Archive for July, 2011
Scouting The Trade Market: LOOGY’s
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees’ perpetual search for a reliable left-handed reliever continues right before the trade deadline despite the millions and millions of dollars they’ve poured into players they thought were the solution. Part of the problem is that they’re chasing a unicorn, consistent and reliable relief specialists just don’t exist. By nature, their job is a small sample, and weird stuff can happen in small samples. Relievers are volatile, it’s just the way it is.
But still, that won’t stop them from scouring the trade market for a LOOGY before Sunday’s deadline. George King wrote today that the Orioles and Cubs had scouts at Yankee Stadium for last night’s game, fueling speculation about interest in Mike Gonzalez and John Grabow. This doesn’t pass the sniff test though, it seems very unlikely that the Yankees (or any team) would give up someone off their big league roster for those two relievers. Let’s explore them anything just because they’re very much available and appear to fill a need. King throws the names of Will Ohman and Randy Choate into the ring as well, so let’s tackle them too…
Randy Choate, Marlins
Another lefty batters meets his demise.
Here’s the guy the Yankees needed to sign this past offseason, not Pedro Feliciano. Even if Feliciano didn’t get hurt and was able to pitch this year, Choate is still straight up better. He’s faced 62 left-handed batters this year and ten have reached base. Seven have gotten hits (just two extra-base hits, both doubles), two have walked, and one was hit by a pitch. That works out to a .121/.164/.155 batting line, and he also has 23 strikeouts and a 64.7% ground ball rate against same-side hitters. It’s not a total fluke, Choate’s been doing this since he resurfaced in 2009. Because he’s signed through next year for dirt cheap (two-year deal worth $2.5M total), the Marlins aren’t desperate to give him away. It’ll take a decent prospect to pry Choate from Florida.
Mike Gonzalez, Orioles
The Orioles’ fail at a lot of things, but giving Gonzalez two years and $12M was as bad as decisions get. He was hurt and ineffective last year, though at least this season he’s provided some value as a situational lefty. He’s held left-handed batters to a .229/.280/.357 batting line with 18 strikeouts and 51% ground balls in 75 plate appearances. The Yankees (or any team, really) could probably get him for next to nothing, just some salary relief and a Grade-C prospect, if that. It’s worth nothing that Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano are very close friends from their days with the Braves, so perhaps having a buddy around lightens Soriano up and helps him pitch better.
John Grabow, Cubs
Another ill-advised multi-year deal for a lefty reliever, Grabow is making $4.8M this season, the second year of his two-year, $7.5M deal. In return for that investment, the Cubbies have gotten a 6.00 ERA in 69 IP since the start of 2010. Grabow’s value comes as a pure LOOGY since he can’t get righties out. He’s held same-side hitters to a .238/.314/.365 batting line with just 11 strikeouts and 41.2% grounders in 71 plate appearances. He’s another guy the Yankees could probably acquire for little more than salary relief, but there’s a reason he’d come some cheap. He’s just not very good.
Will Oh(tobeleft-handed)man
Will Ohman, White Sox
The White Sox are a bad week away from blowing up the team, and Ohman is one of their few marketable pieces. He’s holding lefties to a .204/.283/.315 batting line with 20 strikeouts and 41.2% grounders in 61 plate appearances this year, but his contract is a bit of red flag. Ohman is making just $1.5M this year but is under contract for $2.5M next season as well. He’s not a rental, and although that’s not necessarily a deal-breaker, it’s less than ideal. The Yankees have enough money tied up in lefties as it is, even with Kei Igawa and Damaso Marte coming off the books after the season.
Since I know people are going to ask, yes there’s also Matt Thornton. He’s been one of the game’s best relievers over the last few seasons regardless of handedness, and he’s managed to regain that form somewhat after an early season hiccup. Left-handers are hitting .302/.333/.377 off him this year, but they’ve had sub-.600 OPSes off him the last two years. Thornton is owed $5.5M in 2012 and 2013 before a $1M buyout of his $6M option for 2014 comes into play. He’s not young remember, that contract will take him through his age 37 season assuming the option is declined. It’s easy to forget that you’re not trading for 2008-2010 Matt Thornton, you’re trading for the 2011-2013 version.
