Jul
07

Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects

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Baseball America posted a midseason (half) update to their preseason top 100 prospects list, and you can see the list for free. You’ll need a subscription to see the analysis, however. Jesus Montero fell from number three overall to number eight, though they caution everyone to not “be swayed by [his] so-so first half, his hit/power tools are still the same.” Manny Banuelos jumps from number 41 to number 13 (“Was dominating in spring training, but stuff isn’t as firm now as it was”) and Dellin Betances from 43 to 26 (“Impressive stuff, but Betances rarely makes it look easy”). Gary Sanchez (preseason #30), Andrew Brackman (#73), and Austin Romine (#98) did not figure into the updated top 50.

BA also put together a stock up/down report (subs. req’d), with J.R. Murphy making the Stock Up section. “[Scouts] report he’s improved significantly on defense, as he threw out 27 percent of opposing baserunners and polished up his receiving. He’s still an offensive catcher, but he’s more of a catcher than ever before.” We’ve heard about the improved defense before. Brackman made the Stock Down section: “His fastball velocity remains inconsistent but has more consistently dipped into the average range … Brackman’s confidence has taken a hit, and scouts report he throws his curve when he most needs a strike.” One good, one not so good.

Categories : Asides, Minors

42 Comments»

  1. Foghorn Leghorn says:

    these prospects are as volatile as internet stocks

  2. Arodys at 16. I’m going to go cry in the corner now.

    We’ll always have, uh, Boone Logan.

    • The Fallen Phoenix says:

      And (comp pick) Dante!

    • 19 Tyler Skaggs, lhp, Diamondbacks

      Repeated for emphasis.

      • CMP says:

        Doesn’t change the fact that the Cashman still should have and could have easily beaten that package for Haren.

        After all, he gave up a better prospect in Arodys Vizacaino for an older and far more shitty pitcher in Vasquez.

        • He couldn’t have traded Vizcaino for Haren after trading him for Vazquez seven months early.

          • CMP says:

            I didn’t say he should have traded Vizcaino for Haren since Vizcaino was obviously already in the Braves system by last summer.
            I was comparing the 2 trades of which the Yankee gave away better players and received an older and inferior pitcher.

            Cashman could have come up with a comparable package to the Angels which was still a great trade for them even if Skaggs is a top prospect.

            • And that comparable package probably would have required something along the ilk of Jesus Montero or Manny Banuelos or Arodys Vizcaino (were he still available). We can say that confidently because Skaggs, while a PBTNL, was an elite, top-level prospect at the time of the trade, a prospect on par with Montero and a clear tick above Banuelos (who was still just putting himself on the map at the time) and not a scrub.

              That’s the point of my comment; not that Cashman shouldn’t have parted with Montero/Banuelos/whatever else it cost to get Haren, just that the Haren deal is consistently mischaracterized as Haren for an awful shit-platter of nothingness that Cashman could have easily beaten with useless flotsam and jetsam like Sergio Mitre and Pat Venditte (and the concurrent thought process that Cashman is a moron for not making that Mitre/Venditte for Haren deal and beating an easily-beatable package).

              We don’t know what it really would have taken to beat the Skaggs-lead package that the DBacks did take, but we do know that it wasn’t a Saunders-lead package, it was a Skaggs-lead package. That’s my only point.

              • CMP says:

                The Haren deal was still a steal for the Angels even if Skaggs is a top 20 prospect.

                IMO, anyone other than ManBan including Joba could have packed their bags if it meant acquiring Haren who is a legitimate number 1 starter.

                He’s the kind of pitcher Cashman thought he getting when he flushed $85 million on Burnett.

                • Ted Nelson says:

                  The Angels didn’t just trade Skaggs. Skaggs was the rough equivalent of Manny. They also traded a passable young-ish LHSP from the AL. Basically something close to Joba at the time.

                  So… your point is that you wouldn’t have traded Manny for Skaggs, but all the evidence we have suggests it would have been necessary to trade Manny for Skaggs. The DBacks from 3 LHP for Haren. Manny was and is the Yankees only expendable LHP with much value.

