May
09

Fan Confidence Poll: May 9th, 2011

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Record Last Week: 3-4 (31 RS, 30 RA)
Season Record: 19-13 (170 RS, 132 RA, 20-12 pythag. record), one game up in the loss column
Opponents This Week: Monday OFF, vs. Royals (three games, Tue. to Thurs.), vs. Red Sox (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the (new and improved!) Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls
  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

    8; lineup’s fine w/me, bullpen’s doing fine overall, just not too pumped about the rotation.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      …just not too pumped about the rotation.

      Patience, young padawan.

      http://chisoxcollector.com/ima....._10x20.jpg

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

        All your Floyd are belong to us.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          It’s like an all-you-can-eat buffet line.

          Take your pick.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          And did you notice that Edwin Jackson is the only one who didn’t sign that piece of memorabilia?

          It’s almost as if he knows he won’t be on the South Side long enough for his signature to have nostalgic value. Hmmmmm…

          #foreshadowing

          • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

            I’ve never liked him.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              I liked him as a prospect, then cooled on him as he demonstrated a propensity for walking the ballpark, Diasuke-style.

              I’m coming back around on him, though; he seems to be figuring things out as he moves into his late 20s (which isn’t all that surprising, really). He’s becoming a smarter pitcher and using his power slider more down in the zone to generate groundballs and attacking the zone to limit walks.

              He’s becoming a very solid mid-rotation guy.

      • Chris

        They couldn’t get Jackson to sign the picture too?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          See above.

      • Ted Nelson

        Sox definitely seem like the place to look. I do wish that the Twins or at least Tigers were in the Indians position right now, though. As great a feel-good story as the Indians are, it’s pretty likely that the Twins and/or White Sox get on a run at some point while the Tribe cool off… If at the deadline the White Sox are X games back of the Tribe Kenny Williams has to feel better about that than being X games back of the Twins or Tigers.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    Curtis Granderson is good at baseball.

    • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

      But Austin Jackson had like three hits the other day!!

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        And a homer yesterday I believe.

        I want Jackson to do well, because it will boost the Yankees reputation when it comes to trading prospects. To quote Tommy Boy…

        Because they know all they sold ya was a guaranteed piece of shit. That’s all it is, isn’t it? Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your customer’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from me.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          That. I bear no ill will towards Jackson. I liked him as a Yankee prospect and continue to like him as a Tiger, and want him to be successful (except on days where the Tigers are playing the Yankees).

          But the notion some Yankee fans hold that Cashman is teh stoopid for trading Jackson for Granderson because Jackson is better than Granderson… yeah, that’s just not accurate.

          Grandy >>>>>>>>> Jackson, IPK, and Coke.

          It’s like the Carmelo deal; sure, all those various parts may cumulatively out-WAR Curtis, but it’s all about marginal value and replacement cost. We have plenty of other pieces who can replicate what IPK and Coke did, so it’s worth using them to upgrade from Jackson to Granderson, who is a stud.

          • Kosmo

            For the most part 2010 was a bust for Granderson.Jackson had a consistently fine 2010 rookie season.
            Granderson does strikeout a lot too.Also Jackson is in his 2nd season while Granderson has been around awhile.
            When Granderson can sustain what he´s doing for the entire season then we can talk about meritorious achievements.Granderson has had a good run for a few weeks but he could easily go into a tail spin and hit his usual .250-.260.
            I doubt Granderson will sustain a .280 average against Lefties.Opposing lefty pitchers will make adjustments.
            No one said Jackson is better but he has an opportunity to be a very fine ballplayer.
            It´s all in line with Yankee philosophy of win now at any cost.
            IPK is another story.Better than Hughes? Me thinks.
            Really now it´s so much water under the bridge.

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

              For the most part 2010 was a bust for Granderson.Jackson had a consistently fine 2010 rookie season.

              Granderson 2010 bWAR: 2.5
              Jackson 2010 bWAR: 2.1

              Oh and WAR is a counting stat too. Granderson had those totals in 528 PA and Jackson, 675.

              • Ted Nelson

                I like the trade, but I don’t think it’s obvious to the point where one can’t argue against it.

                fWAR: 3.7 to 3.7… plus the Yankees threw in 2.4 fWAR from IPK and 1.1 fWAR from Coke. Jackson’s .333 wOBA last season wasn’t far behind Granderson’s .346 and he stole 15 more bases.

                Granderson is really hot right now. Maybe he’s put it back together, but maybe he can’t sustain this. After a season in which he go out fWARed by 3.5 by that package, now is a convenient time to say “I told you so.”

