Mailbag: The Next Closer
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(Photo Credit: Flickr user BrainNY08 via Creative Commons license)
Mark asks: Considering that Mo was talking it up like an “old timer” this past weekend and previously stating that this contract will be his last, what internal options do the Yankees have for a closer? What potential free agents look intriguing?
The answer to this is simple: Mariano Rivera is never going to retire and will just close games for the Yankees for all eternity. Until I’m dead at the very least, I don’t really care what happens after that.
In all seriousness, this is the question no one wants to answer. Rivera will be 42 years old after the season and has just one more year on his contract. The smart money is on him calling it a career after the 2012 season, which is going to completely and totally suck. This “old timer” is still better than the other 29 guys doing the same job. There are basically three places Mo’s heir can come from, so let’s break them down…
Currently On The Yankees
There’s three obvious candidates here: Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain, and David Robertson. Soriano is making the big bucks, Joba’s been touted as Mo’s replacement almost since the day he was called up, and Robertson’s the most effective of the bunch. Unless he continues to avoid 1-2-3 innings like the plague and/or continues to visit the disabled list, I bet Soriano gets first dibs at the job just because he has the Proven Closer™ tag. He’ll be 33 during the 2013 season, the last one on his contract and what we’re assuming is the first year post-Rivera.
Joba’s elbow reconstruction really complicates things. It’s typically a 12-month rehab but it’s not uncommon for it take 18 months before a pitcher gets back to where he was before the operation, specifically with their command. Just look at Joe Nathan. Joba had his surgery earlier this month and figures to be back with the Yankees next June. If it takes those six months to get back to being the guy he was last year and early this year, then we’re talking about the start of the 2013 season. Inserting him into the ninth inning might not be as cut and dry as it once seemed.
Robertson has been stupid effective this year (1.67 FIP and 1.3 fWAR in just 31.1 IP) but his walks continue to be a concern. His unintentional walk rate sits at 4.88 men per nine innings at the moment, which is worst than all but two current closers: Brian Wilson (uncharacteristically bad year) and Kevin Gregg (awful). Yes, it’s even higher than Carlos Marmol’s. Perhaps Robertson could get it down to sub-4.00 BB/9 by 2012, but he’s always walked a ton of guys. It would be pretty surprising for such drastic improvement. A long shot could be Hector Noesi, who some like better in a relief role because of his fastball command. I’d rather see him start, but what do I matter. We probably shouldn’t rule out Phil Hughes either.
In The Farm System
(Photo Credit: Flickr user paul.hadsall via Creative Commons license)
The Yankees best pure relief prospect at the moment is probably Chase Whitley, though you can make a case for Ryan Pope, Tommy Kahnle, Dan Burawa, or George Kontos. They’re all pretty interchangeable. Of course the vast majority of closers are failed starters*, so pretty much all the upper level starters have to be considered. That includes Adam Warren, D.J. Mitchell, David Phelps, Dellin Betances, Craig Heyer, and even Manny Banuelos. And, of course, there’s always personal fave J.B. Cox. (kidding)
As far as I’m concerned, Betances and Banuelos should continue to be groomed as starters regardless of what’s going on at the big league level. They’re clearly the most talented of the bunch and selling out even part of their future to help the big league team now isn’t the wisest thing to do. The Yankees don’t exactly have the best track record in this department though.
Mitchell still struggles with lefties and Heyer fits the middle reliever mold because his stuff isn’t anything special. I think Warren could hack it as a starter at the back of a big league rotation, but he’d also fit well as a reliever because he’s got command of one above-average pitch (the fastball) and could focus on his top secondary pitch in relief. The same applies to Phelps, though I like his chances to start a little better (assuming this latest shoulder injury isn’t anything serious).
I’m leaving Andrew Brackman out of the discussion entirely because he’s a complete disaster at the moment. He’s got to get minor leaguers out consistently before we worry about where he fits long-term with the big league team, if at all. Phil Wetherell is probably the only (signed) 2011 draftee that would even be a blip on the radar, but going from short season ball to closing at the big league level in less than two years is unprecedented. Pat Venditte, Kevin Whelan, Pants Lendleton … yeah, that probably won’t happen.
Outside The Organization
The free agent market offers a ton of big name closers after this season, but the problem is that Rivera is retiring after next season in our hypothetical situation. The post-2012 free agent class isn’t all that pretty, with Leo Nunez and Brandon League representing the best of the bunch. Huston Street, J.J. Putz, and Joakim Soria all have contract options that may or may not be exercised. Mike Adams, Sean Marshall, and Hong-Chih Kuo will also be free agents, and although they haven’t closed before, they’re all hyper-effective relievers that could probably do the job. Kuo’s injury issues this year (and, well, his entire career) make him a huge question mark though.
Who knows that the trade market will offer, but by then both Joel Hanrahan and Chris Perez will be into their arbitration years and making some decent money. Perhaps more than the Pirates and Indians will be willing to pay a guy to work 70 IP a year, respectively.
* * *
I’m pretty confident in saying that whoever replaces Rivera will have the worst job in the world because they’ll have to live up impossibly high standards. It’s almost better to be the guy that replaces the replacement, and that might be where Soriano fits in. He could step in for a year then give way to some one better, or maybe even do so in the middle of 2013 if he doesn’t get the job done. Someone’s going to have to take the heat, might as well be the one without a real super long-term future with the Yankees.
No matter what happens from here on out, we’re approaching the end of Mariano’s reign in the ninth inning, and I can assure that it will be worse than you can ever imagine. After watching the other 29 clubs over the last few years through the magic of MLB.tv, and I safely say that Mariano Rivera-less save situations are terrifying. No team has a closer for ten years these days, if someone lasts five years in the role it’s a minor miracle. That makes Mo’s career all that more impressive.
* Off the top of my head, the only current closers that were groomed in the minors as closers are Wilson, Street, and Mark Melancon.
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The Mason Williams Watch
Mark Melancon!! …oh wait…
NinjaCashman can get Melancon. just trade Melky for him…
I think an in house option would be easier to be accepted by fans as a replacement for Mo. trades/FA’s would just bring up contracts or prospects we lost every-time that reliever has a bad outing.
“I think an in house option would be easier to be accepted by fans as a replacement for Mo.”
It might be worse because they are from the farm system. This is the same fan base that booed Mo because he had early struggles in the 05 or 06 season.
Yeah, that could be true. Also the same fan base that’s constantly saying the Yankees “can’t develop pitchers.”
athere is some true to that. The book isn’t closed by any means but the journey has been an up and down one.
The journey is an up and down one for every team developing pitching prospects…
Again: context!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t want to get into this again but I have a feeling it will. If it does I’m ok with that because you do bring up good points even though I don’t agree with all of them.
Yes all teams go through a journey but they have at least one starter they can point to that made it.
They do get credit for D Rob he’s been great.
“Yes all teams go through a journey but they have at least one starter they can point to that made it.”
I also don’t want to get into this, but I think you’re thinking of this in totally the wrong way still. I will re-hash some of the same points I’ve made 100 times… but it’s pointless. What it comes down to is that you are evaluating results rather than process. If you draft Brien Taylor and he gets hurt, does that mean that at the time you made the pick it was the wrong decision? If you see two guys take swing one hits a sharp liner the LF makes a diving play to stop while one hits a weak grounder the SS can’t quite get to… is your reaction to say the second guy definitely has a better swing because he got a hit while the other guy got out?
