Archive for June, 2011
Open Thread: Realignment
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I for one welcome the Astros' between innings entertainment to the AL. (Photo Credit: Flickr user AmandaD_TX via Creative Commons license)
Rumors of realignment have popped up over the weekend, focusing on the creation of two 15-team leagues. Let’s get the nuts and bolts of it from Buster Olney (Insider req’d)…
Sources familiar with the discussions to date say the talks are serious, and while one executive believes the odds of change are less than 50-50, another says this is the type of discussion that can gather momentum and become a reality. “It’s really important that the players are behind this,” he said.
There are details to work out, of course. Some on the ownership side would favor a division-less structure — that is to say, 15 teams in each league looking to survive to get to the postseason, in a structure similar to what was in place before 1969 — but some players indicated on Saturday night that the only internal discussions they’ve had center around three divisions of five teams in each league.
The Astros seem to be the obvious candidate to move from the NL over to the AL, taking one team away from the six-team NL Central while adding one to the four-team AL West. Plus it would create a geographic rivalry with the Texas. The problem is that two 15-team leagues would mean that interleague play will take place all year, otherwise one team in each league will be off each night. Apparently the top five teams in each league would make the playoffs, which is great in theory but still isn’t perfect because the schedule will presumably remain imbalanced. I’m not sure I love the idea, but I’m curious to know what everyone thinks.
Anyways, here’s the open thread for the night. The ESPN Sunday Night Game has the Reds at the Giants (Volquez vs. Sanchez), plus you’ve also got Game Six of the NBA Finals (8pm ET, ABC). You can also watch Yankees’ second round pick Sam Stafford pitch for Texas against 21st round pick Zach Wilson (he’s a first baseman) and Arizona State (7pm ET, ESPN2 and ESPN360.com). Winner advances to the College World Series. Talk about whatever, go nuts.
Montero not in Triple-A lineup (again)
Posted by: | CommentsUpdate (6:27pm): Via Erik Boland, Montero is out of the lineup because of the eye infection according to Brian Cashman. I can buy that, I had an eye infection about a year ago and that thing lingered like crazy. Still seems weird that they wouldn’t just come out and say that in the first place.
Original Post (4:22pm): Jesus Montero was again not in the lineup for Triple-A Scranton today, apparently because of a “manager’s decision.” He sat yesterday and it was described as a routine day off. I’m not quite sure a Triple-A manager has the authority to sit an organization’s top prospect for two straight days after he just missed four with an eye infection (he did start on Friday), so I think something’s up. Maybe it’s a discipline thing (he did pinch-hit yesterday), maybe he’s being traded, maybe he was still being considered for a call-up in case Russell Martin suffered a setback during this afternoon’s game. I really don’t know, but this is … weird.
Game 63: Roster Moves
Posted by: | CommentsAs expected, it was a busy morning in Yankeeland thanks to all the recent injuries. Bartolo Colon was predictably placed on the disabled list following the hamstring strain he suffered yesterday, though Joe Girardi said the MRI came back “pretty good.” I have no idea what that means, but Colon told reporters that he expects to be back after his 15 days are up. Holy cow, that would be awesome. Just please don’t rush it, the last thing the Yankees need is for him to have a setback and miss three months instead of three weeks. “I feel bad because the team needs help and I got hurt,” said Bartolo. Given all he’s done for this team already, he’s shouldn’t feel bad. Amaury Sanit was also placed on the disabled list with an elbow injury, the nature and extent of which is unknown.
Replacing those guys on the roster are Hector Noesi and Chris Dickerson. Since you can’t call a player back up for ten days after a demotion, they had to use the injuries to get these two back so quickly. There’s still no word on Thursday’s starter though. As I sit here on my perch of infinite wisdom, I think the best course of action would have been to start Noesi today. It’s his scheduled day to start for Triple-A Scranton, and it would give Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett, and CC Sabathia and extra day of rest while allowing Colon’s replacement to miss the Rangers next week. They’re killing the ball right now, so keeping a rookie away from them seems like a good idea. Maybe Noesi will throw multiple innings in relief today as a tuneup, then start Thursday. That’s pretty much the best case right now.
Anyway, both Russell Martin and Alex Rodriguez are in today’s lineup. Martin’s back is finally okay following his little weightlifting injury, and A-Rod‘s hip is fine after it stiffened up following that hit-by-pitch yesterday. So that’s pretty much it, hopefully they can get through today’s game healthy. Here’s the lineup…
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF
Freddy Garcia, SP
Today’s game can be seen on YES locally and on TBS nationally once it starts at 1pm ET. Enjoy.
