Fan Confidence: July 18th, 2011

Hughes solid as Yanks salvage series in Toronto
The steep, but reasonable, price of Ubaldo Jimenez

Record Last Week: 2-2 (19 RS, 26 RA)
Season Record:
55-37 (474 RS, 360 RA, 58-34 pythag. record), one game back in the loss column
Opponents This Week:
@ Rays (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), vs. Athletics (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
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Hughes solid as Yanks salvage series in Toronto
The steep, but reasonable, price of Ubaldo Jimenez
  • http://facebook.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

    Well with Hughes showing promise I wanted to vote 8, with Girardi not letting him go more than 80 pitches it made me want to vote 6 so I guess 7 is appropriate, but really Girardi needs to get his head up out of his ass.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      This is satire, right?

      • http://facebook.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

        There’s no comedy in baseball.

        #tomhanksd

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          So a manager pulling his 25 year old starting pitcher after the 6th inning and 80 pitches with a 6-2 lead—a pitcher who, mind you, entering that game had made only one start after missing nearly three months with a “we’re not quite sure what’s wrong with you” injury and had an 0-2 record with a 10.57 ERA, including a loss in that prior start a week ago—is enough for you to lower your confidence level a full two points?

          You don’t see all the additional context involved with that decision outside of the simple binary “He only threw 80 pitches”? You don’t see that where Hughes was coming from, where he was at, where we want to get him to, and how much time is still left on the schedule to get him there factored into it, and made it different than, say, CC or Garcia or Nova having thrown 80 pitches through 6 innings and having a 6-2 lead?

          Girardi didn’t have a single valid reason for making the call he did, he simply has his “head up in his ass”?

          Really, Drew?

          • CP

            “we’re not quite sure what’s wrong with you” injury

            I don’t think that’s accurate. He had shoulder inflammation and received a cortisone shot.

            • Mike HC

              He flaked on his steroid routine in the off season and had to start from scratch.

            • Skip

              To be fair – that is kind of a cop-out diagnosis. Everyone has inflammation in their joints to some extent. Granted, it might not be as much in one person compared to another, but it’s still there.

              In any case – he got his DL stint, cortisone and it’s helped. End effect (so far) has been good.

              • CP

                It could be a cop out, but it also sounds like a reasonable explanation for why he lost velocity but didn’t feel any pain.

          • Mike HC

            Girardi specifically mentioned that the heat was the main reason they took Hughes out early. And I’m sure, combined with the reasons you stated above.

            • MannyGeee

              wait, i thought these dinosaurs got *better* in the heat?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Yes, thanks for mentioning the heat, I forgot to include that. Also a very critical factor.

              • Oscar Gamble’s Fro

                Why are we omitting from the contextual atmosphere the fact that Young Phillip was complaining about uterine pain as early as the second inning?

          • http://facebook.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

            Had a whole long response but I guess the Spam filter got it.

            Spark Notes version:

            The stress free situation dictated that Hughes should have gone back out there, and if Hughes is going to be an important part of the rotation going forward he is going to need to pitch, not babied.

            Though the 3 paragraph version was much more convincing.

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              Counterargument: Pitching is so much mental, Hughes probably needed to have a good solid outing with no negatives and a good win.

              And it’s only mid-July, Hughes will have at least a dozen more starts to work his way up the ladder to 100+ pitches. Not every goal need be accomplished all at once. Get Phil a win and a good outing to build on, and then start pushing him to 90 pitches and 100 and 110 in his next few starts against Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle, et. al. at home.

              • http://facebook.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

                Counterargument to your counterargument:

                Yes it is only July but Girardi as the manager needs to manage to the situation. Facing the bottom part on the lineup and only needing a combined 15 pitches to get through the last 2 innings, there was no harm in putting him back out there for the 7th inning. He was navigating a good hitting lineup (minus Bautista) with relative ease and seemed to get stronger as the game wore on. For Girardi say he pulled him partially because it was hot outside absolutely boggles my mind. I just feel Girardi had his mind made up before the game that he was only going to throw X amount of pitches or innings. (Hence the head up the ass comment)

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  Facing the bottom part on the lineup and only needing a combined 15 pitches to get through the last 2 innings, there was no harm in putting him back out there for the 7th inning.

                  Phil Hughes hasn’t been good enough long enough yet for him to have a theoretical 7th inning where there’s zero potential for harm.

