Jun
20

Mailbag: Cantu, Gordon, Gil, Wilson, Promotions

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I skipped out on the mailbag last Friday because it was a day game, so let’s make up for it today. I’ve got a total of nine questions, so I tried to keep the answers brief. Use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar anytime you want to ask something.

(Photo Credit: LSUsports.net)

Tucker asks: Just curious, if the Yankees hadn’t signed Rafael Soriano, which pick would they hold and who was taken then?

The Yankees gave the Rays the 31st overall pick, which Tampa used to take LSU center fielder Mikie Mahtook. Keith Law and Baseball America ranked him as the 15th and 21st best prospect before the draft, and he figured to come off the board relatively early as one of the top college hitters available. Mahtook is likely to be a right fielder down the line, but he’s a righty hitter that offers good speed and should hit for averae and decent power. I’m not a huge Mahtook fan, but if the Yankees kept that pick and took him, I’d be thrilled. Huge value.

Bart asks: Do you think the Yankees take a chance on either Kazmir or Cantu now that they’re available?

Kazmir’s unquestionably a minor league contract only guy, no doubt about it, but I’m fairly certain Cantu is completely useless. He’s hit just .212/.287/.367 in his last 670 plate appearances, his defense at first and third is awful, and he’s swinging at more and more pitches out of the strike zone despite seeing fewer and fewer pitches in the zone. I’m surprised to see that he’s still 29, but I’d don’t see anyone on the bench I’d take Cantu over. I’d give anyone a minor league deal, and hey, Triple-A Scranton could use a backup first baseman/third baseman/designated hitter, so he makes sense in that regard. For the big league team though? Not right now.

Ben asks: I was wondering how the Yankees could have had a deal in place with Brian Gordon while he was still property of the Phillies organization. Is this not considered tampering? Is this type of thing okay with minor league free agents that have out-clauses? Just hoping for a clarification.

It’s a permission thing. The Phillies sent a memo to the other 29 teams last week indicating that Gordon had an opt-out and they were not planning to promote him to the bigs, which essentially gives teams permission to negotiate a deal with him and his agent.

(Photo Credit: Flickr user bridgetds via Creative Commons license)

Ryan asks: Would there be any merit to switching Granderson and Gardner in the OF? Other than having a “conventional” power hitting LF and a speedy, OBP oriented CF, would there be any defensive difference with Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF?

Certainly, I think there’s some merit to it. Brett Gardner appears to be the superior defender in terms of jumps and read and pure range based on the eye test, though Curtis Granderson is no slouch in that department. I like how the Yankees have brought Granderson in and have him playing a little shallower this year since his strength is going back on the ball. It’s impossible to trust Gardner’s defensive numbers in center only because his playing time has been sporadic out there, but I think the difference over the course of the season would be five or so runs saved by flip-flopping the two. Not negligible, but not a massive upgrade.

J.R. asks: Now that the season is more than 1/3 over, how would you rate Betances and Banuelos? Both seem to be doing well but walking a ton of guys.

They’ve both been fine, certainly not great but also far from terrible. We’ve know that Dellin Betances‘ control and command were question marks, they always has been, so his hit or miss starts (no walks in one, five in the next) were expected. Command was Manny Banuelos‘ calling card though, and he’s already walked ten more this year than last in 5.1 fewer innings pitched (five fewer batters faced). That’s fine though, remember he just turned 20 in Spring Training and is in Double-A. His age-appropriate level in Low-A right now. They both just need to keep working at it, but remember that Banuelos is still way ahead of the curve.

Conny asks: What’s the scouting report on Jose Gil? He’s having a fine season at Trenton as Romine’s caddy. He looks like he could be a good backup catcher. He seems to have a good throwing arm. He also looks like a capable offensive player, he has a little pop, can steal an occasional base. Is his hitting this season an aberration or has he turned a corner in his development?

It’s more small sample size than anything. He’s hitting .274/.368/.487 in 133 Double-A plate appearances, but it’s also his third straight year spending time at the level. Gil’s always done a good job of throwing attempted basestealers out (34% success rate in his career, which is fantastic), and that’s really I know about his defense right now. The Yankees clearly don’t think he’s going to become anything great because he’s just been a backup catcher that bounces between levels the last few years, filling in whereever a backstop was needed. I want to see more before saying his turned a corner, and a lot more at that.

Sam asks: If you need a stolen base, who would rather be on first? Nunez, Gardner, Martin, Granderson, or Cervelli (he’s veeeeery fast for a catcher, Suzyn)?

