Considering Capps
ByAs it stands, the Minnesota Twins’ odds of making the postseason currently stand around 1%. If you’re an astute student of baseball, mathematics and/or statistics, you might deduce that this is not good. Despite winning three games in a row, the Twins still sit at 20-37, 13.5 games back of the division leading Indians. Their fall from grace has been surprising. Virtually everything that could go wrong has gone wrong for this team. You want the litany? I’ll give you the litany. Their best pitcher, Francisco Liriano, has been horrific all year and has shoulder soreness now; their best player, Joe Mauer, has been on the disabled list for weeks; their star first baseman, Justin Morneau, has struggled out of the gate after missing half of 2010 with a concussion; their former closer, Joe Nathan, isn’t quite right after undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring and lost his job as closer; Delmon Young is hurt; several key prospects have struggled or gotten hurt; they demoted one of their best pitchers to the bullpen after some not-so-private feuding, and he is currently injured; their new second baseman had his leg broken on a slide by Nick Swisher; Jason Kubel is hurt; Jim Thome is hurt; it’s already the first week in June, and they just won their first series.
It’s been bad. Really, at this point, they should be looking to unload some of their assets and rebuild. While some have focused on some of their starting pitchers as trade targets, it might be interesting to key in on reliever Matt Capps as a trade target.
Capps was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the seventh round of the 2002 draft and was a starter until 2005 when the Pirates converted him to the bullpen. Once he became a reliever he moved quickly through Pittsburgh’s system, going from A ball all the way to Triple A in one season, and even earning a September callup to the Pirates that year. Capps pitched a full year out of the Pirates pen in 2006, as a 22 year old, and did quite well. Rather than go through his performance year by year since then, I’ve created a little graph listing some relevant statistics that paint a good picture of the type of pitcher he is. These numbers are current through Friday.
Instead of focusing on fluctuations year to year, it’s probably wiser to take all 369.2 innings he’s thrown as a whole. He has a decent ERA and it’s backed up by strong DIPS numbers. He strikes out around 7 batters per 9 innings, not exactly elite for a reliever, but he doesn’t hand out many free passes at all. His K/BB ratio is excellent. Despite his 2010 mark he isn’t exactly a ground ball pitcher, a trait that would play well in Minnesota but perhaps less well in New York. Capps hasn’t had the best year so far in 2011. He’s blown a few games and his strikeout rate has dipped below 6. But it’s also worth noting that it’s only been 25 innings of work, hardly a meaningful sample size, and that his strand rate is well below what would be reasonable to expect going forward.
Capps is signed this year for $7.15 million and he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. By the time he’s traded he won’t cost the acquiring team more than a few million dollars in salary. The Yankees should kick the tires on him and consider bringing him aboard if the price isn’t too steep. Capps wouldn’t necessarily need to handle high leverage spots – Robertson and Chamberlain are doing fantastically – but he’d be the perfect type of reliever to soak up some of those lower-leverage appearances in which we see Robertson so frequently. Girardi has been good about keeping his guys fresh for October, but it would be nice to give him another quality arm to use in the dog days of the summer.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Minnesota wants a top flight catching prospect in return.
/obligatory’d
They’d want a package that matches the high quality they received from the Mets for Santana. Nothing less.
Three top 100 BA prospects and a fast rising 2nd round pick starter who rose to AAA in his first full pro season?
I wasn’t being sarcastic. The Yankees’ rumored offer was Hughes, Melky, Hilligoss, and Marquez. Bill Smith got a lot of flack on this board and others for taking the Mets’ package over the Yankees’ and the Red Sox. Like Jack Z in Seattle, not everyone is blinded by the hype the Yankees’ assign to their prospects.
That was still better than what the Twins netted from the Santana trade with the Mets, even in retrospect.
At the time of the trade, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra trumped Hughes and Marquez in upside. And Carlos Gomez had more potential than Melky. Finally, Mitch Hilligoss was and is exactly what he is…a non-prospect. That things didn’y work out as they were projected is just the nature of the prospect game.