A. Name me these teams with 1 starter who made it entirely with them who is better than Phil Hughes/Ivan Nova/CMW. Then tell me where they were drafted and/or how much they signed for.
Yankees threw money at Felix, Cole, and Prior among others only to have it thrown back in their faces. They never had a chance to draft a lot of the aces around the league who went before they picked or
B. You fault the Yankees for guys who got hurt in the majors (Hughes, CMW, etc.), and don’t give them any credit for guys they developed fully in the minors who do well elsewhere. You don’t give credit for a guy they trade for who developed elsewhere and does well as a Yankee. Is it the minor league staff you feel is incompetent or the MLB staff?
C. If that one guy hadn’t developed on those other teams for whatever reason, how many guys would they have developed? It’s a ridiculously small sample. That guy refuses to sign with them, he gets in a career ending car wreck, the GM trades him to help in a pennant race… now the exact same organizations with the exact same people doing the exact same things with the exact same philosophy change from good at developing starters to bad at it based on one event they had no control over (or one guy had control over in the trade scenario)?
Well said.
Ted, in fairness, your issue, as said, is with people who believe the Yankees “can’t develop pitchers”. Brien Taylor doesn’t belong in that group. He was never developed, he never made it above AA.
I also wouldn’t include Phil because no one knows what’s wrong with him presently (if anything). But if his shoulder is blown even partially because he was used like a yo-yo during his development, you can’t very well give the Yankees credit for developing him properly, now can you.
Wang they absolutely developed. But he’s the only one I can think of besides Kennedy.
Ted Lilly? No, he was acquired.
Karstens?
Bruney?
Clippard? (sure)
Small?
Wright?
I wasn’t going into Boston and TB again (I imagine Toronto has churned out more than a few successful pitchers, as well), so I considered Baltimore as a comparison.
Not knowing their system all that well, Bedard and Maine are the only two I can think of, but isn’t that output at least comparable to the Yankees?
And should it be?
“Brien Taylor doesn’t belong in that group. He was never developed, he never made it above AA.”
This is the problem. You are completely missing my point. Brien Taylor was just a random example of someone everyone thought was the consensus #1 pick who then got hurt. Nothing to do with the Yankees picking him. I could have just as easily used Josh Hamilton and drugs. The point there had nothing to do with the Yankees developing Taylor. It had to do with luck. With the way you are thinking about things. Sometimes you can do all the right things, and as luck would have it you fail. Sometimes you make a terrible, terrible decision and get lucky in succeeding. Drafting Brien Taylor or Josh Hamilton are pretty clear examples of this. Or take two friends who leave a bar. One is shit faced, but doesn’t get pulled over on a 50 mile highway drive, swerving the whole way and almost hitting several cars. One is barely over the legal limit and has a 1 mile drive home on local roads but hits a check point and gets a DUI. Does that mean that the drunker guy is a better drunk driver or that he got lucky?
This goes into looking at process vs. outcomes. You are obsessed with the outcome. Not with the process and the luck/context involved. To you the drunk driver didn’t get the DUI, so he’s clearly better at drunk driving. Just like the Mariners getting Felix to sign and therefore clearly being better at developing talent. Just like the Rays taking David Price #1. Just like CMW or Hughes getting hurt.
“Ted Lilly? No, he was acquired.
Karstens?
Bruney?
Clippard? (sure)
Small?
Wright?”
Again, man… it’s different people in charge now. If the former owner of your car got a DUI, does that give me the right to call you a reckless drunk driver?
“Not knowing their system all that well, Bedard and Maine are the only two I can think of, but isn’t that output at least comparable to the Yankees?”
Bedard you’re going back to a guy who was drafted in 1999. No one is arguing about the guy the Yankees had in charge in 1999, but about Oppenheimer and Nardi and co.
John Maine has 4.5 career fWAR. Phil Hughes already has 4.2 as a starter. Why doesn’t Hughes count, but Maine does?
Sure, luck can be a factor, but my issue is that in Cash’s full tenure (1998?), only Wang and maybe Kennedy (maybe because he ain’t doing it here) was developed.
You have to admit that’s a very poor record.
The BIG 3 = City of Big Dreams?
You have to admit that what happened before Oppenheimer and Nardi has little to do with them.
And, The BIG 3, Cashman is the manager of other people. That’s what the title “General Manager” implies. He oversees a bunch of people with various responsibilities. The buck does stop with him, but that doesn’t mean you ignore reality. The people who were in charge before 2005 or 2006 or whenever Opp and Nardi took over didn’t get it done, so Cashman and whoever else made a change. Now Opp and Nardi are in charge. Their results have actually been good, but people compare them to perfection and/or unfairly point to no pitchers making it before they were in charge. Most of their results are actually incomplete, though, as most of their guys are in the minors and the few who aren’t are still really young.
The BIG 3 = City of Big Dreams?
No. In respect to this sub-thread.
You have to admit that what happened before Oppenheimer and Nardi has little to do with them.
Reportedly, Cash was given full control around 1995, so there’s that too. But still, player evaluation and management is ultimately the responsibility of the GM.
“What it comes down to is that you are evaluating results rather than process. If you draft Brien Taylor and he gets hurt, does that mean that at the time you made the pick it was the wrong decision?”
Of course not that was a freak accident. But you have have a number of pitches and they lose velocity or deal with injuries doesn’t some of that fall on the organization.
“A. Name me these teams with 1 starter who made it entirely with them who is better than Phil Hughes/Ivan Nova/CMW. Then tell me where they were drafted and/or how much they signed for.”
I’m not going to dig up signing bonuses and where certain pitchers were taken in the draft. My point is after 6 yrs of implementing a plan I doubt think it’s out of the question to have guys like Hughes and Joba be further along than they are.
“Yankees threw money at Felix, Cole, and Prior among others only to have it thrown back in their faces. They never had a chance to draft a lot of the aces around the league who went before they picked or”
True draft position plays a role but there are pitchers drafted high that don’t make it either. A high pick doesn’t automatically mean you get success. The thing is the Yankees should have better results than they have right now. It could change in a couple of yrs because as I mentioned the book isn’t closed.
“B. You fault the Yankees for guys who got hurt in the majors (Hughes, CMW, etc.), and don’t give them any credit for guys they developed fully in the minors who do well elsewhere. You don’t give credit for a guy they trade for who developed elsewhere and does well as a Yankee. Is it the minor league staff you feel is incompetent or the MLB staff? ”
Yea I’m not going to pat the Yankees on the back because Kennedy is pitching well for the D’backs.I like Kennedy and I’m happy he’s doing well but we can’t point to him and say see look at how great we produce starting pitchers. It’s not like that for other teams when they move young players. they get heat for giving up too early. Do the Phillies get credit for Gavin Floyd when he won 17 games for the White Sox.