The poor man’s Beltran
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday I examined Nick Swisher‘s unfortunate results from the left side of the plate and argued that he’s a likely candidate to do better in the coming year. I also mentioned that Carlos Beltran was a fan favorite as a trade target. You don’t need me to explain why he’s a favorite as a trade target, but I’ll do it anyway. Beltran has always played excellent defense, he’s a switch-hitter, and he hits for power. He’s the lifetime owner of a .371 wOBA, a .282/.359/.495 batting line, and 289 home runs. This year he’s doing a touch better with a .284/.371/.512 line, a .382 wOBA. He’s showing a bit more power despite coming off a serious knee injury and hitting half his games at Citi Field. As trade targets go, you really can’t do too much better than Carlos Beltran. He’s a free agent after this season and he’s doing his best to set himself up for another nice payday. It’s not like he exactly needs another payday, having pulled in $119M from the Mets over the past seven years, but hey, I’ve lived in New York. Life ain’t cheap.
Plenty of teams will be in on Beltran this summer. Plenty of teams could use a half-season rental of a switch-hitting, power-hitting good defender. The primary deterrent to acquiring Beltran is likely his steep salary, but the Mets have indicated that they’re willing to absorb some of that salary in exchange for better prospects. Now, this could simply be posturing to get more teams involved and extract more from interested parties, but it’s hard to know for sure. The Mets may have more financial flexibility now that they partnered with David Einhorn. They may not be an East Coast version of the Los Angeles Dodgers anymore – they may be able to eat some of his contract.
This is a long way of saying that this confluence of factors – Beltran’s skillset and the Mets’ flexibility of demands – may mean that another team snatches Beltran from Queens before the Yankees can get their sticky little fingers all over him. But the Yankees could find a decent replacement in Twins outfielder Jason Kubel.
All the stars are lining up for Kubel to get traded this summer: he’s on a losing team, he has a decent in-demand skillset, and he has an expiring contract after this year. Twins’ blog The Bat Shatters makes the case for keeping Kubel, and summarizes the arc of his career nicely:
Kubel destroyed Minor League pitching for 4 years before getting a shot at the bigs in 2004. He didn’t disappoint, hitting .300/.358/.433 as a 22-year-old in 23 games with the Twins. That fall, he endured a serious knee injury which kept him out of baseball for the entire 2005 season, and while he re-emerged with the Twins in 2006, the results were nothing like before. Kubel struggled for a couple of seasons in 2006 and 2007 before putting it all together in 2008. In ’08, he hit .272/.335/.471 with 20HRs and 78RBIs while seeing part-time action in the outfield. In 2009, he had his ‘breakout’ hitting .300/.369/.539 with 28HRs and 103 RBIs. In a contract-year last season, he only managed a .249 batting-average, but did surpass the 20 homerun plateau for the 3rd straight season while driving in 92 runs…
Over the last three years, Kubel has the 11th highest OPS (.883), the 11th highest batting average and the 8th most HRs against right-handers…among all of the outfielders in baseball. You won’t find his name on the WAR leaderboards, but that’s because his defense is so atrocious. If he was strictly in a DH role, his value would increase. Without Thome next year, the Twins will likely have an opening at DH, a role Kubel is familiar with and could probably excel in.
I’m not trying to make it sound like Kubel is a superstar player. He’s not. What I am trying to say is that Kubel, as a left-handed hitter with power, possesses an offensive skill-set that is not all that common in MLB, and is not easily replaceable if they trade him or let him go.
As Krueger notes, Kubel hits right-handed pitchers well, the type against whom Nick Swisher has struggled lately. Kubel is the owner of a career .286/.345/.499 line against right-handed pitchers. By way of comparison, Beltran is a career .293/.364/.529 hitter against right-handed pitchers. Kubel is playing for a paltry $5.25M this year, a far cry from Beltran’s hefty salary, and he’ll be a free agent when the season is done. He isn’t as good against left-handed pitchers (.664 OPS against), but if he’s deployed properly he could do some damage in the Yankee lineup and bop a few fly balls over that short porch in right.
Kubel may cost less than Beltran for an acquiring team (depending on how much money the Mets eat), and this is for good reason. He’s not as good in the field as Beltran, and he’s not capable of hitting left-handed pitchers nearly as well as Beltran can. But he’s not a scrub: he has a solid bat, he’s cheap, and he’s a free agent at the end of the year. He currently profiles as a Type B free agent, so the Yankees could offer him arbitration and pocket the picks if he declines. If he accepts it’s not the end of the world – he only makes $5.25M in 2011, and the Yankees could always trade him elsewhere.
