Archive for July, 2011
Mariano Rivera’s Road Woes
Posted by: | CommentsMariano Rivera blew his fourth save of the season yesterday, nearly as many as he blew last year (five) and more than he blew in 2008 and 2009 combined (three). All four blown saves have come on the road and three of the four have been one-run leads, the other a two-run lead. Unsurprisingly, Rivera’s home/road splits are pretty drastic this season…
Of course stats like ERA and opponent’s AVG/OBP/SLG don’t tell the whole story. Those are output stats, they just tell us about the results and not what led to them. The process is what is really important, and Rivera’s underlying performance shows us there’s nothing to be concerned about…
The sample size is essentially the same in terms of batters faced, and Mo’s strikeout and walk numbers on the road are for all intents and purposes identical to his career numbers (8.21 K/9 and 1.80 uIBB/9). His ground ball rate is right in line with his rate since 2002 (53.4%), when the data started being recorded. The only significant difference between his home and road performance this year is the number of balls that are dropping in for hits, an astronomically high 43.9% away from Yankee Stadium. That’s almost 18% higher than his career average.
Furthermore, let’s look a little deeper at those four blown saves. Other than the first one against the Blue Jays on April 19th (a legit blown save that featured a double into the gap and some hard-hit singles), they were all of the death by a thousand cuts variety. The ninth inning on April 24th went walk, strikeout, strikeout, bloop single, ground ball past a diving Mark Teixeira into the corner for a double. The tying run scored but the second runner was thrown at the plate by several steps. One hard hit ball, and it was beat into the ground.
The May 18th blown save went ground ball out, single up the middle, single on a ground ball through the right side, sacrifice fly to tie, pop-out to end the inning. And then there was yesterday, which went strikeout, ground ball out, walk, single off the handle of the bat, single on a ground ball through the right side, ground ball through the shortstop’s legs, runner out at the plate. If Mo was giving up rockets all over the field and balls over the fence, I’d be concerned. Right now it’s just a case of sample size and dumb luck with ground balls having eyes more than anything.
It’s worth noting that Rivera’s trademark cutter is completely unchanged this year. The velocity is the same as it’s been over the last few seasons, comfortably in the low-90′s, and the pitch is still getting three-plus inches of horizontal break and just north of five inches of vertical “drop.” Batters are swinging and missing at Mo’s cutter 7.8% of the time this season after whiffing at it 8.0% of the time over the last two years. There are no red flags here, so don’t bother worrying.
Series Preview: Cleveland Indians
Posted by: | CommentsIt feels like the Yankees just got done playing the Indians, doesn’t it? That four-game series ended three weeks ago today with a 1-0 win for the Tribe, but that was a little easier to swallow after the Yankees won the first three games.
What Have The Indians Done Lately?
Their molten hot start is a distant memory, but Cleveland has rebounded to win four of their last six games, all against NL competition (Diamondbacks and Reds) in NL parks. They’re six games over .500 at 44-38, and their +16 run differential is actually one of the better marks in the league.
Indians On Offense
The Tribe were struggling big time with the bats the last time these two clubs met, scoring just nine runs in the six games before that series started. The offense has come back to life though, and Cleveland has scored four or more runs in five of their last six games and five-plus runs in four of six. Travis Hafner is now off the disabled list, and he adds a huge bat (.341/.419/.563) to their middle of their lineup at designated hitter. The Indians lost the underperforming Shin-Soo Choo (.244/.333/.353) to a long-term thumb injury and benched the underwhelming Jack Hannahan (.213/.303/.333), replacing them with a Travis Buck (.272/.312/.398 vs. RHP)/Austin Kearns (.236/.286/.261 vs. LHP)/Shelley Duncan (.241/.293/.389 vs. LHP) platoon and top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall (.300/.300/.400 in five games), respectively. Otherwise it’s the same cast of characters we saw three weeks ago.
Michael Brantley has come back to Earth a bit as the leadoff man (.266/.330/.361), but Asdrubal Cabrera has assumed number three hitter duties and is still hitting the snot out of the ball (.291/.341/.496). Carlos Santana has started to add some power (.352 ISO in his last 15 games) to his OBP skills (16.4% walk rate, third best in baseball), and he’s being protected by the powerful (.222 ISO) but suddenly undisciplined (5.5% walk rate, half his career mark) Grady Sizemore. Those four plus Hafner represent the meat of their order, the guys Manny Acta relies on to produce runs night after night.
