Jun
21

Open Thread: The My9 Curse

By

(Photo Credit: Flickr user prozaciswack via Creative Commons license)

Is it just me, or is every game broadcast on My9 somehow impacted by rain? And not just this year either, it seems like this has been happening since the dawn of time the YES Network. The Yankees and Reds are going to play two games tomorrow, New York’s first of at least three double headers this season. They also have two games scheduled for July 30th and August 27th, both against the Orioles to make up some April rain outs. The good news is that they have Thursday off, so the bullpen shouldn’t get too wrecked tomorrow.

Anyway, we’re left without baseball tonight, or at least baseball we care about. Here’s your open thread, which you can use to talk about the A’s and Mets (Outman vs. Gee), whatever game they show on MLB Network, the College World Series (South Carolina vs. Virginia, 7:30pm ET on ESPN, not an elimination game), or whatever your heart desires. You all know what to do, so have at it.

Categories : Open Thread

190 Comments»

  1. 28 this year says:

    With the starters being Garcia and Gordon, you think the Yankees have someone ready in case they need another pitcher for the second game?

  2. first time lawng time says:

    Do the Red Sox ever lose anymore? Seriously, it’s disgusting.

    • Xstar7 says:

      The White Sox whooped the Red Sox’s asses the other week.

    • Jerome S. says:

      I honestly don’t remember the last time that they lost. There’s no doubt, they’re on a roll. But they can’t sustain this – someone’s gotta get hurt, or they’ll hit a stretch of bad luck, or the rotation will have a bad turn. But right now, it’s painful – and don’t expect them to report when they do lose.

    • MikeD says:

      It’s not going to be pretty for a while with the Red Sox, meaning as a Yankee fan expect them to keep winning lots of games. They’re in interleague play right now and they’ve overall drawn the easiest schedule, with the Pirates, Padres and Astros.

      If it’s any comfort, the Sox were leading in 2009 through interleague. They started falling apart once they had to only play AL teams.

      They’ll slow down, but not during interleague.

  3. Stratman9652 says:

    Will tomorrow’s games be aired on my9 or YES?

  4. first time lawng time says:

    What’s the deal with Montero? I think he should come up now.

  5. first time lawng time says:

    Just for clarification, is FIP read the same way one would read or interpret ERA?

  6. Dirty Pena says:

    My9, or whoever’s decision it was to not include My9 games on the “Yankees on YES” internet package (despite it being a YES-run operation) can go fuck themselves.

  7. Levi says:

    On the topic of FIP, there’s a discrepancy between Manny Banuelo’s FIP here (3.76) vs Fangraphs (4.11). His ERA is still the same both places though. I don’t mean to pick nits, just something I noticed.

  8. Brian says:

    I vote Garcia out of the rotation if Hughes comes back healthy and effective. Who’s with me?

    • This assumes that Gordon has already been displaced for Colon, correct?

      • Brian says:

        Yes. Garcia’s LD rate and LOB% scare the crap out of me.
        CC-Colon-AJ-Hughes-Nova going forward please.

      • Brian says:

        Also, now that you mention Colon, if he can stay healthy for the rest of the year should we offer him arbitration in the offseason? Could he replicate his newfound success next season? Would he qualify as a type A free agent? Am I asking too many questions?

        • As of right now, Colon doesn’t qualify for either Type A or Type B status. If I’m in charge, I probably just let Colon walk or try and sign him to a very cheap deal. I wouldn’t want to risk his health two years in a row.

        • if he can stay healthy for the rest of the year should we offer him arbitration in the offseason?

          What’s he making this year, 2M? Fuck and yes. He’d probably decline, too, and prefer unfettered free agency coming off such a good season.

          Could he replicate his newfound success next season?

          Stranger things have happened. If the price is right, I’ll gamble, sure.

          Would he qualify as a type A free agent?

          I can’t see how, he’s missed so much time.

          Am I asking too many questions?