* * *
The Yankees still have J.C. Romero tucked away in Triple-A, and he’s performed well in limited action. He’s faced 13 lefties for Scranton and just two have reached base (a hit and a walk) against three strikeouts and eight ground outs (that means zero fly balls). Romero has been effective against lefties in recent years, in between DL stints that is. I’m kinda surprised they haven’t called him up yet just to see what they have before deciding to pull the trigger on a trade, but it’s entirely possible his stuff and command are awful and the numbers against lefties in Triple-A are the function of a small sample size. Either way, I expect their to be a new lefty reliever on the roster one week from today.
Derek Jeter claims his place atop the lineup
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
While Derek Jeter rehabbed his strained calf, a contingency of Yankees fans realized their greatest desire. For about three weeks Brett Gardner hit in the leadoff spot, and as expected he handled it with aplomb. In that span, from June 14th through July 3rd, Gardner came to the plate 70 times and hit .267/.362/.383, stealing seven bases and scoring 13 runs. His combination of on-base skills and speed made him a better fit as the leadoff hitter than Jeter, who had a .324 OBP and had stolen just seven bases in his 293 PA before getting hurt.
Alas, we all knew that Jeter would resume his duties as leadoff hitter once he returned from the disabled list. As Joe Girardi, king of tautology, is fond of saying, “he’s our leadoff hitter.” Every day, it seemed, people questioned why Gardner wasn’t hitting atop the lineup. The answer to that question was also tautological: he’s Derek Jeter. It became pretty clear that Jeter would own the role for the rest of the season if not beyond, OBP be damned.
For now, that’s not such a bad thing. Jeter went 0 for 4 on his first day back, but then he started to see some of the hits fall in on his way to 3,000. It seemed as though he slowed down after that, but that might just be perception. In reality he has come back with a fury since returning from the DL, going 23 for 71 with six doubles, a triple, and two homers — .324/.385/.521. In other words, he has, at least for the last three weeks, earned his spot atop the lineup.
In fact, things have gotten quite better since a slow April, during which Jeter hit .250/.311/.272. In 268 PA since then he has hit .282/.347/.402. That’s not quite up to par with Gardner’s .316/.394/.418 since the same date, but it certainly paints Jeter’s season in a better light. They’re leaving some base runners on the table, and they’re definitely losing a bit in the speed department, but having Jeter atop the order isn’t quite the abomination it’s been made out to be.
Just after Jeter’s recorded his 3,000th hit, Girardi went on to defend the captain. “Is he hitting .320 like he did in 2009? No, he’s not. But are you convinced that he can’t hit .320 in the second half?” He still has a while to go in the second half, but so far Jeter has answered the bell. At one point I might have answered yes, I’m convinced that he can’t hit .320 in the second half. A sample of just 78 PA shouldn’t sway my opinion, but I can’t help but think back to that old tautology. He’s Derek Jeter.
The Cavalry Is Comin’
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(AP Photo/David Goldman)
We’re all getting anxious as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches, but the Yankees are going to make a pair of pretty significant acquisitions before Sunday’s deadline. Later today they’re (likely) going to reinstate Eric Chavez to the active roster after 81 days on the disabled list with a bone bruise in his foot (and various setbacks). A day or two later, Rafael Soriano will join the bullpen after 73+ days on the shelf with an inflamed elbow ligament. No, neither fills the team’s biggest need (a legit #2 starter), but they’re definite upgrades to the roster.
Chavez tore the cover off the ball (.333/.391/.571) in six minor league rehab games last week (not that it means anything), and will presumably replace Brandon Laird on the roster. Expecting him to hit like he did before the injury (.303/.410/.424 with six walks and just three strikeouts) is probably unrealistic, but he gives the team a legit left-handed bat off the bench (sorry, Chris Dickerson) and if nothing else, figures to put together better at-bats than Laird or Ramiro Pena or even Eduardo Nunez. With Alex Rodriguez on the shelf for the next few weeks, Chavez’s presence will be even more helpful, though I wouldn’t recommend playing him everyday. Even just splitting time with Nunez improves the offense.