Matt LaPorta is on the disabled list, so Santana has been playing first while Lou Marson (.226/.272/.302) handles catching duties. Cord Phelps (.200/.280/.333 in limited time) and Orlando Cabrera (.262/.292/.353) are sharing the second base job. Overall, the Indians are essentially league average with a .319 wOBA, and they rely more on power (.145 ISO) and patience (8.3% walk rate) than speed (just 48 steals). Hafner and Santana are a scary 1-2 punch in the middle of the order, and you can’t ignore Asdrubal and Sizemore either. The other five guys can be pitched to, though.
Indians On The Mound
Monday, RHP Josh Tomlin (vs. A.J. Burnett): The clock struck midnight on Tomlin last month, as he’s followed up the 2.41 ERA in his first nine starts with a 5.86 ERA in seven starts since. The Yankees contributed to that 5.86 ERA by tagging him for six runs and a dozen hits in five innings a few weeks ago, though it’s worth noting he’s allowed just six runs total in three starts since. Tomlin isn’t flashy (88-91 mph fastball with a changeup and curve) and other than his walk rate (1.05 BB/9), nothing about his underlying performance stands out (5.08 K/9, 1.23 HR/9, 37.6% grounders).
Tuesday, RHP Carlos Carrasco (vs. CC Sabathia): Carrasco was the author of that 1-0 win three weeks ago, stymieing the Yankees with his four-pitch mix (low-90′s fastball, slider, changeup, curveball) over seven shutout innings. His 3.54 ERA is right in line with his 3.46 FIP and 3.65 xFIP, though his strikeout rate is unimpressive (5.74 K/9) and he gets by on limiting walks (2.20 BB/9) and keeping the ball in the park (0.67 HR/9, 49.8% grounders). Carrasco has a pretty drastic platoon split, especially in terms of strikeouts and walks, and he’s on a nice little roll at the moment (more than one run allowed in just one of his last five starts). Hopefully seeing him for the second time in three weeks gives the Yankees a bit of an advantage.
Wednesday, RHP Justin Masterson (vs. Phil Hughes): Masterson is one guy the Yankees didn’t see three weeks ago, but they’re certainly familiar with him from his Red Sox days. He’s a low arm slot sinker (low-90′s)/slider (low-80′s) guy with a considerable platoon split, and he relies way more on ground balls (55.2%) than strikeouts (6.33 K/9). After a rough stretch at the end of May, Masterson has allowed no more than two earned runs in his last five starts, though high pitch counts kept him from going deep in the game.
Bullpen: Cleveland’s bullpen is sneaky good. Closer Chris Perez is actually their worst late-game reliever (3.64 FIP thanks to a K/BB ratio hovering around 1.00), and they just welcoming him back off the bereavement list. Right-hander Vinny Pestano (2.26 FIP, 12.62 K/9) and left-handed Tony Sipp (7.68 K/9, 4.77 FIP because of homer issues) are death on same-side hitters (.123/.240/.200 vs. RHB and .095/.191/.238 vs. LHB, respectively), and Rafael Perez gives them another solid option against lefties (.219/.250/.250). Side-arming righty Joe freakin’ Smith (.302 FIP) has a fluke reverse split this year (.293/.369/.320 vs. RHB but .138/.212/.172 vs. LHB) that is nothing like the rest of his career. It’s more sample size than anything, he spent some time on the disabled list earlier this year.
The rest of the pen is filled out with righties Chad Durbin (3.93 FIP), Frank “Pee Wee” Herrmann (4.22 FIP), and Josh Judy (just three innings so far). It’s a relief corps best used in matchup situations (especially late in the game) considering the platoon splits that Sipp, Smith, and the lefty Perez are rocking. Pestano is effective against everyone, and the righty Perez is the definition of a cardiac closer.
