Open Thread: The My9 Curse

Tonight's game has been rained out
Phelps, Betances get rocked in losses
(Photo Credit: Flickr user prozaciswack via Creative Commons license)

Is it just me, or is every game broadcast on My9 somehow impacted by rain? And not just this year either, it seems like this has been happening since the dawn of time the YES Network. The Yankees and Reds are going to play two games tomorrow, New York’s first of at least three double headers this season. They also have two games scheduled for July 30th and August 27th, both against the Orioles to make up some April rain outs. The good news is that they have Thursday off, so the bullpen shouldn’t get too wrecked tomorrow.

Anyway, we’re left without baseball tonight, or at least baseball we care about. Here’s your open thread, which you can use to talk about the A’s and Mets (Outman vs. Gee), whatever game they show on MLB Network, the College World Series (South Carolina vs. Virginia, 7:30pm ET on ESPN, not an elimination game), or whatever your heart desires. You all know what to do, so have at it.

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Tonight's game has been rained out
Phelps, Betances get rocked in losses
  • 28 this year

    With the starters being Garcia and Gordon, you think the Yankees have someone ready in case they need another pitcher for the second game?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Noesi hasn’t thrown since Saturday (15 pitches) and then Friday before that (18 pitches). He could probably go 3-4 innings or so.

  • first time lawng time

    Do the Red Sox ever lose anymore? Seriously, it’s disgusting.

    • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

      The White Sox whooped the Red Sox’s asses the other week.

      • Brian

        You mean like two weeks ago? God I hate them so much.

    • http://twitter.com/Bismarck1872 Jerome S.

      I honestly don’t remember the last time that they lost. There’s no doubt, they’re on a roll. But they can’t sustain this – someone’s gotta get hurt, or they’ll hit a stretch of bad luck, or the rotation will have a bad turn. But right now, it’s painful – and don’t expect them to report when they do lose.

      • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

        They lost a game to the Rays. That’s all I remember. They’re a very good team, but this pace is not sustainable.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          False. They’re the best team ever, and they will never lose again.

          • The BIG 3

            Fanboy. I like the Yankees, and Sox, Jays, Rays and Orioles. I like them all. I like good baseball most of all. I like Cano mauling balls, Youk getting on base, Jose being Jose, and the prospect of how good Toronto and Baltimore can be, given time. I like Price, Hellickson and Longo. IMO, TB is easily the best racket in this division, given what they have to work from. “Our” Yankees, the worst, again, given their advantage.

            Thank god I don’t have to resort to posting stupid shit because my knowledge of baseball is restricted to one team. Open your eyes, son, it’s a great world out there.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              You do know I’m just goofing off, right?

    • MikeD

      It’s not going to be pretty for a while with the Red Sox, meaning as a Yankee fan expect them to keep winning lots of games. They’re in interleague play right now and they’ve overall drawn the easiest schedule, with the Pirates, Padres and Astros.

      If it’s any comfort, the Sox were leading in 2009 through interleague. They started falling apart once they had to only play AL teams.

      They’ll slow down, but not during interleague.

  • Stratman9652

    Will tomorrow’s games be aired on my9 or YES?

    • Stratman9652

      Nevermind. Day game on YES, Night game on my9. Via Mark Fiensand on twitter.

  • first time lawng time

    What’s the deal with Montero? I think he should come up now.

    • YankeesJunkie

      With Martin healthy Montero won’t get to play everyday which hurts him not helps.

  • first time lawng time

    Just for clarification, is FIP read the same way one would read or interpret ERA?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Yes, FIP, xFIP, and tERA are all scaled to the typical ERA scale for ease of comparison.

      • first time lawng time

        Okay. Thankyou.

      • A-Rod’s Wingman

        I thought they were scaled to RA…

    • Brian

      But which FIP is the best FIP? FIP, xFIP, FIP-, etc.

      • YankeesJunkie

        FIP is basically the same as FIP- except is scaled to league average so the lower the better. So if you want to see how good a pitcher is doing in terms of FIP compared to average use FIP-, if you want to compare FIP and ERA then FIP. xFIP only really helps with big home run discrepancies IMO.

      • 28 this year

        xFIP just gives the pitcher a league average HR/FB rate. FIP- gives you an idea of how good the pitcher is compared to the league average. It should all just be put together to give you an idea. xFIP tries to take the luck all of flyballs that the pitcher might be experiencing.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          It should all just be put together to give you an idea.