                  Maybe Hughes goes back out there and puts up a zero in 9 pitches. Or maybe he tires (since he hasn’t thrown 90 pitches without getting fatigued in, oh, about a year now) and it all comes apart and he gives up three runs.

                  Do you not see the benefit for Hughes of leaving a game with the good feeling of an impending win and an outing without significant flaws? Is getting one more inning (and risking that inning turning out poorly) worth possibly forfeiting that benefit? Does the potential good outweigh the potential bad?

                  I just feel Girardi had his mind made up before the game that he was only going to throw X amount of pitches or innings. (Hence the head up the ass comment)

                  And maybe Girardi had done just that and gave the heat excuse as a blatant lie to the media, because the media is full of ignorant cockknockers who are incapable of understanding the wisdom of limiting a 25 year old starter coming off a three month injury layoff who hasn’t pitched well in a year to 80ish pitches on a day where he’s experiencing the first successful outing in that year.

                  Maybe Girardi doesn’t have his head up his ass, maybe he’s just trying to protect his young starter who is making the long journey back to effectiveness from a media full of simpletons and boverreactors. Maybe there’s that.

                  • BklynJT

                    boverreactors…

                    Nice! I haven’t been here in a while but I like the evolution. Keep up the good work.

                • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

                  That still shouldn’t lower your confidence in the team’s ability the world series by ten percent. It’s a reasonable move that perhaps you may disagree with, not a season-altering event.

                  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                    That too.

                    Girardi choosing not to build Phil Hughes’s pitch count up past 80 in this particular one game (as opposed to any of the dozen-plus other games Phil Hughes will pitch in between now and October) doesn’t really strike me as a confidence-altering event.

                    If it’s September and Hughes still isn’t pitching past 80 pitches, sure, panic your heart out.

                    • http://facebook.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

                      +1 for using the word cockknockers.

                      The 10% confidence drop had more to do with Girardi overall, just yesterday was the tipping point. We can agree to disagree on this. I don’t think the Yankees needed to baby Hughes yesterday. I understand protecting your young pitcher but yesterday I just didn’t see the need to take him out after 80 pitches because it was hot outside.

                    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                      I understand protecting your young pitcher but yesterday I just didn’t see the need to take him out after 80 pitches because it was hot outside.

                      And if the only reason was just that it was hot outside, I’d agree. I have no reason to believe that the heat was the only reason he was lifted, though, and neither should you.

                      What Joe Girardi tells us ≠ What Joe Girardi actually thinks

    • Mike HC

      Girardi mentioned in the post game interview that the extreme heat was why they did not let him back out there. You can still disagree with the move, as Hughes was trying to convince them to let him back in, but Girardi made the move as to not overwork him and maybe cause another injury. It was smart to play it safe.

  • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

    I was at a 10, until the AL lost the ASG and thus, home field advantage. As we all know, HFA is the single most important factor in WS success, and this means the Yankees are hopelessly screwed. There is literally no earthly way the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Rangers, Angels, or Mariners can possibly hope to beat whomever the NL representative is, because HFA matters that much. I’ve looked it up; the team with HFA always wins the title. Always.

    Confidence Level: 1

    • Josh

      You overlooked the fact that the poll was ‘Given the team’s current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees’ overall future?’ not ‘how confident are you that the Yankees will win the WS?’

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        My bad.

        On second thought, the Yankees failing to win the WS this year will send the team into a tailspin of overreactions, bad trades, bad signings, impetuous firings, clinical depression, chain-smoking, chain-drinking, chain-sawing, poor interior decorating decisions (taffeta?!?!), unpredictable fatal boating accidents, shingles, lupus, and a Hideki Irabu comeback. Following a decade of sub-.400 baseball, Hal and Hank will sell the team to Jim Dolan, and within another ten years the team will be contracted altogether, ending the proud legacy of what was once the greatest team in North American professional sports.

        All because of that All Star Game loss.

        Confidence Level: -25.

        • http://twitter.com/astrophunq Dax J.

          chain-smoking, chain-drinking, chain-sawing, poor interior decorating decisions (taffeta?!?!), unpredictable fatal boating accidents, shingles, lupus, and a Hideki Irabu comeback.

          Don’t forget thong-wearing. Seriously though, I laughed so hard when I read this.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            Seriously, kids, taffeta is always ugly. Don’t go there.

        • BklynJT

          Let’s be a little fair… what’s the point of doing a weekly confidence poll if voters aren’t going to base their votes on an irrational flood of emotions as Girardi pulls Hughes after 80 pitches in yesterdays game.