“If that one guy hadn’t developed on those other teams for whatever reason, how many guys would they have developed? It’s a ridiculously small sample. ”
They would be in the same boat as the Yankees looking to find that one guy. It might be stupid but that one pitcher makes a difference in the way fans view the process. If Hughes was a definite number 2 or Joba became an ace no one would complain about the farm.
Car wrecks are beyond anyones control. We’re talking about the process involved in developing the talent. A pitcher walks out of his house and gets hit by a stray bullet that is not his fault. But a pitcher is bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation and as a result his performance is erratic. They take some of the blame for that.
“But you have have a number of pitches and they lose velocity or deal with injuries doesn’t some of that fall on the organization.”
You have to establish over a large enough sample that it’s happening over the norm to the Yankees. Tons of pitchers get hurt and you’re calling the Yankees out for a few pitchers only, so I don’t think you’ve come close to doing that.
“I’m not going to dig up signing bonuses and where certain pitchers were taken in the draft. My point is after 6 yrs of implementing a plan I doubt think it’s out of the question to have guys like Hughes and Joba be further along than they are.”
Again… with the small sample. Two freaking guys. Every team has a few pitching prospects who bust.
6 years. Again, guys like Dellin who were drafted 5 years ago or so are still in the minors. Brett Marshall, Bryan Mitchell, Adam Warren, David Phelps, DJ Mitchell… all in the minors. Developing. You’re upset Hughes and Joba weren’t given more time to develop, and at the same time that those guys are being given time to develop. Guys like Hughes and Joba are in their mid-20s and have already had a good deal of LB success. Focusing only since Hughes was drafted… tell me how many teams have drafted more guys outside the top 20 who have had MLB success than the Yankees. Please enlighten me. I doubt you’ll find any. Hughes, Joba, DRob, Melancon… that’s a ton right there not to mention all the prospects including McAllister and the guys mentioned.
” A high pick doesn’t automatically mean you get success.”
I never, ever, ever even hinted at that. The point is that you get a much higher probability of success. That if the Yankees had the chance to draft those same exact players, they may or may not. That they have drafted top pitching prospects like Prior, Cole, Hughes, Brackman, Joba, and IPK when they fall to them gives us some indication that they might.
The point is context. You can only grade a pick relative to who is on the board. If the Yankees had the #1 pick instead of #51… do they take Dante Bichette Jr.? Doubtful. Would Cole or Bundy do any worse in the Yankees’ system than another? We have no idea.
“The thing is the Yankees should have better results than they have right now.”
Based on what? Only your say so. That’s all you argue with. “I say they should be better” “fans say they should be better.” Everyone could be better. You have to consider context to analyze things. If a 5th grade teacher grades science students relative to Einstein and flunks them all… what’s the point?
“Do the Phillies get credit for Gavin Floyd when he won 17 games for the White Sox.”
Yes, obviously they do get credit for drafting him and developing him up to a certain point. What sense does it make to assign 100% of the credit for work clearly done by multiple organizations to one organization? None.
“It might be stupid but that one pitcher makes a difference in the way fans view the process.”
Not fans. Just you. Please stop acting like you speak for all fans. I am a fan, and I disagree with you.
“If Hughes was a definite number 2″
And that might happen in a matter of weeks… The guy is hurt. When Josh Johnson had TJS did the Marlins temporarily become awful at developing talent for a year, then when he returned they were great at it?
“Car wrecks are beyond anyones control. We’re talking about the process involved in developing the talent.”
Yeah, and a lot of things involved there are beyond anyone’s control. Why do you keep ignoring that?
And in what world are car wrecks beyond anyone’s control anyway? If your car hits a lamp-post or another car, who has control over that?
“But a pitcher is bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation and as a result his performance is erratic.”
Correlation does not equal causation. Again, if you have graduated college I cannot believe the state of our educational system. I don’t mean that as an insult. I am really shocked.
That was out of line at the end there, sorry. It was terribly worded and insulting, but I really didn’t mean to insult you. What I meant to and should have said was just “correlation is not causation, didn’t you learn that in school?” Out of frustration I went way beyond that and what I actually typed was ignorant.
There*
truth*
Mariano can never be replaced that will be one sad day when he retires and we lose a distinct advantage over all other MLB teams. I’m willing to give soriano a shot he was great as a closer last year for Tampa Bay.
“Mariano Rivera is never going to retire and will just close games for the Yankees for all eternity.”
I feel this has a 75% chance of happening
He still throws in the 90′s so why not lol
Maybe if he learns a knuckleball?
Knuckler/Cutter combination. hell, lets mix a Slurve in there…
I am gonna try this on The Show tonight!!!!
Yeah, maybe if he was made of flesh and blood, and he wasn’t some cyborg he’d have only a 75% of pitching for eternity.
I say he has a 99% chance of his pitching this well for eternity. That remaining 1% allows for an batted ball incident which exposes his metallic skeleton. He would probably be outed from baseball for that.
I do wonder…when Soriano comes back if D-Rob does remain the setup guy if that hastens Soriano to opt out?
I doubt that when Soriano comes back, DRob remains the setup guy.
Firstly, because Soriano has a longer track record of being lights-out dominant than DRob does, and thus he gets the benefit of the doubt to become the primary part of the Bridge to Mowhere.
Secondly, because Soriano’s making a shit-ton of money and to justify that shit-ton, he needs to be pitching the highest leverage of innings as possible (and for all intents and purposes, that higher leverage equates to TEH EIGHTH. Yes, I know, it’s an incorrect assumption, but it’s what we’re dealing with, so let’s deal with it.)
Thirdly, Girardi (at least acknowledging to some degree the value of a fireman over the value of innings-related-roles) seems to have fallen in love with the idea of DRob the fireman, free to enter in the 6th/7th/8th with men on base where the game is on the line, which luckily means he’ll probably give that more important role paradoxically to the “lesser” of the two releivers in DRob, because he’s proven to be able to handle it.
I agree with 1. He might have to prove he’s healthy, though, before getting a chance given that he stunk and was injured. His grip on that role would seem to be looser
2. He’ll get a shot if he’s back to normal… but if he continues to stink/be injured and DRob continues to dominate I don’t think the Yankees will let pride get in the way of winning at some point. I really hope not anyway. Relievers pitch so few innings that it might take a while, but by the end of the season if early returns continued and they’re in a playoff race/the playoffs I really like to believe they’d use D-Rob in higher leverage spots.
3… you seem to be oversimplifying which is the more important role. Or I could just say “boversimplified.” If you have some more in-depth analysis I’d be interested to see it.
All of this is true, but there are a few interesting dichotomies there.
Girardi does seem to “get” the idea of having his best reliever (Robertson) pitching in the highest leverage situations. So perhaps, if this is the case he is actually just paying lip service to the notion of Soriano being his “setup guy” just to keep Soriano’s ego chipper (since he took some sort of an ego bump–not in reality, but perceived–by not going elsewhere as a closer). Smoke and mirrors, perhaps, but it may also actually be important for Soriano as someone who is used to having a fairly stringently defined role as a closer (again this isn’t necessarily in practice, but in terms of self-perception). In essence, the phrase setup implies the 8th inning, but there’s nothing to say that Robertson still won’t be the setup guy when pitching in the more important situations. The question then is, I suppose, has Girardi just happened to stumble upon the right solution or is he crafting a fragile yet potentially effective balancing act between egos and what is best for the team?