                As far as Carmelo… OVERRATED. Sure he’s better than Danilo or WC… but the NBA is a whole different ballgame with the salary cap. You have to compare not Melo to Danilo and WC and a 1st, but Melo and a minimum salary guy to those 3 because you can pay all three of those guys and maybe more for the same amount as Melo.
                The Knicks are devoting a huge chunk of their salary cap to Carmelo, who is very good but not amazing offensively and is downright bad defensively. Add in that Amare is another poor defender they’ve invested heavily in… and they’re going to need Dwight Howard to win a title.
                There are also style of play issues in basketball that don’t come into play in baseball. Each player is more isolated in baseball. Besides batting order and subs, Jeter taking his at bat doesn’t stop A-Rod from taking his at bat a few spots later. Melo dribbling around and taking off-balance jack-ass shots has a direct opportunity cost of the offense not generating a better shot. At lest he still puts the ball in at a good rate overall, but if he cut out the jack-ass shots it would probably make him more effective as well as the offense. It’s something like if Jorge insisted on trying to steal 20 bases a year and got thrown out 15-17 times.
                I can’t particularly fault the Knicks for their strategy, but I don’t think they’ll contend until they add a Dwight Howard type of impact defender who is also another offensive star.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  ou have to compare not Melo to Danilo and WC and a 1st, but Melo and a minimum salary guy to those 3 because you can pay all three of those guys and maybe more for the same amount as Melo.

                  Boversimplified. Especially since Chandler is a free agent who you can’t afford to resign since he’ll go from valuable and underpaid to cap-cripplingly overpaid this winter.

                  And the argument that they will need to still add a third great player, like Howard or Paul, well, nobody was arguing that the swap for Melo would make them a title contender instantly. It’s just a step in the process. We all know there’s more pieces of the puzzle that need to be added, but swapping Gallo/Chandler/Felton/Mozgov/a pick for Anthony AND Billups (who serves as a valuable trade chip for Howard or Paul), that’s a steal of a deal you make every time.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    Nope.

                    Even as free agents I don’t think it’ll cost you more to sign Chandler, Danilo, and a first than Melo. Melo is making 21.6 mill per for 3 years… that would mean WC, Danilo, and the pick would have to average $7 mill per for the next 3 years. They won’t.

                    Chandler is a pretty generic wing player. I doubt he gets more than $8 mill per at the very best. I doubt he gets more than $7 mill per, though. Neither is cap crippling.
                    Plus he’s a restricted FA, so Denver can see what the market is. Teams rarely like to make offers to RFAs anyway, so there’s a good chance Denver can keep him on a 1 year tender if he wants more than the market is offering.
                    Chandler’s PER in Denver was 11.6 (15 is average) and he only scored 12.5 PPG… not in line for a big pay day. The conventional wisdom will be that D’Antoni inflated his per game stats (partially true). Plus athletic wings like him are easy to come by. Most teams already have a Wilson Chandler, and few that don’t are going to spend big for one.

                    “And the argument that they will need to still add a third great player, like Howard or Paul, well, nobody was arguing that the swap for Melo would make them a title contender instantly.”

                    My point was about the cap implications… with Melo making over $21.6 and not being worth that much, it makes it harder to get someone who actually is worth that much. The NBA is a different ballgame than the un-capped MLB.
                    Don’t call a comment “boversimplified” because you didn’t understand it. That pisses me off.

                    “swapping Gallo/Chandler/Felton/Mozgov/a pick for Anthony AND Billups (who serves as a valuable trade chip for Howard or Paul), that’s a steal of a deal you make every time.”

                    No. It’s not a steal. It’s a solid deal, like the Gradnerson deal. It’s not the Swisher deal, though. That’s a steal. There’s almost no downside and lots of upside. There is a big downside with both the deals we’re talking about. Among other things, the Knicks could have played a better game of poker and had Melo this offseason without giving up anything. Instead they gave up young, cheap players who aren’t much worse than Melo in WC and Danilo. A solid PG in Felton (who I wasn’t sad to see go, but solid still). They gave up picks. Notice that the Nuggets actually got better after this deal. There was a downside.

                    Again, we don’t have to be homers and ignore the negatives or downsides of deals.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      In retrospect, I’m sorry I brought up the tangent of the Carmelo deal.

                      Withdrawn.

                      (I’m not ceding the argument to you, mind you, I still think I’m right, just withdrawing it as a massive tangent that will hijack the thread.)

                    • YanksFan

                      I don’t think it’s a given Melo would have come here over the summer. I think he would have taken the Nets b/c he wanted the Money & NY. Nets would have gotten that for him.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      Carmelo is overrated and it wasn’t a home-run deal. Period. There’s no debate. I know Billups got hurt, but they got swept by the Celtics. Swept. They finished 42-40. 42-40.

                      He’s not a first team All-NBA player. He’s not good at defense, and that’s fully 1/2 the game. He’s an average passer. He’s a high-volume medium-efficiency scorer. (I’ve seen studies where they eliminate his jack-ass off balance shots early-ish in the shot clock, and his scoring efficiency is more in-line with the games best scorers… he shoots himself in the foot with his jack-ass off-balance selfish shots… again it’s honestly the equivalent of Jorge trying to steal bases because he feels like it… totally selfish and detrimental to the team.) Yet, the Knicks traded for him and are paying him as if he’s one of the best players in the game. He’s not. Basketball is a different game than MLB between the cap and the importance of individual players. Paying a half-way star as if he’s a super star kills NBA teams.