          Dante: I thought the fat one didn’t talk that much.
          Randal: What am I, producing an A&E Biography on them?

  9. Brian says:

    fWAR>bWAR. Agree?

    • YankeesJunkie says:

      Yes!

    • For hitters or pitchers?

      • YankeesJunkie says:

        For me it is both. wOBA is more accurate representation of offensive ability, FIP is more accurate representation of pitching ability. I will concede that fielding is still a fledgling science of baseball so I will count that as a toss up.

        • Yeah, I’d agree; I prefer fWAR in both ways, but I guess for pitchers it depends on what you think they’re responsible for and what not.

        • The BIG 3 says:

          wOBA values walks too much (I prefer straight OPS because it appropriately values power, and OPS+ because it pretends to consider competition), and FIP is an aphrodisiac for those numskulls who believe pitchers pitch without purpose. They both suck. And you have been had. Sorry.

    • And, really, it’s not a matter of “better” since they calculate things a little differently. For pitchers, for example, fWAR uses FIP whereas bWAR uses RA.

    • first time lawng time says:

      This is why these stats confuse me. If it’s a statistic, shouldn’t it be uniform for each site or person who calculates it? I don’t understand why it’s different.

      • Didn’t you ask that question before, and already get a perfectly satisfactory answer?

        • first time lawng time says:

          No, I haven’t asked that question.

          • My bad, it was other people.

            Here, peruse this exchange and enlighten yourself.

            Mr. Sparkle says:
            August 23, 2010 at 2:16 pm

            Once again, WAR is a number containing flaws just as any other stat. I didn’t even realize two different sites had two different formulas for computing WAR. That makes it even less valuable in my book. There’s only one way to compute OPS, batting average, etc. That says something about the classics.

            tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder says:
            August 23, 2010 at 2:25 pm

            “That says something about the classics.”

            It says that they’re simple. It doesn’t say anything other than that. Simple is neither necessarily good or necessarily bad, it’s just simple.

            The same is true of complex, BTW.

            Pete says:
            August 23, 2010 at 3:47 pm

            That. OPS is simple, but it tells less than wOBA.

            The more a statistic attempts to do, the more room for error within the stat. Compound statistics attempt to weight events based on historically averaged statistical significances. Doing so almost inevitably means ignoring pertinent information (either intentionally because of an inability to make use of the information or simply due to the relatively limited perspicacity of the human minds synthesizing the stats), which means that the weighting system will be flawed.

            Having said that, if you’re asked to compare twenty players based on nothing more than simple, inarguable stats – even the decent ones like BA/OBP/SLG/SB/CS/RF, etc., how are you going to do it without a way of weighting the stats you are given? Inevitably, you’ll weight them in your head based on your own perception of how significant certain things are relative to others. And I can guarantee you that the flawed weights based on 50+ years worth of collected data are MUCH more accurate than the haphazard biases of your own mind.

            Pete says:
            August 23, 2010 at 3:39 pm

            WAR is an idea. WAR itself is not a statistic. fWAR is a statistic. bWAR is a statistic. They use different formulae to calculate their values. Fangraphs uses its own defensive stat, UZR. BB-R uses TZ. Their pitching evaluation is different as well.

            None of that makes either statistic worthless. That BA and wOBA are almost always different numbers renders neither useless. fWAR and bWAR are no different. They share the name “Wins Above Replacement” because they attempt to do the same thing – discern a player’s “true value” to his team. Neither method of determining that value is perfect, which makes it all the more worthwhile to look at both, not neither. Or find a stat that is perfect, if that’s easier.

            (It isn’t).

            http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....nt-1056154

            • first time lawng time says:

              Oh okay. But Mr. Sparkle has a point. WAR is flawed in that there is no uniform way to calculate it, leaving discrepancies among player rankings. If there was a specific forumla or it was weighted the same, regardless of who is calculating it, it would be more valuable or reliable IMO.