I will add here that all of this would happily blow-up and re-arrange itself if (and hopefully when) Soriano comes back and pitches effectively like himself. At that point I suppose (if Girardi stays with his stringent 8th inning guy notion) the situation described above no longer works.
“The question then is, I suppose, has Girardi just happened to stumble upon the right solution or is he crafting a fragile yet potentially effective balancing act between egos and what is best for the team?”
Probably a bit of both. There’s a difference between starting an innings and taking over mid-inning with runners on. Mentally, and certainly if you pitch out of the wind-up with no one on. I’m pretty sure it’s not an accident that Girardi sees DRob’s ability to get out of tight spots.
People talk about this being higher leverage or that being more important… but I never see them citing anything to back it up.
I don’t think it’s necessary to bring out loads of data to prove that having men on base in the 7th has higher leverage than no one on to start the 8th(assuming equivalent leads/deficits, same batter up, etc).
But there are definitely plenty of gray area situations where it’s not as cut and dry.
I just hope Soriano comes back and pitches like he has proven he’s capable of pitching, and then I honestly won’t care who pitches as fireman vs 8th inning guy.
Please don’t go, Mo! I don’t want to have to argue the merits of D-Rob vs Soriano in the 9th!
I think there’s a simplier reason to go DRob as the fireman, Soriano to the 8th.
Soriano wasn’t that hot earlier this year, and since he’s coming off an injury, they’ll probably want to ease him back into things. It would be less stressful to give him a dedicated inning. Let him come in with the bases empty and get his 3 outs. Don’t throw him into the fire bringing him in to deal with the bases loaded, no outs type situations right away.
That too.
I would eliminate the 8th inning role and have D-Rob pitch the stronger lefty inning
whether it was the 7th or 8th
Baby steps, nsalem. Baby steps.
It’s what Billy Martin or Casey Stengel would have done.
In the Torre Years, we would not have this problem. DRob’s arm would have fallen off by now.
Yep. Drob’s arm would have been Proctorized.
Billy Martin also would have choked Soriano in the dugout between innings, taken a few hits of scotch from his flask, then driven home.
Don’t think everything Billy Martin would have done is a good thing.
Is Billy Martin gonna have to choke a bitch?
There are many things that Martin did I don’t approve of. In general I always did admire his ability to manage a game. His record speaks for itself. I think he would have scoffed at the idea of someone pitching in a certain inning would take priority over the match up that occur within the inning. I think yesterdays game was a good example where the 8th inning pitcher faced the 3, 4 and 5 and Mariano faced a significantly weaker part of the line-up.
Besides the fireman thing, there are also plenty of situations where a starter throws 6 exiting with a small lead and you’ve got the full 7th, 8th, and 9th innings left. Here there’s something to later innings being higher leverage, but also something to tougher parts of the line-up often due up in one innings or the other. Hard to say exactly which factor is more important, plus there’s the consistency of role argument where pitchers may be able to better mentally and physically prepare knowing what innings/stage of the game they’ll likely be going in for. A lot of tough calls, and I think a lot of fans are over-critical about what are often marginal differences.
(and for all intents and purposes, that higher leverage equates to TEH EIGHTH. Yes, I know, it’s an incorrect assumption, but it’s what we’re dealing with, so let’s deal with it.)
While it’s not always true, it is generally true that the 9th inning is higher leverage than the 8th, and the 8th is higher leverage than the 7th, etc. It’s not perfect, but following this rule has allowed Girardi to be one of the better managers at using his better relievers in higher leverage situations.
Yeah, the point of my post wasn’t to reopen the age-old innings v. leverage debate, just to share how the current conventional wisdom (right or wrong) impacts the decision regarding DRob v. Soriano and what roles they’ll be placed in this year when Soriano returns to health (and hopefully, effectiveness).
I don’t want us all to rehash that debate, sorry for (accidentally) opening it a smidge.
He’d have to be really miserable and shit-faced to leave 25 million on the table. Although I wouldn’t be against him leaving if we could get 2 draft picks and shed the salary.
Soriano has an opt out after 2012. If Rivera retires after 2012, then Boras will totally trip Soriano’s opt-out clause knowing the Yankees will need a closer. If there’s an opt-out clause and there is leverage to be gained, Boras will use it, and that means the Yankees will need to sign Soriano to a multi-year deal. The only scenario in which Soriano doesn’t use his opt-out clause if he he’s injured and/or sucks. If that’s the case, then the Yankees will be looking for and secure another closer.
In other words, I don’t think there’s much chance Soriano will be the closer. If he’s still good (or resuming being good, since he hasn’t been good so far) he becomes a free agent. If he’s not good, the Yankees go to some other option.
Please, in the name of anything that’s holy, let Randy Levine retire or get hit by a train before this happens. its the only way the Soriano era ends before 2018 in this situation.
Please, in the name of anything that’s holy, let Randy Levine
retire orget hit by a trainbefore this happens.FTFY.
Why does he have a job, again? Guy seems to serve no purpose other than make waves/serve as media attack dog.
how cool would it be if joba came back as a starter
Very cool but he’ll be back as a reliever for the Yankees. Him starting for the team is not going to happen.
* Off the top of my head, the only current closers that were groomed in the minors as closers are Wilson, Street, and Mark Melancon.
I don’t think Craig Kimbrel was a starter in the minors. He might have been a starter in college, though, don’t know.
Oh, and Drew Storen. Started in college, drafted by the Nats at #10 and immediately converted to reliever.
Also, Chris Perez in Cleveland.
Yup, him too.
I also think Valverde was a reliever/closer coming up. I think, Mike, we’re seeing a larger number of guys groomed as relievers/closers from the get-go than in the recent past.
He was also groomed as a douche while coming up. In that sense the Tigers’ development staff did phenomenally.
Ack, scratch that…meant to say D-Backs.
It’s probably a good idea he isn’t a starting pitcher for an NL team. That would end badly for him.
He was on “The Papelbon Plan”. It’s like “The Joba Rules”, except it’s not about pitching, just about douchenozzlery.
You know if George was still alive, we would run the very distinct possibility of having a whole shit-ton more Papelbon in our lives in 2013…
Furthermore, if Cashman does not come back and Hal & Hank are left unattended, that distinct possibility would very much exist.
Jus Sayin
The timing isn’t there. Papelbon is a free man after this season.
I thought that was the Diamondbacks org?
I don’t disagree with the general failed starters becoming relievers point, but yeah it doesn’t seem quite so uncommon.
Heath Bell. Jose Valverde. Soria in Dodgers Rk league and Mexico.
Sergio Santos I think was actually an IF till 2009, then a MiLB reliever.
League converted to relief by AA at 21, K-Rod after A ball at 20. Francisco Cordero by 22 in A ball.
I think it’s rooted in pitchers being identified as “relievers” or “closers” at younger ages and pushed through minor league systems. In theory, they can develop faster as they are concentrating on only one or two pitches, so they can replace players on the MLB roster quicker.