                      I was a HUGE, HUGE, HUGE Knicks fan, and I honestly can’t get into them anymore because I find Carmelo almost unbearable to watch. Why would a mediocre 3-pt shooter be taking fade-away 3-pters early in the clock with a hand in his face? In what universe is that ok? He’s a rich-man’s Jamal Crawford.

                      I don’t fault them for the deal, but I certainly don’t think it’s obvious that you do that deal instead of exercising some patience and lining yourself up for a run at Howard and/or Paul… real All-NBA players. (Paul’s size and knees make Howard a lot more preferable I would say, though…) They could have traded WC for a young undervalued player and/or pick(s). Built through the draft and more sound moves. It wasn’t an either or scenario. They had other avenues open to them. Melo might have signed with them as a free agent anyway (I know he was pushing to sign under the current CBA… but perhaps the Knicks could have called his bluff).

                      I can certainly understand why they made the deal, and despite all my bitching about Carmelo (who I find really frustrating) I’m not even necessarily against the deal. I probably might have sucked it up and made it too. I just don’t think anyone can call it a home run deal in good conscious if they have a good understanding of basketball and advanced basketball statistics.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      Again, I’m happy to have this convo with you on another forum, but I can’t in good conscience continue with this thread hijack that I accidentally started.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      “I don’t think it’s a given Melo would have come here over the summer.”

                      It’s definitely not a given. I think he would have taken the Knicks over the Nets (though of course I don’t know), but it’s a question of whether he would have even hit FA. I think his camp out-pockered the Knicks into believing he was going to sign an extension where ever he was trading after already scaring away all other teams by making it known he would not sign an extension there. He suckered the Knicks, in my opinion, and they fell for it in part out of desperation and in part because they still felt it was the best move even though they knew there was a good chance they had just been suckered.

                      Point was just that there were other avenues open to them and they gave up quite a bit. Not an obvious home run deal to me. There was a real trade-off. With, for example, the Nick Swisher deal you had low-downside and high-upside. That’s quite rare in a trade, but when it happens it’s a home run. Most other trades where both sides see (or should reasonably be expected to see) a fairly comparative potential upside are not home runs. They’re just trades.

                      To me the Granderson and Melo deals were both just trades. Not necessarily home runs. I do think it’s more likely that Granderson proves me wrong than Melo at this point, though Melo certainly has the ability to prove me wrong if he stops dicking around and forcing so many poor shots.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      I’m not a fan of the authoritarian commenting guidelines, but knickerblogger.net is a good Knicks’ blog. I don’t go there anymore, though, because I’ve really lost interest in the Knicks since the whole Melo soap-opera. I watched the playoff loses and he’s a great basketball player, but I find it really hard to root for an overrated guy who constantly shoots his team in the foot by dribbling around and taking ridiculous shots like a jack-ass. Would love to see him play within himself and reach his potential.

                    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                      I’m not trying to be snippy or like a mod here, maybe the OT thread here if you want to continue the discussion?

                • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                  I wasn’t arguing that WE WON THE TRADE!!! or I-Told-You-So-ing. I was arguing against the “2010 was mostly a bust for Granderson, while AJax had a very nice rookie year all around” statement. While AJax did have a very good rookie year, saying Granderson was a bust most of last year is foolish.

                  Also, what in the world does this have to do with the Knicks? Did I bring up Carmelo? I’m confused.

                  • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                    (Also, re: the “maybe he can’t sustain this,” no kidding. He’s still a pretty darn good player.)

                  • Ted Nelson

                    Fair points.

                    The Knicks reference was to tjcs above your comment.

                • NJYankeeFan

                  I agree with your Knicks assessment but in the likely event they can’t get Howard, I think adding CP3 or Deron Williams and a new head coach who actually teaches defense would make the Knicks a contender too.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    I’m not sure it’s a matter of teaching Amare and Melo to be good defenders, I just think they don’t have the physical tools and will to be all that good. They’re not Lee Nailon on defense, though, and with 3 good defenders around them could get by. The Suns were the consistently around league average defensively in per possession terms, as high as #13. Given that Nash is a defensive sieve and Amare is also one at C… that’s a solid defensive effort for their personnel.