          This running graph would be a boring arse straight line if it was taken by voters with big picture perspective always in their minds.

          • Midland TX

            I get your point but “fair” is calling out people who want to turn the site into River Avenue Yelp.

      • jsbrendog

        i laughed

    • http://procrastinationperfected.tumblr.com/ BigDavey88

      Preach, brotha. Preach.

    • MannyGeee

      well, solid 1.5 considering the second biggest factor in a teams success is the employment of a Home Run Derby Champion…

      so there’s that

  • David, Jr.

    Still at 9 for me.

    Outfield is a huge positive. Lockdown bullpen could be coming soon, if it isn’t already. ARod should return ready to rumble. Cano could dominate the rest of the year. Hughes looked very good yesterday. Nova waiting to come up if needed, and be quite decent. Overall excellent team defense. Ample assets in $ and excess prospects to make a move. Certainly mostly positives, as illustrated by record, pythag and run differential. Huge % chance to make playoffs.

    Not many negatives. Starters beyond CC in a short series against pitchers like Lee or Lester. How to manage the Coach’s Son. Lead off, play every day, what the F to do with him?

    • David, Jr.

      Defined as for this year, and with a scale definition as a 10 as a WS favorite, and going down from there.

  • Reggie C.

    7.

    This team can’t afford to lose both colon and Garcia to ineffectiveness. Colon has been a revelation when healthy, and since Hughes is working his way back the team needs another run of quality starts from Colon.

    CC for CY. Period.

    Hoping Granderson and Teixeira keep the lights on. We can never have Too Many Homers nights.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Counterargument: Hughes is on the road back and can replace one of those two, and Nova is still sitting in Scranton and can replace the other. Between the 6 of them, there’s enough to make it into the playoffs, and then we only need three or four of our six starters to be effective.

      • Tom Swift

        These are reasons why Cashman should not give up too much to acquire Ubaldo. I would rather see him get Kurota if the price is right.

        • JohnnyC

          Kuroda has a full no-trade clause and will not approve a trade to an East Coast team. Prefers to stay on the West Coast.

      • Reggie C.

        I’m not ready to give Hughes the duty of replacing Colon from the three spot only bc Colon has had such a good season to date and Hughes has had one good start.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          And similarly, I’m not ready to give Hughes the duty of replacing Colon from the three spot because we don’t even know if Colon will need replacing from the three spot.

          Still plenty of season left, both good and bad.

  • Monteroisdinero

    9 with Montero and Nova in the future fold and Phil abandoning the knuckle curve which the Yankee knuckleheads had him throwing and messing up his fb and everything else for 2 months.

    9 with Ubaldo and no Montero and Nova as well.

    but I prefer my top selection.

    • CP

      Phil abandoning the knuckle curve which the Yankee knuckleheads had him throwing and messing up his fb and everything else for 2 months.

      What? He’s been throwing the knuckle curve for a few years. It was quite effective for him in 2009, so it certainly wasn’t obvious that changing the grip was the key adjustment needed.

    • Skip

      Uh, you know he’s thrown that knuckle-curve for a while now. You know, since he learned it from MIKE MUSSINA.

      Phil is a tinker-er. He’s always been known to be a tireless worker. That’s why he picked up the knuckle-curve from Moose and the cutter from Mo. He drives himself to be better.

      • Oscar Gamble’s Fro

        Eh, one man’s driven to be better is another man’s head case.

  • http://damanitv@yahoo.com Troy V.

    i intially gave the Yanks a 6…but if the question is how confident am i in the them winning a World Series then my answer is at best 3.Since the Yanks are basically a team bulit on free agents…i am not optimistic…most teams are locking up young talent well into there 30’s and that means the Yankees will be forced into overpaying for talent that will be bad for most of there contract…and sometimes the Yankees don’t make deals in the best interest in winning they do it with marketing as there main priority…and as we will see with Arod and Jeter it makes winning that much more difficult.and it seems the Yanks are not totally commited to going after the top latin talent as they seem to never be number 1 in money spent in that area…which could save them money on the major league level in the long run and provide an even better farm system to trade for big stars…which i think would be alot better for there future than giving Jeter the deal he recieved…

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      and sometimes the Yankees don’t make deals in the best interest in winning they do it with marketing as there main priority…

      Yeah… no.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

      This is one hell of a poorly reasoned post.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Writing ability correlates well with thinking ability.

        • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

          Very true. So this guy would kill it on the GMAT or LSAT?

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      and it seems the Yanks are not totally commited to going after the top latin talent as they seem to never be number 1 in money spent in that area…

      You’re right, the Yankees suck in the Latin talent market.

      Sincerely,
      Robinson Cano, Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, Eduardo Nuñez, Ramiro Peña, Jesus Montero, Manny Banuelos, Gary Sanchez, Jose Ramirez, Melky Mesa, Abe Almonte, Ramon Flores, Kelvin Deleon, Eduardo Sosa, Jorge Vazquez, Jairo Heredia, Alfredo Aceves, Alfonso Soriano, Jose Tabata, Arodys Vizcaino, Jimmy Paredes, Ramon Ramirez, Dioner Navarro, Juan Rivera, Juan Carlos Paniagua, Reymond Nuñez, Yeicok Calderon, Rafael DePaula, and countless others.

    • https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealJeromeS Jerome S.

      Unsure if I have the authority to do this, but
      oaktag.

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        You’re good money.

      • jsbrendog

        i approve.

  • http://twitter.com/AnaMariana42 Ana

    I’m a 9 for the team, as I have been all season and will continue to be unless things change structurally.

    As for the commenters, I fluctuate between a 1 and a 2 – continued idiocy, obsession with overstating Jeter’s flaws, an inexplicable hero worship of Nunez, and the constant implication that comparing someone offensively to Jason Giambi is an insult generally keep me at a 1, but rebexarama, TSJC, et al. may give the masses the punch they need to bump my confidence level up a notch.

    • David, Jr.

      “obsession with overstating Jeter’s flaws”

      Flaws? Explain what his positives are. I see one of the highest paid players on the team, with a .328 on base percentage, with the power of a back up catcher, and a significantly below average fielder.

      What am I missing? Some kind of intangibles, or what?

      • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

        “…and a significantly below average fielder.”

        Not sure how true that is anymore. Sure, his range sucks but he has a positive UZR and hasn’t been all that bad over the last 4 years. Have you seen Nunez and Pena out there?

        I think her point is that many people here seem to blow the whole Jeter thing out of proportion… constantly talking about his place in the batting order as if a change would generate a ton more runs, etc. You’d think the guy’s hitting .150 and fields from a wheelchair. It just isn’t worth obsessing over on this club.

        • David, Jr.

          You are right. I looked it up. He is squeezing out +0.3 this year, which puts him at -42.1 for the last ten years. Ozzie Smith II.

          • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

            …but +1.7 over the last 4 seasons:)

            I’m not claiming him to be the next Omar Vizquel, but he’s not exactly Yuniesky Betancourt either. Good SS’s are tough to come by.

            • CP

              I think it’s important to note that a couple years ago Cashman told him he had to focus more on defense. He changed his workout routine and has been about average since then.

              Most of the time these ‘best shape of his life’ or ‘new mechanics’ are just BS and don’t actually have an impact. But sometimes they do.

          • http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama

            He is squeezing out +0.3 this year, which puts him at -42.1 for the last ten years

            How is the last ten years relevant? Wow, way to be purposefully obtuse to Clay Bellinger’s point. Also, if that’s the case, well he’s also hitting .307/.377/.436 over the past ten years, so why are we so worried about him offensively? /wank wank wank

            And thank you, Ana. I try~

            • David, Jr.

              TotalZone at -9. It has been in minus territory 15 out of the last 17 years.

      • Adam Parker

        Wow, you sure proved her point. Good job.

        • David, Jr.

          What are his positives, again?

        • David, Jr.

          What was the point? Can’t speak objectively about one player on the team?

    • http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama

      As for the commenters, I fluctuate between a 1 and a 2

      Well when you consider replacement level on other sites, that bumps it up to at least like a 5.

  • MannyGeee

    solid 8 once again. all these things are temporary. Hughes solid coming back on Sunday is promising, even though Bartolo looked like a 39YO salvage yard pitcher on Thursday…

    nice piece of schedule coming up too, so I feel as good today as I did yesterday about our team.

  • bonestock94

    This could be a VERY different vote in a week or two. Unless the national writers are just blowing smoke up our ass.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Meh, a trade for Ubaldo may not affect my confidence that much; it all depends on price. Adding Ubaldo would obviously increase my confidence that we’ll win this WS this year, but losing Montero and one (or more) of Betances/Banuelos would hurt our chances for 2012-2022.