The bullpen has been surprisingly solid during Soriano’s (and Joba Chamberlain‘s) absence, but it’s not just because David Robertson has been the best reliever in the American League. Cory Wade has emerged as a legit seventh inning option and Hector Noesi has quietly morphed into a 2011 version of 2009 Al Aceves. Soriano will inevitably assume eighth inning duties once activated, and that’s probably what’s best for the team. That will allow Joe Girardi to be a bit more liberal with Robertson, using him to wiggle out of the jams in the seventh (or even sixth) inning while Soriano gets the easy job of starting an inning clean. That leaves Wade to fill in the gaps with Noesi and Luis Ayala around for whatever else has to be done. Bullpen chaining is great, Soriano’s not replacing Robertson, he’s replacing the last guy on the staff (Steve Garrison, I assume) and adding depth to the relief corps.
Now don’t get me wrong, Soriano was pretty bad before getting hurt. He walked eleven and struck out ten in 15 IP, giving up 15 hits and nine runs. Yesterday’s rehab game was the first time since Opening Day that he had a 1-2-3 inning. His velocity was reportedly back to 93-94 mph over the last two days, which we didn’t see much of earlier this season. I’m pretty confident in saying that his early season performance is not his true talent level. Soriano’s been performing at a high level for a number of years, the problem has just been staying on the field. Pitching to his career averages (3.29 FIP and 3.72 xFIP) is all I’m hoping for. That’s a damn valuable reliever.
Of course, the whole “staying on the field” thing is far from certain with these two. Chavez has been on the DL every year since 2006 and Soriano has still never gone three straight years without getting hurt. That’s life though, just because they aren’t guaranteed to stay healthy over the final 62 games of the season doesn’t mean they can’t be valuable. There is no bench help on the trade market that comes with a reasonable price (Ty Wigginton? hah), and you’re not going to find a potential shutdown reliever for anything less than a pretty good prospect. The Yankees are getting those two pieces back at zero cost* this week, and that’s two fewer things they have to worry about before 4pm ET on Sunday.
* That’s not 100% true, the Yankees will need to clear one 40-man roster to accommodate these two coming off the 60-day DL. I have to think Jeff Marquez is the first guy on the chopping block.
M’s get no help from rain, Yanks hand Seattle 16th straight loss
Posted by: | CommentsFelix Hernandez deserves better than this. Boy are these Mariners bad, like cover your eyes and hide the women and children bad. They had no business being on a big league field Monday night; the Yankees completely outplayed them in every facet of the game after the nearly two hour long rain delay. The result was a 10-3 win and Seattle’s 16th loss in a row. Yes, 16th.
Tex eyes.
An Unearned Rally
Umpires these days are pretty terrible, but there are few worse than Balkin’ Bob Davidson. He blew a call at first base in this game that didn’t directly lead to the loss for Seattle, but it certainly didn’t help. Russell Martin was on first base with one out after Adam Kennedy whiffed on his ground ball at third, then he broke for second on Andruw Jones‘ dinky little infield grounder. Justin Smoak fielded the ball and looked at second before turning around and flipping the ball to Jason Vargas as he covered first. Jones hustled and beat him to the bag by a fraction of a second, or at least Davidson thought so. The replays showed that Andruw was out, but instead the inning lived on.
Eduardo Nunez was the next batter and he singled, driving in Martin. Brett Gardner singled through the drawn-in infield one batter later to drive in Jones. Derek Jeter hit a ground ball to second but Dustin Ackley’s throw home a) was offline, and b) hit the bat in front of the plate and deflected away from catcher Miguel Olivo. Nunez would have scored anyway, but it was still pretty funny. Curtis Granderson then drove a ball to center for a sac fly, plating Gardner. Mark Teixeira singled through the left side to drive in Jeter. Robinson Cano finally ended the madness with a ground ball, but the inning should have been over much sooner. Kennedy has to make the play on Martin’s ground ball, and the play at first was blown. Fallacy of the pre-determined outcome, yadda yadda yadda, but the game was essentially over after four unearned runs scored in the inning (five total).
Freddy Sez: Quick Outs
For all the complaining about the Yankees’ offense, watching the Mariners’ offense is an eye-opening experience. I didn’t know lineups got that bad. These guys hack at everything and refuse to work the count and chase bad pitches and will do so until the game is over. Ackley is the only guy on the team with a plan at the plate that is capable of executing it right now. There’s one big leaguer in the lineup. One.
Freddy Garcia was junk-balling them to death and the Mariners played right along; 22 (!!!) of the 31 batters he faced saw three pitches or less. He did allow eight hits in 7.2 IP but a lot of that came after the game was blown open and he started pitching to the score. Don’t laugh, Freddy threw a lot more fastballs and pounded the zone with the big lead in an effort to get quick outs, and it worked. I still don’t trust him against good offenses, but Garcia has already exceeded every possible expectation this year and keeps doing it every time out.