                    I think CP3 is one of the best players in the game, and absolutely think adding him to the Knicks with Melo and Amare and some other at least decent players would make them a contender.
                    My problem with CP3 is just that sub-6’0″ players almost never age well historically (he’s skilled enough that he might age relatively well… but still might fall off a lot from where he is when he hits about 30 and loses quickness), plus he has a serious knee problem. I’ve heard he has no cartilage in his knees, though I’m not sure if that’s the case. If it is his career might not last much longer.
                    With a Deron I think they’d contend more seriously, but I’m not sure they’d ever get over the hill (and I’m ok with a ’90s style perennial contender that never wins really… as long as you’re getting deep into the playoffs every season).
                    Howard I think could make them a really strong contender, and likely to get one or more rings. Who knows what will happen, but at this point I can definitely see him leaving Orlando. They’ve a first round playoff loser now, his main supporting cast is not getting younger, and the youth is solid but lacking much upside.

                    I like D’Antoni alright. I’ve had my issues with him, but I think he’s a good coach. I think a lot of the defensive criticism is misplaced. I’d like to see him hire a “defensive coordinator” in the Tom Thibideau for Riley/JVG/Rivers or JVG for Riley vein instead of using his brother in the role. But ultimately he makes some personnel decisions and has just generally had personnel that necessarily limit his team’s defensive ability in favor of offense. Nash was old and a weak defender in Phoenix… no coach could have changed that, but some coaches might have limited his minutes for a Marcus Banks or some other defender and ultimately hurt the team. I think by and large D’Antoni has done a solid job defensively given the personnel he’s had

                    Team defense and offense, by the way, should be measured on a per possession level rather than a per game or per minute level. Every time one team’s possession ends, the other team’s necessarily begins. Therefore, a faster paced team should be expected to give up/score more points per game/minute. Possessions are a way to equalize it. Check out baseketball-reference or 82games.com for more… Or the book Basketball On Paper or one of Hollinger’s prospectuses (prospecti?).

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              For the most part 2010 was a bust for Granderson.Jackson had a consistently fine 2010 rookie season.

              Granderson, 2010: 528 PA, .247/.324/.468, .346 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 1+ ADR, 3.7 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR
              Jackson, 2010: 675 PA, .293/.345/.400, .333 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 10+ ADR, 3.7 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR

              For the most part, Jackson and Granderson’s 2010 seasons were pretty identical. Granderson’s probably was a little bit better, all things considered. Jackson got hits and got on base a little bit more, but Granderson compensated for that with much more power. And he outWAR’d Jackson in both variations of that counting stat despite 150 fewer plate appearances (and despite being injured for probably 100 more), which is telling.

              When Granderson can sustain what he´s doing for the entire season then we can talk about meritorious achievements.

              Agreed. When Jackson can sustain a .300 BA and a .400 OBP without crazy fluky high BABIP, we can talk about him being a valuable offensive player. As of yet, he’s not.

              Granderson has had a good run for a few weeks but he could easily go into a tail spin and hit his usual .250-.260.

              And Jackson had a good run last April, but then hit a tail spin and stopped getting seeing-eye singles and started striking out at a Reynoldsian pace. He has yet to recover.

              I doubt Granderson will sustain a .280 average against Lefties.

              I doubt it too, but whatever plateau Granderson eventually falls to against lefties will undoubtedly be a far higher production level than Jackson, who looks utterly lost against southpaws and has his entire career. Until AJax finds a Kevin Long to fix his mechanics against lefties, he’ll likely continue to be a disastrophe against them. Curtis no longer is.

              No one said Jackson is better

              Yes, they did. Go check the tape.

              but he has an opportunity to be a very fine ballplayer.

              He does. He doesn’t look like he has much of an opportunity to be a finer ballplayer than Curtis Granderson does, though.

              It´s all in line with Yankee philosophy of win now at any cost.

              It’s mainly more in line with the Yankee philosophy of use minor league talent to get normally-ungettable major league middle of the order talents in their prime, but this might be semantics.

              IPK is another story.Better than Hughes? Me thinks.

              Only because of the shoulder injury that wasn’t on our radar a month ago. Before that, it’s Hughes by a landslide, and “landslide” might be underselling it. IPK’s a valuable pitcher; Hughes was (is?) a potential ace. Not the same stratosphere.

              Really now it´s so much water under the bridge.

              We can agree on that… I think.

              • Ted Nelson

                “Before that, it’s Hughes by a landslide, and “landslide” might be underselling it.”

                No. Just no. Hughes wasn’t good last season. It was definitely not him by a landslide.

                I just don’t understand why people have to resort to blatant lies to prove Granderson is the greatest player ever, AJax is the worst player ever, and this was the greatest trade ever… Just take it for what it was. A good, sound trade. This season has vindicated it, but it needed to be vindicated after the way it played out last season. It went really poorly for the Yankees last season. Besides the AJax/Granderson wash, it also basically meant that Javy was in the rotation instead of IPK and Vizcaino was in the Braves system instead of the Yankees’ or the Yankees had one lefty reliever instead of two. It was sound decision making at the time, but that doesn’t mean it went well in 2010. It didn’t. It also doesn’t mean that 24 year old AJax is going to be a .277 wOBA player for the rest of his career, anymore than it means Granderson will be a .429 wOBA player for the rest of his career. It doesn’t mean that just because he’s pitching in the AL West what IPK is doing “doesn’t count.” Do the Giants pitching and WS ring “not count?” Does Haren actually pitching better in the AL than NL West “not count.” Why do we have to bend reality to prove things we don’t actually have to (and can’t even) prove?