          Which is why I like giving a pitcher’s ERA/FIP/xFIP as a pitching tripleslash, just like BA/OBP/SLG.

          Three descriptive statistics > one descriptive statistic.

          E/F/x.

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

        It’s also worth noting that there was a study on Hardball Times that showed xFIP was the best predictor of future ERA.

        • Jose the Satirist

          Really? Do you have a link? I’ve always seen future prediction strength as:
          SIERA > tRA > FIP > xFIP > ERA

        • MikeD

          That’s interesting. There are those even among the sabermetrically inclined who are fans of defense independent pitching stats like FIP, but they question xFIP. KLaw is one of them.

          I don’t have a strong enough view yet on xFIP to agree or disagree.

  • http://twitter.com/dpatrickg Dirty Pena

    My9, or whoever’s decision it was to not include My9 games on the “Yankees on YES” internet package (despite it being a YES-run operation) can go fuck themselves.

  • Levi

    On the topic of FIP, there’s a discrepancy between Manny Banuelo’s FIP here (3.76) vs Fangraphs (4.11). His ERA is still the same both places though. I don’t mean to pick nits, just something I noticed.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I calculate the one on the site myself and our league adjustments are different. First Inning says 4.20.

      • Levi

        I see. Thanks.

  • Brian

    I vote Garcia out of the rotation if Hughes comes back healthy and effective. Who’s with me?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      This assumes that Gordon has already been displaced for Colon, correct?

      • Brian

        Yes. Garcia’s LD rate and LOB% scare the crap out of me.
        CC-Colon-AJ-Hughes-Nova going forward please.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          I’ll kick the can down the road. I’m inclined to move Garcia to the bullpen (longman) and keep Nova in the rotation, but I’ll let their starts over the next month make my decision for me.

          Hot hand stays, cold hand goes.

      • Brian

        Also, now that you mention Colon, if he can stay healthy for the rest of the year should we offer him arbitration in the offseason? Could he replicate his newfound success next season? Would he qualify as a type A free agent? Am I asking too many questions?

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

          As of right now, Colon doesn’t qualify for either Type A or Type B status. If I’m in charge, I probably just let Colon walk or try and sign him to a very cheap deal. I wouldn’t want to risk his health two years in a row.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          if he can stay healthy for the rest of the year should we offer him arbitration in the offseason?

          What’s he making this year, 2M? Fuck and yes. He’d probably decline, too, and prefer unfettered free agency coming off such a good season.

          Could he replicate his newfound success next season?

          Stranger things have happened. If the price is right, I’ll gamble, sure.

          Would he qualify as a type A free agent?

          I can’t see how, he’s missed so much time.

          Am I asking too many questions?

          Dante: I thought the fat one didn’t talk that much.
          Randal: What am I, producing an A&E Biography on them?

  • Brian

    fWAR>bWAR. Agree?

    • YankeesJunkie

      Yes!

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

      For hitters or pitchers?

      • YankeesJunkie

        For me it is both. wOBA is more accurate representation of offensive ability, FIP is more accurate representation of pitching ability. I will concede that fielding is still a fledgling science of baseball so I will count that as a toss up.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

          Yeah, I’d agree; I prefer fWAR in both ways, but I guess for pitchers it depends on what you think they’re responsible for and what not.

        • The BIG 3

          wOBA values walks too much (I prefer straight OPS because it appropriately values power, and OPS+ because it pretends to consider competition), and FIP is an aphrodisiac for those numskulls who believe pitchers pitch without purpose. They both suck. And you have been had. Sorry.

    • http://twitter.com/AnaMariana42 Ana

      quite so.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

      And, really, it’s not a matter of “better” since they calculate things a little differently. For pitchers, for example, fWAR uses FIP whereas bWAR uses RA.

    • first time lawng time

      This is why these stats confuse me. If it’s a statistic, shouldn’t it be uniform for each site or person who calculates it? I don’t understand why it’s different.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Didn’t you ask that question before, and already get a perfectly satisfactory answer?

        • first time lawng time

          No, I haven’t asked that question.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            My bad, it was other people.

            Here, peruse this exchange and enlighten yourself.

            Mr. Sparkle says:
            August 23, 2010 at 2:16 pm

            Once again, WAR is a number containing flaws just as any other stat. I didn’t even realize two different sites had two different formulas for computing WAR. That makes it even less valuable in my book. There’s only one way to compute OPS, batting average, etc. That says something about the classics.

            tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder says:
            August 23, 2010 at 2:25 pm

            “That says something about the classics.”