HOPE Week is always a great week.
Leftovers
That five-run fourth inning cemented the win, but the Yankees did start the inning with a 3-1 lead. Teixeira hit a two-run homer in the first inning, driving the ball into the second deck in left field after Granderson’s walk. You don’t see many balls hit there, it was quite a shot. Jeter also chipped in a homer, believe it or not, a solo shot the other way in the third. It was his fourth long ball of the season, and he now has many homers in the Bronx has he does in Texas. They tacked on another run in the sixth via a Gardner double and another Granderson sacrifice fly.
There was a lot of offense as you’d expect in a blowout win, so let’s recap … Jeter had two hits, the homer and a triple later in the game. Derek had 12 extra-base hits in 62 games before going on the disabled list, but he’s already got nine in his 17 games back. He’s hitting .324/.385/.521 since coming back. Maybe he isn’t dead yet after all. Grandy had a hit, a walk, and the two sac flies. Tex had a pair of hits including the homer. Nick Swisher singled and both Nunez and Gardner singled and doubled. Cano was the only one without a hit. For shame.
Jeter did his patented jump throw play in the second inning, but the replay showed that Kennedy was safe at first. Second time in two days the first base ump blew the call on the jump throw, but hey, I’m not complaining. Bob Davidson is just a terrible umpire.
Congrats to Steve Garrison for making his big league debut. He retired the last two batters of the game on a line out and a fly ball, which I’m sure felt good after seven years in the minors. Boone Logan also struck out the only two men he faced. The Yankees are 20 games over .500 for the first time all season.
Box Score, WPA Graph & Standings
MLB.com has the box score and video highlights, FanGraphs the other stuff, and ESPN the updated standings.
Up Next
Hopefully it won’t rain Tuesday night for game two of the series, when Doug Fister gets the ball against CC Sabathia. RAB Tickets can get you to the Stadium if you’re interested in going.
Montero homers as Soriano’s rehab likely comes to an end
Posted by: | CommentsIn case you missed it earlier, the Yankees have signed fourth rounder Matt Duran for $335,000. Ivan Nova threw a simulated game tonight and all went well, so he’s on track to start one the games in this Saturday’s doubleheader. Tyler Austin hasn’t played in a while because of an injured hand, and he had an MRI today. No word on the results or what the actual injury is. Dan Brewer is close to coming back from his hamstring problem. Austin Romine was out of the lineup again tonight (second night in a row), but apparently he’s healthy and there’s “nothing brewin’“. Speculate at your own risk.
Triple-A Scranton (15-1 win over Syracuse)
Rafael Soriano, RHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2-0 GB/FB – eight of his 11 pitches were strikes … he was at 94 mph last night and then 93 mph tonight, so he bounced back well … he’s heading back to New York tonight, and said he doesn’t care what his role is going forward … oh, and this was his first 1-2-3 inning since Opening Day
Kevin Russo, 3B: 4 for 6, 2 R, 2 RBI – 14 for his last 28 with four doubles
Greg Golson, CF: 2 for 5, 1 R, 1 K, 1 HBP
Jesus Montero, C: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP – fourth homer in his last 14 games … this one went out to left-center field
Mike Lamb, DH: 3 for 4, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB
Jorge Vazquez, 1B: 2 for 4, 2 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB – just his second homer since June 9th
Jordan Parraz, RF: 1 for 5, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K
Austin Krum, LF: 1 for 5, 2 R, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K
Luis Nunez, 2B: 1 for 3, 2 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB
Doug Bernier, SS: 3 for 4, 1 R, 1 2B, 1 3B, 4 RBI, 1 BB -
Adam Warren, RHP: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 2-6 GB/FB – just 29 of 61 pitches were strikes (47.5%), though he hit 93 mph at least once … he’s the backup plan in case Nova can’t go on Saturday, so this was a short start by design
George Kontos, RHP: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 14 of 21 pitches were strikes (66.7%)
J.C. Romero, LHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 1 K, 2-0 GB/FB – ten pitches, seven strikes
Logan Kensing, RHP: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2-1 GB/FB – 23 of 37 pitches were strikes (62.2%)
Game 100: Triple digits
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(Photo Credit: Flickr user notladj via Creative Commons license)
It’s always a sad day when we get to game number 100. The season has been halfway over for three weeks now, but this seals it. There are just 62 games left in the season after tonight, and that seems like a small number. I’m not ready for the season to be over. Here’s the lineup…
Derek Jeter, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, DH
Russell Martin, C
Andruw Jones, RF
Eduardo Nunez, 3B
Brett Gardner, LF
Freddy Garcia, SP
It’s been raining pretty much all day, but not a torrential downpour or anything like that. Just a constant rain. I have no idea if they’ll be able to play tonight, but the tarp is still on the field. Since the Mariners do not come back to town this year, you can bet they’re going to wait this out as long as possible. If the game is played, you can watch it on YES. Enjoy.
