Archive for July, 2011
Comparing the Yankees to their peers: Infield
Posted by: | CommentsThe halfway point of the season passed about a week ago, but the next three days represent the observed mid-point in the season. Absent meaningful baseball games to discuss, we’re left with a short period of evaluation. We do this every year, and we try to take it from a different angle each time. This year we’ll look around the roster and compare the Yankees to their positional peers. We start today with the infielders.
To keep things on a similar scale, we’ll measure everything in runs. On offense this will be FanGraphs’ Batting Runs Above Average (the offense component of WAR, which is wOBA park- and league-adjusted) and UZR. Since UZR has its share of issues, we’ll also add Baseball Prospectus’s Fielding Runs Above Average for more context — though there is no rank on FRAA.
1B, Mark Teixeira
A notoriously slow starter, Teixeira helped eliminate that narrative when he homered in the seasons’s first three games, and four of the first five. It spurred his best April in recent memory: .256/.392/.549. He’s fallen off considerably since then, though, hitting .240/.338/.508 since May 1, for a collective first-half line of .244/.352/.519, or a .378 wOBA.
Offense: 18.0, 6th. I actually expected Teixeira to finish a bit worse here, on account of the insane production among first basemen this year. Sixth isn’t bad, but the players ahead of him are way ahead of him: Paul Konerko, who ranks fifth, is nearly seven runs better than Teixeira at the plate.
Defense: 2.9, 7th. UZR has rarely worked out favorably for Teixeira. We see him make amazing plays every week at first, yet he has two years of below-average UZR numbers as a Yankee. I’m not sure why, but the answer might simply be that the numbers that feed into UZR don’t necessarily reflect the skills that make a first baseman valuable. Or maybe it’s seeing something that our eyes aren’t. FRAA has him at -2.9 runs.
WAR: 3.1, 5th. Teixeira leapfrogs Konerko here not just because of defense, but because Konerko has a league-worst -7.3 base running mark. Yes, that’s worse than Posada.
2B, Robinson Cano
After a career year in 2010, Cano had set the bar high for 2011. He hasn’t quite reached that level of production, but he has surged at times. He ended the first half with a .296/.342/.521 line that looks good, not great, but is actually relatively elite given the offensive environment.
Offense: 15.8, 5th. Would you believe that Dustin Pedroia is first among 2B with 18.1 runs above average? He’s a little ways ahead of Cano thanks to his much higher OBP. Cano has the power game going on, which keeps him right around the leaders. He’s actually closer to first than his is sixth, so he’s grouped in with Pedroia, Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, and Ben Zobrist as the top-tier offensive second basemen in the league. You can throw Howie Kendrick, at 13.1 runs above average, in there if you want as well.
Defense: -2.5, 16th. As has been the norm. UZR rates Cano lower than what we observe from day-to-day. This year he’s been observably worse than he was in 2010, but it still doesn’t feel as though he’s a below average defender. Unsurprisingly, FRAA has him at 1.2 runs above average. Then again, it had him slightly below average last year, and well above average every other year of his career, and had 2008 as his best year.
WAR: 2.9, 8th. This is where his fielding numbers hurt a bit. It’s tough to imagine that Brandon Phillips is more than a win better than him in the field, but that’s where UZR is going with this season. It might not be completely accurate, since batted ball data isn’t perfect and can affect UZR. But it might just be the effects of a small sample: half a season of UZR is akin to a month or so of offensive data, and so it could be the result of a simple slump.
3B, Alex Rodriguez
After he got off to an incredibly hot start, Alex battled injuries, first to his oblique and then to his knee, throughout the first half. He ends it on a downer, as surgery will cost him four to six weeks. But given how well he hit even with the injuries, a healthy, rejuvenated Alex could be an enormous threat down the stretch.
Offense: 15.1, 2nd. Kevin Youkilis has greatly outhit every third baseman in the league, as he’s 6.8 runs ahead of Alex. That’s to the Sox advantage in one way, since they essentially have two guys who hit like first basemen. But as you’ll see in the next few categories, it’s not all hunky dory.