              • WAR is flawed in that there is no uniform way to calculate it, leaving discrepancies among player rankings.

                No.

                Cola is not flawed simply because there are multiple different companies that derive their own flavors of cola and put that cola into differing bottles and cans and call one Coca-Cola and one Pepsi-Cola.
                Videocassette recording was not flawed simply because there were VHS and Betamax options available on the market simultaneously.

                WAR may be confusing because there’s no uniform, settled way of compiling or quantifying it, but confusing and flawed are not identical concepts. WAR is a theoretical concept to describe a player’s total contributions over a replacement player. That theoretical concept is sound. The specific inputs used to arrive at that concept are still subject of scientific debate. Eventually, a consensus will arise. Even before that consensus happens, though, both fWAR and bWAR are perfectly acceptable and useful statistical expressions of a sound theoretical concept.

          • Or, try this exchange:

            ———————–

            Tim says:
            August 18, 2010 at 1:44 pm

            Yes, I’d like to thank you, too. Not only for clarifying the different sources of WAR, but for pointing out the utter worthlessness of the statistic by showing that wherever you look, you get a different value. Statistics are supposed to be black and white – how else can you benchmark performance vs. other current players and/or players from the past? Instead, we get new-fangled statistics that are different depending on whose criteria you use to calculate them.

            tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder says:
            August 18, 2010 at 2:00 pm

            “Statistics are supposed to be black and white – how else can you benchmark performance vs. other current players and/or players from the past?”

            True.

            “I’d like to thank you… for pointing out the utter worthlessness of the statistic by showing that wherever you look, you get a different value.”

            False. The fact that there’s debate in the sabermetric community as to how WAR should be calculated and what component stats should be included doesn’t mean the statistics are worthless. The Metric system and the Avoirdupois systems are two different frameworks for measuring and evaluating weight. The fact that different people use different measuring systems to see how heavy something is doesn’t mean the measurements they obtain are worthless. The problem with bWAR and fWAR isn’t that they’re different, it’s simply that they currently have similar names so they are confusing. Both statistics have value and are worthwhile, though, not worthless.

            It would be nice for the sabermetric community to reach a consensus and roll with it, but even before that happens, bWAR and fWAR and stWAR are all still useful stats that help us determine player value.

            http://riveraveblues.com/2010/.....nt-1045183

        • first time lawng time says:

          No, I haven’t asked that question. fWAR and bWAR both measure wins above replacement, correct? Well, doesn’t fWAR cone from one site while bWAR come from another? If they both measure the same stat, then shouldn’t they be the same, regardless of which site you find the information?

      • They are different because their creators think pitchers should be held responsible for different things or that batters should be judged differently.

      • Brian says:

        Statistics can’t wear uniforms.

    • Pat D says:

      At least bWAR has data for all players, unlike fWAR.

      But fWAR ranks Winfield better, so…

    • A-Rod's Wingman says:

      No, not at all some pitchers can outmatch their FIP as a skill, and if were counting value and how manu runs a pitcher actually prevented bWAR is superior.

  10. Matt says:

    Hopefully the Red Sox lose tonight and the Yankees take two tomorrow.

  11. Steve H says:

    Would you trade Andrew Brackman for Andrew Miller?

    • Levi says:

      No. Brackman could still turn into a decent starting pitcher and if not still a decent power bullpen arm. Miller’s got a FIP close to 5 in 300 major league innings. He’s decidedly replacement level. I could see the Sox trying him in the bullpen, but at least right now Brackman has the chance to be a successful starter.

      • Steve H says:

        They are the same age, and have almost the same minor league experience. Miller was better than Brackman in the minors, and happens to be lefty. Miller has been a total disaster in the majors, but lefties often develop later. Going forward I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Miller is better. Putting contracts and control aside, I’d think long and hard about making that trade.

