Jun
05
2011 Draft: Keith Law’s Latest Top 100 Prospects
ByTomorrow’s the big day, so Keith Law posted his updated list of the top 100 draft prospects this weekend (Insider req’d). UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole will go first overall and occupies the top spot, unsurprisingly. The 51st overall player in the rankings is Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson, a guy with four pitches known more for his pitchability than his raw stuff. The Yankees don’t want the 51st best talent in the draft though, they’re hoping a top 20 guys falls, as we all should.
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I think they’ll pick a Top 20 bat that slips to the 51st pick. They can target signability prep arms in the later rounds as they’ve done since Damon’s been running the draft.
And then the Yanks will sign some random player for slot money.
(Pray that I am joking)
They’ve done that once in six years. Calm down.
Even if they do, it’s not the end of the world. You know they’ll spend overall.
Am I the only one that thinks Tampa will use some of their picks to take players that want high bonuses with no intention of signing them. They can’t possible sign every one they select with those 12 picks so it only makes sense to cock block Yankees and Red Sox from getting signability concern guys.
I think they’d rather draft and sign guys they know can help their own system. They have an almost unheard of opportunity to add talent in an extremely deep draft. I doubt they’ll spend those high picks simply keeping guys away from the Yanks and Sox.
Agreed.
They wouldn’t be wasting the picks, though. They’d be transferring them to 2012. It’s going to be really expensive to sign all the guys even at slot. Taking a few signability guys so that you have more leverage with each and can sign one or two relatively cheap vs. their asking price might be a good use of a few picks.
With all those picks they don’t have to use one strategy across the board. They can take several easy signs and still take several hard signs.
They do have an unheard of opportunity, and it’s not at all clear that only taking guys they can and will sign is the right way to approach it. You might end up leaving a lot of talent on the board that way and blowing the opportunity by taking quantity over quality. Taking some easy signs, some harder signs, and moving some picks to 2012 might be the best approach. You could also argue for spreading your risk across more cheap picks, but it’s not clear that’s the way to go… especially because they can still take a bunch of cheap guys and still take a few expensive guys not necessarily set on signing all of them.
I don’t think they’ll pick a guy with the intention of “pushing” the pick to 2012. Most baseball writers who talk to scouts and FO’s, including the Rays’ FO, say they have no intention of punting picks.
Again, you don’t have to punt on a pick not to sign a guy. The Yankees didn’t punt on their pick by taking Cole, they just couldn’t sign him.
I have no idea what the Rays will do. What I’m saying is that they have a ton of picks, and instead of drafting all guys they expect to sign easily they can take a chance on some signability guys. They have a ton of picks, but they’re not early. If a HS guy falls because teams believe he will go to college… the Rays are in a better position than other teams to take a shot. With a guy like Purke who they can wait to see pitch in Cape Cod… the Rays are in a better position to take a shot.
If some of those guys take hardlines in negotiations, the Rays can play them off each other and just walk away from the ones they don’t feel offer value at their bonus demands.
And in doing so they are effectively blocking guys from the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and the rest of MLB. That’s probably not their primary objective, but there will be one less guy available for other teams every time they pick. If they are not punting on their picks, they will be taking top talents. Punting on picks can be as much about taking crappy players you can sign as guys you don’t expect to sign.
And even if the Rays have every intention of drafting guys they will not even make an offer to just so that the Yankees can’t take them… they can’t come out and say that. I doubt they are, but if they do they’re not going to tell people that was their plan.
Agree with dennis.
Tampa may not have enough money to pay MLB players $20 million per season, but they do have the resources to sign quality draft picks. If they’re smart, which they are, they have allocated a higher amount of budget to sign players in this draft. This is how they build their competitive teams. They will draft players they want to sign. They will make moves to block the Yankees or the Sox.
Sorry. I meant to write I “agree with pat.”
“They will draft players they want to sign. They will make moves to block the Yankees or the Sox.”
I think you’re agreeing with both pat and dennis there… and I agree with that. They have enough picks to do a few different things. They can take the guys they like in this draft, and if they can’t sign them all they’ll get picks next season.
The Rays are pretty good at evaluating players. I would think that if they stick to their board, and ignore what they think other teams want, they will a) get players they want and b) block other teams as a by-product.
I think it is unethical to draft players just to punt a pick (in terms of a kid’s future). Everyone assumed that was the case with the Dodgers last year and he signed, correct?
Zach Lee. Correct.
He signed because the Dodgers ponied up.
If the player is demanding over slot money and the team doesn’t want to meet his demands… I don’t think that’s unethical. No more unethical than a prospect not signing because he doesn’t like a team’s offer. It goes both ways.
Can anyone tell me where B.A. Vollmuth was ranked? And if anything else was written about him.
Can’t tell you about that, but other reports have him as a guy with contact problems but average-to-good power potential. Won’t be able to cut it at SS but should be able to move to 3B or another corner spot and play solid defense.
Hopefully they don’t take some crappy kid just because he’s local again. They couldn’t taken Stetson Allie for fuck sake
Somewhat unrelated post…but maybe somebody else feels my pain.
Why on earth does ESPN shove NFL draft news down my throat untill I want to throw something at my TV every time I see Mel Kiper Jr but if I want to read ANYTHING about the MLB draft I have to pay extra. Sure it’s really cheap to become an insider but this is the internet damn it! It’s supposed to be free.
These websites need to stop posting links to ESPN insider for prospect information. Either post the entire list or don’t post anything.
Why come to these sites when ESPN is the first site mentioned? Kinda pointless to visit these sites for an ESPN link when we can go directly to ESPN.