Jul
07

Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects

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Baseball America posted a midseason (half) update to their preseason top 100 prospects list, and you can see the list for free. You’ll need a subscription to see the analysis, however. Jesus Montero fell from number three overall to number eight, though they caution everyone to not “be swayed by [his] so-so first half, his hit/power tools are still the same.” Manny Banuelos jumps from number 41 to number 13 (“Was dominating in spring training, but stuff isn’t as firm now as it was”) and Dellin Betances from 43 to 26 (“Impressive stuff, but Betances rarely makes it look easy”). Gary Sanchez (preseason #30), Andrew Brackman (#73), and Austin Romine (#98) did not figure into the updated top 50.

BA also put together a stock up/down report (subs. req’d), with J.R. Murphy making the Stock Up section. “[Scouts] report he’s improved significantly on defense, as he threw out 27 percent of opposing baserunners and polished up his receiving. He’s still an offensive catcher, but he’s more of a catcher than ever before.” We’ve heard about the improved defense before. Brackman made the Stock Down section: “His fastball velocity remains inconsistent but has more consistently dipped into the average range … Brackman’s confidence has taken a hit, and scouts report he throws his curve when he most needs a strike.” One good, one not so good.

Categories : Asides, Minors
  • Foghorn Leghorn

    these prospects are as volatile as internet stocks

  • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

    Arodys at 16. I’m going to go cry in the corner now.

    We’ll always have, uh, Boone Logan.

    • The Fallen Phoenix

      And (comp pick) Dante!

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      19 Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Diamondbacks

      Repeated for emphasis.

      • CMP

        Doesn’t change the fact that the Cashman still should have and could have easily beaten that package for Haren.

        After all, he gave up a better prospect in Arodys Vizacaino for an older and far more shitty pitcher in Vasquez.

        • http://www.secondavenuesagas.com Benjamin Kabak

          He couldn’t have traded Vizcaino for Haren after trading him for Vazquez seven months early.

          • CMP

            I didn’t say he should have traded Vizcaino for Haren since Vizcaino was obviously already in the Braves system by last summer.
            I was comparing the 2 trades of which the Yankee gave away better players and received an older and inferior pitcher.

            Cashman could have come up with a comparable package to the Angels which was still a great trade for them even if Skaggs is a top prospect.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              And that comparable package probably would have required something along the ilk of Jesus Montero or Manny Banuelos or Arodys Vizcaino (were he still available). We can say that confidently because Skaggs, while a PBTNL, was an elite, top-level prospect at the time of the trade, a prospect on par with Montero and a clear tick above Banuelos (who was still just putting himself on the map at the time) and not a scrub.

              That’s the point of my comment; not that Cashman shouldn’t have parted with Montero/Banuelos/whatever else it cost to get Haren, just that the Haren deal is consistently mischaracterized as Haren for an awful shit-platter of nothingness that Cashman could have easily beaten with useless flotsam and jetsam like Sergio Mitre and Pat Venditte (and the concurrent thought process that Cashman is a moron for not making that Mitre/Venditte for Haren deal and beating an easily-beatable package).

              We don’t know what it really would have taken to beat the Skaggs-lead package that the DBacks did take, but we do know that it wasn’t a Saunders-lead package, it was a Skaggs-lead package. That’s my only point.

              • CMP

                The Haren deal was still a steal for the Angels even if Skaggs is a top 20 prospect.

                IMO, anyone other than ManBan including Joba could have packed their bags if it meant acquiring Haren who is a legitimate number 1 starter.

                He’s the kind of pitcher Cashman thought he getting when he flushed $85 million on Burnett.

                • Ted Nelson

                  The Angels didn’t just trade Skaggs. Skaggs was the rough equivalent of Manny. They also traded a passable young-ish LHSP from the AL. Basically something close to Joba at the time.

                  So… your point is that you wouldn’t have traded Manny for Skaggs, but all the evidence we have suggests it would have been necessary to trade Manny for Skaggs. The DBacks from 3 LHP for Haren. Manny was and is the Yankees only expendable LHP with much value.

                  Also worth noting that Haren became a #1 starter again, or maybe even for the first time, by developing a cutter. His FB velo had declined, and he was not a home run pick to recover. It wasn’t nearly as much of a no-brainer at the time as it’s become in hindsight.

              • CMP

                I forgot to say I agree with your point that Saunders was far from the centerpiece of that deal, however.

      • Slugger27

        Wouldnt his prospect rank at the time of the trade be more relevant? The trade wasn’t made today…

        At any rate, 3.5 years of team control for a below market dan haren is certainly worth much more than the no. 19 ranked prospect (even though he wasn’t no. 19 at the time)

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          The only reason he wasn’t ranked #19 at the time of the trade is because he was a recent draftee and many ranking services don’t rank draftees that soon. Skaggs was an elite prospect at the time of the trade, though.