                  Also worth noting that Haren became a #1 starter again, or maybe even for the first time, by developing a cutter. His FB velo had declined, and he was not a home run pick to recover. It wasn’t nearly as much of a no-brainer at the time as it’s become in hindsight.

              • CMP says:

                I forgot to say I agree with your point that Saunders was far from the centerpiece of that deal, however.

      • Slugger27 says:

        Wouldnt his prospect rank at the time of the trade be more relevant? The trade wasn’t made today…

        At any rate, 3.5 years of team control for a below market dan haren is certainly worth much more than the no. 19 ranked prospect (even though he wasn’t no. 19 at the time)

        • The only reason he wasn’t ranked #19 at the time of the trade is because he was a recent draftee and many ranking services don’t rank draftees that soon. Skaggs was an elite prospect at the time of the trade, though.

          • Slugger27 says:

            He was drafted in 2009, and the trade was made in july 2010. He had been a professional for a full year… I don’t know what he was ranked at the time of the trade, but I find it impossible to believe ranking services hadn’t released a ranking on him by july 2010

            • My bad, I forgot he was the year before. Still, Skaggs at the time of the trade had been 19 years old for all of a week and had a total of 92 professional innings to his credit. He was tons of potential and upside (as evidenced by being the 40th overall pick in the draft the year before) but still largely too unproven to show up in many prospect ranking Top 100′s. Doesn’t mean he wasn’t a top 100 talent at the time, though, he was just a “wait and see” like what Mike does with guys like Gary Sanchez.

              You were basically buying on spec, but it was a great spec buy. Skaggs in July 2010 would be like Nick Castellanos right now; he’s not good enough to make any Top 100, because he’s so young and hasn’t shown anything yet, but he can leap right into the top 25 a year later if he at all delivers on his immense promise.

          • Avi says:

            “Skaggs was an elite prospect at the time of the trade, though.”

            Flatly false. Skaggs didn’t crack BA’s top 100 prior to 2010 and was ranked 82nd prior to 2011. He was a grade B prospect at best at the time of the trade (in low class A as well).

            • An 18 year old, 6’4″ lefty who went 40th in the draft and who Callis described as “the most projectable high school lefty pitcher in the drfat class” is pretty much always an elite prospect, even if he’s too young/raw to chart in BA’s top 100.

              There’s a reason he leapt from nowhere into the top 20; the ranking sites were waiting to see if he was legit. He was.

              • Gonzo says:

                I’m late to this, but the Dbacks were heavily linked to Skaggs in the draft. They “loved” him and were upset that the Angels snagged him.

                He may not have been BA or KLaw top 50 at the time, but those rankings are backward looking anyway. Was his stuff radically different in July than September? Probably not enough for to say, “wow, what’s going on there!”. The familiarity just reinforces what they already knew and “loved” about him. They could have easily ranked him higher than Joba/Betances/even ManBan at the time because they knew him since before he was a pro.

  3. Adam B. says:

    Banuelos jumped up a lot for that comment… interesting.

  4. Frigidevil says:

    Harper’s an outfielder now? I thought he was a pitcher who wanted to hit so he played catcher.

  5. Jimmy McNulty says:

    Why couldn’t they have used Brackman instead of Arodys?

  6. Foghorn Leghorn says:

    so where in the world is Casey Kelly? He began the year at #31 and is not on this list. He isn’t showing much at all in AA ball.

    My take is once you get past the top 10, the rest is a complete crapshoot.

  7. Karl Krawfid says:

    Betances is touching 98-99 today.

  8. Avi says:

    Anthony Ranaudo at #37. No Cito Culver.

  9. Adam B. says:

    Dellin running roughshot through the opposing lineup tonight… 6.0 IP,4 H, 9 K!!!!, 2 BB, 1 ER, 90 pitches….

  10. Adam B. says:

    Mike they pulled Dellin tonight after 90 pitches when he was dominating… why don’t they let him get used to throwing 110-120 pitches a start?

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