            It says that they’re simple. It doesn’t say anything other than that. Simple is neither necessarily good or necessarily bad, it’s just simple.

            The same is true of complex, BTW.

            Pete says:
            August 23, 2010 at 3:47 pm

            That. OPS is simple, but it tells less than wOBA.

            The more a statistic attempts to do, the more room for error within the stat. Compound statistics attempt to weight events based on historically averaged statistical significances. Doing so almost inevitably means ignoring pertinent information (either intentionally because of an inability to make use of the information or simply due to the relatively limited perspicacity of the human minds synthesizing the stats), which means that the weighting system will be flawed.

            Having said that, if you’re asked to compare twenty players based on nothing more than simple, inarguable stats – even the decent ones like BA/OBP/SLG/SB/CS/RF, etc., how are you going to do it without a way of weighting the stats you are given? Inevitably, you’ll weight them in your head based on your own perception of how significant certain things are relative to others. And I can guarantee you that the flawed weights based on 50+ years worth of collected data are MUCH more accurate than the haphazard biases of your own mind.

            Pete says:
            August 23, 2010 at 3:39 pm

            WAR is an idea. WAR itself is not a statistic. fWAR is a statistic. bWAR is a statistic. They use different formulae to calculate their values. Fangraphs uses its own defensive stat, UZR. BB-R uses TZ. Their pitching evaluation is different as well.

            None of that makes either statistic worthless. That BA and wOBA are almost always different numbers renders neither useless. fWAR and bWAR are no different. They share the name “Wins Above Replacement” because they attempt to do the same thing – discern a player’s “true value” to his team. Neither method of determining that value is perfect, which makes it all the more worthwhile to look at both, not neither. Or find a stat that is perfect, if that’s easier.

            (It isn’t).

            http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....nt-1056154

            • first time lawng time

              Oh okay. But Mr. Sparkle has a point. WAR is flawed in that there is no uniform way to calculate it, leaving discrepancies among player rankings. If there was a specific forumla or it was weighted the same, regardless of who is calculating it, it would be more valuable or reliable IMO.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                WAR is flawed in that there is no uniform way to calculate it, leaving discrepancies among player rankings.

                No.

                Cola is not flawed simply because there are multiple different companies that derive their own flavors of cola and put that cola into differing bottles and cans and call one Coca-Cola and one Pepsi-Cola.
                Videocassette recording was not flawed simply because there were VHS and Betamax options available on the market simultaneously.

                WAR may be confusing because there’s no uniform, settled way of compiling or quantifying it, but confusing and flawed are not identical concepts. WAR is a theoretical concept to describe a player’s total contributions over a replacement player. That theoretical concept is sound. The specific inputs used to arrive at that concept are still subject of scientific debate. Eventually, a consensus will arise. Even before that consensus happens, though, both fWAR and bWAR are perfectly acceptable and useful statistical expressions of a sound theoretical concept.

                • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

                  A Betamax reference. Wow. Wanna drop a Laser Disc reference, too?

                  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                    Fun Fact: My parents rented a LaserDisc player once. I watched “The World According To Garp” on said LaserDisc player.

                    I had no idea what the hell was going on, but there was nudity. It was a win.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Or, try this exchange:

            ———————–

            Tim says:
            August 18, 2010 at 1:44 pm

            Yes, I’d like to thank you, too. Not only for clarifying the different sources of WAR, but for pointing out the utter worthlessness of the statistic by showing that wherever you look, you get a different value. Statistics are supposed to be black and white – how else can you benchmark performance vs. other current players and/or players from the past? Instead, we get new-fangled statistics that are different depending on whose criteria you use to calculate them.

            tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder says:
            August 18, 2010 at 2:00 pm

            “Statistics are supposed to be black and white – how else can you benchmark performance vs. other current players and/or players from the past?”

            True.

            “I’d like to thank you… for pointing out the utter worthlessness of the statistic by showing that wherever you look, you get a different value.”

            False. The fact that there’s debate in the sabermetric community as to how WAR should be calculated and what component stats should be included doesn’t mean the statistics are worthless. The Metric system and the Avoirdupois systems are two different frameworks for measuring and evaluating weight. The fact that different people use different measuring systems to see how heavy something is doesn’t mean the measurements they obtain are worthless. The problem with bWAR and fWAR isn’t that they’re different, it’s simply that they currently have similar names so they are confusing. Both statistics have value and are worthwhile, though, not worthless.

