Saving David Robertson’s Arm
By
The Puffy Face is catching on. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
Once Rafael Soriano signed on the dotted line of that damned contract, one thing became very clear about the 2011 Yankees: they were going to have a dynamite bullpen. At least on paper anyway, because Mo knows these things almost never work out as planned. The season is only 14 games old, but aside from two Soriano meltdowns the relief corps have performed as expected. Their 2.98 FIP is the best in the AL by nearly half-a-run (Cleveland is second at 3.42) and their 2.37 K/BB ratio trails only the White Sox (2.88). So far, so good.
Joe Girardi has proven to be a fine bullpen manager, not over-working his core guys and not burying the sixth and seventh relievers for two weeks at a time either (though I’m sure Hector Noesi disagrees). His bullpen management skills are probably overblown since his predecessor was as bad as it gets in that department, but I don’t think anyone really has a huge problem with how he works his relievers. Sure, we all disagree with an individual pitching change from time to time, that goes without saying, but as far as the big picture goes, he’s just fine.
However, as this season has started unfold, one of Girardi’s most annoying tendencies has become even more painfully obvious: the guy just loves marrying relievers to specific innings. Loves it. Makes the in-game decisions nice and easy and the post-game questions even easier. Why’d you bring that guy into the game in that spot? He’s my X inning guy. Bam, end of story, next question. Joba Chamberlain in the seventh, Soriano in the eighth, Mariano Rivera in the ninth. That’s the plan and Girardi’s sticking to it, hell or high water.
Of course, rolling out Joba, Soriano, and Mo in the late innings probably is the best course of action to win a single game, but baseball’s a marathon. To be quite frank about it, David Robertson can not be warming up in the sixth inning of every game just in case the starter gets into trouble, and then not pitch of he doesn’t. It just can’t physically be done. Those pitches thrown in the bullpen count against his arm even if they don’t show up in the box score. Sometimes Girardi will just have to go against The Formula™ and let him pitch the seventh inning to keep him fresh and spread out the workload, even if it makes him unavailable for a day or two. That’s life. I don’t know why Joba and Robertson aren’t interchangeable in that seventh inning role anyway, but that’s just me.
Now don’t get me wrong, I love the idea of having Robertson available as the fireman, using his strikeout-heavy ways to get out of a jam mid-inning. But he doesn’t need to be on call for that role every single day, especially since he’s warming up for it more often than not. Ultimately, I’m just concerned about the health of his arm and his effectiveness. If you warm up day after day like that, you’re not fresh when you finally do come into a game even if you’ve had the last four days off.
The Yankees have played an inordinate number of close games this season (already five one-run and one two-run game out of 14), so at some point the bullpen workload will start to even out. Mo and Joba won’t make the 104 appearances they’re on pace for and chances are Boone Logan will get into more than 58. Robertson has appeared in six games already, putting him on pace for right around 70, which is a perfectly reasonable number. Hopefully Girardi will cut down on all those complete game shutouts he’s been throwing in the bullpen though.
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The Mason Williams Watch
R.I.P. Robertson Hump Counter
Roberston isn’t the only guy whose arm needs to be saved. Soriano is being used too much. Mariano is being used too much. The entire bullpen is being overworked because the starting rotation isn’t giving Girardi any innings. Check out the numbers:
http://sportstatistics.blogspo.....n-new.html
I guess it’s too difficult/annoying to keep track of.
Like Mike said its not just overworked in terms of games. Robertson has warmed up in every game this season and twice in some of those. That will eventually lead to a guaranteed injury.
If it wasn’t for all the off days we have had so far, this would be an issue. If this trend continues all season, again we have an issue. But as of right now nobody has been overworked, despite appearing in a high percentage of games, because of the off days. So basically, this is something to watch, but right now not an issue.
That’s a GREAT point…
I have been a fan of Girardi’s overall bullpen management, and it goes beyond comparisons with his predecessor. It’s been a strength. Yet as you noted, sometimes the individual matchups/decisions do make me scratch my head.
I do know that, at least according to Girardi’s own words, the Yankees not only track appearances and pitches thrown, but how many times a pitcher warms up, counting those pitches as real as the ones thrown in a game. That’s why I’ve been surprised by Robertson’s seemingly daily warm-ups. Girardi is clearly aware of this, so it must not have reached a level of concern…yet. As you noted, perhaps it will all even out. Not sure, though. The Yankees starting rotation beyond CC is not built to go deep into games.
I do know that, at least according to Girardi’s own words, the Yankees not only track appearances and pitches thrown, but how many times a pitcher warms up, counting those pitches as real as the ones thrown in a game.
source?