Defense: 10.3, 1st. There is no doubt that Alex has played a superb third base this season. He looks smoother out there in the field, which likely has to do with his trimming down this winter. But has he provided a win above average with his glove? Just as we should be skeptical of Cano’s low UZR, we should be skeptical of Alex’s high one. He’s been good, but I’m not so certain he’s been that good. Then again, FRAA has him at 6.2 runs above average, which is already better than any of his years at third except for 2008.
WAR: 4.0, 1st. This is largely a fielding-based advantage, but it does appear that A-Rod is that much better than Youkilis with the glove at third. Third base is a pretty bleak position this year, and so having Alex has been a great advantage. That stinks, because he’s going to miss plenty of time. But it also means that Eduardo Nunez shouldn’t have much trouble hitting like an above-average third baseman.
SS, Derek Jeter
Jeter was primed for a bounce back. He had worked all winter trying to simplify his swing, removing a hitch that hurt him greatly in 2010. Yet it didn’t work out at all. He abandoned his new mechanics shortly after the season started, and at the break he’s more or less at the same level as last year. Missing time with a calf injury didn’t help matters. Unless Saturday was a portend for the second half, it appears that we’ll have a second half of Jeter atop the lineup with a .330ish OBP.
Offense: -2.3, 15th. There is Jose Reyes, and then there is a second tier of very good offensive shortstops: Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, and Yunel Escobar. It starts to dip a bit after that, with a cluster around 5 runs above average, until we get into the negatives. Unfortunatley, Jeter doesn’t even fall into that 5-run group. He has been the offensive equivalent of Ryan Theriot, which is something I never thought I’d have to type.
Defense: -1.0, 15th. Again, the eye test pretty much lines up with the UZR assessment. Jeter hasn’t been great in the field, but he’s certainly looked better than he did last year. It’s clear that he put more emphasis on his defensive game during the off-season, because he’s getting to more balls to his left. Maybe it’s a positioning thing, too. FRAA has him at -3.7, which, while not very good, is way, way, way, way better than the numbers throughout his career on that scale.
WAR: 0.9, 17th. In one way, the injury hurt him here, since WAR is a counting stat. In another way, since he’s below average both at the plate and in the field, perhaps his DL hint merely stanched the bleeding. In any case, he stands further below his peers than any other Yankees starter. That’s something that absolutely needs to change in the second half, especially with A-Rod — who is so far ahead of his peers — missing time.
Martin started off the season with a bang — thanks, Ned! — but has dropped off considerably since then. He ended the first month at .293/.376/.587, but has hit just .185/.299/.287 since then. He seems like a guy who would benefit greatly from the three days off. Of course, he’s the backup catcher for the AL in the All-Star game, which means he’ll play.
Offense: 1.0, 13th. Part of this is the time he missed, and part of it is the horrible performance since the end of April. Injury might have explained some of his poor performances, but his numbers have continued to decline even after he recovered.
Defense: 0.5, 6th. I’m honestly not sure how they’re doing defense, since there is no UZR for catchers. Normally they use Defensive Runs Saved, but those are in whole numbers, not fractions. In any case, Martin grades out at around the same level as his peers, which passes the eye test. His pitchers, with their long deliveries, might be hurting his caught stealing numbers, too.
WAR: 1.7, 8th. Considering his offensive shortcomings, this isn’t too bad. He might be even better, too, since Carlos Santana has logged about a third of his playing time at first base. There’s clear room for improvement, too, which could bode well for Martin in the second half.
The Brandon Laird Option
Posted by: | CommentsAlex Rodriguez will miss the next month or so after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee today, leaving the Yankees will a huge hole in their lineup. Even though he hasn’t been hitting for power, A-Rod was still very productive from the cleanup spot, hitting .333/.387/.417 in 93 plate appearances since his last homerun. The Yankees can replace his stats (they may luck out and find someone to match that production but the odds are against it), though they won’t replace the way his presence impacts the game. Alex is one of those rare players that changes the game from the on-deck circle, and no backup infield does that.