I agree that Yankee fans tend to underrate the package and ignorantly rip the Twins to this day, but I guess the counter-argument is that at the time Hughes trumped all the other prospects in ceiling combined in a lot of people’s minds. If you’re going to demand the #4 prospect in baseball in a trade package the other pieces are going to be weaker. The Twins took a good quantity and good quality package over a poor quantity but great quality package.
So I agree the Twins weren’t crazy, but I feel like you’re going too far to the other extreme and saying they made the obvious move. Taking an elite prospect like Hughes instead of a few good prospects is a move reasonable people can disagree on. I agree that others are being unreasonable in their assessment of the trade, but at the same time I feel like you’re doing the same to the other extreme.
I don’t think it’s the Yankees who assign the hype. Every team hypes their own prospects; both because they probably really believe in them to have acquired them and because it behooves them to raise their trade value. Independent third parties produce the rankings we’re all looking at.
I’m still a little confused by the reference, though, as Capps is a middling reliever while Santana was one of the best starters in baseball.
I am commenting indirectly on the assumption a lot of fans have that the Yankees can simply throw a couple of prospects willy-nilly at another team without regard to a) that team’s actual needs and b)the actual consensus value of the prospects in question. As in the Cliff Lee deal, Justin Smoak was more highly coveted by Seattle not because he was a better hitting prospect than Montero but because he could actually play a defensive position and was more major-league ready. Capps is a middling reliever, yes, but he has value…value that a team like the Twins can’t arbitrarily squander.
Yeah, agreed in general.
Are we really looking to add a reliever at the deadline though? I guess possibly, but I don’t see it this year. I still think the most important target is a starting pitcher that we like for not only the rest of this year, but possibly the next couple years as well. Also maybe another bat, before we add a reliever.
Just my guess.
Although, our key bullpen guys have been getting a lot of use. I guess we could use reinforcements everywhere.
I’m with you. I’d rather just run through our candidates in the minors before making any moves. Noesi and others should be more than sufficient to fill out the bullpen.
Romine and Nova for Liriano and Capps.
Twins get salary relief and youth at positions of need.
Yankees get major league pitching depth and chance to recoup picks down the road.
Why would the Yankees trade two of their top young players for a pitcher with a history of arm trouble who can’t last past the 5th inning most of the time and a reliever that they don’t need?
The entire premise of the article that they should pursue another reliever is mind boggling.
Nova is not exactly a top young player. I’d do that trade in a heartbeat.
Liriano is a mess and rumors (for what they’re worth) had the Yankees only willing to give up Nova and Pena for him coming off a 6 WAR season. I could see trying to buy low on Liriano, but then you’d have to actually believe he would get better long-term. I have my doubts. Rumors (again, for what they’re worth) don’t have the Yankees thinking of Liriano as a long-term project for understandable reasons–with his performance, injury, attitude, and work ethic questions.
Capps makes sense as a throw in to a deal like that or in a deal where Minni isn’t asking for too much, but I don’t place a huge value on him.
I would want clarity on Liriano’s shoulder; otherwise, the Yankees be giving up a solid catching prospect and a young arm for a couple months of an okay relief pitcher and a damaged starter.
Yeah, I’d certainly want complete medicals, but from a value perspective that’d be a great trade for the Yankees if Liriano’s shoulder isn’t a total disaster.
Agreed. If Liriano can come back this is an easy trade to make. The issue, of course, is Liriano has had a history of arm issues (elbow) and now there is a shoulder issue, which is even more concerning. When healthy, Liriano has shown flashes of being a front-end starter, but more times than not he’s been lesser than hoped.
Willing to take some risk. Just not sure how much without knowledge of the medicals.
While you’re waiting for clarity, I’d grab him under your nose. Worst case: Liriano is done for the year, but is still a very talented pitcher who is also arb eligible for 2012. Even worse case, he joins Nova and Romine as non-contributing Yankees.
Best case: After the trade, his shoulder is given sufficient rest, afterwhich he proceeds to pitch as well as he’s capable of.