        • Levi says:

          Fair points. If I had to bet, I don’t think I’d expect either one to become a “star player”. If I were to put money on their most likely outcomes, I’d put Brackman in the same realm as D-Rob (decent late inning relief, nothing spectacular) and Miller as a 5/6 starter or long man in the bullpen. Since Miller has mostly proven he’s nothing more than a replacement level pitcher at the major league level, I’ll take the guy who’s still developing.

          • Steve H says:

            Makes sense to me. I can see it either way. I see Brackman in the bullpen as well (it may have already started). If that’s the case, Miller certainly has more upside, but not sure how likely he is to reach it.

    • Would you trade Andrew Brackman for Andrew Miller?

      Is the pope catholic and is Eric a pinko commie?????

      Of course u would

      Sincerely,
      SBGL

    • Kiersten says:

      Name drop time because this is the closest I’ve been to knowing a Major Leaguer. My cousin’s best friend is married to Andrew Miller. And I was creepin her Facebook the other day and there was just a picture of them with Daniel Bard and his wife. Like baseball players were normal people.

      OK I’m done.

    • The BIG 3 says:

      That’s a tough one. Because you asked though, I’ll say sure, no. They’re pretty much the same so why trade at all.

  12. Cy Pettitte says:

    Ace walked 5 straight Padres with 2 outs. unforgivable. I no longer want you back.

  13. Xstar7 says:

    Jacoby Ellsbury is close to surpassing Josh Hamilton in the all-star game voting. Fucking Red Sox fan ballot stuffers.

    • Brian says:

      He actually deserves it, unlike Hamilton who missed a month :/. I believe Ellsbury is 3rd in AL outfielder WAR behind Bautista and Granderson.

    • YankeesJunkie says:

      Thankfully the Yankees have none of those!

      (cough Derek Jeter cough)

      • Xstar7 says:

        Believe it or not, Asdrubal is creeping up on Jeter in the balloting. Who knew the Indians had fans?

        • jerrynyg says:

          Well I am a diehard Yankees fan (obviously), and I voted for Asdrubal Cabrera. He deserves to go.

          • Avi Atkin says:

            Voting Jeter in is a running gag for the All Star game, get in on the joke. Then I get to be a jackass and defend him by listing all the gold gloves he’s won. I immensely enjoy it.

          • The BIG 3 says:

            I don’t understand why choosing one year of bad Jeter for the AS game is a worse representation of the best in baseball than a couple of guys enjoying career years, producing for maybe their first and only times ever. It’s almost as if you believe Jeter is as bad as his last year, which simply will not prove to be true. Or at least I doubt it will.

            • Pat D says:

              Sounds like something KLaw once said.

              I get your point, but at the same time, knowing how many players there are, I don’t think it’s wrong to reward a guy having a career year, since he may never get the chance again.

    • Brian says:

      But on to a larger point: It’s obvious that New York, Boston, and Texas fans are just votiong for their players and disregarding all others if you look at who is in line to make the all-star game. It’s a shame that players such as Alexi Ramirez, Ben Zobrist, Denard Span, Alex Avila, etc. won’t be starting because their teams don’t have as many fans or as good of a coordinated campaign.

    • Jerome S. says:

      More importantly,

      Brett Gardner is no-where to be heard of.

      • Brian says:

        He’s actually not that far down!

        AL Outfield votes:
        Jose Bautista, Blue Jays: 4,156,940
        Curtis Granderson, Yankees: 3,473,227
        Josh Hamilton, Rangers: 2,400,408
        Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox: 2,249,323
        Carl Crawford, Red Sox: 1,789,097
        Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: 1,537,101
        Nelson Cruz, Rangers: 1,462,426
        Nick Swisher, Yankees: 1,271,843
        Brett Gardner, Yankees: 1,120,179
        J.D. Drew, Red Sox: 1,112,720
        Matt Joyce, Rays: 1,038,098
        Jeff Francoeur, Royals: 906,983
        Grady Sizemore, Indians: 867,281
        David Murphy, Rangers: 785,630
        Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: 764,817

        Half of these names are laughable.