As it stands right now the Yankees have the corner outfield and DH spots manned by capable hitters, and I’m not sold that the team needs to do anything in the trade market to bolster the offense. I’d far rather see them call up that kid in Scranton that everyone won’t shut up about. But if something changes – if Posada, Gardner or Swisher get injured, or if Montero is traded – then Kubel might be a good fit. If the Yankees are looking for another outfielder-DH-bench bat type with thump and don’t want to pay the high price likely commanded by the Mets for Beltran, they could do worse than Kubel.
Heredia, Turley strong at the lower levels
Posted by: | CommentsJesus Montero did not play for Triple-A Scranton, but apparently it was a routine day off (he actually coached first base, so it’s not an injury). Brian Cashman said he’s not being called up, but here’s my conspiracy theory: Montero’s coming up tomorrow if Russell Martin is not healthy enough to play. We’re pretty much at the point were Martin will have to go on the disabled list if he can’t catch, and they don’t want to risk Montero getting hurt tonight. Anyway, we’ll see.
Oh, and Brad Halsey has already been promoted from High-A Tampa to Double-A Trenton. That was quick, he just made his first appearance for Tampa last night. Kei Igawa moved up to Triple-A Scranton to fill the rotation spot of whoever comes up to replace Bartolo Colon.
Triple-A Scranton (3-2 loss to Syracuse)
Greg Golson, CF: 0 for 5, 1 K
Ramiro Pena, SS: 2 for 4, 1 2B, 1 K - ten for his last 36 (.278) with five walks and four whiffs
Jordan Parraz, RF: 0 for 3, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E (fielding)
Jorge Vazquez, 1B: 0 for 4, 3 K
Brandon Laird, DH: 2 for 4, 1 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI – 14 for his last 36 (.389) with four doubles and two homers
Kevin Russo, 3B: 2 for 4, 1 CS
Dan Brewer, LF: 1 for 4, 3 K, 1 SB
Luis Nunez, 2B: 1 for 3, 1 2B, 1 K
Jesus Montero, PH: 0 for 0, 1 BB – see? healthy enough to pinch-hit, though Doug Bernier pinch-ran for him
Gus Molina, C: 2 for 4 – > Frankie Cervelli?
D.J. Mitchell, RHP: 7 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 12-3 GB/FB – 66 of 116 pitches were strikes (56.9%) … is that enough to get him a spot start over Hector Noesi in place of Bartolo Colon? I don’t think so … he gave up two hits to a (pretty good) rehabbing big leaguer
Ryan Pope, RHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 0-2 GB/FB – eight of his 11 pitches were strikes … > Lance Pendleton or Jeff Marquez?
Open Thread: The Franchise Player Draft
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Cutch's got the whole Predator look going on. (Photo Credit: Flickr user Brock Fleeger via Creative Commons license)
A little over a week ago, I post something about ESPN’s Fantasy Player Draft, specifically the sheer absurdity of Wilson Ramos being taken 30th overall. This past week the FanGraphs writers did the same thing at the behest of the readers (contracts were a non-factor, it was all about talent), and the results were published last night. Evan Longoria and Troy Tulowitzki were predictably the top two picks, but Mike Trout was a major head scratcher at three. Why take a prospect when the guys you hope that prospect turns into are still on the board? Oh well, Carson Cistulli’s cool like that. Ryan Zimmerman and Joey Votto rounded out the top five.
I picked 15th and took Andrew McCutchen. Pitchers are too risky and I wanted a premium up-the-middle player. McCutchen has yet to turn 25 and does it all; he hits for average, draws walks, hits for power, steals bases, and plays a mean center field. Look at his FG player page and what he’s doing this season, it’s five-tool player porn. Joe picked two spots after me and grabbed Jay Bruce, a true power hitter still not in his prime at a time when power across the league is declining. Yeah, he plays a non-premium spot, but he plays it damn well and a case could be made that he’ll be the best hitting outfielder in baseball with a year or two. Jose Reyes was not picked even though everyone seemed to say they were considering him, and I’m kinda surprised Buster Posey didn’t go despite the injury. The only Yankee taken was Robinson Cano at 24. Who would you have taken if you had my pick? Joe’s? First overall?
Once you’re done with that, use this as your open thread for the evening. The Mets are playing the Pirates (Dickey vs. McDonald), and MLB Network will carry a game as well (teams depend on where you live). No basketball or hockey playoffs tonight, so that’s all you’ve got. Talk about whatever, enjoy.
Al, what makes CC so good?