High reward, and I’d say, with Romine and Nova, low risk.
Liriano has been bad as often as very good in his MLB career. The reward is there, but the probability of getting it is low. It’s not a worst case that he wouldn’t contribute more than Nova in the short-term, it’s very, very likely.
I don’t think Romine is exactly low risk. He’s a pretty valuable trade piece as a potential starter at a premium position. There are other starters besides Liriano you could try to get with a Romine/Nova package. Liriano might have the highest upside of those options, but he’d probably also be the riskiest of them.
Not saying I would never trade those guys to take the risk on Liriano, just saying that it’s not at all obvious. The Yankees apparently (according to rumors…) were offering Nova and Pena for Liriano before the season. His value was higher then, and the Yankees were rumored to be offering less.
And if you were my GM, I’d fire you unless you requested medicals!
Any team trading for Liriano will need those.
Serioiusly, the worst case is not the worst case you presented. Worst case is the Yankees trade away two young players that could be traded separately or packaged together and/or with others that can bring back a player who can legitamately help the Yankees. Nova is hardly great, but he’s been servicable as the man slated to be our #5. Liriano might not even provide that until we know more about his shoulder. Romine is a valuable commodity because he’s a catcher. He might even be the Yankees starting catcher. Let’s not assume anything about Martin, who hasn’t exactly been great since April. Montero is not a catcher.
Anyway, I’m all for Liriano, but the team needs to know more before it throws two prospects away.
My opinion is based entirely on the premise that Nova and Romine aren’t worth much at all, so why not grab a guy who may be.
If healthy, Liriano is a top 15 starter. To me (definitely not to MIN, I’d wager. Unless, of course, MIN knows he’s shot), he is worth much more than 1) a starter who has shown nothing, mL or ML 2) a potential C, who has trouble both offensively and defensively.
I suspect Liriano will not be traded anytime soon. Too much talent, too much risk.
I have never thought much of Matt Capps work so I wouldn’t be interested. I’m even less interested when I hear what the Twins want. I would pass.
I believe they need some reinforcements in the bullpen, especially considering Girardi is adamant about not over-using Joba and Robertson. Because it is highly unlikely that AJ, Nova, Colon, and Garcia will be averaging much over 6 innings a start, if that. With Soriano out indefinitely, Girardi needs 1 or 2 reliable middle relief arms. But I think the answers are within the Yankees’ system at AAA and AA. No need to trade. However, if I were Cash, I’d inquire about re-acquiring Kerry Wood. The Cubs are going absolutely nowhere.
Woods would be a much better target. If they’re talking to the Cubs I’d kick the tires on Ryan Demster too.
Instead of trading for Capps, I’d rather see them give someone like Kontos or especially Tim Norton a chance.
I’ve been waiting long enough for somebody to say something about this: call up Pat Venditte!
Ditto on Norton
At least move him up to AAA. He’s been pitching like Steve Nebraska for Trenton.
Another reliever’s career stats over 407 innings
407 IP, ERA 3.58, FIP 3.99, 5.92 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 47.7% GB rate
Looks kind of comparable, no? less K/BB but much better GB rate. Guess who that is? Luis Ayala.
I don’t mind adding depth but the improvement over Ayala is really quite minimal and that’s the roster spot at stake here since Capps is a 1 inning reliever.
Would much rather look into someone like Jose Mijares. Horrible stats but if you look at his splits, he’s been awesome vs LH hitters, worth looking into.
Good call on Mijares. Would be willing to give up a minor prospect for him. Maybe Laird or Corban Joseph.
Ayala was a solid reliever early in his career, but hasn’t been the same since arm surgery. I wouldn’t base much on seventeen innings this year. He could collapse at any time, and likely will. The Yankees should ride him as long as they can, but I wouldn’t plan on him being there at the end.
I wouldn’t just assume that every player who has been injured before can’t regain health, just like I agree that we shouldn’t assume 17 IP means he’s totally reliable going forward.