            It would be nice for the sabermetric community to reach a consensus and roll with it, but even before that happens, bWAR and fWAR and stWAR are all still useful stats that help us determine player value.

            http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....nt-1045183

        • first time lawng time

          No, I haven’t asked that question. fWAR and bWAR both measure wins above replacement, correct? Well, doesn’t fWAR cone from one site while bWAR come from another? If they both measure the same stat, then shouldn’t they be the same, regardless of which site you find the information?

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

        They are different because their creators think pitchers should be held responsible for different things or that batters should be judged differently.

      • Brian

        Statistics can’t wear uniforms.

    • Pat D

      At least bWAR has data for all players, unlike fWAR.

      But fWAR ranks Winfield better, so…

      • first time lawng time

        This is exactly my point. Why does fWAR rank Winfield better than bWAR? WAR is WAR, so Winfield should be ranked the same no matter where you find the statitics.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

          bWAR and fWAR are calculated using different offensive metrics, that’s why.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Why does fWAR rank Winfield better than bWAR? WAR is WAR, so Winfield should be ranked the same no matter where you find the statitics.

          Rulers are rulers, but some of them have inches on them and some of them have centimeters. They both measure length, they just do it on different scales.

        • first time lawng time

          Okay. Thankyou TSJC and Matt Imbrogno. I didn’t realize they used different scales.

          • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

            Same goes for pitching. fWAR uses FIP and bWAR = RA.

            • first time lawng time

              Cool. Thanks.

    • A-Rod’s Wingman

      No, not at all some pitchers can outmatch their FIP as a skill, and if were counting value and how manu runs a pitcher actually prevented bWAR is superior.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        I thought you changed back to Jimmy McNulty?

  • http://yankeesfansunite.wordpress.com/ Matt

    Hopefully the Red Sox lose tonight and the Yankees take two tomorrow.

    • Brian

      Those five straight walks that Benedict Aceves gave up might help.

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Hopefully the Red Sox lose every game for the rest of the season and the Yankees win every game for the rest of the season.

      • http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama

        Sounds okay to me.

  • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

    Would you trade Andrew Brackman for Andrew Miller?

    • Levi

      No. Brackman could still turn into a decent starting pitcher and if not still a decent power bullpen arm. Miller’s got a FIP close to 5 in 300 major league innings. He’s decidedly replacement level. I could see the Sox trying him in the bullpen, but at least right now Brackman has the chance to be a successful starter.

      • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

        They are the same age, and have almost the same minor league experience. Miller was better than Brackman in the minors, and happens to be lefty. Miller has been a total disaster in the majors, but lefties often develop later. Going forward I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Miller is better. Putting contracts and control aside, I’d think long and hard about making that trade.

        • Levi

          Fair points. If I had to bet, I don’t think I’d expect either one to become a “star player”. If I were to put money on their most likely outcomes, I’d put Brackman in the same realm as D-Rob (decent late inning relief, nothing spectacular) and Miller as a 5/6 starter or long man in the bullpen. Since Miller has mostly proven he’s nothing more than a replacement level pitcher at the major league level, I’ll take the guy who’s still developing.

          • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

            Makes sense to me. I can see it either way. I see Brackman in the bullpen as well (it may have already started). If that’s the case, Miller certainly has more upside, but not sure how likely he is to reach it.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Would you trade Andrew Brackman for Andrew Miller?

      Is the pope catholic and is Eric a pinko commie?????

      Of course u would

      Sincerely,
      SBGL

    • http://twitter.com/kschmidt2 Kiersten

      Name drop time because this is the closest I’ve been to knowing a Major Leaguer. My cousin’s best friend is married to Andrew Miller. And I was creepin her Facebook the other day and there was just a picture of them with Daniel Bard and his wife. Like baseball players were normal people.

      OK I’m done.

    • The BIG 3

      That’s a tough one. Because you asked though, I’ll say sure, no. They’re pretty much the same so why trade at all.

  • Cy Pettitte

    Ace walked 5 straight Padres with 2 outs. unforgivable. I no longer want you back.

  • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

    Jacoby Ellsbury is close to surpassing Josh Hamilton in the all-star game voting. Fucking Red Sox fan ballot stuffers.

    • Brian

      He actually deserves it, unlike Hamilton who missed a month :/. I believe Ellsbury is 3rd in AL outfielder WAR behind Bautista and Granderson.

      • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

        I know he deserves it, and that’s the worst part. I can’t stand that pesky little bastard.

        • Brian

          Although if Gardner can remain hot these next few weeks he could vault into that spot ;D.

    • YankeesJunkie

      Thankfully the Yankees have none of those!

      (cough Derek Jeter cough)

      • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

        Believe it or not, Asdrubal is creeping up on Jeter in the balloting. Who knew the Indians had fans?

        • jerrynyg

          Well I am a diehard Yankees fan (obviously), and I voted for Asdrubal Cabrera. He deserves to go.

          • http://twitter.com/aviatkin Avi Atkin

            Voting Jeter in is a running gag for the All Star game, get in on the joke. Then I get to be a jackass and defend him by listing all the gold gloves he’s won. I immensely enjoy it.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              He’s a leader and a born winner. You need guys like that on your AllStar team, because this time, it counts.

              • Pat D

                And because he’s a star, and I want to see stars in the All-Star game, dammit!

          • The BIG 3

            I don’t understand why choosing one year of bad Jeter for the AS game is a worse representation of the best in baseball than a couple of guys enjoying career years, producing for maybe their first and only times ever. It’s almost as if you believe Jeter is as bad as his last year, which simply will not prove to be true. Or at least I doubt it will.

            • Pat D

              Sounds like something KLaw once said.

              I get your point, but at the same time, knowing how many players there are, I don’t think it’s wrong to reward a guy having a career year, since he may never get the chance again.

    • Brian

      But on to a larger point: It’s obvious that New York, Boston, and Texas fans are just votiong for their players and disregarding all others if you look at who is in line to make the all-star game. It’s a shame that players such as Alexi Ramirez, Ben Zobrist, Denard Span, Alex Avila, etc. won’t be starting because their teams don’t have as many fans or as good of a coordinated campaign.

      • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

        You forgot to mention Paul Konerko.

        http://m.bbref.com/m?p=XXplaye.....pa01.shtml

        He’s been hitting just as well as Adrian and Tex yet has less all-star votes than Mitch Moreland. MITCH MORELAND!

      • CP

        Eh… if you want your players on the team, then vote for them. If your team doesn’t have enough fans, find a better team.

        I know some people really get worked up over this, but to me it’s just an exhibition so who really cares?

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          ZOMG THIS TIME IT COUNTZ

        • Brian

          Home field advantage matters.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            No, not really.

            • Brian

              2001 World Series…

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                A statistical outlier.

                • YankeesJunkie

                  Once the series get the Game 7 home field advantage is important. Increases your chances to win by 5% or so.

                  • Brian

                    Glad I’m not the only one who thinks so. I thought I was about to be tarred and feathered!

                  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                    From my linked article below:

                    Advocates for pushing hard down the stretch for home-field advantage will cite examples of series that went to a seventh game, such as the 2008 ALCS between the Rays and Red Sox, won by the Rays in a decisive final match. However, the Rays also had home-field advantage for Game Six in that series…and lost. History shows that home-field advantage in a decisive game is a small contraindicator of who will win. Since 1998, 19 postseason series, 23 percent of the total, have gone down to the wire. In those 19 do-or-die games, the home team is 9-10, or slightly worse than you would expect heads to play against tails. We remember the 2002 Angels or the 2001 Diamondbacks, the latter of whom won two decisive contests at home, but we forget the times when, say the 2004 Red Sox or 2003 Marlins won not just Game Seven, but Game Six as well on the road.

                  • CP

                    By my count, 13 of the 42 World Series since they went to multiple playoff rounds have gone 7 games. So that’s 25%.

                    Assuming that the team with home field advantage gets a 5% advantage in game 7, then you’re looking at about a 1% overall advantage for the team that has home field advantage.

                    That means one World Series has been determined by home field advantage.

                    I vote 1960:
                    http://www.baseball-reference......0_WS.shtml

                    The Pirates were outscored 55-27 in that series. That run differential should equate to a roughly 80% win percentage for the Yankees.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder
                • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

                  Doesn’t home field advantage have to play a factor in the World Series though? If you build a team for AL baseball and get the extra game with the DH, it would have to play a role. Postseason in general HF may not play a role, but in the WS it makes sense. Hypothetically if the Sox made the World Series, it’s a huge difference if you lose Papi’s bat for 4 games vs. losing it for 3 games.

                  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                    I’m sure it does play a factor, but that factor is (as stated above) pretty small. Like, less than a single percentage point small.

                    Not worth worrying about.