Recommended Indians Reading: The DiaTribe and Let’s Go Tribe
Fan Confidence Poll: July 4th, 2011
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 5-1 (35 RS, 10 RA)
Season Record: 50-32 (433 RS, 312 RA, 54-28 pythag. record), two up in loss column
Opponents This Week: @ Indians (three games, Mon. to Weds.), vs. Rays (four games, Fri. to Sun.)
Top stories from last week:
- The week started with a scheduled off day, but the Yankees showed no rust when they depansted Zack Greinke and the Brewers in their series opener on Tuesday. Russell Martin helped them to a win with a big homer the next day, and CC Sabathia finished off the sweep with 13 strikeouts on Thursday.
- The second leg of the Subway Series took place over the weekend, and Eduardo Nunez powered the Yankees to a win in the opener. Bartolo Colon returned from the disabled list to throw a gem on Saturday, but a walk-off loss ended the seven game winning streak yesterday.
- Injury News: Derek Jeter played in two rehab games and will rejoin the team today. Phil Hughes made a rehab start and will start on Wednesday. Eric Chavez strained his back while rehabbing his foot and will be out a little longer than expected. Both Pedro Feliciano and Rafael Soriano threw off a mound. Eduardo Nunez has a tight hamstring, but it’s nothing major.
- Ivan Nova lost the numbers game and was sent to the minors for Hughes. Lance Pendleton has temporarily taken his place on the roster. Brian Gordon (not Hector Noesi) was sent down for Colon.
- Carlos Silva was released while Sergio Mitre was re-acquired from the Brewers for cash. Logan Kensing was signed to a minor league deal.
- Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera, and Martin were all named to the AL All-Star Team. The first four were voted in as starters.
- The Yankees signed second round pick Sam Stafford and 13th rounder Justin James. They also inked Dominican third baseman Miguel Andujar and have interest in Mexican right-hander Roberto Osuna.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Jeter rehab ends with a Trenton loss
Posted by: | CommentsShaeffer Hall has been promoted to Triple-A Scranton as Kei Igawa goes back down to Double-A Trenton.
Double-A Trenton (8-1 loss to Altoona)
Derek Jeter, SS: 1 for 2, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 E (throwing) – played six innings in the field, and the one hit was a bunt single … the Yankees announced that his rehab is over, and he will rejoin the team tomorrow
Yadil Mujica, SS: 0 for 1
Ray Kruml, LF & Rob Lyerly, 1B: both 1 for 4 – Krum drove in a run … Lyerly struck out twice
Corban Joseph, 2B, Bradley Suttle, 3B & Melky Mesa, CF: all 0 for 4 - Suttle struck out twice, Mesa thrice … Suttle also committed a throwing error
Jose Pirela, 2B: 2 for 4
Damon Sublett, LF: 0 for 2, 1 R, 2 BB
Jose Gil, C: 1 for 3, 1 BB, 1 K – remember when he was tearing the cover off the ball? not so much these days
Manny Banuelos, LHP: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K, 1 WP, 6-0 GB/FB – 68 of 98 pitches were strikes (69.4%) … that’s way too many pitches for 14 outs, he’s gotta sharpen that up, been a problem almost all season … he was up to 94 though, so that’s good
Brad Halsey, LHP: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 2-1 GB/FB
Alan Horne, RHP: 1.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 WP, 2 HB, 2-1 GB/FB
Pat Venditte, SwP: 1.1 IP, zeroes, 3 K
Open Thread: Postgame Notes Edition
Posted by: | CommentsToday’s loss was all about physical errors. Ramiro Pena misplayed two grounders (the second one jumped on him a bit and hit the heel of his glove), Mariano Rivera walked Jason Bay with two outs to start the ninth inning rally, and Luis Ayala put two of the three men he faced on base without forcing them to swing the bat. Boone Logan came in and essentially got out of the inning (though Carlos Beltran struck out on a total hanger, got away with one), but Pena didn’t take care of business behind him.
“[We] move forward,” said Joe Girardi after the game, “we still won the series.” The skipper isn’t going to go out of his way to talk to Pena about what happened, and his outlook was essentially that: move forward. The Yankees just lost their first game in a week and a half because Rivera blew a save, not exactly a regular occurrence. It sucks, but they’re not going to dwell on it and frankly I’m not either. They’re playing too well. It happens.