        • Shin-Sow Chao is only that far down the list because nobody knows how to pronounce his name.

          Sincerely,
          Ken Singleton

        • Hall and Nokes says:

          At this very moment in time, there are no less than 906,983 complete idiots walking this earth.

        • Jerome S. says:

          Well considering that the ASG should be the best players from the past full year, some of that’s not so unreasonable. But Hamilton’s spent most of the past year injured, Crawford had a simply awful stretch (and was never THAT good to begin with), and Ichiro is Jetering (nee: Ripkening) his way onto the ballot.
          Also, Ellsbury is just unlikeable.

        • The BIG 3 says:

          Considering the statement you responded to: “Brett Gardner is no-where to be heard of”, I think that list is fair. Well, except Swisher’s inclusion, but that’s one of those give-to-get thingies.

          I wouldn’t vote for Gardner with those others on the board though, regardless of some of the years a few are experiencing.

  14. Hey guys, I’m starting a Question of the Day feature for my YDB columns…if you guys have any suggestions for topics/things to ask, I’m all ears =)

  15. Jose the Satirist says:

    Is it pretty much sealed that McCourt is going to lose the team in a seizure by Selig? It seems like that Fox deal had to go through for him to keep the team and Selig nixed it.

  16. Dale Mohorcic says:

    I haven’t lived in NY for 18 years now, but my9 (which I still think of as WWOR) will always be a second rate junk station fit only to broadcast reruns of suddenly susan, Roland smith without the ‘stache local news and mets games. Yanks should be back on WPIX. That’s what will lift the curse and send them back to Shocktober.

    • tom says:

      It is weird, for those of us with some mileage, who remember when the Mets were on 9 (WOR) and the Yanks 11 (PIX). You could imagine them going various other places, but to end up a complete swap seems unlikely — as if the world turned upside down.

      Luckily, the Yankees are still mostly good and the Mets still mostly suck, so there are some constants in the world.

    • Hall and Nokes says:

      Not a fan of Morton Downey Jr?

  17. CP says:

    Can someone please help me out with the wOBA calculation. I had a question last week, in this post about Swisher:

    http://riveraveblues.com/2011/.....her-49814/

    Joe made this comment:

    We can see this in last year’s numbers, when Swisher had an OBP 12 points lower than in 2009. Despite that, and despite a lower ISO, he still managed a higher wOBA. That’s because league-wide production dropped, as you can see in the average wOBA.

    I still don’t understand why wOBA would go up if the overall offense in the league goes down. My understanding is that wOBA is essentially a measure of the runs produced per at bat. In a lower run scoring environment each run is worth more wins, but I don’t understand why a single would be worth more runs. If anything, it should be worth fewer runs (since there is less likely to be someone on base or someone behind you to drive you in).

    Am I missing the point on the wOBA calculation?

    • YankeesJunkie says:

      wOBA is first calculated on a raw basis with the same formula. You can find this if you look (fairly easily) and it adjusted to a league average .330 and the adjustment is higher or lower depending on how good offenses are during the year.

      • CP says:

        My understanding is that it’s not adjusted to make league average .330, but instead adjusted by a fixed factor of 1.15 – which generally brings the league average to around .330-.340.

    • CMP says:

      I thought “wOBA” was the spanish pronunciation of “Joba” or maybe I’m thinking of “Yoba.”

    • Jerome S. says:

      Less runs means each thing matters more?

      Unsure.

    • JobaWockeeZ says:

      First off, wOBA is a linear weight formula presented as a rate statistic scaled to On Base Percentage. Essentially, what that means is that average wOBA will always equal average OBP for any given year. If you know what the league’s OBP is, you know what the league’s wOBA is. Usually, league average falls in the .335 range – it was .332 last year, but offense was down around the game in 2008, which may or may not continue.

