2011 Draft: Baseball America’s Post-Draft Analysis
ByWe’ve been recapping the Yankees’ 2011 draft haul all day (part one, part two), but now let’s get the experts’ opinions. Baseball America posted their recaps today (subs. req’d), and here’s a snippet of what they have to say about the Yankees: “[Dante Bichette Jr.] was a defensible choice at 51, but after that the Yankees seemed to reach for a lot of players and a team with the Yankees’ resources should be doing the exact opposite … The team did get some interesting upside later in the draft with Sacramento CC outfielder Justin James (13th round) and North Carolina high school righthander Rookie Davis (14th) and the team will likely need some late-round surprises to make up for uninspiring single-digit selections.”
That seems to be the general consensus, and pretty much the same conclusion I came to earlier today. Also make sure you check out LoHud for a recap of scouting director Damon Oppenheimer’s conference call this morning. Apparently the Yankees were still trying to get a look at third rounder Jordan Cote as recently as this past Saturday. Blame the weather.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Who cares, all these unlucky bastards are going to blow their arms out anyway.
#depressed
The yankees always get late round surpises.Yet they should have gotten RHP Jorge Lopez who fell to 70th overall to the Brewers.Wasted there first pick again.
This comment is…of…i dont know…at least 4 years early.
Should be “oh” not “of”
Didn’t like the Bichette, Jr. pick as I feel he’s too one-dimensional & he would have been around later in the draft if we were that hot for him. I like our 2nd & 3rd picks a lot, (Bill?) Stafford & (Jim Coates?) Cote, & also like 4-6, Duran, Bird, & Cave, but would have preferred a more athletic pick w/7 other than “Bubba” Jones, & I’m sort of intrigued by a bunch of the later picks like #12 Cody Grice, #17 Mathew Troupe, #20 Daniel Camarena. Still learning more about some of the others.
Watching the Red Sox draft four times before we even went once (& the Rays 13 times to our first three) was just torture. I really liked the Red Sox first four guys & I think Swihart reminds me of a really young Chipper Jones & envy their pick of southpaw Henry Owens. Didn’t think it possible to dislike Randy Levine more than I did but I now do.
I would be careful putting too much emphasis on athleticism or scouts’ take that a player “can’t”/”won’t” do this or that. Certainly some emphasis on both, but you’d miss a lot of current MLB players through over-reliance on the former and the latter is a lot of projection/speculation… often on marginal concerns.
There are just way too many counter-examples to say that “unathletic” mashers can’t be good and great MLB players.
In terms of players who “can’t” do this or that… Apparently Cano didn’t get much hype as an IFA because of his straight-line sprint speed… teams literally thought he was too slow to be a 2B and MLB player apparently. Never mind that his bat developed to where it would play at a corner anyway, I rarely see a 2B need to spring 90 feet or something to make a play. If a guy’s bat will play in MLB, he’s going to find a spot and make whoever drafted him look good.
Red Sox are always lauded for their drafting. If Youkilis didn’t move (and look) like Shrek or Sloth, though, he’s probably a first round pick and they never get a shot to take him. Plenty of arbitrage opportunities in guys who can hit, but have athleticism or position concerns. If Pujols could have played up the middle or hadn’t played somewhat off-the-radar… he’s probably not there in the 13th round. They’re very unlikely to get a Youkilis or Pujols, but the Yankees took a lot of guys with somewhat similar profiles… guys they think can hit who have positional and athleticism concerns and play in areas that may be under-scouted.
I don’t know if they do it at an above-average rate, but a lot of their big successes have fit this mold: Posada (slow 2B with power), Cano (slow 2B with a bat), Mariano (small Panamanian), Mendoza (also Panama), Manny and Ace (Mexicans, one small and one old-ish for an IFA), Joba (injury), Gardner (sort of opposite… tons of athleticism, no pop)… these were all skilled guys who had major red flags and/or played off the radar where other teams might not have seen them. Outside of the consensus top guys (and the Yankees did pass on a few of those… maybe because of signability, maybe cause they disagreed with the consensus), I think in a draft you are best off looking for arbitrage opportunities of guys that other teams (and journalists) have incorrectly undervalued. I mean “player x was a consensus 7th rounder or 10th rounder, so they should have taken him”… well 7th and 10th rounders work out like 1% of the time, so what is the consensus worth? Why is it better to take a guy who is kinda good all-around and the consensus thinks is ok but not actually that great, instead of someone with a real stand-out skill or two with red flags you think are largely bogus?
In an industry where everyone is wrong far, far, far, far more often than they are right… it’s hard to take such definitive statements as having any meaning whatsoever. Yankees might have blown it, but they might have been “reaching” just like the Orioles were on Markakis or the Royals were on Butler or the Brewers were on Fielder on and on and on until infinity. I mean if you had drafted Pujols in the first or second round you’d have been laughed off the planet… yet you’d have made a great move. I’m much more interested in their analysis of the prospects’ strengths, weaknesses, etc. than their final word on whether it was a good or bad draft before any of the players has even signed.
Well said Mr. Nelson. This can apply to all sports!
I think we just have to realize the fact that the Red Sox will always have a top notch farm. They always seem to have top prospects to bring up or trade.
Alakazaam-ionrfamtion found, problem solved, thanks!