Eduardo Nunez and it’s not particularly close right now. For whatever reason Gardner just can’t steal bases anymore, at least not as well as someone with his skill set is supposed to. Granderson’s success rate isn’t all that great this year either, and I’m not going to ask a catcher to steal a base for me. Nunez has stolen eight bags in nine chances this year, and over the last two years his success rate in the minor is 78%. He’s the lesser of several evils right now.

(Photo Credit: Flickr user mjl816 via Creative Commons license)

Justin asks: I’ve heard rumors that C.J. Wilson is looking for A.J. Burnett money, obviously that’s a little steep but if he fell into the Jorge De La Rosa/Ted Lilly range do you think he fits this offseason since there is almost no other decent SP available?

If he falls into that range, which is three years and $35M or so, then I’d certainly want the Yankees to be all over him. I just can’t see it though. Wilson is a) the same age A.J. Burnett and John Lackey where when they hit the market, and b) he’s flat out better now than they were when they were free agents. There’s also the left-handedness to consider and the fact that he’s succeeded in a hitter friendly park. I won’t do it, but I think you can also make a case that Wilson will age better than those two since his arm doesn’t have nearly as many miles on it after spending all those years as a reliever. If he continues to pitch like he is now the rest of the season, I think that five-year, $82.5M contract is a starting point for he and his agent, not a settling point.

Zach asks: At what point in the season can we expect minor league promotions to begin? Who are likely candidates to move up for each level?

Very, very soon, as in this week. The High-A Florida State League played its All-Star Game over the weekend and the Low-A South Atlantic League will get its out of the way early this week, and that’s usually when these things start to happen. As for actual promotions, here’s what I’m guessing will happen…

  • 3B/OF Rob Segedin from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa
  • 3B Rob Lyerly from Tampa to Double-A Trenton
  • LHSP Josh Romanski from Tampa to Trenton
  • RHRP Chase Whitley from Tampa to Trenton

There will be several more promotions, but those are the only moves I see as absolute no-brainers. Calling up Jesus Montero and promoting Austin Romine from Trenton to Triple-A Scranton would make sense as well, but Romine’s injury threw a big wrench into that. Both J.R. Murphy and Slade Heathcott (currently on the DL) have cooled off after hot starts, but they’ve been in Low-A since for more than a full year now following last season’s early-June promotion. I say promote Murphy but not Heathcott. Slade has really, really cooled off (.209/.261/.287 since May 1st).

Banuelos and Betances are still walking guys and need to work on fastball command, and I don’t see any reason to rush them. Promoting them now just makes the command stuff more difficult since they’ll have to figure it out against tougher competition. And besides, the SWB rotation is pretty full at the moment. Shane Greene (currently at Charleston) and Kyle Roller (Charleston but currently injured) could be in line for promotions as well.

Categories : Mailbag
  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    How much longer do you think Jairo needs before he goes to the front of the promotion line? Another month or so?

    That 9.4 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 certainly raise an eyebrow.

    • Chris V.

      I was about to ask the same thing. Also, Is he rule V eligible after the season?

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        He was signed in the 2006 IFA class, so yes, he should be R5 eligible in this 2011 go-round.

    • Andy in Sunny Daytona

      Jairo could be next year’s Hector Noesi. Add him to the 40-man and watch him climb.

  • IRF

    Gardner’s career UZR/150 is 32.8

    Granderson is at 4.8.

    It would certainly seem like Gardner could post better numbers than Granderson in CF, but maybe they both have become comfortable with their respective positions. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

    • http://www.twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

      32.8 is misleading for Gardner there. He’s at 42.7 in LF and 20.5 in CF.

      • IRF

        Yeah but if you separate them you’re dealing with kinda small sample sizes

        • http://www.twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

          As far as I know, and I could be wrong, you can’t combine them like that to make a comparison. LF is easier than CF so naturally a guy who has played time in left is going to have propped up numbers vs. a guy who has played exclusively center.

          • http://www.twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

            Granted, Gardner still comes out better, just not as much.

          • IRF

            Right, good point. I was trying to say that Gardner is probably a a better outfielder than Granderson, although its tough to say how they would adjust to new positions

  • Eddie

    Do you see the Yankees making any moves with the mets for Carlos BEltran?

  • Naved

    Betances is 23 and will turn 24 before the start of next season. I think it is time for a promotion for him to AAA if you follow the same age chart that you gave to Banuelos.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      But Betances can still learn from AA competition and the talent gap isn’t that great of a difference.

    • CS Yankee

      AAA is stacked with SP though.

      I would imagine that Dealin Dellin will be promoted to AAA sometime this year and with Brack-monster now a RP that time may be soon.

      However, if Hughes & Colon come back healthy, we might not even see Phelps promoted this year.