      Second paragraph in the best site of baseball sabermetrics in their wOBA article.
      http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....y-of-woba/

      • CP says:

        I am well aware of fangraphs, but that still doesn’t answer my question:

        Why would a person (for example) with 100 singles in 300 PA have a higher wOBA in a year when league offense is down?

        There are a couple of pieces that are moving in the wOBA calculation when league offense is down. First, the individual components will be down (i.e. fewer hits, walks, etc). That will make the initial calculation for the league average lower. Then, there may (or may not) be a need to change the scaling factor to bring league average wOBA in line with league average OBP. For example, if the league OBP doesn’t drop but power numbers do (i.e. home runs become doubles) then the scaling factor would probably increase since the initial linear weights calculation would be smaller, but the target for league average wouldn’t be.

        Something would have to drive the linear weight components up when offense in the league is down (which I think is opposite to what should be happening) or the scaling factor would have to increase.

  18. Foghorn Leghorn says:

    Ortiz just stole second…what the hell is going on in this world…up is down, down is up…

  19. Foghorn Leghorn says:

    that Adrian Gonzalez seems like a nice guy but I really hate his guts.

  20. Steve S. says:

    Brian Cashman, teenage baseball player:

    http://www.cuatower.com/polopo.....341563.jpg

    Awwwwww woook at cute widdle Cash! In dah widdle baseball uniform!

  21. Steve S. says:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....te-player/

    Elite. Better than Cano. Equal to A-Gon. Braun can’t hold his jock.

  22. John Kruk says:

    San Diego retakes the lead!

  23. jon says:

    just came back from the portland seadogs game

    dellin betances stunk the place up though hes defense gave him no favors

  24. Steve S. says:

    http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....z1OJbnKLAH

    Hmmmmm….I seemed to have missed this story a few weeks ago. The Yanks seem to specialize in offensive catchers with attitude problems that quit on their respective teams.

  25. Mike Axisa says:

    So I’m guessing we won’t be seeing any Madison Bumgarner trade proposals anytime soon. His performance tonight…

    single
    double
    single
    double
    single
    double
    single
    double
    strike out (pitcher)
    double
    pulled

  26. Foghorn Leghorn says:

    Papelbon is back already? that was quick…i really enjoyed the two days without that dingbat in the league.

  27. nsalem says:

    ‘m looking forward to the return of Hughes, but I think there is a vast difference between peoples expectations of him and the reality of his actual performance in his career as as tarting pitcher. Yes he was excellent in the first half of last year and he should be given a pass on his short stint this year. I hope he returns to his first half 2010 form. It should be noted though that besides early 2010 and September 2007 his history as a starter has been shaky at best. I am not overly optimistic about him and I hope I’m wrong. On a happy note Sox finally lost.

    • MikeD says:

      I think most fans excitement regarding Hughes is they view him as someone who could potentially help the Yankees right now and he could be as good, and with more upside, than anything we can get via trade. Hughes most likely pitched over his ability in the first half, and most likely under the second. I’ll take what he gave us overall.

      Many may have written him off this year, so to hear he was throwing in the low 90s again and hit 95 gives hope. Expectations? Mine are moderate. The over-reliance on his cutter and his inability to put away hitters after he gets two strikes on him remain a concern. Yet he’s perhaps one adjustment away from taking a big step forward. That’s reason enough to be excited.

  28. Xstar7 says:

    Red Sox fans have a knack for catching baseballs with cups full of beer: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday.....mode=video

    I’m ecstatic that the Padres actually beat the Sox after they rolled over for them yesterday.

  29. Greg says:

    Currently watching Tigers Dodgers on MLB Network with VIn Scully at the mike. Just calls the game and shows no bias. Take notes ESPN.

    • MikeD says:

      I was always kind of surprised that they never added another announcer to the booth with Scully, as they do when he does national games.

    • Pat D says:

      Would love to hear him call the World Series this year, especially since it’s his last year.

      But there’s no way that Fox would supplant BuckCarver.

      Yet I dream. I but dream.

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