Update: First pitch is scheduled for 9pm ET, supposedly.
Nova will test ankle in simulated game tonight
Posted by: | CommentsVia Joel Sherman, Ivan Nova will test his injured right ankle in a simulated game tonight. If all goes well, he’ll start one of the games in Saturday’s doubleheader against the Orioles. If it doesn’t, then Adam Warren will get the call. Nova was hit by a comebacker in this first start with Triple-A Scranton earlier this month, but he felt some lingering pain in the joint last time out and was placed on the disabled list as a precaution. He’s had six days off since then, so it’s good to see him get back on the bump so soon.
Update: Donnie Collins hears that Nova’s simulated game went well and he is on track for Saturday’s doubleheader. Good news.
Trade Rumor Roundup: Ubaldo, Gio, Kuroda
Posted by: | CommentsThe deadline is coming up rather quickly, so let’s round up the latest from Yankeeland…
- Unless a big-time ace caliber starter hits the market, the Yankees have made it clear to other teams that they will not trade Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and Austin Romine. (Joel Sherman)
- The Yankees would, however, consider dealing Montero for Ubaldo Jimenez, but the Rockies want multiple top prospects for their ace. New York is also concerned about his inconsistency, arm action, and the NL-AL transition. Colorado is out of it (11 games back now), but they have little reason to move the young and cost-controlled Jimenez, who’s one of the better pitchers in baseball. (Joel Sherman)
- Executives from other clubs believe the Yanks will end up trading for a left-handed reliever at some point this week. We heard about their interest in Craig Breslow over the weekend. (Jon Paul Morosi)
- The Yankees would “pay big” to get Gio Gonzalez from the Athletics, but Oakland is still refusing to talk about the lefty. Gio threw 111 pitches while giving up six runs in 4.2 IP against the Yanks yesterday, but he has a 3.57 FIP on the season. He’s young (26 in Sept.), left-handed, throws hard, misses bats, and is cheap (still in his pre-arbitration years), but the walks and lack of success away from the Coliseum are scary. (Sherman).
- The Yankees remain interested in Hiroki Kuroda but have not had any recent discussions with the Dodgers about his availability. The 36-year-old right-hander has a full no-trade clause (and wants compensation to waive it) and Rosenthal says he’s keeping his options open, but other reports indicate that he will not approve a trade to the east coast. Kuroda’s got a 3.76 FIP this season, which is actually his worst since coming to the U.S., but he’s pitched very well over the last two months and makes sense for New York. (Ken Rosenthal & Bob Klapisch)
Scouting The Trade Market: Edwin Jackson
Posted by: | CommentsThe trade deadline is just six days away now, so if the Yankees are going to make a move for a starting pitcher, it’s going to happen soon. We’ve been highlighting potential trade candidates for weeks now and we’ll do another one this afternoon: Edwin Jackson of the White Sox. Chicago is 49-50 with a -2 run differential this year, but they’re still just 4.5 games back of the AL Central lead. They’ve won five of eight since the All-Star break but are just 9-9 in July, and they haven’t been within three games of the division lead since mid-April. A healthy John Danks gives them six starters and one very nice trade chip to dangle. It makes sense that it would be the impending free agent.