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  No. Just no. Hughes wasn’t good last season. It was definitely not him by a landslide.

                  And still, not-good Hughes from last season is still a far better pitching prospect than IPK, and you know it. Pre-shoulder injury, would you have traded Hughes for IPK straight up at any points in their young professional careers? Of course you wouldn’t have.

                  It was most definitely Hughes by a landslide, even with all his bad second half starts and homers and flaws. Phil Hughes on his worst day was still a much better prospect than Ian Kennedy on his best day. (Pre-injury.)

                  Besides the AJax/Granderson wash, it also basically meant that Javy was in the rotation instead of IPK and Vizcaino was in the Braves system instead of the Yankees’ or the Yankees had one lefty reliever instead of two.

                  The deal for Javy had little to nothing to do with trading away IPK in the Granderson deal. Javy was brought in to be the 4th starter. IPK wouldn’t have been considered for anything north of the 6th starter. If we don’t do the Granderson deal, we still trade for Javy Vazquez.

                  It also doesn’t mean that 24 year old AJax is going to be a .277 wOBA player for the rest of his career, anymore than it means Granderson will be a .429 wOBA player for the rest of his career.

                  And I never said those things. What I said is, whatever baseline production levels both of those players eventually settle into, Granderson’s level will be higher than Jackson’s level. That’s my assertion, based on all the evidence we have.

                  It doesn’t mean that just because he’s pitching in the AL West what IPK is doing “doesn’t count.”

                  Another assertion that I did not make. I specifically said that IPK was a valuable pitcher. His value, however, was not so great that it wasn’t worth sacrificing for the significant marginal upgrade from Jackson to Granderson.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    “And still, not-good Hughes from last season is still a far better pitching prospect than IPK”

                    No, I disagree. I think it was pretty close to a toss-up. Certainly neither was a far better prospect. Yankees fans want to believe Hughes was still far better because he was better at a younger age. Entering 2011 I thought it was a toss up.

                    “The deal for Javy had little to nothing to do with trading away IPK in the Granderson deal.”

                    Read the comment more carefully. I said or… they could have not made that trade OR OR OR OR O.R. O-R had kept their lefty Phillip Coke and replaced Javy with IPK when he was below replacement for the season. OR.

                    “What I said is, whatever baseline production levels both of those players eventually settle into, Granderson’s level will be higher than Jackson’s level.”

                    The point is that the baselines will probably not be this far apart, and that’s where IPK and Coke come into the picture. While you want more bang for your buck and will trade 3 lesser players for 1 greater player… there’s also a tipping point at which you’ll take the 3 over the 1 better player. That’s my point. You seem totally blind to it, and my opinion is that it’s because you’re being a huge homer and defensive on this trade. If Granderson is a 4 fplayer 6 years older than Jackson and IPK who are both 2.5-3 fWAR players and Coke is a solid 1-1.5 fWAR reliever/starter… it’s not that clear who won the deal. It’ll depend on the exact production. You might be able to make a reasonable argument on either side, though. That’s my point… it doesn’t have to be the greatest no-brainer deal ever or the worst deal ever.

                    “Another assertion that I did not make.”

                    It was an implication you made. IPK pitched better than Hughes… but he’s a worse prospect? That would seem to imply either an AL_NL bias (which I think exists, but would like to quantify before throwing it around) or a velocity bias. Either way I don’t think it’s obvious.

                    • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                      Certainly neither was a far better prospect.

                      http://www.baseballamerica.com.....26983.html

                      Hughes was Baseball America’s #4 prospect pre-2007. Kennedy never got close to that.

                      Now at some point prospects have to perform. Prospects don’t work out all the time, and some unheralded guys end up being great. And Kennedy was a fine prospect. But he was not in Hughes’ league as a prospect.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      And the part I think you’re leaving out was the fungibility of guys like IPK and Coke.

                      Even if IPK becomes a 2.5 WAR guy as a beckend starter (which I doubt) and Coke a 1.5 WAR guy as a lefty swingman (which I also doubt), guys like that are totally worth sacrificing for the upgrade from 2.5 WAR AJax to 4 WAR Granderson, because guys like IPK and Coke are (fairly) easily replaced internally with other guys in our system like Nova, Noesi, Warren, Brackman, Pendleton, Phelps, etc. etc.

                      Sure, we probably go through a slight growing pain phase picking the wheat from the chaff, but the depth of interchangeable arms we have in the system combined with the limited ceilings for guys like IPK and Coke make the marginal upgrade definitely worth it.

