with the team, with the hope that a part-time role will help keep him healthy and productive. It might not be striking gold, but the Yankees have done very well for minimal risk.

Ramiro Pena / Eduardo Nunez

(Kathy Willens/AP)

It just feels as though the Yankees want Nunez to fill that utility infield role. In recent games they’ve tried him in the outfield, a sign that they’re grooming him for a super utility role. It hasn’t appeared pretty, though, and chances are Nunez will stick to the infield, at least in 2011. But will he play behind Jeter, Rodriguez, and Cano, or will he take regular reps at AAA?

The Yankees are always in a tough position with the utility infield role. It doesn’t make sense to take anyone significant, because Jeter and Cano do not take days off. Even last year, through his struggles, Jeter played in 157 games. Cano played in 160. There will be some at DH, and some of those games won’t be starts. Still, it leaves possibly a dozen games, absolute max, that will require a utility infielder as a starter. That’s why Pena makes sense. His noodle bat won’t hurt too much, since his playing time is limited. If either Jeter or Cano requires a DL trip, the Yanks can recall Nunez to play full-time.

(And at third base it’s a non-issue, since Chavez is there to play when A-Rod needs days off.)

This actually figures to be the least important spot on the bench. Oftentimes that title is reserved for backup catchers. But the utility infielder on the Yanks will almost certainly get less playing time than the backup catcher. And that’s especially if a certain top prospect sticks in that role.

Jesus Montero / Francisco Cervelli

(Kathy Willens/AP)

With Cervelli on the shelf to start the season, we can assume that Montero breaks camp as the backup catcher. That will give him a quick taste of the big leagues, affording him maybe three starts each week he’s with the club. Then, when Cervelli returns the team can re-assess. If Martin is playing well they can ship Montero back to AAA and use Cervelli as the backup, which is clearly his most useful role. If Martin isn’t hitting, perhaps they’ll keep Montero around and let him split time and learn at the major league level.

It’s hard for the Yankees to go wrong in this scenario. If Martin is hitting the Yankees have a valuable starter and backup combination. Cervelli can play once a week, which suits him well. If Martin isn’t hitting, the Yankees can put a greater emphasis on Montero, whose bat is, by all accounts, ready for the majors. Either way, the Yankees will likely realize well above average production from their catcher. That’s a good thing, since it’s what they’ve grown accustomed to in the past decade with Posada behind the plate.

It has been a while since the Yankees have broken camp with a high quality bench. They face issues every year in attracting free agent reserve players, since their full-time players don’t leave much room for additional playing time. But this past off-season they took time to build a strong and versatile bench. From the way things appear now, that effort should pay off handsomely. Even if it doesn’t, there’s still room for the Yankees to build the bench the way they did in 2009. There will always be players available around the deadline.

Categories : Bench
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