                    • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

                      That includes DS and CS games though, so I don’t think it’s a clean look.

                  • The BIG 3

                    I agree with that. Boston, moreso than any other potential playoff team faces a disadvantage at an NL stadium simply because their best batter is benched. Or playing 1st base while Gonzalez benched. Either way, it’s hurtful.

              • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

                The fact that each team won every game at home has nothing to do with the ballparks they played in. The Arizona Diamondbacks should’ve won games 4 and 5 in YS, while the Yankees should have won game 7 at Bank One Ballpark. But all those ninth inning rallies changed that. The problem with saying that though is that those are baseless assumptions, just like saying that having home field advantage actually helps you win a series.

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  Home field advantage is largely confirmation bias.

                  • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

                    True dat. The Yankees had home field advantage in the 2003 World Series. Need I say more?

      • Tom Swift

        It would be fairer if fans could not vote for the home town team. But the ASG is not about the best players, it’s about who is popular. It’s like high school.

    • http://twitter.com/Bismarck1872 Jerome S.

      More importantly,

      Brett Gardner is no-where to be heard of.

      • Brian

        He’s actually not that far down!

        AL Outfield votes:
        Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 4,156,940
        Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 3,473,227
        Josh Hamilton, Rangers: 2,400,408
        Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 2,249,323
        Carl Crawford, Red Sox: 1,789,097
        Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: 1,537,101
        Nelson Cruz, Rangers: 1,462,426
        Nick Swisher, Yankees: 1,271,843
        Brett Gardner, Yankees: 1,120,179
        J.D. Drew, Red Sox: 1,112,720
        Matt Joyce, Rays: 1,038,098
        Jeff Francoeur, Royals: 906,983
        Grady Sizemore, Indians: 867,281
        David Murphy, Rangers: 785,630
        Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: 764,817

        Half of these names are laughable.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Shin-Sow Chao is only that far down the list because nobody knows how to pronounce his name.

          Sincerely,
          Ken Singleton

        • Hall and Nokes

          At this very moment in time, there are no less than 906,983 complete idiots walking this earth.

          • Foghorn Leghorn

            what does that say for the million plus that voted for drew?

        • http://twitter.com/Bismarck1872 Jerome S.

          Well considering that the ASG should be the best players from the past full year, some of that’s not so unreasonable. But Hamilton’s spent most of the past year injured, Crawford had a simply awful stretch (and was never THAT good to begin with), and Ichiro is Jetering (nee: Ripkening) his way onto the ballot.
          Also, Ellsbury is just unlikeable.

        • The BIG 3

          Considering the statement you responded to: “Brett Gardner is no-where to be heard of”, I think that list is fair. Well, except Swisher’s inclusion, but that’s one of those give-to-get thingies.

          I wouldn’t vote for Gardner with those others on the board though, regardless of some of the years a few are experiencing.

  • http://twitter.com/rebeccapbp Squishy Jello Person

    Hey guys, I’m starting a Question of the Day feature for my YDB columns…if you guys have any suggestions for topics/things to ask, I’m all ears =)

    • Jose the Satirist

      Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?

      • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

        ::head explodes::

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Are there any Paraguayans here? No?

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

      Look out tomorrow for a YDB name-drop on my post.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      I’d love to know what a typical day (if there is such a thing) is for a baseball GM, specifically Brian Cashman.

  • Jose the Satirist

    Is it pretty much sealed that McCourt is going to lose the team in a seizure by Selig? It seems like that Fox deal had to go through for him to keep the team and Selig nixed it.

    • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

      They should let Mark Cuban in their old boys club. They won’t, but they should.

      • Jose the Satirist

        I’d love for that to happen, but I just don’t see it.

      • CMP

        If you’re a Yankee fan, no way you’d want Cuban owning the Dodgers.

        He’d make them on par with the Yankees and Red Sox in no time flat.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Yeah, that. Good for baseball, bad for us.

          Personally, I love when the other rich owners are terminally stupid. (I’m looking at you, Fred Wilpon, Frank McCourt, Peter Angelos, and Jim Pohlad.)

          • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

            Jeffrey Loria?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Meh, he’s less “rich” and more “wealthy”.

              When all the owners go to the caviar bar together, Loria is the one who tries to duck out before the check arrives.

              • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                (And, so, yeah, I shouldn’t have put McCourt in my initial list. My bad.)

                • CP

                  I think I currently have more net worth than Frank McCourt.