                      You can’t simply add together the WAR and say that Granderson’s 4 WAR is less than Jackson+Coke+IPK, because it ignores the reality that Coke and IPK are being instantly replaced in the hierarchy and 40-man by in-house replacements who can eventually approximate their value, and it ignores the scarcity of guys capable of producing a 4 WAR all by themselves at one position.

                      If Coke is replaced by a 1WAR reliever (like, say, Pedro Feliciano would theoretically have been) and IPK is replaced by a 2 WAR starter (like, say, Ivan Nova), then the losses of IPK and Coke are nullified and the calculus is nothing but Jackson v. Granderson.

                      —–

                      That’s the point I was trying to make with the Carmelo tangent (which, again, I don’t want us to get sidetracked by), which is that it makes sense to trade 5 quarters for a dollar, because you only have so many slots to put your money in. If you’re replacing one of those quarters for a dollar in one of those slots, the other five slots are now open for you to find more quarters (which is far easier than finding a dollar).

                      One great player can easily outweigh several good ones (even at a cumulative production loss). It’s about replacement cost and opportunity cost.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      Sorry:

                      “…it makes sense to trade 5 quarters for a dollar, because you only have so many slots to put your money in. If you’re replacing one of those quarters for a dollar in one of those slots, the other five four slots are now open for you to find more quarters (which is far easier than finding a dollar).”

                      My bad.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      bexarama,

                      You’re taking my quote out of context. Tommie repeatedly said that Hughes was STILL a better “prospect” than IPK. Entering 2011 I would not have taken Hughes over IPK in a land-slide. If I would have taken Hughes, it would not have been a land-slide. Pre-2007 was 4 years ago. Ruben Rivera was also a top prospect… doesn’t mean I’d have taken him over a good MLB player who was a lesser prospect at 20 years old.

                      Tommie,

                      “guys like that are totally worth sacrificing for the upgrade from 2.5 WAR AJax to 4 WAR Granderson”

                      Again, it depends on the details. You’re taking the low-ends on my IPK and AJax guesstimates. These are young players who certainly could improve.

                      AJax already topped the high-end of my guesstimate last season at 23… hard to say he’ll never do it again or even that he can’t improve and do it consistently.

                      IPK is already a 2.5 fWAR starter. Get used to it. He was 2.4 fWAR last season and is at 1.1 fWAR (3.09 FIP) about 20% of the way through this season.

                      Coke was over 1 fWAR last season and is already at 0.4 this season.

                      I do not think that 2.5+ fWAR pitchers under team control are all that fungible. The Yankees had one pitcher better than that last season. One. You might trade the Gradnerson-AJax upgrade given the Yankees offense for a IPK-Javy/AJ in 2010 upgrade.

                      “the limited ceilings for guys like IPK”

                      You are the one limiting his ceiling. Not me. You are expressing your opinion and projections as fact.

                      “You can’t simply add together the WAR and say that Granderson’s 4 WAR is less than Jackson+Coke+IPK, because it ignores the reality that Coke and IPK are being instantly replaced in the hierarchy and 40-man by in-house replacements who can eventually approximate their value”

                      Pretty sure that I never disagreed with the first part. You can’t just add up the fWAR and ignore the roster spots. I’ve made that point too. You aren’t disagreeing with me there. I am saying that there is a tipping point at which you don’t trade a 3 WAR starter when all you can really expect from the filler you’re talking about is like 1-2 WAR and you have 5 starting spots plus a solid lefty reliever, if all you’re getting is a 1 WAR upgrade in CF. That point does exist. There is a debate over where exactly it is. That’s my point. You continue to insist that there is no way that those 3 could EVER be as valuable combined as Granderson is alone… even though we past that point in 2010. The point does exist. I don’t see why you keep treating your opinion as fact. Get over yourself.

                      You cannot, however, just say that David Phelps or Lance Pendleton or anyone else is going to be a solid mid-rotation starter. Odds are against it. Those guys are back-end prospects. IPK is already a mid-rotation guy, even if you choose to ignore reality there.

                      “it makes sense to trade 5 quarters for a dollar, because you only have so many slots to put your money in.”

                      AGAIN… You are acting like your player valuations are the only thing that matters and that you are 100% right. They are just your opinion. Reasonable people can disagree. I personally think Melo is overrated and that Danilo at 22 is likely to be about as good as Melo by the time he is 26. So, I think that was a TERRIBLE example. I also think you are underselling IPK and Coke because of your own beliefs that have not come to fruition in reality. AJax is hard to value because he was so good last season and so awful this season. Almost definitely his long-run production is somewhere in the middle… but where?

                      “One great player can easily outweigh several good ones (even at a cumulative production loss). It’s about replacement cost and opportunity cost.”