Reports over the weekend indicated that the Yankees prefer to replace A-Rod from within, but they’ll at least kick the tires on outside options. The most popular trade candidate seems to be Aramis Ramirez, but he’s a complete non-option. He can definitely hit, no doubt (.298/.346/.497), but his contract says his $16M club option for 2012 turns into a player option if he’s traded. That’s a total deal breaker, there’s no reason for the Yankees to take that on for a six-week stopgap. More realistic options include Melvin Mora and Kevin Kouzmanoff, but they’re not guaranteed to outperform the guys already have in the organization.
The obvious in-house replacement is Eduardo Nunez, who did a fine job filling in for Derek Jeter a few weeks ago. The team has already indicated that he’ll get the bulk of the playing time in A-Rod’s absence, but there is one other option: Brandon Laird. Gerald’s little brother is already on the 40-man roster and is having an okay but not great season at Triple-A. He’s hitting .268/.297/.418 overall with ten homers, though it’s worth noting that he’s been playing better of late: .299/.325/.470 in his last 243 plate appearances, .292/.320/.503 in his last 153 plate appearances, and .311/.321/.584 in his last 78 plate appearances. No, he’s doesn’t walk much, but that’s life.
Laird does his best work against southpaws, tagging them for a .300/.337/.525 line this year (.258/.284/.383 vs. RHP) with a similar platoon split through his career. Not only does have a plethora of experience at third base, but he’s also played plenty of first base and the Yankees have had him dabble in left field over the last ten months or so. It’s probably not a coincidence that his first career game in right field came two days ago. Laird won’t win any Gold Gloves, but he won’t embarrass himself and should make all the routine plays, just not the spectacular onces. My guess is that with a full season’s worth of playing time, he’d probably be 5-10 runs below average with the glove. Not awful, but his bat is good enough that he should be better than replacement level.
For all intents and purposes, this is why the Yankees protected Laird from the Rule 5 Draft last winter. He’ll never ever ever be a starter on this team (barring disaster, anyway), so he serves two purposes: trade bait and an injury fill-in. If he performs well enough at the latter, maybe he snags a bench job for a while. There’s no doubt he’s better than Ramiro Pena, especially offensively, so the Yankees could swap the two and use Laird two or three times a week, primarily against lefties. That way Nunez could spell Jeter and Robinson Cano (or even get a day off himself) without completely sacrificing offense. He’d also be the fifth outfielder and backup first baseman as well.
This is exactly the kind of situation teams carry players like Laird, to fill a temporary hole on the big league roster. ZiPS projected a .250/.297/.424 batting line at big league level before the season, which would be a minor miracle in my eyes. The minor league equivalency of his Triple-A performance is .234/.261/.355 overall and .268/.285/.398 over his last 243 plate appearances. That’s a .295 wOBA or so, and maybe optimal usage (i.e. limited exposure to righties) gets him up to a .310-.315 wOBA, basically league average. I’d rather give Laird a chance to do that than stick with Pena, who we all know will be awful. Sorry Ramiro, nothing personal.
This isn’t quite a long-term fill-in situation but it’s not short-term either, let’s call it medium-term. It’s the perfect chance to try Laird out and see what the kid can do. If he flops, then fine, the Yankees will have essentially lost nothing because his replacement (Pena) is also terrible. If mean really, if not now, then when? Come Thursday (when the games start back up), there are two moves I want to see: Pena down and A-Rod to the disabled list, replaced by Laird and (I guess) Chris Dickerson. Nunez gets the majority of the playing time but Laird sees semi-regular at-bats against lefties. The bench would be the non-useless quartet of Laird/Nunez, Dickerson, Andruw Jones, and Frankie Cervelli. This is why they put Laird on the 40-man during the offseason, to use him in spots like this.