                  And potentially the Wilpons (if they lose this lawsuit about the Madoff scheme).

            • Foghorn Leghorn

              Jack McKeon has old balls.

        • http://twitter.com/SteveH_MandAura Steve H

          Yeah, as a baseball fan I think it would be great. As a Yankees fan, not so much.

        • Hall and Nokes

          Who doesn’t like a little competition?

          He’d be refreshing.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Q: Who doesn’t like a little competition?

            A: For-profit businesses.

            • Pat D

              Commie.

  • Dale Mohorcic

    I haven’t lived in NY for 18 years now, but my9 (which I still think of as WWOR) will always be a second rate junk station fit only to broadcast reruns of suddenly susan, Roland smith without the ‘stache local news and mets games. Yanks should be back on WPIX. That’s what will lift the curse and send them back to Shocktober.

    • tom

      It is weird, for those of us with some mileage, who remember when the Mets were on 9 (WOR) and the Yanks 11 (PIX). You could imagine them going various other places, but to end up a complete swap seems unlikely — as if the world turned upside down.

      Luckily, the Yankees are still mostly good and the Mets still mostly suck, so there are some constants in the world.

    • Hall and Nokes

      Not a fan of Morton Downey Jr?

      • Pat D

        Roddy Piper dealt with him appropriately at WrestleMania V.

  • CP

    Can someone please help me out with the wOBA calculation. I had a question last week, in this post about Swisher:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2011/.....her-49814/

    Joe made this comment:

    We can see this in last year’s numbers, when Swisher had an OBP 12 points lower than in 2009. Despite that, and despite a lower ISO, he still managed a higher wOBA. That’s because league-wide production dropped, as you can see in the average wOBA.

    I still don’t understand why wOBA would go up if the overall offense in the league goes down. My understanding is that wOBA is essentially a measure of the runs produced per at bat. In a lower run scoring environment each run is worth more wins, but I don’t understand why a single would be worth more runs. If anything, it should be worth fewer runs (since there is less likely to be someone on base or someone behind you to drive you in).

    Am I missing the point on the wOBA calculation?

    • YankeesJunkie

      wOBA is first calculated on a raw basis with the same formula. You can find this if you look (fairly easily) and it adjusted to a league average .330 and the adjustment is higher or lower depending on how good offenses are during the year.

      • CP

        My understanding is that it’s not adjusted to make league average .330, but instead adjusted by a fixed factor of 1.15 – which generally brings the league average to around .330-.340.

    • CMP

      I thought “wOBA” was the spanish pronunciation of “Joba” or maybe I’m thinking of “Yoba.”

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        I believe it’s pronounced “yogging”, or “jogging”. It might be a soft J. I’m not sure, but apparently you just run for an extended period of time. It’s supposed to be wild.

        • Pat D

          You’re going to miss the pancake breakfast.

      • Brian

        I vote this as racist.

    • http://twitter.com/Bismarck1872 Jerome S.

      Less runs means each thing matters more?

      Unsure.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      First off, wOBA is a linear weight formula presented as a rate statistic scaled to On Base Percentage. Essentially, what that means is that average wOBA will always equal average OBP for any given year. If you know what the league’s OBP is, you know what the league’s wOBA is. Usually, league average falls in the .335 range – it was .332 last year, but offense was down around the game in 2008, which may or may not continue.

      Second paragraph in the best site of baseball sabermetrics in their wOBA article.
      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....y-of-woba/

      • CP

        I am well aware of fangraphs, but that still doesn’t answer my question:

        Why would a person (for example) with 100 singles in 300 PA have a higher wOBA in a year when league offense is down?

        There are a couple of pieces that are moving in the wOBA calculation when league offense is down. First, the individual components will be down (i.e. fewer hits, walks, etc). That will make the initial calculation for the league average lower. Then, there may (or may not) be a need to change the scaling factor to bring league average wOBA in line with league average OBP. For example, if the league OBP doesn’t drop but power numbers do (i.e. home runs become doubles) then the scaling factor would probably increase since the initial linear weights calculation would be smaller, but the target for league average wouldn’t be.

        Something would have to drive the linear weight components up when offense in the league is down (which I think is opposite to what should be happening) or the scaling factor would have to increase.

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    Ortiz just stole second…what the hell is going on in this world…up is down, down is up…

    • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

      YCPB

      I’ve been waiting to whip that one out for a while.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        I’ve been waiting to whip that one out for a while.