      We’ll have to climb the mountain again with Gary Sanchez and Jairo Heredia (or something like that), and that’s always dicey.

      • Crime Dog

        Or some prospects we haven’t even heard the names of yet.

        • JFH

          Rumor has it that the Rockies aren’t only asking for Montero, Nova, Betances and Banuelos. They are also asking for the Holy Grail and the Ark of the Covenant. So, I am not sure we will land Ubaldo.

          • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

            That’s ridiculous, we don’t have the Holy Grail and the Ark of the Covenant! What would have ever given the Rockies the idea that we have those?

            (looks around nervously)

      • David, Jr.

        Good thoughts, but remember that Ubaldo is also quite young and should be able to contribute far beyond 2012.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Agreed.

          • David, Jr.

            What line do you think that they will draw? I am wondering about Montero, Nova, Heathcott, because apparently they need a talented young outfielder to develop, and one or two Warren types.

            Not enough, what do you think?

            • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

              I can’t see Colorado giving up Ubaldo without getting back at least one stud position player and one legit future ace pitching prospect.

              That means Warren/Nova/et. al. won’t be enough. It’s Montero/Banuelos or Montero/Betances to even get a foot in the door.

            • Rick in Boston

              I’m not sure anyone will take Heathcott at this point. His shoulder seems to be a mess and that would be a deal-breaker for a number of teams.

              • bonestock94

                Plus he’s a jackass

                • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

                  You say that like it’s a bad thing.

                  • bonestock94

                    Good point

      • bonestock94

        I can live without Betances, Montero, and some B prospects like Nova and/or Romine. Banuelos would sting. As a Yankee fan I’m willing to trade future power for an ace today, there will never be a dearth of power on this team imo. Betances is very promising but there’s already talk of him being a bullpen guy, so again I can live without that.

        • Rick in Boston

          I can’t see Romine being moved in a deal that also includes Montero. The Yankees would be depleting their upper level catching prospects.

          • bonestock94

            True

  • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

    I think Hughes is going to come back strong, which will help offset the fall from grace of either Bart or the Chief. Nova is waiting in the wings to help spell the other’s fall from grace if that does indeed happen.

    If the Yanks can get Ubaldo for something less than Montero + Betances + Banuelos, than I bump up to a solid 9. I doubt they make the deal if it costs all 3 of those guys, but if they do for some reason, I drop to a 7. Mortgaging a lot of the future for 1 guy, even if he us under team control for a while.

    Speaking of trade scenarios- Sports talk radio up in Boston thinks the Sox can get Reyes for Iglesias straight up. Yeah.

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Speaking of trade scenarios- Sports talk radio up in Boston thinks the Sox can get Reyes for Iglesias straight up. Yeah.

      That’s just the syphilis infecting their brains.

      • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

        I know hometown fans tend to overvalue their prospects, but the Sox take it to the next level. Now that they don’t have Kelly to elevate to god status, they’ve moved on to Iglesias. It’s kind of sad actually.

    • AndrewYF

      Jose Iglesias has 4 extra base hits on the season. Why the Sox thought he was ready for AAA based on his .672 OPS (even more alarming, a 49/8 K/BB ratio) at AA, I will never know. I’m tempted to say Iglesias has been Duncan’d.

      • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

        He’s never been a hitter. His calling card has always been his glove, which is fine. A solid fielding shortstop is still capable of contributing at the major league level. I just think he is way way overvalued by both Sox fans and professional scouts.

        • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

          Iglesias is like Ichiro. Iglesias could hit homers, triples, doubles, and singles, he just doesn’t want to.

          • http://www.twitter.com/brandonholley B-Rando

            Well done sir.

    • bonestock94

      Iglesias = Cesar Izturus without the bat

      • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

        Rey Sanchez plus Rey Ordoñez, minus the hit tool.

    • feasor

      I do wonder what the Sox can really offer at this point. Ranaudo, and maybe Brentz, seem like their only enticing trade chips at the moment, and both are in A ball.

  • CMP

    Solid 8.

    Love their future with all the good young arms down on the farm but while I think they have enough starting pitching to make the playoffs this year, I still think they need another front end starter to win the whole thing.

  • Kramerica Industries

    Yankees might have a nice series coming up, thanks in part to the Rays exhausting their bullpen over the last two nights.