Jackson is no stranger to being dealt, having been traded four times overall and three times in the last two and a half years. He was part of the three-team trade that brought Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, going from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks before being traded to the ChiSox at the deadline last year. Does that mean the clubs that had him didn’t like him and got rid of him, or does it mean that so many other teams wanted him? Choose your own narrative and we break down the facts…
The Pros
- It seems like Jackson’s been around forever, but he’s still just 27 (28 in September). His career is progressing like it should be; he’s getting better every year. His FIP (3.20 this season) has improved every season since he became a full-time starter in 2007. His xFIP (3.41) and K/BB ratio (2.49) have gotten better every year since 2008. Jackson owns career bests in walk (2.74 uIBB/9) and homer (0.59 HR/9) rates this year, and you can see that just about everything is trending in the righty direction at his year-by-year graphs page on FanGraphs.
- Jackson has the kind of power stuff the Yankees typically covet. His fastball sits in the mid-90′s and has his entire career, and he’ll also use a high-80′s slider and a mid-80′s changeup. It’s worth noting that the ChiSox and pitching guru Don Cooper had Jackson incorporate a two-seamer and use more offspeed pitches after trading for him last year. From 2008 until the trade last August, he threw basically no two-seamers and just 22.9% sliders and 8.1% changeups. Since the trade, he’s up to 8.4% two-seamers, 37.4% sliders, and 11.4% changeups. It’s probably not an accident that he’s done his best pitching with Chicago.
- Aside from a forearm strain way back in 2004, Jackson has never dealt with injury problems. He’s made at least 31 starts every year since 2007 and has thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last two years and 180 innings in each of the last three. He’s on pace to do it yet again this season. Jackson has spent the vast majority of his career in the AL and a good chunk of it in the AL East with the (Devil) Rays.
- Jackson is a pure rental is his salary is miniscule: $8.35M for the season, so approximately $2.78M after July 31st. He projects to be a Type-B free agent (though just barely), and it would be an easy choice to offer arbitration given his relatively low base salary.
The Cons
- Jackson is surrendering more line drives that ever, a career-high 23.5% of the time this season. That’s led to a .333 BABIP and 134 hits allowed in 121.2 IP. The number of hits allowed and his batting average against (.283) are both among the ten worse in the AL. His career BABIP is .309, so it’s not like there’s a huge regression coming.
- Despite the high-end stuff, Jackson has never really excelled at missing bats. His 7.18 K/9 this season is barely above the league average (7.02) and down from 7.78 K/9 last year. His 8.9% swing and miss rate is above the league average (8.5%) but down from last year (10.4%) and the year before (9.8%).
- Although he doesn’t really have much of a platoon split over his entire career, he does have one this year. It’s not huge but it exists, likely because of the increased emphasis of his slider, a pitch not normally used against batters of the opposite hand.
- Jackson has pitched in the postseason but not really. Tampa left him off their ALDS roster in 2008 then used him for just three relief appearances and 4.1 IP in the ALCS and World Series combined. That’s the only time he’s played on a serious contender, though he was part of the 2009 Tigers that played in a Game 163 against the Twins.
- Jackson is a Scott Boras client, so he will definitely test the market after the season. Acquiring him wouldn’t give a club the inside track to re-signing him this offseason based on Boras’ history. I’m sure he’ll be touting Jackson as the next Roy Halladay or something.
The Yankees had a scout in Cleveland yesterday, a game in which Jackson just so happened to be pitching. He gave up two runs in six innings but walked as many as he struck out (three). Chicago has also been keeping an eye on the Yankees’ farm system. There have been rumblings about a potential deal that would have Jackson going to the Cardinals as part of a package for Colby Rasmus, but who knows if that’s true. If it is, the Yankees have little chance of acquiring him because they won’t be able to top St. Louis’ offer. Well, they could, but it wouldn’t be the smartest thing they’ve done.
The ol’ trade value calculator values the remainder of Jackson’s season and Type-B free agent status at $11M or so, assuming he maintains his current performance level for 31 starts. Victor Wang’s research gives us an idea of what that would be in prospects, essentially a back-end of the top 100 guy or some combination of two Grade-B prospects. Austin Romine or David Phelps plus Corban Joseph? Gary Sanchez or Adam Warren plus J.R. Murphy? I’m just throwing names out there, the reality is that we have absolutely no idea what the White Sox would want in return. The calculator at least gives us a halfway decent estimation. Brian Cashman has fleeced Kenny Williams before, though I don’t think we can count on that happening again. Either way, Jackson seems like he’d been a rock solid pickup for the stretch run, a legitimate starter than you can count on to stay healthy and outperform the cache of back-end arms on the roster.