          • Slugger27

            He was drafted in 2009, and the trade was made in july 2010. He had been a professional for a full year… I don’t know what he was ranked at the time of the trade, but I find it impossible to believe ranking services hadn’t released a ranking on him by july 2010

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              My bad, I forgot he was the year before. Still, Skaggs at the time of the trade had been 19 years old for all of a week and had a total of 92 professional innings to his credit. He was tons of potential and upside (as evidenced by being the 40th overall pick in the draft the year before) but still largely too unproven to show up in many prospect ranking Top 100′s. Doesn’t mean he wasn’t a top 100 talent at the time, though, he was just a “wait and see” like what Mike does with guys like Gary Sanchez.

              You were basically buying on spec, but it was a great spec buy. Skaggs in July 2010 would be like Nick Castellanos right now; he’s not good enough to make any Top 100, because he’s so young and hasn’t shown anything yet, but he can leap right into the top 25 a year later if he at all delivers on his immense promise.

          • Avi

            “Skaggs was an elite prospect at the time of the trade, though.”

            Flatly false. Skaggs didn’t crack BA’s top 100 prior to 2010 and was ranked 82nd prior to 2011. He was a grade B prospect at best at the time of the trade (in low class A as well).

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              An 18 year old, 6’4″ lefty who went 40th in the draft and who Callis described as “the most projectable high school lefty pitcher in the drfat class” is pretty much always an elite prospect, even if he’s too young/raw to chart in BA’s top 100.

              There’s a reason he leapt from nowhere into the top 20; the ranking sites were waiting to see if he was legit. He was.

              • Gonzo

                I’m late to this, but the Dbacks were heavily linked to Skaggs in the draft. They “loved” him and were upset that the Angels snagged him.

                He may not have been BA or KLaw top 50 at the time, but those rankings are backward looking anyway. Was his stuff radically different in July than September? Probably not enough for to say, “wow, what’s going on there!”. The familiarity just reinforces what they already knew and “loved” about him. They could have easily ranked him higher than Joba/Betances/even ManBan at the time because they knew him since before he was a pro.

  • Adam B.

    Banuelos jumped up a lot for that comment… interesting.

  • Frigidevil

    Harper’s an outfielder now? I thought he was a pitcher who wanted to hit so he played catcher.

    • Thomas Cassidy

      He was a catcher that wanted to catch, and how plays RF.

  • Jimmy McNulty

    Why couldn’t they have used Brackman instead of Arodys?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Because Atlanta would have said “No”.

      • Jimmy McNulty

        Really? Was Arodys more highly thought off than Brackman at the time? I forget, I know he was good last season, but before that I can’t really remember.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Brackman was a disaster in 2009.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Brackman may have had a higher prospect shine in 2007 after being a first rounder, but Arodys outpaced him pretty rapidly. Far fewer mechanical hiccups, much smaller bust potential.

          Brackman may have a higher ceiling, but he’s much, much less likely to sniff it (and always has been).

        • http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama

          Brackman had an AWFUL 2009

          • http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama

            and he’s actually been worse this year, looking :(

  • Foghorn Leghorn

    so where in the world is Casey Kelly? He began the year at #31 and is not on this list. He isn’t showing much at all in AA ball.

    My take is once you get past the top 10, the rest is a complete crapshoot.

    • Jorge

      Casey Kelly is #.9

      • http://bloodfarm.tumblr.com mattdamonwayans

        Might want to double check your math

        • Avi

          Yeah, there’s no casey kelly. So predictable.

        • CMP

          All prospects automatically drop about 50 places when they’re traded from the Red Sox.

          • The Big City of Dreams

            lol it’s funny because it’s true

  • Karl Krawfid

    Betances is touching 98-99 today.

  • Avi

    Anthony Ranaudo at #37. No Cito Culver.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      No Nick Castellanos either.

      • Avi

        I never let an opportunity to bash the Culver pick (and now the Bichette pick) pass me by.

        • Ted Nelson

          Are BA prospect rankings one year later the best way to judge draft picks?

  • Adam B.

    Dellin running roughshot through the opposing lineup tonight… 6.0 IP,4 H, 9 K!!!!, 2 BB, 1 ER, 90 pitches….

    • Adam B.

      and 6-1 gb-fb… AWESOME

  • Adam B.

    Mike they pulled Dellin tonight after 90 pitches when he was dominating… why don’t they let him get used to throwing 110-120 pitches a start?