I think there’s some of that, but I also think in a lot of instances it’s justified because of the fundamental differences between starters and relievers. If an 18 year old or 21 year old kid tires out or starts getting rocked after a few innings consistently, it’s hard not to put him in relief. Or take two pitchers: one has a dynamite mid-90s fastball (with or without command of it) and a slider or these days maybe cutter but he has absolutely zero in the way of other secondary pitches, the other has a full arsenal of pitches with good control of them but none is really a swing and miss pitch. Conventional wisdom tells you player 1 is a reliever and player 2 is a starter. Maybe the conventional wisdom is wrong when you’re talking about teenagers with lots of development ahead, but there does seem to be something to it in a lot of cases. Guys who get by on a plus FB alone which might even have questionable control often have a hard time getting through a line-up multiple times, but might be able to come in and get you three or six outs pretty consistently without allowing much damage.
Some young guys are moved to relief early because they’re just not good enough to be starters. Maybe as they develop they get moved to a rotation, but maybe they develop only one plus pitch and one passable secondary pitch and are kept in relief.
At the same time, someone who is a better starter in the low minors might not be a better reliever as they start to reach high minors and MLB. He might have good control and off-speed stuff that keeps minor leaguers off balance, but lack the one or two plus pitches to get MLB hitters and high minors hitters out.
I think Mariano will pitch as long as he maintains this level of effectiveness and remains healthy. He is a splendid athlete who appears to be in peak physical condition. He enjoys what he is doing and I think he will keep on doing it as long as he is at the top. I believe his mindset is that his timetable is in God’s hands.
Right, but I think he is a very devout Christian who wants to engage more fully in religious service (he’s said so for years).
If he said this is his last contract, I believe him. He probvably has plans for what he wants to do next in his life.
That’s true, but every time Rivera has signed a multi-year deal, he’s said it was his last contract. I think he might’ve even started saying that during the 90s when he was on arbitration contracts.
It’s not easy to let go of the game.
Everytime I try to get out… they pull me back in.
Sincerely,
That Movie That I Didn’t Watch
Sincerely,
That Movie That I Didn’t Watch
Probably better off.
Interesting point about how tough its going to be the first guy that replaces Mo.
The thing is, all closers fail, and people remember when they fail because it hurts so much. Whoever replaces Mo is going to have his unavoidable failures magnified because he’s stuck with the “Not Mo” tag.
It will be completely unfair. Heck, even Mo’s had some of the most EPIC fails in the history of baseball. 1997 ALDS. 2001 World Series(still causes pangs of sadness). 2004 ALCS (still causes shivers). But these failures, and even his subsequent lesser regular season ones, are a blip on the radar screen in everyone’s perception because he has had SOOOO many moments of success. Also, his major fails all came after initial success (Mo did all the heavy lifting for the ’96 championship teams bullpen).
So whoever replaces Mo is going to have some big time successes before his first failures if he doesn’t want to be pilloried. Meaning (1) don’t blow any saves to the Sox in that first regular season, and (2) win a World Series before your first major blown save in the playoffs.
Good Luck.
Maybe we can get John Wetteland back. What’s he doing these days?
Still trying to wash out the nasty sweat stains from his ’96 hat.
I think he’s a coach with the Mariners.
(2) win a World Series before your first major blown save in the playoffs.
Funny that Mo didn’t do this. At least, he didn’t win a WS as a closer before blowing a big save.
True, but the myth of Mo (which is scarily close to the truth of Mo) was the built by his incredible ’96 season/post-season — a season that ended with a WS championship.
He was already thought of as wonderful under pressure by the time he became a closer in ’97.
The myth of Mo was also built on observers generally being smarter than they’re given credit for. Even with Mo’s epic fails (like a few examples you noted), it’s not as if the opposing offense actually crushed him or anything. To anyone who watches the game, Mo has always been unhittable (even after he’s given up a run on a seeing-eye single).
Normally I don’t get into the whole god is talking, universe spinning, larger than life questions. At all. Let alone on teh intertubes.
That said, your comment brings to mind and heart a question I’ve long pondered, which is…how the FUCK did the Yankees not win the 2001 WS on karma alone? That night I seriously cried that cathartic cry that was as much about what had happened on 9/11 as it was about that stupid fucking dunk hit. Oddly, the U2 superbowl halftime show did much to help soothe my heart.
/okayyeahsorryabsofuckinglutelydonewiththatnowkcuthxbye
When he leaves…I will retire as a Yankees fan.
I hope you’re joking.
What do you care?
I don’t, really, it’s just a little odd, IMO. It seemed so bizarre and random, I thought it was a joke.
Why would Mo no longer being a Yankee make you not be a Yankee fan anymore? Please, enlighten me.
Well first it was a joke and 2nd, to retire from beomg a fan does not mean I would become a fan of another team by default.
will you just be following golf? or doing analysis for MLB Network?
Yeah, I wasn’t saying you were going to be a Pirates fan or something, I was just like “is this guy serious?”, that’s all.
I should have said “You’re joking, right?” as opposed to “I hope your joking”. My word choice added a layer of context I didn’t intend, my bad.
No harm no foul.
have you groomed your replacement yet? we can’t have any sub standard yankee fans, you know…
There are a few in the minors…
Any guys with potential or just a bunch of reaches? lol
He starting grooming a replacement, but then they started talking about Tanks and Soldiers and stuff.
had to trade them to LoHud for a PTNL (poster to be named later)…
I wrote something similar to this, though I only wrote about Robertson and Joba. Check it out http://ywwob.blogspot.com/2011.....-joba.html
Rivera at the end of a game is like having a cheat code for the end of a video game…
Up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, A, B, A, B, select, start.
I wonder how many will understand that.
I messed it up, too… it’s not “A, B, A, B”, it’s just “B, A”. I stared at it for like 10 seconds and realized I was wrong.
tommie, you were wrong about something ? im gonna mark it on the calender, lol, just kidding
There is no joy in Mudville.
30 LIVES!
LOL, you totally just aged yourself dude.
Whatever, dude.
(resumes watching Fraggle Rock on Netflix)
Instead of retiring Rivera’s number, maybe the Yankees should just retire the ninth inning in his honor.
(and yes, I know his number is already retired for Jackie Robinson.)
The team should retire Metallica in Mo’s honor.
Kill James Hetfield, Lars Ulrich, Kirk Hammett, Robert Trujillo, have them all stuffed, and mount their heads on the wall of Monument Park.
Well, Jason Newsted.
What am I, producing an A&E Biography on them?
Nice and subtle. I like it.
Got two words for you MO. Stem Cells. See you in 2013, friend…
Sincerely,
Bartolo Colon
too funny.
The fat man to the sand man.
This is totally out of the blue but I was just thinking about Brian Wilson’s beard and how disgustingly nappy it has become. Anyways, can you imagine Youk with facial hair like that?
Anything is better than seeing Youkilis without facial hair. The guy looks like the missing link.
not totally out of the blue. you can’t spend 2 innings watching a baseball game without seeing that asshole’s ‘Mystic Beard’ commercials. OVER IT
Side note: We should all consider ourselves blessed to have experienced a dying breed. The only closer left in the Majors that is not a douche.
Seriously, all the Elder Statesmen are complete asshats. we have a chance with the younger guys (Melancon, League) to teach them some humility. But Papelbon, Valverde, KRod, Perez… throw them off a bridge
Worst article ever to appear on RAB, bar none. You should be ashamed of yourself Mike.