    5.5 game margin to boot. Not bad.

  • Joe

    9. 11 when CC pitches.

  • nsalem

    40 years of combined production from Nunez, Montero and Betances or Banuelos vs 7 Years from Ubaldo.
    Too much I’ll stick with the kids.

  • Crime Dog

    Heyman just said on twitter that the Rockies would take Montero in a trade but he wouldn’t be the centerpiece.

    Head status: exploded

    • http://twitter.com/tsjc68 tommiesmithjohncarlos a/k/a Ridiculous Upside the Elder

      Centerpiece: Derek Jeter

      • Crime Dog

        I’ll give you Luis Sojo and Shane Spencer

        • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

          Throw in Ricky Ledee and you’ve got a deal.

    • David, Jr.

      That would mean Hughes or Banuelos.

      • Oscar Gamble’s Fro

        Trading Hughes/Montero for Jimenez is never gonna happen. C’mon now.

        • Oscar Gamble’s Fro

          And I realize you’re not saying that it woould get it done, just indicating who you think the Rockies will request in addition to Montero.

        • David, Jr.

          I agree with you. I’m just saying that if they don’t look at Montero as the centerpiece, then who would that be?

          • Oscar Gamble’s Fro

            Your guess of Banuelos or Hughes is as good as anything I could come up with. So I agree with you too.

    • bonestock94

      WAT

  • steve s

    Considering they only have to go 40 and 30 to win 95 games (which should be enough to take at least the wildcard) I’m confident that, even without any significant trades at the deadline, the 2011 Yanks are a playoff team. On the other hand even pulling off a trade for Ubaldo doesn’t make me feel great about their chances to advance much in the 2011 playoffs, the crapshoot that the playoffs sometimes are notwithstanding. Bottom-line is I’m not trading my best prospects just for the, at best, 50/50 shot of advancing in the 2011 playoffs. This all adds up to:

    Current confidence level to make playoffs: 9

    Future confidence level if they don’t trade best prospects at July, 2011 deadline: 9

    Future confidence level if they give up Montero and a great and a good pitching prospect: 7

    Confidence level to advance in 2011 playoffs (no matter what they do at July, 2011 trade deadline): 5

    • Ted Nelson

      I’m not saying that they should or should not make a Ubaldo trade… but I don’t think you’re fairly evaluating the possibility.

      Ubaldo is 27 years old. It’s very likely that he’ll help them beyond 2011. There’s obviously risk involved, but there’s risk involved with prospects too.

      It also doesn’t make much sense to say that you are equally confident of them advancing in the 2011 playoffs whether they add an ace pitcher or do not add an ace pitcher… if it makes them a better team, it has got to change their odds.

      Basically, I think you are adjusting your assumptions to reflect the outcome that you want: you don’t want to trade the top prospects, so you are stacking the deck to make it look like a worse idea than it really is. It’s a tough decision either way, but we at least have to look at it objectively to analyze it.

      • steve s

        To be more precise, adding Ubaldo IMO doesn’t get them by the Red Sox but I would modify what I said above and would agree that it would change the odds in Yanks favor of getting to second round (whereas adding Felix, if he were available, would change the odds of getting by the Red Sox). As to the future, it seems pretty axiomatic to me that holding on to 3 of your 4 best prospects makes for a more confident future than trading them for a number 2 type starter who is not having a slam dunk year.

        • Ted Nelson

          It still changes their odds of getting past the Red Sox… even if you want to say they had a 5% chance and now they have a 10% chance if they get Ubaldo (which I think is ridiculous because the Red Sox aren’t that good) that still changes their odds.

          I’m not sure how a 3.0-3.1 FIP pitcher changes your opinion that much more than a 3.1-3.4 FIP pitcher. They’re going to pitch 2 games in that series… are you really that much more confident Felix wins both his games and Ubaldo wins neither or what?

          “As to the future, it seems pretty axiomatic to me that holding on to 3 of your 4 best prospects makes for a more confident future than trading them for a number 2 type starter who is not having a slam dunk year.”

          No… it’s really not. Prospects fail the majority of the time. Even top 10, top 25, top 50 prospects fail the majority of the time.

          And Ubaldo is not a #2. He’s been a top 10 pitcher for 3.5 years and there are 30 teams in the league… he’s in the top 33% of #1 starters.

  • Hester Prynne

    I’ve always said anything less than a 9 is insanity and I’ll repeat it again this week.