No disagreement. I just wouldn’t count on it, so I don’t have an issue if the Yankees try and add depth to the pen. Just depends at what price, and also what internal options we have.
I should add that if the Yankees add another arm to displace Nova, it’s possible that Nova would be a good bullpen arm. Good velocity, does well first time through the order, basically has two pitches. Sounds like a reliever!
Yeah, getting a starter (at good trade value) and moving Nova to the pen could have the best results… cause then you have that extra starting depth with Nova as the 6th starter… maybe 7th with Hughes.
Why is there not more talk of Aaron Harang? That is a pitcher worth looking at, hes been solid over a long stretch, and is really pitching well right now, i’d look hard at Harang.. ALso, what about a Casey Blake/Kuroda deal from LA? Blake could spell Alex, and hes been in the outifeld on occasion and at 1st, and could DH against lefties and PH against Lefties, and Kuroda is flat out,a solid pitcher, who maybe we re-sign for a 2yr deal after the season…
Is there anyway, we could pry Shawn Marcum away from Milwaukee? What about Randy Wolf? Wolfs signed through 2013, and would give MIL some payroll relief, and possibly help them re-sign Prince in the off season…These are guys i’m hoping for
Casy Blake
Kuroda
Gavin Floyd
Aaron Harang
Jason Kubel
Joel hannrahan- this is a guy for the pen we should look at…
Kosuke Fukodome- maybe a solid bat off the bench, spot start type..
Carlos Zambrano- hes expensive, but solid, and i think hes past his crazienes
Hunter Pence- This guy would be my 1st guy i’d go for, and offer alot to get!
I don’t like a guy with a 6 K/9 rate and a 40 percent GB rate in the AL East.
i just like results, i don’t care if its pitching to contact or not, if u can pitch, u can pitch… I don’t need a 10k 1bb 2er game, over a 4k 3bb 2er game… It does not matter to me, as long as the jobs done..
You have to consider the context in which he’s getting the job done, though. He’s pitching in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. His ERA is almost 5 on the road this season. He’s not getting the job done in Yankee Stadium right now, and there’s a lot of reason to believe he wouldn’t. Likewise someone like Nova or AJ or Garcia would probably benefit from pitching in Petco for about 1/2 their starts.
For that matter, Target Field is almost as much as a graveyard for offense so any Twins pitcher you consider would have to be evaluated on that basis as well.
Agreed. I think Liriano benefits from Target overall. Perhaps as a lefty at the Stadium he’s also benefit, though.
Capps is in his first season with the Twins, so really small samples. He is getting killed on the road, though.
For all that the Mets are being killed for building Citi Field and killing any power they have (or might get — Bay), the Twins seems to be going unscathed for building Target Field at its present specs.
Real baseball isn’t fantasy baseball. Harang would get destroyed in the AL East, especially in Yankee Stadium.
Hunter Pence isn’t worth the package it’d take to get him.
I’ll pass on Capps. Delmon Young please! I think the Yankees have fooling themselves if they think Brett Gardner is worthy of being a starting left fielder.
Why is Delmon Young more worthy than Brett Gardner?
In his 642 game career, Delmon Young has been worth a grand total of 1.2 fWAR. Even in his career year last year, he was only worth 1.8, and he’s at a solid 0.0 this year. Through 55 games in 2011, Gardner, while struggling offensively, has been worth 1.1 fWAR. Why exactly is Young worthy of being a starter, but Gardner isn’t?
Gardner clearly has been the better player the past 1 1/3 seasons.
No. Young sucks defensively and has only been an above-average hitter in one season. He has one home run in 149 PAs this year with a .236 wOBA.
I think you’re fooling yourself in you don’t understand the value in OBP and defense.
No pitcher
On the team
Especially capable of
Starting or relieving, with quality innings.
Is there?
Interesting verse form, vaguely reminiscent of a haiku.
Interesting stuff from Madden today on Tim Norton. Solution might be in house.
Check out his numbers. Pretty impressive and dominating.
Considering Capps, Wondering with Wood, Hindsight on Hanrahan?