(sobs hysterically, punches hole in wall. Drinks from brown paper bag.)
Worst article ever to appear on RAB, bar none.
False. This article was not written by Hannah, ergo, it cannot possibly be the worst article ever to appear on RAB.
Q.E.D.
Of course. Those are truly, TRULY terrible. What I meant to say was that it’s the worst article Mike has posted here, which is in and of itself, quite a feat.
Apologies TSJC, I will check with you before I make such a hyperbolic statement in future.
Thank you. Hannah knows how much she sucks horribly, and she would be deeply hurt to hear you take away the one thing that she has left in this world, her unbearable suckiness that makes me want to never read RAB ever again.
i say mo junior is our next closer.
I’d love for it to be Robertson, but I’m not going to hold my breath on those walks coming down. I have this pipe dream of the Yankees ditching the one-inning closer after Mo retires, but I know that’s not going to happen.
I have this pipe dream of the Yankees ditching the one-inning closer after Mo retires, but I know that’s not going to happen.
I have this pipe dream that after Mo retires, the Yankees spearhead the new wave of closing: One batter at a time.
We sign Huston Street to pitch the first batter of the 9th, Jonathan Papelbon to pitch to the second batter of the 9th, and KRod to finish it out with the final batter of the 9th.
We can’t lose, baby!
#ParkerLewis
Man, they’re going to Torre some relievers in innings 6-8.
Pat Venditte pitches every 6th inning, lefty, then pitches every 7th inning, righty.
324 IP a year, for three years. By the time he dies on the mound in October of that third year, we’ll have had three full seasons to find and develop another ambidextrous middle reliever.
Rinse and repeat.
I believe that Papelbon, like all red sock players, was only groomed to be a first class doucshebag
Andy takes over for Mo after having a chat with Jesse Orosco.
Oil Can Boyd tried to make a comeback two years ago. At 49.
Good-Andy has alot of time still to get bored with “sittin around the house”. He can $it around the bullpen instead.
I hope that the “closer” is, at least for a while, just an export a la Soriano, who can stay for two years, not kill the team but still be killed by the fans for not being Mo, before one of the killer Bs* (or someone else, maybe Jobertson) steps in.
*Like most of the people here, I have no desire to see the yankees “groom” any of them as relievers. I just think there’s a decent chance that one of them “fails” as a starter and winds up in the bullpen, and has enough talent to excel there. Not saying who.
J. “Killer” B. Cox?
my prediction may be more upsetting than that
Damon suBlett, converted to the mound, where he discovers a 99 MPH heater and a wipeout slider?
I’m not sure Banuelos has “future stud reliever” written on him — his best pitch is the change, the breaking stuff is inconsistent.
I think he was talking about Betances. Just my hunch.
No love for Pat Venditte as future closer? Now that would be sweet.
jonathan papelbon!
MATT DAMON!
only if it is for depth
\deadhorsebeating?
The most likely closer after 2012 is Mo.
how old is Mo Jr? maybe after a couple of years of yankees being in lastplace with who ever is closing getting killed Mo in the front office stands up and sends his child to redeem us all and save us
I’m waiting for Jafet Rivera and Jaziel Rivera to come save us.
Comming soon, the Mariano Rivera human clone project.
Get on this, Steinbrenners!
Brian Gordon.
#lackofdepth’d
#cashmanfailed
tsjc, because you have a link to everything – did someone actually say this?
wasnt it the big 3 yesterday?
I’ve been seeing tsjc/others say this before yesterday. I don’t think Big 3 actually said “Cashman failed,” either, just that he didn’t have appropriate depth and that Freddy Garcia should’ve been the Yankees’ 15th starter, or something
CC
Grienke/Lee/Haren
AJ
Hughes
Pavano/Westbrook/Garland
Garcia
Nova
Colon
is much worse than:
CC
AJ
Hughes
Garcia
Nova
Colon
Brian fucking Gordon
No doubt. You’re all right and I’m wrong (and you better hope you’re right for another 100 games + playoffs).
:beats head against wall:
when the heck did you ever bring up Greinke, Lee, Haren, Pavano, Westbrook, or Garland…?
(By the way, Cashman did try to get Lee and Pavano. He didn’t. Because they were free agents, and can make their own decisions. And look, I never mind a player on a minor league deal, but guys like Garland and Westbrook wouldn’t have taken those. And if you think the Yankees’ best use of resources was outbidding the Cardinals to get Westbrook in the rotation, well.)
I had to actually name names? When it’s said to you that pre-season depth was a problem because the number 4 and 6 starters are on a first name basis with most of this country’s arm specialists kids, it also has to be said that more viable replacements should had been acquired too (or instead)?
My issue was that you never really said what that depth should be. You said they should get established guys like Wakefield, but then praised the Rays for bringing up Alex Cobb and slammed the Yankees for getting Garcia.
Is the first list of people better than the second? Of course it is. But the first list of people wasn’t entirely feasible, and you’re ignoring these facts:
1. Yeah, Cashman went after some of those pitchers (Lee and Pavano, again). They didn’t come here, and there were likely a number of reasons why. But he didn’t just ignore it.
2. When guys like Westbrook and Garland can get major league deals from other teams that they are willing to go to, they’re probably not going to take a minor league deal for less money to be the 6th or 7th starter for the Yankees.
3. Yeah, depth guys for pretty much every team are flawed. That’s why they’re depth, and not getting nice contracts from other teams and/or already starting.
The Greinke non-trade, the Haren non-trade, fine criticism, even though we still don’t entirely know what went on there.
Why should I have said what the depth should be when I was referring to Cash’s bungling of his pitching depth before the season actually started?
My issue was, is – and I really thought I was perfectly clear on this – starting the season with the following depth:
CC
AJ
Hughes
Garcia
Nova
Colon
was a disaster waiting to happen, primarily because Cash really didn’t have any kid that was ML ready (that was corrected by Ted, with Phelps).
If you thought I meant he should go sign Wakefield, I didn’t express myself well.
Okay, I get what you’re saying now, I thiiiink. The only thing is, you then praised the Red Sox for having similarly injury-prone depth. Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K, Wakefield, Aceves – these guys were all injury question marks. Some of them have worked out and some of them haven’t, just like the Yankees’ depth.
BIG 3,
Your opinion of Colon and Garcia was wrong. Yet you still want to slam Cashman because he knew more than you and was right? Do you not realize why that has been called batshit insane by 3 or 4 people the last 2 days?
Your reasoning is literally that the Yankees should have signed some piece of junk like Jake Westbrook to the 2 year $16.5 mill deal he got… and Cashman is the idiot? Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland? Do you really not realize that those guys are worse than Colon and Garcia?
And you are talking about before the season and ignoring that Brackman was thought to be about MLB ready before the season. It’s gone terribly… but he was the pitching depth in AAA ahead of Noesi, Warren, Phelps, and Mitchell… AAA rotations don’t just much richer with prospects than that. 5 prospects.
bexarama,
You make some good points, but using logic here is hopeless.