Posted by: | CommentsFor Thursday’s Red Sox game, Michael Kay, Al Leiter, and Paul O’Neill were in the booth and Kay asked Leiter the title question. One of the things I love about the ever-changing Yankees booth is that you get a lot of different opinions and views on the game from the various ex-players that cycle through. I’m sure you all have your opinions on the best booth (I think Cone-Singleton wins it. Was Leiter there too?) but I love all the ex-player stories, and I love even more listening to how retired players view current ones. We get on certain announcers basing their opinions on players on intangibles, weak stats, and clutchness, but Leiter managed to avoid basically all of these things as he explained why Sabathia is such a great pitcher. He was insightful, comprehensive, and interesting. I want to see if he’s right. I’ll blockquote his words words here:
Yeah, you start with stuff…I think his ability to pound the zone, get ahead. He is somewhat unpredictable. He’s got the ability to have control on both side of the plate He’s aggressive. Delivery-wise, he stays closed….He’s a big man. He has good trajectory or downward plane, has an idea.
And now, for fact checking:
Sabathia pounds the zone: True. For his career, Sabathia has thrown 52.3% of all his pitches inside the zone, and 64% for strikes. In 2011, he’s right on the money with 65% strike percentage and 46.6% being in the zone. This also includes a career 60.4% first-pitch strike and a 59% in 2011.
Sabathia gets ahead in the count: Partially true. For his career, 3085 hitters have taken hacks when they’re behind to CC, and they’ve batted a worse-than-Jorge .190/.197/.276. Only 3027 hitters have hit when they’re ahead, and their .275/.441/.441 is decent at best. But the majority of hits and outs have been made with an even count. 3116 have done it, and they’ve hit .278/.283/.417. The first pitch strike lends to being ahead, though it doesn’t always work out that way.
He is unpredictable: True. Sabathia throws a fastball, a slider and a changeup. While the slider is usually his out pitch, everything looks the same coming out of his hand, and for his career he throws the same percentage of sliders and changeups (15.9%). Should you be looking for a changeup that averages around 85 MPH or a 80 MPH slider in the dirt? Good luck figuring that one out. You’ll need it.
He controls both sides of the plate. True. While Sabathia prefers to throw the fastball away to righties, he has absolutely no problem throwing it inside or throwing it for a strike. He also can throw it high or low for strikes, too. Here’s a heat map of Sabathia’s fastball vs righties in 2010 to prove it, with a more yellow area meaning more pitches were thrown to that area:

He’s aggressive: True. Aggressiveness is really a combination of a number of the other stats above. Sabathia throws strikes. A lot of strikes. He isn’t afraid to blow a pitch over the plate (just look at all that yellow in the middle!) and overwhelm a hitter. He usually doesn’t throw around batters, either.
Delivery-wise, he stays closed: Plausible. Without a stat to back this one up, we’re finally left to depend in our eyeballs. That Leiter started with the numbers things and moved slowly into observational notes was very cool to me. From what I know about studying a pitcher’s delivery (absolutely nothing), Sabathia’s always had a relatively simple delivery. He keeps it close to his chest. His release points stay the same. It’s not complex, it’s not violent, just a big man throwing a baseball.
He’s a big man: True. No comment.
He has good trajectory or downward plane: True. Considering the fact that CC is 6’7, I’d say he’s throwing down off the mound, yeah. Plus, his release is nice and high.
Has an idea: Plausible. What does this mean? I think it might have something to do with that Sabathia knows what pitches he’s going to throw. He has a plan about how each at-bat is going to go, or at least, knows how to change his approach based on the game, the hitter, and so forth. He’s reached that point in his career where he knows what’s good and what’s bad.
Like your baseball players, you don’t choose your announcers. Unfortunately, when your announcers are really bad, you can’t bench them or DFA them or anything. You’re stuck with them. Now, Kay isn’t the greatest announcer the world has ever known, but having Cone, Leiter, Singleton and Flaherty rotating up with him makes him a lot more bearable. And when the guy in the booth actually knows what they’re talking about, it’s pretty wonderful. I’m willing to bet Al Leiter knows just a little about what makes a good pitcher, and he totally nailed it here. Hooray for him.
Game 62: Back for more
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees needed last night’s game to remind everyone that they’re still one of the best teams in baseball, capable of laying beatdowns on any team at any time, regardless of how awful they looked a few days ago. The bullpen needs work, the offense is still inconsistent, the starting pitching can still be hit or miss, but you know what? Show me a team without similar problems and I’ll show you my two bridges for sale. Here’s the lineup that will hopefully continue the onslaught against Indians’ pitching…
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixiera, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Brett Gardner, LF
Frankie Cervelli, C
Bartolo Colon, SP
The weather isn’t great, but it looks like there will be enough of a window to get this game in (eventually). First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.
Injury News: Eric Chavez has started some light hitting drills, but he has not started to run yet. That’s kinda important … There’s a chance Rafael Soriano will begin throwing this week, but nothing is set in stone. Obviously, they need him.