Fan Confidence Poll: July 11th, 2011
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 3-3 (22 RS, 22 RA)
Season Record: 53-35 (455 RS, 334 RA, 57-31 pythag. record), tied in the loss column for AL East lead
Opponents This Week: Mon. to Weds. OFF for All-Star break, @ Blue Jays (four games, Thurs. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- The return of Derek Jeter took place in Cleveland, though the Yankees dropped the series opener. CC Sabathia and Curtis Granderson helped the team to a win the next day, though Phil Hughes was okay at best in his return, taking the loss on Wednesday.
- The Rays came to town next for a four-game series, but Bartolo Colon got smacked around in the opener. Friday’s game was rained out and Tampa voted against playing a doubleheader on Saturday. Jeter homered for his 3,000th career hit and drove in the game-winning run on Saturday, then Sabathia hurled a complete game shutout yesterday.
- Injury News: Alex Rodriguez has a slightly torn meniscus in his right knee and will miss 4-6 weeks after having surgery today. Rafael Soriano threw live batting practice but Pedro Feliciano experienced some soreness in his throwing shoulder and had to be shut down. Damaso Marte is throwing bullpen sessions. Eric Chavez suffered another setback. Mariano Rivera missed a few days with a sore triceps. Jesus Montero was placed on the minor league disabled list with a sore back.
- Brian Gordon was released so that he could sign with a team in Korea. Kanekoa Texeira was also released while Lance Pendleton was demoted to Triple-A to accommodate Hughes’ return. Chris Dickerson went down for Jeter.
- David Robertson and Sabathia were named to the AL All-Star Team, and Robinson Cano will participate in the Homerun Derby. A-Rod will miss the game because of his knee injury, and both Rivera and Jeter will skip the game as well.
- Montero was named the eighth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America while Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances also cracked the top 50.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Romine shines at Futures Game
Posted by: | CommentsJesus Montero is officially out of the Triple-A All-Star Game because he’s still on the disabled list with his sore back. Jorge Vazquez has withdrawn from the Triple-A Homerun Derby due to his recent shoulder injury. For shame.
2011 Futures Game (USA Team 6, World Team 4)
Austin Romine, C: 2 for 2, 1 R – entered the game in the sixth … didn’t get to see the first hit because ESPN2 was busy showing 2001 World Series Game Seven highlights, but the second was a single on a first pitch breaking ball to left, driving in the go-ahead run in the eighth … he took second on the throw home … he also made a nice catch on a foul pop-up at the wall, falling backwards after overrunning it by a step … he had a chance at MVP, but Grant Green took it with the exact same batting line, though both of his hits were doubles … oh well, still a very nice showing
Triple-A Scranton (3-1 loss to Rochester)
Austin Krum, LF, Jorge Vazquez, 1B, Luis Nunez, 2B & Doug Bernier, SS: all 1 for 4 – Krum walked and whiffed … JoVa struck out twice … Nunez doubled, scored, and struck out … Bernier drove in a run and struck out
Greg Golson, CF & Jordan Parraz, RF: both 0 for 3 – Parraz walked and whiffed
Terry Tiffee, DH: 2 for 4, 1 2B
Brandon Laird, 3B: 0 for 4, 1 K
P.J. Pilittere, C: 2 for 4
Pants Lendleton, RHP: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 7-0 GB/FB, 1 E (throwing) – 53 of 76 pitches were strikes (69.8%) … lots of grounders, but he did give up two homers
George Kontos, RHP: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 1-0 GB/FB – 13 of 16 pitches were strikes (81.3%)
Andrew Brackman, RHP: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1-3 GB/FB – 15 of 27 pitches were strikes (55.6%) … the one hit was an infield single, but he reportedly threw a lot of curveballs early in the count … that’s bad, he should be pounding hitters with his fastball and finishing the curve … a power pitcher pitching backwards tells me he’s not confident in his fastball at all
Open Thread: 2011 Futures Game