Not to mention that if Montero and/or Manny and/or Dellin become studs… you might be thankful for years that the Yankees didn’t trade them for a few years of Haren/Greinke or a few months of Cliff Lee. Judging a non-deal like those on early returns before we see what the prospects do long-term is ridiculous. Have some patience.
The only thing is, you then praised the Red Sox for having similarly injury-prone depth. Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K, Wakefield, Aceves – these guys were all injury question marks.
Obviously the best response to your statement is that, while Epstein has lost 3 of his top starters, he hasn’t had the need to address that problem by turning to the FA market, nor his kids. He had Wakefield, Aceves, and Miller, pitchers who he had at least some level of comfort with, already on board, ie, he dealt with eventual DL issues by adding functional depth before the season even began.
Now, you can argue that Brian Gordon is better than those guys, and really, who’s to say he isn’t, but you can’t argue that Cash was properly prepared for two of his starters being lost, even though he’s been incredibly fortunate with both Garcia and Colon. After all, how would he had known that Brian fucking Gordon would even be available, ever. And if was not, what was his plan then other than finding some other scrub?
BIG 3,
Your opinion of Colon and Garcia was wrong
My opinion, alone? Care to give me one single link to any site predicting Garcia and Colon becoming functional number 2 and 3 starters for this team?
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpd.....position=P
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpd.....position=P
Out of curiosity, care to predict their lines going forward?
You forgot:
Josh Johnson
Tim Lincecum
Ron Guidry
Jeff Nelson
Whitey Ford
Casey Kelly
Keep laughing, Jorge. After all, there is zero possibility that either Colon or Garcia fail; and if we know anything about rival GM’s, we know they’re just squealing with glee about trading their capable starter to the Yankees for a bag of balls.
i got a feeling that the Yankees reputation for not developing pitcher will change after Manny Banuelos, and Delin Betances become big time Aces for this team.
They are being handled differently in respect to professional innings pitched and growth so, yeah, I tend to agree.
When that happens you won’t hear a word.
“You have to establish over a large enough sample that it’s happening over the norm to the Yankees. Tons of pitchers get hurt and you’re calling the Yankees out for a few pitchers only, so I don’t think you’ve come close to doing that.”
Small sample size maybe but that’s what we have to work with. I can’t sit back and say a few pitchers got hurt but it has very little to do with how they are handled because the sample size is small. We may be talking about a few pitchers but it’s a a few pitchers over 6 yrs of a developmental plan.
“Again… with the small sample. Two freaking guys. Every team has a few pitching prospects who bust. ”
True every team has a failure but more often than not have at least one success story. The current success story for the Yankees is a pitcher who no longer plays for the organization.
“Guys like Hughes and Joba are in their mid-20s and have already had a good deal of LB success. ”
Yes they have had a good deal success but failure as well. You can’t look at both of those pitchers going forward and be 100% confident that they will continue to provide high impact for this franchise. That doesn’t mean their careers are over but unlike yrs ago when they first came up their are questions out their performance and health.
“I doubt you’ll find any. Hughes, Joba, DRob, Melancon… that’s a ton right there not to mention all the prospects including McAllister and the guys mentioned.”
Melancon and Zach aren’t even on the team anymore. As I said before Drob was a great find and they get credit for that.
“Based on what? Only your say so. That’s all you argue with. “I say they should be better” “fans say they should be better.” Everyone could be better. You have to consider context to analyze things.”
Based on the fact that it’s been six yrs Ted. Not 1, 2, or 3 but six. I understand things take time. I realize they aren’t going to have 5 homegrown pitchers in the rotation but you don’t think the Yankees themselves believe they would be further along at this point.
“Yes, obviously they do get credit for drafting him and developing him up to a certain point. What sense does it make to assign 100% of the credit for work clearly done by multiple organizations to one organization? None. ”
My point is they don’t take bows for him coming from their system. He was terrible as a Philly but has had success as a White Sox. When ppl talk about them developing pitching does anyone say they did a great job at developing Floyd? No, they don’t.
“Not fans. Just you. Please stop acting like you speak for all fans. I am a fan, and I disagree with you. ”
You’re a fan that disagrees and that’s fine but there are fans that agree with what I say whether it’s on this blog or another one.
“And that might happen in a matter of weeks… The guy is hurt. When Josh Johnson had TJS did the Marlins temporarily become awful at developing talent for a year, then when he returned they were great at it?”
I’m tempering my enthusiasm when it comes to Hughes. I’m hoping for the best but there is no guarantee he’s going to come back and slot right behind CC.
“And in what world are car wrecks beyond anyone’s control anyway? If your car hits a lamp-post or another car, who has control over that? ”
My point the team can’t be blamed for a pitcher getting into a car crash. They don’t have control over that. It was an analogy that was not needed to be honest with you.
“Correlation does not equal causation. Again, if you have graduated college I cannot believe the state of our educational system. I don’t mean that as an insult. I am really shocked.”
Ted I like debating with you because you fight for what you believe in but I will say it one more time calm down with the insults. I understand other ppl insult you but I don’t. Leave all the other stuff on the cutting room floor and let’s just stick to baseball.
So I guess it’s just bad luck that Hughes is on the DL with a bad shoulder after reliving one yr and then starting the next. It’s just bad luck that he pitched a huge number of innings last yr and the stint in the pen had no affect on his struggles after May-the first couple of starts in 2011. I get it pitchers get hurt, it happens, and the organizations doesn’t bare any of the responsibility.
As I said above, I apologize for the last comment. It was poorly written and a stupid thing for me to say, but what I meant was: “correlation is not causation, didn’t you learn that in school?”
The idea is just not to jump to the conclusion that the Yankees are responsible for Joba and Hughes’ states. Absolutely could be. However, when pitchers get hurt all the time regardless of role… it could not be. No reason to jump to one conclusion or the other. Just see how it turns out over a larger sample. The sample for Opp and Nardi is not big enough yet. That’s my whole argument. Not that they’re amazing and incredible pitcher acquirers and developers. That they’ve done a lot more relative to what they’ve had to work with than you give them credit for, and that in the next few years we’ll learn a lot more. I have no problem with you saying results haven’t been good. Or with you saying Cashman’s reign before Opp and Nardi didn’t give us hardly any pitchers out of the system. However, there are a bunch of reasons that just saying “they can’t develop pitchers” is ludicrous.
Hughes has already been a successful MLB starter. His career has already, at what? 25, been more successful than the average mid-1st rounder. He doesn’t have to throw another pitch to be a success. However, he’s temporarily side lined and already making rehab starts where his velo is back up a bit. There is reason to expect him to do at least a bit more in MLB. I’m not rushing to buy tickets to his HOF induction, but he’s already been solid (again, almost as many fWAR as a starter as John Maine who you pointed to as a success, and more fWAR when considering relief).
There are fans that agree with what you say, but there are fans that agree with what I say too. By saying that “fans” feel like x you make it sound like you have the majority behind you… that’s pure speculation unless you have reliable poll numbers.
Dude… again… 6 years is NOTHING. It takes most prospects like 4 years to get through the minors even if they are big successes… so you are NOT LOOKING AT 6 YEARS. You are looking at about the first two years of those 6 years. Dellin was drafted 5 years ago, is a HUGE prospect, and is STILL IN THE MINORS. Stop saying you’re looking at 6 years. It’s misleading.