- As for Phil Hughes, he will in fact start Wednesday and the Yankees only considered two options to accommodate him: a six-man rotation and demoting Ivan Nova to Triple-A. The bullpen wasn’t a consideration for Nova because it takes him a too long to warm up and also because (hypocrite alert!) it wasn’t the best thing for his development. He’ll start for Triple-A Scranton and focus on his slider and changeup. “He handled it like a man, a professional,” said Girardi when asked how Nova took the news.
- No official plan for Derek Jeter because Double-A Trenton hasn’t played. They were in a rain delay earlier and should be starting the game right about now, I believe. Girardi hopes Eduardo Nunez‘s hamstring will be well enough to play tomorrow, should he be needed.
- Girardi argued when Russell Martin was tagged out in that seventh inning run down because he didn’t think he was tagged. Third base ump Brian Knight told him the tag was applied, Girardi asked him to get help, then second base ump Jerry Layne told him Martin was out of the baseline. Okay then.
- Apparently the Yankees were originally told the game was going to start at 4pm ET, then at 2pm ET they were told they were starting at 2:30pm ET. That’s why Freddy Garcia was still warming up when the Mets took the field. The umpires and Terry Collins were aware that he needed the extra time.
- Mark Teixeira is not going to participate in the Homerun Derby and assumed he wasn’t going to make the actual All-Star Team because of the talent at first base. Can’t say I blame him for wanting to spending the time off with his family and not making the long flight for the one event.
- If anyone cares, Jose Reyes is day-to-day with a Grade I hamstring injury. No timetable, it’s just a wait-and-see thing. He felt great this morning though. Basically the best case for the Mets. As for R.A. Dickey, he originally hurt his glute in batting practice a few days ago. Wooo NL baseball.
That’s pretty much it. The Yankees are off to Cleveland now and I assume Jeter will be there to meet them, barring something unexpected in Trenton. The loss sucked, especially since it was to the stupid Mets and I’ll have to listen to my stupid family about it for at least one day, but they weren’t going undefeated the rest of the season. I refuse to get worked up over the end of a seven game win streak.The Dodgers and Angels will play tonight on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball (Billingsley vs. Santana), so watch that and forget all about this game. Talk about that or anything else here.
Yankees looking for lefty relief, but not interested in Royce Ring
Posted by: | CommentsVia Joel Sherman, the Yankees are looking everywhere for left-handed bullpen help, but they’re “probably not” interested in Royce Ring. Ring just opted out of his minor league contract with the Mariners and pitched with the Yankees briefly last season. Boone Logan has improved over the last ten days or so and Pedro Feliciano is now throwing (lightly) off a mound in Tampa, but they can’t really count on him coming back. Certainly not anytime soon.
IFA: Yankees signed Miguel Andujar for $750,000
Posted by: | CommentsVia Pedro J. Briceño, the Yankees have signed Dominican third baseman Miguel Andujar for $750,000. The 16-year-old was considered one of their top targets during this international free agent signing period, and is said to have “good bat speed, an advanced righthanded swing and has shown the ability to hit both fastballs and offspeed pitches.” Here’s some video.
Game 82: Going for the sweep
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees have won seven in a row including the last two against the Mets, so it’s time to get greedy and finish off the sweep before heading to Cleveland. R.A. Dickey flummoxed them with the knuckleball once already this season (one run in six innings back in May), but hopefully seeing for the second time will do the trick. Here’s the lineup…
Brett Gardner, LF
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Russell Martin, C
Ramiro Pena, SS
Freddy Garcia, SP
First pitch is scheduled for 1:04pm ET, but that’s not going to happen. The tarp is still on the field, so there will be some kind of delay. How long? Your guess is as good as mine. Whenever the game does start, you’ll be able to watch on YES locally or TBS nationally. Enjoy.
Yankees send Nova to Triple-A, recall Pendleton
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees announced that they have sent Ivan Nova to Triple-A Scranton and recalled Lance Pendleton. That’s a definite precursor to Phil Hughes rejoining the rotation this week (likely Wednesday), Pants Lendleton just gives them an extra bullpen arm in the meantime. It’s not fair, but dems the breaks. Nova will continue to work as a starter and will inevitably be needed later this season, so we’ll see him again.