The Yankees unclutch hitting
Posted by: | CommentsIt seems odd to read complaints about an offense that had scored the second most runs per game in baseball. Yet as the deadline approaches and the Yankees make plans to shore up their roster, there have been an increasing number of calls for the Yankees to add a bat. Some of that might be the temporary frustration of an A-Rod-less lineup, but it does extend a bit beyond that. Something feels off about this offense. They put plenty of men on base, for sure — their .342 team OBP ranks second in the AL and is 20 points better than league average. But it seems as though they hit a degree worse once those men are on base.
We can look to fairly standard stats to debunk that idea. With men in scoring position the Yankees are hitting .261, which ranks fifth in the AL. Even better, they’re slugging .439 in those situations (.178 ISO). The added power helps ensure that runs score. Even when you add in situations when they have a man on first, they’re right around the same area. That is, while they might not be a super team with runners in scoring position, they are in no way deficient. When you put that many men on base in the first place, you’re going to score plenty of runs by being just above average with men on base.
Still, there’s some context lacking from the runners in scoring position stats. For instance, on Friday night the Yankees hit extremely well with runners in scoring position. But there came a point where all those extra runs were superfluous. That is, they were putting up numbers with men on base, but not in what would be considered clutch situations. The leverage in those situations was low. Thankfully, we have some numbers we can examine to help us mete out the higher pressure situations.
At FanGraphs there are leader boards and splits for almost everything. One thing I started checking this weekend, when researching an article on the Reds for ESPN, is how teams are performing in high-leverage situations. As it turns out, the Yankees are pretty poor in this regard. They rank 10th in the AL in both batting average (.244) and wOBA (.301) in high pressure situations. The Rays and Red Sox, by comparison, are their superiors, with .338 and .335 wOBAs in those same situations. In fact, the AL East takes the top three spots; the Blue Jays rank third with a .330 wOBA when it counts the most.
We can take this notion of high-leverage performance a step further, still, when we include WPA-based stats. There are two in particular I’ve grown to enjoy on a team level: WPA/LI and Clutch. WPA/LI basically strips leverage out of a team’s performance and gives you a context-neutral rating of a team’s offensive output — that is, how they hit, period, regardless of a situation’s leverage. The Yankees here rank third with a 3.54 WPA/LI, though they trail the Red Sox and Rangers by a considerable amount. But they’re about an equal degree ahead of the No. 4 team, the Tigers, while nine of the 14 AL teams have negative scores.
(On an individual level, Curtis Granderson leads the way, while Jorge Posada has been the worst on the team.)
The Clutch stat is similar in nature, but instead of comparing a team’s production to its context-neutral state, it compares overall performance to performance in high level situations. Here’s where the Yankees are at their worst. Their -3.65 Clutch score is dead last in the AL. This is in part because they hit so well overall; the Red Sox and Rangers are the second and third worst teams in terms of clutch. But when combined with their poor overall performance in clutch situations, it helps illustrate why there is a perception that the Yankees have underperformed this year. They have scored plenty of runs, but they’ve failed when a hit would have made a huge difference.
(Russell Martin actually has the best Clutch score on the team, followed by, gulp, Francisco Cervelli. Mark Teixeira is the trailer at -1.41, and A-Rod is pretty bad at -1.19. Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, and Robinson Cano round out the bottom five.)
In a way, a similar issue afflicted the Yankees last year. In 2010 they had a -2.50 Clutch score, fourth worst in the AL, while their WPA/LI was second best. It’s a bit different this time, though, as Alex Rodriguez led the way in Clutch last year. That is to say that Clutch score is not skill-based. Players will often regress to the -1 to 1 range if given enough time — even Captain Clutch himself has a 0.78 career Clutch score. Obviously high leverage situations have different effects on different players, but they normally don’t perform out of line with normal expectations. The problem is that the season has particular start and end dates, giving only a finite time for adequate regression.
There is a chance still for the Yankees offense to perform like the juggernaut it is on paper. Their numbers in high leverage situations stink now, but it’s not as though the team collectively wilts under pressure. In some cases, such as Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira, it might be a matter of approach. With others it could be as simple as dumb luck. The perception that they need a bat is understandable, and at DH they certainly could use some help. But what they need more than anything is for their current lineup to hit in high-leverage situations as they’re capable of normally. If that aspect of the game falls into place, the Yankees will have little to worry about in the final two months.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