  • http://www.twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

    I’m totally going off the eyeball test here, but I wonder if Gardner doesn’t hold some value in LF over Granderson just based on his arm. It doesn’t look like Gardner’s arm is strong enough to make plays at the plate (or third) from CF, but he certainly keeps baserunners honest on shallow flyballs to LF. I wonder if swapping him and Granderson wouldn’t nullify the effect of Gardner’s arm, since Granderson’s arm will probably look bad no matter where he plays in the OF and Gardner’s arm won’t play as well in CF. It’s not just about the small number of times Gardner actually makes a play on a baserunner at third or home, but also about the deterrent factor of having him in LF making those throws.

    Probably doesn’t outweigh the benefit of getting the superior fielder into the more premium position, just something to consider.

    • CS Yankee

      How do you feel about Swisher’s “rainbow” throws that barely get to 2B?

      • Midland TX

        How do you feel about the fact that Swisher and Granderson are tied for 12th in the league with 4 OF assists each?

        • Mister Delaware

          Wouldn’t that totally depend on total chances / advances? Otherwise, the best cornerback is the one with the most interceptions, even if those INTs were a result of being a target for 16 weeks.

          • Voice of Reason

            Granderson’s been above average in the “Arm” aspect of UZR this season and all but one season in his ML career. Swisher definitely can’t throw, but then that’s relative to other RFers and left demands more speed and range. He’s fine.

            Gardner is a far better defender than Granderson (and pretty much everyone else in baseball), so really, he should probably be in center field. But with Granderson being who he is, and Gardner looking and playing the way he does, there’s no way they’d ever be switched. Sometimes obvious CFers just get stuck in left (Carl Crawford comes to mind), and that’s where they stay.

  • http://www.underdogdirectory.com/sports.html Chicago Clock

    After that loss yesterday any suggestions for how my
    Cubs
    can pick up the slack?

    A 10-4 loss is just not acceptable!

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Wait for the really bad contracts of yours to expire.

    • CS Yankee

      Is a 7-4 more acceptable…if so, improve the middle-relievers in July by…

      Trading Dempster to the NYY for Gordon & Logan.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Move to New York and leave that second-rate city behind.

  • Mister Delaware

    Respectfully disagree that Wilson is flat out better right now than Burnett was in 2008.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      It’s not a fair comp, because Wilson only has this season and 2010 as a starter, so his track record is shorter. That being said, what Wilson has done as a starter over this past year and a half is better than AJ the free agent starting pitcher.

      Wilson, 2010-present:
      48 starts, 308.0 IP (6.41 IP/S), 133 ERA+, 3.24/3.50/3.85 E/F/x, 1.231 WHIP, 7.69 K/9, 3.77 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9

      Burnett, 2006-2008 (his three Blue Jays seasons preceding FA):
      80 starts, 521.2 IP (6.52 IP/S), 112 ERA+, 3.92/3.82/3.56 E/F/x, 1.284 WHIP, 9.02 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9

      It’s not a Tenetian “slam-dunk” better, but it’s better. If they were both on the same FA market at the same time, I’d be more comfortable giving a 5/82M to Wilson than I would to Burnett.

      • Mister Delaware

        I see the better SO, BB and GB rates and I pick Burnett. Either way, I took more issue with the wording than someone choosing 2011 Wilson over 2008 Burnett. I’d be quite happy with both in next year’s rotation.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Wilson seems to outpitch his peripherals, though, while Burnett underpitches his peripherals.

          Burnett has dynamite stuff that leads to a sterling xFIP, but he can’t translate that to game results consistently. Wilson pitches more effectively despite generating fewer Ks because he’s more consistent and thus less hittable.

          • Mister Delaware

            Do you trust consistent and less hittable if you’re offering a contract that will run 2.5x longer than he will have been a starter to date?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              I trust less wear and tear on his arm and I trust a better four-pitch mix to allow Wilson to pitch around on nights where he doesn’t have his premium stuff (or to pitch when his premium stuff declines with age).

              All 5 year deals for pitchers 32+ years of age are fraught with danger. Burnett’s negatives scare me more than Wilson’s negatives.

              • Mister Delaware

                Its entirely possible this is just something I’m unwilling/unable to let go. If I wasn’t driving the “I LOVE THE BURNETT SIGNING” bus, I was sitting shotgun. Those peripherals were to die for.

  • Bill

    If Wilson continues his current level of play he makes a lot of sense this offseason. I’m afraid he might get overpaid in a weak market, but unlike Burnett when we signed him Wilson is a solid and consistent #2 (at worst) starter. He also pitched really well in the postseason last year and is left handed.

    Also signing him shouldn’t prevent the Yankees from going after one of the bigger name starters that could be available for the 2013 season.