You are too strict on who you will count and who you won’t. Gavin Floyd was used to get what at the time was a top of the line #2 starter from the White Sox in Freddy Garcia. He was a success for the Phillies. Just like IPK was a success for the Yankees since he was part of the Granderson deal. Just like McAllister and Melancon and Arodys and Coke and Dunn helped the Yankees by being trade pieces… not all the trades worked out, but there’s value in developing trade assets. The goal is to win games, not to develop prospects. Developing prospects is a means to an end, not an end in itself.
I didn’t mention John Maine that was the big 3.
“There are fans that agree with what you say, but there are fans that agree with what I say too. By saying that “fans” feel like x you make it sound like you have the majority behind you… that’s pure speculation unless you have reliable poll numbers. ”
Fair enough I should say there are a portion of fans that feel the same way I do.
“He doesn’t have to throw another pitch to be a success.”
In a way he does. If he never throws a pitch or 4-5 yrs from now he’s just a long man/spot starter his career will be viewed as a flash in pan.
“Dude… again… 6 years is NOTHING. It takes most prospects like 4 years to get through the minors even if they are big successes… so you are NOT LOOKING AT 6 YEARS. You are looking at about the first two years of those 6 years. Dellin was drafted 5 years ago, is a HUGE prospect, and is STILL IN THE MINORS. Stop saying you’re looking at 6 years. It’s misleading.”
It’s six yrs since the process started though. Yes guys like Dellin are still in thr minors learning their craft but most of my attention is directed at guys like Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy, J B Box, Melancon, etc.
You made some good points in that last statement.
“In a way he does. If he never throws a pitch or 4-5 yrs from now he’s just a long man/spot starter his career will be viewed as a flash in pan.”
But my point is that his flash in the pan is a lot more than most players drafted in his spot will ever experience. He’s already an MLB success with 6 fWAR on his career. If you draft a first rounder and get 6 fWAR by the time the guy is like 25, 26… that’s a success.
This is what I keep saying about context. In 3 years the Yankees drafted Hughes, Joba, and IPK all in the 1st/1supp round. That’s a huge success already. 1st rounders outside the top 15, 20 just don’t make the bigs and find success all the time. I think you seriously underestimate how hard it is for prospects to succeed in MLB… how rare it is. That’s why I keep going back to context.
Those 3 alone is a success already. Since 2004, though, they’ve drafted a bunch of other MLB pitchers, prospects, and/or guys knocking on the MLB door: Marquez, Dunn, Pendleton, Robertson, Melancon, Betances, McAllister, Kontos, Norton, McCutchen, Brackman, Pope, Brett Marshall, DJ Mithcell, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Stoneburner, Bryan Mitchell, Shaeffer Hall, Evan DeLuca, Chase Whitley, Gabe Encinas, Rutckyj…(They also drafted Drew Storen, Doug Fister, and Gerrit Cole but didn’t get them signed…)
Then you add in that even those 6, 7 years ago guys are in their mid-20s. You say “if he’s only a long-reliever in 4 years…” but the other side to that coin is that he could be an ace or a good starter in 4 years. There are the Roger Clemens’ and Doc Gooden’s and Felix’s of the world who get it at 21 years old… but there are also the Randy Johnson’s and Curt Schilling’s and Cliff Lee’s and Doc Halladay’s who take longer.
Then you also act like the Yankees lost out on IPK and these other guys they traded. Newman addressed this in his interview yesterday. He said that he and Cashman both felt really good about IPK’s chances… but they wanted Curtis Granderson. He was preaching patience on Melancon, but they thought Berkman was the right piece to win the WS… and his subsequent turn-around this season is some justification that their scouts were right. They didn’t give up on those two… they traded them for good value. I would definitely read that NoMaas interview (linked to on RAB) if you haven’t.
“Yes guys like Dellin are still in thr minors learning their craft but most of my attention is directed at guys like Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy, J B Box, Melancon, etc.”
You’re only looking at 1/2 the story, though. In 10 years we might remember the 2006 draft as much for Betances and Kontos as for Joba, IPK, DRob, Melancon, McAllister, McCutchen, Russo, and Curtis. And that’s just an early draft 5 years ago… Opp’s tenure might be remembered more for drafting Rutckyj, or Encinas, or Stafford, or Cote, or Hayden Sharp, or Nik Turley… and according to you all it takes is one star to make you good at developing pitching prospects. But over what time line? No stars in 6 years makes you a failure, but what if 3 of the guys who drafted/developed then become stars in the next 3 years?
And I haven’t considered the Aceves, Banuelos, Nova, Noesi, Ramirez, guys who can’t get visas types from the IFA market.
The BIG 3 says:
June 28, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Sure, luck can be a factor, bu
Sure, luck can be a factor, but my issue is that in Cash’s full tenure (1998?), only Wang and maybe Kennedy (maybe because he ain’t doing it here) was developed.
You have to admit that’s a very poor record.
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Ted doesn’t count anything regarding the farm pre 2005/2006. So Cashman’s record doesn’t start in 98 when it comes to the farm.
Cashman is the boss of Oppenheimer and Nardi, just like he’s been the boss of other amateur scouting directors and MiL pitching coordinators. I don’t know how much day-to-day stuff he does anymore period, but take Bill Gates and Microsoft… if one division of Microsoft were struggling and the manager in charge of that division fired… would you say Bill Gates can’t do whatever that division did? Would you hold the new manager responsible for the old manager’s fuck-ups? Ultimately Bill Gates looks bad because of the old guy/girl fucking up… but that doesn’t mean Bill Gates fucked up. Maybe he shouldn’t have hired them, maybe he left them there too long… but if he’s hired a new manager and early returns are strong… you don’t just make blanket statements that “Microsoft can’t do x” or “Bill Gates can’t do x.”
Acting like Bill Gates runs every aspect of Microsoft personally or Cashman runs every aspect of the Yankees personally is disingenuous.
He doesn’t run every aspect of the team but you don’t count what happened before 05/06. I was giving a legit statement. I didn’t mean it in a bad way.
Cashman’s record does start whenever he took over… I’m just saying that in my view he takes responsibility for the overall picture and for managing the components of that picture. The overall picture has been great. The pitching development not so, but he made a change that I think has been great when he put Opp and Nardi and whoever else in charge of whatever they’re all in charge of.
Ted Nelson says:
June 28, 2011 at 2:20 pm
The BIG 3 = City of Big Dreams?
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Nope
nice try though
Pants Lendleton for mayor
Worst post evar
David Robertson has been much better of late. Last six appearances he had one where he walked two batters, and in the other 5 he didn’t walk any. His ability to strike people out at such a high rate has been able to mask his control issue, but since he has received the eightth inning role, he has been better and should be considered for the closer role when the time comes and if he is still on the team.
That was out of line at the end there, sorry. It was terribly worded and insulting, but I really didn’t mean to insult you. What I meant to and should have said was just “correlation is not causation, didn’t you learn that in school?” Out of frustration I went way beyond that and what I actually typed was ignorant.
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I accept your apology just don’t make it a habit even though you have lol
*extends hand*