Don’t have it. I read it last year. Girardi was talking about why he uses certain pitchers on certain days and how the Yankees track in-game appearances, but also bullpen warm-ups when calculating a pitcher’s workload. Not really surprising. The “formula” behind the usage would be more interesting to see, which we never will.
I don’t have a source, but I remember hearing that as well.
I remember specifically hearing that if a pitcher was fully warmed up, it was considered the same as if he had appeared in the game. Assuming that’s true, that should have made Robertson unavailable for some of the games unless he was still relatively early in his warm up.
Thinking about this, I wonder if Robertson wants/needs more time to warm up and so starts getting ready earlier and throws at less than 100% for some time before going to closer to 100% to get fully ready.
yea me too..
I can back that up. I remember hearing that last year too.
You are all wrong because I don’t recall hearing that.
big fan of Girardi’s bullpen mgmt
“because Mo knows these things almost never work out as planned”
hahaha priceless.
We are currently last in IP with 126. Looking at that stat this morning kind of makes me nervous.
Yanks have had 2 rainouts also which drags that down
The two Hughes starts as well. CC, Garcia, AJ have all gone at least 5 or 6 in every start, I believe, pure memory. Nova, of course, we all know has issues multiple times through the line-up, hopefully it’s just a SSS blip, like Canos RISP issue two years ago. I’m very happy the pitchers in the rotation aren’t needed to throw CG to be in 1st place. We could see more Logan, Robertson, Noesi and the other AAA arm that hurled 3 perfect innings as the leads get bigger.
That 126 is total IP, so it doesn’t matter whether those are pitched by the bullpen or the starters. It’s simply a factor of number of games, how many went to extra innings (and how many innings) and how many road games were played where you needed to pitch the bottom of the 9th.
“Makes the in-game decisions nice and easy and the post-game questions even easier. Why’d you bring that guy into the game in that spot? He’s my X inning guy. Bam, end of story, next question.”
I think that is a very insightful line. Gregg Easterbrook, on TMQ would make similar points about NFL head coaches and why they don’t go for it on 4th down more. Keeps the blame on the players, and off the coach. But if more and more in the media and fans start getting on coaches for sticking to a rigid, out dated relief pitcher model, then maybe things will change.
Just another half baked thought, maybe the Yanks have just decided to get everything they can out of Robertson, not expecting him to ever really be a long term piece of the team. Like the Mets did with Feliciano.
Other than thought, agreed with the article. Well done.
I agree with the post. Just curious about something though… How important is it for a pitcher to know their role and have that consistency? In other words, does the psychological aspect of knowing that “I’m the 8th inning guy (or whatever)” provide the pitcher some sort of confidence and comfort (routine) that could help him be successful over the course of the season or does it really not matter at all. I don’t know the answer, but my hunch is that while it’s probably nice for the pitcher, the numbers would be pretty much consistent regardless of the inning.
Although, I know I’ve heard in the past that Mo isn’t nearly as good in non save situations, but is that just what commentators say or are there stats to back that up?
It can be a self fulfilling prophecy though. If you are brought up and learned in a system that taught relief pitchers are assigned roles, then you would probably be uncomfortable all of sudden changing your mindset to a be ready when you are called upon approach. But the more you start to change, the more relief pitcher mindsets can start to change.
One problem is that many relief pitchers are former starters. And starter are all about routine. The transition is probably easier is they still have a routine and a set inning, rather than be thrown into a be ready whenever role. Who knows. Just throwing ideas out there.
yep
“if you can change, and i can change…”
I mean, talent should be talent regardless of which part of game you are playing, but I think baseball players and most everyone else in the world too usually perform better when their schedules/routines are consistent. Intellectually, it seems like a waste to have a reliever assigned to a particular inning with little to no flexibility, but in terms of the human aspect of the game these guys might just perform better knowing ahead of time what their role will be. The truth is that I have no idea and you all probably shouldn’t be reading this because this post really contributes nothing to your lives!
And by “this post really contributes nothing to your lives!” I was talking about mine and not Mike’s. His contributes more.
Not much more, if any more at all, ha.
true very true – good points
I still think the yanks should trade for someone at the deadline…unless off course we’re fine with overusing the pen every start made by nova and hughes
I think it’s almost a guarantee that the Yanks will someone(s) new in the rotation by the time the deadline passes.
your right
Stop it! You’re scaring the children.
ugh
I asked Will Carroll on twitter if warm up pitches hurt a reliever’s arm. He said not really, but “dry humps” do, though. I wonder if there’s been any study into the amount of “dry humps” before there is a noticeable effect.