                      The problem is that you are acting like I am stupid and don’t understand your point. I do understand. In theory you are right. The question is whether in reality these situations match your theoretical construct. In the Melo case I think reality clearly doesn’t match. Melo is 26 and not that much better than a 22 year old Danilo…

                      So, it comes down to the exact value of the coins these teams were trading-out and trading-in. There are not necessarily quarters and dollars.

                      At some point, if you are theoretically replacing 5 75 cent coins with 1 dollar… you’re getting screwed. That point does exist where the opportunity cost of acquiring a Melo/Granderson is not worth it. That’s what I’m saying. I’m saying that I think what both the Yankees and Knicks gave up is close enough in value to what they got (even considering the 5 quarters for 1 dollar logic) that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to debate. I don’t think there’s room to debate that for 2010 alone, the Yankees got screwed. It’s not about 2010 alone, of course, but that should at least open your eyes to the fact that this was not a slam-dunk, home-run, no-brainer deal. This was not trading quarters for a dollar.

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

              Also

              No one said Jackson is better

              Oh yeah they did:
              http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/.....-jon-27359

              • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

                And saying that he’ll hit .250-.260 with zero context – I don’t really think of him as a high OBP guy at all, but he hits for a lot of power – is selling him short.

              • Kosmo

                Bexarama,

                I meant in the context of this blog.Sorry

        • MannyGeee

          Tommy likey…. Tommy want Wingy!!!!

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Fun Fact #1: .281/.343/.813 is Granderson’s vital line this year. Against lefties.

        Fun Fact #2: Since the beginning of the 2010 season through yesterday, only 6 men have amassed greater than 200 strikeouts. One of those men, Austin Jackson, has 6 homers. The other 5 (Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, and Matt Kemp) have combined to hit 173 homers.

        • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

          I wonder if I’d winked after my comment about AJax’s 3 hits the ensuing discussion still would’ve happened?

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    On the high side of 8, I really like our catching defensively and offensively with Martin playing most of the time its above average. As we saw yesterday Francisco holds his own and runs well.

    Look after 16 games straight without a dayoff even the 98 Yankees were going have a couple bad ones, defensively or offensively.

    If we can continue to get starting pitching which keeps us in the games than the prospects are good for a banner year.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Look after 16 games straight without a dayoff even the 98 Yankees were going have a couple bad ones, defensively or offensively.

      That.

      Fun Fact #3: The 1998 Yankees had some 3-4 weeks, like June 15-21 (1-2 @BAL, 2-2 @CLE) and July 13-19 (1-1 @CLE, 1-1 @DET, 1-2 @TOR), and they had a stretch where they went 6-10 (August 30th through September 16th).

      It happens, even to the best of teams.

      • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

        Weren’t the 1998 Yankees actually kind of blah to start September, while playing the Devil Rays and stuff (this was back when they were terrible too), before they rattled off like eight in a row? Not that I think this team is the 1998 Yankees, but the point remains. Even to the best of teams, even against blah opponents.

        • tom

          The ’98 team’s high water mark was when it hit 92-30. It was on a pace for over 120 wins. They then went into a 12-16 trough (largely playing the Angels, which I believe marked the beginning of the “we just can’t beat that team” legend), culminating in an embarrassing, dreary loss to doormat Tampa Bay and a Joe Torre clubhouse explosion. They recovered for a 10-2 finish and the final 114-48 record.

          • Jorge

            They were 92-30. Now that there’s some distance there, that is just amazing. We lived to see it, folks.

            • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

              I’ll never forget the wonderful feeling of inevitability that team generated while you watched the games. You just were never really nervous watching the games because you “knew” that come the 7-8-9th innings we’d score the 1-10 runs needed to win the game. No problem.

            • http://youcantpredictbaseball.wordpress.com bexarama

              Geez. I wish I wasn’t 11/12 at the time so I could’ve really appreciated it.

              • RL

                I wish I wasn’t 11/12 at the time …

                Now your just bragging. I was … well, I was certainly old enought to have enjoyed it (after years of not enjoying them in the latter 60′s, early 70′s, most of the 80′s, parts of the 90′s …)

  • bakekrukow412

    If the Yankees expect me to believe all Hughes has is “shoulder inflammation” then they’ve got another thing coming to them. This smells like Joba all over again.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      “Deader arm”?

      He did vastly exceed his recent innings high last year, you know.

      • bakekrukow412

        I just find it strange that a short while ago the Yankees were quoted as being “very concerned” that there may be something wrong with Hughes, and now all of a sudden it’s just shoulder inflammation. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has permanently damaged his shoulder like Joba did, and they just aren’t going to say anything because they want his perceived value to remain high. I’ve got a little voice in my head warning me not to expect anything great from Hughes anymore.

        • Jorge

          People say lots of stuff sometimes. If you start listening to every twist and turn, you’ll drive yourself crazy and Phil Hughes’s arm will be in a cave on the Afghan/Paskistan border somewhere and back starring in “Two and a Half Men.”

          There’s very little comparison between Phil and Joba.