        /SheriffBart’d

        • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

          (Looks up Sheriff Bart on google. Understands reference.)

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            (Looks up Sheriff Bart on google. Understands reference.)

            :: head explodes ::

            /FTLT’d

            • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

              well played Mauer

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Matt Imbrogno

          Baby….you are so good. And they are so DUMB!

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Bart: Well, Jim, since you are my guest and I am your host, what’s your pleasure? What do you like to do?
            Jim: Oh, I don’t know. Play chess… screw…
            Bart: Let’s play chess.

      • Foghorn Leghorn

        Oh my goodness gracious no…

  • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7
    • mbonzo

      He’s such an attention whore I don’t believe this.

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    that Adrian Gonzalez seems like a nice guy but I really hate his guts.

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    Brian Cashman, teenage baseball player:

    http://www.cuatower.com/polopo.....341563.jpg

    Awwwwww woook at cute widdle Cash! In dah widdle baseball uniform!

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....te-player/

    Elite. Better than Cano. Equal to A-Gon. Braun can’t hold his jock.

    • mbonzo

      But he can’t hit lefties!

      • JobaWockeeZ

        Okay, great. It’s still true.

      • Brian

        No you’re thinking of Granderson.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      If anyone wants to start their franchise with Gardner rather then Cano, A-Gon and Braun be my guest.

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

        Yeah. I’d imagine his offensive value would be less if not for the context of the Yankee lineup around him, but most of his value is tied up in his defense and that plays anywhere.

        I don’t know about starting a franchise, but I wouldn’t mind starting a lineup with him :-)

    • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ John Kruk

      I strongly disagree on the basis that advanced stats are for nerds who live and their mother’s basement and that only former players can say who’s “elite” and who’s not.

  • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ John Kruk

    San Diego retakes the lead!

    • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

      shit I forgot to change my handle back to normal

    • Foghorn Leghorn

      Whales Vagina 5, Boston Ball suckers 4

  • jon

    just came back from the portland seadogs game

    dellin betances stunk the place up though hes defense gave him no favors

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....z1OJbnKLAH

    Hmmmmm….I seemed to have missed this story a few weeks ago. The Yanks seem to specialize in offensive catchers with attitude problems that quit on their respective teams.

  • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

    So I’m guessing we won’t be seeing any Madison Bumgarner trade proposals anytime soon. His performance tonight…

    single
    double
    single
    double
    single
    double
    single
    double
    strike out (pitcher)
    double
    pulled

    • Foghorn Leghorn

      that’s pretty sucky.

    • mbonzo

      Stupid pitcher ruined his rhythm.

    • Pat D

      That’ll bring his ERA back in line with his W-L record.

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    Papelbon is back already? that was quick…i really enjoyed the two days without that dingbat in the league.

  • nsalem

    ‘m looking forward to the return of Hughes, but I think there is a vast difference between peoples expectations of him and the reality of his actual performance in his career as as tarting pitcher. Yes he was excellent in the first half of last year and he should be given a pass on his short stint this year. I hope he returns to his first half 2010 form. It should be noted though that besides early 2010 and September 2007 his history as a starter has been shaky at best. I am not overly optimistic about him and I hope I’m wrong. On a happy note Sox finally lost.

    • MikeD

      I think most fans excitement regarding Hughes is they view him as someone who could potentially help the Yankees right now and he could be as good, and with more upside, than anything we can get via trade. Hughes most likely pitched over his ability in the first half, and most likely under the second. I’ll take what he gave us overall.

      Many may have written him off this year, so to hear he was throwing in the low 90s again and hit 95 gives hope. Expectations? Mine are moderate. The over-reliance on his cutter and his inability to put away hitters after he gets two strikes on him remain a concern. Yet he’s perhaps one adjustment away from taking a big step forward. That’s reason enough to be excited.

  • http://johnsterling.blogspot.com/ Xstar7

    Red Sox fans have a knack for catching baseballs with cups full of beer: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday.....mode=video

    I’m ecstatic that the Padres actually beat the Sox after they rolled over for them yesterday.

  • Greg

    Currently watching Tigers Dodgers on MLB Network with VIn Scully at the mike. Just calls the game and shows no bias. Take notes ESPN.

    • MikeD

      I was always kind of surprised that they never added another announcer to the booth with Scully, as they do when he does national games.

    • Pat D

      Would love to hear him call the World Series this year, especially since it’s his last year.

      But there’s no way that Fox would supplant BuckCarver.

      Yet I dream. I but dream.