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The timing sure worked out well this year. With the All-Star Game being played in Arizona, the Futures Game gets a late start and allows us East Coasters to watch it and the Yankees live without having to flip back and forth. There’s only one Yankees farmhand at the event, Double-A Trenton catcher Austin Romine. He isn’t starting the game but figures to enter in the fifth or sixth inning or so. Here are the starting lineups…
World Team (road)
Starling Marte, CF (Pirates)
Jose Altuve, 2B (Astros)
Yonder Alonso, 1B (Reds)
Dayan Viciedo, DH (White Sox)
Alexi Liddi, 3B (Mariners)
Alfredo Silverio, RF (Dodgers)
Chih-Tsien Chang, LF (Red Sox)
Wilin Rosario, C (Rockies)
Hak-Ju Lee, SS (Rays)
Julio Teheran, RHP (Braves)
USA Team (home)
Jason Kipnis, 2B (Indians)
Manny Machado, SS (Orioles)
Bryce Harper, LF (Nationals)
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B (Diamondbacks)
Devin Mesoraco, C (Reds)
Will Middlebrooks, 3B (Red Sox)
James Darnell, DH (Padres)
Wil Myers, RF (Royals)
Gary Brown, CF (Giants)
Tyler Skaggs, LHP (Diamondbacks)
The game starts at 6pm ET, hence the early open thread. You can watch it on ESPN2 of ESPN3.com, which has thoroughly impressed me with the video quality. The regular old ESPN Sunday Night Game has the Mets at the Giants (Pelfrey vs. Cain), but go ahead and talk about whatever your heart desires.
A-Rod will have knee surgery, out 4-6 weeks
Posted by: | CommentsVia Peter Botte, Alex Rodriguez will indeed have surgery for his slightly torn meniscus tomorrow in Florida. He’s expected to be out 4-6 weeks. It sucks, but having A-Rod healthy for the last six or seven weeks of the season is the best course of action.
Injury News: Swisher, Soriano, Chavez, Marte
Posted by: | CommentsSome injury notes on a gorgeous Sunday afternoon, courtesy of Chad Jennings…
- Nick Swisher‘s sore quad is much better and he could have pinch-hit and played the field today if needed. They just played it safe and gave him the day off with the All-Star break coming up, figuring six straight days off would do the trick.
- Rafael Soriano threw live batting practice today and isn’t all that far off from returning. “He’s getting to a point where we could see him in a [rehab] game fairly quickly,” said Joe Girardi before the game. Soriano is eligible to come off the disabled list on Wednesday.
- Eric Chavez‘s sore back is still bothering him, but he’s feeling much better and is close to resuming workouts. I still wouldn’t count on him for the second half, anything he gives the team from here on out is a bonus.
- Damaso Marte is not ready to face hitters but is still throwing bullpen sessions. Pedro Feliciano is still shut down with soreness in his shoulder.
Of course, the biggest injury news concerns Alex Rodriguez‘s torn meniscus. He’s getting a second opinion today, but it seems like everyone involved thinks having surgery now is the best course of action. Like I said yesterday, I’m on board with that.
David Robertson, All-Star (UPDATE: Sabathia too)
Posted by: | CommentsMichael Kay just announced during this afternoon’s broadcast that David Robertson has been named to the All-Star Game as a replacement for David Price, who apparently withdrew. Awesome, congrats David.
Update: CC Sabathia was also named to the All-Star Team as a replacement for Jamie Shields, though he can’t pitch in the game because he’s starting today. Alexi Ogando has taken Sabathia’s spot. Good job of watering down the value of being an All-Star, MLB.
Game 88: Before the break
Posted by: | CommentsToday marks the end of the first half of the season, only if you ignore the fact that the halfway point of the season came about the week ago. A win today would guarantee that the Yankees head into the All-Star break no worse than tied for first in the AL East in the loss column, and no worse than five losses up on the Wildcard spot. Considering the doubt surrounding the rotation coming into the season, it’s tough to be disappointed with that. Here’s the starting nine…
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF
Andruw Jones, RF
Eduardo Nunez, 3B
CC Sabathia, SP
First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm ET and can be seen on YES. enjoy.