          I always assume Joba smells like a cross between a 7-11 and a loose 19 year-old.

    • handtius

      what does joba smell like?

      • Bob Stone

        Funny.

      • bakekrukow412

        Lie…… disappointment……. a blown out shoulder and permanently decreased velocity that they won’t admit to until a few years after the fact….strawberries?

        • handtius

          i take it you don’t like strawberries

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Little chocolate donuts?

        • handtius

          i think this is the closest one, but i think it’s more like powdered donuts…just have a feeling, like if you shake joba, powder will fall off.

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          That’s what fueled Belushi to his decathlon victory, correct?

      • pat

        Strippers and Crown

        • Andy in Sunny Daytona

          …and Bingo was his name-o.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Strippers and Crown Mad Dog 20/20

          Fixed.

          • handtius

            hurricane 40s

      • MannyGeee

        maple syrup? Jim Beam?? McNuggets???

        This just writes itself…

        • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

          Mmm. Off to get a 20 pack and large fries. Damn you.

    • Big Apple

      the Yanks are lying….Hughes is having a horrible bout with IBS but they don’t want to embarrass him too much so they said shoulder injury.

  • Jorge

    Still at an 8. Concerned as to the bargain-basement finds which have been contributing turning back into pumpkins, and the potential minor league replacements needing a bit more time to marinate.

    Not as concerned about Phil Hughes once I look at Madison Baumgardner’s line…..and Mat Latos’s…..and Brett Cecil’s…..I guess this must be par for the course in these times.

    I appreciated Derek Jeter telling the world to lick his nuts this weekend. Just in time for Mother’s Day.

    I’m at an 8 because they’re the Yankees, and they will always find a way to make it happen. Enjoy the ride.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Not as concerned about Phil Hughes once I look at Madison Baumgardner’s line…..and Mat Latos’s…..and Brett Cecil’s…..I guess this must be par for the course in these times.

      Getting a talented young hurler through the long journey from elite prospect to actual ML ace is a long and arduous journey. People need to remember that.

      The Lincecums and Verlanders are the exception to the rule.

      • Jorge

        So what you’re saying is that Phil Hughes should just smoke a ton of weed.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          It couldn’t hurt.

          • RL

            Maybe it’ll make him forget that his shoulder hurts. Medical marijuna is legal in several states. Just takes a prescription.

      • Big Apple

        unfortunately, many people don’t understand that…Rome wasn’t built in a day…

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Rome wasn’t built in a day…

          Chief Wiggum: All right, you scrawny beanpoles: becoming a cop is *not* something that happens overnight. It takes one solid weekend of training to get that badge.
          Man: Forget about the badge! When do we get the freakin’ guns?
          Chief Wiggum: Hey, I told you, you don’t get your gun until you tell me your name.
          Man: I’ve have it up to here with your “rules”!
          [leaves]

  • MannyGeee

    SOLID SOLID 7, and I will feel better if they can continue to hit the goddam ball against better pitchers than Eppley or Rhodes…

  • Big Apple

    from a 8 to a 7….Arod doesn’t look good right now and I’m hoping its not an injury.

    Losing Chavez kind of stinks and hopefully he’ll return and stay healthy for the season.

    And I really, really hope that Colon’s last start is quickly forgotton…

  • RL

    Still at an 8. I was thinking of going to an 11 after Jeter’s performance, but then reality set back in.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Bright side: Two homers from Jeets is fantastic.
      Dark side: It’s Texas. Those stats don’t really count for much.

      • Jim S

        Whining about how Jeter’s HR’s are “fake” because it was Texas >>>>>>>>> whining about how Jeter can’t even hit in Texas.

      • Accent Shallow

        Bright side: Texas is Texas, but it’s not Coors Field circa 1999

    • Big Apple

      what would you pick after Cervelli’s slam? that’s bigger than Jeter’s!

      • RL

        Not sure what was more unexpected, Cervelli’s salm or Jeter’s 2 HRs in consecutive at bats and 4-6 performance. Pretty much a draw. And besides, Jeter’s still an every-day player. If he keeps this up … :-)

  • YanksFan

    Still a 9. Love that the team is in first & has not played consistent ball nor have they had their hot streak yet.

    All the bitching about the offense & people don’t want to understand that they are still top 3 in MLB. There is that much lack of offense around the leagues.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      All the bitching about the offense & people don’t want to understand that they are still top 3 in MLB. There is that much lack of offense around the leagues.

      Yeah, people are seriously taking for granted how rare it is to put up 5+ runs every night.

      This isn’t the late ’90s anymore.

  • NJYankeeFan

    7.
    Maybe I’m waiting for the sky to start falling but I can’t help thinking that every week that passes is one week closer to the time when Colon and Garcia turn back to pumpkins. AJ was also great early last year before he fell apart and with Hughes a huge question mark and no one from the farms really distinguishing themselves yet, starting pitching could become a big problem before you know it.