4
I think youve gotta have sort of a rotating schedule based on workload. If one of the regular 7th 8th or 9th inning guys is a little taxed, you can still play around and have an entirely decent pen.
1st things 1st, send down Noesi. Hes been up for a week, he hasnt gotten any work. Scower the waiver wire and try to find a lefty to take all the pressure off Logans shoulders, they need another lefty down there. Marte and Feliciano are not going to be back for a long time, if at all. The seventh inning belongs to Joba, thats fine. If hes taxed and needs a day off let Robertson pitch. Soriano, if hes taxed than let Joba take the 8th. If Mos taxed let Soriano take the 9th. Theres a lot of flexibility there with the bullpen which Girardi hasnt really utilized. I also like what weve seen from Pendleton, that’d be really great if he could fill that Aceves, Ramiro Mendoza, jack of all trades kind of reliever. Than you’ve got Logan and hopefully another lefty to mix against the right guys. I like this bullpen alot but its gunna burn out quickly if Girardi gets too caught up in just Joba Soriano and Mo..
I like your points.. Good Job
“Girardi’s most annoying tendencies has become even more painfully obvious: the guy just loves marrying relievers to specific innings. Loves it”
I feel that if a ball player knows his exact role he will be better “mentally” prepared. How do you measure it – I dont know. I do know that if I was a player – knowing when I will come into a game would help alleviate uncertainty & in turn reduce pressure.
I totally agree and I dont have any problem with bullpen guys having “roles” but you cant use them in that “role” everyday. Realisticly throughout a 5 game span, the Yankees will be behind a run or up by 1-3 in like 4 of those games. So are you gunna use Joba Soriano Mo 4 days in a row? No you cant do that, you sprinkle in Robertson to eliviate some of the workload off the main guys. I would have to go back to that game Soriano blew as a main example, seeing as Robertson hadn’t gotten any work. Soriano was working like a mad man and the Yankees were up by 4. Robertson coming into the 8th in that spot seemed like the reasonable move to take some of the workload off Soriano, we gotta lucky with that rain delay the next day too. The bullpen would of been shot for that game..
Do we have to make a complaint about soriano’s contract every time he’s mentioned? It’s not going to change and it’s not a big deal.
Soriano will help us take it all this year.
I honestly think he is a good addition to the team, I was excited when we signed him, and I think he’s improved our bullpen. It’s not like we signed some crap reliever that will do nothing but bring down the team.
Mike, I agree with you about Drob’s role. He’s great as a fireman and he’d be solid in the 7th inning if he needs to get work in or Joba can’t pitch. Also IDK if this is just last game making me think this, but doesn’t Joba not do well on back to back days?
In his career, he has a .618 OPS against with 0 days rest, .557 with 1 day, .537 with 2 days, and .742 with 3 days (ERA shows a similar trend). All small sample sizes, but still interesting.
Agree 100% on all counts, Mike — including that following Torre makes Girardi’s bullpen management look good almost all by itself. And hopefully Girardi gets your message and cuts back on the pace with Soriano and Joba soon.
You pointed out a couple of days ago how Joba had pitched three times in four days in his last appearance. Maybe that even accounted for his wildness. For whatever it’s worth, the only appearance this year in which he walked two batters was another one in which he had pitched the day before, too. I’m not suggesting that it accounts for all of his walks or all of his wildness, but maybe it’s related.
We don’t know who will be traded but you can bet some of the prospect in the Yankee farm system will be gone come June/July.
Montero should be part of a deal for King Felix or Josh Johnson only.
YOU CAN”T SAY THIS
However, as this season has started unfold, one of Girardi’s most annoying tendencies has become even more painfully obvious: the guy just loves marrying relievers to specific innings. Loves it. Makes the in-game decisions nice and easy and the post-game questions even easier. Why’d you bring that guy into the game in that spot? He’s my X inning guy. Bam, end of story, next question
AND SAY HE IS FINE — THERE is a HUGE Gulf between St Joe and SMART — Jumpy Joe is way short of Smart; His Explanation of using Soriano Back to Back blowing CC 4 run lead and the game is CLASSIC DUMB — that he believes what he said is STUPID –
Hopefully he will learn – that the best role is to manage the greatest risk to the game with your best Pitcher for the situation — Girardi has the staff to do it and get rid of the LaRussa bred lunacy — but like unnecessary bunting and base stealing the new book says a reliever per inning — shorten the game; unlikely a guy like Girardi would author a new chapter